Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, sorry to see you have to bow out, even if you are blowing heat in my direction to start this game off.

I know we had squared off as villagers once in the past - this was the exact kind of thing that I had alluded to earlier when I voted for AE prior to votes counting.

I do talk a lot in these games. But while I try to be subtle at times I don't think that I'm particularly indirect once there is some material to dissect in later days. If I've earned anyone's distrust in my five or so posts up to this point then I hope I have the opportunity to address these concerns in the days to come.

Now, I have an out-of-game concern - my wife's grandmother passed last night. The services/funeral are Thursday. So I'll be basically MIA for a day. On the one hand I'm kind of amused that I'm finding myself in a position of posting about multiple out-of-game issues distracting me from playing - behavior I indicated could be a pointer to a wolf. But on the other hand I do need to take care of my wife and be available for her family so I'm going to do that without worrying too much about werewolf. I promise to be on especially paranoid behavior upon my return Friday if I'm not lynched or eaten by that time.

[dubb93]

since I'm not sure I'm allowed to edit posts with a vote in them

Unvote Barkeep49

VOTE BARKEEP49

[Blade6119]

to reiterate my vote from yesterday to make it count,

Vote Pass

[SackAttack]

Since our previous votes don't count

VOTE HOOPSGUY

If the dude's a wolf laying cover, he needs to go.
If his wife's grandmother really did pass, he needs to be able to be there for his wife and her family without feeling obligated to a WW game.

Either way, it's a win/win vote from where I'm sitting. Either it helps him focus on more important things, or it outs a wolf!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Now that I'm officially in the game, I can offer my observation on the whole posting about distractions --

I think this idea about holding them against people as an indication of being a baddie is ridiculous. We have no reason to think that it's any more an indication of being a wolf or not being a wolf.

I don't necessarily have a problem with taking cracks at people who won't reliably participate solely on that basis, but I don't like making them as wolves.

[Mr. Wednesday]

As usual, the day 1 vote will be a crapshoot. We can blather about looking for patterns that suggest a wolf, but I doubt any such will be evident -- the best we can hope for is that we'll manage to do something today that trips someone up down the road.

I think that hoops has generally had something to offer in the past, so I'm not inclined to vote him, although I think SackAttack does make a reasonable argument. Similarly for barkeep, but I see why dubb is voting for him. I'm tired of gunning for ardent off the bat, so no go there. Pass plays Battrick, so that gets him a day one pass from me barring a surprising revelation.

Out of the remainder, I can't say that anybody really jumps out at me. Or rather, generally the ones that jump out are positive rather than negative.

VOTE PENNYWISESB

This is not from ardent's random number generator, but I wouldn't say it's particularly more firmly grounded. I may change my mind tomorrow.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and dang, I missed ardent's vote. I'm not trying to start a bandwagon here. :o

UNVOTE PENNYWISESB

[Barkeep49]

I'm willing to get behind the vote for the quiet guy. The reasoning is this: even if he/she/it is a villager they're not adding anything to our efforts.

VOTE PASSACAGALIA

If Pass shows up before the vote deadline with a good reason this will be changed.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

If his wife's grandmother really did pass, he needs to be able to be there for his wife and her family without feeling obligated to a WW game.

If I was going to be gone for more than a day then I work with Neon to find a replacement player for me at this stage out of consideration for everyone else participating in the game. Generally it is not good for the game when people aren't able to be active participants.

In terms of helping my wife to grieve, the grandmother has been afflicted with Alzheimers since before we started dating over eight years ago. She has been in a nursing home that entire time. There have been other close calls before this week. In short, everyone involved has had a long time to prepare for this and the vast majority of people involved think that this was for the best and that there was no quality of life remaining anymore. It is was her other grandmother, with whom she has maintained a close relationship, then I would also back out of the game to take care of Mrs. Hoopsguy because she would be a basket case.

Sorry for the semi-threadjack. I really don't want to have a number of posts on this topic and end up distracting from the game. But I'm not particularly enamored with the idea of ending up with votes because people want to help me focus on my personal life instead of participating in virtual lynchings

[Raiders Army]

Hmmm...a lot of activity happened while I was offline. I guess I'll go with the group.

VOTE PASSACAGALIA

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

As far as initial votes go, I'm mildly surprised that Blade has avoided both an initial vote and a bandwagon already. From the games I've observed, it would be an upset for him to survive three days of conversation prior to lynch #1.

Ironically, it has been just the opposite...so far my vote started a bandwagon to get someone else killed...sorry to dissapoint you at this point in the vote hoops

[hoopsguy]

Not upset about it at all, unless you are a wolf in which case I will be very upset about it at some later date. But you have been a lightning rod for discussion, if not votes, in just about every game you and I have played together. And some other games where I just read along instead of participating.

[Raiders Army]

From the things that he's said, I think he's probably on the side of angels this time (unless he's the cursed and gets converted). Just a feeling I have based upon his comments on the game, etc.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Haven't seen him post in here yet.. not good if you're trying to avoid attention.. maybe this will bring him out of the shell.

Plus.. never trust anyone who took a shortcut to their username by removing all the vowels from their name :P

you must have missed my post saying I was here (pg 2 or late on 1 don't recall which)

so to toss it back to you

Vote SirFozzie

[SnDvls]

VOTE SIRFOZZIE

per Neon's request to make it official

[Neon_Chaos]

Just to inform everyone. I live halfway around the world and I'll make it to work at about 10:30-11:00 AM +8 GMT, so expect me to count the votes at about 9:30-10:00 PM EST, therefore I am moving voting deadline to 9:00 PM EST.

[Mr. Wednesday]

As usual, this vote is basically founded on nothing, but I'm going to cast it anyway. McSweeny has been quieter than I'd like and he's not one of the ones that I'd prefer to leave alive for one day, at least, so,
VOTE MCSWEENY

[hoopsguy]

Very early to have any kind of circles of trust, but I'll go out on a limb and suggest that Mr. W is unlikely to be a wolf. I don't think I have seen a game yet where someone dropped from the game in the role of a bad guy - first time for everything but I'll start with this premise until I have a reason to think otherwise.

I'll stick with my vote from yesterday at this point - VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST for no good reason other than I think it makes sense to vote for someone at this point rather than to wait until end of day and bandwagon someone. It also gives him time to respond if he feels the need to do so. AE has been pretty quiet so far this game, which doesn't necessarily fit with my impressions of him from past games. Feels like a reach, but anything on Day 1 is a reach.

[McSweeny]

well i guess i'll have to jump on the bandwaggon in an effort to preserve my self

VOTE PASSACAGALIA

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll stick with my vote from yesterday at this point - VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST for no good reason other than I think it makes sense to vote for someone at this point rather than to wait until end of day and bandwagon someone. It also gives him time to respond if he feels the need to do so. AE has been pretty quiet so far this game, which doesn't necessarily fit with my impressions of him from past games. Feels like a reach, but anything on Day 1 is a reach.

Well, I'm clean. I'm a good guy. I've been quiet because I'm in the process of moving from the barracks to an apartment. I don't exactly have the internet up and running in my room, but my roommate does.

I understand you have to vote someone, but I'm definitely a good guy.

[pennywisesb]

VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST

Right back at yah buddy.

Alot has happened since I was last online, but it seems as though everyone is bandwagoning on Pass which makes me alittle suspicious since he hasn't really done anything to deserve it. Now it seems the wolves have a perfect excuse to hide in the Pass vote.....Just a thought.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST

Right back at yah buddy.

Alot has happened since I was last online, but it seems as though everyone is bandwagoning on Pass which makes me alittle suspicious since he hasn't really done anything to deserve it. Now it seems the wolves have a perfect excuse to hide in the Pass vote.....Just a thought.

Understandable...hope this doesn't come back on me, though.

[Raiders Army]

Vote count? I gotta finish this report.

[hoopsguy]

Here is what I have for votes so far:
SnDvls - SirFozzie
Pennywise - Ardent
Passacaglia - St Cronin, RPI-Fan, Blade6119, Barkeep, RaidersArmy, McSweeny
Barkeep - Dub
McSweeny - Kingfc, Mr Wednesday
Hoopsguy - SackAttack
SirFozzie - SnDvls
Ardent Enthusiast - Hoopsguy, Pennywise

I believe there are a couple of non-votes but I haven't tracked those at this time.

[dubb93]

Well, since barkeep appears to have removed the vote for me I'll return the favor.

UNVOTE BARKEEP49

Also, I hate 1 horse bandwagons so I'll try an make this a little close with my vote.

VOTE MCSWEENY

[Passacaglia]

Hey all, sorry I haven't been on. Been a bit busy lately.

To respond to "usually being quiet in games" -- I'm still pretty new to the whole werewolf thing, and that's the best explanation I can give!

As for this game, let's roll. I'm the herbalist. Saying this will probably get me a lynching, but at least it will do something to help us villagers.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Hey all, sorry I haven't been on. Been a bit busy lately.

To respond to "usually being quiet in games" -- I'm still pretty new to the whole werewolf thing, and that's the best explanation I can give!

As for this game, let's roll. I'm the herbalist. Saying this will probably get me a lynching, but at least it will do something to help us villagers.

Uh, saying that does us NO good.

There are three scenarios I see based on this post:

1) You actually are the herbalist, and instead of trying to make a smart play to avoid being lynched are trying to take the easy way out, and hurting the team majorly in the process.

2) You're a wolf, trying a desparation play as the herbalist. If so, just how dumb do you think we are?

3) You're not a wolf, pretending to be the herbalist. This wouldn't be an awful play, but trying something so opaque early on is just not a good move.

You're very suspicious to me, and if you are the herbalist you are really hurting the team by coming out, anyways.

My vote stands.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

As for this game, let's roll. I'm the herbalist. Saying this will probably get me a lynching, but at least it will do something to help us villagers.

Well assuming you are telling the truth this helps you today, but doesn't help the villagers b/c you will be eaten b/f you can protect anyone important. You SHOULD have just posted since at least some of your voters said they may remove your vote if you posted. Then later if it still looked bad dropped this bombshell on us.

[hoopsguy]

Well this ups the ante for day one - if Pass is the herbalist then the cat-and-mouse game of who to protect begins tonight in earnest. Protect self tonight or tomorrow? What would the wolves think the herbalist will do?

My thoughts - expected move would be to protect yourself if there is not another high-profile role reveal tonight. But if they know that you are protecting yourself then everyone else is wide open. So I would declare that I'm not protecting myself, daring them to come and get me tonight. And then flip a coin to determine if you do self-protect or go with someone else.

I would think that if I was the herbalist and was fearing that I would be lynched that I would have tried to avoid revealing this information until a little later in the afternoon. And only after failing to convince people not to keep their Day 1 random votes on me. But I would rather have the herbalist out in the open rather than swinging from a rope at the end of the day.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well this ups the ante for day one - if Pass is the herbalist then the cat-and-mouse game of who to protect begins tonight in earnest. Protect self tonight or tomorrow? What would the wolves think the herbalist will do?

My thoughts - expected move would be to protect yourself if there is not another high-profile role reveal tonight. But if they know that you are protecting yourself then everyone else is wide open. So I would declare that I'm not protecting myself, daring them to come and get me tonight. And then flip a coin to determine if you do self-protect or go with someone else.

I would think that if I was the herbalist and was fearing that I would be lynched that I would have tried to avoid revealing this information until a little later in the afternoon. And only after failing to convince people not to keep their Day 1 random votes on me. But I would rather have the herbalist out in the open rather than swinging from a rope at the end of the day.

Why assume he's telling the truth? I think you're too wise to take that kind of remark at face value.

[Raiders Army]

That is a very convenient reveal since you claim you are the herbalist. I'll echo the other guys' thoughts that you revealed yourself too early if it's true.

It's very convenient in the fact that if you are a wolf, you can arrange to kill someone else and just say you were protecting yourself. The chances are that you will not pick the wolfs' target anyhow (if you're human) plus there's the fact that you aren't their prime target....the seer is.

I just think it's a little too coincidental that you look like your head is in the noose and now you reveal you are the herbalist...about the only role that could save you.

[Blade6119]

I agree with hoops, but the question still comes down to whether he is the herbalist or not...its a convenient time for a role reveal...if he is, then we have to work to save him...if not i would lean towards wolf..though it could be a sick ploy by a villager

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Why assume he's telling the truth? I think you're too wise to take that kind of remark at face value.

Or unless they're in it together.

[McSweeny]

well now things are starting to get good aren't they?

[hoopsguy]

I don't take it 100% at face value. But I'm not going to switch my vote today to the guy who called herbalist. I don't like the risk/reward of hanging Pass on Day 1 at this moment.

Here is the next thought - if someone else is the herbalist should they come forward and condemn Pass directly or try to be subtle about it? I think a one-to-one trade is probably worth it, but it would be even better to succeed in guiding the group to hang the fake herbalist while maintaining their secrecy. I think this would be very hard to do but would stand up and applaud at the end of the game if someone does pull that off.

Anyways, the thoughts you quoted were based on Pass as the herbalist. At this point they were intended to make the best of a less-than-optimal situation.

[SnDvls]

wow what a bomb to drop. I don't really know what to add other than what's been said. We've seen this play out both ways in too many games.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

well now things are starting to get good aren't they?

So my initial vote for pass i stated was to start some conversation worked??

[SackAttack]

The other side of it, guys, is he says he's still pretty new to Werewolf.

It's possible that he didn't think through the negative ramifications of his reveal. I think it's too early, but if you're en route to getting railroaded for having been "quiet," why sit on the info and risk the team losing the herbalist on day one?

[SackAttack]

Dola,

Devil's advocate: we wouldn't even know if he WERE just a villager making a sick ploy, since the cunning wolf would show up as a villager. What kind of a play would that be, to be a wolf, know that you won't be revealed as such until all of your companions are dead, and make a play like this to try and keep yourself alive?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

The other side of it, guys, is he says he's still pretty new to Werewolf.

It's possible that he didn't think through the negative ramifications of his reveal. I think it's too early, but if you're en route to getting railroaded for having been "quiet," why sit on the info and risk the team losing the herbalist on day one?

Even if he's telling the truth, his dumbass play does us no good now. He'll have to protect himself tonight, and then he'll die tomorrow having protected nobody.

[Passacaglia]

there's the fact that you aren't their prime target....the seer is.

So if that's the case, why is it such a big deal that I reveal it now? If I were the seer, I wouldn't reveal it now. But as the herbalist, all I can do is protect someone -- and since I don't even know who the villagers are, it's not even likely that I'll save anyone. The best thing, in my mind, that this position is good for, is to reveal it, and get things moving.

For those who don't believe me...well, if I'm not the herbalist, tell me who is.

[SnDvls]

wow 8 of 15 players on now, that's pretty good.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Even if he's telling the truth, his dumbass play does us no good now. He'll have to protect himself tonight, and then he'll die tomorrow having protected nobody.

That's true. I'm just saying the reveal isn't necessarily a wolf play, it could just be inexperience talking.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Dola,

Devil's advocate: we wouldn't even know if he WERE just a villager making a sick ploy, since the cunning wolf would show up as a villager. What kind of a play would that be, to be a wolf, know that you won't be revealed as such until all of your companions are dead, and make a play like this to try and keep yourself alive?

An ACTUAL villager making a fake herbalist play this early would be so monumentally stupid that I'm willing to rule it out at this point. Therefore, if he shows up as a regular villager I'm willing to call that equal to him being a wolf.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't take it 100% at face value. But I'm not going to switch my vote today to the guy who called herbalist. I don't like the risk/reward of hanging Pass on Day 1 at this moment.

Here is the next thought - if someone else is the herbalist should they come forward and condemn Pass directly or try to be subtle about it? I think a one-to-one trade is probably worth it, but it would be even better to succeed in guiding the group to hang the fake herbalist while maintaining their secrecy. I think this would be very hard to do but would stand up and applaud at the end of the game if someone does pull that off.

Anyways, the thoughts you quoted were based on Pass as the herbalist. At this point they were intended to make the best of a less-than-optimal situation.

What happens with your one on one trade if pass is a villager trying to save his own hide by claiming to be more then he is?? Then its 2-0

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So if that's the case, why is it such a big deal that I reveal it now? If I were the seer, I wouldn't reveal it now. But as the herbalist, all I can do is protect someone -- and since I don't even know who the villagers are, it's not even likely that I'll save anyone. The best thing, in my mind, that this position is good for, is to reveal it, and get things moving.

For those who don't believe me...well, if I'm not the herbalist, tell me who is.

What the hell don't you get? If you managed to keep yourself alive for just a couple days you become EXTREMELY valuable!!!

edit: Assuming you're telling the truth, of course. (which I don't think you are)

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, I can't imagine myself being a villager, but not the herbalist. Whatever you may think if my play, please, for my self-respect, leave that one out! :P

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

The other side of it, guys, is he says he's still pretty new to Werewolf.

It's possible that he didn't think through the negative ramifications of his reveal. I think it's too early, but if you're en route to getting railroaded for having been "quiet," why sit on the info and risk the team losing the herbalist on day one?

Pass has played in at least 3 games with me if memory serves me....hes not new

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

An ACTUAL villager making a fake herbalist play this early would be so monumentally stupid that I'm willing to rule it out at this point. Therefore, if he shows up as a regular villager I'm willing to call that equal to him being a wolf.

If it weren't for the fact that a bandwagon is rolling, I might agree about its monumental stupidity.

How else can you really defend on a day one vote? Somebody has to get lynched, and there just isn't a body of evidence to shield yourself with.

On balance, though, unless he's a wolf I think it's just a clumsy attempt by a newcomer to find his feet.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Pass has played in at least 3 games with me if memory serves me....hes not new

I'm just goin' by what he said in his defense post.