Weaver vs Hernandez

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

It's a minor quibble, but Jered didn't dominate AA last year in my opinion. He did have a very good K rate of 9.63/9 IP, but that was tempered by his 3.98 BB rate. He was good in AA, but not dominant.

Agreed, he didn't dominate. What I would point out there is that he was coming back from taking a whole year off while the Angels and Boras argued over his contract. He didn't start pitching until June, had his spring training essentially in Single A, and by the time he was "up to speed", it was probably August, when everyone else had already well settled into their routines. I would pretty much toss out last year entirely (both good results and bad).

[Chief Rum]

Thanks for the discussion, John & Jim. You both make very valid points. It's interesting that Washburn pops up on that list, John, because he's one of the classic Angels I think of when it comes to the flyball pitcher.

What I think (and hope) will set Weaver apart is his very good command (strong ability at a young age to put any of his pitches where he wants them), his poise on the mound, and also a deceptive wind-up that I saw one local writer equate to Hideo Nomo's. I think that's overstating it a bit, but I do understand that has had its impact, too.

It's a small sample size (again), but in AAA, he was putting up 1.2 BB/9, 11.4 K/9 (9.5:1 K:BB ratio), and allowed 7 HRs in 83 IP in the thin air PCL. And in the majors so far, the numbers are 1.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9 (6:1 K:BB ratio), and allowed 2 HRs in 33.3 IP. Despite the lack of truly dominant stuff, those numbers seem to fit into the range of the high strikeout-to-walk ratio and good control you were noting as required. Of course, this is just five starts at the major league level (& 13 apps at Salt Lake), so take this all with a bit of skepticism.

I wouldn't argue too hard for Weaver to be put behind Hernandez, Liriano or Verlander. I see him as at least not having pitched himself out of being included with those prospects, but Liriano and Verlander have certainly put up the numbers in the bigs, and Hernandez (while he hasn't yet performed really) is acknowledged almost universally to be the best pitching prospect in, what, 20 years? No shame to be ranked just behind that group.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

and Hernandez (while he hasn't yet performed really) is acknowledged almost universally to be the best pitching prospect in, what, 20 years?

Well he did have 12 ridiculously good starts last year at the age of 19.

84 IP - 61 H - 23 BB - 77 K - 5 HR - 2.67 ERA where the league average was 4.32.

This year
103 IP - 113 H - 31 BB - 98 K - 15 HR - 4.95 ERA

Prospectus is translating his numbers to:
7.6 k/9 2.6 w/9 1.1 hr/9 The only real difference from last year is a 0.6 hr/9 increase from 0.5 to 1.1

To me the outlier in his numbers this year to date is the ERA. Looking at his game logs though he's been consistently mediocre when you look at it start by start.

Who knows, maybe he is what gets Seattle to the playoffs this year with a big second half.

Checking out Weaver's game logs:
Baltimore (8th ranked AL offense by EQA)
Cleveland (1st)
Tampa (12th)
Kansas City (13th)
Seattle (9th)

By the BP Quality of batter faced report he ranks 74th out of 134 in the AL using his 30 odd innings as the qualifier.

Such a small sample size I would infer nothing, just thought it was interesting.

If there is a division to be a rookie in it's the AL West: (EQA rank) Texas 7th, Seattle 9th, Anaheim 11th, Oakland 14th.

[DeToxRox]

As I said in the Cards win thread

Baseball Tonight announces the Angels deal Jeff Weaver to St. Louis for a Minor League Outfielder.

How'd they convince Jocketty to take this mess?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DeToxRoxDVHStyle

As I said in the Cards win thread

Baseball Tonight announces the Angels deal Jeff Weaver to St. Louis for a Minor League Outfielder.

How'd they convince Jocketty to take this mess?

I'm certain we'repicking up the tab on Jeff's contract.

Plus, he's a solid inning-eater who is a better second half pitcher and better in the NL. You don't want him on the mound in too many pressure situations, but he's a decent enough guy to have in reserve for your rotation when you're paying him the league minimum, and give up an okay outfield prospect (I am assuming the prospect will be some midlevel player with not much upside).

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm certain we'repicking up the tab on Jeff's contract.

Plus, he's a solid inning-eater who is a better second half pitcher and better in the NL. You don't want him on the mound in too many pressure situations, but he's a decent enough guy to have in reserve for your rotation when you're paying him the league minimum, and give up an okay outfield prospect (I am assuming the prospect will be some midlevel player with not much upside).

If they get the Weaver on Detroit, they'll be fine. Unfortunatley something went off inside him and he's just nowhere near the bulldog mentality he had here.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

(I am assuming the prospect will be some midlevel player with not much upside).

Good assumption since St. Louis has no outfielders with upside in their system .

St. Louis needs someone to take a turn every fifth day, that is Weaver's specialty.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

When all is said and done, the Giants-Twins deal may have that beat. Nathan already is a star.

Just a bit OT, but isn't Joe Nathan yet another in the line of "grab a mediocre starter who has the right mental makeup and he makes a really good closer"?

SI

[Chief Rum]

Just another start, of course, but Weaver threw seven scoreless innings tonight to get his sixth win in six starts. His ERA is now 1.12.

It did come against the offensively inept A's, though.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Just another start, of course, but Weaver threw seven scoreless innings tonight to get his sixth win in six starts. His ERA is now 1.12.

It did come against the offensively inept A's, though.

As it stands now, Zach Miner is about to win his 6th straight. The unhearled rookie of the Tigers staff could be 6-1 if we can hold Seattle scoreless for two more innings.

Thank you Kyle Farnsworth.

[dawgfan]

Jered wins his 8th decision today. Out of curiousity, I checked out his stats over at the Hardball Times website. Very interesting results...

We know certain things about Jered from traditional stats - he hasn't walked many people so far and has a good strikeout ratio - both very positive signs for future success. He's also an extreme flyball pitcher, with a ridiculously low 29.2% groundball ratio - not as good, as a certain percentage of flyballs tend to drift over the wall for homeruns, and you get a much lower number of groundball double-plays.

Now, flyball pitchers can survive if they don't put too many people on base, and Weaver's low walk and high strikeout rates help this, as does his high flyball percentage (less flyballs tend to drop for hits than groundballs).

But a big reason for Weaver's dominance so far is his homerun percentage off of fly balls. Research has shown that flyballs tend to go for homeruns about 11-12% of the time, and that pitchers really don't have much control over this figure. Weaver's figure so far this season (and these figures are adjusted for home parks) is an incredibly low 3.7%. In other words, he's given up about 1/3 of the number of homeruns that his flyball rate would normally yield. This is the primary reason that his xFIP number according to the Hardball Times is 4.77, a long ways away from his 2.20 ERA going in to today's game.

What this means is that while there are reasons to think he could continue to be a good pitcher, a lot of his success so far this year is due to good luck with fly balls staying in the yard. When this trend starts reverting towards the norm, expect to see some rougher outings for Weaver and his ERA to climb.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Jered wins his 8th decision today. Out of curiousity, I checked out his stats over at the Hardball Times website. Very interesting results...

We know certain things about Jered from traditional stats - he hasn't walked many people so far and has a good strikeout ratio - both very positive signs for future success. He's also an extreme flyball pitcher, with a ridiculously low 29.2% groundball ratio - not as good, as a certain percentage of flyballs tend to drift over the wall for homeruns, and you get a much lower number of groundball double-plays.

Now, flyball pitchers can survive if they don't put too many people on base, and Weaver's low walk and high strikeout rates help this, as does his high flyball percentage (less flyballs tend to drop for hits than groundballs).

But a big reason for Weaver's dominance so far is his homerun percentage off of fly balls. Research has shown that flyballs tend to go for homeruns about 11-12% of the time, and that pitchers really don't have much control over this figure. Weaver's figure so far this season (and these figures are adjusted for home parks) is an incredibly low 3.7%. In other words, he's given up about 1/3 of the number of homeruns that his flyball rate would normally yield. This is the primary reason that his xFIP number according to the Hardball Times is 4.77, a long ways away from his 2.20 ERA going in to today's game.

What this means is that while there are reasons to think he could continue to be a good pitcher, a lot of his success so far this year is due to good luck with fly balls staying in the yard. When this trend starts reverting towards the norm, expect to see some rougher outings for Weaver and his ERA to climb.

Heh heh it kills you to give him any credit, doesn't it?

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh heh it kills you to give him any credit, doesn't it?

Not at all. But when you crunch all the numbers and what they mean, as an Angels fan you should realize that he's been benefitting from some luck so far and is unlikely to continue to get results as good as he has been - when those fly balls start flying over the fence at a normal rate (or if he starts having some bad luck and they fly out at a higher than normal rate) his results are going to start looking a lot more like his brother's.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

...his results are going to start looking a lot more like his brother's.

Hey now, let's not say hurtful things we can't take back

SI

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh heh it kills you to give him any credit, doesn't it?

I saw today's game. He was pretty good, but that fly ball rate is still a huge red flag to me.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Not at all. But when you crunch all the numbers and what they mean, as an Angels fan you should realize that he's been benefitting from some luck so far and is unlikely to continue to get results as good as he has been - when those fly balls start flying over the fence at a normal rate (or if he starts having some bad luck and they fly out at a higher than normal rate) his results are going to start looking a lot more like his brother's.

While I like Weaver, I agree with this -- and then some. Another factor often argued to be beyond the pitcher's control is "% of balls in play that go for hits" -- and a normal figure there is about 30%. (This is separable from HR balls - those aren't "in play" for this calculation) Weaver has enjoyed a rate of 25% this year -- not staggeringly lucky, but another case of things just breaking his way, for whatever reason.

Based on the components of his performance this year within his control, he probably would be expected to have an ERA around 3.3-3.5 or so. It's been mostly luck -- balls flying into gloves, fly balls dying at the warning track -- that has it so much lower than that.

Nice pitcher, sure. This good, not really.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

While I like Weaver, I agree with this -- and then some. Another factor often argued to be beyond the pitcher's control is "% of balls in play that go for hits" -- and a normal figure there is about 30%. (This is separable from HR balls - those aren't "in play" for this calculation) Weaver has enjoyed a rate of 25% this year -- not staggeringly lucky, but another case of things just breaking his way, for whatever reason.

Based on the components of his performance this year within his control, he probably would be expected to have an ERA around 3.3-3.5 or so. It's been mostly luck -- balls flying into gloves, fly balls dying at the warning track -- that has it so much lower than that.

Nice pitcher, sure. This good, not really.

Woah - so you're saying he's not going to go undefeated in his career?

[QuikSand]

Well, if you project this out...

[sterlingice]

Ok, so he's 8-0 across about 2.5 months of the season so let's just call him good for 10 wins every half season for 20 per season. So, he'll only get 14 this year. He's only 24, and will be 25 in October so that means he'll have a good 15, maybe 18 seasons left in him, depending on how he holds up. So that means he'll be somewhere between 314-0 and 374-0 in his career. Damn, he's good.

SI

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Ok, so he's 8-0 across about 2.5 months of the season so let's just call him good for 10 wins every half season for 20 per season. So, he'll only get 14 this year. He's only 24, and will be 25 in October so that means he'll have a good 15, maybe 18 seasons left in him, depending on how he holds up. So that means he'll be somewhere between 314-0 and 374-0 in his career. Damn, he's good.

SI

so despite going undeated, he still might not win as many as clemens? meh.

[SuperGrover]

I guess I'm just sick of the Mariners being shoved down my throat here when I'm a Tigers fan.

Evidently, considering you said you'd rather have a relief pitcher over one of the best pitching prospects in years. the guy is pitching just fine...and he's 20. If he doesn't get hurt he's going to be very good. As it is, he's better than league average...all he needs to do is cut down on his HRs.

Weaver has been very good, but he does give up a ton of flyballs. That is somehwat of a warning sign, but everything else screams success. However, he is not near Liriano's or Hernandez's talent level.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

While I like Weaver, I agree with this -- and then some. Another factor often argued to be beyond the pitcher's control is "% of balls in play that go for hits" -- and a normal figure there is about 30%. (This is separable from HR balls - those aren't "in play" for this calculation) Weaver has enjoyed a rate of 25% this year -- not staggeringly lucky, but another case of things just breaking his way, for whatever reason.

Based on the components of his performance this year within his control, he probably would be expected to have an ERA around 3.3-3.5 or so. It's been mostly luck -- balls flying into gloves, fly balls dying at the warning track -- that has it so much lower than that.

Nice pitcher, sure. This good, not really.

This I agree with. Projecting him out to end up with numbers like his brother is going over the top, IMO.

Everyone knows Weaver isn't going to end up with a 2.00 ERA every year. I don't think there is any pitcher who has seen significant action who has as good as a career 2.00 ERA, and if there is, it is probably some dead ball era pitcher or from the 19th century.

3.3 to 3.5 ERA is about what I was thinking he would end up at, some years a little higher in the 3s. Likely hardly ever below 3, maybe a year or two. He has the look of a very solid pitcher, and if he ends up with numbers like that, it would be a fit for an ace or good #2 for most teams in baseball, even if he might never actually break into any Top 10 pitchers in baseball lists.

The problem I have with the "luck" factors being thrown out is when does it stop being luck? He has 150 IP between majors and minors (and the minors were played in a homer-heavy PCL), and his numbers still haven't deviated for this. His numbers in college are also strikingly similar (in parallel, I mean, high strikeouts, low walks, hits, homeruns, etc.).

Has anyone considered there might be something to Weaver that makes him resistant to these luck factors? My theory is that he gets a lot of movement on his pitches, particularly late movement, and that combines with his deceptive delivery to cause problems for hitters trying to square up on his pitches. If it's hard to make good contact on the ball, it's hard to hit it with enough force to get it out of the park, and also to reach the holes in the defense before the fielders close the gaps. I have watched most of his starts, and I don't see too many hard hit balls off of him. I have also seen him make some pretty good contact hitters look very foolish simply trying to hit his fastball, which tops out at, what, 93-94?

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This I agree with. Projecting him out to end up with numbers like his brother is going over the top, IMO.

Jeff was a pretty good pitcher for a while there (throwing out the Yankee years).

3.3 to 3.5 ERA is about what I was thinking he would end up at, some years a little higher in the 3s. Likely hardly ever below 3, maybe a year or two. He has the look of a very solid pitcher, and if he ends up with numbers like that, it would be a fit for an ace or good #2 for most teams in baseball, even if he might never actually break into any Top 10 pitchers in baseball lists.

That may happen, but his xFIP prior to today's start was at 4.77. Now, that number isn't a perfect analog to actual ERA numbers, but it's fairly close, and it does a much better job of predicting future ERA than current ERA since it is measuring the outcomes a pitcher has control over. The big disperity between his xFIP and his ERA is as I noted earlier - his remarkably small percentage of fly balls that have gone for home runs. Another factor is one that Quik pointed out - the percentage of balls put in play against him that have gone for hits is a fair amount lower than is normal. Some of this might simply reflect above-average fielding behind him, but over time these things tend to level out to the norm.

The problem I have with the "luck" factors being thrown out is when does it stop being luck? He has 150 IP between majors and minors (and the minors were played in a homer-heavy PCL), and his numbers still haven't deviated for this. His numbers in college are also strikingly similar (in parallel, I mean, high strikeouts, low walks, hits, homeruns, etc.).

Has anyone considered there might be something to Weaver that makes him resistant to these luck factors? My theory is that he gets a lot of movement on his pitches, particularly late movement, and that combines with his deceptive delivery to cause problems for hitters trying to square up on his pitches. If it's hard to make good contact on the ball, it's hard to hit it with enough force to get it out of the park, and also to reach the holes in the defense before the fielders close the gaps. I have watched most of his starts, and I don't see too many hard hit balls off of him. I have also seen him make some pretty good contact hitters look very foolish simply trying to hit his fastball, which tops out at, what, 93-94?

It stops being luck when there is a statistically significant amount of evidence to show that he is indeed an outlier and an exception to the rule. We're far, far short of that level of evidence.

What Weaver did in college is impressive, but it's not directly applicable to his Major League experience given the much wider disperity in talent at that level. As for his minor league numbers, two points:

- What he did last year wasn't as good as his stint in AAA this year - while he had great strikeout rates and very good walk rates, his ERA was 3.91 between High A and AA in 76 innings, partly because his HR rate appears to be more normal (8 HR allowed). I don't have detailed numbers from his time in the minors to see what his groundball/flyball ratio was or to figure out his HR pct. off of fly balls, but it appears his rate was much closer to normal. In his 77 IP this year in AAA, his ERA was fantastic at 2.10, but his HR rate again appeared to be more normal, with 7 HR allowed. Working in his favor was a phenomenal strikeout rate and very, very low walk rate;

- We're only talking about 153 IP total here in the minors - that hardly constitutes a significant enough body of work to eliminate the effects of random variation;

Now, as to whether he's truly unique in that he has some ability to limit HR allowed from fly balls, I would put big money in saying that he isn't. First off, as noted above, it doesn't look like he showed this trait in the minors - his HR rates appear much more normal. Secondly, I believe it's been established by sabermatricians that HR rate off of fly balls is not something that pitchers control - over time, rates always normalize around 11-12%.

Maybe Weaver has discovered some way previously undiscovered to keep fly balls from leaving the yard, but he's got a ton of statistical history working against him on this claim.

I'm not trying to bash Weaver by any means - he's got some definite plus traits working in his favor (high strikeout rate, low walk rate), he's fun to watch, and it's good for the game to see young pitchers come in and find success, especially considering how many crash and burn along the way.

I'm just pointing out that the number crunching seems to indicate that, if Weaver continues to pitch exactly as he has been, he's due to find his good fortune drifting away and seeing his ERA climb a fair amount. If he were to have 9 HR allowed in his first 65.1 IP (a normal figure given his very high fly ball rate) instead of his actual 3 HR allowed, his ERA would be quite a bit higher than it actually is.

My boy Felix probably was the beneficiary of some good fortune last season - given his performance this season, it's quite possible that his incredibly high groundball rate last year in his first season in the Majors is not a rate he will be able to maintain throughout his career. But in a lot of ways, he's had the opposite luck of Weaver. Prior to tonight, his percentage of HR allowed off of his fly balls was nearly 20%, quite a bit higher than the normal rate of 11-12% and monumentally higher than Weaver's 3.7% figure. This goes a long way towards explaining why his xFIP is 3.63 when his ERA was 4.29.

[Chief Rum]

But would he end up at around 3.5 ERA? Because that's about what we're all agreeing (so far) that he would likely end up at.

I look at those homerun numbers, and I know you have more fancy numbers than I do, but I see 7 minor league homeruns in 77 IP, and the simple math tells me about 20 HRs in 230 IP--and that's the area you said was more normal to what you expect to see. I think that's pretty acceptable personally, where pitchers who lead the league in homeruns are usually in the 30s or more aren't they?

That homerun rate is pretty close to what he did last year as well, although I'll say again that you should just completely throw out last year (good and bad), because he had taken a year off from pitching and was trying to get back into form in June. By the time he would be expected to round into form (July at the earliest), the season was almost over (and then he got promoted).

I won't rehash some of the reasons I think Weaver might be a bit better than the xFIP you have shown; they're in the posts above in this thread. I am just happy that, so far anyway, he is proving those numbers wrong and I hope he continues to do so.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The problem I have with the "luck" factors being thrown out is when does it stop being luck? He has 150 IP between majors and minors (and the minors were played in a homer-heavy PCL), and his numbers still haven't deviated for this. His numbers in college are also strikingly similar (in parallel, I mean, high strikeouts, low walks, hits, homeruns, etc.).

Has anyone considered there might be something to Weaver that makes him resistant to these luck factors? My theory is that he gets a lot of movement on his pitches, particularly late movement, and that combines with his deceptive delivery to cause problems for hitters trying to square up on his pitches. If it's hard to make good contact on the ball, it's hard to hit it with enough force to get it out of the park, and also to reach the holes in the defense before the fielders close the gaps. I have watched most of his starts, and I don't see too many hard hit balls off of him. I have also seen him make some pretty good contact hitters look very foolish simply trying to hit his fastball, which tops out at, what, 93-94?

Actually, in his last two minor league stints, he had very normal a hit % -- about 33% in AA in 2005, and about 31% in AAA this year, while posting solid ERA figures. Let's not get carried away and start suggesting that we've found the one guy who blows away the entire trend. Some things just appear to be largely out of the pitcher's hands... and there's an overwhelming body of evidence that the pitcher's job is basically to keep balls out of play and in the park. The share of pitchers who become even slight aberrations in this regard is very modest -- the number who merit an adjustment from 30% to 25% or something along those lines is inconsequential.

There's nothing at all alarming about a projection for next year that might suggest this is a 3.75 ERA pitcher, or even a bit higher. He seems to be wearing down this year already with 138 IP under his belt -- his strikeout rate has been plummeting, and we are seeing him struggle more and more (until last night's gem) -- that's not a terribly encouraging sign for a full-duty SP in the big leagues, either.

A guy worth protecting, but he's also not turning water into wine or anything before our eyes.

[Chief Rum]

Well, he apparently has some ongoing biceps tendinitis (he missed a couple starts in July to rest it), and he hasn't pitched as many innings as he has this year since college more than two years ago (and actually, I'm not even sure he pitched as much as this then). That and the normal learning curve for rookies (advance scouting reports on him) probably contribute quite a bit to the recent struggles.

The only game recently where he was really struggling the whole game was the Texas game a couple weeks ago. He went into Boston and only allowed three runs to that offense, before the pen blew the potential record-tying eighth straight win he would have had. He shutout the Indians last week until the sixth, when they finally got to him with a homerun and a some hard liners for four runs (Scoscia left him in at least one batter too long; I was screaming at the TV for the manager to make a move).

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I look at those homerun numbers, and I know you have more fancy numbers than I do, but I see 7 minor league homeruns in 77 IP, and the simple math tells me about 20 HRs in 230 IP--and that's the area you said was more normal to what you expect to see. I think that's pretty acceptable personally, where pitchers who lead the league in homeruns are usually in the 30s or more aren't they?

That homerun rate is pretty close to what he did last year as well, although I'll say again that you should just completely throw out last year (good and bad), because he had taken a year off from pitching and was trying to get back into form in June. By the time he would be expected to round into form (July at the earliest), the season was almost over (and then he got promoted).

Here's the problem with the minor league numbers - unless there's a resource I'm unaware of, we simply don't have more advanced stats from his minor league time that would give us his groundball/flyball ratio, so it's difficult to tell if he also had a favorable home run from flyball ratio in the minors.

Given his current rate of fly balls allowed so far in the Majors, if he had a normal home run percentage off of fly balls he'd have given up about 10 HR instead of 4, and projected over 230 IP that would be 31 HR allowed.

Now, it could be that his extreme flyball rate will also normalize over time; if that's the case, even if his homerun percentage normalizes, it could be counteracted some by a reduction in the overall number of fly balls.

It's the extreme fly ball rate that has people like me and lynchjim et al concerned about his future prospects.

[dawgfan]

Thought I'd update this since Jered has had a few games under his belt this year.

His HR rate on fly balls normalized before the end of last year, but his ERA remained quite a bit better than his peripherals would suggest. This can be explained by his rate of hits yielded on balls in play and his left on base percentage.

In the former, he allowed a batting average of .246 on balls in play. As we know from DIPS theory, pitchers have very little control over this; the rate normalizes around .300, with variation due to the defensive skill of the fielders involved as well as random variation/luck, so Jered was benefiting from some fortune here.

Also, his LOB% was 86.2%. Again, this is a trait that research shows to be much more attributable to luck than to skill. Most pitchers LOB% falls between 70-80% in a given year.

Fast forward to this year: his "true outcome" stats (the ones he has the most control over - K rate, BB rate, ground ball rate) remain much the same, but his results have been much worse. Why? Is he not as good a pitcher this year? Not really - it's just that luck is working against him so far. After 3 starts, his batting average on balls in play was 33.3%, and is LOB% was startlingly low at 54.9%.

Just like his numbers last year were improved by good luck, so far this year his numbers are hurt by bad luck.

[Chief Rum]

Not denying your points or the stats you quote, but it's way too early. We're talking about a player who has just four starts so far, came off an injury and is essentially wrapping up his "spring training" right about now. I would wait until the All Star break or so before really giving his stats the once over. It would be much more statistically relevant then.

[dawgfan]

Sure, but there's still enough evidence to show that he's been unlucky so far and hasn't pitched as bad as his ERA would seem to indicate. What we really don't know yet is what to expect from his 'true outcome' stats - will his K rate remain as high as last year? Will his BB rate remain low? Will his fly ball rate remain extremely high? Those are the things in question.

[dawgfan]

Dola - THT has updated their stats from last night's games. Weaver's DER (the percentage of balls in play turned into outs) is at .639. Last year, he was at .764. The norm is roughly .700 (depending on the quality of the defense behind you), so thus far this year Jered has been as unfortunate in this category as he was fortunate last year. That 5.12 ERA is not indicative of the quality of his pitching so far this year...

[dawgfan]

Several years on, thought it would be interesting to update this thread.

Statistical analysis has continued to advance, and while much of the original DIPs theory holds true, we know more about outliers and the extent to which certain types of pitchers are able to "beat" their DIPs predicted outcomes. Chris Young is a poster-child for this, but Jered Weaver falls into this category. He's posted better than average BABIP numbers due to his extreme fly ball nature, but he's also shown an ability to limit the damage from those fly balls as the rate of fly balls going for home runs has stayed relatively low.

It's interesting to chart the path for both pitchers. Felix struggled a bit to harness his terrific stuff early in his career, but despite his loss of velocity (from mid 95mph range as a rookie to about 92 now) he's retained outstanding movement and refined his control and is clearly one of the top pitchers in the game.

Weaver has also been very successful, also while battling a loss in velocity (from 90mph to 86mph). His greatest success came in 2011-2012, years where he significantly out-performed his peripherals. He's slipped a touch since then, with small changes in his peripherals seeming to add up: a small drop in K rate, a small increase in walk rate, a small increase in the number of fly balls going for home runs, a small increase in balls in play dropping in for hits. You have to wonder though if his margin for error is razor-thin at this point - if his velocity drops into the 85 or 84mph range, can he still generate enough swings and misses and poor contact to remain a very good pitcher?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Several years on, thought it would be interesting to update this thread.

Statistical analysis has continued to advance, and while much of the original DIPs theory holds true, we know more about outliers and the extent to which certain types of pitchers are able to "beat" their DIPs predicted outcomes. Chris Young is a poster-child for this, but Jered Weaver falls into this category. He's posted better than average BABIP numbers due to his extreme fly ball nature, but he's also shown an ability to limit the damage from those fly balls as the rate of fly balls going for home runs has stayed relatively low.

It's interesting to chart the path for both pitchers. Felix struggled a bit to harness his terrific stuff early in his career, but despite his loss of velocity (from mid 95mph range as a rookie to about 92 now) he's retained outstanding movement and refined his control and is clearly one of the top pitchers in the game.

Weaver has also been very successful, also while battling a loss in velocity (from 90mph to 86mph). His greatest success came in 2011-2012, years where he significantly out-performed his peripherals. He's slipped a touch since then, with small changes in his peripherals seeming to add up: a small drop in K rate, a small increase in walk rate, a small increase in the number of fly balls going for home runs, a small increase in balls in play dropping in for hits. You have to wonder though if his margin for error is razor-thin at this point - if his velocity drops into the 85 or 84mph range, can he still generate enough swings and misses and poor contact to remain a very good pitcher?

I think Weaver now makes up for some of his growing shortfalls as he gets older by simply pitching smarter, knowing where he can push things and where he no longer can. He used to get by on a deceptive delivery which helped him have "sneaky" speed, and he always had good command. I agree that his margin for error is very small now, so you will see less dominant performances and more clunkers, but by and large he will probably be your "quality start" guy for another year or two (as in, he usually gets you the very low bar of a quality start and gives you a chance to win if you have the offense to capitalize--as the Angels do). After that, though, I'm not sure how long he will be able to keep it going.

King Felix is just terrific. Much like Weaver, he is now a much smarter pitcher than he was before. Whereas Weaver always was a pretty solid command pitcher, King Felix went from young hurler to really developing that command. Combine that with greater physical attributes and stuff and just a terrific mentality on the mound, it is easy to see why he is pretty much the most dominant pitcher in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw. He is still fairly young, too, so I suspect he will keep this going for quite a while yet.

[QuikSand]

I was just terrified to see that I actually commented in this thread. I at least feel okay with what I said back then.