Official 2008-2009 MLB Offseason Thread

[sterlingice]

Royals kick things off with Leo Nunez to the Fish for Mike Jacobs.

If it were not for the current makeup for the Royals, I'd like this deal for them.

Nunez for Jacobs is a good deal, team independent. Nunez was always hurt when they tried to make him a starter so the best he's going to be is a really good bullpen arm. However, the Royals, in theory, still have a nice back of the bullpen going into next year (Ramirez, Mahay, Soria) and bullpen arms always strike me as witchcraft- good one season, bad the next- so if you can get good value, do it. Jacobs is cheap, empty pop but still pop nonetheless. Guillen led the Royals with 20 homers last year, just to put things in perspective as to how bad the team was power-wise.

But you have to take roster construction into account and the Royals have way too many 1B/DH types already. Gload is still on the team as a bench guy but he's already under contract for 2009. No one is going to trade for him and they're on the hook for $2M. Shealy had a great September, with 7 homers and a good average- showing the form he had when he first came to KC in 2006. However, he was awful and injured for most of 2007 and will bring very little in trade so his value is better in place. Then there's Billy Butler who has shown great potential but is lazy. Still, he's only 22 and went .305/.341/.476 in the second half last year- you just can't give up on that. And Kila's waiting in the wings in AAA after mid 30s in homers last year. But, in short, not even counting Kila, you have Jacobs, Shealy, and Butler competing for 2 starting positions and Gload there to soak up other at bats.

There's talks of Teahen going places. He's valuable as a guy who can play 1B, 3B, and corner outfield competently with decent but not great hitting.

Also, any talk of Greinke... well, the Royals badly need to sign him this offseason. But there's no way he's going in any trade unless the Royals absolutely cannot lock him up. So we don't need the mlbtraderumors.com fan comment trades of mlb_scrub1, mediocre_prospect1, and low_minors_prospect1 for Greinke "because they're still building and need more pieces".

It's going to be a hugely important offseason for the Royals. How about other teams?

SI

[Fighter of Foo]

I thought they got Jacobs to be the big half of a platoon at DH with Butler? Butler's "proven" he cannot hit righties as his line against them has sucked for two years now.

It's top 5 production at DH for whatever Jacobs gets in arbitration plus the minimum for Butler. I'd day that's a good deal for a live arm with little control.

[DeToxRox]

Tigers enter a strange offseason. I think they'll be a .500 team next season as presently constructed, but they don't want to increase payroll.

Ideally they'd sign Chad Cordero to a minor league deal and see what he has left, or even an incentive laden deal with a club option. Ditto for Jason Varitek. I don't like him but if he can come here and platoon with Dusty Ryan, and help the Staff, well it's better then Inge. Again, it'd have to be an incentive laden deal but I doubt Boras does it.

The big story is will they deal Maggs. I hope so because we need to get younger and he is the most valuable commodity not named Miggy, Granderson , Verlander or Porcello. Magglio to Anaheim makes sense, especially if Tex leaves. He can do their OF/DH rotation with Vlad. Would they do Magglio for Wood/Adenhart? Probably not but that is the kind of deal the Tigs need.

Beyond that, who knows. They might go after Fuentes, but hes the only big time FA I can see them going for, and evne then I don't like it. We'll see though.

[lordscarlet]

Has anyone heard anything about the Nationals? I haven't geared up on reading any of the blogs for the off season. I'm guess it will be a lot of prospects at best, and nothing at worst. I doubt they will make a splash on any big free agents.

[Travis]

Count me in as very curious to see what direction the Jays will go. They've got a lot of young talent coming up but desperately need a big stick at DH or 1B (depending on what they do with Overbay). A lot of decisions to be made on who to rest the offense on next season and whether or not they make a serious push to bring AJ back as the #2 behind Halladay. Comments by Roy this year make it sound like another distant third finish in the AL East or worse will pretty much mean he'll be looking to leave town in favor of a contender mean they'd better get their act in gear and get the pieces in place to make the man happy.

If it were me I'd try and bring Barajas back as the full time catcher and look for a #4 or 5 hitter for the DH role (I think another season with Cito brings Overbay back to the gap/doubles hitter he can be). So an opening day lineup of something like:

C: Barajas
1B: Overbay
2B: Hill
3B: Rolen
SS: MacDonald
LF: Lind
CF: Wells
RF: Rios
DH: ?

Use Snider to spell the OF and 1B with Scutaro as the utility guy on the infield. Inglett seems to do pretty well as a spot guy and can play IF or OF which is a nice luxury. Pitching wise they're pretty solid even without AJ back though some late season injuries could put them behind the 8 ball. Get that big stick for the middle of the order and give a lot of these guys more time with Cito and the offense *should* be there. Just nice having optimism about the manager though it is too bad JP is still kicking around.

[samifan24]

The Indians need to trade for a good second baseman and then move Cabrera to short and Peralta to third. They also need to add another outfield bat, another starter and a good closer and decide between Martinez and Shoppach for the starting catcher and deal whichever one they don't have starting.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Travis

Use Snider to spell the OF

Travis Snider is the real deal.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Has anyone heard anything about the Nationals? I haven't geared up on reading any of the blogs for the off season. I'm guess it will be a lot of prospects at best, and nothing at worst. I doubt they will make a splash on any big free agents.

I've heard speculation (Was on MLBTR.com a while ago) that the Nats could potentially make a run for Matt Holliday in a trade.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

I've heard speculation (Was on MLBTR.com a while ago) that the Nats could potentially make a run for Matt Holliday in a trade.

Interesting. At the beginning of the season it seemed that the Nationals were overloaded with outfielders, but by the middle of the season Paul Lo Duca was out there. The Nats have a LOT of outfield busts to deal with.

Pretty much, the Nats weak spots are:

* Starting pitching
* Middle Infield
* First Base
* LF, RF

And there's a question mark on the closer. I don't see the post season for quite a few years (decades?). I'm just glad they reduced our season ticket seats by 30%. :-P

[DeToxRox]

I am not sure how FA will go this year. I think CC and Tex will be Yanks, Lowe will go back to Boston, KRod stays in Anaheim, Fuentes lands in Detroit and that is all I'd say to be sure for now.

I have no idea where Burnett and Sheets land. Atlanta for one of them, maybe? I dunno. A lot of intrigue though.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by samifan24

Travis Snider is the real deal.

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but I'd prefer they not go with Snider/Lind as their LF/DH combo. Add a big stick for 1-2 years while these guys acclimate themselves to the pro game and don't thrust them into the forefront from the start. I hope both turn out to be legit MLB hitters (and think Cito et al is a great situation for them to come into) but don't rely on it.

[Warhammer]

I would love to see the Angels keep Texeira. The one thing they need is another bat. They let KRod walk and move Shields to the closing role.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Travis

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but I'd prefer they not go with Snider/Lind as their LF/DH combo. Add a big stick for 1-2 years while these guys acclimate themselves to the pro game and don't thrust them into the forefront from the start. I hope both turn out to be legit MLB hitters (and think Cito et al is a great situation for them to come into) but don't rely on it.

I think Snider is already a better ML hitter than Lind. He's just that talented. I do agree that the Jays need to add another outfield bat to avoid relying on their young guys too soon but, then again, what exactly are they relying on them to do? It's not like the Jays have a shot at anything the next few years anyway. Toronto is a few years away from a contending team anyway, what with the lack of offense in that lineup and the way the coaching staff mismanaged pitchers the last few years, so they might as well go into a full rebuild.

[Travis]

Originally Posted by samifan24

I think Snider is already a better ML hitter than Lind. He's just that talented. I do agree that the Jays need to add another outfield bat to avoid relying on their young guys too soon but, then again, what exactly are they relying on them to do? It's not like the Jays have a shot at anything the next few years anyway. Toronto is a few years away from a contending team anyway, what with the lack of offense in that lineup and the way the coaching staff mismanaged pitchers the last few years, so they might as well go into a full rebuild.

We'll have to disagree on that one. A healthy squad next year with a couple smart moves during the offseason isn't very far off. Even going the route of starting Snider over Lind in LF, if they opened the season with:

Hill, Rios, Wells, DH, Rolen, Overbay, Snider, Barajas, MacDonald

This sort of lineup would only get a bonus if Rios develops a power stroke and the hope would be that Snider or Lind would develop well enough to eventually take the 5 spot over from Rolen (or even Overbay in that spot to split up the left handed bats). Given their performance since Cito took over I see no reason not to expect results from the team.

I'll probably be disappointed in the end, but I don't think they're that far off.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Travis

I'll probably be disappointed in the end, but I don't think they're that far off.

In truth, I think the Rays aren't that bad of a team. I just don't see them getting past Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees in the division the next three or four years.

[Bearcat729]

The Reds are looking at possibly signing Mark Mulder. Not sure why but if he wanted to come very cheap I say give him a shot.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by samifan24

The Indians need to trade for a second baseman

How does Luis Castillo sound?

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Logan

How does Luis Castillo sound?

Brian Roberts or Kelly Johnson only, please.

[lungs]

Brewers name Ken Macha the manager, and surprisingly Dale Sveum may take a coaching spot with the team after being passed over for the managerial position.

Given that Doug Melvin narrowed it down to Macha, Bob Brenly and Willie Randolph, I'm happy with the choice. Brenly would've been a disaster.

[Lathum]

Glad to see Tatis re upd for 1.7 mil, he provided a nice spark.

I know there is no way the Mets sigh KRod with 10 mil still to come to Wagner, but they need to do something for the pen and the pitching staff in general. I doubt they bring Perez back, but I would love to see them make a move for Burnett or even Sheets.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

I thought they got Jacobs to be the big half of a platoon at DH with Butler? Butler's "proven" he cannot hit righties as his line against them has sucked for two years now.

You're correct. Moore brought Jacobs in to face right-handed pitching. Moore has already mentioned that Shealy's trade value is up right now after his big finish last year. He'll be traded. Gload will be the Royals' utility guy, as he can play both corner infield positions as well as the outfield. He doesn't factor in at 1B barring injuries. The Hawaiian player in AAA likely will get another year down there, probably to learn a new position so they can fit him into the lineup.

I think Teahan is the odd man out, which isn't necessarily a bad thing as Moore reportedly has some very good interest in him.

[lungs]

For a team that struggles in the OBP department, bringing Mike Jacobs on board only makes the problem worse. Even against RHP he managed only a measly .315 OBP this year.

The power is nice but the poor OBP seriously deflates any value Jacobs would have.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

The Reds are looking at possibly signing Mark Mulder. Not sure why but if he wanted to come very cheap I say give him a shot.

Eric Milton, anyone?

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Eric Milton, anyone?

I'd hope Mulder wouldn't be expecting $8 million/year

Or that the Reds were dumb enough to give him $8 million/year.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by lungs

For a team that struggles in the OBP department, bringing Mike Jacobs on board only makes the problem worse. Even against RHP he managed only a measly .315 OBP this year.

The power is nice but the poor OBP seriously deflates any value Jacobs would have.

Dayton Moore talked about that in this morning's article about the trade. We'll see if the coaching and GM are right/wrong.......

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/867789.html

Jacobs was often pulled for a defensive replacement, but the primary knock on him is his low on-base percentage. He walked just 36 times last year, and his .299 on-base percentage was the seventh-lowest in baseball among players with 500 or more plate appearances.

Moore, manager Trey Hillman and new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer have publicly tabbed improving on-base percentage as a primary way to improve a weak offense.

“I don’t walk a lot,” Jacobs said. “I’m up there to swing the bat; I’m up there to drive runs in and be productive that way. Is it something I’d like to work on? Absolutely.”

That on-base percentage was a career low for Jacobs, as was his .247 batting average. Moore hinted that Seitzer saw some things on video that he thinks show a potential for improving Jacobs’ on-base percentage.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by lungs

Or that the Reds were dumb enough to give him $8 million/year.

They gave Corey Patterson $3 million.

They are definitely dumb enough to do some stupid crap.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Dayton Moore talked about that in this morning's article about the trade. We'll see if the coaching and GM are right/wrong.......

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/867789.html

I guess Mike Jacobs is better than what they were trotting out there but I have to think the Royals may have jumped the gun.

My Brewers will be listening to offers for Prince Fielder.... Sure, it'd take a hell of a lot more to get Fielder than it did Jacobs. But you get what you pay for.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

They gave Corey Patterson $3 million.

They are definitely dumb enough to do some stupid crap.

Wayne Krivsky gave Corey Patterson $3 million. I'd hope Walt Jocketty isn't as dumb as Wayne Krivsky.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by lungs

I guess Mike Jacobs is better than what they were trotting out there but I have to think the Royals may have jumped the gun.

My Brewers will be listening to offers for Prince Fielder.... Sure, it'd take a hell of a lot more to get Fielder than it did Jacobs. But you get what you pay for.

Nunez was an injury away from ending his career. He's been injury prone in the past, so to get a player like this for him was a pretty good move IMO. Moore similarly tossed out Dotel last year a week or two before he got injured for the same reason. I'm going to trust Moore's judgement on this one.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by samifan24

Brian Roberts or Kelly Johnson only, please.

Damn it, my joke was missed.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Nunez was an injury away from ending his career. He's been injury prone in the past, so to get a player like this for him was a pretty good move IMO. Moore similarly tossed out Dotel last year a week or two before he got injured for the same reason. I'm going to trust Moore's judgement on this one.

I'm not saying the Royals gave up a king's ransom for Jacobs. But in terms of actually making the Royals a contender, Mike Jacobs is not helping matters.

Simply put, having a guy that couldn't even eclipse a .300 OBP last year should not be getting the bulk of the playing time in a corner spot. Much less a corner spot where the most offense is expected.

He could quite possibly be the worst first baseman in all of baseball according to Keith Law. I'm not sure how he could possibly be worse than Prince Fielder, but hey, I usually respect Law's opinion quite a bit.

Law also notes in his latest blog entry that the Marlins would've likely just non-tendered Jacobs in December so they probably didn't even need to give up Nunez for Jacobs.

It just doesn't make sense for only the third team in the AL to draw less than 400 walks since 1931 to pick up Mike Jacobs.

The Royals are making a big problem even worse.

[Scarecrow]

I am one of the few Royal fans that likes this trade. And here is why (stealing from someone else on another board):

"Jacobs power numbers stack up against nearly every other hitter in the Majors. He homered every 14.9 at bats in 2008, which ranked 10th in the Majors and third behind preeminent sluggers Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols among first basemen. Jacobs played half his games at Dolphin Stadium, which is 345 down the right field line and 385 to the alley and plays extremely tough for left-handed power hitters, as evidenced by the Marlins home run record for a left-handed batter standing at 33 by Carlos Delgado. Jacobs fell just 1 shy of that last season with only 477 at bats.

Just a note here, Jacobs posted a .378 on-base percentage in July this past season and a solid .335 pct. from July on."

[sterlingice]

As I said in the first post, I'm torn.

Fighter of Foo has the best case scenario with a Butler/Jacobs platoon where you have, say, Shealy and Butler in the lineup against lefties at 1B/DH and then Jacobs and Gload or someone else against righties. Platooning your DH seems like a waste of a roster spot, but when you don't have the talent, you do what you can. It was embarassing for Ross Gload to be a red hot Ryan Shealy September away from 400 AB but he's useful off the bench for 100-200 AB per season.

MBBF was dead on with Nunez being "an injury away from ending his career". He could be a great 8th inning guy or maybe even a closer, given a chance. However, he is badly injury prone and KC has a surplus in the bullpen with Ramirez, Mahay, and Soria for next year. And, again, there's the witchcraft nature of bullpens (and I'm a bit worried about Mahay being overworked last year).

In the end, I'm good with the trade from the perspective of Nunez for Jacobs is a good swap straight up for KC. However, if it forces them to sell low on Butler or Kila or give up on Shealy, then this deal falls decidedly into the "bad things" category.

SI

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by lungs

I'd hope Mulder wouldn't be expecting $8 million/year

Or that the Reds were dumb enough to give him $8 million/year.

For the first time in my adult life the Reds don't need to sign a pitcher. Right now Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Voltron are guaranteed spots and Owings/Bailey/Thompson/Ramirez will be fine for the 5.

[DeToxRox]

Not sure if anyone saw Keith Law's blog, but he absolutely panned the Jacobs move saying it was wrong and Jacobs was looked at by KC as an Everyday 1B when he obviously isn't.

Also he said the Marlins wouldn't have tendered him.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

For the first time in my adult life the Reds don't need to sign a pitcher. Right now Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Voltron are guaranteed spots and Owings/Bailey/Thompson/Ramirez will be fine for the 5.

Owings will end up making the staff (maybe as starter or maybe as long relief) just because of his value as a PH. I think he had something like 2 GW hits in September alone.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Owings will end up making the staff (maybe as starter or maybe as long relief) just because of his value as a PH. I think he had something like 2 GW hits in September alone.

I wish they could have sent him to winter ball as an outfielder to see how that would work. There are certainly spots available for guys that can hit on this team.

[RedKingGold]

Philadelphia Phillies Expected Free Agents based on: Top 50 MLB Free Agents 2009 | MLB Free Agents | Top 50 Baseball Free Agents

1B Wes Helms (Gone) - Shows him as on Philly, but he was traded before the end of last season.

3B Pedro Feliz (Back) - I think he'll be in higher demand, but I'd bet we'll get him re-signed. Really solid fielder, and has proven he can get a hit or two.

OF Pat Burrell (Gone) - Writing was on the wall when he led the victory parade. Believe it or not, I'd like to see him back. However, I doubt the Phillies will pay him anything close to what he wants. By signing and starting Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth, I think that Philly's philosophy is that outfielders are easy to come by. I'm not really sure where he'd go, but I imagine he'd fit in well with an AL team. As a last word, when you draft a guy first overall, the goal is that he will help lead you to a title before he leaves. While Burrell's definitely had his struggles, we wouldn't have won a title or survived the season without his performance in 2008. God speed Pat-the-Bat.

P Kris Benson (Gone) - Still not sure he's even on the team.

P Jaime Moyer (Back) - Philadelphia native and the team stuck by him when many others thought he was gone. He'll definitely need a raise and potentially two more years, but I feel pretty confidence Moyer will be back in Philly next year.

P Scott Eyre (Gone) - Although I've read that many expect him back, and I'd like him back, I get the feeling he'll get an offer from someone and move on. Plus, I don't rule out Philadelphia trying to get another lefty bullpen guy in the off-season.

P Tom Gordon (Gone) - Just had surgery on Oct. 15th to repair the ulnar. I wonder if a team will even sign him this year?

OF So Taguchi (Gone) - I think Philly might look to improve their bench elsewhere.

For those who are unaware, potentially the biggest move this off-season was already made with Reuben Amaro Jr. getting the GM job after Pat Gillick retired. Amaro's a strong candidate and I think as long as Mike Arbuckle sticks around, we're in good shape. Word is, Amaro was offered the Houston GM job last year (before former Philly GM Ed Wade received it), but turned it down after Gillick told Amaro he'd replace him in 2009.

As far as expected moves,

-Despite what I said above about the "Phillie's outfielder philosophy", the team was apparently really close to getting Matt Holiday last year. What killed the talks was the unwillingness to part with Shane Victorino and two prospects (Carrasco and Happ). Don't be surprised if Philly sneaks into the discussions and is able to get Holliday.

-I think there's more smoke than fire on the Manny Ramierz rumors. There's a part of me that would really like to dance with the devil on Ramierez (Utley-Howard-Ramirez = OMFG), but I think it's just too much of a risk with our current chemistry. If we lost the World Series, I'd probably see it more. But with a win, I think the temptation will be much less.

-The Phillies should actually be buyers on the FA market. Burrell's contract was an albatross and Abreu's contract comes fully off the books this year. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see us pick up a few players.

-Assuming Moyer is re-signed, I think Philly feels pretty good about their rotation. The wild-card is J.A. Happ. If he's ready to be the #5, then I don't see us being big spenders there. However, I think we will be in the running for Brian Fuentes (assuming the Mets don't blow us out of the water).

-In the lineup, we need another outfielder and power off the bench. Adam Dunn is probably too expensive but Bobby Kielty might be a good fit here.

[Carlos Beltran]

I'm now taking requests to claim my team is the team to beat over their team.

[miked]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

For the first time in my adult life the Reds don't need to sign a pitcher. Right now Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Voltron are guaranteed spots and Owings/Bailey/Thompson/Ramirez will be fine for the 5.

I'm out of the Reds information loop, but I may have to root for them if they have a guy named "Voltron". If I were him, I'd legally drop my first name and just go by Voltron from here on out. Totally awesome.

[JPhillips]

His name is actually Edinson Volquez, but he was so good this year he earned Voltron as his nickname.

[miked]

I may go to more Braves games if I don't have to watch Chuck James pitch anymore. That and Kelly Johnson steal ABs. Maybe they should call him Marcus Giles, Jr.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

His name is actually Edinson Volquez, but he was so good this year he earned Voltron as his nickname.

It's also a precursor to his future after Dusty Baker. IE when he actually has a robotic elbow due to abuse.

[JPhillips]

If I just clap hard enough Dusty won't destroy our pitchers.

[sterlingice]

Also, in an "eh" move, the Royals are bringing back Miguel Olivo in an attempt to further destroy their team OBP. That said, it probably means John Buck will be traded or waived. Not sure why you keep the older guy when they're almost identical players- Olivo can throw guys out (Buck threw out something like 1 of 35 base stealers last year) and has a little more pop (.411 to .398 career SLG) while Buck handles pitchers a little better and gets on base a little more (.298 to .275 OBP). They're both righties and Buck is two years younger- both would have cost about ~2.5M this upcoming year either from arbitration (Buck) or club option (Olivo).

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Not sure if anyone saw Keith Law's blog, but he absolutely panned the Jacobs move saying it was wrong and Jacobs was looked at by KC as an Everyday 1B when he obviously isn't.

Also he said the Marlins wouldn't have tendered him.

Keith Law was right. Mike Jacobs is a terrible player, and the Royals have like 6 guys at the "positions" he can play (I'm not sure I'd count him as a 1B, but technically he did play there.) Maybe you can move Billy Butler to SS.

[Carlos Beltran]

WooHoo! Another gold glove for me, and one for my boy David Wright!

[Butter]

Nice to see Brandon Phillips nab a gold glove.

[Qwikshot]

Just a rumor, but Jimmy Rollins may be available for the right price...

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extraba...et-for-giants/

EDIT:Link

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Just a rumor, but Jimmy Rollins may be available for the right price...

Hot Stove thoughts: Furcal a sensible target for Giants | Extra Baggs

EDIT:Link

Not a huge shock, to be honest. I think there is some concern that Rollins peaked offensively in 2007 and will soon start declining. However, he's still very valuble defensively and I'm sure Rollins getting traded would kill just about any chance of Howard re-signing with the team.

I think the bigger issue is that I just don't see a team blowing us away with an offer for the same issue above. The only "real" untouchable players on the Phillies are Utley and Hamels. Just about anyone else can be had for the "right" price.