Official 2024 College Football Thread

[bob]

Every rivalry game I watched yesterday had pregame montages of clips through the years that included pushing and showing between teams. Why are we are shocked that this happened yesterday?

[Passacaglia]

I'll do this with the AP Poll today since CFP doesn't come out until Tuesday and I want to do it now. There hasn't been much difference anyway.

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State

5. Penn State
12. Arizona State

6. Notre Dame
11. Alabama

7. Georgia
10. Indiana

8. Tennessee
9. Ohio State

First few out: South Carolina, Miami, Ole Miss. I think it's over for all of these guys if the CFP Poll ends up like this. Who can they jump? Georgia is their best opportunity, and I don't think that's happening. During the Georgia-GT game, they kept repeating that Georgia is in if they beat GT, that they won't fall out if they lose to Texas. They said it so much it felt like they know something.

Changes: Miami drops out, Alabama takes their spot.

By conference: B1G 4, SEC 4, ACC 1, MW 1, Ind 1, B12 1

With the loss by Tulane, all the AAC talk is done. The Big 12 is in. Even if Boise State loses, UNLV will take a spot.

Indiana. The two teams I was worried about taking their spot were South Carolina, and a Miami/SMU loser. The Miami loss helped them, since SMU losing to Clemson drops them below Indiana. And South Carolina didn't jump past them by beating Clemson. If the CFP is like this, they are comfortably in.

Alabama. If the CFP poll is like this, I see them getting in, too. Again, it's all the big what-if about SMU losing to Clemson, and where they would fall. Every other conference championship has two teams definitely in (B1G, SEC), or are only getting the winner in (MW, B12). SMU is the only team in that gray area where a loss makes it unsure, and Alabama is in that last spot that they would take.

South Carolina. I think there's still hope for them. Maybe? They need to jump Alabama in the CFP poll, even though they didn't in AP. And if they don't this week, does a Clemson win over SMU mean they'd get some kind of extra credit for beating a conference champion?

Big 12. Pretty simple here, winner between Arizona State and Iowa State is in. The only "interesting" question is if an Arizona State win moves them out of the 12 spot (personally, I think it should). During the Iowa State-Kansas State game, one of the announcers predicted two Big 12 teams making the playoff. Insane.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I don't know if anyone watched the EKU/Villanova playoff game today, but holy crap, the refs just screwed EKU over and then almost gave it back. They needed a TD, and on the last play of the game, the QB hit the wide open receiver in the back of the endzone as time expired, but he was out of bounds. It was brutal.


They screwed them by calling an obvious strip sack touchdown back as an incomplete pass on review. The QB started a shovel pass, clearly pulled it down as he was getting sacked, then got stripped. The EKU head coach was flagged for an unsportmanlike penalty for getting in the side judges face afterward. It was just an incredible hot mess.

Link to the play in question.


Along to the news article about it: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/article296096564.html

[Solecismic]

As I was looking at it last night, I think the key takeaway on Tuesday is whether Miami drops past Alabama. Everything else looks relatively set with the big remaining issue being whether SMU can beat Clemson (which will force the same algorithm to determine how far SMU falls).

I think the ACC has received a bit of a break for the schedule not putting together the top teams. The SEC was 8-3 against the ACC, and perhaps South Carolina's win yesterday affects the entire equation in Alabama's favor, since South Carolina has an Alabama/Mississippi ceiling.

[Atocep]

WVU finally fires Neal Brown.

[Ghost Econ]

Is Oregon the most non-descript undefeated #1 in a decade? I literally can't name a single player on their team.

[sovereignstar v2]

Not even their QB?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Not even their QB?

Who is their Qb?

[GrantDawg]

Dola: I just looked back on their schedule, and I see why I haven't watched a minute of any of their games this year. Other than OSU, it was a pretty lackluster schedule. The Michigan game would have been interesting if Michigan hadn't already fell off the cliff by them. And the OSU game was on my anniversary weekend so I didn't get to see any of that as well.

[sovereignstar v2]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Who is their Qb?

The guy with the 2nd most career passing yards in NCAA history. Football is played outside of the confederacy, shocking I know

[cuervo72]

Heh, it's pretty amazing how in these huge conferences almost every team winds up having a lackluster schedule. (It's almost as if these megaconferences are made up of too many lackluster teams...)

[Passacaglia]

I'm sure they'll take care of that next.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

The guy with the 2nd most career passing yards in NCAA history. Football is played outside of the confederacy, shocking I know

Assuming he makes all conference this season (which may be a big assumption with these 16 team conferences), he will have been all conference in the AAC, Big 12, and Big Ten. He probably has a pretty good shot at being a college football HoFer.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

The guy with the 2nd most career passing yards in NCAA history. Football is played outside of the confederacy, shocking I know

Yeah, junior leagues or something, we know.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

The guy with the 2nd most career passing yards in NCAA history. Football is played outside of the confederacy, shocking I know

Most Saturdays, I watch football from 12 till after midnight. Sometimes I have three to four game going at the same time. Oregon just played a pretty "meh" schedule, with the only game of real interest falling on the weekend I was busy. In general I don't catch a lot of West coast games for the obvious reason that I after 12 hours I'm not staying up three more to watch a game starting that late. I didn't create timezones, nor the Ducks snoozer of a schedule.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Heh, it's pretty amazing how in these huge conferences almost every team winds up having a lackluster schedule. (It's almost as if these megaconferences are made up of too many lackluster teams...)

Only certain teams. Georgia played one of the toughest schedules I have ever seen, and are getting rewarded by having to play Texas yet again.

[sovereignstar v2]

You don't have to watch late night Oregon games to know who Dillon Gabriel. You just need to be a college football fan.

[Ghost Econ]

I figured he had graduated 3 years ago and would be holding a clipboard by now

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I figured he had graduated 3 years ago and would be holding a clipboard by now

Ditto.

[GrantDawg]

Heck, there are lots of players I would love to forget. Carson Beck being one of them. I imagine the main reason I didn't know the name is he is like the 9th or 10th quarterback on most draft boards, so he has great college numbers but not exactly an exciting prospect. Or do you have to memorize every position down to the 10th best player to be a "real" college football fan? I would hate to be left out of the gatekeeping.

[cuervo72]

Honestly I know coaches and that's about it. I watch football pretty much all day Saturday, but other than that I tune out. No betting, no analysis shows, etc. So I might see a lot of these teams two, three times tops. I am decent at remembering things, but I need more repetition than that to memorize names.

[albionmoonlight]

I suspect that at some point over the next decade, the conference movement will settle down, and the players will agree to a union that sets rules for NIL, transfers, etc. and that we will fall into a new equilibrium.

And we will look back on this era with 10-year COVID seniors and unregulated NIL and transfers and have no idea what to think about it---other than all generally agreeing that it wasn't great.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I will say that there are few things I enjoy more than listening to Ohio State podcasts after Michigan beats them. This year especially. The reactions are off the charts.

[BishopMVP]

Am I missing something or does it seem like an arbitrage opportunity on SMU lines? (Unless you really think they'd be in with a loss to Clemson) -137 to beat Clemson, +210 to miss the playoff. I have 11 playoff locks (the 4 B1G schools, Texas/Georgia/Tennessee, ND, B12/ACC/G5 champs), which leaves one spot for 9-3 Bama, 9-3 South Carolina, 10-2 Miami or 11-2 SMU if they lose, I don't see how SMU wins that unless the committee wants to make a point about conference championship games or how 11 is more than 10.

Best wins of Louisville, Pitt, TCU and Duke don't impress me. Heck even BYU would be there with 2 losses, a stronger schedule, and a win at SMU.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Goodness, I kinda dread talking to Will once he sees that Bama is keeping both Miami and Ole Miss out of the CFP.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And let me be clear, that's an emotionally unpleasant scenario for him.

It ain't cause I'm ready to advocate for Miami (who didn't beat ANYBODY) getting into a playoff, nor Ole Miss.

Hell, I find it pretty comical that Tennessee is in a playoff spot.

12 teams is absolutely absurd.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And just to get ahead of the inevitable ... I suggest haters of a certain {cough} team or conference start wishing for the committee to be replaced by computers might oughta take a look at where the computers have things.

Bama is #9 in the computer composite and SIX of the top 12 teams are from the SEC.

Massey Ratings - Rankings

[Solecismic]

It seems the committee took the Syracuse > Miami result (thanks to Ohio State releasing Kyle McCord) as a referendum on ACC internal strength of schedule - why wouldn't the ACC be as parity-altered as the SEC? And the South Carolina > Clemson result as an indication of overall SEC strength (the SEC was 8-3 against the ACC).

So Alabama gets that 11 spot over Miami and SMU is slotted behind Tennessee and Ohio State. Indiana and SMU are both 1-loss majors with questionable schedule strength, but Indiana doesn't have to risk anything on Saturday.

The AAC is 24 vs unranked and the Mountain West is 11 vs 22, so the non-power team is set. Not only are the conference championship games relatively unexciting, but they aren't going to determine all that much.

I can't be the only one hoping for poor conference championship television ratings compared to the past and breakout ratings for the first round of the playoff.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It seems the committee took the Syracuse > Miami result (thanks to Ohio State releasing Kyle McCord) as a referendum on ACC internal strength of schedule - why wouldn't the ACC be as parity-altered as the SEC? And the South Carolina > Clemson result as an indication of overall SEC strength (the SEC was 8-3 against the ACC).

So Alabama gets that 11 spot over Miami and SMU is slotted behind Tennessee and Ohio State. Indiana and SMU are both 1-loss majors with questionable schedule strength, but Indiana doesn't have to risk anything on Saturday.

The AAC is 24 vs unranked and the Mountain West is 11 vs 22, so the non-power team is set. Not only are the conference championship games relatively unexciting, but they aren't going to determine all that much.

I can't be the only one hoping for poor conference championship television ratings compared to the past and breakout ratings for the first round of the playoff.

Let's note that Miami has no strength of schedule to speak of themselves. They're actually kinda lucky to not be behind Ole Miss too. Canes only game against a team currently ranked by the CFP is last weekend's loss to Syracuse ... who are only ranked now because they beat Miami lol.

[GrantDawg]

As for the championship games, Clemson is playing for its life. The other teams are playing to win so they won't have to play the next week. Maybe viewership will be down, but there isn't a team that is willing to lose their game and give up the championship and the possible break.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

As for the championship games, Clemson is playing for its life. The other teams are playing to win so they won't have to play the next week. Maybe viewership will be down, but there isn't a team that is willing to lose their game and give up the championship and the possible break.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I would figure round one of the CFP is what could take a hit in the ratings. 3? 4? blowouts won't be pretty for television. For that matter conference title games may produce much the same.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'll do this with the AP Poll today since CFP doesn't come out until Tuesday and I want to do it now. There hasn't been much difference anyway.

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State

5. Penn State
12. Arizona State

6. Notre Dame
11. Alabama

7. Georgia
10. Indiana

8. Tennessee
9. Ohio State

Only difference between this and the actual CFP is Ohio State and Tennessee are flipped, which doesn't change anything other than the location of the game.

Indiana looks like they are in.

South Carolina doesn't move up past anyone for beating Clemson, so they seem out. It's not just Alabama ahead of them, but Miami and Ole Miss, too.

It still seems like the only thing that could possibly kick Alabama out is SMU losing to Clemson, but not falling too far. My guess is that if SMU loses, they fall below Alabama, so I figure they are most likely in. But that's really the only question other than who the conference winners are. Arizona State, Iowa State, and Clemson are probably pulling for UNLV to upset Boise State, so that if they win, they can get a bye instead of ending up in the 12 spot and playing at ND or Oregon.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I can't be the only one hoping for poor conference championship television ratings compared to the past and breakout ratings for the first round of the playoff.

Why are you hoping for that?

One thing I've liked about the 12 team playoff is that I thought it would make the conference championship games more interesting. I think the way this season has panned out makes that less the case, though there's still something. B1G and SEC are playing for a bye. ACC and B12 are playing for a spot -- I think the 12-team playoff makes these games way more interesting than they would be otherwise, in a 4-team playoff, no one would care about these at all. Even MW is interesting now.

As for B1G and SEC, this might be what we get every time -- 4 teams that will all be in the playoff no matter what, it's just a question of where. I think tiebreakers are playing a little bit of a role here though -- if Indiana were playing instead of Penn State, we'd be saying Oregon is playing for a bye week, and Indiana is playing for a bye week with a win, and being out with a loss. If Tennessee were playing instead of Georgia, I'd say Tennessee is probably still in with a loss, though.

[Passacaglia]

What would a 4-team playoff look like?

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State

I figure Notre Dame would be in. B1G and SEC winner would be in. If Oregon and Texas won, it'd be close between Penn State and Ohio State for the last spot. I think a loss by either Oregon or Texas would not kick them out (unless both lose, then it would just be Oregon staying in).

[BishopMVP]

Committee with some quotes that make me think they want to keep SMU in even if they lose,

"It could change. It all depends on the outcome of these [conference championship] games," Manuel said. "As we have said, we have high regard for those who are playing in those conference championships."

But considering SMU didn't beat Clemson or Miami and Clemson went 0-2 vs SEC teams I have a hard time seeing them pick SMU over Bama with a loss.

South Carolina also seems like the hardest done team (but also, don't lose 27-3 to a team near you), I don't agree with this statement.

"Any team that is not playing right now, we don't have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked, and so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of championship week," Manuel said. "There's nothing that's going to change for us to evaluate them any differently than we have now.

"Those teams who are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to other teams that are not playing, but the championship [game] teams we will evaluate that data point to determine if there needs to be any movement, based on how the performance of the game goes."

Hypothetically if Clemson ran it up by 50 on SMU Saturday night why wouldn't that be a data point in the Gamecocks favor vs Ole Miss, Miami and Bama? (And SMU obviously.)

I may have been wrong about the chance SMU misses vs Bama but Vegas still seems high on them to me. Up to +350 to miss it, Bama at +285 and one of those two is out if Clemson wins a game that seems like a pick em. Weather will be cold Saturday night in Charlotte, between that and the way the SC loss happened it may dampen Tigers fan enthusiasm but that's still a borderline home game for them at BoA.

[Swaggs]

I’m not sure if it has been mentioned in this thread, but there is a chance that each of the “P4” champions will be teams that are new to their conferences. Imagine if, 5-years ago, you heard that these are the conference champions in 2024:
Oregon - Big Ten
Texas - SEC
SMU - ACC
Arizona St - Big 12
(Bonus - Washington St and Oregon St are 1 and 2 in the PAC)

[Edward64]

Per ESPN

I may be eating my words, but SMU gets no respect from me.

[JPhillips]

This would be the perfect time to do an opponent draft. I'd love to see teams pick their opponent rather than just play by seed. If Penn State picked Indiana that would be great TV and the hate leading up to the game would be awesome.

[Swaggs]

Hearing 2 and 3 loss teams whine about not being included is a big reason why I didn't like the idea of the playoffs (looking at Miami here). It was a little more palatable when we were talking about 0 and 1 loss teams being left out, but if you have lost 2 or 3 times STFU. You had your chances.

Miami, in particular, didn't beat anyone with more than 8 wins on the season (Louisville) and only won two conference games against teams with winning records (Louisville and Duke, who were both 5-3). Plus, they have a bad loss. If you look at their resume versus BYU, BYU lost both of their games by less than 10 points total and at least has the road win at #8 SMU.

[cuervo72]

They should have lost to the Hokies as well. (I know, should'ves and could'ves.)

[JPhillips]

I don't think it's likely, but we could end up with a 3 loss Georgia team winning the championship game while a 1 loss Oregon team loses in the semi-finals. I'd have a hard time buying that Georgia had the better overall season.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Hearing 2 and 3 loss teams whine about not being included is a big reason why I didn't like the idea of the playoffs (looking at Miami here). It was a little more palatable when we were talking about 0 and 1 loss teams being left out, but if you have lost 2 or 3 times STFU. You had your chances.

Miami, in particular, didn't beat anyone with more than 8 wins on the season (Louisville) and only won two conference games against teams with winning records (Louisville and Duke, who were both 5-3). Plus, they have a bad loss. If you look at their resume versus BYU, BYU lost both of their games by less than 10 points total and at least has the road win at #8 SMU.

I think it's worth it to have teams like SMU, Indiana, and Boise State in. Those 11-1 teams all probably should be in (especially Indiana and Boise State, whose only losses are to top 10 teams on the road), and if it means there's a few extra spots for 10-2 teams or 9-3 teams that cause drama and bicker about, I'm fine with it.

[Solecismic]

The shorter the season and the more variant team schedules, the more playoff teams you need to preserve the integrity of the system.

There is far too much correlation between adjusted in-conference strength of schedule and number of losses. I think the committee realized this with the seeding, though for optics, they're not going to exclude a team with only one loss simply because it has zero wins against top competition.

I still see arguments that 10-1 Army is somehow being slighted because it's only ranked 24th, when the eye test suggests Army would be better matched with a 6-6 major.

My hope is that once all the dust settles and there's a CBA in place for a new league of whatever structure this evolves into, that whatever replaces the NCAA for football can expand the schedule enough to have a meaningful playoff process.

[cuervo72]

get rid of the cupcake games

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't think it's likely, but we could end up with a 3 loss Georgia team winning the championship game while a 1 loss Oregon team loses in the semi-finals. I'd have a hard time buying that Georgia had the better overall season.

I wouldn't. Oregon has played a pretty skate schedule, while Georgia has played one of the toughest schedule, if not the toughest, in all of college football. Georgia has beaten the number 2, 7, and 17th ranked teams while Oregon has wins versus 6, 10, and 21. Georgia has lost to 11 and 13, where Oregon has not played another ranked opponent. If Georgia loses to the number 2 ranked team that they have already beaten once, I wouldn't say that was a huge ding on their record.

Alabama would have been a better example, but even they have a much higher SOS than Oregon.

I do wonder though. Is a World Series champion not a champion if they get in by wild card? Super Champion? 6th seed NBA team? 5th seed college basketball team?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Hearing 2 and 3 loss teams whine about not being included is a big reason why I didn't like the idea of the playoffs (looking at Miami here). It was a little more palatable when we were talking about 0 and 1 loss teams being left out, but if you have lost 2 or 3 times STFU. You had your chances.

Miami, in particular, didn't beat anyone with more than 8 wins on the season (Louisville) and only won two conference games against teams with winning records (Louisville and Duke, who were both 5-3). Plus, they have a bad loss. If you look at their resume versus BYU, BYU lost both of their games by less than 10 points total and at least has the road win at #8 SMU.

I don't why anyone cares or loses sleep over teams whining. If you are out, you should have won more. Heck, I didn't get the Georgia fans whining last year about not getting in after losing the SEC Championship. If you wanted in, win the game.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I don't why anyone cares or loses sleep over teams whining. If you are out, you should have won more. Heck, I didn't get the Georgia fans whining last year about not getting in after losing the SEC Championship. If you wanted in, win the game.

Agreed!

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I do wonder though. Is a World Series champion not a champion if they get in by wild card? Super Champion? 6th seed NBA team? 5th seed college basketball team?

I'll grouse about the MLB playoff structure some, but yeah -- if you have a playoff system for a championship, that's what you have. An 11-5 TB wildcard team beats a 14-2 KC team, TB's the champ. KC and everyone else can suck eggs.

Of course, those leagues have pretty well-defined rules for who gets into the playoffs, and they've pretty much always had those rules (even if they've evolved). College football has been smoke signals or interpretation of clouds or patterns in magnetic shavings or whatever. People have to unlearn that, I guess. (Though if they're going to have a playoff, I think they need to get a more concrete method of determining who is in rather than plopping a system on top of that same bunch of smoke signals.)

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This would be the perfect time to do an opponent draft. I'd love to see teams pick their opponent rather than just play by seed. If Penn State picked Indiana that would be great TV and the hate leading up to the game would be awesome.

Finnish baseball did this for a few years and it just didn't juice any drama because nobody wants to give another team bulletin board material. It's one of those ideas that fans love because it creates newsreels but players and coaches are not gonna feed into because there's no upside, really.

[JPhillips]

I could see that. I'd love it though. Can you imagine the fun of Penn State taking away OSU's home game?