Kentucky Derby 2004

[Chubby]

Who's going? Who does everyone like? Where can I find a list of bands that are playing on Thursday? (I can't find it anywhere, all I can find is last year's press release) I have my short list of horses I'll be looking at assuming they are healthy that weekend. I'll be in the infield with my dad and some other people

[rkmsuf]

I don't know how you really "like" anyone. I've seen nothing to suggest there's much to hang your hat on in terms of conviction.

The favorite will probably go off at 5-1 or morre and I'd do some price shopping and look for potential at long odds.

[ISiddiqui]

I think 'Tapit' is a good horse to bet on. He won the Wood in stunning fashion! And the winner of the Wood has won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies.

[rkmsuf]

Tapit will need to take another step forward. It was not an overly impressive time in the Wood. Could happen but he'll be an underlay based on hype alone.

[Bosco]

After all the money I lost last year because of Funny Cide I'm hoping my luck will change this time around.

[Bosco]

What about Smarty Jones, 6 for 6 and just won the Arkansas Derby.

[FishFan]

SMARTY JONES can't go the distance.

THE CLIFF'S EDGE is 2-for-2 at Churchill and coming off a win in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. I'll take a long look at that horse before hitting the window.

[Tigercat]

I'm going to my first derby, woo! I like tapit and lionheart, because I think they both have lots of heart(lionheart was appropriately named IMO). Betting on the horses that you think have the most fighting spirit has always been my favorite method. Because if you lose, well then you can be still be proud of the horse, if you win, well you have the pride and the extra bills in the wallet.

[GrantDawg]

My wife loves Tapit (she was a big Pulpit fan). When is Kickstand going to give us his breakdown?

[ISiddiqui]

It was not an overly impressive time in the Wood.

True, but a very impressive come from behind.

My horse-riding friend so far hasn't been impressed with anyone until Tapit won the Wood the way he did. He was toying with the lead horse when he caught up to him. A sight to see.

[Bosco]

Every time I hear the name Tapit I think about Tap That Ass.

[QuikSand]

I haven't done a deep analysis, but I expect to bet for value. I think the best colt I've seen this year has been READ THE FOOTNOTES, but he clearly has distance questions. However, he had a nice work today, and if he looks to be in shape, I might take a plunge at the right price.

I'm also really hoping that ROCK HARD TEN makes the field, as I think he'd fetch a price and has a real shot. It sounds like ST AVERIL is also heading into the field, and I think he's better than his Santa Anita Derby effort.

I will probably be rooting for TAPIT, because I really like Michael Dickinson and thought his effort in the Wood was the stuff of Derby winners - but I don't expect to get a good enough price to make it a smart bet. I'd guess that 5-1 will be my minimum, and he'll probably be shorter than that.

Could be a great year for a bomber, though.

[FishFan]

Dickinson winning the Derby would be great.

The Mad Scientist has done some marvelous things with some horses. I remember watching him score a bomb with a horse who had not made a start in three years. I've heard of some strange training facilities with a turf surface that is patented. I can't remember where I heard that, but the stories about this guy are something else. He usually only trains older turf horses, so seeing him with a legitimate Derby contender is something special.

[Honolulu Blue]

Futures betting for the Kentucky Derby, courtesty of Bet Bet. Four things I should warn you about:

1) These are straight odds, and not pari-mutuel. So that means if you like TAPIT at 5-1, that's what you'll get paid, no matter what. The bad news is...
2) If the horse doesn't run, for any reason, you lose your bet.
3) Also, I took these odds in the early afternoon, before the Coolmore. They're down at the present time, and I'm sure a few of them will be adjusted before they go back up.
4) As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

ACTION THIS DAY - 40
BIRDSTONE - 30
BORREGO - 18
BREAKAWAY - 75
CASTLEDALE - 30
CONSECRATE - 100
EDDINGTON - 18
FIRE SLAM - 50
FRIENDS LAKE - 20
HARVARD AVENUE - 100
IMPERIALISM - 15
LIMEHOUSE - 30
LION HEART - 15
MASTER DAVID - 7
MINISTER ERIC - 20
MUSTANFAR - 100
POLLARD'S VISION - 20
POMEROY - 50
PREACHINATTHEBAR - 25
PRO PRADO - 60
QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH - 100
READ THE FOOTNOTES - 12
ROCK HARD TEN - 10
SMARTY JONES - 6
SONG OF THE SWORD - 60
ST. AVERIL - 30
SUAVE - 50
TAPIT - 5
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - 6
TRICKY TABOO - 100
VALUE PLUS - 40
WIMBLEDON - 15

[Honolulu Blue]

Bet Bet finally posted their updated odds. The same rules as above apply:

ACTION THIS DAY - 45
BIRDSTONE - 20
BORREGO - 15
BREAKAWAY - 75
CASTLEDALE - 22
CONSECRATE - 100
EDDINGTON - 15
FIRE SLAM - 60
FRIENDS LAKE - 15
HARVARD AVENUE - 100
IMPERIALISM - 15
LIMEHOUSE - 30
LION HEART - 12
MASTER DAVID - 7
MINISTER ERIC - 30
MUSTANFAR - 100
POLLARD'S VISION - 28
POMEROY - 50
PREACHINATTHEBAR - 40
PRO PRADO - 50
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH - 25
READ THE FOOTNOTES - 20
ROCK HARD TEN - 35
SMARTY JONES - 7
SONG OF THE SWORD - 40
ST. AVERIL - 40
SUAVE - 50
TAPIT - 5
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - 6
TRICKY TABOO - 150
VALUE PLUS - 50
WIMBLEDON - 15
SINISTER G - 80

Most of the odds have been updated a little. QGR dropped a lot, as expected. SINISTER G is a late addition.

[FishFan]

I'm hoping to get TAPIT at 7-1 or 8-1...

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by FishFan

I'm hoping to get TAPIT at 7-1 or 8-1...

I'd be shocked if he goes off at that price.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

I'd be shocked if he goes off at that price.

I'm with Franklin. I figure about 9/2.

[QuikSand]

ROCK HARD TEN is a fascinating case... lots of buzz that he's primed to actually win this thing, but he's sitting (last I checked) at #23 on the earnings list, and needs a few more bow-outs to just make the field.

For a future bet right now, 35-1 isn't ridiculous. But if he actually makes the field, I guess he drops to 12 or so.

[Chubby]

I've heard so so things about Rock Hard Ten.

A lot will depend on post positions with something like 20 horses entered in the Derby (or so I hear). Draw is Wed which is good cause I'll get to see it before I fly out Thursday morning.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

ROCK HARD TEN is a fascinating case... lots of buzz that he's primed to actually win this thing, but he's sitting (last I checked) at #23 on the earnings list, and needs a few more bow-outs to just make the field.

For a future bet right now, 35-1 isn't ridiculous. But if he actually makes the field, I guess he drops to 12 or so.

I read someplace that he might play a spoiler in the Preakness if he doesn't make the Derby field.

I don't really see a triple crown winner happening this year. In fact, it would not surprise me to never see another one... but that's another discussion...

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Bosco

What about Smarty Jones, 6 for 6 and just won the Arkansas Derby.

Here's a good article on Smarty Jones:

washingtonpost.com It's Been a Long Ride for Smarty Jones
Death of Trainer Began Strange Trip to Derby

By John Scheinman
Special to The Washington Post
Tuesday, April 27, 2004; Page D01



LOUISVILLE, April 26 -- It is a story almost too improbable to be true, which, of course, is the perfect kind for a larger-than-life event like the Kentucky Derby.

It begins with a tragedy, the shooting death of a beloved horse trainer and his wife by her son, and winds up -- well, it hasn't just yet -- but its key player now is a fabulous, undefeated thoroughbred from Philadelphia Park, of all places, running Saturday in the most important horse race in the country.

As with all great tales, the end isn't what's most important. It's the getting there.

Seabiscuit and Funny Cide, meet Smarty Jones.

Bob Camac was one of the most popular trainers at Philadelphia Park. Respected, talented and successful beyond his second-tier hometown track, he had several well-off clients, including leading Florida breeder Arthur Appleton.

Camac's stepson was reportedly stealing money from him. He would take checks out of his mailbox, use Camac's stamp, and cash them. The trainer found out and confronted him, demanding he pay the money back. The next day, Dec. 6, 2001, the stepson was waiting outside Camac's house in southern New Jersey with a gun. He shot and killed his own mother and Camac as they opened the front door.

The stepson, Wade Russell, was taken into custody hours later. Earlier this year, he pleaded guilty to aggravated manslaughter and was sentenced to 28 years in prison.

Camac's legacy, however, will be in the starting gate Saturday at Churchill Downs for the 130th Kentucky Derby.

"I galloped horses for [Camac]," said Peter Van Trump, an exercise rider who works for John Servis, the trainer of Smarty Jones. "He was the best person."

The death cast a pall over Philadelphia racing, and a couple that bred horses and sent them to Camac to race decided to get out of the business.

"We had already started slowing down," said Pat Chapman, 63, who along with her husband Roy, 77, a former auto dealer, sold their Someday Farm outside of Philadelphia and moved down to Boca Grand, Fla. "We were in the process of selling horses, and when he was murdered, it was such a blow to everybody.

"Bob had handled everything. We said, 'We can't go through another trainer.' "

The Chapmans always sent their weanlings from Someday Farm to Bridlewood Farm in Ocala, Fla., to be broken and prepared to race. George Isaacs, the trainer at Bridlewood, knew the Chapmans were clearing out their stock, but liked two of the youngsters so much, he called one day and said, "I don't think you should sell these weanlings."

"And I think it kind of opened their eyes," Servis said. "And Mrs. Chapman said to Mr. Chapman, 'You know, we sold everything. These are the last two horses. If we sell these horses, we're out of the business.' And I think Mr. Chapman responded, 'Well, let's keep these two and see how it goes. You know, I'm not ready to get out.' "

One of the was a smallish but leggy chestnut, the result of a mating recommended by Camac -- Smarty Jones.

"Early in his 2-year-old year, [Isaacs] talked to my husband again and said, 'Mr. Chapman, this is the horse you've been waiting for,' " Pat Chapman said.

Isaacs, in fact, was so excited, he told the Chapmans to find a trainer like Camac who would be willing to race outside Philadelphia Park. Smarty Jones, named for Pat Chapman's grandmother, who was nicknamed "Smarty" as a young girl, was going to take them places.

The Chapmans hired Servis, 45, on the recommendation of a friend, trainer Mark Reid, because he regularly finished among the leaders at Philadelphia Park and also had major out-of-town victories with his filly Jostle in the late 1990s.

Isaacs shipped Smarty Jones up to Philadelphia Park last May. Servis breezed the colt and saw the talent right away. But one morning, schooling in the starting gate, Smarty Jones reared up and almost killed himself.

"I was in the gate on another horse who had a record from the farm as being bad in the gate," said Maureen Donnelly, Servis's top assistant. "[Smarty Jones] reared up, and it was the worst spot because the bar was right there. As soon as he hit it he went down on his knees. Blood started pouring out of his nose and his eye. Around the track, you see some pretty disgusting things, but that ranked with the worst of them."

A track vet put Smarty Jones on an anti-inflammatory, and the next day sent him to an equine clinic in New Jersey. The horse had two fractures in the orbital area of his left eye and a crushed sinus.

When the call came in from Servis, the Chapmans knew which horse was hurt.

"My husband said, 'I don't have to ask which one,' " Pat Chapman said. "Slow horses don't get hurt."

Smarty Jones, however, was not fazed.

"For as bad as he looked, he was eating and everything," Donnelly said. "He was looking for his hay and feed. He looked horrible and acted like everything was normal."

Not only did Smarty Jones eventually recover, he acted like nothing ever happened. The only thing he had lost was time.

When the colt finally made his debut at Philadelphia Park on Nov. 9 last year, he won by 73/4 lengths. In his following start, in a modest stakes race for Pennsylvania-breds, Smarty Jones won by 15 lengths, running as fast as any 2-year-old in the country.

After a five-length victory on Jan. 3 in a stakes race beyond a mile at Aqueduct, Servis decided this was a horse he could put on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella decided to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Arkansas track by offering $5 million for any horse that could sweep the Southwest Stakes, the Rebel Stakes, the Arkansas Derby and then win the Kentucky Derby. Servis chose this as his objective.

One after another, with consummate professionalism, Smarty Jones picked off the victories. With the nonchalant confidence he showed after his gate injury, he would sit behind the race leader, move when asked by jockey Stewart Elliott, and hold off the closers.

His victory in the Arkansas Derby ran his record to 6 for 6 and stamped him as a legitimate Derby contender. Coming from post position No. 11, on a muddy racetrack, Smarty Jones gained position after a sizzling opening quarter-mile. Despite the taxing start, he led in the stretch by three lengths and crushed the 10 other runners.

Now, if Smarty Jones can win the Kentucky Derby, he will take the $5 million bonus for the Chapmans and earn the $800,000 Derby first prize. It will be the richest single payday in racing history.

"It's been an incredible journey," Pat Chapman said. "It's hard to put into words."

Servis looked relaxed standing outside barn No. 42 at Churchill Downs on Monday while Smarty Jones dozed, his forelegs bound in soothing ice wraps. Five days before the Derby, the trainer couldn't help but allow himself to think Camac continued to have something to do with all the success.

"Is it destiny? I don't know," he said. "Bob was a really good guy. I'm sure he's up there with my uncle having a cup of coffee and reading the Racing Form and loving this. They say everything happens for a reason. How else do you explain it?"



© 2004 The Washington Post Company

[Honolulu Blue]

Bet Bet has updated their futures lines, generally for the worse - at least for the ones that I think have a chance. But take a look anyway:

ACTION THIS DAY - 40
BIRDSTONE - 20
BORREGO - 10
BREAKAWAY - 75
CASTLEDALE - 18
CONSECRATE - 100
EDDINGTON - 12
FIRE SLAM - 50
FRIENDS LAKE - 20
HARVARD AVENUE - 100
IMPERIALISM - 12
LIMEHOUSE - 35
LION HEART - 12
MASTER DAVID - 7
MINISTER ERIC - 25
MUSTANFAR - 100
POLLARD'S VISION - 20
POMEROY - 50
PREACHINATTHEBAR - 40
PRO PRADO - 60
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH - 35
READ THE FOOTNOTES - 12
ROCK HARD TEN - 15
SMARTY JONES - 6
SONG OF THE SWORD - 40
ST. AVERIL - 30
SUAVE - 50
TAPIT - 4
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - 6
TRICKY TABOO - 100
VALUE PLUS - 60
WIMBLEDON - 15
SINISTER G - 80

[rkmsuf]

St. Averil at 30 is a good play.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

St. Averil at 30 is a good play.

He may end up being my pick anyway...

[QuikSand]

By the way, the PP data from DRF is available here for all Derby contenders.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

By the way, the PP data from DRF is available here for all Derby contenders.

Man, they really changed the format of the Form.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I guess that link would have been better if you wanted to understand the details of how I, almost singlehandedly, rescued some $9 million in funding for Maryland's Program Open Space initiative from being inadvertently recycled to the general fund. But that's probably not what you were looking for.

Let's try this link:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/pps.html

[rkmsuf]

I hate to say it but Tapit might be poised for a big move forward. Can't stand that thing...

St. Averil and Master David look like improvement is likely as well. The only other one would be Lion Heart gate to wire if the others don't get to the front for some reason.

[Chubby]

the Selection Order has been released for picking post positions.

http://kentuckyderby.com/2004/derby_...s_04282004.pdf

[Chubby]

The Oaks

Post Position Morning Line* Horse Trainer Jockey 
1 4-1 Ashado Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 
2 20-1 Hollywood Story John Shirreffs Victor Espinoza 
3 30-1 Island Sand Larry Jones Terry Thompson 
4 9-2 Halfbridled Richard Mandella Alex Solis 
5 8-1 House Of Fortune Ronald McAnally Shane Sellers 
6 3-1 Madcap Escapade Frank Brothers Jerry Bailey 
7 6-1 Silent Sighs Julio Canani David Flores 
8 8-1 Victory U.S.A. Bob Baffert Pat Day 
9 8-1 A.P. Adventure Wally Dollase Mike Smith 
10 20-1 Last Song Carl Nafzger Edgar Prado 
11 20-1 Class Above Bob Baffert Corey Nakatani 
12 30-1 Stellar Jayne D. Wayne Lukas Robbie Albarado 

[rkmsuf]

With the long run to the first turn, post position doesn't mean a whole lot but of course it's always better to have your choice.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

With the long run to the first turn, post position doesn't mean a whole lot but of course it's always better to have your choice.

I'd rather have my horse in 7 than 20. Tho it looks like Tapit will be forced to the outside (late post pick) which may help him as it seems he's a closer who can still win coming from last.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I'd rather have my horse in 7 than 20. Tho it looks like Tapit will be forced to the outside (late post pick) which may help him as it seems he's a closer who can still win coming from last.

won't matter, that thing will be 15 lengths behind and can just drop in before the first turn...unless of course the pilot f's up which is possible.


Could be more of a bad break for Lion Heart. Definately has the ability to go wire to wire but if forced to come from way outside others may have enough early lick to make it tough.

Who knows though; it's chaos at the gate...

[Chubby]

by the way, if anyone sees someone wearing a blue Sabres hat with the original logo on it in the infield or betting lines, that's me. flyin out tomorrow morning yahoo

[Tigercat]

Damn, I was hoping lionheart would be worse than 12-1. Crap. I guess if Wimbledon stays at 15-1 that will be my bet.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

Damn, I was hoping lionheart would be worse than 12-1. Crap. I guess if Wimbledon stays at 15-1 that will be my bet.

opening odds aren't out yet, they will be released after the post position draw at 5pm (on ESPN2 I think)

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Chubby

opening odds aren't out yet, they will be released after the post position draw at 5pm (on ESPN2 I think)

Has the field of 20 been determined, or does that happen at 5pm, too?

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Has the field of 20 been determined, or does that happen at 5pm, too?

the field is set (see my above link) that is the order they will select their post positions.

[QuikSand]

The 20 are selected - on the link above. The outsiders are officially out, including ROCK HARD TEN.

I'm having a very messy time sorting out this field... I have six horses I want to use right now:

CASTLEDALE
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
WIMBLEDON

I'll probbaly peel off two of them before focusing in on my main exotic bet strategy. Right now, I'm looking to use WIMBLEDON and CASTLEDALE in the top spot.

[Franklinnoble]

You don't like Tapit?

[Chubby]

Tapit is on his list, he's who I'm looking at right now.

Draw is on ESPN.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Chubby

Tapit is on his list, he's who I'm looking at right now.

Draw is on ESPN.

I know, he just wasn't in his top spot... He'd be my favorite right about now, but, then again, I'm a crappy handicapper.

[Chubby]

Tapit looks like he'll be starting out of 19 if I had to guess (he hasn't picked yet)

[Chubby]

Tapit will break from 18

[Raven Hawk]

Holy Crap. This field is huge. Anybody could win this thing.

[Franklinnoble]

Will the DRF be posting PP's of the official field soon?

[Chubby]

Interesting odds. Let me see if I can find an online list with odds already.

[Raven Hawk]

Bailey on Wimbledon out of 5 makes me feel warm and fuzzy for some reason.

[Chubby]

Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds 
1. Limehouse J. Santos T. Pletcher 30-1 
2. Song of the Sword N. Arroyo Jr. J. Pedersen 30-1 
3. Lion Heart M. Smith P. Biancone 10-1 
4. Action This Day D. Flores R. Mandella 30-1 
5. Wimbledon J. Bailey B. Baffert 15-1 
6. Friends Lake R. Migliore J. Kimmel 15-1 
7. Minister Eric P. Day R. Mandella 30-1 
8. Master David A. Solis R. Frankel 12-1 
9. St Averil T. Baze R. Becerra 30-1 
10. Imperialism K. Desormeaux K. Mulhall 15-1 
11. The Cliff's Edge S. Sellers N. Zito 4-1 
12. Borrego V. Espinoza B. Greely 20-1 
13. Birdstone E. Prado N. Zito 50-1 
14. Read the Footnotes R. Albarado R. Violette 12-1 
15. Smarty Jones S. Elliott J. Servis 9-2 
16. Castledale J. Valdivia Jr. J. Mullins 15-1 
17. Pollard's Vision J. Velazquez T. Pletcher 20-1 
18. Tapit R. Dominguez M. Dickinson 8-1 
19. Pro Prado J. McKee R. Holthus 30-1 
20. Quintons Gold Rush C. Nakatani S. Asmussen 20-1