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02-21-2007, 01:23 PM
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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All-Time College Football Tournament
Please note that I can no longer access the original thread. I think I had pasted too many items from Excel and the thread was too large. Hopefully the new text and code based format will work.
Welcome to the All-Time College Football Tournament. This simulation will be a single-elimination tournament comprised of every major college football team ever fielded. There are 12,045 entrants ranging from overall #1 seed 1971 Nebraska all the way down to #12,045 seed 1951 Northern Arizona. No matter how a team played during its season that team is now only 14 consecutive wins away from being declared college football's all-time champion. The basis for the tournament seedings and simulation results will be my historical ratings. My ratings are normalized every year and the rating that is published is a measure of the team's strength relative to the average team that year. Essentially every rating is a standard deviation value for that squad. Because of this teams can be compared from different years. For each matchup the higher-rated team's win probability (between 0 and 1) is evaluated using a z-table. A random number generator is then used and if the number generated is lower than the higher-rated team's probability then they win. Higher and they lose. A quick and dirty formula then assigns a final score to the game. Based on every team's rating the only "impossible" wins would be if that 1951 Northern Arizona team were matched up with any of our top ten squads. In every other matchup the weaker team has at least a one in a quadrillion chance of winning. So good luck to them on that one. Because there are not exactly 16,384 (or 8,192) teams in college football history some teams received byes. The top 4,339 teams were the lucky ones. Please no hate mail from fans of the #4,340 seed 1980 Syracuse Orangemen. The tournament has been divided into 8 Superregions A-H, which have each been broken up in to 8 Regions (64 total) 1-8, which have each been further divided into 8 Subregions (512 total) A-H. For example, 1971 Nebraska will play in Sub Region A1A. Here is the current simulation schedule (certain to change): 2/14-3/7: First Round Games - 2 weekdays per region 3/19-4/9: Second Round Games - 2 weekdays per region 4/10-4/19: Subregional Quarterfinals - 1 weekday per region 4/20-4/25: Subregional Semifinals - 2 regions per weekday 4/26-4/27: Subregional Finals - 4 regions per weekday 4/30: Regional Quarterfinals 5/2: Regional Semifinals 5/3: Regional Finals 5/4: Superregional Quarterfinals 5/7: Superregional Semifinals 5/8: Superregional Finals 5/9: Tournament Quarterfinals 5/10: Tournament Semifinals 5/11: Tournament Championship Game
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 01:24 PM
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#2 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
Regions 1,8,4,5 Region 1 Subregion A Code:
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 01:26 PM
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#3 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Now that I know that it will post legibly I will work on reposting past games up to where we should be.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 01:33 PM
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#4 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: South Florida
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Would you mind explaining how you generated a final score?
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02-21-2007, 02:11 PM
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#5 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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With a very basic and simplistic formula. Let's say Team A has X probability of winning. The random number generator spits out its number Y. If Y is less than X then Team A wins. The margin of victory is assigned as 56*(X-Y), the total points scored is the average of total points per game averages of the two teams involved and the scores for each team are calculated from there.
I then make minor adjustments to make the scores look like real football scores. I also make adjustments when teams end up with negative scores, of course. As you can see no game will ever have greater than a 56 point margin. And the only teams that can achieve that kind of blowout are highly favored teams. Heavy underdogs can only win close games. It's not the best system but it met some basic criteria.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 02:13 PM
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#6 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
Regions 1,8,4,5 Region 8 Subregion A Code:
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 02:13 PM
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#7 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 02:14 PM
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#8 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 02:22 PM
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#9 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 02:22 PM
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#10 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 02:22 PM
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#11 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 02:22 PM
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#12 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion A First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:01 PM
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#13 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:02 PM
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#14 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:03 PM
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#15 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:03 PM
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#16 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:23 PM
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n00b
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Roswell, Georgia
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Quote:
Where are you getting this probability? Just curious.
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Little Rock Outlaws - Shiba Football ----------------------------------------------- I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most. - Dwight Schrute |
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02-21-2007, 04:29 PM
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#18 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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That part is explained in the second main (non-italicized) paragraph of the first post.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:40 PM
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#19 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:40 PM
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#20 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:40 PM
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#21 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-21-2007, 04:40 PM
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#22 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion H First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 09:58 AM
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#23 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 09:58 AM
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#24 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 09:59 AM
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#25 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 09:59 AM
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#26 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 09:59 AM
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#27 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:00 AM
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#28 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:00 AM
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#29 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:00 AM
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#30 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion D First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:33 AM
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#31 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:33 AM
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#32 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:33 AM
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#33 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:34 AM
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#34 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:35 AM
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#35 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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The tournament is now back on its original schedule. Tournament stats coming later.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-22-2007, 10:59 AM
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#36 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Raleigh, NC
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Well, State's won more than they've lost so far (14-12). Also have a number of byes into round two. Looks like we had some very good teams in the 60s and 70s (before I was born, so I only know really about 1967, 1973, and 1979). I expect as befits our position in a major conference we'll do pretty well in the first round and probably the second, but given our middling history overall, the herd of Pack teams should start rapidly being culled after that. Given that we have no teams among the top 1024 in your ranking, I expect maybe an upset by 1967, 1973, or 2002 will get them to the round of 1024 but probably no further.
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02-22-2007, 02:30 PM
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#37 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Tournament so far:
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-23-2007, 07:34 AM
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#38 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
Regions 2,7,3,6 Region 2 Subregion A Code:
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-23-2007, 07:34 AM
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#39 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-23-2007, 07:34 AM
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#40 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-23-2007, 07:35 AM
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#41 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Superregion E First Round Games
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-23-2007, 07:37 AM
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#42 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Tournament Stats
(current day upsets in bold) Code:
Code:
We're now halfway through the first round.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-23-2007, 09:07 AM
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#43 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Raleigh, NC
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And the 2006 Pack keep losing. Still haven't beat anybody since Florida State.
Edit to add: I also see the 1984 team advanced. Can't see how as those Tom Reed teams between 1983-1985 were some of the most dreadful teams in State history. Reed was a combined 8-25 in those years. Dick Sheridan came in 1986 and produced a 7-5 Peach Bowl team. I wasn't old enough to remember the Monte Kiffin years very well (yes, that Monte Kiffin), so the 1986 team holds a bit of favor for me because they relieved us all of the waste of the prior three years and it was the first time I could ever recall State beating Carolina in football. Last edited by Wolfpack : 02-23-2007 at 09:11 AM. |
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02-23-2007, 09:38 AM
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#44 |
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High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2007
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what program are you using to Simulate this?
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02-23-2007, 10:24 AM
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#45 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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Excel
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings |
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02-23-2007, 03:09 PM
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#46 | |||
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n00b
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Roswell, Georgia
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Quote:
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(scrolls up to first post) Quote:
Can you give me an example? Just one matchup. I never took a statistics course, but I get the general gist of it.
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Little Rock Outlaws - Shiba Football ----------------------------------------------- I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most. - Dwight Schrute |
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02-23-2007, 04:38 PM
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#47 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
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No problem.
Let's take 1956 Texas versus 1994 Eastern Michigan. This was a first round matchup in subregion A1F. 1956 Texas had a rating of 66.41 in my system. 1994 Eastern Michigan had a rating of 48.13 for their season. My ratings are scaled so that each season has a mean of 65 and a standard deviation of 14. The difference in their ratings, 18.28, corresponds to a 1.31 sigma difference. Using a z-table that means that there is a 90.49% chance that a random performance from 1956 Texas will be greater than a random performance from 1994 Eastern Michigan. The random number generator produced a value of about 0.601 for this game, which is lower than .9049, so the favored team won the game, which was 1956 Texas. For final score purposes, the difference between the win probability and random number was about .302, which multiplied by 56 equals 16.92 so Texas was a 16.92 point winner. 1956 Texas saw an average of 37.30 points in their games while 1994 Eastern Michigan saw an average of 48.36 in theirs. The average of those two figures is 42.83 points which is what the formula uses. A 16.92 point winner in a game with 42.83 points will win 29.88-12.96 so the listed final score was 30-13 in favor of 1956 Texas.
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The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings Last edited by Huckleberry : 02-23-2007 at 04:44 PM. |
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02-24-2007, 09:31 AM
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#48 |
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High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2007
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this is really cool keep it up
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02-24-2007, 10:19 AM
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#49 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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This is probably the dorkiest thing I have ever seen, but I love it.
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02-24-2007, 09:38 PM
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#50 | ||
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
What he said.
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RIP |
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