Katrina hits Category 5.

[Eaglesfan27]

to avoid Katrina which seems to be heading very close to New Orleans. Right now, they are predicting it is going to be a Category 4 Hurricane and that it is going to head right towards New Orleans. My mother-in-law who is a certifiable weather phobic just called me and woke me up so I can check the 10:00 update with her which will be happening in a few minutes.

If the track stays the same, we'll have to decide on whether to evacuate or not soon. Mayor Nagin was just on TV and said the state will likely call for mandatory evacuations of the New Orleans area later this evening or tomorrow morning. Last time it took us about 18 hours just to get to Houston . Complicating things is my wife's grandparents who don't want to leave. They say the last one missed us, and they aren't going through the hassle of evacuating again.

If it does hit the city, I hate to see what is going to happen to this giant bowl of a city.

[Ksyrup]

This is like the 4th hurricane in the past year to have been headed straight for Tallahassee at one point, only to slip off to the west. Good luck.

[capsicum]

wow, that sucks. Sure hope it turns and weakens, and if it dosent that your wifes grandparents change theyre mind and head to dryer safer ground, even if for no other reason to save the misery of worrying about your loved ones. I pray that this storm will cause little to no damage and head on out back over water until she peters out. Stay Safe and drive carefully if it becomes necessary for you to leave.

[Eaglesfan27]

Sheesh. I just went to top off my tank (I'm only down a gallon or two) but there were over 100 cars in line at each of my 3 local gas stations. Also, gas prices seemed suspiciously higher than they did 2 days ago.

[Flasch186]

go now!! why not...a little mini vaca if it doesnt hi you and if it oes hit you, you were gone and safe.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

go now!! why not...a little mini vaca if it doesnt hi you and if it oes hit you, you were gone and safe.

Because neither my work nor Mrs. Eaglesfan's work will let us leave unless there are mandatory evacuations. They are delaying making that call until either this afternoon or perhaps as late as tomorrow morning

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Because neither my work nor Mrs. Eaglesfan's work will let us leave unless there are mandatory evacuations. They are delaying making that call until either this afternoon or perhaps as late as tomorrow morning

Well, do either of you have to work tommorow? Go and get a hotel room tonight, and you can always drive back tommorow afternoon if there is no evac. Your still going to get a jump on some. I imagine traffic after the announcement will be much worse than it is now.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Let us not forget last year's warning....

Direct hit by Ivan could submerge New Orleans tree-top deep

NEW ORLEANS — The worst-case scenario for New Orleans — a direct strike by a full-strength Hurricane Ivan — could submerge much of this historic city treetop-deep in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say.

If the storm were strong enough, Ivan could drive water over the tops of the levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River and vast Lake Pontchartrain. And with the city sitting in a saucer-shaped depression that dips as much as 9 feet below sea level, there would be nowhere for all that water to drain.

Alex Brandon/Times-Picayune (ENLARGE)
Traffic on the Interstate10 is bumper to bumper as evacuees head away from New Orleans to escape Hurricane Ivan.
EMAIL THIS PRINT THIS MOST POPULAR

Even in the best of times, New Orleans depends on a network of canals and huge pumps to keep water from accumulating inside the basin.

"Those folks who remain, should the city flood, would be exposed to all kinds of nightmares from buildings falling apart to floating in the water having nowhere to go," Ivor van Heerden, director of Louisiana State University's Hurricane Public Health Center, said Tuesday.

LSU's hurricane experts have spent years developing computer models and taking surveys to predict what might happen.

The surveys predict that about 300,000 of the 1.6 million people living in the metropolitan area would risk staying.

The computer models show a hurricane with a wind speed of around 120 mph or more — hitting just west of New Orleans so its counterclockwise rotation could hurl the strongest surf and wind directly into the city — would push a storm surge from the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain over the city's levees. Ivan had sustained wind of 140 mph Tuesday.

New Orleans would be under about 20 feet of water, higher than the roofs of many of the city's homes.

Besides collecting standard household and business garbage and chemicals, the flood would flow through chemical plants in the area, "so there's the potential of pretty severe contamination," van Heerden said.

Severe flooding in area bayous also forces out wildlife, including poisonous snakes and stinging fire ants, which sometimes gather in floating balls carried by the current.

A rescue of people who stayed behind would be among the world's biggest since 1940, when Allied forces and civilian volunteers during World War II rescued mostly British soldiers from Dunkirk, France, and carried them across the English Channel, van Heerden predicted.

Much of the city would be under water for weeks. And even after the river and Lake Pontchartrain receded, the levees could trap water above sea level, meaning the Army Corps of Engineers would have to cut the levees to let the water out.

"The real big problem is the water from sea level on down because it will have to be pumped and restoring the pumps and getting them back into action could take a considerable amount of time," said John Hall, the Corps' spokesman in New Orleans.

Hall spoke from his home — 6 feet below sea level — as he prepared to flee the city himself. The Corps' local staff was being relocated 166 miles north to Vicksburg, Miss.

New Orleans was on the far western edge of the Gulf Coast region threatened by Ivan, and forecasters said Tuesday that the hurricane appeared to moving toward a track farther east, along the Mississippi coast.

If the eye came ashore east of the city, van Heerden said, New Orleans would be on the low side of the storm surge and would not likely have catastrophic flooding.

The worst storm in recent decades to hit New Orleans was Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which submerged parts of the city in water 7-feet deep and was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. That storm was a Category 3, weaker than Ivan is expected to be.

Even if New Orleans escapes this time, van Heerden said, it will remain vulnerable until the federal and state governments act to restore the coastal wetlands that should act as a buffer against storms coming in from the Gulf.

Louisiana has lost about a half million acres of coast to erosion since 1930 because the Mississippi River is so corralled by levees that it can dump sediment only at its mouth, and that allows waves from the Gulf to chop away at the rest of the coastline.

"My fear is, if this storm passes (without a major disaster), everybody forgets about it until next year, when it could be even worse because we'll have even less wetlands," van Heerden said.

[Tigercat]

Luckily it looks like the Hurricane will go somewhere east of the city instead of just west and up the river, which is the doomsday scenario. (One of two worst case natural disaster scenarios already planned out by the federal government alongside another San Francisco great earthquake.)

The thing to worry about for people outside of New Orleans and Southern Louisiana is the number of oil refineries in SE Louisiana. A hurricane hitting in the right spot could also shut down at least 4 major refineries for at least a week.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

Well, do either of you have to work tommorow? Go and get a hotel room tonight, and you can always drive back tommorow afternoon if there is no evac. Your still going to get a jump on some. I imagine traffic after the announcement will be much worse than it is now.

Mrs. Eaglesfan is supposed to be at work by 3:00 PM today if there is no mandatory evacuation order. I have a job that requires me to go to a local hospital for about 20-30 minutes every single day. However, we just booked a room for ourselves and my mother-in-law and her 2 teenagers. Unfortunately, the closest room (that takes pets) we could find in a "safe" place was Little Rock, AR. We are prepared to leave VERY early tomorrow morning (and hopefully avoid some of the traffic.)

Specifically, we are planning on leaving about 4:00 AM if we are leaving.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Little Rock and safe? That is an oxymoron.

Actually, just about anywhere is more safe than New Orleans. I'm not talking about just the hurricanes Our murder rate has been ridiculous this year.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

Luckily it looks like the Hurricane will go somewhere east of the city instead of just west and up the river, which is the doomsday scenario. (One of two worst case natural disaster scenarios already planned out by the federal government alongside another San Francisco great earthquake.)

I have never heard that before. I could see why though. It would cause all sorts of problems. It will happen sometime down the road I am sure. These hurricanes are nuts.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Actually, just about anywhere is more safe than New Orleans. I'm not talking about just the hurricanes Our murder rate has been ridiculous this year.

What part of Little Rock is your hotel in?

[Eaglesfan27]

The hotel is in the "Medical Center Area" on Fair Park Blvd.

[Lathum]

Good luck Eaglesfan, You'll be in my thoughts.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Good luck Eaglesfan, You'll be in my thoughts.

Thanks. Right now, we are just getting prepared to leave if needed.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Let us not forget last year's warning....

Direct hit by Ivan could submerge New Orleans tree-top deep

NEW ORLEANS — The worst-case scenario for New Orleans — a direct strike by a full-strength Hurricane Ivan — could submerge much of this historic city treetop-deep in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say.

If the storm were strong enough, Ivan could drive water over the tops of the levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River and vast Lake Pontchartrain. And with the city sitting in a saucer-shaped depression that dips as much as 9 feet below sea level, there would be nowhere for all that water to drain.

Even in the best of times, New Orleans depends on a network of canals and huge pumps to keep water from accumulating inside the basin.

"Those folks who remain, should the city flood, would be exposed to all kinds of nightmares from buildings falling apart to floating in the water having nowhere to go," Ivor van Heerden, director of Louisiana State University's Hurricane Public Health Center, said Tuesday.

LSU's hurricane experts have spent years developing computer models and taking surveys to predict what might happen.

The surveys predict that about 300,000 of the 1.6 million people living in the metropolitan area would risk staying.

The computer models show a hurricane with a wind speed of around 120 mph or more — hitting just west of New Orleans so its counterclockwise rotation could hurl the strongest surf and wind directly into the city — would push a storm surge from the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain over the city's levees. Ivan had sustained wind of 140 mph Tuesday.

New Orleans would be under about 20 feet of water, higher than the roofs of many of the city's homes.

Besides collecting standard household and business garbage and chemicals, the flood would flow through chemical plants in the area, "so there's the potential of pretty severe contamination," van Heerden said.

Severe flooding in area bayous also forces out wildlife, including poisonous snakes and stinging fire ants, which sometimes gather in floating balls carried by the current.

A rescue of people who stayed behind would be among the world's biggest since 1940, when Allied forces and civilian volunteers during World War II rescued mostly British soldiers from Dunkirk, France, and carried them across the English Channel, van Heerden predicted.

Much of the city would be under water for weeks. And even after the river and Lake Pontchartrain receded, the levees could trap water above sea level, meaning the Army Corps of Engineers would have to cut the levees to let the water out.

"The real big problem is the water from sea level on down because it will have to be pumped and restoring the pumps and getting them back into action could take a considerable amount of time," said John Hall, the Corps' spokesman in New Orleans.

Hall spoke from his home — 6 feet below sea level — as he prepared to flee the city himself. The Corps' local staff was being relocated 166 miles north to Vicksburg, Miss.

New Orleans was on the far western edge of the Gulf Coast region threatened by Ivan, and forecasters said Tuesday that the hurricane appeared to moving toward a track farther east, along the Mississippi coast.

If the eye came ashore east of the city, van Heerden said, New Orleans would be on the low side of the storm surge and would not likely have catastrophic flooding.

The worst storm in recent decades to hit New Orleans was Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which submerged parts of the city in water 7-feet deep and was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. That storm was a Category 3, weaker than Ivan is expected to be.

Even if New Orleans escapes this time, van Heerden said, it will remain vulnerable until the federal and state governments act to restore the coastal wetlands that should act as a buffer against storms coming in from the Gulf.

Louisiana has lost about a half million acres of coast to erosion since 1930 because the Mississippi River is so corralled by levees that it can dump sediment only at its mouth, and that allows waves from the Gulf to chop away at the rest of the coastline.

"My fear is, if this storm passes (without a major disaster), everybody forgets about it until next year, when it could be even worse because we'll have even less wetlands," van Heerden said.

Gosh.

[Eaglesfan27]

According to noaa and the national weather service, the hurricane track has shifted slightly west. The chance that it might go slightly west of the city has convinced me that it is definitely necessary to leave as that could lead to the worst case scenario described above. Also, some models suggest that it might reach a category 5 in intensity. Others suggest that it will remain a category 3, but I'm not taking any chances.

Mrs. Eaglesfan went to work today, and I'm going to do that daily job today, but I'm calling my boss in a few minutes and letting him know that I'm evacuating unless there is a drastic shift in the track by the 10 PM update tonight. Mrs. Eaglesfan is telling her boss that she won't be in tomorrow (or potentially for the next few days.)

Another factor pushing me to leave is that a friend of mine is a police officer. He told me that Mayor Nagin has told all of the officers to evacuate their families today.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

According to noaa and the national weather service, the hurricane track has shifted slightly west. The chance that it might go slightly west of the city has convinced me that it is definitely necessary to leave as that could lead to the worst case scenario described above. Also, some models suggest that it might reach a category 5 in intensity. Others suggest that it will remain a category 3, but I'm not taking any chances.

Mrs. Eaglesfan went to work today, and I'm going to do that daily job today, but I'm calling my boss in a few minutes and letting him know that I'm evacuating unless there is a drastic shift in the track by the 10 PM update tonight. Mrs. Eaglesfan is telling her boss that she won't be in tomorrow (or potentially for the next few days.)

Another factor pushing me to leave is that a friend of mine is a police officer. He told me that Mayor Nagin has told all of the officers to evacuate their families today.

Sadly, it is too late to miss the traffic, as I've seen the picks of people leaving, and it is already bumper to bumper. They should be shutting down the in-bound lanes soon, so all lanes will be outbound in the next couple of hours.

[duckman]

I hope you make it out of there okay, EF. Keep us updated!

[terpkristin]

Hmm. This is mildly distressing. My brother lives in New Orleans and isn't exactly of the type that would "be careful"...... ?

/tk

[Doug5984]

I'm about 2 hours west of New Orleans- and people around here are even starting to think about evacuating. The latest update I have seen has it going right over New Orleans, this could be bad- thankfully all my friends got out or are on their way home right now.

[Eaglesfan27]

Tk, I hope your brother ends up being ok.

My mother-in-law is already driving me crazy and we are just discussing plans right now.

My boss was very cool with me evacuating as he is evacuating too.


Hopefully, Mrs. Eaglesfan's boss will be as cool, but if not... oh well. We are definitely leaving tonight/tomorrow morning.

As far as traffic, the contraflow (sp?) is working now, and traffic is flowing nicely at times. However, I realize we may hit heavy traffic even at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

I'll try to update you all. Hopefully, the hotel will have internet access.

[FrogMan]

doc, got you and yours in my thoughts.

Same goes for your brother, tk.

FM

[Lathum]

EF, I was gonna ask you about internet access. Please be safe and remember you can replace possesions, you can't replace family

[jackyl]

Good luck, EF. Get you and yours the hell away from there.

[terpkristin]

Well, we just heard from my brother. He's planning on evacuating to visit friends in Austin, TX, but seems at the moment that he has no idea when he's going to leave (we're hoping sooner rather than later). He said that the roads are kind of crazy right now, with everybody trying to get out. He lives in the "lower bywater" area of New Orleans, which I'm not sure what that means, but so far their evacuations are only "recommended" though everybody seems to be getting out. I'm glad we heard from him (granted we had to call him and wait for him to call us back).

Doc, Doug, anybody else in that area (or area-ish), I'll be thinking about you getting out safely and coming back safely, and not much damage, same as I am for my brother.

/tk

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Doug5984

I'm about 2 hours west of New Orleans- and people around here are even starting to think about evacuating. The latest update I have seen has it going right over New Orleans, this could be bad- thankfully all my friends got out or are on their way home right now.

I pray that it doesn't or if it does hit, it would be like the one recently that greatly lost its strength before coming onshore.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Lathum

EF, I was gonna ask you about internet access. Please be safe and remember you can replace possesions, you can't replace family

I completely agree. I'm leaving behind some costly possessions so that we can fit my mother-in-law, brother-in-law, and sister-in-law in our two cars. I'm not too concerned about the possessions. They will eventually be replaced if they get destroyed.

[GoldenEagle]

Make sure you don't forget the cats!

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Make sure you don't forget the cats!

Not a chance

However, my sister-in-law is allergic to cats which made some interesting decisions in fitting every one and every pet's carrier in the cars. However, we've figured it out. Besides our two cats in one car, their two dogs will be traveling in the other car (fortunately they are both small dogs in small carriers.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Thoughts & prayers for you EF, and your family, and anybody else down there I'm missing right now

Ya'll just get gone & we'll see you all back here when that bitch Katrina has left town.

[Pumpy Tudors]

You know, I don't really keep up with the news much, and I don't even know what the weather forecast is for Greensburg most of the time. I had no idea that this storm was headed toward New Orleans until this evening. The only time I even heard "Hurricane Katrina" before that was during the Jags-Falcons game the other night. EF and everyone else in Louisiana, please keep safe. I've only evacuated once in my life, and that was last year for Ivan. I can guarantee that if my wife and I were still in New Orleans, though, we'd be gone for Katrina. It looks really bad.

terpkristin, the lower Bywater area isn't a terribly dangerous area during a storm, but the problem is that there wouldn't be any easy access to the interstate if the storm is very close. The only two ways onto the interstate involve driving through the French Quarter (always a mess) or getting onto one of the busiest on-ramps in the city. Good luck to him and everybody else down there right now.

[Airhog]

Something you might not of thought of, but bring a list of all your stuff, and the serial numbers. If your stuff is destroyed it will make getting it replaced that much easier with your insurance company...

[Buccaneer]

Pumpy, what are you doing in Greensburg?

[DaddyTorgo]

jeezus EF, I hadn't been keeping up with the weather to hear that this bitch was going to be so bad. Safe drive and all the best to you and yours (as well as everyone else in NO of course). I can't imagine the chaos and the sense of fear/panic down there, especially after last year.

[Ragone]

this brings me to a maybe silly question...

Why would people choose to live in a area thats gonna be a constant evacuation/flood/hurricane threat.... besides the obvious family being there..

And please be safe all who are caught in this

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Ragone

this brings me to a maybe silly question...

Why would people choose to live in a area thats gonna be a constant evacuation/flood/hurricane threat.... besides the obvious family being there..

And please be safe all who are caught in this

Well, I'm about to go to sleep to get up in 6 hours, but I'll answer this:

My wife is from here. She is happy to be back here. She is still very good friends with two of her best friends from elementary/high school and she is much happier now that we have moved back here. She wasn't happy in NJ at all. Also, from my understanding, storms like this only head towards New Orleans once in a generation if that.

However, I think it is a valid question that I might find myself wondering about even more if the city is severely devastated by this storm.

Thanks for the well-wishes and prayers everyone.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Ragone

this brings me to a maybe silly question...

Why would people choose to live in a area thats gonna be a constant evacuation/flood/hurricane threat.... besides the obvious family being there..

And please be safe all who are caught in this

Constant? At one locale along the Gulf and Florida, there would be 0-4 hurricanes per year. Many other places have more frequent threats of extreme weather events (tornados, damaging blizzards, ice storms) or you would also wonder why anyone world live on a major fault zone. My in-laws live in S. Florida and even with the 3 hurricanes that hit them last year, the other 95% of the time it's nice.

[JeeberD]

Take care, Doc!

[HomerJSimpson]

It is probably too late for EF to answer, but a question just hit me...what do they do with the people in the mental hospitals in the path of storms like these? Do they evacuate them?

[TargetPractice6]

A friend of my mine just left for UNO a few weeks ago. I'm worried about him.

[Tigercat]

HJS, they do indeed evacuate patients to "sister" hospitals that have been chosen in advance. At least one Mental Health facility I know of in the New Orleans area usually evacuates its patients to Houston. Likewise, if something serious enough was going on in Houston and the travel to New Orleans was possible, they would evacuate patients there.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Pumpy, what are you doing in Greensburg?

I've mentioned on the forum a few times before, but it's understandable that a lot of people missed it. My wife has become an assistant professor at a university up here. It is her first job out of grad school. We arrived here on August 1, and I'm sure that we're going to be here for at least a few years. It's unlikely that we'll ever move back to New Orleans, but I'm slowly adjusting to living somewhere else.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

HJS, they do indeed evacuate patients to "sister" hospitals that have been chosen in advance. At least one Mental Health facility I know of in the New Orleans area usually evacuates its patients to Houston. Likewise, if something serious enough was going on in Houston and the travel to New Orleans was possible, they would evacuate patients there.

Interesting. It just dawn on me I wonder what happens to them.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

As far as traffic, the contraflow (sp?) is working now, and traffic is flowing nicely at times. However, I realize we may hit heavy traffic even at 4:00 AM tomorrow.

Shoot, Eaglesfan, *I* was going to leave at 4:00 AM. Does everybody have this same plan? Might have to bump it up to 3:00. :-)

This is the first time I've evacuated for a hurricane genuinely thinking I might not have a home to come back to. Short of that, I'm at least expecting extensive damage. Whew. I'll tell you what, if this *doesn't* hit New Orleans, they're going to have a big "crying wolf" issue to deal with next time, more so than usual. But, at this point, that sounds like a nice problem to have.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'm watching the webcast from WWL right now, and this is really the first time in my 28 years that I've seen a newscast so serious about a storm. I don't mean that they're never serious, but everyone is being very blunt and direct about this one. There are constant warnings that southeastern Louisiana will not avoid this storm. This storm is not going to completely miss the area. New Orleans will not be spared miraculously again. It may not be a direct hit, and they make sure to say that they don't know yet, but something is definitely going to happen in New Orleans. It's not a matter of whether the storm will affect the city; it's a matter of how strongly the storm will affect the city. I have never heard a newscast urge everyone to evacuate like this. It's 4am here right now, and I meant to go to bed two hours ago, but I can't stop watching this. I think my family down there has evacuated, but now I'm just watching because New Orleans still feels like home to me. I'm so scared that I can't sleep, and I'm over a thousand miles away. Like I said earlier, I had only evacuated once in my entire life, and to be honest, my wife had to drag me away (she's originally from Memphis, so every nearby hurricane spooked her, since these were new experiences for her). I've never really been scared of a hurricane before. This morning, I am.

Please, everybody down there, leave. Urge your extended family and friends to leave. I know the people on this forum are taking it seriously, but please do everything you can for the people you love. I know that there will be people who just won't go, but maybe hearing from the right people will help them make the right decision. I am really scared for my hometown right now, because many people there don't know how to handle this. They think they know, but they don't know. Too many years and too many storms have led to that "crying wolf" effect that LloydLungs mentioned, but now is not the time to be brave. Now is not the time.

[GoldenEagle]

Let's hope the blunt of the storm hits the Gulf Coast of Mississippi. This is also could very well become a Cat 5 storm. It is going to get stronger, no doubt. I am up the road in Mississippi and if I can do anything for anyone, let me know.

[ScottVib]

The Weather Channel interviewed the mayor of Biloxi and he seems devastated about the storms strength and forecast, mandatory evacuations expected later this morning in the area. They keep reiterating that its a "Camille-type storm".

Winds 160 Mph, pressure 908 mb. Should hit tomorrow, current forecast essentially puts it into New Orleans, meaning Gulfport/Biloxi would be on the most dangerous side of the storm. (As they keep reiterating, this storm will completely change the landscape of the shoreline)

Best wishes and good luck to anyone in the storms path, be safe.

[terpkristin]

She's a category 5 now, I hope everybody is out safely or on their way.

Good luck to all, let us know when you get back.

/tk