Official 2008-2009 MLB Offseason Thread

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Logan

Official.

Hopefully we can pull off the rumored deal of Heilman plus another player to Colorado for Street, and then sign one more reliever.

Landing Street for the 8th and then maybe signing Juan Cruz would be amazing.

[MikeVic]

I'll just chime in that this sucks. I was actually getting excited about baseball again. Jays are in a division with the ALCS representative, PLUS the Red Sox and Yankees... they had a decent team last year, and were going to either keep Burnett or replace him with a good pitcher, as well as acquire a big bat.

Now it seems as if they'll lose Burnett, and not sign a big bat at all. Great.

[JPhillips]

The Reds are trying to corner the Hernandez market today. They traded Ryan Freel to the Orioles for Ramon and then signed Livan. Ramon will likely platoon at catcher with Hanigan and Livan is a pretty classic wash out pitcher Jocketty sign.

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by Logan

Considering Wagner had no problem allowing runners on, and then was still ineffective, I'll look forward to the improvement !

I don't see this as an improvement actually. Wagner has been as good as, if not better than, K-Rod over the past 5-6 years.

[Logan]

Wagner was beyond awful last year, and is out for 2009. How is that not an improvement?

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The Reds are trying to corner the Hernandez market today. They traded Ryan Freel to the Orioles for Ramon and then signed Livan. Ramon will likely platoon at catcher with Hanigan and Livan is a pretty classic wash out pitcher Jocketty sign.

The Reds have not signed Livan Hernandez. Apparently the reporter from Seattle got confused over which Hernandez was going to the Reds. Thus far they have not signed Livan.

[JPhillips]

Damnit. I just bought 200 shares of Hernandez hoping fora runup.

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by Logan

Wagner was beyond awful last year, and is out for 2009. How is that not an improvement?

Seriously? I'm not sure how a pitcher with a 2.30 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP can be considered beyond awful.

Wagner allowed a ton fewer baserunners last year than Rodriguez. Their strikeout numbers were similar, but Wagner allowed fewer hits/9 and had a much better K/BB ratio. Obviously Wagner isn't an option for this year, but K-Rod won't be that much of an upgrade for the Mets over previous years.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Hammer755

Seriously? I'm not sure how a pitcher with a 2.30 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP can be considered beyond awful.

Wagner allowed a ton fewer baserunners last year than Rodriguez. Their strikeout numbers were similar, but Wagner allowed fewer hits/9 and had a much better K/BB ratio. Obviously Wagner isn't an option for this year, but K-Rod won't be that much of an upgrade for the Mets over previous years.

Good thing numbers don't tell the full story. I watched Wagner pitch every game. His fastball had slowed and his slider didn't bite like it used to. He also had the habit of being completely off from the second he stepped foot on the mound, and wouldn't be able to recover until the game was lost. There's no one guy more responsible for the Mets not making the playoffs. The fucker blew 3 saves in 5 days -- 3 straight opportunities.

Saves might be a bullshit stat, but 7 blown saves in 34 opportunities is very telling.

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by Logan

Good thing numbers don't tell the full story. I watched Wagner pitch every game.

I gave up right around here. 99% of the time somebody says this, the numbers do tell the full story.

Look, I think this is a pretty good deal for the Mets. I just don't think that the K-Rod of 2007-2008 is any better at all than what a healthy Billy Wagner would have given you. If you're looking for comfortable 1-2-3 saves, Rodriguez is not the guy to hang your hat on.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Logan

Good thing numbers don't tell the full story. I watched Wagner pitch every game. His fastball had slowed and his slider didn't bite like it used to. He also had the habit of being completely off from the second he stepped foot on the mound, and wouldn't be able to recover until the game was lost. There's no one guy more responsible for the Mets not making the playoffs. The fucker blew 3 saves in 5 days -- 3 straight opportunities.

Saves might be a bullshit stat, but 7 blown saves in 34 opportunities is very telling.

From someone who watched K-Rod pitch a lot, I can assure you that his # of saves are not the whole story. He's a regression back to the mean away from being just as average as Wagner. I can't remember many 1-2-3 innings or even 1-2-3-4 innings for that matter.

Personally, I wouldn't be happy paying any more than 5 mil a season, and I'm very glad the Angels didn't bite.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Hammer755

I just don't think that the K-Rod of 2007-2008 is any better at all than what a healthy Billy Wagner would have given you.

Awesome, and since there is no such thing, why is this even being discussed?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I can't remember many 1-2-3 innings or even 1-2-3-4 innings for that matter.

Of his 76 appearances in 2008
25 without allowing a baserunner
2 games pitching 1 inning while facing 3 batters (GIDP's)
19 allowing 1 baserunner (aka "1-2-3-4 inning")
2 allowing 2 baserunners but facing 4 batters with 1 IP (GIDP's)

Total of 48 (of 76) appearances

[Hammer755]

Originally Posted by Logan

Awesome, and since there is no such thing, why is this even being discussed?

IIRC, you compared him to Wagner initially. I was responding to that.

Originally Posted by Logan

Considering Wagner had no problem allowing runners on, and then was still ineffective, I'll look forward to the improvement !

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Of his 76 appearances in 2008
25 without allowing a baserunner
2 games pitching 1 inning while facing 3 batters (GIDP's)
19 allowing 1 baserunner (aka "1-2-3-4 inning")
2 allowing 2 baserunners but facing 4 batters with 1 IP (GIDP's)

Total of 48 (of 76) appearances

So 28, more than 1/3 of his appearances, he allowed at least two runners and faced 5 or more batters? lol...good stats to find, Jon.

Love K-Rod's heart and fire and what he did in 2002. At that price for those results, I don't miss him. Good to see my eyes tell the same story the numbers do.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Personally, I wouldn't be happy paying any more than 5 mil a season, and I'm very glad the Angels didn't bite.

Wait, so you're actually an Angels fan, too? I figured with all the stuff I talk about with the Angels, you would have responded by now, so I assumed you're a Dodgers fan.

It would be nice if I didn't have to carry the Halos' banner alone.

Oh, and I 100% agree with you.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Hammer755

IIRC, you compared him to Wagner initially. I was responding to that.

Yes, in response to CR saying:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And frankly I will be very interested to see how Franky reacts the first time he is taken to task by the New York media for the usual BS he brings, where he doesn't even seem to try until he gets two runners on.

So if he's first effective after allowing runners to reach, and Wagner isn't effective after allowing runners to reach, that's the improvement I'm talking about .

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So 28, more than 1/3 of his appearances, he allowed at least two runners and faced 5 or more batters? lol...good stats to find, Jon.

22 appearances of 5 batters or more, and unless I miscounted one somewhere the rest should be appearances with more than one baserunner in less than one inning of work.

[Chief Rum]

Actually, I thought Logan's response was pretty funny at the time (and still do). I'll take back partly my agreement with bhhloy. I WOULD have paid K-Rod $5 M. That's not that much in the baseball scheme of things.

Seven figures, though? No way. I have nothing against the Mets or K-Rod, and as I said before, I hope it works out great for them. I'm also glad he's in thge other league in the furthest division he could get. But the realist in me says there is a lot of room for "regret" in the deal he just signed, and I am quite happy we didn't give him the same (and we actually offered it to him, or close to it, back when he and his agent were deluded in thinking they could get more).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

22 appearances of 5 batters or more, and unless I miscounted one somewhere the rest should be appearances with more than one baserunner in less than one inning of work.

76-48, didn't you put up? That's 28.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

22 appearances of 5 batters or more, and unless I miscounted one somewhere the rest should be appearances with more than one baserunner in less than one inning of work.

Oh never mind. I forgot about the less than one inning appearances.

That's still a lot.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

NY Post reporting that CC Sabathia has accepted the Yankees' offer.

CC SABATHIA PICKS YANKEES - New York Post

Other outlets reporting on the Post report, so no true independent confirmation yet.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, I thought Logan's response was pretty funny at the time (and still do).

Thanks man!

I'll take back partly my agreement with bhhloy. I WOULD have paid K-Rod $5 M. That's not that much in the baseball scheme of things.

Yeah, when average setup guys are being paid in that range, you can't tell me K-Rod isn't worth $2-3MM more.

Seven figures, though? No way. I have nothing against the Mets or K-Rod, and as I said before, I hope it works out great for them. I'm also glad he's in thge other league in the furthest division he could get. But the realist in me says there is a lot of room for "regret" in the deal he just signed, and I am quite happy we didn't give him the same (and we actually offered it to him, or close to it, back when he and his agent were deluded in thinking they could get more).

(assume you mean 8 figures) I totally see where you're coming from; hell, I said your comments throughout the season were the primary reason why I was hesitant about getting him in the first place. For the same reason that you're able to paint a better picture of his performance than the average fan would see by looking at his numbers, I can do the same with Wagner -- that was my point in the last few posts. Look, the money doesn't matter. The Mets are basically printing it these days and will never NOT go after a player because they have $12MM tied up in K-Rod. But they would possibly stay away from upgrading that position if someone became available in 2010 if they had him on the books for 3 more years instead of 1, if he had gotten the original 5 year deal (plus a possible option) he wanted. Barring a catastrophic drop in performance, he should be fine for this short deal.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

NY Post reporting that CC Sabathia has accepted the Yankees' offer.

CC SABATHIA PICKS YANKEES - New York Post

Other outlets reporting on the Post report, so no true independent confirmation yet.

But.. but.. he has a home out on the West Coast and he liked his time in Milwaukee. I just can't believe he took the highest offer.

I'm... I'm.. I'm just shocked. I mean, who saw that coming?

[ISiddiqui]

LOL!

[molson]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I can't remember many 1-2-3 innings or even 1-2-3-4 innings for that matter.

Everybody wants the "lights out" 1-2-3 closer, and he just doesn't exist. I think Angles fans are underrating K-Rod quite a bit.

[Logan]

What's funny is listening to Yankee fans who, just yesterday when it seemed like Sabathia really was going to end up out west, said things along the lines of "He's not that good anyway!", "He doesn't deserve a deal like Santana!", "He's going to be 350 lbs in Year 3 of that deal!", etc...and now they all have to backpedal.

BTW, this just got me thinking, and maybe I'm completely wrong...but aren't there very few Yankee fans on this board, at least comparitively speaking? Unless they have just been very quiet since their last WS title, I can't think of many off the top of my head.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by molson

Everybody wants the "lights out" 1-2-3 closer, and he just doesn't exist. I think Angles fans are underrating K-Rod quite a bit.

Kind of my original point...Mariano still qualifies, Papelbon does too...then you have guys who have come close to fitting recently but are still unproven long term. Putz, Lidge, Jenks probably fit into that second tier? And even Lidge...perfect in save chances all year...but I saw a decent number of Phillies games and he was definitely far from lights out, and many saves came after an adventure.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Here is hoping that C.C. is known as Hideki Irabu II.

I would love to see the Yank-mees payroll hit $400 million and they win 72 games.

[RedKingGold]

7-years and 160 million.

Wow.

[Dr. Sak]

What will be higher...CC's weight or the Yankees Payroll in millions?

[RedKingGold]

By signing F-Rod, the Mets have guaranteed that their young players will be able to "see" a World Series ring before they retire.

[Jon]

Originally Posted by Logan

BTW, this just got me thinking, and maybe I'm completely wrong...but aren't there very few Yankee fans on this board, at least comparitively speaking? Unless they have just been very quiet since their last WS title, I can't think of many off the top of my head.

I'm a Yankee fan, but I'm primarily a lurker. I'm also not an annoying Yankee fan who thinks that if the Yankees lose, it's because of some massive conspiracy. I'm also not one of those fans who sit there and whine when the Yankees don't get their person and take a stupid dig at the player. If I do take a dig, it has nothing to do if the player is with the Yankees or not. (I do take issue with Red Sox fans, though, at least the obnoxious bandwagon ones that have suddenly appeared since 2004. But the real bad ones seem to be those who just became fans. I have a hard time taking issue with the team. I particularly like the Red Sox younger players. Varitek, though--a tool Ortiz--still bitter over the fact that Steinbrenner could have had him).
That having been said, I do think Sabathia is going to balloon to 350 lbs in year 3 of the Yankee contract. I don't think he's worth the 7 year, 160 million dollar deal. And I'm not sure if he'll be able to take the "We think we're better than you cuz we're in NY" NY media.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Sounds like Furcal is down to LA and KC. Moore has already said that Aviles would move to 2B if the Royals were able to sign Furcal.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Jon

I'm a Yankee fan, but I'm primarily a lurker. I'm also not an annoying Yankee fan who thinks that if the Yankees lose, it's because of some massive conspiracy. I'm also not one of those fans who sit there and whine when the Yankees don't get their person and take a stupid dig at the player. If I do take a dig, it has nothing to do if the player is with the Yankees or not. (I do take issue with Red Sox fans, though, at least the obnoxious bandwagon ones that have suddenly appeared since 2004. But the real bad ones seem to be those who just became fans. I have a hard time taking issue with the team. I particularly like the Red Sox younger players. Varitek, though--a tool Ortiz--still bitter over the fact that Steinbrenner could have had him).
That having been said, I do think Sabathia is going to balloon to 350 lbs in year 3 of the Yankee contract. I don't think he's worth the 7 year, 160 million dollar deal. And I'm not sure if he'll be able to take the "We think we're better than you cuz we're in NY" NY media.

We must clone this lurker and replace the rest of those tools with him!

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Jon

(I do take issue with Red Sox fans, though, at least the obnoxious bandwagon ones that have suddenly appeared since 2004. But the real bad ones seem to be those who just became fans)

Unlike the rash of Yankee fans who suddenly appeared since 1998.

[Logan]

Updates on Yankee deals:

The $160MM Sabathia deal reportedly includes an opt-out clause after 2011. He will have been paid $69MM for those 3 years by then.

They are reportedly also close to signing Derek Lowe to a 4 year, $66MM deal.

I'm not sure which is worse.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Jon

I'm a Yankee fan, but I'm primarily a lurker. I'm also not an annoying Yankee fan who thinks that if the Yankees lose, it's because of some massive conspiracy. I'm also not one of those fans who sit there and whine when the Yankees don't get their person and take a stupid dig at the player. If I do take a dig, it has nothing to do if the player is with the Yankees or not. (I do take issue with Red Sox fans, though, at least the obnoxious bandwagon ones that have suddenly appeared since 2004. But the real bad ones seem to be those who just became fans. I have a hard time taking issue with the team. I particularly like the Red Sox younger players. Varitek, though--a tool Ortiz--still bitter over the fact that Steinbrenner could have had him).
That having been said, I do think Sabathia is going to balloon to 350 lbs in year 3 of the Yankee contract. I don't think he's worth the 7 year, 160 million dollar deal. And I'm not sure if he'll be able to take the "We think we're better than you cuz we're in NY" NY media.

One post, and I already like the local FOFC Yanks fanbase more than the FOFC Red Sox fanbase!

[DeToxRox]

I stand by my claim that Sabathia is going to be 350 lbs by year 3. The dude is so fat already, and his waist just keeps expanding. Now multiply that by 10 with all the money he is getting.

Oh man this will be sweet.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

This is truly the silly season. No point in living and dying with each mlbtraderumors.com update.

I loved the Francouer for Greinke rumor that came out of the Boston Globe yesterday. I can't believe real beat writers are allowed to report these sorts of things.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Logan

Look, the money doesn't matter. The Mets are basically printing it these days and will never NOT go after a player because they have $12MM tied up in K-Rod. But they would possibly stay away from upgrading that position if someone became available in 2010 if they had him on the books for 3 more years instead of 1, if he had gotten the original 5 year deal (plus a possible option) he wanted. Barring a catastrophic drop in performance, he should be fine for this short deal.

BJ Ryan 5/$47
Joe Nathan 4/$47
Francisco Cordero 4/$46
Mariano Rivera 3/$45
Billy Wagner (older) 4/$42
Brad Lidge 3/$37.5

Like I posted already. I can't believe the deals that can be had this year when you're comparing this year to the last 2 years. You can get a great bargain, players at 2/3rds the cost they were over the past couple of years. I'll have a post about this in a little bit.

Where does KRod fit in compared to those deals?

SI

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Logan

Updates on Yankee deals:

The $160MM Sabathia deal reportedly includes an opt-out clause after 2011. He will have been paid $69MM for those 3 years by then.

They are reportedly also close to signing Derek Lowe to a 4 year, $66MM deal.

I'm not sure which is worse.

Derek Lowe + Yankee Infield = Death by 1000 Ground Balls

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Sounds like Furcal is down to LA and KC. Moore has already said that Aviles would move to 2B if the Royals were able to sign Furcal.

I'll believe it when I see it- if he goes after him, we have a decent shot but I'm not sure money is available. Not only that but no one is taking on Guillen in this market. Also, I think the market for Furcal is about 6 teams deep. That said, I'd love to see him in the Royals lineup. Still, defensive stats, admittedly in their infancy, are showing that Aviles was halfways decent at SS so it's not the gaping hole people thought.

SI

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Like I posted already. I can't believe the deals that can be had this year when you're comparing this year to the last 2 years. You can get a great bargain, players at 2/3rds the cost they were over the past couple of years. I'll have a post about this in a little bit.

Were I the GM of a mid-market team, I would definitely push to sign as many people as possible this offseason. Of course, your owner might not comply, but you could really do well for yourself with some of the numbers that have been floated over the last couple of days.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

BJ Ryan 5/$47
Joe Nathan 4/$47
Francisco Cordero 4/$46
Mariano Rivera 3/$45
Billy Wagner (older) 4/$42
Brad Lidge 3/$37.5

Like I posted already. I can't believe the deals that can be had this year when you're comparing this year to the last 2 years. You can get a great bargain, players at 2/3rds the cost they were over the past couple of years. I'll have a post about this in a little bit.

Where does KRod fit in compared to those deals?

SI

Nathan and Rivera--worth it. They shut their opponents down. When they come in, you get that "game over" feeling. I don't really get that with the other relievers, and I know firsthand you don't get that with K-Rod.

All that said, yeah, this year's depressed market certainly helped the Mets get a good deal next to past year's dealings for closers.

[DaddyTorgo]

man...CC is gonna get HUGE in NYC. Not only all the $$, but all the good food he's gonna be eating...sheeyit.

oh, and i really hope lowe doesn't go to the yankees. would be sad to see that from the perspective of a sox fan, a member of that team signing with the Yankees (and no, Damon doesn't count. he was a rent-a-player, unlike Lowe, who had been with the Sox for years+years)

[sterlingice]

Here are all the "big" contracts from the last 2 years, vaguely by position (P, IF, OF).

Lilly 4/40
Meche 5/55
Pavano 4/40
Suppan 4/42
Silva 4/48
Kuroda 3/35
Matsuzaka 6/52 (+51M posting, 6/103 really)
Batista 3/25
Eaton 3/24
Marquis 3/21
Schmidt 3/46
Zito 7/126
Burnett? Lowe? Sheets? Perez?
Closers? Fuentes? Wood?

Posada 4/52
Lugo 4/36
Huff 3/20
Garciaparra 2/18.5
Durham 2/14
Teixiera? Fucal? Hudson? Cabrera?

Guillen 3/36
A Jones 2/36
Fukodome 4/48
Rowand 5/60
Hunter 5/90
Pierre 5/44
Matthews 5/50
Soriano 8/136
Lee 6/100
Edmonds 2/19
Manny? Dunn? Burrell? Ibanez? Bradley? Abreu?

Just out of curiousity, I'm pretty sure the deals from this year are going to end up in the much lower side of the spectrum compared to their talent level.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Were I the GM of a mid-market team, I would definitely push to sign as many people as possible this offseason. Of course, your owner might not comply, but you could really do well for yourself with some of the numbers that have been floated over the last couple of days.

Hell, I'd love Dunn at 3/36 or Sheets and Burrell at the couple of numbers I've seen around. Heck, I wouldn't even mind guaranteeing that extra year if it's at a depressed level. The one caveat to all this is that it looks like CC and Tex will get theirs but everyone else is a level cheaper than in year's past.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Nathan and Rivera--worth it. They shut their opponents down. When they come in, you get that "game over" feeling

And don't get me wrong- I know exactly what you mean. We have a "game over" closer- it's just that he doesn't get the attention the larger ones get. Oh, and we just locked him up for 3 years with 3 more years of club options

SI

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, I like Soriano. He's a good one. He needs to pitch longer to get the rep you're giving him, but he's well on his way.

I am actually reasonably certain the Angels' pen will blow less saves next year than the Mets. Shields and Arredondo will get first shot, and both seem steadier. Then we have a fireballer in Kevin Jepsen who is being groomed, and will probably be in one of the key setup roles. And we have Kelvim Escobar as likely headed for the pen for the rest of 2009 when he heals up from his surgery.

So I'm not too worried about losing K-Rod. I think we could be better than last year.