2014 NFL Regular Season, Week 15

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Philly's way in is Dallas losing to Indy while winning its two remaining games against NYG/WAS, I'm pretty sure.

I kept playing with the playoff machine and got that result. Realistically it is this unless I'm missing something. It gets more interesting depending on if Seattle and Arizona lose in week 17 since GB/Detroit could grab the 1st seed.

Dallas/Philly 3rd seed.
Arizona or Seattle 1st/5th seed.
Green Bay/Detroit 2nd/6th seed
NFC South 4th seed.

[EagleFan]

Here's what I get:

Saints over Bears

AFC
1) New England 11-3
2) Denver 11-3
3) Indianapolis 10-4
4) Cincinnati 9-4-1
5) Pittsburgh 9-5
6) Baltimore 9-5

7) Kansas City 8-6
8) San Diego 8-6
9) Miami 8-6


NFC
1) Arizona 11-3
2) Detroit 10-4
3) Dallas 10-4
4) New Orleans 6-8
5) Green Bay 10-4
6) Seattle 10-4

7) Philadelphia 9-5
...) Carolina 5-8-1
...) Atlanta 5-9

Eagles over Redskins
49ers over Chargers
Dolphins over Vikings
Texans over Ravens
Lions over Bears
Panthers over Browns
Saints over Falcons
Packers over Buccaneers
Steelers over Chiefs
Patriots over Jets
Colts over Cowboys
Seahawks over Cardinals
Broncos over Bengals

AFC
1) New England 12-3
2) Denver 12-3
3) Indianapolis 11-4
4) Pittsburgh 10-5
5) Cincinnati 9-5-1
6) Baltimore 9-6

7) Miami 9-6
8) Kansas City 8-7
9) San Diego 8-7


NFC
1) Seattle 11-4
2) Detroit 11-4
3) Philadelphia 10-5
4) New Orleans 7-8
5) Green Bay 11-4
6) Arizona 11-4

7) Dallas 10-5
...) Carolina 6-8-1


Panthers over Falcons
Ravens over Browns
Cowboys over Redskins
Colts over Titans
Packers over Lions
Chiefs over Chargers
Dolphins over Jets
Patriots over Bills
Eagles over Giants
Steelers over Bengals
Saints over Buccaneers
Broncos over Raiders
49ers over Cardinals
Seahawks over Rams

AFC
1) New England 13-3
2) Denver 13-3
3) Indianapolis 12-4
4) Pittsburgh 11-5
5) Baltimore 10-6
6) Miami 10-6

7) Cincinnati 9-6-1
8) Kansas City 9-7
9) San Diego 8-8


NFC
1) Seattle 12-4
2) Green Bay 12-4
3) Philadelphia 11-5
4) New Orleans 8-8
5) Detroit 11-5
6) Arizona 11-5

7) Dallas 11-5
...) Carolina 7-8-1


AFC
New England - bye
Denver - bye
Miami @ Indianapolis
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

AFC
Seattle - bye
Green Bay - bye
Arizona @ Philadelphia
Detroit @ New Orleans



Just my guess (and my hope as far as the Eagles go; sucks that they should have beaten Arizona and San Francisco and been in good shape now but that is water under the bridge).

[Matthean]

Arizona beat Detroit and thus would be the 5th seed.

[henry296]

Also, Miami can't get to 10-6 as they are 7-7.

Buffalo is an interesting possibility at 10-6 if they can beat New England which might be a possibility if Denver loses to Cincy next week.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I forget, is there anyone spectacular in next year's draft?

Mariota, Winston and Amari Cooper are the big offensive names, other than them its a couple OT's and a lot of pass rushers in the top 10. There are a couple other WR's like Kevin White who might keep moving up into that top group. You also have Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley at RB - I don't think anyone is taking a RB in the top half of the first round, but it only takes one team to prove that wrong.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by miked

Why is everyone loving Mariota so much? I mean, he's put up great numbers but he's a system QB. With all the hype these last few years surrounding these products of no-huddle spread/read option offenses, the NFL production has been sour. All the top QBs are still pro-style at college, how many of these guys like Manziel, Griffin, etc do we have to sit through before we realize they haven't "changed the game" as hyped.

I hope the Jets come to their senses and trade down while signing a QB in FA. Draft Cooper or some RB to get some offense, or perhaps some secondary help. But please not another overhyped read-option guy.

How many young QB's do you consider good? I count either 2 or at most like 5 - Luck (pro-style), Wilson (mostly pro-style in college, but did average over 100 rushing attempts per season), then guys like Newton (read-option guy), Tannehill (read-option guy. Plus did you know he used to he a WR?), Colin Kaepernick (read-option guy). Alex Smith and Andy Dalton were also heavily read-option guys in college.

Griffin was spectacular in his one healthy season. Not just good for a rookie but literally had the best QB rating for a rookie QB ever and the 3rd most rushing yards by any QB ever. Plenty of people (most?) were skeptical of Manziel, and he was never really a "system" guy, but really an improv guy.

Nobody was projecting other successful Oregon QB's like Dennis Dixon or Darron Thomas or whoever as 1st round picks. Mariota gets the hype because, in addition to his feet, he's also an exceedingly accurate passer who has a really strong arm. And he also doesn't have the litany of character questions the other top QB does. He might not be the sure fire prospect Luck or Manning were but as a Pats fan I'm hoping the Jets don't get him. (Weirdly I actually really like Winston too if he's in the right organization, but put him on the Jets and I think he flames out spectacularly.)

[stevew]

[Logan]

Blandino: Roughing penalty on hit to Wilson incorrect - NFL.com

You have to wonder if the NFL follows college and starts to review these 15 yarders offsite. They've put these refs in an impossible situation and, while as a Niner fan I had zero doubt they'd lose that game anyway, these calls can so easily be game-changers.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by henry296

Also, Miami can't get to 10-6 as they are 7-7.

Buffalo is an interesting possibility at 10-6 if they can beat New England which might be a possibility if Denver loses to Cincy next week.

Buffalo's chances are very slim. They lose tie-breakers to every other AFC wild card hopefuls, with a shot at 10-6. It's very unlikely that all of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and San Diego finish worse than 10-6, because there are hth games between them.

[Scoobz0202]

Stupid question: Did I see last week that Dallas doesn't have the tie breaker over Seattle? Am I remembering wrong? Dallas beat them and I thought head-to-head was the first step in the tie-breaker.

[NobodyHere]

I think it's moot if there's a 3-way tie.

For example if Dallas, Seattle and Detroit all finish 11-5 and don't win their divisions, then Dallas is the odd man out for the wildcard, at least according to ESPN's playoff Machine.

ETA: I think Dallas is hurt by their relatively poor (7-4) conference record.

[BillJasper]

Ruh roh!

DeMarco Murray needs surgery on broken bone in hand | ProFootballTalk

[Desnudo]

Patriots Jets feels like such a trap game.

[Chief Rum]

I noticed this possibility.

There is a distinct possibility that the Cardinals, not the Seahawks, would win the NFC West, which likely means Seattle would be the top wildcard team, seeded #5.

There is a distinct possibility that the Saints will win the pathetic NFC South, and thusly, be the worst division winner and the #4 seed.

If this comes to pass, the terribly bad Saints will host the Seahawks in the wildcard round--the polar opposite of a few years ago when an "awful" Seahawks team beat a very good Saints team in that same round, in Seattle.

World comes full circle?

[Thomkal]

Cardinals say they don’t know when Stanton will return | ProFootballTalk

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

Stupid question: Did I see last week that Dallas doesn't have the tie breaker over Seattle? Am I remembering wrong? Dallas beat them and I thought head-to-head was the first step in the tie-breaker.

Best way to find out. 2014 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

[rowech]

I'm starting to think I'm the only person who believes Gronkowski should be the MVP of the league.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by rowech

I'm starting to think I'm the only person who believes Gronkowski should be the MVP of the league.

You should be. No way and it's not even close.

Rob Gronkowski - 76 catches, 1093 yards, 11tds, 62.8% catches on targets, 58 first downs

Antonio Brown - 115 catches, 1498 yards, 11tds, 72.3% catches on targets, 76 first downs

And I'm not even sure Brown is the MVP of his TEAM, which may be Bell.

[Scoobz0202]

Pretty entertaining article on Andrew Luck and his "trash talk"

http://www.wsj.com/articles/andrew-l...ker-1418663249

[stevew]

LeVeon Bell is a monster. Will not be surprised if he puts up a 1000/1000 season next year.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by stevew

LeVeon Bell is a monster. Will not be surprised if he puts up a 1000/1000 season next year.

You just jinxed him. He'll tear his ACL/MCL in the preseason next year!

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

You should be. No way and it's not even close.

Rob Gronkowski - 76 catches, 1093 yards, 11tds, 62.8% catches on targets, 58 first downs

Antonio Brown - 115 catches, 1498 yards, 11tds, 72.3% catches on targets, 76 first downs

And I'm not even sure Brown is the MVP of his TEAM, which may be Bell.

Gronkowski changes the Patriots more than any player in the league changes his team with the possible exception of Aaron Rodgers. The Patriots were getting talk of Brady being washed up without him and now they're rolling. This mismatches he creates are what have opened things up for Brady. Without him, they're average on offense.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by rowech

Gronkowski changes the Patriots more than any player in the league changes his team with the possible exception of Aaron Rodgers. The Patriots were getting talk of Brady being washed up without him and now they're rolling. This mismatches he creates are what have opened things up for Brady. Without him, they're average on offense.

{citation required}

I'm not sure what you're talking about. Gronkowski has started every game this year. When was Brady "without him" and when was this talk about him being washed up?

[rowech]

He was on the field but he wasn't healthy and teams didn't have to plan for him. Things changed once he got back to himself. Without him, I think the Patriots are average at best.

[Lathum]

Cutler!

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by rowech

He was on the field but he wasn't healthy and teams didn't have to plan for him. Things changed once he got back to himself. Without him, I think the Patriots are average at best.

Did he get back to himself or did Brady get better? I'm not disputing that Gronk is important to his team, but I think Tom Brady is far more important to the Patriots than Gronk is. Plus, in the passing game, Gronk has some good company on the Patriots. Eldeman has more catches (92) and almost as many yards (972). LaFell is 63 for 819. Gronk is by far their most valuable asset in the Red Zone, but between the 20s he may not even be their best target. 63% catches on targets is kind of average and that really is a telling stat.

Now the Steelers have Bell in the backfield and he's a stud, but look at the other receiving targets for the Steelers. Beyond Bell out of the backfield, the next guy is Heath Miller at 56 catches. Brown carries the Steelers passing game like perhaps no other WR in the league this year. 73% target rate is downright amazing and the guy leads the league in both catches and yards, tied for 4th in TDs and 6th in YAC. So if you're considering pass catchers, you just can't overlook someone like Brown because not only does he have better all-around stats, he's also easily the main focus in the passing game to an extent rarely seen in the NFL.

Gronkowski is having a great year and is a key cog in the Patriots attack, but MVP? Not even top 5, probably not even top 10. I'd consider a handful of QBs, DeMarco Murray (he has carried that team to the playoffs), Bell, Brown, Jordy Nelson and JJ Watt ahead of Gronk. No doubt he's the best TE in the league this year (Greg Olson is #2), but it's tough to justify him for serious MVP consideration. At this stage (and yes, I know he's hurt now) Murray would get my vote. No way does Dallas get to the playoffs without him. 120 rushing yards per game is amazing and while Romo has been banged up all year, Murray has been covering for him and kept him from getting too banged up (Romo has only 381 attempts, which is very low).

[Coffee Warlord]

God damn, it's like watching the Bears offense from the Lovie era.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

God damn, it's like watching the Bears offense from the Lovie era.

Got to look at the positives: you guys only owe Cutler, what? Another $50 million.

[Coffee Warlord]

THANKS.

[BillJasper]

Is Trestman fired at the end of the year? This Bears team looks pretty bad.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

Pretty entertaining article on Andrew Luck and his "trash talk"

http://www.wsj.com/articles/andrew-l...ker-1418663249

“Great job, Nolan!” made me smile

Made me think of the Prince playing basketball skit

[BillJasper]

Jon Gruden signs seven year extension with ESPN.

[Arles]

I was pretty bummed after yesterday's crap effort by GB in Buffalo. But then I watch this Bears first half and thought "well, it could be a lot worse"...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Jon Gruden signs seven year extension with ESPN.

Why wouldn't he? I can't see him going back to coaching. He can make more money and work 1/4 the hours with no pressure.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I can't see him going back to coaching.

I don't either. This generations John Madden.

Not a good way to start the 2nd half. Give up a TD on a drive that takes 6&1/2 minutes.

[BillJasper]

Bears offense looks like they're ready for the off-season.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Bears offense looks like they're ready for the off-season.

Kind of like the Rams offense.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Is Trestman fired at the end of the year? This Bears team looks pretty bad.

He SHOULD be. I backed him last year, but the league has figured him out, they've been unable to adjust, and Trestman now leads a disorganized mess of a team that has clearly quit. I can easily see the McCaskey's not wanting to spend the money to dump him, however.

Entire staff needs to go, and we're back to needing a QB. At least we have the Blackhawks and hopefully the Cubs.

[BillJasper]

I'd say put Clausen in, but you'd probably shatter what is left of Cutler's confidence.

[NobodyHere]

Whenever I get mad that the Colts traded their first round pick for Trent Richardson, I calm myself by saying "At least it wasn't two first round picks for Jay Cutler."

[korme]

I was down 5 in my semi-final matchup tonight with Cutler and Graham, and my opponent having no one left.

It was a sure lock, I thought. Jesus christ.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by korme

I was down 5 in my semi-final matchup tonight with Cutler and Graham, and my opponent having no one left.

It was a sure lock, I thought. Jesus christ.

You still have the hope of a garbage TD.

[Honolulu_Blue]

This performance by Cutler ranks up there with Johnny Manziel yesterday and Andy Dalton on that Thursday night game. Yikes.

Hey, Bears, save some of this awfulness for next week, please!

[Radii]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

I'd say put Clausen in

This is never a viable solution to any problem.

[korme]

Originally Posted by Matthean

You still have the hope of a garbage TD.

If the Saints extend this lead we're going to see Jimmy Clausen.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Radii

This is never a viable solution to any problem.

[BillJasper]

You just need to give Cutler three quarters to warm up!

[Atocep]

I would have no problem with Cutler being released sometime during the 4th quarter.

[albionmoonlight]

In general, I think that teams fire coaches/managers too quickly. But watching last night, I can't see how you don't fire Trestman. It isn't just that the Saints beat them. It's that the Bears's players are clearly all working on offseason vacation plans at this point. Near the end, Cutler looked almost annoyed to have to go out there and keep playing.

The fans deserve better than that.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Near the end, Cutler looked almost annoyed to have to go out there and keep playing.

Isn't that his usual look?