Werewolf XXIII - Lost - Game Over! Survivors win! - Page 11

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Looks like we were headed down similar paths - voting records.

As I had indicated earlier, I have a small measure of trust right now in you and Raiders. So that leaves Pennywise on your list that voted for King. And he was very low profile on Day 1. Even before looking at the King votes I had him on the "less trusted" end of the scale out of the 18 guys I'm evaluating (I'm taking myself out of that list as well as the dead).

Question is do you want to assume king is innocent...if so then the wolves may have been all to happy to let us do both sides of the lynch alone. Most of the day(about 90%) it looked very certain wednesday would die...king was an option briefly, and then back to just w...Now i say you look at who started that bandwagon(quiet, while a reason, is a nice excuse to kill a vet)...so in my mind i have three parties to look at(if king is innocent..if hes a wolf its you and mckerney)...

Party One:
Alan(first vote on w), bearcat, spleen, desmond(all in order of votes)...thats a fairly nice looking group for a wolf

Party Two:
Raiders, Penny (look like they defend a villager, and if king is a wolf they look even safer later)

Party Three:
Schmidty, Swaggs, Kwhit(all very quiet day ones...id be willing to bet a lot of money one is bad)

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The Pennywise vote came a little over two hours before the deadline and created a tie between Mr. W and King (using Post #403 by Alan T as a reference).

That is when I moved my vote from King to Mr. W - I didn't like that the vote had swung from 4-1 to 5-5 in the space of 50 posts.

Had I been around for the deadline I don't think I would have left my vote on Mr. W when two more people came in behind me. I wanted to create a run-off that would force the "others" to save their guy, but I now think we had a two survivor race. I guess I like thinking that better than the alternative, which is that I strongly aided and abetted an other in avoiding a Day 1 lynch before they had to commit themselves to saving him.

You said before you didnt notice the penny vote..i might have misunderstood you, but im quite certain you said you didnt think about it when you voted....hoops, stop making me consider you

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 09:23 AM

dola, above comment has half tongue in cheek...

saldana · 02-12-2006, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

How can the assassin and others get one kill last night? I don't understand your post. If the assassin and others got one kill each last night, there would be three people dead. That's why I don't think there's an assassin.

There is the possibility a player is a "Locke" like character and can do a one-time kill, since we're talking about that.

it could have happened exactly like this in the harry potter game....the wizards assassin could have used his PK during the same night cycle as the death eaters made a murder....hence 2 dead people, one killed by by the good guys assassin, one killed by the bad guys murder....In fact, it did happen last game when Path12 got murdered, and Packerfanatic got PK'd

saldana · 02-12-2006, 09:29 AM

dola, this was when we still worked from the assumption that the jail was only a jail and not a spot where we someone went until their lynch death actually took place.

saldana · 02-12-2006, 09:32 AM

double dola, i am in pretty much the same boat as blade and hoops with very little as far as an idea of what to do during our next day. I had absolutely nothing on day one, so i just went with my vengance vote for alan, and never saw a reason to change it....now i have to come up with something different for day 2, hope we had a witness or the seer got a hit to give us some help.

Celeval · 02-12-2006, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

dola, this was when we still worked from the assumption that the jail was only a jail and not a spot where we someone went until their lynch death actually took place.

Doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't - I don't know if "anyone" could have done it, or if it would have taken a special; but I bet it was possible to let Wednesday out as a night action. Otherwise, why the giving away of identity between jail and night?

pennywisesb · 02-12-2006, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So that leaves Pennywise on your list that voted for King. And he was very low profile on Day 1. Even before looking at the King votes I had him on the "less trusted" end of the scale out of the 18 guys I'm evaluating (I'm taking myself out of that list as well as the dead).

Not exactly sure how this implicates me in any way. I stated that it had turned into a two horse race and I wasn't comfortable voting for Mr. W because he has proven valuable in WW games past. I felt that it would have been a shame to the survivors to lose him on day one, if in fact, he was a survivor--which it seems he turned out to be.

Alan T · 02-12-2006, 11:35 AM

I am assuming there are some people who haven't hopped in yet because of weekend committments. There might be someone who saw something last night that can help give us direction, but my guess is if we have a seer type person, they would be foolish to just come out and say even if they caught a bad guy. They likely will try to see who else they can snag. So unless someone with a one time ability got something last night, I am assuming we won't have much to go on for today.

I looked back over the voting list to try to find a lead, an didnt see much...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Updated list, sorry for the ommission:

(67) Blade Votes Mckerney (1)
(115) hoops votes Taz (lol)
(121) hoops UNVOTES taz (lol)
(121) hoops Votes Tanglewood (1)
(138) Alan Votes Mr. Wednesday (1)
(147) Sndvls Votes Grammaticus (1)
(151) saldana votes Alan (1)
(162) Blade UNVOTES Mckerney (0)
(162) Blade votes Raiders Army (1)
(168) Grammaticus votes desmond (1)
(181) Bearcat votes Mr. Wednesday (2)
(182) Spleen votes Mr. Wednesday (3)
(190) Kwhit Votes Rpi (1)
(208) Schmidty votes blade (1)
(210) Swaggs votes Blade (2)
(213) King votes Raiders army (2)
(217) Raiders Army votes king (1)
(222) Desmond votes Mr. Wednesday (4)
(226) Mr. Wednesday votes Rpi (2)
(232) Celeval votes Alan T (2)
(235) Blade UNVOTES Raiders Army (1)
(235) Blade votes King (2)
(241) Hoops UNVOTES Tanglewood (0)
(241) Hoops votes King (3)
(242) Mr. Wednesday UNVOTES rpi (1)
(242) Mr. Wednesday Votes king (4)
(268) king UNVOTES Raiders Army (0)
(268) king votes Mr. Wednesday (5)
(276) pennyweis votes king (5)
(281) Hoops UNVOTES King (4)
(281) Hoops Votes Mr. Wednesday (6)
(288) mckerney votes Mr. wednesday (7)
(308) Desnudo votes Mr. Wednesday (8)

I see votes 181 & 182, back to back Bearcat and spleen suddenly put Mr. W in danger. (50 posts and several votes after the original Mr. W vote)

20 posts later, 208 & 210 suddenly Schmidty and swaggs almost back to back put Blade in jeopardy of becoming a 2 person race.

Right after that at 213 King jumps on the Raiders bandwagon with Blade, to tie the vote up with Blade. Around this point is when Blade comes out with the accusation that he was trying to trap someone and points a finger at King instead.

217, 235, 241 and 242 we see fall out from Blade's accusation of King, and the race goes from being Mr. W vs Blade vs Raiders vs Alan T to being Mr.W vs king tied up 4 - 4

268 king moves his vote to Mr. w for self preservation

276 pennyweis re-ties it up at 5 each with a vote on king.

281 Hoops unties it by moving his vote back off of king to Mr.W giving him a 2 vote lead

288 mckerney basically puts it out of reach without last minute vote switching by jumping on and clinching the deal at 7-4 at that point.

So if this was villager vs villager , then we probably don't learn alot from any of that. The wolves would have the luxury of knowing it was villager vs villager, not panic and just throw votes wherever they felt.

Anyhows, this is as best i can see the hilights of Day 1's voting. I purposely did not include people's reasons for their votes, but did include their vote numbers if you wish to go back to look.

Desnudo · 02-12-2006, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I got zero response on this yesterday (Post #434):

Quote:

OK, time to think like a "wolf" - what do you do if you see an early bandwagon forming on a survivor?
1.) You are excited to be getting a free pass on Day 1.
2.) You make sure that the wolves spread out their votes - if possible, on completely different people but if it is a two-horse race then don't draw attention
3.) For those not voting for the lynchee, put something out there that can be re-read later as supporting his cause.

Is this how people would expect a wolf to play? #1 - duh. #2 - where do you think the "others" put their votes. #3 - am I overthinking here, or does this make a lot of sense?

1. duh
2. Probably spread out, especially if King is a villager. See #1. Even if he's not, there was no risk of leaving a vote on him.
3. If King is an Other, I would not be surpised to see at least one vote on him from the first day being from another Other.

hoopsguy · 02-12-2006, 01:55 PM

Blade, in regards to #502, I had asked you about Pennywise earlier, not said that I didn't notice it.

You commented that the votes for King didn't feel like a bandwagon from you, me, Raiders, and Mr. W. But when you made that comment you didn't mention Pennywise, who was the 5th vote there and I had asked you about him. I mentioned this in Post #405.

Quote:

Blade, when you were looking at the votes for King you did not comment on Pennywise joining the grouping.

I think you mis-read this post, based on your comments in #502. I did say that I was dense on MrW indicating he was a special, but did not have anything about missing Penny's vote.

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, in regards to #502, I had asked you about Pennywise earlier, not said that I didn't notice it.

You commented that the votes for King didn't feel like a bandwagon from you, me, Raiders, and Mr. W. But when you made that comment you didn't mention Pennywise, who was the 5th vote there and I had asked you about him. I mentioned this in Post #405.

I think you mis-read this post, based on your comments in #502. I did say that I was dense on MrW indicating he was a special, but did not have anything about missing Penny's vote.

I did misread that...i took it to mean you didnt notice penny vote....i stand corrected buddy

kingfc22 · 02-12-2006, 02:18 PM

Right now my biggest suspect is penny. He is the one that tied me back up with Mr. W late in day. I know it's not much to go on, but from what I sense everyone else has little or no clue on what is going on either. Hopefully, we can gain some solid info from day 2 and night 2.

Alan T · 02-12-2006, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I see votes 181 & 182, back to back Bearcat and spleen suddenly put Mr. W in danger. (50 posts and several votes after the original Mr. W vote)

20 posts later, 208 & 210 suddenly Schmidty and swaggs almost back to back put Blade in jeopardy of becoming a 2 person race.

Right after that at 213 King jumps on the Raiders bandwagon with Blade, to tie the vote up with Blade. Around this point is when Blade comes out with the accusation that he was trying to trap someone and points a finger at King instead.

217, 235, 241 and 242 we see fall out from Blade's accusation of King, and the race goes from being Mr. W vs Blade vs Raiders vs Alan T to being Mr.W vs king tied up 4 - 4

268 king moves his vote to Mr. w for self preservation

276 pennyweis re-ties it up at 5 each with a vote on king.

281 Hoops unties it by moving his vote back off of king to Mr.W giving him a 2 vote lead

288 mckerney basically puts it out of reach without last minute vote switching by jumping on and clinching the deal at 7-4 at that point.

Since Im just bored here watching 14-15 inches of snow fall, I figured I would try to do my own groupings of people with similar acitions. Not really a trust or distrust list as much as figuring out where people fall to narrow it down more in my head..

Group 1:
Bearcat and Spleen (others voted for mr. W, but these did seemingly together)

Group 2:
Raiders Army, Blade, penneyweis (king voters, following Blade's reasoning).

Group 3:
Hoops, mckerney, Desnudo (late Mr. W voters. Started by the hoops flipflop and then mckerney sinched the deal.)

Group 4:
Schmidty + Swaggs (the anti-blade faction?)

Group 5: Sndvls, Saldana, kwhit, Celeval (voted off the beaten path so to speak. Stayed away from day 1 bandwagons.)

SnDvls · 02-12-2006, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Right now my biggest suspect is penny. He is the one that tied me back up with Mr. W late in day. I know it's not much to go on, but from what I sense everyone else has little or no clue on what is going on either. Hopefully, we can gain some solid info from day 2 and night 2.

this is where I was leaning too. I think also one of the others threw a vote away on someone else not in the 2 person lynch race, yes I realize that also means me. I'll wait to hear what he has to say tomorrow, but as of right now he's going to get my vote.

SnDvls · 02-12-2006, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Since Im just bored here watching 14-15 inches of snow fall, I figured I would try to do my own groupings of people with similar acitions. Not really a trust or distrust list as much as figuring out where people fall to narrow it down more in my head..

don't forget the non-voters we dont' want them to get lost in the shuffle

kingfc22 · 02-12-2006, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls

don't forget the non-voters we dont' want them to get lost in the shuffle

Thanks for brining that up. I'm always wary of non-voters.

Alan T · 02-12-2006, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls

don't forget the non-voters we dont' want them to get lost in the shuffle

For non voters we had Tanglewood and RPI, anyone else that I missed?

RPI very well may be an other, but from him having to drop from the game, I am guessing he had other reasons to not vote, so I would at least give him a little slack until we have a replacement. I do not remember if I have seen Tanglewood say much anything.

saldana · 02-12-2006, 02:45 PM

didnt tangle miss because of the time difference?

Schmidty · 02-12-2006, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Since Im just bored here watching 14-15 inches of snow fall, I figured I would try to do my own groupings of people with similar acitions. Not really a trust or distrust list as much as figuring out where people fall to narrow it down more in my head..

Group 1:
Bearcat and Spleen (others voted for mr. W, but these did seemingly together)

Group 2:
Raiders Army, Blade, penneyweis (king voters, following Blade's reasoning).

Group 3:
Hoops, mckerney, Desnudo (late Mr. W voters. Started by the hoops flipflop and then mckerney sinched the deal.)

Group 4:
Schmidty + Swaggs (the anti-blade faction?)

Group 5: Sndvls, Saldana, kwhit, Celeval (voted off the beaten path so to speak. Stayed away from day 1 bandwagons.)

I'm not an anti-blade faction at all. I explained my reasoning. There wasn't anything to go on the first day. There's not much more to go on today either, but I will be choosing more carefully this vote.

Alan T · 02-12-2006, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

didnt tangle miss because of the time difference?

Oh you are right, I remember that. He thought it was one hour later. I guess waiting till last minute

hoopsguy · 02-12-2006, 03:12 PM

Pennywise - Post #508

Quote:

Not exactly sure how this implicates me in any way

Voting for King doesn't implicate you in any way, anymore than any other first day vote.

But ...
1.) Do you think that all of the "others" had their votes on Mr.W?
2.) If there was a two-horse race developing (even if it involved one of their own) do you think that one of the votes on King would have been from an other?

The list of people with votes on King included Mr W (not an other), Blade, Raiders Army, and you.

I'm all for hearing why we should look harder at either one of them than you, although I'm not asking in any way for a role reveal.

And as of right now it doesn't sound like I'm the only person who was thinking in this direction. But no one has translated this into a vote so far.

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 03:35 PM

VOTE PENNYWISESB

Does that help hoops?

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Oh you are right, I remember that. He thought it was one hour later. I guess waiting till last minute

he says he forgot...it might not be true

saldana · 02-12-2006, 03:39 PM

I Dont have a problem with the pennywise concept, he has always been excellent at hiding in the shadows, but i am gonna hold off on my vote until tomorrow, still hoping for some insight from one of our special role players. (note: not asking for a role reveal, i like subtle hints)

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

I Dont have a problem with the pennywise concept, he has always been excellent at hiding in the shadows, but i am gonna hold off on my vote until tomorrow, still hoping for some insight from one of our special role players. (note: not asking for a role reveal, i like subtle hints)

I dont even want hints today...too early to be giving the wolves crumbs to follow in my mind...im betting the only way were going to get any insight is to get some votes out there

saldana · 02-12-2006, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I dont even want hints today...too early to be giving the wolves crumbs to follow in my mind...im betting the only way were going to get any insight is to get some votes out there

valid point, but i really dont want to fall too far behind. if we assume that we started with 4 others and 17 survivors, then we are already down to 4 to 15...if we lynch another survivor today and then they kill another one of us at night, we are down to 4 to 13....odds are way in their favor at that point, so i really think tomorrow night is a very important vote for us...we need to get an other.

hoopsguy · 02-12-2006, 03:48 PM

Blade, it helps a great deal if Pennywise is an other. If not, then ... not so much.

Seriously, perhaps getting the ball rolling on votes will lead him to engage a little more in the discussion.

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

23.) The game isn't werewolves versus villagers per se, but more of the television show Lost.

Just noting that...havent seen it come into play yet, but i bet it means something...might be alternative victory conditions then we expect, either for us or others...or some other twist i havent thought of yet

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, it helps a great deal if Pennywise is an other. If not, then ... not so much.

Seriously, perhaps getting the ball rolling on votes will lead him to engage a little more in the discussion.

Hes here...its half the reason i did...i dont want him leaving without talking

pennywisesb · 02-12-2006, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pennywise - Post #508

Voting for King doesn't implicate you in any way, anymore than any other first day vote.

But ...
1.) Do you think that all of the "others" had their votes on Mr.W?
2.) If there was a two-horse race developing (even if it involved one of their own) do you think that one of the votes on King would have been from an other?

My reasoning for voting king was more out of trying to save Mr. W than anything else. Like I said, W had been a good player in past WW games and I didn't think we could afford losing him right off the bat. I didn't have any suspicions of King, as it was the first day, but I felt King was more expendable than Mr. W since at that point one or the other was going down.

Quote:

The list of people with votes on King included Mr W (not an other), Blade, Raiders Army, and you.

I'm sure the others tried to spread their votes around. Most votes were on either king or Mr. W, but there were also votes on other players. Its pretty hard to analyze first day voting patterns because its so easy to hide votes. If you're asking me to draw attention to one of the players who voted for King, I don't have anything solid. For some reason in these games I always get suspicious of Blade, but I think thats mostly his playing style since he always seems to turn out good. RA is another story. I know its early, but he seems to be tip-toeing alittle bit in this game. He's given character analysis when its needed, but hasn't really starting throwing his weight in one direction or the other.

To be honest, I'm pretty lost at this point as far as being able to get a read on anyone. Plus, with the lack of some players' activity, its making it even harder to try to figure out who's who.

Raiders Army · 02-12-2006, 03:56 PM

I just got back on...I have a lot of shovelling to do since it just stopped snowing, BTW

Correct me hoops, but a vote tonight won't tinker with impressions. I now think guesswork won't work unless I help the team. How many hero-roles are out there? On the positive side, we can guess that there are probably 4 baddies out there, and hopefully we can guess how many "good" roles we have as well. Many the same number?

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

My reasoning for voting king was more out of trying to save Mr. W than anything else. Like I said, W had been a good player in past WW games and I didn't think we could afford losing him right off the bat. I didn't have any suspicions of King, as it was the first day, but I felt King was more expendable than Mr. W since at that point one or the other was going down.

I'm sure the others tried to spread their votes around. Most votes were on either king or Mr. W, but there were also votes on other players. Its pretty hard to analyze first day voting patterns because its so easy to hide votes. If you're asking me to draw attention to one of the players who voted for King, I don't have anything solid. For some reason in these games I always get suspicious of Blade, but I think thats mostly his playing style since he always seems to turn out good. RA is another story. I know its early, but he seems to be tip-toeing alittle bit in this game. He's given character analysis when its needed, but hasn't really starting throwing his weight in one direction or the other.

To be honest, I'm pretty lost at this point as far as being able to get a read on anyone. Plus, with the lack of some players' activity, its making it even harder to try to figure out who's who.

Personally i rate King and mr. w pretty as close as you can in value...but to each his own.

As for raiders, it was raiders and i throwing a fit over mr. w being lynched...the ONLY two really taking a stance...everyone else just voted quietly or just didnt care...im not saying hes good, but he has been by far one of the most sided(picking a side) players in the game.

As for me, ive been on a long villager/good side run, and every game i still get voted against on day one(usually schmidty is good for a vote on me...this game is no different). My play style doesnt win many fans, but it works for me. Others have their own styles, and im always suspicious of people like you(quiet ones)...to each his own again.

As for today, im trying to stir up conversation. Id rather lynch you then raiders, based on yesterdays play. And since i think a wolf voted for king your a 50/50 odds of being bad in my mind...thats amazing odds

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I just got back on...I have a lot of shovelling to do since it just stopped snowing, BTW

Correct me hoops, but a vote tonight won't tinker with impressions. I now think guesswork won't work unless I help the team. How many hero-roles are out there? On the positive side, we can guess that there are probably 4 baddies out there, and hopefully we can guess how many "good" roles we have as well. Many the same number?

I could certainly see 3 with a dark spy or turncoat....i guess i could also see some 3rd party since hoops said this is lost and people were talking about two different groups of survivors(one other in both)...could we have 2 groups of villagers working against eachother without us knowing? Like mr. w was clan a and now clan a is down a man. Clan B got points for it and are working towards a goal(like crown a king game)...random thoughts

Raiders Army · 02-12-2006, 04:01 PM

dola, maybe the same number i mean.

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

dola, maybe the same number i mean.

you should know you cant get dolas in when im around

Alan T · 02-12-2006, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I could certainly see 3 with a dark spy or turncoat....i guess i could also see some 3rd party since hoops said this is lost and people were talking about two different groups of survivors(one other in both)...could we have 2 groups of villagers working against eachother without us knowing? Like mr. w was clan a and now clan a is down a man. Clan B got points for it and are working towards a goal(like crown a king game)...random thoughts

Kind of like survivor? Clan A or Clan B wins if the entire other Clan gets voted off?
Interesting idea, but I don't see it logisitically possible based on what we know. Unless it would happen behind the scenes and then suddenly one day we're told congrats your clan that you did not know you were a part of wins. I think there possibly could be some other win scenerio based on what Ardent said, but right now I'm guessing its still a basic us vs select few others.

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Kind of like survivor? Clan A or Clan B wins if the entire other Clan gets voted off?
Interesting idea, but I don't see it logisitically possible based on what we know. Unless it would happen behind the scenes and then suddenly one day we're told congrats your clan that you did not know you were a part of wins. I think there possibly could be some other win scenerio based on what Ardent said, but right now I'm guessing its still a basic us vs select few others.

Im just thinking what makes sense with that ardent comment i quoted. Maybe two-three villager groups with others in each...maybe that doesnt make sense...just trying to make sense of people saying there were two groups of survivors and others infiltrated both groups

pennywisesb · 02-12-2006, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

As for today, im trying to stir up conversation. Id rather lynch you then raiders, based on yesterdays play. And since i think a wolf voted for king your a 50/50 odds of being bad in my mind...thats amazing odds

What makes you so sure there must have been an "other" vote on King? There could have been as many as 2 "other" votes on W and two "others" spread out in various places.

All I know at this point is that Mr. W was a survivor (someone who I voted to save), and so am I. Other than those two facts, I don't really know too much else.

By the way, it seems as though there are now at least 3-4 people "suspicious" of me now, so beware of a bandwagon since thats exactly what you are stiring up Blade.

Blade6119 · 02-12-2006, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

What makes you so sure there must have been an "other" vote on King? There could have been as many as 2 "other" votes on W and two "others" spread out in various places.

All I know at this point is that Mr. W was a survivor (someone who I voted to save), and so am I. Other than those two facts, I don't really know too much else.

By the way, it seems as though there are now at least 3-4 people "suspicious" of me now, so beware of a bandwagon since thats exactly what you are stiring up Blade.

I cant imagine 2 wolves would vote mr w unless king is a wolf...assuming hes not, id say a max of one wolf on mr w(prob. 0)

Looking at you, i see this(if wolf)...you defend a villager, not apart of the lynch vote, and cast a tie vote...all solid villager moves...making key villager moves is suspicious(odd how that works)...and if king is bad it looks even better later.

Celeval · 02-12-2006, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Im just thinking what makes sense with that ardent comment i quoted. Maybe two-three villager groups with others in each...maybe that doesnt make sense...just trying to make sense of people saying there were two groups of survivors and others infiltrated both groups

Yes, but by the middle of season 2, the two camps had merged. So I'm not really sure they are really in contention against each other.

Alan T · 02-12-2006, 04:20 PM

so someone help me here, in the show you mean 2 different airplanes crashed and had 2 set of survivors that ended up meeting on a deserted island?

Or was it 2 camps of survivors from the same crash?

spleen1015 · 02-12-2006, 04:26 PM

I wonder if I am cut out for WW. You guys have my head spinning with all of this information. Sheesh.

Celeval · 02-12-2006, 04:27 PM

Two camps from the same crash - for lack of better terms, the middle of the aircraft and the tail of the aircraft.

hoopsguy · 02-12-2006, 07:08 PM

Got very quiet here ...

I'll hit on a couple of topics here:

1.) I have zero reason to believe this game is anything other than survivors (one camp) versus others from my PM. I understand that some games involve hidden abilities that are not part of the initial PM (seeing as how I did that last game) but I would expect to know if I'm a member of some kind of faction.

2.) Spleen, most of the WW games involve taking a critical look at information and trying to determine who is legitimately trying to help and who is trying to steer the group. Hopefully you are having some measure of fun even if it is confusing right now. I think a lot of experienced players (me included) are having a hard time so far this game figuring out which way to go.

3.) Raiders, a vote tonight counts for lynch tomorrow. I think people will react to votes in some way, shape, or form. Particularly the accused ... this is not me trying to get anyone to cast a vote they are not ready to make, but if people are waiting for some kind of revelation it may not be forthcoming.

4.) Also, Raiders asked about how many roles are out there? Well, it seems like we lost two named characters up to this point but that doesn't necessarily imply that we lost two survivors with assigned roles. If we did, then this was a brutal first day. But I also think it is possible that we all have identities that correspond to characters on the show - we just don't learn which ones unless we have a special (or until we die). That is strictly a theory, and one that should be measurable over the next 1-2 days just like the lynch/"die in jail" conversation.

Poli · 02-12-2006, 07:22 PM

PackerFanatic has agreed to step in for RPI. For game purposes, consider everything RPI contributed PackerFanatic.

Thank you.

By the way, I'm glad you're all getting a kick out of the lack of information.

Celeval · 02-12-2006, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Got very quiet here ...

I'll hit on a couple of topics here:

1.) I have zero reason to believe this game is anything other than survivors (one camp) versus others from my PM. I understand that some games involve hidden abilities that are not part of the initial PM (seeing as how I did that last game) but I would expect to know if I'm a member of some kind of faction.

I would put forward the thought that it's probably both combined camps - while both of the characters we've "Lost" to date are from the first camp, the idea of the prison is from the second. I would wager that if each of us has a defined role, then they are probably from the combined set of characters (i.e. Jack, Kate, and Sawyer as well as Echo and Ana Lucia).

Desnudo · 02-12-2006, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Got very quiet here ...

4.) Also, Raiders asked about how many roles are out there? Well, it seems like we lost two named characters up to this point but that doesn't necessarily imply that we lost two survivors with assigned roles. If we did, then this was a brutal first day. But I also think it is possible that we all have identities that correspond to characters on the show - we just don't learn which ones unless we have a special (or until we die). That is strictly a theory, and one that should be measurable over the next 1-2 days just like the lynch/"die in jail" conversation.

There's definitely a limit on how many roles can be in the game without unbalancing the sides. I think there's also a limit to role capabilities. Meaning that no matter the scenario, there's a basic set of roles when you boil it down.

Good:

Seer
Bodyguard
Night wanderer
Doctor
Duke

Bad:

Anti-seer
Cloaker
Brutal
Converter

Both:

Assassin
Tie Breaker

PackerFanatic · 02-12-2006, 07:40 PM

Very happy to be in the game, I am not even going to try and catch up on things because it would take me forever. But I kinda got the gist for ardent, so I will do my best as we continue along. Good luck all! (Those others have gotta go)

Walt!

spleen1015 · 02-12-2006, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Very happy to be in the game, I am not even going to try and catch up on things because it would take me forever. But I kinda got the gist for ardent, so I will do my best as we continue along. Good luck all! (Those others have gotta go)

Walt!

Are you a good guy or a bad guy?

02-12-2006, 09:23 AM	#503
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	dola, above comment has half tongue in cheek... __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

02-12-2006, 02:18 PM	#513
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	Right now my biggest suspect is penny. He is the one that tied me back up with Mr. W late in day. I know it's not much to go on, but from what I sense everyone else has little or no clue on what is going on either. Hopefully, we can gain some solid info from day 2 and night 2. __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

02-12-2006, 03:35 PM	#523
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	VOTE PENNYWISESB Does that help hoops? __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

02-12-2006, 07:22 PM	#546
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	PackerFanatic has agreed to step in for RPI. For game purposes, consider everything RPI contributed PackerFanatic. Thank you. By the way, I'm glad you're all getting a kick out of the lack of information. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

02-12-2006, 07:40 PM	#549
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Very happy to be in the game, I am not even going to try and catch up on things because it would take me forever. But I kinda got the gist for ardent, so I will do my best as we continue along. Good luck all! (Those others have gotta go) Walt! __________________ Commissioner of the RNFL

02-12-2006, 09:29 AM	#505
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	dola, this was when we still worked from the assumption that the jail was only a jail and not a spot where we someone went until their lynch death actually took place.

02-12-2006, 09:32 AM	#506
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	double dola, i am in pretty much the same boat as blade and hoops with very little as far as an idea of what to do during our next day. I had absolutely nothing on day one, so i just went with my vengance vote for alan, and never saw a reason to change it....now i have to come up with something different for day 2, hope we had a witness or the seer got a hit to give us some help.

02-12-2006, 02:45 PM	#519
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	didnt tangle miss because of the time difference?

02-12-2006, 03:39 PM	#525
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	I Dont have a problem with the pennywise concept, he has always been excellent at hiding in the shadows, but i am gonna hold off on my vote until tomorrow, still hoping for some insight from one of our special role players. (note: not asking for a role reveal, i like subtle hints)

02-12-2006, 03:48 PM	#528
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Blade, it helps a great deal if Pennywise is an other. If not, then ... not so much. Seriously, perhaps getting the ball rolling on votes will lead him to engage a little more in the discussion.

02-12-2006, 03:56 PM	#532
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	I just got back on...I have a lot of shovelling to do since it just stopped snowing, BTW Correct me hoops, but a vote tonight won't tinker with impressions. I now think guesswork won't work unless I help the team. How many hero-roles are out there? On the positive side, we can guess that there are probably 4 baddies out there, and hopefully we can guess how many "good" roles we have as well. Many the same number?

02-12-2006, 04:01 PM	#535
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	dola, maybe the same number i mean.

02-12-2006, 04:20 PM	#542
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	so someone help me here, in the show you mean 2 different airplanes crashed and had 2 set of survivors that ended up meeting on a deserted island? Or was it 2 camps of survivors from the same crash?

02-12-2006, 04:26 PM	#543
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	I wonder if I am cut out for WW. You guys have my head spinning with all of this information. Sheesh.

02-12-2006, 04:27 PM	#544
Celeval Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Cary, NC, USA	Two camps from the same crash - for lack of better terms, the middle of the aircraft and the tail of the aircraft.

02-12-2006, 07:08 PM	#545
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Got very quiet here ... I'll hit on a couple of topics here: 1.) I have zero reason to believe this game is anything other than survivors (one camp) versus others from my PM. I understand that some games involve hidden abilities that are not part of the initial PM (seeing as how I did that last game) but I would expect to know if I'm a member of some kind of faction. 2.) Spleen, most of the WW games involve taking a critical look at information and trying to determine who is legitimately trying to help and who is trying to steer the group. Hopefully you are having some measure of fun even if it is confusing right now. I think a lot of experienced players (me included) are having a hard time so far this game figuring out which way to go. 3.) Raiders, a vote tonight counts for lynch tomorrow. I think people will react to votes in some way, shape, or form. Particularly the accused ... this is not me trying to get anyone to cast a vote they are not ready to make, but if people are waiting for some kind of revelation it may not be forthcoming. 4.) Also, Raiders asked about how many roles are out there? Well, it seems like we lost two named characters up to this point but that doesn't necessarily imply that we lost two survivors with assigned roles. If we did, then this was a brutal first day. But I also think it is possible that we all have identities that correspond to characters on the show - we just don't learn which ones unless we have a special (or until we die). That is strictly a theory, and one that should be measurable over the next 1-2 days just like the lynch/"die in jail" conversation.

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