2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by lungs

Cautiously optimistic on WI. 169,000 Milwaukee mail in votes not yet counted.

Does the NYT not have the needle for the midwestern states or am I looking in the wrong place? PA is probably gone but I'm also cautiously optimistic about the rest - they were always going to be blue then red on election night, but there are a lot more blue votes out there considering they are somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 uncounted so far.

The real wildcard is how many of those remaining votes actually get counted, and that's where the battle in the courts will start tomorrow. But as I see it barring shenanigans I think you'd give Biden the edge, and if he does pull out GA (and I guess that's the same question about whether all those Atlanta votes end up actually counting once it's been through the courts) then it really starts to look good for him

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by lungs

Cautiously optimistic on WI. 169,000 Milwaukee mail in votes not yet counted.

Looking at AP, Trump is up by 117,000 with 90% in. Seems like a little more than 300,000 left. That’s like Biden needs 70% left. Doable, but yikes.

[larrymcg421]

Biden surging on PredictIt right now.

[bhlloy]

Just hypothetical but if you are McConnell (or maybe pick another non-Trumper R) are you half hoping that Biden gets the presidency now that the senate is off the table and he's going to inherit COVID, a tanking economy and you'll still be able to hamper him doing much about it?

[molson]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Nice gem I found from the 2008 election night:

That explains a lot

[stevew]

oh god this press conference already.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Does the NYT not have the needle for the midwestern states or am I looking in the wrong place?

Nope. The page suggests that they are only tracking those three particular states (FL, GA & NC) for timing/logistics reasons: "If Joe Biden wins one of these three states, he is likely to win the presidency. If President Trump wins all three, it could be days or more before a winner is declared."

[Swaggs]

Unifying speech here.

[bhlloy]

That seems like a bit of a miscalculation in hindsight... although the logistics of trying to figure out where the votes have still to come from in the states that didn't plan to count most of the votes on election night probably makes it a non starter

[molson]

Nate Silver is no longer the god of election predicting but here's how he sums things up now:

"So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three “easy” paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin."

He's in a better place than Clinton was in this moment 4 years ago.

I am officially done looking at this shit for tonight. One more wind-down firepit beer. My dog (who is dying of cancer) doesn't know what the fuck is going on, but he's loving that we're hanging out at the firepit at 12:30 AM.

[stevew]

what the fuck is wrong with this guy.

[sovereignstar v2]

God I hope this speech becomes a classic.

[stevew]

he literally called it fraud.

[larrymcg421]

Every Republican who fails to call him out for that is a fucking coward.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by molson

Nate Silver is no longer the god of election predicting but here's how he sums things up now:

"So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three “easy” paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin."

He's in a better place than Clinton was in this moment 4 years ago.

I am officially done looking at this shit for tonight. One more wind-down firepit beer. My dog (who is dying of cancer) doesn't know what the fuck is going on, but he's loving that we're hanging out at the firepit at 12:30 AM.

My dog jumped up on the couch (he almost never does) to comfort me because I was so upset earlier. He's been here for like 4 hours now. Dogs are awesome. Sorry to hear about yours. I lost one to cancer about 3 years ago and it's tough.

[molson]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

My dog jumped up on the couch (he almost never does) to comfort me because I was so upset earlier. He's been here for like 4 hours now. Dogs are awesome. Sorry to hear about yours. I lost one to cancer about 3 years ago and it's tough.

Thanks. Your dog sounds awesome. Mine is a few weeks past his vet-predicted life expectancy and still having a good time. The hardest thing is just waiting for him to decline and not being sure what form that will take, but I suppose that's the reality of dog ownership generally. I'm hoping he makes it to his 10th birthday in about 2 weeks.

[stevew]

Looks like Republicans control 28ish house delegations.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

That someone could mark a Cooper-Trump ballot makes no sense to me

You haven't heard Dan Forest. His entire platform seemed to be that COVID was a myth & he'd force every kid back to school & every business to open as soon as he took office. Like the dude couldn't even phrase it as I'd he'd give people the option, he said he'd make them do it.

[stevew]

I barely watch CNN but Don Lemon makes me hate liberals

[whomario]

Is Wisconsin still conceivable as a Biden vote ? Seems Georgia and Michigan very much are given trends and estimates of outstandings, couldn't get a clear picture for Wisconsin,

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by whomario

Is Wisconsin still conceivable as a Biden vote ? Seems Georgia and Michigan very much are given trends and estimates of outstandings, couldn't get a clear picture for Wisconsin,

There's an update coming in 20 minutes with the absentees from Milwaukee.

[wustin]

Biden has a 2k lead in wisconsin with 95% of precincts reported

[whomario]

Originally Posted by wustin

Biden has a 2k lead in wisconsin with 95% of precincts reported

My bad. Last i saw was Trump+4 with aprox. 16% not counted

[larrymcg421]

The absentees have put Biden ahead by 20k in Wisconsin.

Here's where we're at. Biden looks good in AZ. That would leave 5 remaining races - PA, MI, WI, GA, NC. Biden needs to only win 2 of those to get to 270. Trump needs to win 4 of 5.

[wustin]

Biden needs to win WI, MI, and PA assuming he wins AZ.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by wustin

Biden needs to win WI, MI, and PA assuming he wins AZ.

Ari, Nev, Wis (all likely now) + Mich would be 270 if my math is correct. PA only needed if he misses out on one of those 4 AND does not get Georgia (as many or more electoral votes as any of the others) which seems still possible to likely. Or have i missed sth ?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by wustin

Biden needs to win WI, MI, and PA assuming he wins AZ.

What? No.

AZ puts him at 244. Any combination of 2 of WI, MI, PA, GA puts him at 270.

I will correct my earlier math because NC is only 15 votes, so a combo of WI and NC, but nothing else would give him 269.

[larrymcg421]

PredictIt now has Biden at .65, almost exactly where he was at 7pm.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

PredictIt now has Biden at .65, almost exactly where he was at 7pm.

Waking up to better news than I expected. Thanks for the update.

[RainMaker]

Looks like Biden has it with Wisconsin coming through and outstanding votes in Michigan heavily favoring him. Guess if he pulls out Pennsylvania, it won't be far off from the predictions.

Guilty of ignoring all those experts who said it would look like Trump won on election night till the mail in ballots got counted.

[larrymcg421]

Hmmm. Some concern for Biden in NV. Biden's lead down to 9k with 15% remaining.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Hmmm. Some concern for Biden in NV. Biden's lead down to 9k with 15% remaining.

Aren't most of the missing from Vegas/Clark County (which skews heavily democrat) ?

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by whomario

Aren't most of the missing from Vegas/Clark County (which skews heavily democrat) ?

75K from what I just saw:

So here's where we are in NV:

There are tens of thousands of mail ballots still to be counted in Clark: 337K have been counted; at least 413K have been returned. So 75K or so. These have dramatically favored the Dems so far by more than 2-to-1. Biden should do well there.
1/2

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020

[RainMaker]

Looks like Biden heavy votes left in Nevada.

[HerRealName]

They just stated that no more Nevada updates until 9 AM on the 5th.

[Hammer]

Sending my sympathy from the U.K. Can't believe anyone would vote for Trump, what goes on inside these peoples heads. It doesn't look good right now, but hopefully something unexpected happens. This guy is an embarrassment. If he loses its rigged, lol, sounds like a loony FOF GM.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

They just stated that no more Nevada updates until 9 AM on the 5th.

This will open the door wide for Trump to launch his tirades.

[bhlloy]

Yeah, I don't think there's major concern in NV given where the votes have to come from and given that they are mail in ballots.

Of course any state that ends up within 1% they can ask for a recount, and that's when I imagine the courts start getting involved and things getting wacky... at first glance NV and WI could definitely fall into that category. And there's almost certainly going to be something to try to stop processing mail/late arriving ballots in PA/MI as well. What a mess.

[Ben E Lou]

1. Sounds like this will be the most insane and ugly week-ish of the Trump Presidency. That's saying a lot.
2. I have reviewed the reports (there were, um, a lot) of BillyMadison. He won't be rejoining us until after the inauguration at the earliest.

[Edward64]

Surprise, surprise. Pollsters wrong again, there were some shy Trumpsters out there.

Just great, at least another day (or two) of drama.

Even if Biden wins, its evident it won't be by a large margin to indicate significant repudiation of Trump. Unfortunately, this means Trumpism will be with us for a while and likely into 2024.

I've said we can survive another 4 years of Trump. But the worst to me is the Senate with fair odds to remain GOP. That is the bad combo and another +2 to +4 years of the same.

Joe, pull this out.

[Ben E Lou]

Wayne County (Detroit) just reported roughly 150K ballots, and nearly 140K were for Biden.

Just this update cut Trump's lead in Michigan by nearly two thirds.

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 4, 2020

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Even if Biden wins, its evident it won't be by a large margin to indicate significant repudiation of Trump. Unfortunately, this means Trumpism will be with us for a while and likely into 2024.

This, longer than that I would say. The country needed a repudiation of that and regardless of anything else, we didn't get that. My top takeaway from the election is that this is who we are as a nation.

This is who we are as a nation.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

What? No.

AZ puts him at 244. Any combination of 2 of WI, MI, PA, GA puts him at 270.

I will correct my earlier math because NC is only 15 votes, so a combo of WI and NC, but nothing else would give him 269.

So there's a mathematical chance this will end up tied 269 each? If so, what would be the tie-breaker?

(Yes, I adore the irony that I'm the one asking others what the tie-breaker would be )

[Brian Swartz]

Practical answer; SCOTUS. You know it would go there, it might end up doing so anyway.

But in the event of a tie, the House chooses the president and the Senate chooses the VP. Ponder for a moment the prospects of a Biden-Pence presidency as one possibility. But each state, rather than each Rep, would get one vote in the house; the reps from each state vote as one delegation. So it essentially turns the House into a mini-Senate for the purposes of that vote.

We don't want this. We really, really don't want this.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This, longer than that I would say. The country needed a repudiation of that and regardless of anything else, we didn't get that. My top takeaway from the election is that this is who we are as a nation.

This is who we are as a nation.

The only way Trumpism gets repudiated is in a Republican Presidential Primary. It should be clear as a bell now that in a GE, the huge majority of Americans are going to vote for whatever scumbag their team is offering, because they view said scumbag as better than letting the other team get control.

[tarcone]

Doesnt seem like a whole lot changed over night. Trump being Trump and the 6 states holding up the process.

It is going to get ugly in this country, Im afraid.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

1. Sounds like this will be the most insane and ugly week-ish of the Trump Presidency. That's saying a lot.
2. I have reviewed the reports (there were, um, a lot) of BillyMadison. He won't be rejoining us until after the inauguration at the earliest.

We’re his posts deleted because I could use a giggle this morning after I take some Advil.

[Butter]

No man, just look at the last page

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Doesnt seem like a whole lot changed over night. Trump being Trump and the 6 states holding up the process.

It is going to get ugly in this country, Im afraid.

I guess it depends on what time you went to bed but I'm much more confident of a Biden win this morning. Granted, I was only like 10% last night but I'm, more like 65% now.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

The only way Trumpism gets repudiated is in a Republican Presidential Primary. It should be clear as a bell now that in a GE, the huge majority of Americans are going to vote for whatever scumbag their team is offering, because they view said scumbag as better than letting the other team get control.

This exactly. Tribalism and absolutism are the fabric of our times.