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Old 04-01-2015, 03:11 PM   #351
path12
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
Now I'm rethinking my strategy of a wolf on the back end of the EF vote. timmae's vote makes sense as defensive and cheekimonk hasn't said anything that strikes me as off.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:13 PM   #352
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I need to get a vote in within the hour. Not entirely sure where the value is right now.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:14 PM   #353
path12
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Just because I'd like to hear more from them:

VOTE VAIMES
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:19 PM   #354
Shoveler
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Central Minnesota
Day 2 Vote

cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
Grover [3] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310)
The Jackal [1] -Glengoyne {313)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (212)
Britrock88 [1] - Zinto (322)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)

Last edited by Shoveler : 04-01-2015 at 03:26 PM.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:21 PM   #355
The Jackal
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I saw Raven lurking before, curious to hear some input there. Vaimes too.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:24 PM   #356
Coffee Warlord
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Hey Autumn, you're missing a timmae vote for Grover in there. Last page.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:25 PM   #357
Zinto
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Well since Narcizo left and I thought that Grover was still voting for him but isn't I will....
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:25 PM   #358
Zinto
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Unvote Brit
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:25 PM   #359
Grover
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
Hey Autumn, you're missing a timmae vote for Grover in there. Last page.

Shh.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:27 PM   #360
Grover
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Not a huge deal, but I will be away from roughly 4:30 EST to 7:00 EST.

I'll be back then to make a final vote, read through, banter, etc etc
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:31 PM   #361
Coffee Warlord
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Originally Posted by Grover View Post
Shh.

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Old 04-01-2015, 03:37 PM   #362
Coffee Warlord
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I'd like to see a third candidate go up here.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:53 PM   #363
timmae
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Join Date: Jan 2004
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Not having a single cast vote from Raven is worrisome. Not sure why he wouldn't have been replaced by now if he hasn't been checking in. I haven't seen this type of play go so late into day 2 but some of the vets may have better takes on this than I.
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:53 PM   #364
Coffee Warlord
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Has he checked in at all?
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Old 04-01-2015, 03:58 PM   #365
Glengoyne
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
I'd like to see a third candidate go up here.


This is where I am now. I'm guessing, willing to risk rather, that Jackal isn't both Red and Black, but I'm not sure where to move the vote at this point.

I too will need to get a useful vote in in the next hour or hour and a half. I'm hoping to hear from some of the quieter folks in that time frame.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:01 PM   #366
Coffee Warlord
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And...since my availability becomes spotty until very close to deadline in about 30 minutes...

I still sort of feel Grover is a good candidate to lynch. That said, we can save that for later, maybe. We don't need a two horse race in day 2, and that's where we are headed. Thusly...I bring you Plan B.

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)

That's the ending tally yesterday. I'm throwing out the EF vote from yesterday - there's no way all the wolves piled onto one person. I like looking at the Also Rans, particularly on day 1.

If we take a very VERY liberal assumption that Jackal is good. We have one confirmed villager voting for Jackal in font.

We have one confirmed villager in EF voting for Timmae, and a guy I thus far feel okay about in Rum. Vaimes has been too idle to know anything about right now.

That brings me to Martin and Zinto. Neither of them have (in our whole 1 day of incredibly useful information!) made me feel remotely warm and fuzzy, but then, nobody really does. They're both in nicely easy places for a wolf to dump a day 1 vote. That said...

Vote MartinD
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:06 PM   #367
timmae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven View Post
fyi I am catching up now.
May be an hour before I know what's going on, but I am here.

This is Raven's only post... I am neutral on him right now but we need to hear more. Raven, please post your thoughts on the first 2 days when possible.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:15 PM   #368
timmae
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I'll be afk for a bit while I commute home... I'll be back on before lynch.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:19 PM   #369
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
Has he checked in at all?

He checked in earlier today. He's around. I think he's catching up, as I don't think he noticed the game start yesterday.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:20 PM   #370
Raven
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Baltimore, MD
Sorry guys, I checked on this every day last week and Sunday night, and it hadn't started yet. Of course the game starts on the day I don't check (yesterday), so I am a day behind. I've read all the posts and am caught up, but work has been extremely busy today, so I haven't been able to really put time into any analysis yet. I'll have some input shortly.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:25 PM   #371
Chief Rum
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I'm going to piggyback on CW's look at the secondary candidates, and some assumptions we often make about wolves splitting votes and what not, but instead of going with the timmae voters, I will look at The Jackal voters.

Besides, while I get CW's reasoning, I don't view the MartinD vote as a good one to start up, given he is like Narcizo (in Europe) and unlikely to be around until after the deadline.

So looking at The Jackal's Day 1 voters, font was a villager, which leaves Zinto as the possible "wolf" in that scenario. I don't get a bad vibe from Zinto, but I'm not really getting a bad vibe from hardly anyone, so that doesn't really matter.

VOTE ZINTO
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:27 PM   #372
Vaimes
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Sorry, project deadlines are approaching. You know how college life is.

Commencing catch-up.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:30 PM   #373
Shoveler
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Central Minnesota
Day 2 Vote

cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
Grover [3] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310)
The Jackal [1] - Glengoyne {313)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (212)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)
MartinD [1] - Coffee warlord (366)
Zinto [1] - Chief Rum (371)
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:39 PM   #374
Glengoyne
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Fresno, CA
UNVOTE Jackal


So I'm backing off of the Jackal because the reveal seems genuine, and I'm following CW's lead here

Vote MartinD
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:41 PM   #375
Glengoyne
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Location: Fresno, CA
Hey a lot can happen when you take 15 minutes to type a three line post.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:44 PM   #376
Raven
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Baltimore, MD
Just wanted to point out the voting changes once the voting got established...

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
EagleFan [4] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153)
Grover [3] - Zinto (106), path12 (147), cheekimonk (155)
The Jackal [2] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Zinto unvote Grover, vote The Jackal

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
EagleFan [4] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153)
The Jackal [3] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158), Zinto(160)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), cheekimonk (155)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

cheekimonk unvote Grover, Vote EagleFan

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk(163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
The Jackal [3] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158), Zinto(160)
Grover [1] - path12 (147)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Coffee Warlod unvote The Jackal, vote Grover

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk(163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
Grover [3] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170), Coffee Warlord
The Jackal [2] - EagleFan (158), Zinto(160)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

font unvote Timmae, Vote The Jackal
EagleFan unvote The Jackal, vote Timmae

Both font and EF were good, so their votes don't mean much here. But they simply swapped votes anyway, so the counts remained the same.

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)


9:00 on the nose
Zinto unvote Jackal vote timmae
This would have made it a tie. In some games it seems that posting on the nose counts, but in this game it does not. So Zinto's vote did not count.

Which would have made it ...
EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [5] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190), Zinto
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
The Jackal [1] - fontisian (182)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:45 PM   #377
britrock88
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Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Madison, WI
(Caught up to here, taxiing for takeoff. See you folks in a couple hours--if my phone battery holds out.)
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:53 PM   #378
Chief Rum
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Really uncomfortable with the MartinD run on so little.

Remember, he's not around until after the deadline. If he is going to be a candidate, I think we should wait until tomorrow when he can chime in and defend himself. I don't want to risk that he might have an important role and not be around to reveal to save himself.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:54 PM   #379
Chief Rum
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Well, just to clarify, all of our guesses have very little evidence to back them up. I'm just saying maybe we should consider people who will be around these last few hours if we're going to consider third candidates.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:55 PM   #380
Glengoyne
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Fresno, CA
And I'm out for a while as well. I've got folks coming over for boardgames today. So I'll be spotty through the end of the night. I'll check back between games.

Tomorrow will be bad as well, we're taking the kids on a train ride up to Sacramento. So It will be inconvenient all day.
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Old 04-01-2015, 04:56 PM   #381
Coffee Warlord
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Ah, I never remember that Martin isn't around in evenings.

With that in mind, I'd be okay with moving on Zinto as well.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:02 PM   #382
Coffee Warlord
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Location: Colorado Springs
Though, there he is!
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:11 PM   #383
Raven
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Baltimore, MD
Day 1 Vote

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
EagleFan [4] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153)
Grover [4] - Zinto (106), EagleFan (141), path12 (147), cheekimonk (155)
The Jackal [1] - Coffee Warlord (94)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Yet to Vote: Glengoyne, Raven

EagleFan unvote Grover, vote The Jackal "Going with a hunch here"
Chief points out that he is "putting himself in danger here". Which he is because he is pitting himself vs Timmae and undoing the 3 way tie.

Zinto unvote Grover, vote jackal says "he will follow EF's hunch"
Cheeki unvote Grover, vote EagleFan "I've heard this tune before"

Day 1 Vote

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
The Jackal [3] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158), Zinto (160)
Grover [1] - path12 (147)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Yet to Vote: Glengoyne, Raven

Coffee Warlord "Well, this ain't disturbing at all"
"Well, easy way to find out if that means anything. We got enough for a late run?"

Coffee Warlord Unvote Jackal, Vote Grover



I'm skeptical of Coffee Warlord at this point. Yesterday after Zinto and cheeki unvoted Grover and moved to someone else, he says "Well, easy way to find out if that means anything. We got enough for a late run?" and votes for Grover. Today he says "I still sort of feel Grover is a good candidate to lynch. That said, we can save that for later, maybe. We don't need a two horse race in day 2, and that's where we are headed. " and votes MartinD. Leaving things at...

cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
Grover [3] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310)
The Jackal [1] - Glengoyne {313)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (212)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)
MartinD [1] - Coffee warlord (366)

Anyone else find this odd?
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:14 PM   #384
Coffee Warlord
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I find it to be completely in line with my lines of thinking.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:16 PM   #385
Raven
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Baltimore, MD
Why? If you suspect him, why wait? What's the point?
You seem to be wasting your vote on MartinD when you already suspect Grover and Grover was at the time tied for the lead.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:20 PM   #386
Coffee Warlord
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Because I don't believe cementing a 2 horse race on Day 2 is a great idea. I figure it's better to try and get a 3rd person going and see what happens.

Yes, I stll think we get good info in killing Grover. But if we go that route, I'd rather it came with 2 other candidates, not just 1.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:21 PM   #387
Raven
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Location: Baltimore, MD
vote Grover
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:21 PM   #388
Vaimes
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Join Date: Mar 2015
So Jackal claims that he happens to be in the same clan/group-thing as the dead Seer, and everyone suddenly backs off. Hm.

A Seer typically doesn't get a N0 check, yes? I see people speculating about that but no one knowing for sure, though it sounds like you've played with the role before. So that's a thing.

I think cheekimonk is town, I can go back and find the post that pinged me if anyone wants to see it but right now I can't be bothered.

Unvote
Vote Grover
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:23 PM   #389
Raven
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Location: Baltimore, MD
btw, while I'm confused by CW's actions, if he is indeed protecting Grover then my vote for Grover is just as effective as voting for CW.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:29 PM   #390
Coffee Warlord
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Dance, puppets, dance!
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:31 PM   #391
Zinto
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Join Date: Jan 2011
I probably don't move off Grover if I am a wolf. What is the point? It is much easier to stay put and draw no attention to myself.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:31 PM   #392
cheekimonk
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Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Nashville
Quote:
Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
unvote Brit
Vote cheeki


Just as guilty of taking the easy route and hasn't explained like Brit did.

I made sure to explain all of my votes yesterday and have been analyzing the game since. If you mean today, I parked my vote this morning and have had meetings this afternoon, but I was very active analyzing the game this morning. I even claimed my faction for whatever that's worth. Maybe I'm misunderstanding "easy route"? Still feeling my way through this...
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:33 PM   #393
Zinto
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I am about to vote for Cheeki but I am going to reread his posts first. It is turning into a mini runaway on Grover and I don't see any reason for that to be the case
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:33 PM   #394
Shoveler
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Central Minnesota
Day 2 Vote

Grover [5] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310), Raven (387), Vaimes (388)
cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
MartinD [2] - Coffee warlord (366), Glengoyne (374)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)
Zinto [1] - Chief Rum (371)
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:35 PM   #395
Zinto
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Join Date: Jan 2011
It is closer than I thought it was. For some reason I thought Vaimes was on Cheeki before switching to Grover
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:43 PM   #396
Zinto
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Join Date: Jan 2011
Vote cheekimonk
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:44 PM   #397
Zinto
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Nothing about cheekimonk's posts swing me one way or another. I would rather make this close heading down the stretch and see where the chips fall.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:48 PM   #398
cheekimonk
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Well, I wasn't 100% sold on Grover but I'm blocked onto him now.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:51 PM   #399
Zinto
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Join Date: Jan 2011
For meta reasons Martin and Vaimes get a pass from me today. This is the first game I have played with them(their first games?) and as much as I would like to see more posts from both of them I am willing to give them today as they get into the swing of things.
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Old 04-01-2015, 05:53 PM   #400
timmae
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Location: Chicago
Quote:
Originally Posted by cheekimonk View Post
I made sure to explain all of my votes yesterday and have been analyzing the game since. If you mean today, I parked my vote this morning and have had meetings this afternoon, but I was very active analyzing the game this morning. I even claimed my faction for whatever that's worth. Maybe I'm misunderstanding "easy route"? Still feeling my way through this...

Cheeks... I missed this. What did you claim? Working off of smartphone at the moment.
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