14-15 NBA Playoffs Thread

[korme]

[korme]

Hawks in 4
Wizards in 6
Cavs in 4
Bulls in 5

Warriors in 4
Grizzlies in 5
Rockets in 7
Clippers in 7

[Groundhog]

Hawks in 4
Raptors in 6
Cavs in 5
Bulls in 5

Warriors in 5
Grizzlies in 5
Mavericks in 7
Spurs in 6

[Chief Rum]

I have very mixed emotions about Clippers versus Spurs.

I think Doc versus Pop will be a fun strategic back and forth, and the Clippers have enough talent to beat the Spurs. Statistically, these were the second and third best teams in the league based on score differential, if I read that right, and it is criminal they are playing in the first round.

That's the good part. The bad part? I have Spurs Inferiority Complex. I think the Clippers will come close to beating them, but those cagey Spurs will find a way to hold out in the end.

[The Jackal]

I was impressed by the Wiz in the early part of the season, but I don't know what to expect at this point. They might be able to beat Toronto but the Raptors played them pretty well this year.

[The Jackal]

Hawks in 4
Wizards in 7
Cavs in 4
Bulls in 7

Warriors in 5
Grizzilies in 6
Rockets in 6
Spurs in 7

[BishopMVP]

Hawks in 4
Raptors in 7
Celtics in 3
Bulls in 5

Warriors in 5
Grizzlies in 6
Rockets in 6
Spurs in 7

In all seriousness I'm hoping the Celtics win one and only get blown out once at most. Watching Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart guard LeBron at times will be fun, Brandon Bass and Evan Turner not do much.

[Brian Swartz]

I've requested the thread I started be closed. No good reason not to keep everything in one place, and korme outdid me in having a cool graphic .

In general, it sucks how many teams have major injuries. No OKC just feels wrong. A lot of the playoffs will be decided by who shows up. I think there are four teams that played at an elite level in general over the post-break period, which is generally a top consideration for me in who has a chance to win the title. I think the following are contenders in order of likelihood, everyone else is just there.

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. LA Clippers
4. Cleveland

**Note: my NBA predictions generally suck. It'll be interesting to reflect on how wrong I've been in a couple weeks when the first round is over.

Hawks - Nets

This could be a tougher series than most are expecting. I can't see the Hawks losing but it could be 6 just as easily as 4 IMO. Atlanta's various nagging injuries are a concern, and Brooklyn finished the season strong. Lopez could be a problem for Atlanta inside, and they could make it interesting.

Raptors-Wizards

Flip a freaking coin. Rozan's health is the big key IMO. Toronto was a better team than they should be I thought most of the year, and the opposite for Washington. I always root for the overachiever over the underachiever, so I'm hoping Toronto. Shocked if this doesn't go at least six, but neither team winning would surprise me.

Cavaliers-Celtics

Boston might win a game, but that's it. With Atlanta's issues I really think you might as well book Cleveland in the Finals, I was bullish on the Hawks until the recent injuries. The Celtics have done well to get here, but it's not a fair fight.

Bulls-Bucks

Might be the most interesting series in the East. Which Bulls show up? They've been generally underwhelming with flashes of brilliance. That could be problematic against a team playing excellent defense. Milwaukee has a chance, a small one, but a chance, of outgrinding the grinders, particularly if Rose isn't doing anything. Probably a 5 or 6-game win for Chicago in the end.




Warriors-Pelicans

Fascinating and fantastic to see the Brow in the playoffs! I think he gets New Orleans one game, but they aren't close to having the firepower to hang with the Warriors over the long haul. Golden State in five unless they are asleep, and a sweep isn't out of the question.

Blazers-Grizzlies

One of a couple flip-a-coin series. Portland's just had horrible injury luck this year, Memphis hasn't been great in that department and early in the year were much more focused, more crisp in execution than they've been anytime in the last month or so. They've had their own injury issues as well, they really need Tony Allen at full strength. I like Memphis in six but I think it could go either way, and in the grand scheme of things unless the Griz really get on fire, it won't matter who wins this matchup.

Rockets-Mavericks

Dwight Howard is the key here. This is a long series unless he's a major contributor. I think Dallas has too many malfunctions to win either way -- Rondo was a mistake IMO -- but if the Beard has to continue to do basically everything himself it could be difficult against one of the game's top strategists in Rick Carlisle. I think Houston wins in 5 or 6, but an upset isn't impossible.

Clippers-Spurs

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

have very mixed emotions about Clippers versus Spurs.

I think Doc versus Pop will be a fun strategic back and forth, and the Clippers have enough talent to beat the Spurs. Statistically, these were the second and third best teams in the league based on score differential, if I read that right, and it is criminal they are playing in the first round.

That's the good part. The bad part? I have Spurs Inferiority Complex. I think the Clippers will come close to beating them, but those cagey Spurs will find a way to hold out in the end.

This is interesting since I have very similar thoughts, though as a Spurs fan. They went 21-4 to end the year and moved up from 7th to 6th in the seedings. That's pretty much ridiculous .

The Clippers certainly are good enough to win this series, they are #3 on my list of 4 contenders so two of the top three playing in the first round? Yeah I'm not liking that either. In terms of net rating the Clippers are +6.8, Spurs +6.6 and nobody else save Golden State and Atlanta is better than +5. That holds up with the #2 and #3 best teams narrative. Beyond that, both were far better the last month or two than those marks would indicate. The Clippers struggled on defense early in the year but not recently, they're only 15th in the league on that end for the year but much better than that in reality. When you consider that they have the #2 net rating in the league with the force of nature known as Blake Griffin missing half the year -- yeah, that's just scary good.

One thing that's coming that I'm not looking forward to is the Hack-A-Jordan defense. LA is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency, just ahead of Golden State at 109.8. At his free-throw conversion rate this year(a scary 39.7%), that would fall to 79.4 on any possessions where they choose to foul him. If they put him on the line 25 times a game like the Spurs did with Josh Smith a little bit ago, that could effectively be a net gain of 3 or 4 points a game, more than enough to swing the series. The thing is I don't think LA has a good alternative because they need Jordan's defense on the floor.

I think ... think ... the Spurs win a long series. I'll be very surprised if it ends in less than six, and the Clippers could well win it, but I do think LA is more dependent on Paul/Griffin than San Antonio is on any one or two players. They'll probably try to limit Paul, putting the defensive force of nature known as the Klaw on him when needed, and bet that Griffin can't put up 40 on them four times, while San Antonio has more options with their bench. I think that's enough, but it might not be. As mentioned, Rivers is one of the few who can match Pop.

Should be an exciting playoffs this year!

[nol]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

One thing that's coming that I'm not looking forward to is the Hack-A-Jordan defense. LA is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency, just ahead of Golden State at 109.8. At his free-throw conversion rate this year(a scary 39.7%), that would fall to 79.4 on any possessions where they choose to foul him. If they put him on the line 25 times a game like the Spurs did with Josh Smith a little bit ago, that could effectively be a net gain of 3 or 4 points a game, more than enough to swing the series. The thing is I don't think LA has a good alternative because they need Jordan's defense on the floor.

There's a lot more that goes into the net gain of Hack-A-____ than the average amount of points two free throws yields. This 3-4 net points thing seems to be coming from some math along the lines of "If the Clippers run their normal offense for 10 possessions, they'd score around 11 points, but if DeAndre Jordan shoots 20 free throws he'd score 8 points."

For that to result in a net gain of 3-4 points, you'd have to assume:

* The Spurs' playoff defense is no more formidable than a league-average regular season defense - otherwise there's even less to gain. This can be mitigated somewhat by saying that the Clippers would be expected to be executing better on offense or giving fewer minutes to bench players, but on balance teams tend to experience a dip in offensive efficiency in the playoffs
* The Clippers will never get an offensive rebound off a missed free throw - a single put-pack almost completely nullifies that initial edge
* The Spurs will not sacrifice any of their own offensive efficiency despite essentially forfeiting any opportunities to attack a defense that isn't set - San Antonio scored about 102/100 possessions off a made basket, 109 off a defensive rebound (and it's reasonable to assume that a missed free throw provides less of a transition opportunity than a missed jump shot), and 112 off a turnover during the regular season
* None of the Spurs' key players get into foul trouble while executing the strategy
* The Spurs don't give up any extra points by fouling other players on the Clippers while in the bonus - if J.J. Redick draws some loose ball foul, that's a net gain of 0.9 points without having to run any offense.

I watched that Spurs-Rockets game and hacking Smith was a wash at best if I remember correctly. Looking at the play-by-play, Smith first went to the line when it was 64-64 and came out with the Rockets leading 73-72 (he was 3-10 from the line during that stretch). He got subbed out with 1:35 left in the 3rd, and the Spurs went on an 8-2 spurt to end the quarter thanks to 2 Patty Mills 3s. The next time Josh gets hacked, Houston's down 89-86 with 7:53 left. He goes 9-16 and is subbed out with 3:43 remaining in a 98-98 game. So Josh Smith was -7 in about 9 1st half minutes and +5 over 26 free throws' worth of hack-a-Josh in about 12 2nd half minutes. Anything metagame-related like taking opposing players out of a rhythm or buying more time for your own players to rest almost certainly affects the other side the same amount.

[Brian Swartz]

Yeah I was going for a crude comparison there, your points are good and the psychological effect also impacts on the rhythm of the game. I'm not sure how much Popovich will go to it but I'll be shocked if it doesn't happen. I think Jordan is pretty much the perfect player to use it on because of his struggles at the line and his value otherwhise.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Yeah I was going for a crude comparison there, your points are good and the psychological effect also impacts on the rhythm of the game. I'm not sure how much Popovich will go to it but I'll be shocked if it doesn't happen. I think Jordan is pretty much the perfect player to use it on because of his struggles at the line and his value otherwhise.

I feel that the overall negative of replacing Jordan with a Big Baby or Hawes on defense and on the boards is much more negative than the negative of having to play through a Hack-a-DJ strategy. So I think the CLips will play through it.

Keep in mind, the Spurs employed that very strategy against the Clips in a home game right after the All Star break and the Clips won that one going away.

[BishopMVP]

Rockets-Mavs is going to be really intriguing. I agree with Brian that the Rondo trade was probably a mistake because it hurt their spacing (especially because Brandan Wright was worth more to them than the Celtics), but Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league and it was pointed out today in a Mark Cuban interview that Rondo's only had 5 or 6 practices since joining the team. So he'll get to double that this week alone.

[korme]

Cosmetic note: That Wizards logo you see up top, is now the new Wizards primary logo. Effective with the start of the playoffs. Typically don't see that move during a season!

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by korme

Keep in mind, the Spurs employed that very strategy against the Clips in a home game right after the All Star break and the Clips won that one going away.

I think you might have the two Clippers wins confused here. The game they won easily was before the All-Star break, the one afterwards at LA they won by four(impressively, since there was no Griffin).

Regardless either way I really don't think it's much of an indicator. Both teams are playing much better than they were then, both are basically healthy, and regular season H2H is not a great predictor of who will win a series IMO. I've seen too many series where the regular season results were turned on their head by a specific approach taken by one team or another that helped/hurt them, or a player that gets hot for a week or two(this could particularly help LA if it happens here).

[Neon_Chaos]

If a seven-game series against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans turn out to be the GSW's kryptonite, it's going to be insane.

[nol]

Warriors 5
Grizzlies 7
Rockets 7
Spurs 7 (just a hedge against hopefully being able to watch multiple playoff rounds at Staples)

Hawks 5
Raptors 7
Cavs 5
Bulls 5

[CU Tiger]

Just for the sake of WTH

Round 1
Hawks - 6
Wizards - 5
Cavs - 5
Bulls - 5

Warriors - 5
Grizzlies - 6
Rockets - 6
Spurs - 5


Round 2
Hawks - 5
Cavs - 6

Warriors 6
Spurs 5

Conference Finals
Cavs - 5
Spurs - 7

Finals
Spurs - 5
Spurs remain LeBron's nemesis

[stevew]

R1
wiz(5)
Hawks(4)
Cavs(6)
Bulls(5)

Pelicans(7)
Griz(5)
Mavs(7)
Spurs(4)


Wiz(5)
Cavs(6)

Griz(7)
Mavs(5)

Cavs(5)
Griz(6)

Cavs 5

[nol]

This Wizards 4th quarter offense is why I wasn't feeling too antsy about switching my pick from the Raptors earlier on.

[Groundhog]

Horrid start for the Mavs. Looking like they've never played a playoff game before.

[miami_fan]

I never thought I'd see a NBA world where Chandler Parsons is booed every time he touches the ball in a playoff game.

[stevew]

Cavs handle a scrappy Boston squad. They will have a nice team if Smart is able to elevate his game and if Kelly Olynyk stops gluing his pubes to his face with paste

[Groundhog]

Smart kinda reminds me of a young Tony Allen that can hit the 3.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think you might have the two Clippers wins confused here. The game they won easily was before the All-Star break, the one afterwards at LA they won by four(impressively, since there was no Griffin).

Regardless either way I really don't think it's much of an indicator. Both teams are playing much better than they were then, both are basically healthy, and regular season H2H is not a great predictor of who will win a series IMO. I've seen too many series where the regular season results were turned on their head by a specific approach taken by one team or another that helped/hurt them, or a player that gets hot for a week or two(this could particularly help LA if it happens here).

No confusion. I was in the lower bowl for that game after the All Star break, about 14 rows back from the Spurs bench.

The final score was not indicative of the fact the Clippers were simply not going to lose that game. My rabid Spurs fan friend whom I went with agreed.

[Brian Swartz]

We clearly have a difference of opinion on what it means to 'win going away'. I didn't see the game, but virtually anytime you win by four you have a significant chance of losing, especially when you are down at the half and it's a one-point game with a minute and a half to go.

Regardless of that, congratulations on a convincing Game 1 win.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I didn't see the game, but virtually anytime you win by four you have a significant chance of losing,

Key point of that being "virtually". Golden State - New Orleans was 103-99 with 9.7 left... but the result of the game was never in doubt. GS was up by 25 mid-3rd quarter.

[Vince, Pt. II]

The Pelicans came to play tonight. Warriors looking sluggish and awful right now, and it doesn't help that Steph is the only one with any semblance of offense at the moment.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

The Pelicans came to play tonight. Warriors looking sluggish and awful right now, and it doesn't help that Steph is the only one with any semblance of offense at the moment.

I'm sure I'm partly transposing a narrative on this, but it does feel like Anthony Davis is becoming more assertive in front of our eyes, but just running into a better team.

Although, it is nice to see that Eric Gordon's alive.

[Neon_Chaos]

There is no reason for Davis to be standing around and watching Tyreke Evans or Norris Cole dance their way against 2 or 3 Warriors with 5 minutes left in the game.

Give the big man the ball, live and die with his decisions.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

There is no reason for Davis to be standing around and watching Tyreke Evans or Norris Cole dance their way against 2 or 3 Warriors with 5 minutes left in the game.

Give the big man the ball, live and die with his decisions.

+1

I'm not complaining though.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

There is no reason for Davis to be standing around and watching Tyreke Evans or Norris Cole dance their way against 2 or 3 Warriors with 5 minutes left in the game.

Give the big man the ball, live and die with his decisions.

I think that decision was made less by the coaching staff and more by Davis being too worn out. At around the 4 minute mark, he had two straight ugly possessions where he couldn't get all the way to the rim and missed some mid-range floaters. Not even Westbrook or Kobe in his heyday is going to be able to take 10 straight shots down the stretch when a defense as good as Golden State knows it's coming.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by stevew

Cavs handle a scrappy Boston squad. They will have a nice team if Smart is able to elevate his game and if Kelly Olynyk stops gluing his pubes to his face with paste

The Celtics create a lot of open looks. They just need some better shooters take the shots.

[Sublime 2]

Celtics hung tough. Irving and James just shut the door completely.

And as Desnudo said, not good enough shooters/scorers (other than Thomas) for the C's.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't get how you fire Scott Brooks after this year. A year or two ago it would have made more sense. How many teams would have had a winning record with their injuries this year?

[nol]

Scott Brooks - fired. Not sure what shortcomings he could have displayed this year that were cause for firing him now as opposed to a couple years ago.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I've heard rumors they want Billy Donovan.

I agree though, seems silly to fire him now. Reminds me of the Kings dumping Malone.

[albionmoonlight]

Happy with the Pels effort. Happy to see Davis getting playoff chops. Warriors just the best team in the league right now. Would like to see the Pelicans pull out one win just to avoid the sweep.

I also think that if the FO has the balls to go for a new coach, there would be a line of highly qualified guys ready to coach Davis.

[korme]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't get how you fire Scott Brooks after this year. A year or two ago it would have made more sense. How many teams would have had a winning record with their injuries this year?

I think it was just time to move on.

[nol]

There has to be someone (maybe Kevin Ollie) lined up because it's not like Brooks would've been fired if Durant was adamantly opposed to the idea.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by nol

There has to be someone (maybe Kevin Ollie) lined up because it's not like Brooks would've been fired if Durant was adamantly opposed to the idea.

Exactly what I'm thinking. Can't imagine Durant wasn't consulted first, and probably Westbrook as well.

Brooks has been a good coach and is excellent at handling players and personalities. The team just now needs more of tactician to take them to the next level, I think.

[nilodor]

Man it has been tough watching the Raptors-Wizards series. TRoss is just getting roasted on back cuts, guys getting beat off the dribble, no one wanting to rebound. It has been really frustrating to watch. I'm not sure if it's the system, the coach or the players but they really seem to be squeezing to hard, not really playing in the system and then when they do, forgetting what they should be doing.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by korme

I think it was just time to move on.

This.

At some point, Durant and Westbrook will begin asking questions about game strategy.

[Brian Swartz]

I can buy that, but how was it NOT time to move on a year or two ago but it is now? I think it's far more likely that the next coach they get is worse not better. Unless they can get someone really good, this is first really big mistake I've ever seen Presti make.

[stevew]

Harden?

[Brian Swartz]

I know it's popular to label that a mistake, but I don't think it necessarily was. I think they chose that he was going to leave anyway, might as well get something for him in return. Harden knew he could get max money somewhere, and the Thunder already had Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka on long-term deals.

[Groundhog]

It's no big deal if a coach isn't a big X's and O's guy - there's a lot of great assistant coaches in the league who excel there. A coach can be a guy who manages the personalities and gets the best out of his guys, he can be a guy who draws up the plays, or he can be both.

It takes a good coach, though, to defer to his assistants in the areas he's weakest, and as far as I can see that has to have been Brooks failing. There were far too many head-scratching moments over the years.

[korme]

Thank the Basketball Gods for Spurs/Clippers.

[Simbo Klice]

Spurs-Clippers has been pretty ugly, and along with the resurgence of D12 I actually have hope for my Rocks in the 2nd round.

[Neon_Chaos]

This game 2 between spurs and clips has been pretty awesome.

Griffin with 3 crucial turnovers. Ouch.

[Vince, Pt. II]

DeAndre Jordan...6/17 on free throws when you lose by 4 in OT is brutal.