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Old 06-23-2020, 10:54 AM   #1051
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
...

It's time to get over QB Denny. Pick machine, fool's gold, cut. Amir Walsh likely makes the cut to 60, but maybe not to 53.

TE Bush was a fill-in for leadership, but with Austin back he's out as surplus. I like my group on hand okay - TE1 Covington, TE2 Ogden, good-skills-fit Money, and maybe inactive chem gimp Polley. That ignores rookie FB Hillhouse for now, I still don't know what to do with him, but a formal move to TE is very unlikely now.

At FB since I'm there, Hillhouse is the tantalizing "weapon" guy, but 5th rounder Ricker actually looks like the better fit as a true lead blocker conventional FB role. Pleased with both of them, though it's arguably unwise to invest in a non-critical position like I have here. We signed free agent rookie Szymanski and veteran Martin, and right now both look like good players whom we just can't roster. $4.5m bonus out the door to Martin... harkens to my WTF observations with Atlanta and TE Austin, tbh.

Wow, our DL looks so, so awful. We'll fill in with linebackers, but ugh.

Looking at our skill position openers for this year, we need to push FB Hillhouse, FB Ricker, and likely RB Trimble out there. WR Kesselman and OT Kratzer just don't look like they can squeeze in, I fear. Cut cut.

...and that's 60. 53 will be tough but not unworkable.
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Old 06-23-2020, 11:46 AM   #1052
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Thinkin' I need to mix in some pageant winners and Top 40 records here, working on that angle.
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Old 06-24-2020, 09:37 AM   #1053
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Post-preseason rookie draft:

1(18) SE Warren Behne 56/77
1(11) FL Parker VanCaeyzeele 47/67
3(16) LDE Kevin Turnbull 43/55
5(14) RCB Darrell Burroughs 28/38
4(15) RG Perry Kendrick 25/69
2(17) FB Kristopher Hillhouse 51/66
5(8) FB Branden Ricker 31/53

Welp, jury's probably back in, and at WR... 18 > 11. I'm glad to have landed both guys, but I had them graded as a coin toss. Given that lots of PVC's 68 potential rating is presumably tied up in return skills (which I have covered elsewhere), the margin seems substantial. They will both get a lot of looks right away... I mean, why not? This is not a 12-win team this year. These are the guys we are building our next 12-win team around, though.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-24-2020 at 09:38 AM.
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Old 06-24-2020, 10:27 AM   #1054
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Here's the roster down to 53. Honestly, CB Shawn Vaughn doesn't deserve the slot any longer, his PR skills have faded, he's now only a ST 100 guy, with no affinity. If I have the time, I may re-do the file and find a slot for someone else (like the rookie RB I kinda liked) to stick. Unlikely, though, busy day.

Code:
Front Office Football Eight Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct Levine, Salvador 105 QB QB 7 46 46 4 yrs. Justin, Evan 115 QB 2 17 29 3 yrs. Schweigert, Bernie 222 RB RB 5 47 47 2 yrs. Bush, Edwin 230 RB 5 42 42 2 yrs. Hillhouse, Kristopher 349 FB 1 50 65 4 yrs. Ricker, Branden 344 FB FB 1 32 52 4 yrs. Covington, Elijah 484 TE 7 60 60 3 yrs. Ogden, Leon 448 TE TE 3 56 56 2 yrs. Money, Vinny 446 TE 3 40 40 2 yrs. ##Polley, Wade 441 TE 2 31 34 1 yr. ##Austin, Ronald 480 TE 9 16 16 2 yrs. VanCaeyzeele, Parker 511 FL 1 47 67 4 yrs. Woods, B.J. 583 FL 4 45 45 3 yrs. Booker, Cameron 588 FL 5 43 43 3 yrs. Bridges, Buddy 585 FL FL 2 27 34 3 yrs. Behne, Warren 518 SE SE 1 56 77 4 yrs. ##Stocz, Lonnie 512 SE 6 50 50 2 yrs. ##Conway, Marco 516 SE 8 20 20 2 yrs. Glode, J.R. 670 C C 5 69 69 3 yrs. Fattel, Jackie 765 LG 4 32 38 2 yrs. Kendrick, Perry 768 RG RG 1 24 68 4 yrs. O'Donnell, Miguel 861 LT RT 4 75 75 5 yrs. Shepherd, Tyrus 863 LT LT 9 73 73 3 yrs. Odom, Arnold 860 LT LG 5 50 53 1 yr. Jennings, Caiden 878 RT 3 24 31 2 yrs. Frederick, Edwin 904 P 11 45 45 1 yr. Thomas, Mario 1003K 5 86 86 3 yrs. Woods, Lorenzo 1159LDE 6 52 52 2 yrs. Turnbull, Kevin 1191LDE LDE 1 43 54 4 yrs. Barker, Tevin 1195LDE RDE 5 39 39 3 yrs. ##Baxter, Gilbert 1179LDE 8 13 13 2 yrs. Scott, Justics 1292NT NT 7 56 56 1 yr. Schneider, Gavin 1297NT 6 37 37 2 yrs. Beardslee, Rodolfo 1354SILB WLB 6 51 51 3 yrs. Peterson, Edgar 1351SILB 7 42 42 2 yrs. Schenk, Rich 1356WILB SILB 3 58 58 1 yr. Roybal, Giovanni 1350WILB WILB 5 39 39 1 yr. Michl, Gilbert 1455SLB SLB 9 66 66 3 yrs. Thomas, Burt 1447SLB 2 45 45 1 yr. Thill, Moe 1457WLB 2 41 41 3 yrs. Givens, Dana 1452WLB 5 39 39 1 yr. Lentzner, Kody 1538LCB SS 7 70 70 4 yrs. Maas, Josue 1524LCB LCB 7 69 69 3 yrs. Bernardino, Shaun 1507RCB 5 67 67 4 yrs. Calmus, Collin 1539RCB 6 50 50 3 yrs. Wiggins, Les 1526RCB 3 49 49 2 yrs. Vaughn, Shawn 1506RCB 4 29 29 2 yrs. Burroughs, Darrell 1537RCB RCB 1 27 40 4 yrs. ##Patterson, Mitchell 1536RCB 3 25 29 2 yrs. McCormick, Kendrick 1633SS 7 45 45 1 yr. Padilla, Dustin 1625FS FS 4 42 42 3 yrs. $$Conners, Jake 1629FS 6 40 40 3 yrs. Tamburrino, Toby 669 LS 9 17 17 1 yr. $$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive, ** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR. Players Under Contract: 53 Inactive: 6 On Active Roster: 46 Salary Cap: $694,500,000 Cap Room: $42,790,000 Maximum for New Player: $45,410,000 Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $47,400,000 Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $8,190,000 Cap Room Required Next Year: $591,300,000
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Old 06-24-2020, 10:37 AM   #1055
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
File sent. CB/PR Vaughn released, RB Trimble's release rescinded. He'll stay on the team but won't get starts this season. But with Bush taking a ratings hit, the RB plan is under close surveillance now. Trimble could be a long term RB2 asset. Rookie FB Hillhouse is going to be the 3rd down back this season, we'll see if that pays off.
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Old 06-24-2020, 10:49 AM   #1056
Chas in Cinti
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Sort of digging the new look Ravens... if we can find a pass rush and keep the ST excellence, the rebuild won't take long...
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Old 06-24-2020, 12:43 PM   #1057
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU

File sent. Have some misgivings about how I have handled the now/later blend here - I have jettisoned a number of mediocre veterans, in order to build up a lot of "potential affinity" guys whom I cannot click in rapidly enough to make it worthwhile. Too late to fix this, but I'm running this team with around 50% of the level of attention I would give to "my team" and it's showing a bit.

What sucks is we landed a QB, have two serious receivers, and the roster overall is good enough that we could be a contender. Probably not a 13-win bye week team, but we could surely defend our division title. I've lessened the chances of that coming together well by fiddling around too much with high personality "fits" in places where I don't have the room to push them into place yet.

Anyway...a little gadgetry in the works this season, too. No idea if it will pay off, but the specific situation merits it, I think.
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Old 06-24-2020, 10:20 PM   #1058
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Predictions:

Baltimore goes 8-8 again. Young receivers get targets, offense is mid-level, and defense is about average, also. Youth is served, but we get another season without a real plan at QB, as SL gives us something like 6.5ypt, and a 3:2 TD/Int ratio which just won't cut it unless other facets of the team are in full gear.

DC puts up an 8-8 season also, and maybe that's again enough to win a weak division. Third QB in three seasons is good but not great, but we realize it's a process. I don't expect anything too notably stats-wise, maybe our WR1 posts another all-pro season, but past that, yawns all around as we build ahead.


Ugh, hope you didn't come here to be thrilled. The WRs have me excited about these Ravens. The DC team has another major step to take, but there are a couple pieces in place that I like there, too. Both could easily lock in at a higher level (second tier contender) with one or two key additions - a QB in Baltimore, and perhaps a pass rusher in DC.
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Old 06-25-2020, 05:36 AM   #1059
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Ravens Roster Needs

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2119

Could be a lot worse. BenBot says we have too-lousy players in several starting slots, and I would generally agree there. D-line most of all - I'm pleased with my 3rd round rookie Turnbull, but it's more like "yay, I got a decent DE3 type in the third round which seems like pretty good value" rather than "here's the next Jason Taylor." We have limited-skill pass rushers, but in retrospect maybe would have been better off overpaying for DE Helming, and preserving his cohesion and run-stopping foundation? (Doing that would have cost us QB Levine, but... so what?) Anyway, bygones will be bygones, Helming is playing on the standard FOF minsal one-year deal, and may be available in free agency next offseason - if so, he'd be the best player out there at DL for us, assuming we stick with our chemistry scheme (news flash: IF).

The BenBot also dislikes our guards, while noting our depth at tackle - okay, fair enough, but asked and answered. The rookie Kendrick gets to start this year, but if we were truly in go-for-it mode, we'd have just played four tackles all season. OL is fine talent-wise, I think, the main need is for chemistry/cohesion to sort out.

The BenBot dislikes our safeties, but when CB Lentzner either officially moves to S or just plays there, suddenly everything is fine. That's a strength, not a weakness, we're fine at safety and actually GREAT at DB generally, just in case that, you know, matters.


Areas for actual focus next offseason:
DL
QB (naturally vaults to top of list if there's an actual fit)
DL
RB
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:16 AM   #1060
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Okay, it's game time.

Ravens Go 8-8 Again

What are our takeaways here?

-I don't put a ton of stock into these gross numbers, but #6 in total O and #23 in total D adds up to an 8-8 team, all right... harumph

QB Levine - wait, what a season! Up to 7.36 ypt, a great ratio of 33/9, and a rating of 97.4...that's a legit top-tier QB season from him. Just from better receivers?

Rookie receivers were both up over 7.5 ypt in their initial seasons... that's a good sign, in this offense. TE Covington was a net drag at only 5.5, but we have things to build upon here.

Running game was solid - Bush posted over 5 ypc again despite a ratings tumble, Schweigert in limited duty was near 5.2, and Levine scrambled for his own 575 yards - nice work by the lot there. FB Hillhouse in the 3rd down role was...unexciting... with 52-227 rushing, but over 7 ypt in 19 targets.

Pass rush was, unsurprisingly, anemic. 19.2% way below my standard, and below the league average. Not good enough. OLB Dana Givens was the only effective guy, and he's a walk-away free agent. Really needed more from DE Woods. Major need area for us.

Secondary were great, it seems, ratings really good for coverage - we are tough to pass against, we just need some pressure to bring it together.


We'll take away that we have our WR corps in good shape for the first time in a long time, and that's good enough for one season, I reckon. Next year, we should be playing like we have a shot.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-25-2020 at 09:16 AM.
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:24 AM   #1061
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU

United Go 9-6-1 To Defend Division Title

Well, the team was roughly what I expected - we eke out another win over a weak division. Not a playoff threat, but there are flashes of what could be here, I think. We lost our last two...so at one point we stood at 9-4-1 and presumably in the picture for a bye week. We can build on that.

QB Rondell Clancy got things going in the right direction, turning his career TD/Int ratio from even to nearly 2:1. He's never going to be super cautious, but he ought to be good enough to build around.

WR Bouchette had a fun season in a swiss army role - 535 yards rushing as the best guy on the team to carry the rock, and another 414 in various true receiving roles. Not sure the correct long term role for him, probably just as full time split end, but this was an intriguing dabble. Malone was a target hog again with 1,798 yards and 14 TD on his 22 targets... why throw to anyone else, really? We need a legit TE for this roster, stat.

Pass rush and secondary were weak here, no surprise after I've run those positions through the ringer, just no stability.


Fun times in the capital city.
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:53 AM   #1062
Chas in Cinti
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Location: Cincinnati, OH
My take on Baltimore is we're closer than I thought... Front 7 is your wheelhouse, so I have faith in a fix there... 4 year run with 2 championships is coming...
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:03 AM   #1063
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
Special teams side note:

Punt returns: 20.0 (1st)
PR Allowed: 6.0 (3rd)

Kick returns: 28.3 (3rd)
KR allowed: 20.4 (1st)

I like what I'm seeing there, despite having lesser overall ST talent compared to a few seasons ago, we really delivered this season. My inexplicable man crush for CB/PR Shawn Vaughn continues - he finally put together a great season as return man and gunner. His slot as the only non-affinity guy on the whole defense is fairly solid.

One season later, CB Vaughn takes a dive in his PR rating (to 50-ish), and gets released. Disappointing. But we had solid options for our return men.

Two teams in largely the same system/league:

BALTIMORE

(WR Behne 76 PR, 77/95 ST)
Punt returns: 13.5 (8th)
PR Allowed: 3.5 (1st)

(CB Burroughs 85 KR, 93 ST)
Kick returns: 28.4 (3rd)
KR allowed: 25.0 (24th) WTF?

DC

(WR Robbins 75 PR, 2 ST)
Punt returns: 16.9 (2nd)
PR Allowed: 5.4 (2nd)

(RB Ross 59/63 KR, 2 ST)
Kick returns: 24.0 (13th)
KR allowed: 20.3 (2nd)


So, your takeaway: as GM, I am paying attention to special teams, probably more than the average human GM, and surely more than the multiple AI teams. So, we should be better than average - and both teams are.

We'll write off the weak BAL KR average to small sample size (only 21 KRs), and maybe that got altered by one TD or something. We'll expect a return to the top tier in time.

I think this is worth emphasizing in a no-injury league, and will continue to try to do all the items on my to do list...so a young guy like 25/29 CB Patterson likely has a role on the active roster for life, with his minsal contract expectations, 64/83 ST rating, and 10 starts triggering an exceptional affinity.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-25-2020 at 10:04 AM.
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:08 AM   #1064
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
A side benny of missing the playoffs in the GML is I get a shot at some free agents in this stage. rarely any major impacts, but for me occasionally there are young guys who got their starts elsewhere and can be chem assets - so we splash around. This year, Baltimore has more than its usual number of anticipated roster gaps, and if we get our net full this cycle, we will land at least one player I fully anticipate making the team next year and stepping right into a role that I'd otherwise be targeting with, perhaps, a second round pick. So, that has to count as semi-exciting. Leaking it here, hoping that doesn't backfire.
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:13 AM   #1065
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
...for good measure we should also note the Rams this year, under tzach's stewardship, and a pledge to play a ground-and-pound offense there:

GML: St. Louis Rams 2119

Only 8-8, but some interesting things happening there. The young QB whom I coveted for my Ravens took the QB1 job away from a venerable demigod, and did quite well in a run-focused attack. They didn't get him to run it very much, though - and that seems to leave much of Harden's skill set untapped (note that 4.38 dash). I reckon tzach is working on a Romanesque gameplan to make this work, and perhaps in another season we'll see them back into the top tier. Worth watching, even though this means I won't ever get my hands on Harden here in Baltimore.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-25-2020 at 10:19 AM.
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Old 06-26-2020, 09:01 AM   #1066
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
So, quarterback. Based on my prelim look-around, there's nothing noteworthy about to drop into free agency. So, my ability to just drop a bomb there and remake the team seems... limited? Shouldn't rule out a trade, of course. But, it seems unlikely we have "the answer" at hand. So, Levine was... pretty passable. We're not slinging it for 7,000 yards like the guys who do that, but the two young WR seem to be an important step in the right direction, I think. So, it's time to think this offense is capable of doing things. We have Levine signed for a few more years - so maybe it's just him, or maybe we bring along a young'n if we land one really soon.

Still feeling pangs of regret with Harden. If he fell to us, I feel like I might even be gameplanning here... trying to build a run-heavy, play-action, run-the-QB variation on our vanilla offense. I feel in my offense Harden might be neutral in the pass game, but surely could squeeze out better than 67 attempts. If we got him 120 carries like Levine, and he posted 7+ yards per, he'd be an offense-changer, right?

Anyway... the more likely path right away for us is just to try to make a couple of go-for-it free agent signings (or trades), and adjust our thinking like we are a serious contender. So, an impact pass rusher - affinity or not - and perhaps we make a move along the OL to get chemistry re-activated.
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Old 06-26-2020, 10:16 AM   #1068
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Basically at a loss for words, the KC team is all that pass-happy trendy shit, and the DC secondary was mostly rebuilt around chemistry, at a sacrifice of current talent and cohesion. We hold them to 13 points? Insanity.


We were lucky to win our opener, I honestly didn't have high hopes at all for the playoffs... might have even confessed that a 7-9 season and earlier draft pick might have been preferable. Wow.
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Old 06-26-2020, 01:33 PM   #1069
Chas in Cinti
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Location: Cincinnati, OH
Wow...
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Old 06-27-2020, 12:30 PM   #1070
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
So, let's have a look through the Ravens roster, shall we?

Code:
Front Office Football Eight Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Cntrct Levine, Salvador 105 QB 8 46 46 3 yrs. Justin, Evan 115 QB 3 17 29 2 yrs.

Okay, have discussed this plenty. No major opportunity here vie free agency. Levine stepped up to "above generic replacement level" last season, I think. So, maybe we're set... unless we find a way to make a move with a trade or in the draft.

Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Schweigert, Bernie 222 RB 6 47 47 1 yr. Bush, Edwin 230 RB 6 42 42 1 yr. Trimble, Vince 234 RB 2 35 44 1 yr. Woods, Abraham 223 RB 3 33 38 ---

Have given a good deal of thought here. Was all but set to anoint Bush the main guy, either cut Liverwurst or let him basically die on the vine, and be thinking about getting chem here aligned with QBs in the 4-5 group (both ours are there now, but so is Schweigert, our group leader here w 93/72). Bush took a ratings hit last year, and both of them are now in year 6 (love how time flies in this league)...so I don't feel I ought to be beholden to anyone, really. Would be very open to a new 6-7 or 2-3 leader here, and going in a new direction looking for youth.

Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Hillhouse, Kristopher 349 FB 2 62 66 3 yrs. Ricker, Branden 344 FB 2 35 52 3 yrs. Sinclair, Benjamin 320 FB 2 20 37 ---

Grouping these guys together because none can really be productive as a RB contributor, I suspect. Hillhouse is going to make me happy because of a fun bar pattern, but the reality is - he's likely not contributing a lick toward us winning games. Ricker is the more traditional lead blocker type (56/95 Run Bl) and in that role he managed a grand total of 1 key run block out of 5 opportunities. (It was a pancake, though)

So, Hillhouse looks tantalizing, and if we go young/bad at RB maybe we continue to rotate him in - but last year's numbers: 3.9 ypc in passing situations, and 7.2 ypt in limited passing usage... no way that doubles back to make this a "good" second round draft pick. We're loaded at decent TE, and at 5'11" that seems like a bad switch (and would mute his affinity) so... nope, he's a masturbatory FOF exercise in full, makes me feel good but doesn't accomplish a thing.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-27-2020 at 12:30 PM.
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Old 06-27-2020, 12:31 PM   #1071
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Covington, Elijah 484 TE 8 60 60 2 yrs. Ogden, Leon 448 TE 4 57 57 1 yr. Money, Vinny 446 TE 4 40 40 1 yr. Polley, Wade 441 TE 3 32 33 --- Austin, Ronald 480 TE 10 16 16 1 yr.

So, contract with Covington is for two more years, and is a serious money commitment - but his numbers last year were awfully blah (5.5 ypt). Ogden didn't get much work, in part so his reneg would be easier, but he hasn't shown us he's "worth" the $25m/yr he thinks he is. I feel like there's a lesson to be learned here with "players with a lot of solid ratings but nothing really great," but have nothing to back that up. My gameplan calls for a lot of targets to the T-TE in my 12 formation...who should get that coveted spot? I don't honestly know.

Other three guys are chemistry factors, could all come back intact and remain in mini roles.

Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate VanCaeyzeele, Parker 511 FL 2 60 67 3 yrs. Woods, B.J. 583 FL 5 45 45 2 yrs. Booker, Cameron 588 FL 6 43 43 2 yrs. Bridges, Buddy 585 FL 3 27 33 2 yrs. Behne, Warren 518 SE 2 64 77 3 yrs. Stocz, Lonnie 512 SE 7 50 50 1 yr. Conway, Marco 516 SE 9 20 20 1 yr.

Okay, obviously we had the tectonic shift last season, with 11 PCV and 18 Behne arriving. Neither is, in my mind, pure WR1 stuff, but both produced fine and are long term build-around assets for certain. Group looks fine overall.

Stocz is a cohesion/chem asset, and still a fairly decent well-rounded WR, we likely just re-sign him at $15m/yr and keep him around as a rotation guy along with the young'ns. Booker is decent but only 22 RR, so he's got limited value - but would reneg down to $7m/yr or so, and that seems sensible. That leaves young Woods as the low-RR, good other skills guy we can't find a great slot for...when our top WRs were really limited, it felt semi-exciting to have a "go play the slot" guy and see what those 80 targets would get us. Now... well, 11 is just going to get those targets, I think.

If anything, the guy we need is a high RR decoy. I cut the guy we had for that role last season, so we can't sneak cohesion out of it any longer, but that would have been the play...just too much cap hit.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-27-2020 at 12:31 PM.
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Old 06-27-2020, 12:32 PM   #1072
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Glode, J.R. 670 C 6 69 69 2 yrs. Fattel, Jackie 765 LG 5 32 37 1 yr. Dotson, Tito 762 RG 8 55 55 --- Kendrick, Perry 768 RG 2 35 68 3 yrs. O'Donnell, Miguel 861 LT 5 75 75 4 yrs. Shepherd, Tyrus 863 LT 10 73 73 2 yrs. Odom, Arnold 860 LT 6 51 51 --- Jennings, Caiden 878 RT 4 24 32 1 yr.

Okay, on pure talent/ratings, we are basically okay here. LT Shepherd is starting to fade a bit, but at 72/72 he's still an anchor caliber player, C Glode is really good, and LT/RT O'Donnell comes off an all-pro season (with 4 more years tied up) as a gifted pass blocker. If we re-sign Odom, he's good enough to start at a G slot, otherwise Kendrick and Fattel would be acceptable. FA Dotson would be a step up in run blocking especially. Anyhow, that's all good.

The problem, for me, is that Shepherd is 84/42 with chem, and I can't find anyone in the league to take it over soon. T Jennings is "on the way" sitting around as an activated affinity gimp (4-5, 93/98) but as long as Shepherd is here, he won't take the leadership reins for another season or probably two.

So, what is the "go for it" move for us along the OL for this year? It's eventually Jennings (and that's an argument for building around a 2-3 QB rather than a 4-5, by the way) but for now do we just limp along with Shepherd and his weak sauce? Probably, the talent/cohesion factor seems compelling, and Shepherd could play 6 more seasons - even in modest skill decline he'd be plenty valuable once he becomes a cohesion and chem asset.

Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Frederick, Edwin 904 P 12 45 45 --- Thomas, Mario 1003K 6 85 85 2 yrs.

Paying real money for a K seems very wrong, but right now hasn't been a major issue.
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Old 06-27-2020, 12:33 PM   #1073
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Woods, Lorenzo 1159LDE 7 52 52 1 yr. Turnbull, Kevin 1191LDE 2 51 55 3 yrs. Barker, Tevin 1195LDE 6 39 39 2 yrs. Baxter, Gilbert 1179LDE 9 13 13 1 yr. Matuzas, Gus 1193RDE 4 30 38 --- Douglas, Kim 1294RDT 3 35 51 --- Scott, Justics 1292NT 8 56 56 --- Schneider, Gavin 1297NT 7 37 37 1 yr.

Oh boy. So much to do.

The relatively good news - we have some guys who would make nice complementary pieces to having a couple of serious stars here. Baxter is great as the 11-12 group leader, for hopefully 3-4 more seasons. DE Woods has 64/88 up top but nothing to back it up. Young Turnbull projects to 40/78 atop, but still needs starts to click in for weak chem (drat), but has endurance and some decent tertiary ratings. RFA pickups have fringe potential: DE Matuzas pass rusher only but 55/82 PRTech, and Douglas is the guy I really like - 48/74 RunD and decent enough to step in for Scott as our base D starting nose.

Yeah, what's missing is the 72/72 guy who makes the whole thing go. We had a variation on that theme with Helming, but his 28 PRTech made him mostly a run stopper, and paying HUGE money for that seems dumb to me. No shock, free agency is brimming with run stoppers and last-couple-year guys...nobody is letting a 14-sack monster just buy a ticket to Baltimore. Might be a draft target, sadly.

Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Beardslee, Rodolfo 1354SILB 7 51 51 2 yrs. Peterson, Edgar 1351SILB 8 42 42 1 yr. Schenk, Rich 1356WILB 4 58 58 --- Roybal, Giovanni 1350WILB 6 38 38 --- Michl, Gilbert 1455SLB 10 65 65 2 yrs. Thomas, Burt 1447SLB 3 46 46 --- Thill, Moe 1457WLB 3 41 41 2 yrs. Givens, Dana 1452WLB 6 40 40 ---

Okay, finding and grabbing Michl was great as a tide-us-over, but we have a somewhat less acute issue here as along the DL. Lots of decent pieces, but no star to really build around. I tend to find these guys in the last 1st round of drafts, so that's a possibility... unexciting as it may be. Peterson is okay at everything, great in coverage, and that has theoretical value - 13 PD over the last two seasons is something, but not 13 a year. We'll re-sign Schenk as a 100 run-stopper specialist for the WILB slot, and he only wants $8m/yr, thankfully. B Thomas is mad about playing time, but we'll sign him and presumably start him at WLB going forward. Givens is a 253 lb pass rusher who fills in at DE, doesn't play conventional LB at all. Thill is fine, but boring big rating in man coverage which, I assume, carries some trifle of value, but not like zone.

A free agent addition here, or even early draft pick, could liven things up, but we're okay - have enough talent to just trot out these guys for the next four years and have cohesion be their calling card.
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Old 06-27-2020, 12:33 PM   #1074
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Lentzner, Kody 1538LCB 8 70 70 3 yrs. Maas, Josue 1524LCB 8 69 69 2 yrs. Bernardino, Shaun 1507RCB 6 67 67 3 yrs. Calmus, Collin 1539RCB 7 50 50 2 yrs. Wiggins, Les 1526RCB 4 49 49 2 yrs. Burroughs, Darrell 1537RCB 2 31 38 3 yrs. Patterson, Mitchell 1536RCB 4 25 30 1 yr. McCormick, Kendrick 1633SS 8 45 45 --- Padilla, Dustin 1625FS 5 42 42 2 yrs. Conners, Jake 1629FS 7 39 39 2 yrs.

Masterpiece. Oh, so happy. Calmus is the only guy in the whole lot who doesn't register as an Exceptional Affinity, he's merely Strong. And let's look at the in-game PD% numbers (80 or better very good) from last season as a quick look at effectiveness (all this on a team with no serious pass rush): Lentzner 84.7, Maas 80.9, Calmus 83.1, Bernardino 84.9, McCormick 79.2, Padilla 78.6... and then Burroughs 78.4 and Wiggins 74.9.

Burroughs won't get back in for major playing time, that was an affinity lock-in for or long term KR and gunner. Wiggins is troubling, but had we known we'd build this empire through free agency, I wouldn't have selected a CB with a late first there anyhow. Regardless, this is by far the team's best unit, and for the next three or four seasons should be the power moving the vessel forward, believe it or not. Marvelous.

Code:
Player # Pos Start Exp Current Estimate Future Estimate Tamburrino, Toby 669 LS 10 17 17 --- $$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive, ** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR. Players Under Contract: 43 Inactive: 0 On Active Roster: 43 Salary Cap: $699,500,000 Cap Room: $105,980,000 Maximum for New Player: $76,050,000 Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $8,190,000 Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $0 Cap Room Required Next Year: $429,350,000

"Only" $100m in cap space, a bit less than usual, and that means not much to make a huge FA splash - so if there were a QB, we'd be hard pressed to get in there and outbid people.

Expect more of the same, I fear. We have a number of our own free agents (restricted or otherwise) who will command 2x minsal deals, or thereabouts... so that $100m will drop to more like $50m to play with. In this league, that's one good player. QB Levine is sitting on a $43m all-salary contract, so he's a possible part of cap-loosening, if I had a Plan B, or concluded this wasn't a go-for-it year after all and wanted to go with a rookie or Evan Justin.

Prospects: Unexciting
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Old 06-27-2020, 04:21 PM   #1075
QuikSand
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Location: Annapolis, Md
Ravens file is in. We have a few FA targets beyond our own roster, but it's a narrower file than we often have at this point. I do not expect fireworks this offseason, unless we decide to engineer a trade.

We have pick 17, so no obvious chance to make a big move there. likely just let it come to us, I have BPA style choices among whom we ought to be able to choose mid-round.
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Old 06-27-2020, 04:42 PM   #1076
QuikSand
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DC BUREAU

Okay, first things first. We won it. That doesn't mean the team is "there." I'm still in build-it-up mode. We won a weak division, and may do so again, but without help this team is not really a top tier player. Tough to say, but if I want to maintain a season was successful when we go 13-3 and then peter out in the postseason, then I have to accept this flip side. We're doing okay, but are not where we want to be.

That said... we're in okay shape. 39 players signed, $146m in cap space (and more potentially looming), and a decent core of young good fit players who are locked in. So, we have work to do, but we are not starting from a teardown.

I'll skip the full rundown, but will offer a quick analysis by function:

For reference: Stats | Roster

-QB locked in with Clancy, he's solid, will add a chem guy behind him

-Running game will be chem goldmine, but need to settle on leader and whether we want to keep using WR Bouchette as a primary carrier (maybe)

-Receiver is good, with Damon Malone a legit WR1, and we have a useful cadre behind him: Bouchette is generalist, soph Roach too, Robbins is ok and returns punts. No urgent need to add targets here, but if we want Bouchette as a full time WR2, we need to pull him from the RB slot.

-OL is in pretty good shape, with C Fitz and my starting tackles all plus-value contributors, with soph T Lyons ready to get in there this year (likely at LG). Chem is okay, not great, we'll look there but I don't think there's an easy fix-it in the works.

-Pass rush isn't great, DE Singleton is my non-affinity holdover for talent, but slid to half his sack total. We'll really look to improve there, we literally don't have a "third guy" who can rush the passer on this roster, after 12th year DE Van Horn retired after getting his ring.

-Run D is okay. LB Patton is a run eater, posts 122 tackles and hold it all down. Defense was awful by the numbers, but talent wise I don't feel bad, especially at LB. And I don't honestly care much.

-Secondary needs to gel. We slowed down the Chiefs, but below the surface, I see: a CB2, a depth CB, and project young CB/S and a legit FS. That's a couple bodies short of a full complement. We should be able to address it, but it's genuinely a priority, despite the weird success.

More on the big chem question later.
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Old 06-28-2020, 05:15 AM   #1077
QuikSand
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Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU

So, on chemistry, here's the thing...

Code:
Shehee, Ellis 1196LDE Mild Affinity Singleton, J.R. 1195RDE Godfrey, Gustavo 1194RDE Dodge, Ernie 1292NT Mild Affinity Pascal, Roderick 1290NT Jones, Jumbo 1357SILB Affinity Thomas, Donny 1351WILB Mild Affinity Antonick, A.J. 1355WILB Patton, Isaiah 1405SLB Defensive Front Drain, Luke 1446SLB Affinity O'Neill, Ronald 1454SLB Mild Affinity Walsh, Manuel 1443WLB Affinity Frick, Gerald 1450WLB Affinity Kim, Jimmy 1459WLB Affinity Riffle, Marcos 1456WLB Dominguez, Amir 1453WLB Sinclair, Alan 1449WLB

There's our current snapshot, including a number of guys who may or may not make the roster this year. Focus on the chemistry column. It's not up to my standards.

Now, if I release LB Patton - my uber-tackler but irreplaceable chem leader with his mere 57 personality, and that's all... then the leadership role falls to my best DL, R Pascal. And with him as the leader...

Code:
Shehee, Ellis 1196LDE Strong Affinity Singleton, J.R. 1195RDE Godfrey, Gustavo 1194RDE Potential Affini Dodge, Ernie 1292NT Strong Affinity Pascal, Roderick 1290NT Defensive Front Jones, Jumbo 1357SILB Exceptional Affi Thomas, Donny 1351WILB Strong Affinity Antonick, A.J. 1355WILB Mild Affinity Drain, Luke 1446SLB Exceptional Affi O'Neill, Ronald 1454SLB Strong Affinity Walsh, Manuel 1443WLB Exceptional Affi Frick, Gerald 1450WLB Exceptional Affi Kim, Jimmy 1459WLB Strong Affinity Riffle, Marcos 1456WLB Mild Affinity Dominguez, Amir 1453WLB Sinclair, Alan 1449WLB Mild Affinity


So...if you have been reading this thread, you see where this is going. Trading or releasing Patton seems dumb, he's very very good. But for macro purposes...it absolutely has to be on the table. Turns out he has a $57m base salary this year, too, so... there's an "opportunity cost" argument with him, as well.

Not 100% sold on doing this, but I'm... maybe... 70% sold.
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:44 PM   #1078
QuikSand
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Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU

Follow up on chemistry... trade block posted. Trying to make this guy alluring, I know it's a big cap hit.


http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showt...8729#post58729

Hoping the graphic will help...



yikes don't know how to resize that image, ugh

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-28-2020 at 08:49 PM.
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Old 06-29-2020, 11:19 AM   #1079
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Baltimore early free agency...nothing to see here. We're in the mix for a number of players, with some more meaningful decisions around the bend, but nothing yet. Renegs underway, I'll spare you.
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Old 06-29-2020, 01:06 PM   #1080
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Ravens make a move up from 1.17 to 1.12 (costs us our 3rd and 6th) to get a good fit DL... not a massive pass rusher, yet again, but looks pretty good to me:



Baltimore: QuikSand takes DT Aidan Denby with the 1.12 pick.

Run Defense67<->96
Pass Rush Technique53<->81
Pass Rush Strength72<->100
Man-to-Man Defense29<->57
Zone Defense36<->64
Bump-and-Run Defense27<->56
Play Diagnosis69<->98
Punishing Hitter0<->28
Endurance68<->97
Special Teams39<->67

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
73
305
6.6
7.1
4.98
23
36
7.43
113
-
53

He's probably a natural 3-4 DE, strong guy and ought to be solid against the run right away. Given my long term track record with later draft picks anyway, this seems wise. Go get our guy.
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Old 06-29-2020, 01:55 PM   #1081
Chas in Cinti
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Location: Cincinnati, OH
Agreed, if you can get an impact guy early, move up with your restrictions...
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Old 06-30-2020, 03:37 AM   #1082
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU

More interesting news with the DCU, actually. Two impact free agent transactions, and a draft pick at the back of round one:


SE Kai Dawkins
FA Stage 3
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Oakland: 3yrs, $30,000,000.


RB Vincent Trotter
FA Stage 3
signed as an unrestricted free agent from San Francisco: 3yrs, $108,000,000.


So, RB Trotter steps right into the heavy duty RB1 slot, and that presumably resolves our dilemma with "too few guys to get the ball." He's not perfect, but he's better than the riffraff we have on hand at the true RB position.

WR Dawkins might not seem like much, but he should be a stabilizing influence...sorta like trading for a pitcher as part of a playoff run in baseball. He just steps in as our WR3, he's a professional... great hands, great courage, and a great affinity. I like this signing a lot.

And then when our pick rolls around at 1.32:




Washington: KickStand takes WR William Everhart with the 1.32 pick.

Avoid Drops34<->62
Getting Downfield47<->76
Route Running51<->80
Third Down Catching7<->36
Big-Play Receiving70<->99
Courage62<->91
Adjust to Ball38<->66
Punt Returning0<->29
Kick Returning0<->29
Endurance59<->87
Special Teams71<->100

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
74
205
5.2
5.4
4.30
26
16
6.96
111
52
23


Not sure why he fell to us, I didn't expect him to, but we'll take a five-mark combine receiver with that bar pattern. He should be a useful downfield threat, I'd think.
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Old 06-30-2020, 09:45 AM   #1083
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Well, free agent moves in Baltimore... two of them, both for big money, semi-unexpectedly.


RDE Juan Helming
FA Stage 5
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Oakland: 4yrs, $116,000,000.


SLB Tyrus Sorota
FA Stage 5
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Detroit: 4yrs, $150,000,000.


Re-upping with Helming is fine, I just wish I had had the presence of mind to clear the cap space last season to keep him around, so he'd be a cohesion boost rather than liability after his gap year.


LB Sorota is a do-it-all guy, likely to slot at SILB or SLB, for years to come. LB isn't the way you win, but "good players" is, and he is one.


We will be cap crunched now, but these were top targets, if they hadn't come in the same stage, I might have only pursued one, but here we go.
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:37 AM   #1084
QuikSand
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Location: Annapolis, Md
...am trying to cap-manage here in Baltimore, but it's going to be tough to keep QB Levin aboard with his $42m salary. Getting both free agent defenders might cost us our "go for it" mentality this year, ugh.
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Old 06-30-2020, 02:19 PM   #1085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
...am trying to cap-manage here in Baltimore, but it's going to be tough to keep QB Levin aboard with his $42m salary. Getting both free agent defenders might cost us our "go for it" mentality this year, ugh.

Have made a few other cuts, and now Levine looks semi-safe. I don't have any more big splashes planned, and we'll be pinching pennies. But I think he comes back, and our D7 ought to be in better shape this year - viz to come on that.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:33 PM   #1086
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
So, the combination of trades that ended up moving us from mid-2nd to late-2nd in this draft costs us our round two target, a spec QB taken by Squirrel and his Titans (no image available for some reason)...

However, in the late 2nd, I threw caution to the wind, and decided to go ahead and take the "more interesting" guy for this team:



Baltimore: QuikSand takes P Reggie Moore with the 2.31 pick.

Punting Power
71<->99
Hang Time72<->100
Directional Punting72<->100
Kick Holding61<->90

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
74
209
7.9
4.2
4.77
28
23
7.63
112
-
71


I'm not sure it's the "max value" play overall, but on a team where I'm trying to manicure the special teams pretty aggressively, and have decided (against type) that it's worth paying a top-tier kicker...well, let's pair him with an ace punter, amirite?
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:35 PM   #1087
QuikSand
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Location: Annapolis, Md
Honestly, the guy I had as my BPA for late 2nd here was an unexciting, low-impact position where I typically have no trouble picking up capable fill-ins. He could even slide to our next selection in the 4th. So, no major loss here, I don't think. Let's toss out a (hopefully) 85/85 punter for a while.
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Old 07-01-2020, 05:27 AM   #1088
QuikSand
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Location: Annapolis, Md
potential twist ahead in BAL draft, stay tuned...
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Old 07-01-2020, 05:32 AM   #1089
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU

End of 2nd round, we manage to overcome our clear skill position bias, and grab a guy at a need position, edge rusher (naturally a guy hidden at the DT position, but weight says the true story):




Washington: KickStand takes DT Timothy Jacobs with the 2.32 pick.

Run Defense24<->54
Pass Rush Technique64<->94
Pass Rush Strength2<->32
Man-to-Man Defense22<->52
Zone Defense3<->34
Bump-and-Run Defense7<->37
Play Diagnosis27<->57
Punishing Hitter69<->99
Endurance48<->78
Special Teams60<->90

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
70
292
5.0
5.4
4.95
33
28
7.83
115
-
57



I generally like what I see here... with a max PRTech rating I would be really excited, but even without it I think the chances of him developing rapidly into one of those one-trick 80+ PRT guys who's not a total loss elsewhere is high. And on this team, that is something we really need, especially as I contemplate whether to pay big money to DE Singleton, a non-affinity guy.


I'll set the over/under for QB Sacks in a DC uniform at... 20 1/2.
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Old 07-01-2020, 10:10 AM   #1090
QuikSand
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Location: Annapolis, Md
Doing the Ravens file now. That contract with DE Juan Helming is going to hurt us, it was (in retrospect) unwise and unaffordable. I would hate to cap out QB Levine, but doing so would save us $25m this year and either doing that or releasing him will almost certainly be necessary.

A competing team SHOULD face cap challenges, don't get me wrong. It's just my poor planning that got me into this precise spot.
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Old 07-02-2020, 08:34 AM   #1091
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Ravens miss out on an OL re-signing... and with him goes the unspoken notion that we might be okay if we released T Shepherd.

LS Toby Tamburrino
FA Stage 8
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent


WLB George Kuklick
FA Stage 8
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Atlanta: 2yrs, $13,400,000.


LT Arnold Odom
FA Stage 8
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $36,000,000.


SS Kendrick McCormick
FA Stage 9
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent


WLB Dana Givens
FA Stage 9
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent


SILB Anthony Gardner
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 3yrs, $23,400,000.


QB Phil Cress
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,640,000.


We did add an OLB edge rusher in Kuklick, who has never been allowed to just focus on that. He, Givens, and new signing LB Gardner should be our 3rd down rotation at DE. Since we have built the D-line around run-stoppers, we need to make careful cap use with our pass rushers. This cat Gardner, in particular, hopefully can be a big part of that - basically benched by his initial team, they just let him walk, and we won a minor bidding war to get him aboard here.
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Old 07-02-2020, 08:41 AM   #1092
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
After that stage, BAL is up to 54 players, with 6 draft picks coming in, and one RFA (LB Burt Thomas) I really want to sign. We're right up against the cal, so this won't be simple.


Also aware that LB Michl, on an under-market contract with us, could hold out - and we'd simply need to cut him if he does.


I don't blame the LB Sorota deal, I blame the DE Helming deal, I should not have done that.
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Old 07-02-2020, 09:14 AM   #1093
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU


Well, after LB Patton turns out to be un-tradeable, I release him, as more or less advertised. The follow-through on the plan is that his roles will be assumed in multiple ways:


top-talent at LB now:
new signee Landon Shedd
recent signee Mercury Jefferson


...and soon-to-be-crowned chemistry king:
Jimmy Cannida


Here's a look at the roster... the D7 group will be nearly all purple now, save DE Singleton, living up to his name as the last non-aligned guy in the group. Should be a very tight knit bunch. No single guy as talented as Patton, but we are now deep with decent players (through all means), where the inherited roster was pretty barren.

Last edited by QuikSand : 07-02-2020 at 09:15 AM.
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Old 07-02-2020, 09:24 AM   #1094
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
DC BUREAU

So, as the United prepare to exit the early free agency and draft, we have 51 players signed, 4-7 draft picks incoming (depending on a possible trade), and a fairly complete roster, at least for a no-injury league.

Major roster needs:
-one more legitimate DL/edge
-a more serious TE receiving threat
(big gap)
-DB depth
-more ST aces

This is very workable for this stage in a takeover. I'm actually pretty content at WR, which is semi-unusual, but we inherited one WR1 and I fashioned a WR2 out of the RB clay. A couple draft picks and one perfect FA fit, and I feel like we're five deep, which is fine.
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Old 07-02-2020, 10:04 AM   #1095
Chas in Cinti
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Location: Cincinnati, OH
Projecting both teams to the playoffs? Waiting until after camp to make that projection?
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Old 07-03-2020, 12:03 AM   #1096
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chas in Cinti View Post
Projecting both teams to the playoffs? Waiting until after camp to make that projection?

Need to see a bit more, but I think BAL feels ready to step forward. If the gains in the passing game last year with the rookies were real, then we should build on that and become a plus unit there. I think the personnel along the D7 is better, for certain. So, if things stay on course, perhaps this is a 10-win team, more or less.

DC, who knows, but probably another inch forward from last year's regular season, and they also gather 10 wins? Would adding a legit RB and a few other spare parts offset the talent/cohesion loss on defense?
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Old 07-03-2020, 08:08 AM   #1097
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Okay...early FA wraps. Reveal stage, also holdouts if we have them...

...and, nothing. No holdouts (yay on LB Michl), and no news of that sort.

Quick draft rundown, based on sneak peek:
DL Denby looks solid, not overwhelming, maybe 50 PRTech good
P Moore looks like a stud, he'd damned well better be (jersey #2, perfect)
WR Bensen looks like a throwaway, few bars in right places but meh
RB Ogbogu w/limited good bars, but HR 69, BS 68 hmmmm (maybe WR?)
DL Perry, Crawford fringe players in thin DL group

BenBot assigns our draft a ranking of #25. Fair enough. Not our strong suit.
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Old 07-03-2020, 08:21 AM   #1098
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
RB Ogbogu might be the most intriguing guy from this draft, compounded by his high personality rating - giving him a real chance to stick around as a long term asset.

His draft thread summary is sufficient to discuss him here:




Baltimore: QuikSand takes RB B.J. Ogbogu with the 4.31 pick.

Breakaway Speed61<->90
Power Inside33<->62
Third Down Running11<->40
Hole Recognition71<->100
Elusiveness0<->29
Speed to Outside0<->29
Blitz Pickup15<->44
Avoid Drops0<->29
Getting Downfield58<->87
Route Running31<->60
Third Down Catching71<->100
Punt Returning0<->29
Kick Returning0<->29
Endurance19<->48
Special Teams23<->52

HT
WT
RAW
ADJ
DASH
SOL
BENCH
AGI
BRJU
POS
%DEV
70
206
4.8
5.1
4.53
26
14
7.39
112
17
46


My scout sees his ratings pretty much fulfilling the patterns you see above. The maxed-out ratings for HR and 3DC no longer look maxed out, however... so no pure 100s here, if you're joining me on that particular grassy knoll.


What I see is a guy who, if endurance worked the way that a "reasonable person" would expect it to work, might make a really nice change-of-pace RB. If we think HR and BS are the two key ratings for running with the ball, he's solid there. And he's got some complementary skills for the passing game. No endurance to speak of, so rather than a 20-touch guy, here's a nice 8-touch guy... which would have some value, all told.

As you may know, I'm not sold on FOF endurance, especially for RB, holding up to any logical scrutiny. So, that has me wondering what's what.


I will note that he's low-weight enough to entertain a diet regimen, followed by a switch to play WR. Doesn't look like he'd generate much in over-the-middle courage, but he's not an apparent void there. His chem group is ideal for either position, and he's no threat to claim leadership, so he is, right now, just an "asset."

- - -

Most likely scenario: leave him at RB, get him starts this year, lock in chem and see what happens with 60 touches over the rookie season. Next year we may have a pivot to make at RB with both Bush and Liverwurst in contract years, perhaps this guy is a part of that thinking. Could he be a future RB2?

Last edited by QuikSand : 07-03-2020 at 08:24 AM.
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Old 07-03-2020, 08:29 AM   #1099
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
Oh, I should note... my panic over cap space seems to have been ill-placed. We've got $10m in space now. There's somehting at work there, maybe when you're already over the 51 or 53 meaningful threshold of signed players, and the game misses the mark here. I need to understand that more clearly, to avoid doing something rash.


Nothing too moving out there in the 8th round. We're on 61 players, we'll take stabs, but I don't expect the needle to move much here.
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Old 07-03-2020, 08:31 AM   #1100
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Tiny side note... is there any chance there's something here?


QB Phil Cress
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