Werewolf CXXXI: Lone Wolf - Against the Darklords GAME OVER, EVERYBODY WINS - Page 13

CrimsonFox · 05-04-2011, 02:46 AM

Gee I mention your names and nothing?

I may as well go to sleep.

JAG · 05-04-2011, 02:50 AM

So with a fresh look at things and knowing (with high likelihood) that CR is good, I have a different idea for a candidate today. Looking at the CR voters from D1, dwardzala's vote stands out most since it pushed him to 4 to compete with DT. He also voted for Thomkal (known villager) early in the day. To add to this voting info making him look poor, there is also this circumstantial evidence:

1. I voted him early D1 but he never received a second vote.
2. He voted early for Thomkal D2 and never gave much indication of changing his vote or considering anyone else.
3. Danny's comment yesterday about Thomkal and he wouldn't think a wolf wouldn't jump to vote him if he was a villager...maybe the wolf was already on him.

Seems like a reasonable starting point for the day anyway.

Vote Dwardzala
2. Danny's comment regarding Thomkal

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 02:53 AM

Day One

6 Daddy Torgo - Autumn (70), Zinto (77), Lathum (78), Hoops (130), Danny (139), Mauboy (151)
5 Darth Vilus - Narcizo (71), MrBug (86) Chief Rum (93), JAG (103), Daddy Torgo (117)
3 mckerney - bhlloy (73), PackerFanatic (84) Thomkal (92)
4 Chief Rum - Crimson Fox (81), Jackal (85), Mckerney (101), dwardzala (106)

Day Two

6 Thomkal - Dwardzala (186), Mauboy (280), MrBug (324), Zinto (330), Danny (347), Chief Rum (356)
3 Chief Rum - JAG (253), Darth Vilus (240), Jackal (253)
5 MrBug - CrimsonFox (206), Narcizo (207), Bhlloy (236), Hoops (319), Thomkal (324)
1 JAG - PackerFanatic (213)
1 CrimsonFox - Lathum (220)

JAG · 05-04-2011, 02:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I like this group:
Zinto, bhlloy, PackerFanatic, DV, Lathum, JAG, Jackal, Narcizo.

I don't know anything about this group really. Some suspicious activity and some spidey sense. Some under the radar quietness. I want to start at the most suspicious sounding poster and voter to me.

VOTE Zinto

What would you like to know about me that you don't, other than more detail into my musical tastes?

You've got a pretty broad group there and some I think are rather low percentage choices (DV in particular, Jackal unless you think he's cunning or that both he and Mau are wolves which seems rather unlikely). In the end, I would be mildly surprised if there was a wolf on DT with the way the vote went, with the quick run up to three and then the run at the end of the day, so I don't see going after Zinto or Lathum without something more.

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 03:01 AM

JAG to be honest MrBug and/or you look like the best bets for a wolf at the moment but you're making a lot of sense about dwardzala. I'm going to read through and see what I make of it. Haven't had much of a time to digest or put my thinking cap on as I've been running hither and thither restarting servers this morning. In between the important work of compiling the voting list.

CrimsonFox · 05-04-2011, 03:05 AM

I do think either Zinto or Lathum are wolves. There was no danger to DT until hoops and Danny pulled the switcheroo. And I think it more because of how they act. Yeah the group is broad. I've been preoccupied with the scan business and not getting lynch myself to look at the people I mentioned.

But for a variety of reasons really.

There is the Danny/hoops/mckerney group that got trust boosts from day 1.

Oh yeah the DV thing. I remember that now.

So there's the me/bug/Chief/mauboy/jackal thing.

So are you really going to believe everyone above is clear?

I think Zinto/Lathum is a source of one wolf as I believe in spread out wolves and wolf on wolf action (bow chicka bowhowwwwwwwwl) is all the rage these days.

I think there's a wolf in the quiet ones (bhlloy/packerfanatic/dwardcala)

JAG and Narcizo - useful info a lot and...hmmm...I just don't know. But I like having you around so I wouldn't think of voting for you right now.

CrimsonFox · 05-04-2011, 03:11 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zgxf1xzRkQ&NR=1

JAG · 05-04-2011, 03:17 AM

The one-off scans are kind of like the Vegas game in that the people scanned are more likely to be cleared than the people scanning them, as it would be very risky for a wolf to try to pass along another wolf as cleared and take the chance of losing both wolves if they were found out. So that makes me feel reasonably good about CR and Jackal mores than the scanners, although it's tough to think Mau would be a wolf and cast the vote he did D1.

As for Zinto / Lathum, I kind of agree with bhlloy that Zinto usually comes off a bit wolfy, but like others I used to think that about until I kept being wrong, I need something more solid before I would consider voting him. As for Lathum, that's even more unlikely in my opinion. I absolutely do not see wolf Lathum pushing a fellow wolf to 3 votes D1 with villager options to vote for.

JAG · 05-04-2011, 03:24 AM

Anyway, yes, that's a lot of people that I don't see as likely wolves, which means I could be wrong, but my guess is there wouldn't be more than one wolf in my broad "low percentage" group and there are still candidates outside that group to explore, so I don't see imvestigating them until we take a few swings at more likely wolves. We got a really good gift D1.

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 03:24 AM

I still don't see any reason to chase DT voters. Yeah, wolf-on-wolf action and all but still. Seems like there's more obvious places to look.

Chief Rum · 05-04-2011, 03:40 AM

Narcizo has an excuse. The rest o'y'all need to go to sleep, fer Crissakes!

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 03:42 AM

Hey up Chief - got any ideas about where to look. You're one of the most trusted out there now so I'm interested in what you have to say.

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 03:42 AM

Wish I could get a chance to look through things again but people keep on ringing wanting stuff fixed, the selfish bostords!

JAG · 05-04-2011, 03:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I do think either Zinto or Lathum are wolves. There was no danger to DT until hoops and Danny pulled the switcheroo.

Just to reiterate on the above bolded, after Zinto / Lathum put their votes on DT, there was certainly a lot of danger to DT at that point with him having a 3-1-1-1 lead over the other candidates. The way the vote went from there to when the late DT run started, there were likely multiple wolves trying to drum up other candidates. If my suspicion about dwardzala is correct, that would be an additional reason to think they could be trying to up mckerney / CR / DV at that point. It was the actions between the 3-1-1-1 and the late DT run where there was a good chance for activity to save DT (as Narcizo pointed out in his early D2 analysis).

Chief Rum · 05-04-2011, 04:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Hey up Chief - got any ideas about where to look. You're one of the most trusted out there now so I'm interested in what you have to say.

I'm going to have to look at things closer right now, because I don't really have a confident guess. My gut, though, says that the village for the most part has targeted villagers and the wolves are content to let us cannabalize ourselves.

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708

So these are some prime players after this last vote, I might have missed one

hoopsguy
Narc,
Bhlloy
Mauboy

Co-incidentally all people who voted for you.

Suprised you didn't add Thomkal as a wolf who shows up villager when dead.

Bhlloy and me I can buy but hoops and mauboy? Really?

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Co-incidentally all people who voted for you.

Suprised you didn't add Thomkal as a wolf who shows up villager when dead.

Bhlloy and me I can buy but hoops and mauboy? Really?

D'oh! Sorry about that Bug. Just been looking through again and Mau didn't vote you. You've got to admit it was funny otherwise. Don't you?

Probably not.

JAG · 05-04-2011, 04:58 AM

Also to get this out there preemptively in case someone scanned me with Sixth Sense last night...if you're wondering how the scan got through when you saw my list of disciplines, I turned off Mindshield last night, with the idea that:

1. I would be a reasonable target of such a scan and
2. That if someone did scan me, they would be far more likely to be a villager than wolf, since a wolf would be a lot more likely to scan a more trusted target.

I'm glad Abe made the below post because it hadn't been mentioned yet in the thread that Mindshield could be turned off (I didn't know if it could until I PM'ed him yesterday about it).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

You can only use one action. Camouflage, Mindshield - these are not action but protections. You can turn them off and open yourself totally up, that's not a night action either. Also, Mind over Matter is a day action, and does not count against your night action. (And it must be submitted before 10 as well).

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 05:47 AM

I still think there must be another wolf vote on Darth Vilus. I realise that it's easier for me to think that because I know there's only two wolf candidates there. But dwardzala looks a good place to look as well. I'm going to look at those three.

Votes:
JAG - his vote day one pushes Vilus ahead of Torgo. Starts up with a vote on Chief Rum, and doesn't actually move despite claiming misgivings about Rum being a wolf. He picks up votes early in the day but Hoops moving off of him again seems to take him out of contention. I've got a decent amount of trust for Hoops (with the usual provisos about him being a good wolf) so I don't really read much into that. I know I made it two votes to MrBug yesterday but I'm a bit surprised that JAG didn't pick up more heat, which could be a minus.

MrBug - his vote day one pushes DV into a three-way tie one off of DT on 3. Day two he's pretty much a target from the start and acts in self-defence. If he's a wolf and a save is made then you're pretty much looking at Zinto being the one doing it. If that's the case Bug would have to have a pretty juicy role to warrant that sort of a save. You'd have to look earlier on in the day for wolf efforts to save with votes on Chief, JAG or Thomkal.

Dwardzalla - his vote day one is just as bad as JAG's if you think Chief is villager. Didn't attract any other votes which is a minus. Votes known villager early day two and disappears.

Gathering Information:
Not as important day three as day two but a MrBug vote tells us the most - were wolves maneuvering to save him early on, did Zinto save him? Plus if he's a villager we can put Chief in dark blue. JAG was kind of a target yesterday so we'll get some info. Dwardzalla we get very little info from, except if he comes up wolf now then JAG looks better.

Generally activity:
MrBug's activity seem strange to me. His reveal from the scan is useless and looks like the sort of thing a wolf would do to get trust. There's the whole uncertainty about who he scanned until after Crimson reveals that he scanned Chief as good, which is kind of dubious to me. But overall he gives the impression of a confused villager than a wolf with an agenda. Seems very eager to claim himself cleared but the wolves are going to have to have talked about this, specifically to avoid making the sort of mistake people thought Chief made so it's going to be fresher for them than anyone else.

JAG has been pretty helpful and seems to have come up with good ideas and thoughts. There's the whole "Kill Autumn" thing but that's hardly damning, same way as Danny being nked it doesn't automatically mean DV is a wolf. Seems very quick to drop the target DV line from yesterday and start in on dwardzala without commenting on Bug which could be a minus or not.

Dwardzala - yeah. No. Same boat as MrBug yesterday.

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 05:50 AM

Okay I really think we have one or two wolves in the three people I've looked at. I set my tie-breaker to least participation so I thin I'll go there again.

Vote Dwardzala

Some day it's got to work.

JAG · 05-04-2011, 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I still think there must be another wolf vote on Darth Vilus. I realise that it's easier for me to think that because I know there's only two wolf candidates there. But dwardzala looks a good place to look as well. I'm going to look at those three.

Votes:
JAG - his vote day one pushes Vilus ahead of Torgo. Starts up with a vote on Chief Rum, and doesn't actually move despite claiming misgivings about Rum being a wolf. He picks up votes early in the day but Hoops moving off of him again seems to take him out of contention. I've got a decent amount of trust for Hoops (with the usual provisos about him being a good wolf) so I don't really read much into that. I know I made it two votes to MrBug yesterday but I'm a bit surprised that JAG didn't pick up more heat, which could be a minus.

Only quibble I have is with the bolded line. During the day, Thomkal and Bug became more interesting to me and I almost switched on a couple occasions, but I was waiting most of the day for CR to post something that would tell me about him one way or another. When he finally did, I felt like he didn't have much to contribute other than, "I'm not a wolf, don't vote me." So even though my opinion of the other two dropped at points during the day yesterday, I didn't like the vibe I was getting from Chief along with my other reasoning (DT avoiding him D1) so I stuck it out there. Obviously I was wrong about 2 of 3 at least and possibly all of them, so not a stellar day.

As far as another wolf on DV, I agree it would seem pretty unusual if there isn't. I'm not sure what to make of Bug at this point, I don't understand some of his behavior, I don't feel great about his posts, yet somehow I don't feel strongly about voting him. I feel reasonably good about you just vibe-wise though what Danny said about not knowing how you act as a wolf is a reasonable point as I've never seen you as a wolf. Perhaps DT chose to vote DV instead of CR because there wasn't a wolf on DV but there was one on CR? I don't know, I'm less gung-ho on it than yesterday and more interested in CR voters D1 with the strong suspicion that he is good.

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 06:56 AM

I think Chief, Hoops and Autumn are the guys here who probably know most about what I'm like as a wolf. Autumn's the only one who's been a wolf with me. Actually I was a wolf with mau for a couple of days but I'd rather not bring up that debacle.

Narcizo · 05-04-2011, 06:56 AM

D'oh! I just did.

Thomkal · 05-04-2011, 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I can't help thinking that the scans aside from mine are bogus. Mauboy is the king of false reveals and so much about the timing of bug's scan bugs me. Hey! I didn't even mean that. And Chief's hysterics make me think he's a cunning of some sort.

And the other thing. Why did the other two come out with a reveal tonight. I failed my first attempt because I scanned autumn who died. Now did both mau and bug do the same? I don't think I trust this.

I somehow feel Thomkal just won.

Somehow I don't feel that way...

Danny · 05-04-2011, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

So with a fresh look at things and knowing (with high likelihood) that CR is good, I have a different idea for a candidate today. Looking at the CR voters from D1, dwardzala's vote stands out most since it pushed him to 4 to compete with DT. He also voted for Thomkal (known villager) early in the day. To add to this voting info making him look poor, there is also this circumstantial evidence:

1. I voted him early D1 but he never received a second vote.
2. He voted early for Thomkal D2 and never gave much indication of changing his vote or considering anyone else.
3. Danny's comment yesterday about Thomkal and he wouldn't think a wolf wouldn't jump to vote him if he was a villager...maybe the wolf was already on him.

Seems like a reasonable starting point for the day anyway.

Vote Dwardzala
2. Danny's comment regarding Thomkal

Pretty funny, I was going to make this exact point this morning and was going to vote Dward.

Danny · 05-04-2011, 08:12 AM

Not sure I am comfortable putting a third vote in a row there though. I like him as a candidate still, but may try and bring someone else in as a second candidate.

Danny · 05-04-2011, 08:24 AM

Vote Bhhloy

Looking at the votes, I think he makes a good second candidate.

The Jackal · 05-04-2011, 10:25 AM

Wow, a lot of posts and happenings in the wee hours. I think it's safe to say CR is clear! Though I really think we need one more scan on him.

Happily surprised that mau scanned me, though I do wonder how many animal kinships we have left. Sucks that two people went on CR the same night, even if that solidifies the idea that he's good.

Dward and bhlloy seem good candidates, as do JAG and Zinto. Going to get some errands in and then I'll be back to analyze the votes those people have made a bit closer.

MrBug708 · 05-04-2011, 10:38 AM

We know for certain that a scan will come up correct, right?

bhlloy · 05-04-2011, 10:53 AM

I want to explore Zinto more, he's playing a very under the radar game and the DT vote that he's getting his trust from is a potential wolf play. He had a key, key Thomkal vote on day 2. So really, I'm pretty surprised he's not getting more looks here.

Vote Zinto

PackerFanatic · 05-04-2011, 10:54 AM

I know I have been pretty quiet up to this point...after nearly blowing it last game, I have been watching intently from the sidelines (for better or worse, I suppose).

I think dward and bhhloy are the best options at this point, based on voting...but getting one more candidate out there would be a good idea too. I am still not totally sold on JAG (hence my vote not moving last night - that and the fact I wasn't on at deadline) so I might throw him out there, but I will wait to see how things pan out this aft.

Lathum · 05-04-2011, 11:27 AM

[quote=JAG;2465267]Just to reiterate on the above bolded, after Zinto / Lathum put their votes on DT, there was certainly a lot of danger to DT at that point with him having a 3-1-1-1 lead over the other candidates. QUOTE]

I agree with this. No way I put a third vote on a wolf. Admitidely I had no clue Zinto had voted, but I would have had a perfectly reasonable reason to move that vote and I chose to leave it. That has to be worth something.

JAG · 05-04-2011, 11:33 AM

As of Post 632:

2 dwardzala - JAG (602), Narcizo (620)
2 Zinto - CrimsonFox (600), bhlloy (630)
1 bhlloy - Danny (627)

Yet to vote: hoops, Lathum, mckerney, PackerFanatic, Chief Rum, Zinto, dwardzala, Bug, Mau, Jackal, DV

Lathum · 05-04-2011, 12:44 PM

Jag is the thread killer

Lathum · 05-04-2011, 12:46 PM

Vote JAckal

The Jackal · 05-04-2011, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote JAckal

So.. you think mau and I are both wolves? I'm obviously not 100% cleared but this is an odd vote in the scheme of things today.

The Jackal · 05-04-2011, 12:53 PM

Looking at the other candidates, now that I have time:

Zinto has 1 vote on a wolf, 1 vote on a known villager. Raises him up just slightly, as that second vote on DT could definitely have been a wolf on wolf vote, and he wouldn't be expecting Lathum to piggyback. Still, I don't know if it's enough to go his way today.

Dwardzala has a questionable looking day one vote, similar to JAG, and put forth the first vote on Thom day two, known villager.

bhlloy added mckerney (unknown) to the mix day one, and tacked on bug (unknown, but on the slightly trusted side for his scan) day two.

I think all three of these guys are good candidates, but going on gut between dwardz and bhlloy I'm feeling a little worse about bhlloy.

VOTE BHLLOY

The Jackal · 05-04-2011, 12:56 PM

I'll be in and out today, will try to be around at the deadline but with the Flyers I can't guarantee it.

Abe Sargent · 05-04-2011, 01:00 PM

As the remaining Kai in Sommerlund, your goal is to make it to the capital of Holmgard. For now, a more important goal is to survive.

Zinto · 05-04-2011, 01:16 PM

I do not believe that the DT vote should give me much trust to be honest it seems like many wolves are laying down an early vote to gain trust in most games. Also my vote on Thomkal looks bad but usually ties do not favor the village and if Bug is also a villager then I am not sure how much you can put into me moving my vote.

Zinto · 05-04-2011, 01:22 PM

I do not have a very good read on Bhlloy since he excuses me of being a wolf then I believe that he actually is a wolf trying to get my terrible villager butt lynched.

Dward has been quiet but that usually is his MO. The early vote on Thomkal looks worse now and I usually look at the early votes that stuck through out the day when I believe that two villagers where on the block.

I almost want to vote Lathum because my understanding of how he plays a villager is very in your face and confrontational while I feel that as a wolf he is much more quiet.

mauchow · 05-04-2011, 01:26 PM

Lathum what's up with that vote? You will be the only one on him so do the village a favor and change your vote.

Unless Kai lords are bad from your perspective....Smith.....

Zinto · 05-04-2011, 01:29 PM

I guess I should say on Lathum that his head doesn't seem to be in the game now that i see his vote on Jackal and think about it. Then again he could be like me and forgot who scanned and who got scanned.

Lathum · 05-04-2011, 01:34 PM

gah

Unvote Jackal

Was just looking at voting records and who was on a villager both days that people werent talking about

Lathum · 05-04-2011, 01:35 PM

Vote Thomkal

Zinto · 05-04-2011, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Thomkal

A day too late Lathum

The Jackal · 05-04-2011, 01:41 PM

Lathum really wants to throw away his vote, haha.

Lathum · 05-04-2011, 01:43 PM

gah!

Vote Chief Rum

The Jackal · 05-04-2011, 01:44 PM

It's this kind of bizarre play that makes Lathum so interesting. Everytime he does stuff like this people will say, "oh there's no way a wolf would put himself in the spotlight by making such moves, he's too smart for that". He IS smart, and though I can't remember him doing this as a wolf lately, I'm sure he has.

From his voting on the previous days and his posts I haven't gotten a wolf vibe from him so I'm not looking there yet, especially not today. I suppose he might have thought his vote on DT was the second, not the third, and then was forced into never moving it, but that's not enough an argument at this stage for me to go after him. The other candidates we have up are better.

hoopsguy · 05-04-2011, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Thomkal

This is not Lathum's "A" game

05-04-2011, 03:40 AM	#611
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Narcizo has an excuse. The rest o'y'all need to go to sleep, fer Crissakes! __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

05-04-2011, 01:00 PM	#639
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	As the remaining Kai in Sommerlund, your goal is to make it to the capital of Holmgard. For now, a more important goal is to survive. __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent Last edited by Abe Sargent : 05-04-2011 at 01:00 PM.

05-04-2011, 02:46 AM	#601
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Gee I mention your names and nothing? I may as well go to sleep.

05-04-2011, 02:50 AM	#602
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	So with a fresh look at things and knowing (with high likelihood) that CR is good, I have a different idea for a candidate today. Looking at the CR voters from D1, dwardzala's vote stands out most since it pushed him to 4 to compete with DT. He also voted for Thomkal (known villager) early in the day. To add to this voting info making him look poor, there is also this circumstantial evidence: 1. I voted him early D1 but he never received a second vote. 2. He voted early for Thomkal D2 and never gave much indication of changing his vote or considering anyone else. 3. Danny's comment yesterday about Thomkal and he wouldn't think a wolf wouldn't jump to vote him if he was a villager...maybe the wolf was already on him. Seems like a reasonable starting point for the day anyway. Vote Dwardzala 2. Danny's comment regarding Thomkal

05-04-2011, 02:53 AM	#603
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Day One 6 Daddy Torgo - Autumn (70), Zinto (77), Lathum (78), Hoops (130), Danny (139), Mauboy (151) 5 Darth Vilus - Narcizo (71), MrBug (86) Chief Rum (93), JAG (103), Daddy Torgo (117) 3 mckerney - bhlloy (73), PackerFanatic (84) Thomkal (92) 4 Chief Rum - Crimson Fox (81), Jackal (85), Mckerney (101), dwardzala (106) Day Two 6 Thomkal - Dwardzala (186), Mauboy (280), MrBug (324), Zinto (330), Danny (347), Chief Rum (356) 3 Chief Rum - JAG (253), Darth Vilus (240), Jackal (253) 5 MrBug - CrimsonFox (206), Narcizo (207), Bhlloy (236), Hoops (319), Thomkal (324) 1 JAG - PackerFanatic (213) 1 CrimsonFox - Lathum (220)

05-04-2011, 03:01 AM	#605
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	JAG to be honest MrBug and/or you look like the best bets for a wolf at the moment but you're making a lot of sense about dwardzala. I'm going to read through and see what I make of it. Haven't had much of a time to digest or put my thinking cap on as I've been running hither and thither restarting servers this morning. In between the important work of compiling the voting list.

05-04-2011, 03:05 AM	#606
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	I do think either Zinto or Lathum are wolves. There was no danger to DT until hoops and Danny pulled the switcheroo. And I think it more because of how they act. Yeah the group is broad. I've been preoccupied with the scan business and not getting lynch myself to look at the people I mentioned. But for a variety of reasons really. There is the Danny/hoops/mckerney group that got trust boosts from day 1. Oh yeah the DV thing. I remember that now. So there's the me/bug/Chief/mauboy/jackal thing. So are you really going to believe everyone above is clear? I think Zinto/Lathum is a source of one wolf as I believe in spread out wolves and wolf on wolf action (bow chicka bowhowwwwwwwwl) is all the rage these days. I think there's a wolf in the quiet ones (bhlloy/packerfanatic/dwardcala) JAG and Narcizo - useful info a lot and...hmmm...I just don't know. But I like having you around so I wouldn't think of voting for you right now.

05-04-2011, 03:11 AM	#607
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zgxf1xzRkQ&NR=1

05-04-2011, 03:17 AM	#608
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	The one-off scans are kind of like the Vegas game in that the people scanned are more likely to be cleared than the people scanning them, as it would be very risky for a wolf to try to pass along another wolf as cleared and take the chance of losing both wolves if they were found out. So that makes me feel reasonably good about CR and Jackal mores than the scanners, although it's tough to think Mau would be a wolf and cast the vote he did D1. As for Zinto / Lathum, I kind of agree with bhlloy that Zinto usually comes off a bit wolfy, but like others I used to think that about until I kept being wrong, I need something more solid before I would consider voting him. As for Lathum, that's even more unlikely in my opinion. I absolutely do not see wolf Lathum pushing a fellow wolf to 3 votes D1 with villager options to vote for.

05-04-2011, 03:24 AM	#609
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Anyway, yes, that's a lot of people that I don't see as likely wolves, which means I could be wrong, but my guess is there wouldn't be more than one wolf in my broad "low percentage" group and there are still candidates outside that group to explore, so I don't see imvestigating them until we take a few swings at more likely wolves. We got a really good gift D1.

05-04-2011, 03:24 AM	#610
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I still don't see any reason to chase DT voters. Yeah, wolf-on-wolf action and all but still. Seems like there's more obvious places to look.

05-04-2011, 03:42 AM	#612
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Hey up Chief - got any ideas about where to look. You're one of the most trusted out there now so I'm interested in what you have to say.

05-04-2011, 03:42 AM	#613
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Wish I could get a chance to look through things again but people keep on ringing wanting stuff fixed, the selfish bostords!

05-04-2011, 05:47 AM	#619
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I still think there must be another wolf vote on Darth Vilus. I realise that it's easier for me to think that because I know there's only two wolf candidates there. But dwardzala looks a good place to look as well. I'm going to look at those three. Votes: JAG - his vote day one pushes Vilus ahead of Torgo. Starts up with a vote on Chief Rum, and doesn't actually move despite claiming misgivings about Rum being a wolf. He picks up votes early in the day but Hoops moving off of him again seems to take him out of contention. I've got a decent amount of trust for Hoops (with the usual provisos about him being a good wolf) so I don't really read much into that. I know I made it two votes to MrBug yesterday but I'm a bit surprised that JAG didn't pick up more heat, which could be a minus. MrBug - his vote day one pushes DV into a three-way tie one off of DT on 3. Day two he's pretty much a target from the start and acts in self-defence. If he's a wolf and a save is made then you're pretty much looking at Zinto being the one doing it. If that's the case Bug would have to have a pretty juicy role to warrant that sort of a save. You'd have to look earlier on in the day for wolf efforts to save with votes on Chief, JAG or Thomkal. Dwardzalla - his vote day one is just as bad as JAG's if you think Chief is villager. Didn't attract any other votes which is a minus. Votes known villager early day two and disappears. Gathering Information: Not as important day three as day two but a MrBug vote tells us the most - were wolves maneuvering to save him early on, did Zinto save him? Plus if he's a villager we can put Chief in dark blue. JAG was kind of a target yesterday so we'll get some info. Dwardzalla we get very little info from, except if he comes up wolf now then JAG looks better. Generally activity: MrBug's activity seem strange to me. His reveal from the scan is useless and looks like the sort of thing a wolf would do to get trust. There's the whole uncertainty about who he scanned until after Crimson reveals that he scanned Chief as good, which is kind of dubious to me. But overall he gives the impression of a confused villager than a wolf with an agenda. Seems very eager to claim himself cleared but the wolves are going to have to have talked about this, specifically to avoid making the sort of mistake people thought Chief made so it's going to be fresher for them than anyone else. JAG has been pretty helpful and seems to have come up with good ideas and thoughts. There's the whole "Kill Autumn" thing but that's hardly damning, same way as Danny being nked it doesn't automatically mean DV is a wolf. Seems very quick to drop the target DV line from yesterday and start in on dwardzala without commenting on Bug which could be a minus or not. Dwardzala - yeah. No. Same boat as MrBug yesterday.

05-04-2011, 05:50 AM	#620
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Okay I really think we have one or two wolves in the three people I've looked at. I set my tie-breaker to least participation so I thin I'll go there again. Vote Dwardzala Some day it's got to work.

05-04-2011, 06:56 AM	#622
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I think Chief, Hoops and Autumn are the guys here who probably know most about what I'm like as a wolf. Autumn's the only one who's been a wolf with me. Actually I was a wolf with mau for a couple of days but I'd rather not bring up that debacle.

05-04-2011, 06:56 AM	#623
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	D'oh! I just did.

05-04-2011, 08:12 AM	#626
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Not sure I am comfortable putting a third vote in a row there though. I like him as a candidate still, but may try and bring someone else in as a second candidate.

05-04-2011, 08:24 AM	#627
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Vote Bhhloy Looking at the votes, I think he makes a good second candidate.

05-04-2011, 10:25 AM	#628
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Wow, a lot of posts and happenings in the wee hours. I think it's safe to say CR is clear! Though I really think we need one more scan on him. Happily surprised that mau scanned me, though I do wonder how many animal kinships we have left. Sucks that two people went on CR the same night, even if that solidifies the idea that he's good. Dward and bhlloy seem good candidates, as do JAG and Zinto. Going to get some errands in and then I'll be back to analyze the votes those people have made a bit closer.

05-04-2011, 10:38 AM	#629
MrBug708 Head Coach Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Whittier	We know for certain that a scan will come up correct, right?

05-04-2011, 10:53 AM	#630
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	I want to explore Zinto more, he's playing a very under the radar game and the DT vote that he's getting his trust from is a potential wolf play. He had a key, key Thomkal vote on day 2. So really, I'm pretty surprised he's not getting more looks here. Vote Zinto

05-04-2011, 10:54 AM	#631
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	I know I have been pretty quiet up to this point...after nearly blowing it last game, I have been watching intently from the sidelines (for better or worse, I suppose). I think dward and bhhloy are the best options at this point, based on voting...but getting one more candidate out there would be a good idea too. I am still not totally sold on JAG (hence my vote not moving last night - that and the fact I wasn't on at deadline) so I might throw him out there, but I will wait to see how things pan out this aft.

05-04-2011, 11:27 AM	#632
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	[quote=JAG;2465267]Just to reiterate on the above bolded, after Zinto / Lathum put their votes on DT, there was certainly a lot of danger to DT at that point with him having a 3-1-1-1 lead over the other candidates. QUOTE] I agree with this. No way I put a third vote on a wolf. Admitidely I had no clue Zinto had voted, but I would have had a perfectly reasonable reason to move that vote and I chose to leave it. That has to be worth something.

05-04-2011, 11:33 AM	#633
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	As of Post 632: 2 dwardzala - JAG (602), Narcizo (620) 2 Zinto - CrimsonFox (600), bhlloy (630) 1 bhlloy - Danny (627) Yet to vote: hoops, Lathum, mckerney, PackerFanatic, Chief Rum, Zinto, dwardzala, Bug, Mau, Jackal, DV

05-04-2011, 12:44 PM	#634
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Jag is the thread killer

05-04-2011, 12:46 PM	#635
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Vote JAckal

05-04-2011, 12:53 PM	#637
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Looking at the other candidates, now that I have time: Zinto has 1 vote on a wolf, 1 vote on a known villager. Raises him up just slightly, as that second vote on DT could definitely have been a wolf on wolf vote, and he wouldn't be expecting Lathum to piggyback. Still, I don't know if it's enough to go his way today. Dwardzala has a questionable looking day one vote, similar to JAG, and put forth the first vote on Thom day two, known villager. bhlloy added mckerney (unknown) to the mix day one, and tacked on bug (unknown, but on the slightly trusted side for his scan) day two. I think all three of these guys are good candidates, but going on gut between dwardz and bhlloy I'm feeling a little worse about bhlloy. VOTE BHLLOY

05-04-2011, 12:56 PM	#638
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'll be in and out today, will try to be around at the deadline but with the Flyers I can't guarantee it.

05-04-2011, 01:16 PM	#640
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I do not believe that the DT vote should give me much trust to be honest it seems like many wolves are laying down an early vote to gain trust in most games. Also my vote on Thomkal looks bad but usually ties do not favor the village and if Bug is also a villager then I am not sure how much you can put into me moving my vote.

05-04-2011, 01:22 PM	#641
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I do not have a very good read on Bhlloy since he excuses me of being a wolf then I believe that he actually is a wolf trying to get my terrible villager butt lynched. Dward has been quiet but that usually is his MO. The early vote on Thomkal looks worse now and I usually look at the early votes that stuck through out the day when I believe that two villagers where on the block. I almost want to vote Lathum because my understanding of how he plays a villager is very in your face and confrontational while I feel that as a wolf he is much more quiet.

05-04-2011, 01:26 PM	#642
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	Lathum what's up with that vote? You will be the only one on him so do the village a favor and change your vote. Unless Kai lords are bad from your perspective....Smith.....