December Console Sales Numbers

[MJ4H]

I didn't even look very far into that list and I found several games that are quite good. For instance:

Marble Madness Kororinpa, NiGHTS, Big Brain Academy, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, Dewy's Adventure, and Smartypants.

If those have been reviewed poorly, there are a lot of poor reviewers out there. Those are all quite good. I've even heard Kororinpa mentioned as most innovative game of the year (not just Wii games).

[Balldog]

A buddy at work was telling me to hold off on buying a PS3 because there is a better version coming out the end of February/beginning of March. Is there any truth to this? What's the price? I haven't seen anything on either but I haven't been able to keep in touch with this thread either.

[Big Fo]

Supposedly one is coming out with a 120 GB hard-drive, no word yet if it will have backwards compatibility or what else to add value. 80 GB of space on it's own can't justify what you would assume will be a $100 more expensive model. Maybe it could come with a rumble controller?

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Article on Kotaku reporting that PS2 backward compatibility is still a possibility on the 40 GB machine. Shouldn't be too surprising that a software emulation is possibly in the works............

If they don't introduce this quickly, I can't see the point in introducing it at all. Backwards compatibility is desirable early in a console lifecycle, but as more and more games are released, fewer and fewer PS3 owners are going to care about their PS2 games.

[Ryan S]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Supposedly one is coming out with a 120 GB hard-drive, no word yet if it will have backwards compatibility or what else to add value. 80 GB of space on it's own can't justify what you would assume will be a $100 more expensive model. Maybe it could come with a rumble controller?

Given that the PS3 can easily be upgraded with a regular laptop 2.5" HD, I think they would need to offer more than just a larger disk drive to charge an extra $100.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Independent 3rd-party provides failure their failure percentages for consoles. According to their sample size of around 1,000, PS3 and Wii have a failure rate around 3% and the Xbox 360 has a failure rate of 16.4% (includes numbers from both Xenon and Falcon models).........

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3166259


Bill Harris discusses the reported 'shortages' of the Xbox 360. As he mentions, the MS comments that they couldn't handle a demand increase of 25% over the previous holiday season don't seem to make sense. More likely is a reduction of the current models in stock to introduce a new SKU. Also a possibility is a slowdown in manufacturing to allow time to fix the quality control issues still happening in the Falcon chipset...........

http://dubiousquality.blogspot.com/2...-week-hmm.html

[Fidatelo]

I've got a question for MBBF (or anyone else who can answer): what does Bill Harris do? I've been reading his blog for months now since seeing links from MBBF, and it's great, but I can't figure out exactly who this guy is. Does he simply blog about video games? Is he a reviewer from some site? Does he work in the industry? I googled him and came up with nothing...

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I've got a question for MBBF (or anyone else who can answer): what does Bill Harris do? I've been reading his blog for months now since seeing links from MBBF, and it's great, but I can't figure out exactly who this guy is. Does he simply blog about video games? Is he a reviewer from some site? Does he work in the industry? I googled him and came up with nothing...

Bill's "regular" job isn't in the gaming industry. He started blogging about games just because he enjoys it. As his readership has grown, he's developed some pretty good contacts in the industry. There's several developers that he chats with via e-mail, but he doesn't publicly post that info. He's also written some op-ed articles for a few sites on occasion.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

More third-party Wii concerns. This time it's coming from the director of 'No More Heroes'. Says that the system is not profitable for anyone other than Nintendo.............

http://www.computerandvideogames.com....php?id=179648

Goichi Suda, otherwise known as Killer 7 and No More Heroes director Suda 51, claims that third-party titles for the Wii aren't selling in his home land and that only Nintendo is really profiting from its success.

Speaking about the sales of No More Heroes in Japan, he told us, "Whilst the sales weren't as high as I hoped, other titles for Wii aren't selling so well either. Only Nintendo titles are doing well. This isn't just because of the current situation in Japan, as this is happening outside Japan."

He also expressed surprise over the casual audience that has been the primary adopters of the Wii. "Actually I was very surprised about the reality about Wii, because before I was making this game, I wasn't expecting that Wii would be a console targeted only for non-gamers. I expected more games for hardcore gamers. The reality is different to what I expected".

No More Heroes was released in Japan last year to impressive reviews, but failed to set the retail world alight. It's been reported that on its launch day, it took twenty minutes for someone to buy a copy at a signing, and even then it was a journalist from Famitsu.

The Wii title is released in the UK on February 29. Based on NGamer's glowing review, we hope and pray it does better over here.

Look out for our full interview with Suda 51 later this week.

[MikeVic]

Sharp knife there, that Suda. How could you not know the Wii is targeted towards casual gamers... even when it was the "Revolution" it was being targeted towards casual gamers!!

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Bill's "regular" job isn't in the gaming industry. He started blogging about games just because he enjoys it. As his readership has grown, he's developed some pretty good contacts in the industry. There's several developers that he chats with via e-mail, but he doesn't publicly post that info. He's also written some op-ed articles for a few sites on occasion.

Thanks for the info, I've been curious for some time.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Sharp knife there, that Suda. How could you not know the Wii is targeted towards casual gamers... even when it was the "Revolution" it was being targeted towards casual gamers!!

"Actually I was very surprised about the reality about Wii, because before I was making this game, I wasn't expecting that Wii would be a console targeted only for non-gamers. I expected more games for hardcore gamers. The reality is different to what I expected".

To be fair, he didn't state that he didn't know it was targeted towards casual gamers. He stated that he was surprised how much casual gaming that there was on the system and that he thought there would be room for more hardcore games in addition to the casual games.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

NPD preview article from Michael Pachter. Note that NPD is only using 4 weeks of sales for their January numbers.....................

January 2008 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect -9% Sales Growth Due To Fewer Week

• We expect January U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, February 14. We forecast sales of $500 million, -9% compared to last year’s $549 million. It is important to note that this January comprises only four weeks compared to five weeks last year. On an adjusted 4-week comparison, our estimate of $500 million represents +14% sales growth.

• Our estimate reflects $395 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $105 million. We estimate sell-through of 420,000 Wii, 290,000 Xbox 360 and 240,000 PS3 consoles. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts 403,000 Wii, 289,000 Xbox 360 and 200,000 PS3 consoles sold in January. We think that the GameStop Wii raincheck promotion has the potential to inflate the Wii figure even higher than our forecast.

• Console software sales growth in 2007 was a robust 34%, well ahead of our forecast of 19% growth for the year. In December, software sales were up 36% over December 2006. Notwithstanding the negative calendar shift adjustment this month, we think that December sales momentum will drive robust sales in January, with the sector appearing
recession-proof.

• Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft have already announced strong holiday sales of their consoles, with Nintendo raising its forecast for DS and Wii hardware sales, while Sony slightly lowered its forecast for PS3 sales, but raised it for PS2 and PSP sales. Our console sell-through forecasts are consistent with these announcements.

• We think that solid software sales growth will continue into early 2008, as the holiday lineup includes high priced (and sold out) games like Guitar Hero III and Rock Band, and the post-holiday line-up is also quite strong. We recommend that investors accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, Nintendo, THQ, and Ubisoft shares at current levels.

• For January, we expect the following revenue results:
o Activision -- $110 million, +61% y-o-y.
o Atari -- $6 million, +5% y-o-y.
o Electronic Arts -- $105 million, +15% y-o-y.
o Majesco -- $5 million, +23% y-o-y.
o Midway -- $8 million, -18% y-o-y.
o Nintendo -- $95 million, +20% y-o-y.
o Take-Two -- $24 million, -11% y-o-y.
o THQ -- $28 million, -17% y-o-y.
o Ubisoft -- $55 million, +62% y-o-y.

We expect January sales of $500 million (-9% compared to January 2007’s $549 million). On an adjusted 4-week comparison, our estimate of $500 million represents +14% sales growth. We expect next generation software sales of $395 million and current-generation software sales of $105 million. We believe that PS2 software sales declined 40% year-over-year, as continued adoption of next generation consoles has reduced demand in current generation software. PS2 software sales decreased 24% in 2007 and were down 22% in December. The degree of PS2 software sales decline over the next several months will likely be highly correlated to next generation console sales, with year-over-year increases in next generation consoles purchases likely to accelerate declining demand for current generation software.

We expect January sales to be driven by recent top selling releases Nintendo’s Super Mario Galaxy and Wii Play, Activision’s Call of Duty 4 and Guitar Hero III, and Electronic Arts’ Rock Band. January is another light month for new releases as most publishers try to release their biggest games before the holiday selling season. The top January releases were Electronic Arts’ Burnout Paradise (PS3, 360) and Nintendo’s Advance Wars: Days of Ruin (DS).

Our forecasts for console hardware sales are as follows (The simExchange prediction market forecasts are provided for comparison):

WMS TSE*
Wii 420,000 403,000
PS3 240,000 200,000
Xbox 360 290,000 289,000
PS2 190,000 n/a
PSP 200,000 250,000
DS 350,000 460,000
GBA 5,000 n/a

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Bill Harris discusses the reported 'shortages' of the Xbox 360. As he mentions, the MS comments that they couldn't handle a demand increase of 25% over the previous holiday season don't seem to make sense. More likely is a reduction of the current models in stock to introduce a new SKU. Also a possibility is a slowdown in manufacturing to allow time to fix the quality control issues still happening in the Falcon chipset...........

One theory on the shortages I read was that MS was due to announce a new SKU with an HD-DVD drive built in but they changed their mind when Warner Bros. announced they were going exclusively to Blu-Ray. But who knows.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

'World in Conflict' is no longer a 360 exclusive. It will now have a simultaneous release on the PS3.............

http://www.worthplaying.com/article....thread&order=0

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Some new game announcements. Red Alert 3 on the way for the PS3/360/PC.........

http://www.gamersyde.com/game_1549_en.html

Vigilante 8: Arcade on the way to XBLA........

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/15712/...x-Live-Arcade/