POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Well, we were warned about the impending apocalypse last week when the Cubs won.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Georgia to Trump per Fox News.

[tarcone]

Michigan

[sabotai]

On the bright side, for either side, regardless of who wins, I'm almost certain the next President will end up being a 1 term President. I don't see how either turns their "unlikable" numbers around and the other side just has to run someone who is likable and will probably win.

[CrescentMoonie]

Is there a reason why CNN hasn't called Georgia for Trump yet?

[sabotai]

Last time Clinton was in Wisconsin was in April.

[Scarecrow]

2 Paths to President Trump:

1. Michigan
2. NH + AZ + AK

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Is there a reason why CNN hasn't called Georgia for Trump yet?

CNN has been super slow to call quite a few states tonight.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

CNN has been super slow to call quite a few states tonight.

Pretty sure Google called it over an hour ago.

[Butter]

NYT is projecting NH to Clinton. If that happens and she wins Nevada and Michigan, it's a fuckin' tie. Assuming Pennsylvania also.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

CNN has been super slow to call quite a few states tonight.

Lots of people still remember what happened in 2000.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Butter

NYT is projecting NH to Clinton. If that happens and she wins Nevada and Michigan, it's a fuckin' tie.

Which is still a loss for Clinton.

[molson]

Interesting to see who got this the most wrong. The Huffington Post and PredictWise models had Clinton at 98%+

2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President? - The New York Times

[JonInMiddleGA]

Still feeling cruel joke outcome at the very end,possibly even with a "called" state being flipped.

No,I'm not suggesting corrupt shenanigans.
I might be suggesting I feel a little "drama enhancement" by networks hoping to retain viewers.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Lots of people still remember what happened in 2000.

Agreed.

And I don't blame CNN one iota for taking their time. The outcome doesn't change based on any timestamp.

[EagleFan]

So many mixed emotions. Can't stand him at all but hate her with a passion. It would be like watching the Patriots beat the Cowboys in the super bowl.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

You know this was expected, right? This was an indicator of who would win. It will be a buyers market tomorrow.

I've got some cash sitting in my brokerage account. Any suggestions on what I should by besides the S&P index?

[EagleFan]

PA is getting tighter but not sure if enough votes left to flip that one. Michigan is getting close, that one could turn.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by King of New York

Thinking ahead some more: does a Trump win embolden the Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives to revolt against and depose Ryan?

Funny you should say that. Sean Hannity was just on Fox News and said there was 'no way' that Ryan retains his speaker of the House position.

[QuikSand]

So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.

Welcome to the conversation

[PilotMan]

I can't wait until the mass arrests of political and press opponents begin. Go 'merica!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.

Simply put, the 'deplorables' and white male electorate showed up in big numbers in response to the beating that they took from Clinton and her supporters. Also, they WAY overestimated the 'female candidate' effect on the female voters. It didn't come through for them like they thought it would.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I've got some cash sitting in my brokerage account. Any suggestions on what I should by besides the S&P index?

Not sure if you're joking or not, but this could be a silver lining for me. I've been waiting for a stumble in the S&P Index to put some money into an index fund (I didn't say I was being smart about it...that money should probably already be there). If it drops a good amount over the next day or two, it'll be time for me to pull the trigger on that.

[Ben E Lou]

This guy wins Twitter.

I'm calling for a complete and total shutdown of polling and punditry until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 9, 2016

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

PA is getting tighter but not sure if enough votes left to flip that one. Michigan is getting close, that one could turn.

36k separate them with 87% in...and the liberal stronghold of Philadelphia is just about all reported. Pittsburgh is only 25% in, though. It's going to tight.

[Ben E Lou]

MSNBC seems to hinting that the remaining PA votes are going to give it to Trump.

[molson]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Not sure if you're joking or not, but this could be a silver lining for me. I've been waiting for a stumble in the S&P Index to put some money into an index fund (I didn't say I was being smart about it...that money should probably already be there). If it drops a good amount over the next day or two, it'll be time for me to pull the trigger on that.

Could be, but I can't be the only one who is now planning on holding off on the new car purchase, delaying some home improvements, trying to save more money, wanting to see where things go. Of course if you're right, it's a bigger opportunity for you to cash in on my potentially irrational economic fear.

[Brian Swartz]

Wow. Trump has now edged into the lead in Pennsylvania.

[Butter]

As a Democrat, you know who I blame? Joe Biden. He wins this easily.

Rachel Maddow on MSNBC had appeared to about lose it a few times.

Trump is about to take Pennsylvania, it seems.

We're going to get to see what a total outsider governing looks like. As I heard someone mention recently, up until three years ago, Trump was a Democrat. So who the hell knows.

[EagleFan]

PA is only a 5K difference now. Didn't see that coming.

[molson]

Interesting that, according to 538, Clinton only got 65 percent among Latinos. Trump did much better than Romney did with Latinos. I'm having a hard time buying any polling, exit or otherwise, but we seem to have underestimated the number of Latinos who share Trumps views on Mexicans.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Canada's Immigration Site Keeps Crashing For Some Reason

Progressives don't want to go to Mexico? Why not?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by molson

Interesting that, according to 538, Clinton only got 65 percent among Latinos. Trump did much better than Romney did with Latinos. I'm having a hard time buying any polling, exit or otherwise, but we seem to have underestimated the number of Latinos who share Trumps views on Mexicans.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that they included Cuban-Americans in that numbers. Those voters actually voted for Trump more than Clinton. I think this is another clear example of where the models failed pretty badly, especially in Florida.

[Ben E Lou]

Trump has a legit shot at 300 EV.

[sabotai]

Seth Meyers, this is all your fault!

[molson]

Who do we nominate to start the Trump presidency thread?

[PilotMan]

The America that I thought I lived in, or that we were heading to is now dead. This was a once in a lifetime opportunity for Democrats to change the SCOTUS. With the next president likely to seat at least 2, possibly 3 on the court, there will never be another chance to get back here in my lifetime. That's a disturbing thought.

[RainMaker]

Maybe this will end the fascination on math nerds trying to tell us who will win.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-...ilver-sam-wang

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Wow. Trump has now edged into the lead in Pennsylvania.

Pittsburgh is holding back on reporting. Trump's not getting PA.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Butter

As a Democrat, you know who I blame? Joe Biden. He wins this easily.

Fuck Cancer.

Though I think Sanders pulls it out if Biden jumped in.

[Butter]

Waiting for Fox News to call it. Surely they'll be the first.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Progressives don't want to go to Mexico? Why not?

Dude, it's hot there. I can't even stand summer in New Jersey.

[tarcone]

I got into an election bracket. It was who wins this and who wins that.

I said Trump would win with 272 EVs.

I think I was the only one who chose Trump in his pool. He is a NEA Dem

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Trump has a legit shot at 300 EV.

I think Trump winning is shocking but the fact he's going to blow her out is remarkable. Like this isn't even looking like it'll be close.

[Neon_Chaos]

Ahhhhh. America, it is refreshing to see that you are not immune to the wave of WTF that has been sweeping the globe in 2016.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Simply put, the 'deplorables' and white male electorate showed up in big numbers in response to the beating that they took from Clinton and her supporters. Also, they WAY overestimated the 'female candidate' effect on the female voters. It didn't come through for them like they thought it would.

People are ANGRY and have been for awhile. Not just the white males. And nobody likes to be called an idiot because they were going to vote one way.

The Republicans thought if you ignored him, he would go away. They decided to attack him late in the primaries. The democrats decided to just attack him. Hillary tried to play the "gotchya" card in the debates. Everyone, including me, thought all she had to do was show up and she would end up winning.

The problem is that's how she viewed it as well. She took things for granted. She didn't feel the need to go to Wisconsin. She kept attacking Trump rather than talking about the issues. In short, she was a horrible, horrible candidate and was from the start.

I'm shocked at this, but in hindsight I shouldn't have been. I HATE what is going to happen tonight, but there are very clear reasons why it did.

[King of New York]

Originally Posted by molson

Who do we nominate to start the Trump presidency thread?

FOFC should invite Nate Silver to join and start the thread.

[tarcone]

Why does it take some states longer to report than others?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Karl Rove mentioned that this is the highest percentage of third party voting since 1996. Over 5% of people voted for 'someone else'.