Weaver vs Hernandez

[Chief Rum]

Super prospect versus super prospect when the Angels meet the M's tomorrow night. SHould be a good one.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Super prospect versus super prospect when the Angels meet the M's tomorrow night. SHould be a good one.

Ehh.

Verlander vs Hernandez was more interesting. I may be biased though.

I think I speak for everyone though when I say bring on Verlander vs Liriano

[lynchjm24]

Jered Weaver is far from a super-prospect.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

Jered Weaver is far from a super-prospect.

I'd like to concur with that too.

He gives up so many fly balls it's rediculous. I wouldn't be surprised if he ever gave up 35-40 HR in a year.

[ISiddiqui]

Ditto... and Verlander v. Hernandez is much more a superprospect v. superprospect.

[dawgfan]

Hernandez vs. Liriano earlier this season was a hell of a match-up.

King Felix's ERA isn't pretty this year, but all his peripherals indicate he's still a top prospect. He's had bad luck both with batting average on balls in play as well as the number of fly balls that have gone for home runs. On the flip side, his strikeout rate remains high, his strikeout to walk ratio is good, and his groundball rate is still quite high (though not as awesome as it was last year).

He's struggling a bit with commanding his fastball, leaving it too high in the zone too often, and his pitch selection/sequences have been too predictable. He's been too stubborn trying to 'establish' his fastball early in the count. His 4-seam fastball is a very good pitch, usually between 94-98 MPH, but when hitters know it's coming they can handle it. His curveball is lethal, and his change is good enough to be a tremendous weapon mixed in with his heater - if he'd use his off-speed stuff a little more, he'd have a lot more success. Most teams have him scouted pretty well, and you'll notice most hitters are completely laying off his off-speed stuff and looking for the fastball only.

Anyway, the M's are right in the thick of the AL West race (thanks to the ineptness of the division) despite the best efforts of Mike Hargrove to sabotage the team. The M's have the best run-differential in the West, so they're not a fluke, but Oakland is getting some good players back off the DL and I expect Billy Beane to make his usual smart trade deadline moves to propel Oakland in the 2nd half. Still, if Seattle had a manager with half a brain we'd probably already be in 1st place.

[Schmidty]

"King" Felix is by far the most idiotic nickname I've heard. The dude hasn't done jack shit in the league, and they coronate him as King? Fuck that.

I can't stand him or the Mariners, although I really like Moyer (great guy), and Ichiro (self-explanatory).

Give me Liriano, Verlander, Papelbon, or Zumaya (or even Zach Miner) every time over that fat poseur.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

I guess I'm just sick of the Mariners being shoved down my throat here when I'm a Tigers fan.

[ISiddiqui]

King Felix is pretty dumb... isn't Pujols already called Prince Albert? You can't be the King if Pujols is only a Prince!

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

King Felix is pretty dumb... isn't Pujols already called King Albert? You can't steal some other dude's nickname if he's still active like that!

Plus, Pujols has done great things, while all Felix has is "potential".

I REALLY respect Mariner fans - They are rabid and faithful, but they think every player on their team is the next Ruth or Clemens.

[ISiddiqui]

I heard King Albert on Baseball Tonight.. damn Harold Reynolds leading me astry... its Prince Albert... hence original post modified.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I heard King Albert on Baseball Tonight.. damn Harold Reynolds leading me astry... its Prince Albert... hence original post modified.

Well there you go. If Pujols is only a Prince, how in the hell is Felix a King? He's more like a peasant at this point. A peasant with "potential".

[MrBug708]

How is Weaver not a super prospect?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

How is Weaver not a super prospect?

He's not even close to being as good a prospect as Ryan Anderson was. But he's a better prospect than Curt Schilling was.

[MrBug708]

Weaver would have been the top choice if not for money issues with signing?!?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Weaver would have been the top choice if not for money issues with signing?!?

Exactly. Weaver would have been #1 far and away in the same draft with Verlander.

Don't be fooled because he doesn't throw it 99 mph. He's going to be a very good pitcher (may already be actually).

He's behind Liriano, Hernandez and Verlander right now because they have been pitching in the bigs and shwoing off their stuff, but don't think he's crap just because he hasn't had a chance to really show his stuff yet.

[Chief Rum]

Dola,

I think Hernandez is ridiculously talented and the best of the four. But I would put Weaver against Liriano and Verlander longterm any day.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Dola.

I guess I'm just sick of the Mariners being shoved down my throat here when I'm a Tigers fan.

You live in Bellingham, Washington, a 1.5 hour drive from Seattle, and you complain about having the Mariners "shoved down your throat"? Are you fucking serious?

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Exactly. Weaver would have been #1 far and away in the same draft with Verlander.

Don't be fooled because he doesn't throw it 99 mph. He's going to be a very good pitcher (may already be actually).

He's behind Liriano, Hernandez and Verlander right now because they have been pitching in the bigs and shwoing off their stuff, but don't think he's crap just because he hasn't had a chance to really show his stuff yet.

He had an impressive career at LB State, but his minor league results prior to this year were good rather than great. He's had a great season so far this year in AAA, but one of the red flags that some people have regarding his MLB potential is the extreme rate of fly balls he's surrendered. Very few pitchers can get away with extreme fly ball rates - a certain percentage of those fly balls will be HR's.

I'm not saying he may not turn out to be an outstanding pitcher, but there are some reasons that not every scout is convinced of that.

Of course, that's the thing with young pitchers - you just never know. Felix has everything going for him - fantastic stuff, great minor-league numbers, a tremendous debut last year, and he's still sporting an ERA of just under 5.00 so far this year. It's probable he'll turn that around, but you just never know - he could injure his arm tomorrow and never be the same.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I REALLY respect Mariner fans - They are rabid and faithful, but they think every player on their team is the next Ruth or Clemens.

Do you really think M's fans are any worse about this than fans of any other team?

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Exactly. Weaver would have been #1 far and away in the same draft with Verlander.

At the time that would have made perfect sense. Verlander was a guy who had control issues and a high ERA in a mediocre conference. We have more information now and it's clear that Verlander is a much better prospect then Weaver. With his huge flyball tendencies Weaver is going to have good success at times mixed with getting his brains beat in some seasons... sort of like.. his brother.

While I like Verlander, his rate stats haven't supported his ERA so far this year. He has a pretty damn good defense behind him and a park that still favors pitchers.

Hernandez hasn't had a great ERA, but he's going to be fine. I could make the argument that Liriano is at worst the second best pitcher in the league today.

Weaver

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Do you really think M's fans are any worse about this than fans of any other team?

Having lived in Michigan and Florida for years: Yes.

Mariner fans are very passionate, but they treat their players as if they're their children and can do no wrong. That's a HUGE difference than most places.

LIke I said, I have been pleasantly suprised by the fans out here, but it's a whole different culture sports-wise. The fans are A LOT easier on the players here.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Having lived in Michigan and Florida for years: Yes.

Mariner fans are very passionate, but they treat their players as if they're their children and can do no wrong. That's a HUGE difference than most places.

LIke I said, I have been pleasantly suprised by the fans out here, but it's a whole different culture sports-wise. The fans are A LOT easier on the players here.

Hmmm. Maybe that's a result of the M's marketing campaign to make the players "warm & fuzzy". If you want to see M's fans not going easy on the local nine, check out the M's blogs USS Mariner and Lookout Landing - both very well written, both willing to call out sucky M's (Joel Pineiro, Willie Bloomquist, Carl Everett, Eddie Guardado - I'm talking to you...)

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

At the time that would have made perfect sense. Verlander was a guy who had control issues and a high ERA in a mediocre conference. We have more information now and it's clear that Verlander is a much better prospect then Weaver. With his huge flyball tendencies Weaver is going to have good success at times mixed with getting his brains beat in some seasons... sort of like.. his brother.

While I like Verlander, his rate stats haven't supported his ERA so far this year. He has a pretty damn good defense behind him and a park that still favors pitchers.

Hernandez hasn't had a great ERA, but he's going to be fine. I could make the argument that Liriano is at worst the second best pitcher in the league today.

Weaver

As someone who's seen every Verlander start, he's definetly learning to pitch this season, as opposed to just throwing. His K rates are not anywhere near projection but when he needs the K he gets it. He is getting a lot of groundballs and he's not wasting pitches. His innings are over 100 but his pitches thrown are probably below every other starter (That has made every start for Detroit).

He'll only improve.

That said Liriano is sick, and Felix is up and down but pretty up right now. He'll be a good one for sure.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by DeToxRoxDVHStyle

As someone who's seen every Verlander start, he's definetly learning to pitch this season, as opposed to just throwing. His K rates are not anywhere near projection but when he needs the K he gets it. He is getting a lot of groundballs and he's not wasting pitches. His innings are over 100 but his pitches thrown are probably below every other starter (That has made every start for Detroit).

He'll only improve.

That said Liriano is sick, and Felix is up and down but pretty up right now. He'll be a good one for sure.

Certainly the only big gap is between Weaver and Verlander. Not from Verlander to Hernanadez to Liriano.

[Vince]

Sigh. A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser just makes me want to cry.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Vince

Sigh. A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser just makes me want to cry.

I'll see that bad trade and raise you - Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I'll see that bad trade and raise you - Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

When all is said and done, the Giants-Twins deal may have that beat. Nathan already is a star.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

When all is said and done, the Giants-Twins deal may have that beat. Nathan already is a star.

Could end up being that way, yes. But at the moment, I think the M's/Red Sox deal is a bigger steal.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I'll see that bad trade and raise you - Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb.

Pedro for Delino DeShields

No one for Piazza

[Chief Rum]

I know it's just one game, but...

7 IP, 5 HA, 1 BB, 9 K

He's 5-0 now (has won all five starts) with a 1.35 ERA.

Haven't seen anything yet that tells me he can't wear the "super prospect" label.

[Terps]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Pedro for Delino DeShields

No one for Piazza

Pete Harnisch, Steve Finley, and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I know it's just one game, but...

7 IP, 5 HA, 1 BB, 9 K

He's 5-0 now (has won all five starts) with a 1.35 ERA.

Haven't seen anything yet that tells me he can't wear the "super prospect" label.

You know like his stuff, or the fact that he's going to give up a ton of home runs....

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

You know like his stuff, or the fact that he's going to give up a ton of home runs....

Pitchers who give up homeonruns do actually still do well, you know. It's harder, a definite weakness. But quite doable.

And anyways, when it starts to happen, I guess we can talk about it. Since it hasn't, all we have left are the current stirling results.

And, BTW, he wasn't exactly blown away in the PCL, where every field is like Coors Field. You would think a pitcher with long bomb tendencies would have flailed there, but he posted a 1.99 ERA (in the PCL!).

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And anyways, when it starts to happen, I guess we can talk about it. Since it hasn't, all we have left are the current stirling results.

I know you are a big Angels fan and are fired up. Who do you think will have a better career: Jered Weaver or Jeff Weaver?

It's a small sample size and nothing correlates to home run rate like fly ball %. If you get your hopes up on this guy you are just going to get disappointed.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

I know you are a big Angels fan and are fired up. Who do you think will have a better career: Jered Weaver or Jeff Weaver?

I think Jeff Weaver needs to have a career before we can have this discussion. So far, Jered is actually playing like a pitcher worthy of being in the starting rotation. Weaver hasn't really done shit since the Yankees gave him that big contract.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

I know you are a big Angels fan and are fired up. Who do you think will have a better career: Jered Weaver or Jeff Weaver?

It's a small sample size and nothing correlates to home run rate like fly ball %. If you get your hopes up on this guy you are just going to get disappointed.

I am a big Angels fan, yes, but I think you're misunderstanding my main contention. Is Jered Weaver a super-prospect? I say yes, you say no.

Weaver has all sorts of hype, was a projected #1 overall, and has dominated at every level so far. I think that he's worthy of the label super-prospect. Will he be a superstar let's say ten years down the road? Certainly a question mark. He will have to prove he can make it, despite givng up a high fly-ball percentage.

And if you don't think he's better than his brother, honestly, you ought to actually do something new and not just read scouting reports, but actually watch the guy pitch. You only have to watch one game to know this kid has a whole different sort of makeup on the mound than his brother, who crumbles the instant anything goes poorly for him. He's one of the more poised kids I have seen come up in a while, and when he needs to make a pitch, so far, all I have seen him do is make it.

[Schmidty]

Everyone loves their own team's "golden boys". Threads like this are largely masturbatory.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And if you don't think he's better than his brother, honestly, you ought to actually do something new and not just read scouting reports, but actually watch the guy pitch. You only have to watch one game to know this kid has a whole different sort of makeup on the mound than his brother, who crumbles the instant anything goes poorly for him. He's one of the more poised kids I have seen come up in a while, and when he needs to make a pitch, so far, all I have seen him do is make it.

He's better then his brother today. They are really more similar then you'd like to admit. Weaver the elder pieced together 1400 league average innings coming into this season, which is better then 95% of the pitchers who have appeared in the majors.

Again it's a few starts and don't go crazy until he's been around the league.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

and when he needs to make a pitch, so far, all I have seen him do is make it.

When I pointed out what a horrible signing Josh Towers extension was in the offseason this is what the other Blue Jays fans told me.

You can get by in the short term being an outlier - if you want to be a big time starter in baseball today you have to strike guys out and get ground balls. Not one, not neither.

The guys I work with refuse to believe that a 3.0 k/9 won't do Cheng Ming Wang in, I'll do the same with you that I do with them... save the thread.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

He's better then his brother today. They are really more similar then you'd like to admit. Weaver the elder pieced together 1400 league average innings coming into this season, which is better then 95% of the pitchers who have appeared in the majors.

Again it's a few starts and don't go crazy until he's been around the league.

I'm not. I'm just calling him a super prospect, not a bonafide major league star. Brien Taylor was a super prospect, too. So was Rick Ankiel. Plenty of super-hyped players don't end up doing squat. What I have been trying to say all along is that he belongs in the conversation when you're talking about the recent influx of terrific young pitching talent into the league.

I'm not making promises of Hall of Fame induction or even saying he will end up an above avergae pitcher.

As for his comparison to Weaver, don't presuppose to guess what I would "like to admit". He is very similar to his brother in many ways. They are both pitchers with less than 95mph fastballs, decent command of their pitches, and high flyball rates. They even both wear their hair the same.

What you may be forgetting is that when Jeff Weaver came up with the Tigers, no one questioned his talent. He was a very good, young starting pitcher. But he was very inconsistent, and tended to think himself out of games. This only got worse as he played in big cities like New York and LA. Jeff Weaver is a pitcher with terrific talent--and a messed up head on the mound.

Jered Weaver has the same talent, but he hasn't displayed the tendencies to implode when things go badly for him. That's where he is much better than his brother. If Jered can continue to show that poise, he will have the chance to maximize his ability that his brother never had, and become a much better, more consistent pitcher. Only time will tell if that ends up being the case, though. But he's off to a good start.

[st.cronin]

The first time I saw Jered Weaver pitch, I thought to myself "I thought they said JERED Weaver, not Jeff." They are uncannily similiar. I would be shocked if Jered Weaver turned out to be a star.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

You can get by in the short term being an outlier - if you want to be a big time starter in baseball today you have to strike guys out and get ground balls. Not one, not neither.

So pitchers who give up flyballs don't ever succeed? I'll admit I don't visit BP every day, but I find that hard to believe. As for K's, Weaver is doing very well in that category.

[Schmidty]

My prediction:

Weaver will average 13-14 wins with a 4.00 ERA over his career. Very solid (with a few very good seasons), but not elite. Then again, I'm just guessing based on what I've read and such, and the fact that I watched Jeff for years in Detroit.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Weaver has all sorts of hype, was a projected #1 overall, and has dominated at every level so far.

It's a minor quibble, but Jered didn't dominate AA last year in my opinion. He did have a very good K rate of 9.63/9 IP, but that was tempered by his 3.98 BB rate. He was good in AA, but not dominant.

That said, he did dominate in college, in A ball last year and AAA this year, and is dominating in the majors so far. He won't maintain this ridiculous level of success, but he could very well be a top-notch MLB starter for the next 10 years. On the other hand, he could fall back to earth some as the scouts get better reports on him and hitters start getting used to him and making adjustments.

I have no dispute with calling him a top-notch pitching prospect. I think Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez have higher chances of long-term success, but projecting pitchers is tougher than projecting hitters. There's a fair chance all three could flame out for various reasons - that's just the unpredictable nature of young pitchers.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

My prediction:

Weaver will average 13-14 wins with a 4.00 ERA over his career. Very solid (with a few very good seasons), but not elite. Then again, I'm just guessing based on what I've read and such, and the fact that I watched Jeff for years in Detroit.

What does Jeff Weaver have to do with Jered Weaver? That's like comparing Mike and Greg Maddux together because they are brothers

[John Galt]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So pitchers who give up flyballs don't ever succeed? I'll admit I don't visit BP every day, but I find that hard to believe. As for K's, Weaver is doing very well in that category.

Some flyball pitchers are able to succeed. But because they have a tendency to give up the long ball (and have a higher BABIP), they need both a high K and low BB rate. Schilling is the proto-typical success story in this regard. Weaver doesn't look to have Schilling's power and may have a much worse GB/FB ratio, so his margin for error is even less.

I think the player Weaver could most be like is Chris Young of the Padres. Young is putting up a ridiculous .48 GB/FB ratio which is the lowest in the majors this year. Weaver has a .40 GB/FB ratio in limited sample size. Young has an 8.25 K/9 ratio which has helped him succeed. His K/BB ratio is 2.50. Now, Young is a bit of a breakout story and it isn't clear that he will be able to succeed over the long term with that GB/FB ratio (in the same way that many sinker ball pitchers struggle with consistency - Westbrook, Lowe, etc.). Young also is helped a lot by his home park. If Weaver were playing for the Pads or Nats, he would certainly be helped as well. With the Angels, it is a bit trickier for him.

Now if Weaver could keep his GB/FB ratio around .8, he would be in an area where there are a lot of successful pitchers (although they are almost always power pitchers), like Pedro, Schilling, Schmidt, and Peavy. But that is not where he is at right now and may require a substantial change in his pitching style.

Looking at PECOTA's comparable player list, you don't see a lot of "good" names for Weaver, but one interesting one that I forgot was John Patterson. He is a definite flyball pitcher who, like Young, is helped by his park. He was a former top prospect that battled through injuries and found success in the right setting.

I could easily see Weaver having great success if he turns in a very good K/BB ratio (or ends up in a good home park). But I could also see him fail miserably like Dennis Tankersly (who is #9 on the PECOTA list). It should be noted too that none of the players on the PECOTA list have a very high similarity score because Weaver is a unique pitcher. And maybe that counts in his favor as well.

I think it is fair to count him as a top pitching prospect, but his flyball ratio should raise some eyebrows and may ultimately be his undoing.

edit: And if you want another scary name for Weaver's future, it would be Scott Elarton. The man who once put up 121 K/43 BB in 124 IP with a 3.48 ERA, has never been able to repeat that success. And he has one of the lowest GB/FB ratios this season (his career is .76).

[John Galt]

dola,

I just checked the lowest GB/FB ratio pitchers over the last few years. Remember, these are only qualifed pitchers (often the really bad ones don't get enough IP). Here is the list:

2005:

Patterson .61
Elarton .67
Young .68
Milton .68
Claussen .77

2004:

Milton .58
Ishii .64
Oliver Perez .74
Cliff Lee .76
Ryan Franklin .78

2003

Washburn .68
Darrell May .71
Garrett Stephenson .73
Wayne Franklin .75
Ryan Franklin .76

If there is one thing in common among the names on that list, it is maddening inconsistency. Most of them have had one or two good seasons, but most of them have only had that one or two good seasons.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

What you may be forgetting is that when Jeff Weaver came up with the Tigers, no one questioned his talent.

You are right, the only thing we are really quibbling over is the term 'super' prospect. I put Weaver behind the big 3 in the American League, you think he should be included with them. It's not that I dislike Weaver, it's just that I see a guy like Liriano being in another class of talent.

I think Weaver the elder is probably more talented, and I think JG hit it right on the head when he talked about this type of pitcher being very inconsistent.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by John Galt

If there is one thing in common among the names on that list, it is maddening inconsistency. Most of them have had one or two good seasons, but most of them have only had that one or two good seasons.

The only thing I would want to have in common with those guys is their tax bracket.