Official 2009-2010 MLB Offseason Thread

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I would hope he plays CF when he plays and Jacoby goes to left.

[Dr. Sak]

Via Twitter...

OT: Buster_ESPN

Halladay's negotiations with the Phillies are complete; deal in place. He's taking a physical examination right now. 17 minutes ago from web

[molson]

I've always like Mike Cameron.

Unless the Red Sox make a move for a bat though, this will being the biggest pitching over hitting Sox team of my lifetime. Should be interesting.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by lungs

Eh, I don't hate the Red Sox. I won't root for them, but I wont' root against them. I will root for Cam though!

I think Miller Park comes out as a neutral stadium so the increase might not be as big as you'd think but if I remember correctly, quite a few of Cameron's home runs were the variety that he hits a mile in the air that barely get out of the park or get out by a decent distance. I think his hitting style will play well with the Green Monster. Definitely has an uppercut swing and he'll strike out plenty.

I think playing him in Fenway's tiny left field does his defense a disservice. He operates best when he has plenty of room to cover.

i think the odds are that he'll get some time in left but also some time in center...both him and ellsbury seem like they are more flexible OFers

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

I've always like Mike Cameron.

Unless the Red Sox make a move for a bat though, this will being the biggest pitching over hitting Sox team of my lifetime. Should be interesting.

very true! well i mean the philosophy lately has been "exploit what is undervalued" and clearly they feel that pitching+defense is undervalued right now...

[path12]

God, I love having a good GM. Both Aumont and Gillies were blocked in the M's system. So depending on who the third prospect ends up being, worst case scenario gives us Lee to pair up with Felix for a year and then two 1st rounders when he signs elsewhere (you've gotta think he's a Type A).

Essentially, the M's give up one prospect for a year of Cliff Lee. Nice.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Yeah Sak, that's the latest I've heard as well.

I'm not as ecstatic as I was yesterday about it, but I feel good about the trade overall. The key thing is Halladay at below market cost for three years > one year of Lee and uncertainty during the remaining time we can keep our core together. Propsects are likely a wash, although I really, really liked Drabek.

As a Phillies fan, I think what we forget is how cool it is for the fact that the Phillies are basically a news item. For years, this was a team that was an afterthought.

Losing Lee hurts, but if Amaro decides that the chances are better with Halladay, so be it.

Losing Drabek could hurt, but it's not like we're not getting prospects to put back into the farm system.

The team gets older but it's primed for at least one more charge into the breach, and I believe the risks are great but so is the reward. Furthermore, the team has drafted quite well as of recent, so I got the faith.

I read the philliesphan forum and "Ye gods" do they whine over the gutting of the farm system, but they are guys that overvalue every Phillies prospect.

[RedKingGold]

Exactly. Most talent evaluators had Drabek as a #2 or a #3, he's not projected to be the future ace of the team. That's Cole Hamels still with Happ as our #3 guy. Also, we're getting two solid pitching prospects in return for one blue chipper. Not horrible.

As far as Taylor goes, the biggest criticism in moving him is that he is major league level ready now. That's fine, but the Phillies are locked into Ibanez/Victorino/Werth for at least the next two years, and by then Brown will be ready to step in there. Meanwhile, the other prospect we're getting from the Mariners fills in quite nicely as a "Taylor of the future".

Lastly, adding Halladay and signing him gives us cost certainty for next year's free agency. It makes it more and more likely that we'll try to extend Werth and Rollins over the next season or so where we might not have had the payroll if we extended Lee.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Exactly. Most talent evaluators had Drabek as a #2 or a #3, he's not projected to be the future ace of the team. That's Cole Hamels still with Happ as our #3 guy. Also, we're getting two solid pitching prospects in return for one blue chipper. Not horrible.

As far as Taylor goes, the biggest criticism in moving him is that he is major league level ready now. That's fine, but the Phillies are locked into Ibanez/Victorino/Werth for at least the next two years, and by then Brown will be ready to step in there. Meanwhile, the other prospect we're getting from the Mariners fills in quite nicely as a "Taylor of the future".

Lastly, adding Halladay and signing him gives us cost certainty for next year's free agency. It makes it more and more likely that we'll try to extend Werth and Rollins over the next season or so where we might not have had the payroll if we extended Lee.

it sounds as of now we're also getting a 3b prospect as well.

[DeToxRox]

The Jays already have a deal in place to trade Taylor to the A's for 3B Brett Wallace.

[Mustang]

All I know is that from a fantasy baseball aspect, in my NL only keeper league I'm getting ass raped this offseason (lost Scherzer, Drabek, Taylor and probably A. Gonzalez when he moves to the Red Sox)

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Mustang

All I know is that from a fantasy baseball aspect, in my NL only keeper league I'm getting ass raped this offseason (lost Scherzer, Drabek, Taylor and probably A. Gonzalez when he moves to the Red Sox)

don't you have some sort of mechanism whereby you get compensation for traded players in the form of first-choice of players traded IN (drafted by say the overall rank of the player you lost - so if you lost the top-ranked guy you get the first pick)?

if not you ought to. that would at least likely net you Halladay for A. Gonzalez (IF he moves).

[JPhillips]

According to WFAN, the Mets are now officially eliminated from the 2010 playoffs.

[Young Drachma]

As much as this trade sucks, it's probably a much better deal than JP would've gotten this summer and if they didn't do it now, it's unlikely they'd have made a better move at any other point.

If nothing else, it's better than the previous deals we've lost aces with (Yes, that's you Roger...) and the Blue Jays blogs are telling me it'll be okay in just a year. I don't know if I buy it, but...we'll go with it.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by molson

I've always like Mike Cameron.

Unless the Red Sox make a move for a bat though, this will being the biggest pitching over hitting Sox team of my lifetime. Should be interesting.

Yeah maybe they are going to implement Billy Ball in Boston or something.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

don't you have some sort of mechanism whereby you get compensation for traded players in the form of first-choice of players traded IN

Unfortunately no. It is a auction league so any guy you lose is just a guy lost.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Mustang

Unfortunately no. It is a auction league so any guy you lose is just a guy lost.

that's ridiculous.

[ISiddiqui]

Here is Fangraph's take on the Philly-Toronto-Seattle deal:

The Real Big Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Let's just say, they didn't like the Lee to Seattle part of the trade for Philly.

[DaddyTorgo]

John Lackey Inks with Boston | FanGraphs Baseball

They're not very bullish on Lackey either.

On the flipside they think the Cameron deal was a steal.

Cameron of Boston | FanGraphs Baseball
Bay Vs Cameron | FanGraphs Baseball

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

I pretty much agree with everything you just said. I'm not trying to discount the Angels as much as I'm impressed with the direction the Mariners are going in.

I have been so darn impressed with Jack Z so far in his time in Seattle.

SI

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Here is Fangraph's take on the Philly-Toronto-Seattle deal:

The Real Big Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

Let's just say, they didn't like the Lee to Seattle part of the trade for Philly.

What is conveniently forgotten in that analysis is that Seattle is getting a one-year rental for Lee.

Really, the deal should be looked at as two seperate trades: (1) what the Phillies gave up to get Halladay for three years; and (2) what the Mariners gave up to get Lee for one year.

I'm not sure the market for Lee at one year is as strong as people are claiming. Heck, look at what the Phillies gave up to get Lee last year. It's not like we sacrificed big prospects to get Cliff for one and a half years. Is it really fair to expect a team to trade us more for only one full season?

I get the feeling that what motivated this deal now was that the Phillies were negotiate an extension as a condition to the trade, whereas Toronto would not allow this before the 2008 trade deadline.

If Riccardi had, then the Phillies would've done this same deal in July and possibly even given up a bit more. I think the last standing offer to the Jays was Drabek, Taylor, and Lou Marson. I bet the Phillies would've given up more if Riccardi hadn't been a dolt and allow the Phillies to renegotiate Halladay.

[ISiddiqui]

What exactly do you mean that Lee only being under contract for one year is "conveniently" forgotten? Did you read the article?

especially this part:

The Cliff Lee to Seattle portion of this trade just seems very light in return for the Phillies. They’re getting two power arms with a lot of questions marks and a speedy center fielder without a lot of power. None of these guys are top tier prospects. This is the best Philadelphia could have gotten for Lee? Really? A pu-pu platter of interesting, high-risk guys not really close to the majors for a Cy Young-quality pitcher who is already well on his way to Type A free agency?

And, even if that’s true, why clear $8 million from the books by trading Lee? Surely, you could have moved Joe Blanton without eating any of his salary, even if you didn’t love the deals being offered. Or, how about this – don’t sign J.C. Romero, Brian Schneider, and Ross Gload, whose 2010 salaries are about equal to Lee’s. Replace those three reserves with league minimum guys and you’ve saved enough money to keep Lee around.

[RedKingGold]

Oh, wait. Isn't this the same guy who thought that Ibanez was a bad signing last year and that the Devil Rays were getting a bargain with Pat Burrell?

[RedKingGold]

Oh, and as far as the three players highlighted above, J.C. Romero was signed before the 2009 off-season, and his salary is $4.25 million for 2010. Only Schneider and Gload were signed this season. Romero is basically radioactive due to injury and that whole steroid thing.

Of course, he conveniently misses that as well.

[RedKingGold]

Lastly, I get the feeling that Blanton is/was also extremely difficult to move as well due to the 7 million he's likely to make in arbitration.

Phillies probably reason that Blanton's 12 or so wins at 4.50 ERA with the prospects from the Lee deal > Lee's 18 or 19 wins at 3.00 ERA with prospects from Blanton deal.

[ISiddiqui]

You are thinking of Eric Seidman, while Dave Cameron wrote this article... but let us not get those facts in the way.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

You are thinking of Eric Seidman, while Dave Cameron wrote this article... but let us not get those facts in the way.

Same website, yes?

[ISiddiqui]

And? So everyone who writes on ESPN.com is exactly the same as anyone else who writes for ESPN.com?

Or is this just another "HOW DARE SOMEONE SAY MY TEAM MADE A BAD DEAL" post, and damn the facts?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Same website, yes?

you're on the same website with Flasch and MBBF - would you like to be grouped in with either of them based on that?

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

And? So everyone who writes on ESPN.com is exactly the same as anyone else who writes for ESPN.com?

Thinking in terms of baseball, Peter Gammons was the only writer/contributor to ESPN who stuck out as having seperate credibility from ESPN. All of the other Jayson Starks, Buster Olneys, and Keith Laws of the world all suck from the ESPN teet, so they are indistinguishable in my mind (as are Heyman and Verducci for SI).

Or is this just another "HOW DARE SOMEONE SAY MY TEAM MADE A BAD DEAL" post, and damn the facts?

Nah, if it's a bad deal, I'll say it's a bad deal. If the Phillies had not been able to sign Halladay to an extension, but kept Lee and Halladay for only 2010, I'd be on here saying its a bad deal. I'm not one of those who think that selling out for 2010 and 2010 alone is the way for the Phillies to go.

In the end, we're arguing about prospects man. Prospects, not the real major leaguers. But prospects? Prospects. I can't believe we're talking about prospects.

I guess my cynicism towards that blogger is that it's simply way too early to debate the merits of any deal when the major criticism is the value of prospects any team got back.

Oh, and as for "facts". What you are promoting is not "facts" but ways to state the truth to bolster your own opinion. I can do that as well.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

you're on the same website with Flasch and MBBF - would you like to be grouped in with either of them based on that?

Shudder. Good point. Good thing I don't pimp FOFC to my real world life.

[JS19]

What I can't figure out is why the Phils just didn't ride it out with Halladay and Lee. Sign Halladay to his extension, let Lee walk after the yr and get the comp picks. If I were a Phillies fan I would probably be a bit upset with management not going for it. I know they need to look towards the future, but in professional sports, you gotta strike while the iron's hot. Even when Lee walks, you still get the comp pick, so it would be almost a wash, anyhow.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

You are thinking of Eric Seidman, while Dave Cameron wrote this article... but let us not get those facts in the way.

It would be fair to note here that Cameron also is half of the USS Mariner blog, so he may not be totally impartial in this particular matter......though generally he's pretty consistent with what he values in players.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by lungs

Lots of fans will probably complain that he strikes out too much but when you look at his numbers and add in his defense he will be a very productive player.

Oh sweet, a black JD Drew. That'll go over fantastically with Red Sox Nation.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Oh sweet, a black JD Drew. That'll go over fantastically with Red Sox Nation.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

People already irrationally hate JD Drew even though he's been one of our best offensive players and our best/2nd best defender in recent years, mainly because of the perception he strikes out too much/keeps the bat on his shoulder. Add in the (alleged) racism that is there in certain sections of (the/any) fanbase and it's going to be a loooooong year if Cameron comes out of the gate replacing Jason Bay hitting anything less than .300 with a few strikeouts in big situations.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

People already irrationally hate JD Drew even though he's been one of our best offensive players and our best/2nd best defender in recent years, mainly because of the perception he strikes out too much/keeps the bat on his shoulder. Add in the (alleged) racism that is there in certain sections of (the/any) fanbase and it's going to be a loooooong year if Cameron comes out of the gate replacing Jason Bay hitting anything less than .300 with a few strikeouts in big situations.

guess i just don't see the racism as much.

and i don't think cameron will do that at all - the front office should do a good job getting out in front of it and setting the expectation for the fans

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

guess i just don't see the racism as much.

and i don't think cameron will do that at all - the front office should do a good job getting out in front of it and setting the expectation for the fans

In the Boston area you don't? Really????

[DeToxRox]

If Mike Cameron doesn't start the year 1 for 3 he won't ever get to .300 on the year.

Still a good signing though for the Sox.

[lungs]

Oh goodness, definitely be prepared for Cameron to leave his bat on his shoulder and to not come through in some key situations. He can be frustrating at times but when you look at his overall body of work, there's no denying he's a quality player.

Unfortunately, fans will look at his batting average (he'll never be a .300 hitter, more .250-260) and he'll strike out quite a bit and think that he stinks.

I still remember Brewer fans bitching that we kept Mike Cameron around and that he blocked Tony Gwynn Jr......

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Galaril

In the Boston area you don't? Really????

Like I've said before, it really depends on the circles you run in. Amongst the younger and more educated crowds it's a non-issue, and from what I know of DT - 20's, went to BC, lives in Wellesley, works at a (white-collar) start-up, types coherent posts that accurately convey a point - he almost certainly does run in those crowds (as do I.) If you want to start talking about the idiots that call into WEEI (and I avoid them as much as possible) or the older fans, then yes it is there. (If - and that's a big if - I'm remembering them correctly) I still don't entirely get your/your wife's personal experiences with racism - I've never seen it against Asians, at least ones that speak English - but I don't doubt there are some people out there.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Like I've said before, it really depends on the circles you run in. Amongst the younger and more educated crowds it's a non-issue, and from what I know of DT - 20's, went to BC, lives in Wellesley, works at a (white-collar) start-up, types coherent posts that accurately convey a point - he almost certainly does run in those crowds (as do I.) If you want to start talking about the idiots that call into WEEI (and I avoid them as much as possible) or the older fans, then yes it is there. (If - and that's a big if - I'm remembering them correctly) I still don't entirely get your/your wife's personal experiences with racism - I've never seen it against Asians, at least ones that speak English - but I don't doubt there are some people out there.

Awww thanks Bishop!!

I'm actually 30 now though.

You're right though - I definitely run in those crowds, but I suppose amongst the "idiot fringe" it's definitely there (as like you said I suspect it is in most cities). I guess I just like to think that the idiot fringe is slowly aging and dieing off.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Awww thanks Bishop!!

I'm actually 30 now though.

You're right though - I definitely run in those crowds, but I suppose amongst the "idiot fringe" it's definitely there (as like you said I suspect it is in most cities). I guess I just like to think that the idiot fringe is slowly aging and dieing off.

If I can still pass for 21, you can go 20's. On the last part, I can only hope so, but we're pulling this thread off track. The main point of my snarky remark was less the race and more the similar playing style to JD Drew.

In addition to going after defense and pitching, the Red Sox are clearly targeting players with a high # of pitches per at bat - so the comparison to the A's is fairly apt. (EDIT to add numbers {last years rank in AL, name, pitches per at bat)

1st - Youk (4.42)
2nd - Nick Johnson (4.38)
6th - Hermida (4.21)
9th - Ortiz (4.19)
11th - Drew (4.13)
15th - Scutaro (4.07)
20th - Vmart (4.05)
32nd - Pedroia (3.96)
32nd - Cameron (3.96)
54th - Ellsbury (3.77)

Also reportedly the 8-year Cardinals offer leaked (by Boras?) is wrong and the Cards are sticking to 5 years because they don't think they're competing with anyone right now.

For fun a list of (mostly) potentially available* "power hitters" in the next 2 years by road OPS (*not intended to be a referendum on every players availabilty - some players are thrown in for comparison purposes)

Name	OPS
Albert Pujols	1.051
Adrian Gonzalez	0.935
Prince Fielder	0.924
Joey Votto	0.908
Miguel Cabrera	0.908
Joe Mauer	0.901
Hanley Ramirez	0.898
Jason Bay	0.898
Todd Helton	0.885
Adam Dunn	0.885
Justin Morneau	0.865
Brad Hawpe	0.864
Derrek Lee	0.861
Hideki Matsui	0.856
Shin-Soo Choo	0.855
Magglio Ordonez	0.853
Victor Martinez	0.847
Jayson Werth	0.830
Carlos Pena	0.828
Grady Sizemore	0.820
Milton Bradley	0.817
Matt Holliday	0.808

[stevew]

I dunno if he's started to degrade yet. Anyways, just based on the limited amount of baseball I watch, if Cameron couldn't get to a ball, pretty much nobody can.

So I dunno why you'd put him in anywhere but center.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by stevew

So I dunno why you'd put him in anywhere but center.

If you want to see your star centerfielder's skull slammed into?

[miked]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Awww thanks Bishop!!

I'm actually 30 now though.

You're right though - I definitely run in those crowds, but I suppose amongst the "idiot fringe" it's definitely there (as like you said I suspect it is in most cities). I guess I just like to think that the idiot fringe is slowly aging and dieing off.

The idiot fringe is still there and thriving. I lived in the North End, where a non-white person was about as rare as a Sox World Series win. Most of the idiot fringe has moved out to Revere, Sommerville, and the likes, but it is still very present. My wife mentioned when we live there that everyone seems to joke about how racist the south is compared to Boston, but it is mainly because Boston is still highly segregated.

Anyway, while there is plenty of racism and the Sox have been historically mostly white, nobody cares about color so long as you're hitting.

[Mr. Sparkle]

So yeah, the Mariners and GM Jack Zduriencik continue to shock, amaze, and awe. Milton Bradley for Carlos freakin' Silva. I know Bradley had almost no trade value, but man. Carlos Silva is TERRIBLE. Suck for the Cubs and their fans, especially when it looks like they're going to spend what little money they saved on Marlon Byrd.

I am really happy for Seattle fans, though. If there's a sports town that could use something to cheer for and a team to have hope in, it's Seattle. And the scary thing is, I don't think they're done yet.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Also, I really, really wish the Giants had signed Nick Johnson. Apparently they offered more money than the Yankees, but weren't willing to go to 2 years. I'd have given him the extra year, but I completely understand why they didn't. I also understand why Johnson would take a little less to sign with New York. He has a chance to put up some serious numbers in that lineup and that ballpark, which would probably earn him a nice contract next year. Assuming he stays healthy, of course. Nick Johnson could suffer a career ending injury while he's in the act of putting his signature on the contract, so that's a ginormous if.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sparkle

I am really happy for Seattle fans, though. If there's a sports town that could use something to cheer for and a team to have hope in, it's Seattle. And the scary thing is, I don't think they're done yet.

I think many of us M's fans are still kind of in shock - after 4 years of damn near the worst GM in the game, we now have a guy who's making his case for being one of the best.

Bradley has a lot of risk, but he's got vastly higher upside than does Silva, and he fills a hole whereas Silva was dead weight.

[DeToxRox]

Apparently the Yanks are close to a deal for a SP that isn't a salary dump guy.

[DeToxRox]

Also, M and Jay's stay busy as the M's trade Morrow to Toronto for League and a prospect.

Seems like a very odd move for Seattle.