WW XCI: Office Space, the TPS Edition - GAME OVER - Insiders Win

[Danny]

Here's some updated vote Analysis

Day 1

Hoopsguy 6 - PurdueBrad (115), The Jackal (165), Chief Rum (284), claphamsa (285), Schmidty (345), Lathum (356)
claphamsa 5 - Passacaglia (158), Danny (181), Autumn (222), Abe Sargent (251). lerriuqs (294)
Abe Sargent 2 - Barkeep49 (109), USFLTecmo (139)
cartman 2 - MartinD (164), dubb93 (184)
The Jackal 1 - hoopsguy (108)
lerriuqs 1 - cartman (167)
Schmidty 1 - Poli (217)

[Danny]

Day 3

cartman 6 - Autumn (692), Barkeep49 (796), USFLTecmo (801), Chief Rum (834). lerriuqs (842), Abe Sargent (873)
Barkeep49 3 - dubb93 (761), Poli (852), The Jackal (858)
Autumn 5 - cartman (780), Danny (800), MartinD (808), PurdueBrad (859), Lathum (879)

[Danny]

Day 4

Autumn 5 - Abe Sargent (989), Lathum (993), PurdueBrad (996), Poli (1098), USFLTecmo (1132)
Lathum 7 - Barkeep49 (1036), Danny (1075), Autumn (1086), dubb93 (1087), lerriuqs (1096), MartinD (1115), Chief Rum (1146)

[Abe Sargent]

See, it looks like lerriuqs's votes were for the people where there were a lot of undetermined votes still left. On Day One there were four on claphamsa, on Day Two,there were four on cartman and on Day 4 there were 5 on Lathum. It appears to me that they killed someone who would not give away vote analysis info.

[Abe Sargent]

That's clever.

[Danny]

Day 6

USFLTecmo 5 - Abe Sargent (1466), lerriuqs (1485), Danny (1489), Barkeep40 (1493), Dubb (1518)
Abe Sargent 4 - PuedueBrad (1475), dubb93 (1484), USFLTecmo (1491), Autumn (1501)[/color]

[Danny]

Keep in mind, that on day's 1, 3 and 4, there was no conversion, so there is only one unmarked wolf in those voted. Day three and four is tough to get a read from. The only thing that stands out to me is Day 1 where all wolves voted for different people and the only way that strategy could continue is if barkeep was a wolf. Otherwise two wolves voted for one person.

[Abe Sargent]

Thanks Danny, a big help.

I have a question, why not kill Autumn instead of lerriuqs. Many think he's been pseudo-cleared, and is on the lists in all of the right places too. My guess? They wanted to avoid PB.

However, not taking a shot at BK/PB/Autumn seems risky, since many think they are high on trust lists.

Makes me want to go back and evaluate if BK and Autumn deserve to be there. Of course, that could be what the wolves want.

Note the use of plural is meant for descriptive purposes only. There could be just one left, or two. Who knows?

I am likely to want to look at dubb/Danny tommorow as the only two players who are not part of the PB/BK/Autumn triumvirate or me.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Danny

Keep in mind, that on day's 1, 3 and 4, there was no conversion, so there is only one unmarked wolf in those voted. Day three and four is tough to get a read from. The only thing that stands out to me is Day 1 where all wolves voted for different people and the only way that strategy could continue is if barkeep was a wolf. Otherwise two wolves voted for one person.

Yup, I noted the BK thing too.

[Abe Sargent]

Course, it could all be a coincidence, but I think it's worth noting

[Abe Sargent]

You know how, late in the game, you go back and reassess your previous assumptions because you fear you've gone wrong somewhere? I'm feeling that right now.

For my sake, and his too, just as a reminder, can someone post the defense of BK and why he is up and up, including the late vote switch that I know got him some love.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I am likely to want to look at dubb/Danny tommorow as the only two players who are not part of the PB/BK/Autumn triumvirate or me.

Heck, we've been so wrong about the votes that I just rechecked my PM to make sure I was a villager . I think, all of us, except PB may be worth looking at. This next vote is very important, so I hope we have more activity than today.

[Autumn]

It's too late for me to ponder deeply on this. Right now I don't see any reason to not just keep on Abe. He got by in a squeaker today and maybe we just had the wrong one at the end.

For now...

VOTE ABE

I should be around plenty tomorrow to reexamine this.

[Abe Sargent]

I understand the whole, we need to get info from lynching Abe cause it's been close several times. Unfortunately, i think it's too late to take shots just for info and hope. We need to suss this out. I think we can do it, but we need substantionally more conversation that we had yesterday

[PurdueBrad]

I'm following Autumn and sticking with my vote from today.

vote Abe

[PurdueBrad]

I'll be curious to see how this plays out but I'm getting an odd vibe from the Abe-Danny discussion above. This is the second time in two days that Abe has pinged me a bit. It's not a lot to go on but we'll see what happens with the rest of the group.

[dubb93]

I just can't shake my feeling I've had since day 2 that Barkeep is playing us for fools. Everytime I've voted elsewhere it has turned up a villager. Everytime I've voted Barkeep I've been unable to get the needed votes to lynch him.

[Abe Sargent]

Worst Case Scenarios for Everyone But Me and PB:

This is how, in my mind, each player can be a wolf. So me are more stretches than others:

Autumn - Biggest stretch, worked items twice to curry favor. Knew stapler may not or would not kill attackjer but just wound them.

BTW, if Autumn is right, then that means we had two wolves in order ot have a kill last night. one wounded ,so the other kille.d That means wer are rocking 4-2 right now and if you kill wrongly today, 3-2, and then without a BG block, 2-2 and game.

So let's not just vote and leave. We cannot afford drive by voting today. One third of comments left by people may be by wolves, we have to figure this out and we can ill afford to screw around.

BK - Started out very helpful, then after he gained trust with votes, sort of fell off the in the background. Constantly pulls a Columbo - what's that again, what does that say, etc. Sneaky wolf and smart enough to know he needed to leave someone like Lathum in the game in order to avoid suspicion. BK is a very good wolf and would happily feed a wolf to the crowd in order to further the wolf agenda.

dubb - The most UTR player we have and look at the strategy pulled off by the wolves. MartinD and Poli were both very utr. They were only found because our roles did them in. We would never have been able to have amassed a majority vote against either one except with overwhelming evidence, which we had in the case of MartinD. With that record, dubb has been very quiet, and posts very little. Of the 6 of us, he is the least involved.

Danny - Very helpful, almost hoopsguy-ish. Gives us a lot of info. THis is a great place for a wolf to hide, perfect wolf in sheep's clothing. Note that I suspect lerriuqs was killed because of Danny's vote analysis as I mentione dbefore. Who knows it the best? Danny, who compiled it, using the very helpful evidence to the village he compiles against us.


Anyways, those are my final thoughts for the night, and my darkest scenarios of how the wolves are hiding. UTR, in the open, deceit to get trust then hide, used items for trust - those are my four potentials to find the final one or two wolves. Based on Autumn's info, that leads me to suspect two wolves, which makes today the final day barring an BG block if we fail.

We simply cannot vote and move, vote and leave the thread for other things. We have to figure this out.

[dubb93]

Abe early on I will buy I was UTR but I have not been UTR the last few days. Least involved? Says who? You? I would argue I have been more involved the last couple of days then even you have Abe. Inflated post counts from the first few days aren't everything.

[dubb93]

I guess if you want more against Autumn you could say that he tied up CR on a night when the wolves did not attack him according to both of them. He also passed a stapler to CR the day CR died. The way he was talking in thread you would have thought it unwise to attack CR that night. Maybe Autumn knew different?

[dubb93]

I have to get a vote in tonight as I will be in and out tomarrow with work.

Vote Barkeep

I just keep getting a bad feeling about him.

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, looking back at everything, if we had to make two last plays, I'm completely switching out. I think we get BK, we get Lumburgh.

unvote Abe
vote Barkeep, final answer

[PurdueBrad]

Abe verbalized something that had been rubbing me wrong for most of the game and that was the Lathum lynch. There were three votes on Autumn and then, in a span of 60 posts, Lathum picked up five votes to go from 0-3 to a 5-3 lead. With Poli and Martin D throwing in late votes, I would assume at least one wolf went out there early with a vote, especially since the wolves knew it was villager-villager (assuming Autumn is good). If we're going down today, then I will go all in on Barkeep.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

BK - Started out very helpful, then after he gained trust with votes, sort of fell off the in the background. Constantly pulls a Columbo - what's that again, what does that say, etc. Sneaky wolf and smart enough to know he needed to leave someone like Lathum in the game in order to avoid suspicion. BK is a very good wolf and would happily feed a wolf to the crowd in order to further the wolf agenda.

1. I tend not to be a very good wolf, so I dispute that assertion. Not saying I'm bad, but "very good" overstates my abilities.
2. On a more factual matter, by sort of fell off into the background you mean I only posted a couple times, yesterday, right? Because I'm not sure if you noticed, but I did a hell of a lot of analysis over the weekend, and this was after I was generally considered "cleared".

[Barkeep49]

Is there any solid evidence against me other than the idea that the wolves spread the vote around? Nothing I can do about that on Day 1, as I know I'm a villager and you all don't. But I'm wondering if there's something else, because it seems like there's a lot of momentum up against me and I'd like to quell it, since I'm not exactly fond of the idea of losing this game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Abe verbalized something that had been rubbing me wrong for most of the game and that was the Lathum lynch. There were three votes on Autumn and then, in a span of 60 posts, Lathum picked up five votes to go from 0-3 to a 5-3 lead. With Poli and Martin D throwing in late votes, I would assume at least one wolf went out there early with a vote, especially since the wolves knew it was villager-villager (assuming Autumn is good). If we're going down today, then I will go all in on Barkeep.

The exact same logic applies to Abe. Let's not forget that yesterday we nearly lynched the man and we came remarkable close on D1. The guy has been drawing lots of heat all game long. And before today what has he produced in the way of analysis? Bupkis. Today, however, with the wolf end game in sight he's suddenly willing to come out of the woodwork to make his play to seal the game. I think the answer of who to vote for instead of me today is obvious, and it's a play that in retrospect I obviously wish I had made yesterday:

Vote Abe

[PurdueBrad]

BK, I definitely understand that the same logic applies to him. I have three people in mind, you, Abe, or Danny again. If we're going to lose this game, I'm going to take a chance on one of you three before we do.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

BK, I definitely understand that the same logic applies to him. I have three people in mind, you, Abe, or Danny again. If we're going to lose this game, I'm going to take a chance on one of you three before we do.

Fair enough. But why me over Abe? Danny I can understand, since if he's a wolf he's managed to avoid attention all game long. But Abe has been in the crosshairs time and time again. Why pick me over him?

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

1. I tend not to be a very good wolf, so I dispute that assertion. Not saying I'm bad, but "very good" overstates my abilities.
2. On a more factual matter, by sort of fell off into the background you mean I only posted a couple times, yesterday, right? Because I'm not sure if you noticed, but I did a hell of a lot of analysis over the weekend, and this was after I was generally considered "cleared".

It was the job of that post to build a case against everybody, including yourself and dubb who may have protested my claims, but hey, we're getting conversation! I've seen games where the last two days can all be on the same page. So I like it!

[Abe Sargent]

Seriously, why not dubb? Every argument that everyone cam make for anyone can be made for dubb. Of the 6 of us left, dubb contributed teh least over the span of this game, and I'm not just talking post count. Are we sersiouly going to allow a relatively quiet veteran to get all the way through the game without any suspicion? I just don't get that.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The exact same logic applies to Abe. Let's not forget that yesterday we nearly lynched the man and we came remarkable close on D1. The guy has been drawing lots of heat all game long. And before today what has he produced in the way of analysis? Bupkis. Today, however, with the wolf end game in sight he's suddenly willing to come out of the woodwork to make his play to seal the game. I think the answer of who to vote for instead of me today is obvious, and it's a play that in retrospect I obviously wish I had made yesterday:

Vote Abe

I call BS on your detector. I was the only person to post a trust circle or trust list days ago, no one followed suit. How is that not trying to help and get people involved, talking, and information out there? How is that not helping with analysis?

[PurdueBrad]

I've always kind of questioned the practice of sacrificing a person based on participation or contribution. More often than not, it leads us to offing a villager and then saying, "ahhh, they weren't that useful." We're not at a point I want to do that and, frankly, dubb has increased his activity as well.

BK, I'm still going back and forth on where I'm putting this vote but really, it's the Lathum vote for me right now. The run that started once you posted your vote, when it was 3-0 at that point I believe for Autumn. Then you vote Lathum and a run ensues that lynches a villager. And yeah, we're assuming Autumn is a villager and he would've been lynched otherwise but the runaway after you introduced Lathum is enough for me, right now anyway, to keep my vote where it's at.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm honestly sitting here thinking that this is one of those games that if I wasn't involved in it, I could probably nail the wolves. In fact, I'm sure several people are saying, "I can't believe they don't see that ________ is a wolf!" The fact that I'm in it is giving me tunnel vision I'm sure. I know we're missing something obvious.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm going to pose some questions, if they are to you, please answer.

Dubb, why vote for Cartman day 1 but then not when he is a candidate on day 3?

[PurdueBrad]

Danny, how do you explain your second vote on known or assumed good guys (Autumn) three times in the first four days?

[PurdueBrad]

And I'm going to move again, just because I can.

unvote Barkeep
vote Danny

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

In fact, I'm sure several people are saying, "I can't believe they don't see that ________ is a wolf!" The fact that I'm in it is giving me tunnel vision I'm sure. I know we're missing something obvious.

I say that in every game regardless if I play or don't play.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Danny, how do you explain your second vote on known or assumed good guys (Autumn) three times in the first four days?

I'll wake up a little more and then answer that

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Danny, how do you explain your second vote on known or assumed good guys (Autumn) three times in the first four days?

The fact that the vote was on a good guy means nothing since all of us have been voting good guys all game as far as we know. My second vote is because all game, like every game I play. I have been trying to keep the vote close so that we have more analysis available to us. The fact that it was 2nd as opposed to 3rd, it just worked out that way. I did the same thing on day 4 before my vote for Autumn. I was also the second vote on Lerriuqs on day 4 before a bunch of people piled on after me. At the time, I thought that meant something and i did not like it, so I switched my vote. If all three of those players were villagers, and I knew that, why would I have cared? If we had a known wolf or two in there, my strategy would have worked out much better.

[Danny]

When I talked about day 4, Autumn in there should read Lathum

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Is there any solid evidence against me other than the idea that the wolves spread the vote around? Nothing I can do about that on Day 1, as I know I'm a villager and you all don't. But I'm wondering if there's something else, because it seems like there's a lot of momentum up against me and I'd like to quell it, since I'm not exactly fond of the idea of losing this game.

I think there is a solid, but not great case against almost all of us. Right now, my vote is leaning towards you, but that's mostly because of gut feeling.

[Danny]

And I know it sounds strange, but the fact Barkeep is the only person who actually voted a known wolf all game and has a vote from a known wolf does not sit well with me. As a wolf, you want something like that in play, especially with so many wolves in general where if something happens and you happen to lose one to gain trust, it's ends up being worth it.

[PurdueBrad]

At this point, assuming that Autumn and I can be trusted, we have 2 wolves and 2 villagers left, giving us equal shots of earning an extra day as screwing the pooch. It's going to be an interesting evening as I'm likely to keep moving my vote around throughout.

[PurdueBrad]

Danny, where are you likely to vote today?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

BK, I'm still going back and forth on where I'm putting this vote but really, it's the Lathum vote for me right now. The run that started once you posted your vote, when it was 3-0 at that point I believe for Autumn. Then you vote Lathum and a run ensues that lynches a villager. And yeah, we're assuming Autumn is a villager and he would've been lynched otherwise but the runaway after you introduced Lathum is enough for me, right now anyway, to keep my vote where it's at.

Let me suggest an alternative flow of events. There was an early rush of people who felt he was guilty. These people either didn't quite understand items or felt he was claiming to be the BG. Then there were several other people who didn't quite feel Autumn was guilty. When I put the vote out there for Lathum those who believed Autumn's story had an alternative and took that alternative. I feel there is credibility to this flow of events simply because there was no unvoting that day. People either believed Autumn or they didn't and cast their votes accordingly. Which is not to say people weren't suspicious of Lathum, they were, and that's why he was a credible alternative to Autumn.

[Autumn]

To my mind the suspects are dubb, Danny and Abe. I felt that Lerriuqs and Barkeep were likely villagers based on how the wolves had voted, and last night only confirmed that.

Out of those three, Dubb93 is clearly the most UTR, although no one's really UTR at this point. But he hasn't drawn a lot of attention, whereas Abe has been tossed around as a target a lot and Danny has at least gotten some talk his way.

I'm going to look at the voting records some more.

[Autumn]

Looking through the thread dubb93 strikes me as least suspicious of these three. I'm going between Danny and Abe then. Since Abe gets a lot of attention on his own, for the moment I'm going to put the heat on DAnny.

VOTE DANNY

[Autumn]

Oops, broken code

UNVOTE ABE
VOTE DANNY

[Danny]

Current vote count

Danny 2 (PurdueBrad, Autumn)
Abe 1 (Barkeep)
Barkeep 1 (Dubb)

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Danny, where are you likely to vote today?

I'm not voting for you or Autumn, so that brings it down to Dubb, Abe and Barkeep. I am the most suspicious of Barkeep right now with Dubb and Abe behind him. I've said this from early on in the game, but my gut has told me Abe is a villager. Dubb, I really don't have a read on either way, but with two wolves that would mean even if Barkeep is a wolf, that either Abe or Dubb is as well. My guess is Barkeep was the original wolf and one of those two the convert.

My thinking for Barkeep is that his day 1 voting follows along perfectly with the known wolves. And as I said, his vote for a wolf and a wolf for him strike me as a very suspicious. Barkeep is a good enough player to know it's worth putting that vote there to gain trust even with the slight risk of a wolf lynch. His pushing for MartinD also came at a time where other candidates were likely going to be more popular choices, so it was a pretty safe way to vote for a wolf.

Still, I do want to see how everyone responds for the rest of this day. So far my gut has not done a good job, so I am seeing what comes out of the next several hours.