WIS NCAA Football 2016 World Cup

[collegesportsfanms]

Seeing as how it's been a while since anybody did one of these, and I'm not at all happy about the 4 teams in the CFP, I decided to do a world cup myself. I've normally done these with college basketball using the What-if Sports sim engine, but I decided to do it with football this time. However, unlike the ones that were done in the past, that had 120 teams, there are now 128 FBS teams in NCAA Football. So.. I have a couple different options that I want to run by you guys and see which one sounds more fitting:

Option 1: 32 pools, 4 teams in each pool. Each team plays a home and away series with the other 3 teams in their pool. Top 2 teams in each pool advance, plus the 4 best 3rd place teams, making 68 teams. Teams 60-68 play each other to get it down to a 64 team tournament.

Option 2: eliminate 8 teams, dropping it down to 120. The teams eliminated could be the worst ranked teams (including Idaho since they are going to the FCS in a couple years) or any other teams I choose to eliminate, then I could go 20 pools of 6 teams each, top 3 teams from each pool plus best 4 4th place teams, making it a straight 64 team tournament.

But.. I'm not sure I really want to cut any teams, because you never know when that big upset might happen. But I'm really not sure I'm keen on just having 4 teams in a pool either. I feel like 6 teams pools garner more interest. What do you guys think?

[Young Drachma]

128 but with the bottom 64 playing amongst themselves for a shot into the main 64 bracket.

Bottom 64 --> 32 --> 16 ---> 8 ---> 4

First Four ---> Field of 64

So basically like FA Cup qualifying rounds but without the home and away.

[collegesportsfanms]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

128 but with the bottom 64 playing amongst themselves for a shot into the main 64 bracket.

Bottom 64 --> 32 --> 16 ---> 8 ---> 4

First Four ---> Field of 64

So basically like FA Cup qualifying rounds but without the home and away.

That's not a bad idea either, so teams 65-128 play single elimination games, then jump into pool play for the 64. Basic soccer style. My only issue with your idea is, I was kind of looking forward to pool play all the way through. And, doing it the way you suggest, I think you'd have to have 1-128 all playing single elimination to get into the 64 team bracket. I dunno, I still like pool play though lol

[DavidCorperial]

What about 8 team pools, giving us 16 pools, with the top four advancing into single elimination 64 team bracket.

[collegesportsfanms]

Originally Posted by DavidCorperial

What about 8 team pools, giving us 16 pools, with the top four advancing into single elimination 64 team bracket.

I think I briefly thought about that idea too, but then I got to wondering if the 8 team pools would be too much. I guess it's never been done before (at least on any of these pool play tournament style threads that I've ever seen) so it would be something new. If I did it that way, I'm not sure if I would want to do home and away or not. I'd have to consider that.

I'm still kind of excited about the idea of having wildcards, to make it 68 teams, but I certainly wouldn't have to.

[collegesportsfanms]

I think I'm going to give the 16 groups, with 8 teams in each group idea a try. No wildcards, just top 4 teams from each group advance. (Next project I do, I'll include wildcards again as I'm sure I'll do something with college basketball sometime next year). I will begin placing the teams within the next couple days. Top 16 teams as of the last CFP top 25 poll will be the placed, 1 in each group (#1 in Group A, #2 in Group B, and so on). The rest of the teams will be randomly selected to be in a group, with the only rule being no group will have multiple teams from a conference. In other words, each group will be represented by 8 different conferences. I'm almost 100% sure this is doable.

Each team will play the other 7 teams in their group once, with all games being at a neutral site, so there will (or shouldn't) be any home field advantage for any team.

I am still debating whether I want to go through the groups 1 at a time, or if I want to be different and play the first set of games in each group, then the second set, so that all of the groups finish pretty much at the same time. I think, for seeding purposes, I will do it like I always have, finish group A, then Group B, and so on. Again, I'll get started in placing the teams sometime in the next couple days, and hopefully can get the groups announced sometime next week.

[Young Drachma]

Cool

[collegesportsfanms]

ok fans, the groups have been drawn, and I have double checked to make sure no group has more than 1 team from any particular conference. As far as the top 25 goes, I took it straight from the final BCS Top 25. The top 16 headline each of the 16 groups, and teams ranked 17-25 were randomly placed in groups. So there are some groups that have 2 ranked teams, and I think there might be a group that actually has 3 ranked teams in it. Now, without further adieu it's time to start announcing the groups.

I will announce the groups in this format:

Team, Conference, Conference Record, Overall Record (Current record as of the time I announce the group, may or may not take into effect bowl game results).


Group A

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 13-0)
#19 Utah (Pac 12, 5-4, 8-4)
Ball State (MAC, 1-7, 4-8)
Duke (ACC, 1-7, 4-8)
ECU (American, 1-7, 3-9)
Georgia State (Sun Belt, 2-6, 3-9)
Nevada (Mountain West, 3-5, 5-7)
UTEP (Conference USA, 2-6, 4-8)

If Alabama doesn't win every game by at least 3 touchdowns, I'll be shocked. Even Utah, which is the ranked team in the group with them, wasn't overly impressive this season. Spots 1 and 2 of this group should be locked up already. Nevada/UTEP could be in a battle for #3, and the rest of the teams will be battling for #4.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group B

#2 Clemson (ACC, 7-1, 12-1)
Army (Independents, NA, 7-5)
Boise State (Mountain West, 6-2, 10-2)
Central Michigan (MAC, 3-5, 6-7)
Rutgers (Big Ten, 0-9, 2-10)
South Florida (American, 7-1, 10-2)
Texas (Big 12, 3-6, 5-7)
Western Kentucky (7-1, 10-3)

Wow! I haven't looked up the records for the teams in the other groups, but I think it's safe to say we can definitely call this a group of death. Although there is only 1 ranked team, there are 3 non-BCS teams that could advance. Clemson is definitely not a lock to win this group, as we know the prestige Boise State has. It'll be interesting to see if Army and Central Michigan can hang with any of the other teams. And don't sleep on Texas. This group is way too tough to predict, but whichever 4 teams advance, they will have certainly earned it.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group C

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten, 8-1, 11-2)
#20 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 7-4)
Akron (MAC, 3-5, 5-7)
Boston College (ACC, 2-6, 6-6)
Fresno State (Mountain West, 0-8, 1-11)
Kansas State (Big 12, 6-3, 8-4)
Memphis (American, 5-3, 8-4)
Old Dominion (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-3)

Another group that has 2 ranked teams. Unlike Alabama in their group though, Ohio State should get some tests here, especially from LSU and Kansas State. It'll be interesting to see how Old Dominion and Memphis fair against the likes of OSU, LSU, and K-State. I like those 3 teams as #1, #2, and #3 respectively. The battle for #4 is going to be intense. Can a subpar Boston College team that plays in a BC conference overtake a couple of the better non-BCS teams in Old Dominion and Memphis? I don't think so, I think ultimately the Memphis/Old Dominion winner gets #4.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group D

#4 Washington (Pac 12, 8-1, 12-1)
#22 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 9-4)
Appalachian State (Sun Belt, 7-1, 10-3)
BYU (Independents, NA, 8-4)
Kentucky (SEC, 4-4, 7-5)
Maryland (Big Ten, 3-6, 6-6)
Texas Tech (Big 12, 3-6, 5-7)
UCF (American, 4-4, 6-7)

I think Washington should win this group fairly easily, the 2 burning questions coming out of this group both involve Appalachian State and BYU: Can either or both of them overtake VA Tech for #2, or do they have a reversal of fortunes and get overtaken by middle of the pack teams like Kentucky, Maryland, and Texas Tech. I think #3 will either be Appalachian or BYU, and #4 will either be Kentucky or Texas Tech. I don't think Maryland or UCF have enough to make the top 4.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group E

#5 Penn State (Big Ten, 8-1, 11-2)
California (Pac 12, 3-6, 5-7)
Houston (American, 5-3, 9-4)
Miami (OH) (MAC, 6-2, 6-6)
Mississippi State (SEC, 3-5, 5-7)
N.C. State (ACC, 3-5, 6-6)
New Mexico (Mountain West, 6-2, 9-4)
Texas State (Sun Belt, 0-8, 2-10)

Penn State shouldn't have much to worry about as far as advancing out of this group, they should win it. Their biggest competition will be between Houston and New Mexico who will probably be battling for #2. It's possible that either Cal, Miss. St., or N.C. State could advance out of this group, and if things go right, 2 or even 3 of these teams could advance. It all depends on how Houston and New Mexico fare against them.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group F

#6 Michigan (Big Ten, 7-2, 10-2)
#23 Pittsburgh (ACC, 5-3, 8-4)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt, 7-1, 8-5)
Cincinnati (American, 1-7, 4-8)
Colorado State (Mountain West, 5-3, 7-5)
Missouri (SEC, 2-6, 4-8)
Oregon (Pac 12, 2-7, 4-8)
Southern Miss (Conference USA, 4-4, 7-6)

2 things jump out at me from this group. First, Pitt might not make it out of this group. 2nd, Missouri and Oregon, who both had subpar seasons in real life, have a major chance for redemption. The non-power 4 schools in this group don't seem overwhelming at all, and it's not far fetched to think that all 4 power 5 schools in this group could and should advance.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group G

#7 Oklahoma (Big 12, 9-0, 10-2)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt, 4-4, 5-7)
Iowa (Big Ten, 6-3, 8-4)
North Texas (Conference USA, 3-5, 5-7)
Notre Dame (Independents, NA, 4-8)
Texas A&M (SEC, 4-4, 8-4)
Utah State (Mountain West, 1-7, 3-9)
Wake Forest (ACC, 3-5, 6-6)

I am really looking forward to seeing how the battle between Oklahoma and Texas A&M plays out. It'll be fun to see that former Big 12 rivalry be renewed. As for the group, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Texas A&M look to be locks to advance. The #4 spot will probably be a battle between Notre Dame and Wake Forest. I can't really see the other 3 teams doing much to make noise in this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group H

#8 Wisconsin (Big Ten, 7-2, 10-3)
Georgia Tech (ACC, 4-4, 8-4)
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA, 5-3, 8-4)
Ole Miss (SEC, 2-6, 5-7)
South Alabama (Sun Belt, 2-6, 6-6)
San Jose State (Mountain West, 3-5, 4-8)
Toledo (MAC, 6-2, 9-4)
UMass (Independents, NA, 2-10)

This group is Wisconsin's to lose. Toledo and GA Tech might offer some resistance, but I don't think it'll be enough. I think Toledo and GA Tech will be battling for #2, with the other being #3. Another group where a power 5 school that struggled in real life has a chance to make amends in this World Cup. Ole Miss gets that opportunity, and they should have a battle with Mid. Tenn. for #4.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group I

#9 USC (Pac 12, 7-2, 9-3)
#25 Navy (American, 7-1, 9-4)
Buffalo (MAC, 1-7, 2-10)
Charlotte (Conference USA, 3-5, 4-8)
Northwestern (Big Ten, 5-4, 6-6)
South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 6-6)
UL Lafayette (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-7)
Virginia (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)

Yuck! There is a major drop off in this group after USC and Navy. They'll be battling for #1 and #2, and I see USC winning the group with Navy taking #2. As for #3 and #4, it's a complete toss=up. I don't know that Buffalo, Charlotte, or even Virginia will be able to compete, so I see 3 teams battling for those 2 spots, with Northwestern and South Carolina the other 2 that advance.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group J

#10 Colorado (Pac 12, 8-1, 10-3)
#24 Temple (American, 7-1, 10-3)
Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 7-5)
FIU (Conference USA, 4-4, 4-8)
Hawaii (Mountain West, 4-4, 6-7)
Indiana (Big Ten, 4-5, 6-6)
Kent State (MAC, 2-6, 3-9)
Miami (FL) (ACC, 5-3, 8-4)

An interesting group to say the least. Colorado had their best season in quite some time, but they'll have some tests in this group. Temple, Miami, and even Arkansas could cost them a group title. There really aren't any non-power 5 teams in this group that I feel could make any noise. I actually like Colorado to win the group, but Miami to overtake Temple for #2, with Temple getting #3, and #4 being a battle between Arkansas and Indiana.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group K

#11 Florida State (ACC, 5-3. 9-3)
Eastern Michigan (MAC, 4-4, 7-5)
Illinois (Big Ten, 2-7, 3-9)
Iowa State (Big 12, 2-7, 3-9)
Oregon State (Pac 12, 3-6, 4-8)
San Diego State (Mountain West, 6-2, 11-3)
Tulsa (American, 6-2, 10-3)
UL Monroe (Sun Belt, 3-5, 4-8)

The big question out of this group is will the successful non-power 5 schools in San Diego State and Tulsa be able to overtake the prestigious Florida State Seminoles? I'm saying probably not. Unless we have some upsets though, San Diego State and Tulsa should be battling for #2, with the other being #3. As for #4, it's pretty ugly, and I don't even know who to predict here. 5 subpar (at best) teams battling for 1 spot to advance, should be very interesting.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group L

#12 Oklahoma State (Big 12, 7-2, 9-3)
#21 Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 8-4)
Arizona (Pac 12, 1-8, 3-9)
Bowling Green (MAC, 3-5, 4-8)
Louisiana Tech (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
North Carolina (ACC, 5-3, 8-4)
Purdue (Big Ten, 1-8, 3-9)
Troy (Sun Belt, 6-2, 9-3)

Not really a group of death here, as even the 2nd ranked team in this group isn't overly impressive. I mean Tennessee was good this season, but not great. Same with North Carolina. Can Troy and LA Tech overtake Tennessee and N. Carolina? It'll be fun to watch. I think Oklahoma State will win the group, with Tennessee and N. Carolina finishing #2 and #3, and #4 a battle between LA Tech and Troy.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group M

#13 Louisville (ACC, 7-1, 9-3)
#17 Florida (SEC, 6-2, 8-4)
Marshall (Conference USA, 2-6, 3-9)
Michigan State (Big Ten, 1-8, 3-9)
Ohio (MAC, 6-2, 8-5)
TCU (Big 12, 4-5, 6-6)
UConn (American, 1-7, 3-9)
Washington State (Pac 12, 7-2, 8-4)

It's going to be a battle between Louisville, Florida, and Washington State for that top spot. This could easily compare to Group B for the Group of Death. All 3 of those teams should advance fairly easily, but #4 is going to be the tricky spot. It's a good chance for teams like TCU or Michigan State to redeem themselves after a rough year in reality. Ultimately, I see that #4 spot going to TCU.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group N

#14 Auburn (SEC, 5-3, 8-4)
Baylor (Big 12, 3-6, 6-6)
Northern Illinois (MAC, 5-3, 5-7)
Nebraska (Big Ten, 6-3, 9-3)
New Mexico State (Sun Belt, 2-6, 3-9)
Rice (Conference USA, 2-6, 3-9)
UCLA (Pac 12, 2-7, 4-8)
UNLV (Mountain West, 3-5, 4-8)

Not a lot to work with in this group, after Auburn and Nebraska the rest of the teams in this group didn't have great seasons. I'm actually going out on a limb here and picking Nebraska to win this group with Auburn #2. This should be a great chance for both Baylor and UCLA to redeem themselves in this World Cup and advance out of group play, but if any of the non-power 5 teams can make some noise, it would be N. Illinois.

[collegesportsfanms]

Well, 2 more groups to announce, and I was hoping to get them in today, but it's been crazier at work than I expected. For those curious, I am doing this project during my down time at work, of which I usually have a lot, but not so much this week with it being Christmas week and everything.

So, plan on me announcing the last 2 groups tomorrow, and hopefully at least getting games for Group A started.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group O

#15 Western Michigan (MAC, 8-0, 13-0)
Arizona State (Pac 12, 2-7, 5-7)
Florida Atlantic (Conference USA, 2-6, 3-9)
Idaho (Sun Belt, 6-2, 8-4)
Kansas (Big 12, 1-8, 2-10)
Tulane (American, 1-7, 4-8)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 3-5, 6-6)
Wyoming (Mountain West, 6-2, 8-6)

I feel like this might be the most wide open group of all of them. Yes, Western Michigan was undefeated in the season (not counting their upcoming bowl game in which many people think they'll get slaughtered) and yes they did play some decent teams in the MAC, but they'll have competition in this group. Some pretty strong non-power 5 schools in Idaho and Wyoming, as well as a couple power 5 schools who struggled in reality, but have a chance for redemption here (Arizona State, Vanderbilt, maybe even Kansas). Another tough group to predict. Western Michigan is still the favorite, and I think they'll win the group, but they'll have a couple setbacks. I'm sold on Wyoming advancing, but not Idaho. As for the #3 and #4 spots, it's wide open.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group P

#16 West Virginia (Big 12, 7-2, 10-2)
#18 Stanford (Pac 12, 6-3, 9-3)
Air Force (Mountain West, 5-3, 9-3)
Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 7-5)
Minnesota (Big 10, 5-4, 8-4)
SMU (American, 3-5, 5-7)
Syracuse (ACC, 2-6, 4-8)
UTSA (Conference USA, 5-3, 6-7)

A very tough group to finish off with, another "group of death" type group. Any of the first 5 teams listed have a very legit shot to advance. Our 2 ranked teams should get some major tests from Air Force, Georgia, and Minnesota. I don't see the group winner going through undefeated, I think whoever wins this group will have at least 1, maybe 2 losses. And don't sleep on SMU or Syracuse to pull an upset or 2 and slide into the top 4. A wide open group in my opinion, and another one that might be too tough to call.

[collegesportsfanms]

All the groups are in! Anybody that wants to make their own predictions, feel free. I'm going to get started on Group A, and try and get Group A finished today.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group A

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 13-0)
#19 Utah (Pac 12, 5-4, 8-4)
Ball State (MAC, 1-7, 4-8)
Duke (ACC, 1-7, 4-8)
ECU (American, 1-7, 3-9)
Georgia State (Sun Belt, 2-6, 3-9)
Nevada (Mountain West, 3-5, 5-7)
UTEP (Conference USA, 2-6, 4-8)

-------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Alabama- 41, UTEP- 0
Utah- 45, Nevada- 26
Ball State- 25, Georgia State- 22 (OT)
ECU- 34, Duke- 20

As expected, Bama pitches a shutout, even though UTEP put up some yards, they never could get in the end zone. Utah jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead in their win over Nevada, while Ball State needed a late field goal to force OT against Georgia State, then got the win in OT. ECU used a 21 point 3rd quarter and led 34-6 after 3. Duke tried to come back but it was too little, too late.

Week 2

Alabama- 34, Nevada- 9
Georgia State- 20, UTEP- 17 (OT)
Utah- 38, ECU- 24
Duke- 34, Ball State- 27

Nevada actually scored first in their game against Alabama, but it was all Crimson Tide from there. Georgia State plays their 2nd OT game in as many games, and actually wins this one. ECU was held to just 20 rushing yards in their loss to Utah, while Duke and Ball State traded leads several times, but Duke scored the last 10 points to earn their first victory in group play.

Week 3

Alabama- 58, Georgia State- 10
Nevada- 38, ECU- 31
Duke- 52, UTEP- 20
Utah- 44, Ball State- 13

Lots of blowouts in Week 3. No overtime for Georgia State this week, as Bama rushes for over 300 yards. Nevada scored their game winning TD with 30 seconds left in the closest game of week 3. UTEP threw 3 interceptions, 1 which was returned for a touchdown, in their big loss to Duke. Utah was only up 13-10 early in the 3rd quarter, but scored 31 of the last 34 points to stay undefeated.

--------------------------------------------

Standings after three weeks, with point differential in parenthesis (first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but point differential is likely to be very important when seeding teams for the second round, where ties exist between teams that haven't played each other).

Alabama 3-0 (+114)
Utah 3-0 (+64)
Duke 2-1 (+25)
ECU 1-2 (-7)
Ball State 1-2 (-35)
Nevada 1-2 (-37)
Georgia State 1-2 (-48)
UTEP 0-3 (-76)

[collegesportsfanms]

Group A

Week 4

Alabama- 58, ECU- 24
Duke- 28, Georgia State- 17
Nevada- 31, Ball State- 14
Utah- 30, UTEP- 9

Alabama wins easily despite giving up over 400 passing yards to ECU, but they held the Pirates to just 2 rushing yards. Duke and Georgia State combined for 5 turnovers, but Duke scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win. Nevada was 11/19 on 3rd down attempts, not a bad percentage at all, as they even their record at 2-2. UTEP is the only winless team in this group after Utah handles them easily.

Week 5

Alabama- 28, Duke- 7
ECU-49, Ball State- 13
Utah- 24, Georgia State- 7
Nevada- 37, UTEP- 10

The Crimson Tide continues to use a balanced attack on offense, getting 225 passing yards and 220 rushing yards in beating a game Duke team. Give the Blue Devils some credit though, they've held Bama to the least points in a game so far. ECU scores 35 unanswered points to roll over Ball State, while Utah struggles a bit against Georgia State. Nevada broke open a close game by scoring the last 21 points, as they are now 3-2 and help their advancement chances.

Week 6

Alabama- 27, Ball State- 13
Utah- 37, Duke- 18
ECU- 48, UTEP- 24
Nevada- 23, Georgia State- 14

The Tide, while still undefeated, have been tested a bit more in their last 2 games. The arm and legs both of Jalen Hurts leads them to a win over Ball State. Utah also stays undefeated with a 20 point outburst in the 4th quarter, setting up a winner take all game next week between Utah and Alabama. ECU and UTEP were tied at 24 going into the 4th quarter, but ECU explodes for 24 straight to keep UTEP winless. Nevada forces 4 Georgia State turnovers to get a win, but they didn't look too good offensively.

------------------------------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Alabama 6-0 (+183)
Utah 6-0 (+121)
Nevada 4-2 (+16)
ECU 3-3 (+19)
Duke 3-3 (-4)
Georgia State 1-5 (-85)
Ball State 1-5 (-102)
UTEP 0-6 (-148)

Week 7 Schedule

Utah vs. Alabama
UTEP vs. Ball State
Duke vs. Nevada
ECU vs. Georgia State

- Alabama and Utah have already clinched advancement out of this group. The winner of the Bama/Utah game will win the group, with the loser still finishing 2nd place. All Nevada needs to do to advance is beat Duke, which won't be an easy task. There's a very good chance of a tiebreaker in this group, as there are 2 possibilities: if Duke beats Nevada and ECU beats Georgia State, we'll have 3 teams tied at 4-3, battling for 2 spots. However, if ECU and Duke both lose, then they'll both be 3-4 and tied for 4th place. If that were to happen, ECU would advance based on the fact they beat Duke head to head. Simply put, Duke must beat Nevada to have a chance to advance, while Nevada and ECU can still advance with losses this week. Georgia State and Ball State are playing for pride this week, while UTEP is playing to not go winless in group play.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group A

Week 7

Alabama- 28, Utah- 27
UTEP- 38, Ball State- 31
Duke- 40, Nevada- 21
Georgia State- 28, ECU- 14

What a game Bama and Utah had! Believe it or not, the Utes actually led 27-16 going into the 4th quarter, but the Tide would not be denied! Still down 27-22 with just mere seconds on the clock, Jalen Hurts found ArDarius Steward from 20 yards out as the buzzer went off, stealing the win and the group title right out of Utah's hands!! Heartbreak for the Utes. UTEP avoids the winless group play by hanging on against Ball State, while Duke keeps their advancement hopes alive by outscoring Nevada 26-0 in the 2nd half. So it would all hinge on what ECU did, and what they did was lose, as Georgia State got 5, count em, 5 field goals from their kicker Rogier ten Lohuis to shock the Pirates and eliminate them from further competition.

-----------------------------------------------

Final Group A standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1- Alabama 7-0 (+184)
#2- Utah 6-1 (+120)
#3- Duke 4-3 (+15)
#4- Nevada 4-3 (-3)
#5- ECU 3-4 (+5)
#6- Georgia State 2-5 (-71)
#7- UTEP 1-6 (-141)
#8- Ball State 1-6 (-109)

So Alabama wins Group A thanks to a last second miracle against Utah. I figured Utah and Bama would advance out of this group easy, but I'm shocked by UTEP. I thought they were better than the 4-8 record they had this season, but apparently not.

Alabama sets the tone early in this tournament. If you want to be the overall #1 seed in the Round of 64, you have to not only go undefeated in your group, but also wins some games by lopsided scores. Just think how much worse it could have been had they not slowed down on the scoring in their last 3 games.

Duke comes through with a big win at the time they had to have one, and actually win both the head to head and point differential tiebreakers against Nevada. I'm not sure why I discounted Duke so much, after all, if memory serves, they did win their only conference game against a pretty good North Carolina team this season.

1 group done, 15 more to go.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group B

#2 Clemson (ACC, 7-1, 12-1)
Army (Independents, NA, 7-5)
Boise State (Mountain West, 6-2, 10-2)
Central Michigan (MAC, 3-5, 6-7)
Rutgers (Big Ten, 0-9, 2-10)
South Florida (American, 7-1, 10-2)
Texas (Big 12, 3-6, 5-7)
Western Kentucky (7-1, 10-3)

----------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Western Kentucky- 52, Clemson- 21
Army- 24, Texas- 17
South Florida- 52, Boise State- 31
Central Michigan- 30, Rutgers- 23 (2 OT)

Wow! I certainly didn't see that coming. Western Kentucky absolutely hammers the #2 ranked Tigers, forcing 2 Deshaun Watson interceptions and holding him to just 8 yards on the ground. Army took advantage of 3 Texas turnovers, all interceptions, to beat the Longhorns. South Florida used big 1st and 4th quarters to handle Boise State and it took Central Michigan 2 overtimes to finally dispose of Rutgers. A couple early shocks in Group B.

Week 2

Clemson- 45, Texas- 42
Western Kentucky- 33, South Florida- 28
Army- 33, Rutgers- 20
Boise State- 45, Central Michigan- 38

The ranked Tigers were on the verge of going 0-2 in this group, until Deshaun Watson hooked up with Mike Williams to give Clemson the lead with just over a minute left. A defensive stand later, and it is Texas that is 0-2. The WKU/S. Florida game was a shootout, with the lead changing several times. It was the Hilltoppers that scored last though, moving to 2-0 in group play. Army also moves to 2-0, rushing for an amazing 480 yards in from, guess who, Deshaun Watson, and also converted the 2 point try to the process! They had 2 players with over 100 yards rushing. Boise State gets on the winning side of things, scoring the game winning TD with just under 2 minutes to go.

Week 3

Clemson- 51, South Florida- 45 (3 OT)
Texas- 30, Rutgers- 16
Western Kentucky- 39, Central Michigan- 21
Army- 28, Boise State- 23

This group is already producing some ESPN Instant Classics. The Tigers went into the 4th quarter down 31-6 and made a furious rally. Even down 8 with time for 1 more play, they wouldn't be denied, as they got a TD pass send the game to OT. Both teams scored TDs in the first 2 overtimes, and Clemson got a stop in the 3rd OT and went down and scored on their end to cap an amazing comeback! Meanwhile, Texas picks up their first win of group play, while Western Kentucky and Army continue to roll. The Black Knights continued to dominate the ground game, picking up 391 rushing yards to send Boise State to a surprising 1-2.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Standings after three weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Western Kentucky 3-0 (+54)
Army 3-0 (+25)
Clemson 2-1 (-22)
South Florida 1-2 (+10)
Texas 1-2 (+4)
Central Michigan 1-2 (-18)
Boise State 1-2 (-19)
Rutgers 0-3 (-34)

[collegesportsfanms]

Group B

Week 4

Clemson- 33, Rutgers- 12
South Florida- 42, Central Michigan- 35
Boise State- 41, Texas- 17
Western Kentucky- 55, Army- 7

After Rutgers scored a touchdown to start the second half and made it a 14-10 game, the Tigers scored 19 unanswered to put the game away. South Florida and Central Michigan combined for over 1200 yards of offense in their game, but South Florida scored last. Boise State and Western Kentucky roll, as Texas is in major trouble now, and Army was majorly exposed. The Broncos passed for over 400 yards in their win and the Hilltoppers picked up 37 first downs and had almost 700 yards of total offense to remain undefeated.

Week 5

Clemson- 34, Central Michigan- 17
Boise State- 38, Rutgers- 24
South Florida- 51, Army- 17
Western Kentucky- 52, Texas- 20

The bulk of the scoring was done in the 2nd and 4th quarters in this one, as the Tigers never really could pull away. If not for 2 red zone interceptions thrown by the Chippewas, this game could have had a different result. Boise State got 164 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns from Jeremy McNichols to stave off upset minded Rutgers. Army has now been blown out twice in a row after somehow winning their first 3. The difference was the passing game, as the Black Knights had just 19 yards passing. Western Kentucky all but clinched a spot in the round of 64 with another impressive victory, as they scored 28 of the first 31 points against the Longhorns and never looked back.

Week 6

Boise State- 37, Clemson- 18
Army- 49, Central Michigan- 24
Western Kentucky- 48, Rutgers- 30
South Florida- 48, Texas- 21

4 blowouts this week. Deshaun Watson threw for 343 yards, but the Tigers couldn't mount a ground game, nor could they stop Boise State defensively, as the Broncos get a big win. Army gets back on track, continuing to impress on the ground. They had 419 rushing yards in their win over the Chippewas. 2 Black Knights had over 100 yards rushing, including Andy Davidson who had 190. Wow! In a game that saw no turnovers from either team, the Hilltoppers took a 38-13 lead into halftime and put it on cruise control in the 2nd half to remain undefeated. South Florida also had 2 players rush for over 100 yards in their win over Texas.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Western Kentucky 6-0 (+152)
South Florida 4-2 (+78)
Boise State 4-2 (+38)
Clemson 4-2 (-3)
Army 4-2 (-32)
Central Michigan 1-5 (-67)
Texas 1-5 (-79)
Rutgers 0-6 (-87)

Week 7 Schedule

Army vs. Clemson
Western Kentucky vs. Boise State
Central Michigan vs. Texas
Rutgers vs. South Florida

- Here's what we know from this group: Western Kentucky has already clinched the group title, while Central Michigan, Texas, and Rutgers are eliminated. That gives us 4 teams playing for 3 spots in the round of 64. Group of death? I think so. The C. Michigan/Texas game is meaningless, as it is nothing but a game of pride. S. Florida should clinch advancement by rolling over Rutgers. The other 2 games are games to watch. The Army/Clemson loser will be at 4-3 and will have to hope some of the other 4-2 teams lose. Army needs to really win big, with their point differential so far in the negative. The game of the week is Western Kentucky and Boise State. The Army/Clemson loser will really be hoping for Boise State to lose, although it would be even tougher for Clemson if they lose to Army, because they also lost to Boise State. Simply put, Clemson pretty much has to beat Army. Boise State won't be eliminated right away with a loss, but that loss to Army really hurts, as it puts more pressure on them to beat the Hilltoppers. All that is on the line for Western Kentucky is an undefeated run through group play and a possible top 5 seed in the round of 64, so they have something to play for too.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group B

Week 7

Clemson- 21, Army- 14
Boise State- 41, Western Kentucky- 27
Texas- 34, Central Michigan- 16
South Florida- 41, Rutgers- 16

It wasn't easy, but the Tigers held off Army. It actually took a Deshaun Watson hookup to Artavis Scott with 24 seconds left in the game to put the Tigers on top, but it was enough. Boise State shocked Western Kentucky, ending their undefeated run. The Broncos scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win. As expected, Texas and South Florida roll in their games.

------------------------------------------------

Final Group B standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1- Western Kentucky 6-1 (+138)
#2- South Florida 5-2 (+103)
#3- Boise State 5-2 (+52)
#4- Clemson 5-2 (+4)
#5- Army 4-3 (-39)
#6- Texas 2-5 (-61)
#7- Central Michigan 1-6 (-85)
#8- Rutgers 0-7 (-112)

A surprising group to say the least. Western Kentucky comes out on top, but will not be happy with that Boise State loss. That could cost them a few precious seeds in the round of 64. The 4 teams that I thought would advance did, just not in the order I expected. I didn't count on Army doing as well as they did, and I figured Texas might fare better. In a different group, maybe. The Longhorns were definitely overmatched in this group.

As you can see, we had a 3 way tiebreaker. Just to recap, from other world cups I've done, I used the same tiebreaker format that Molson used for his World Cups. In case you forgot, here it is:

-2 Team Tie:
1. Head-to Head (if applicable)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
3. Winning % Of Teams Defeated
4. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
5. Coin Toss

-3+ team tie
(every step seeks to eliminate the bottom team, or bottom tied teams. Then the remaining teams go back to the first step of the tiebreaker procedure)
1. Head-To-Head within tied teams (if they've all played each other)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
3. Winning % Of Teams Defeated
4. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
5. Coin Toss

So since Boise St., S. Florida, and Clemson all went 1-1 against each other, that threw that one out. Clemson had the lowest point differential which locked them into the #4 seed. South Florida beat Boise State in Week 1 for the head to head tiebreaker for the #2 seed. So the point differential works out all the way in this one. Just a note, steps 3 and 4 of the tiebreaker will probably rarely, if ever, need to be used during group play, but they could need to be used once we get to round of 64 seedings.

So, the Group of Death is complete, and it is exactly what I thought it would be.. rough. No team came through unscathed.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group C

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten, 8-1, 11-2)
#20 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 7-4)
Akron (MAC, 3-5, 5-7)
Boston College (ACC, 2-6, 6-6)
Fresno State (Mountain West, 0-8, 1-11)
Kansas State (Big 12, 6-3, 8-4)
Memphis (American, 5-3, 8-4)
Old Dominion (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-3)

---------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Ohio State- 24, Old Dominion- 21
LSU- 37, Memphis- 30
Kansas State- 27, Akron- 26
Boston College- 18, Fresno State- 13

Lots of close games this week, as Ohio State needed a late FG to get by a scrappy Old Dominion team. Both LSU and Kansas State need big 4th quarter comebacks to stave off upsets, as both were down by 10 in the 4th quarter. Kansas State actually got down 26-10 in the 4th quarter of their game. As it stands, all the teams that were expected to win in Week 1 did, but they were much, much too close.

Week 2

Ohio State- 41, Memphis- 33
Old Dominion- 30, Kansas State- 27
LSU- 49, Fresno State- 3
Boston College- 29, Akron- 27

Some more excitement this week, as we had 2 games decided by field goals within the last 2 minutes. Boston College broke Akron's heart again when their kicker Mike Knoll kicked a FG with 1:18 left, while Old Dominion also got a last minute FG to stun Kansas State. The Ohio State/Memphis score was not nearly as close as the score indicates, as Memphis scored 23 points in the 4th quarter against an Ohio State relaxed defense. LSU had no such trouble, taking care of business in fine fashion.

Week 3

Ohio State- 35, Kansas State- 10
Memphis- 45, Fresno State- 10
Boston College- 27, Old Dominion- 24
LSU- 35, Akron- 27

Ohio State and Memphis have no trouble this week, as the Buckeyes surprisingly took it to K-State. Fresno State is just awful, they might not win a game. Akron loses another heartbreaker to LSU, especially after leading 14-3 after the 1st quarter, and might be the best 0-3 team so far in any of the groups that we've had (which isn't a lot to go off of yet!). Boston College got another late game victory with a Davon Jones 16 yard TD run with 37 seconds left in the game to seal another close victory.

------------------------------------------------------

Standings after 3 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

LSU 3-0 (+61)
Ohio State 3-0 (+36)
Boston College 3-0 (+10)
Memphis 1-2 (+20)
Old Dominion 1-2 (-3)
Kansas State 1-2 (-27)
Akron 0-3 (-11)
Fresno State 0-3 (-86)

No surprise to see LSU and Ohio State undefeated so far, although LSU did have a couple scares. Was really surprised to see the score of that K-State/OSU game, figured it would be closer. Speaking of my Wildcats, they've got some work to do to advance out of this group. That Old Dominion loss may come back to haunt them big time. Still too early to tell, but I don't expect BC to stay undefeated much longer, they still have to play the 3 big dogs (yes I'm still including Kansas State among the big dogs of this group). Akron is bound to get a win or 2, they've come way too close 3 times already. Fresno State might be looking for moral victories at this point, like perhaps single digit losses instead of double digit losses. Their best chance for a victory may be Akron.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group C

Week 4

Ohio State- 31, Fresno State- 14
Kansas State- 24, Boston College- 22
Memphis- 66, Akron- 24
LSU- 33, Old Dominion- 16

Only 1 really close game in Week 4, as Kansas State hung on to hand BC their first loss. Ohio State didn't pull away from Fresno State like most figured, needing 14 4th quarter points to get the job done. So much for Akron and their close games, Memphis took care of that by having almost 650 yards of total offense. Definitely didn't see that coming. Old Dominion is now having a tough time and will have to get some help to advance.

Week 5

Ohio State- 33, Boston College- 6
Fresno State- 34, Akron- 31
Kansas State- 37, LSU- 20
Memphis- 45, Old Dominion- 20

The big surprise this week is Kansas State handling LSU. The Wildcats scored the final 21 points of the game after going into the 4th quarter down 20-16. Another shocker, based on how this group has gone, is Fresno State beating Akron. 1 of those teams had to get their first win this week, but it wasn't who I thought it would be. Fresno had to come from behind to do it though, getting a go ahead TD with 1:28 left. Ohio State and Memphis roll, and BC hasn't fared well against the big dogs, which doesn't bode well for their chances.

Week 6

Akron- 22, Ohio State- 9
LSU- 23, Boston College- 9
Old Dominion- 23, Fresno State- 9
Kansas State- 20, Memphis- 13

What a crazy, crazy week! Look at that Ohio State score. They lose to Akron, the only team that hadn't won a game yet. And the consistency? 3 of the 4 games this week had either 22-9 or 23-9 scores. Lots of teams put themselves in good position to advance this week, but Kansas State has themselves in the best position.

----------------------------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

LSU 5-1 (+75)
Ohio State 5-1 (+67)
Kansas State 4-2 (-1)
Memphis 3-3 (+80)
Boston College 3-3 (-33)
Old Dominion 2-4 (-31)
Fresno State 1-5 (-114)
Akron 1-5 (-43)

Week 7 Schedule

LSU vs. Ohio State
Old Dominion vs. Akron
Boston College vs. Memphis
Fresno State vs. Kansas State

The LSU/Ohio State game was going to decide the group title anyways, but with the Buckeyes losing in Week 6, now the game takes extra meaning. While the winner will still win the group title, the loser could fall to 3rd in the group, depending on who loses. We're assuming K-State beats Fresno State. If that happens, they would hope for an Ohio State win, because the Cats own the tiebreaker over LSU, but Ohio State has the tiebreaker over the Cats. Now, if Kansas State somehow loses, then they'll be locked into 3rd no matter who wins the Memphis/BC game, as the Cats have defeated both teams. The winner of the Memphis/BC game would take 4th, the loser would be eliminated. Old Dominion, Akron, and Fresno State are already eliminated.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group C

Week 7

LSU- 26, Ohio State- 13
Old Dominion- 28, Akron- 13
Memphis- 33, Boston College- 15
Kansas State- 34, Fresno State- 19

Crazy finish to this group, as LSU pretty much dominates Ohio State to win the group, while Memphis dominates BC to get the 4th spot out of this group. K-State takes care of business and Old Dominion beats Akron in a meaningless game.

----------------------------------------------------

Final Group C standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1- LSU 6-1 (+88)
#2- Ohio State 5-2 (+54)
#3- Kansas State 5-2 (+14)
#4- Memphis 4-3 (+98)
#5- Boston College 3-4 (-51)
#6- Old Dominion 3-4 (-16)
#7- Fresno State 1-6 (-129)
#8- Akron 1-6 (-58)

So LSU wins the group and becomes the 2nd SEC team to win a group out of the 3 completed so far. Not a bad percentage. Kansas State is really, really kicking themselves for that 3 point loss to Old Dominion. Had they won that game and the rest of the results stayed the same, they would have won the group by virtue of their win over LSU. Instead, since they were pounded by Ohio State, they finish 3rd in group. Boston College is another team kicking themselves. After winning their first 3 games, they lost their last 4 to finish out of the top 4 in their group. They do finish 5th on tiebreakers by virtue of their win over Old Dominion, and Fresno State won the head to head over Akron to finish 7th, but neither of those things means anything.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group D

#4 Washington (Pac 12, 8-1, 12-1)
#22 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 9-4)
Appalachian State (Sun Belt, 7-1, 10-3)
BYU (Independents, NA, 8-4)
Kentucky (SEC, 4-4, 7-5)
Maryland (Big Ten, 3-6, 6-6)
Texas Tech (Big 12, 3-6, 5-7)
UCF (American, 4-4, 6-7)

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Washington- 61, UCF- 14
Texas Tech- 31, Virginia Tech- 28
Maryland- 41, Appalachian State- 23
Kentucky- 31, BYU- 23

The Huskies forced 4 UCF turnovers in rolling to an easy group opening victory. Meanwhile, we had some surprises in the other games, as Texas Tech got a late TD to stun Virginia Tech, while Maryland was all over App. State. Some surprising results IMO from Week 1.

Week 2

Washington- 48, Texas Tech- 32
Maryland- 24, UCF- 20
Virginia Tech- 27, Kentucky- 17
Appalachian State- 37, BYU- 9

The Huskies led by as many as 28 in this one, rolling to another victory. Virginia Tech gets their first win after trailing by 10 at one point. Maryland got up by 21 in their game but had to hold off a furious UCF rally, while App. St. shocked BYU by scoring 28 unanswered.

Week 3

Washington- 41, Maryland- 24
Texas Tech- 41, Kentucky- 27
BYU- 9, UCF- 3
Virginia Tech- 34, Appalachian State- 13

Washington continues to roll, leading from start to finish in their game. The BYU/UCF game was an absolute dud. 4 FG and barely 550 yards of total offense amongst the teams. Geez. What can you expect from 2 winless team that lost their first 2 games by an average of 24 points each (give or take). The Techsters seem like they are back in contention. Both VA Tech and Texas Tech.

--------------------------------------------------------

Standings after 3 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Washington 3-0 (+80)
Virginia Tech 2-1 (+28)
Maryland 2-1 (+5)
Texas Tech 2-1 (+1)
Appalachian State 1-2 (-2)
Kentucky 1-2 (-16)
BYU 1-2 (-39)
UCF 0-3 (-57)

No surprise to see Washington at the top of the group, but I am a little surprised to see BYU and Kentucky near the bottom. Maryland is doing a bit better than I expected. Still pretty early, but the road to the group title goes through Washington.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group D

Week 4

Washington- 48, Kentucky- 21
Maryland- 24, BYU- 19
Texas Tech- 31, Appalachian State- 17
Virginia Tech- 30, UCF- 9

20 points in the 4th quarter sealed the deal for the Huskies and kept them undefeated. The rest of the results went as planned, and unless something majorly crazy happens, the 4 teams coming out of this group are already close to being decided.

Week 5

Washington- 49, BYU- 10
Appalachian State- 40, Kentucky- 37
Maryland- 51, Virginia Tech- 27
Texas Tech- 31, UCF- 24

2 shocking scores here, as Maryland continued to roll, hammering the Hokies by 24. Meanwhile, Washington continues to pound their opponents, furthering BYU's troubles in this group. Appalachian State wins a wild one against Kentucky to give themselves a fighting chance, while Texas Tech staves off UCF late.

Week 6

Washington- 31, Appalachian State- 30
Virginia Tech- 19, BYU- 13
Kentucky- 38, UCF- 31 (2 OT)
Texas Tech- 34, Maryland- 17

A gallant effort by App. St in this one, as it took a 32 yard FG from Washington kicker Cameron Van Winkle to secure the victory and clinch the group title for the Huskies! Also a gallant effort by UCF, who took Kentucky to double overtime. Better effort by BYU, but they are still completely tanking in this World Cup. Texas Tech clinches the #2 seed out of Group D with their win over Maryland.

-----------------------------------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Washington 6-0 (+147)
Texas Tech 5-1 (+39)
Maryland 4-2 (+17)
Virginia Tech 4-2 (+31)
Appalachian State 2-4 (-14)
Kentucky 2-4 (-39)
BYU 1-5 (-89)
UCF 0-6 (-92)

Week 7 Schedule

Virginia Tech vs. Washington
UCF vs. Appalachian State
BYU vs. Texas Tech
Kentucky vs. Maryland

This could very well be the most uneventful Week 7 we've had in any of the groups so far. Everything is pretty much decided. We know the 4 teams advancing from Group D, and we pretty much know what place they will finish in the group. Washington has won the group. Even if they lose and Texas Tech wins in Week 7, because Washington beat Texas Tech head to head. The Red Raiders beat both Maryland and Virginia Tech, so even if they lose, they'll hold the head to head tiebreaker over both the Terps and the Hokies. Maryland beat Virginia Tech easily so they have that head to head. The only way we'll see a shake-up in placing is if Maryland loses to Kentucky, and Virginia Tech beats Washington. Otherwise, the only thing these teams are playing for in Week 7 is for seeding in the Round of 64, trying to be the top seed amongst the teams that placed the same way they did. Should be a boring Week 7 sim coming up.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group D

Week 7

Washington- 38, Virginia Tech- 27
Appalachian State- 26, UCF- 20
BYU- 27, Texas Tech- 24
Kentucky- 45, Maryland- 34

Washington finishes off an undefeated run in group play, as the top 3 teams behind Washington all lose. Again, everything had already been decided, but it was good for App. St., Kentucky, and BYU to finish with wins.

---------------------------------------------------

Final Group D standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1- Washington 7-0 (+158)
#2- Texas Tech 5-2 (+36)
#3- Maryland 4-3 (+6)
#4- Virginia Tech 4-3 (+20)
#5- Appalachian State 3-4 (-8)
#6- Kentucky 3-4 (-28)
#7- BYU 2-5 (-86)
#8- UCF 0-7 (-98)

Tough going for BYU, who was definitely the most disappointing team in this group. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech becomes the second top 25 ranked team in the CFP rankings to finish 4th in their group. Not a good trend. Clemson is the only one so far with a 5-2 record though, they just had tough luck in tiebreakers. Texas Tech, Maryland, and VA Tech will be kicking themselves for not having better results in week 7, as it could make the difference in seed lines. No real surprise to see Washington run away with this group.

25% of the groups are done, and a fair amount of surprises so far. Group E tomorrow.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group E

#5 Penn State (Big Ten, 8-1, 11-2)
California (Pac 12, 3-6, 5-7)
Houston (American, 5-3, 9-4)
Miami (OH) (MAC, 6-2, 6-6)
Mississippi State (SEC, 3-5, 5-7)
N.C. State (ACC, 3-5, 6-6)
New Mexico (Mountain West, 6-2, 9-4)
Texas State (Sun Belt, 0-8, 2-10)

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Penn State- 47, Texas State- 6
New Mexico- 31, California- 28
N.C. State- 33, Houston- 20
Mississippi State- 24, Miami (OH)- 17

No big surprise to see Penn St. roll, as that should be the theme for this entire group. The biggest shock is how easily N.C. State handled Houston. The Wolfpack scored the last 16 points of the game, while New Mexico got a TD pass with just over a minute left to beat Cal.

Week 2

Penn State- 48, New Mexico- 21
N.C. State- 23, Texas State- 21
California- 51, Mississippi State- 30
Houston- 37, Miami (OH)- 23

We almost had the shocker of the tournament so far, as it took a made FG at the buzzer for the Wolfpack to beat Texas State. A gallant effort on their part. Meanwhile, Penn State continued to roll, while Cal put up some points in an impressive showing over the Bulldogs. Houston gets on track with a win as well.

Week 3

Penn State- 24, N.C. State- 10
New Mexico- 27, Mississippi State- 17
Miami (OH)- 30, Texas State- 13
California- 38, Houston- 31

The surprise right now continues to be Houston, as they lost another game to a team they should have beaten. Meanwhile, Miami (OH) gets a win in the battle of winless teams, while Penn State survives their worst offensive game of the tournament thus far. Fortunately, the defense stepped up as the Nittany Lions won in the battle of unbeaten.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Standings after 3 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Penn State 3-0 (+82)
California 2-1 (+25)
N.C. State 2-1 (+1)
New Mexico 2-1 (-14)
Miami (OH) 1-2 (-4)
Houston 1-2 (-6)
Mississippi State 1-2 (-24)
Texas State 0-3 (-60)

No surprise to see Penn State leading the way. I figured Houston would make a better showing than they have so far. Kind of interesting to see Miami (OH) and Houston having a better point differential than New Mexico, especially when the Lobos have 2 wins already and the other teams only have 1. All that really mean is that the margin of New Mexico's loss was greater than the margin of the 2 losses that Miami (OH) and Houston each have. Still gotta win the games, because a 1 point win holds more weight than a 1 point loss.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group E

Week 4

Penn State- 34, Mississippi State- 17
N.C. State- 38, Miami (OH)- 16
Houston- 29, New Mexico- 17
California- 49, Texas State- 0

A nice statement game for Cal. Even though it was against one of the worst teams in NCAA football, they still pitched a shutout which is impressive no matter who it's against. Houston rights the ship, for now.

Week 5

Penn State- 35, Miami (OH)- 33
Mississippi State- 18, Houston- 10
N.C. State- 41, California- 34
New Mexico- 27, Texas State- 13

What a game between Penn State and Miami (OH). The Nittany Lions trailed by 14 points twice but rallied to take the lead. Down 8 points late, Miami (OH) got a 10 yard TD run from Spencer McInnis with 51 seconds left in the game, but couldn't convert the 2 point attempt, so they still trailed by 2. Penn State recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock to stay undefeated in what wasn't expect to be a test, but was. Houston continues their up and down streak, losing again to fall under .500 while N.C. State gets a big win against Cal, all but putting Penn State in the drivers seat to win the group.

Week 6

Penn State- 41, Houston- 38 (3 OT)
California- 34, Miami (OH)- 24
Mississippi State- 24, Texas State- 10
N.C. State- 55, New Mexico- 14

Another instant classic for the Nittany Lions, who keep hanging on by a thread, literally. The Cougars forced overtime after a Mulbah Car 4 yard TD run with 20 seconds left in the game. This was Car's only carry of the game, and it came at a huge time. After both teams scored the TD + 1 in the first 2 OTs, the Penn State defense came up huge, forcing a Houston fumble as the Cougars started with the ball in the 3rd OT. This was all Penn State kicker Tyler Davis needed, as he booted a 36 yard FG to win the game, keep the Nittany Lions undefeated, and all but eliminate the Cougars from this World Cup. N.C. State made a statement of their own, pounding the Lobos to clinch 2nd place in this group. Meanwhile, Mississippi State beat winless Texas State to stay alive, and Cal also won, helping their chances to advance.

-------------------------------------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Penn State 6-0 (+104)
N.C. State 5-1 (+71)
California 4-2 (+77)
New Mexico 3-3 (-53)
Mississippi State 3-3 (-19)
Houston 2-4 (-5)
Miami (OH) 1-5 (-38)
Texas State 0-6 (-137)

Week 7 Schedule

California vs. Penn State
Texas State vs. Houston
Miami (OH) vs. New Mexico
Mississippi State vs. N.C. State

Penn State has clinched the Group E title. Even if Cal beats them and N.C. State beats Mississippi State, Penn State handed the Wolfpack their only loss so far, so they own that tiebreaker. Same thing with N.C. State and Cal. If Cal wins and N.C. State loses, N.C. State would still finish second on a head to head tiebreaker. So.. the first 2 seeds in this group are locked up, and we have 3 teams battling for 3rd and 4th place. Cal will lock up their spot in the round of 64 by beating Penn State, no easy task. Mississippi State also has an unenviable task as well, needing to beat a very hot N.C. State squad. New Mexico is licking their chops as they get the best possible deal, going up against Miami (OH). It's quite possible that we could have a 3 team tiebreaker, as I expect Cal to lose to Penn State. It's also just as possible for a 2 team tiebreaker. We'll see what the cards hold. Houston, Miami (OH), and Texas State are just playing for pride at this point, all 3 having been officially eliminated.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group E

Week 7

California- 34, Penn State- 12
Houston- 34, Texas State- 3
New Mexico- 27, Miami (OH)- 25
N.C. State- 38, Mississippi State- 20

Wow! Did not expect that Cal result. Penn State must have rested their starters or something. That loss will definitely knock them down a few seeds. Good for Cal though, as they clinch a spot, and although it wouldn't have mattered with Mississippi State losing, New Mexico needed a failed 2 point conversion from Miami (OH) to escape with a victory. Houston finishes on a good note, while Miami (OH) and Texas State bring up the rear.

---------------------------------------------------

Final Group E standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1- Penn State 6-1 (+82)
#2- N.C. State 6-1 (+89)
#3- California 5-2 (+99)
#4- New Mexico 4-3 (-51)
#5- Mississippi State 3-4 (-37)
#6- Houston 3-4 (+26)
#7- Miami (OH) 1-6 (-40)
#8- Texas State 0-7 (-168)

That loss to Cal is going to knock Penn State down quite a few seeds. Not only did it ruin a chance to go undefeated in group play, but as of now, of the 3 teams that won their group with a 6-1 record, they have the smallest point differential. N.C. State is in good position with their 6-1 record, and Cal is a good bet to finish at the top of all the 3rd place finishers, especially with that point differential. I don't see too many 6-1 teams finishing 3rd place in their group. On the other hand, New Mexico will probably be leading the bottom of the 4th place finishers, especially with that lousy point differential.

Group F will be a few days, as I am off for the next 4 days, so plan on Group F being simmed next Tuesday.

[bbgunn]

Good stuff so far!

[collegesportsfanms]

Group F

#6 Michigan (Big Ten, 7-2, 10-2)
#23 Pittsburgh (ACC, 5-3, 8-4)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt, 7-1, 8-5)
Cincinnati (American, 1-7, 4-8)
Colorado State (Mountain West, 5-3, 7-5)
Missouri (SEC, 2-6, 4-8)
Oregon (Pac 12, 2-7, 4-8)
Southern Miss (Conference USA, 4-4, 7-6)

--------------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Michigan- 38, Southern Miss- 16
Pittsburgh- 38, Oregon- 17
Arkansas State- 22, Missouri- 17
Colorado State- 29, Cincinnati- 28

A 21 point 2nd quarter all but sealed this one for the Wolverines. Pitt surprisingly has no trouble with Oregon, I kinda thought maybe this would be a redemption game for the Ducks, but I guess not. Although record wise, it really isn't, I consider Arkansas State beating Missouri an upset, and Colorado State scored twice in the last 5 minutes, both touchdowns, with the final one coming with 5 seconds left, to overcome a 28-16 deficit and stun Cincinnati.

Week 2

Oregon- 31, Michigan- 24
Southern Miss- 37, Missouri- 24
Pittsburgh- 38, Colorado State- 21
Arkansas State- 30, Cincinnati- 14

Unbelievable! The Ducks get walloped by Pitt, but somehow recover to stun Michigan. This has the makings of a wild group. That was the closest game this week, as the rest were double digit wins. Pitt continues to put up the points, and Arkansas State continues to surprise, at least they are surprising me.

Week 3

Michigan- 50, Missouri- 31
Colorado State- 49, Oregon- 48
Southern Miss- 24, Cincinnati- 20
Arkansas State- 27, Pittsburgh- 23

Another week of stunners, as Arkansas State continues to roll, beating 3 teams I really thought they'd struggle with. The Wolverines get back in control of things, hammering a hapless Missouri defense. Southern Miss got out to a 21-0 lead and held on to beat Cincinnati. The meltdown of the week, and probably the tournament to this point, has to go to Oregon though. They led Colorado State 41-14 at halftime, but the Rams dominated the 2nd half, outscoring the Ducks 35-7. The comeback was complete when Dalyn Dawkins got a 3 yard TD run with 1:25 left. The defense held, and Oregon left the field wondering what the heck just happened.

--------------------------------------------

Standings after 3 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Arkansas State 3-0 (+25)
Michigan 2-1 (+34)
Pittsburgh 2-1 (+34)
Southern Miss 2-1 (-5)
Colorado State 2-1 (-15)
Oregon 1-2 (-15)
Cincinnati 0-3 (-21)
Missouri 0-3 (-37)

Anybody else surprised to still see Arkansas State undefeated, and Michigan with a loss already? I for sure am. Not just Michigan, but both the Wolverines and Pitt have lost already. I was pretty confident they could both get through undefeated until they had to play each other. That Oregon collapse could be monumental, let's see how it effects them the rest of this group. Cincinnati and Missouri continue to struggle, looking for their first win. Ironically, they play each other in Week 4, so one of them will get that win very soon.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group F

Week 4

Michigan- 25, Colorado State- 20
Missouri- 45, Cincinnati- 16
Oregon- 34, Arkansas State- 31
Pittsburgh- 51, Southern Miss- 17

In what continues to be one of the most unpredictable groups, the Wolverines struggled this week, getting down 14-3 and having to rely on a Wilton Speight to Ty Isaac 17 yard TD pass with 43 seconds left to escape with the victory. Oregon was involved in another 2nd half collapse, but this time they benefited from it. The Ducks fell behind 28-0 after 1 quarter, but played stellar defense the last 3 quarters, getting a 19 yard Aiden Schneider FG at the buzzer to hand Arkansas State their first loss. Meanwhile, Pitt got the offense going again, pounding Southern Miss.

Week 5

Michigan- 33, Cincinnati- 9
Arkansas State- 24, Colorado State- 21
Missouri- 30, Pittsburgh- 23
Southern Miss- 45, Oregon- 38 (OT)

You really have to feel for Oregon. I mean really. For the 3rd straight week, they were involved in a 2nd half collapse, and once again, they were on the wrong end of it. They jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the 2nd quarter, but Southern Miss fought back, sending the game to OT with a 49 yard FG from Parker Shaunfield. The Ducks couldn't score in OT, and a 4 yard TD run by Ito Smith completed the comeback for the Golden Eagles and had the Ducks once again saying, what if. Meanwhile, Missouri is starting to get hot, as they get a 37 yard Ish Witter TD run with 18 seconds left to stun Pitt, and the Wolverines dominate Cincinnati, keeping them winless.

Week 6

Michigan- 45, Arkansas State- 3
Pittsburgh- 29, Cincinnati- 14
Colorado State- 66, Southern Miss- 28
Oregon- 49, Missouri- 42

Another crazy week, as the Wolverines completely destroyed Arkansas State in a battle of 1 loss teams, while Colorado State also kept their chances alive by atoning for over 700 yards of offense in a 38 point whoopin of Southern Miss. Pitt got by old Big East rival Cincinnati, while Oregon won a shootout in a battle of the 2 teams most looking for redemption in this tournament, leaving Week 7 wide open.

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Michigan 5-1 (+105)
Arkansas State 4-2 (-17)
Pittsburgh 4-2 (+76)
Colorado State 3-3 (+15)
Oregon 3-3 (-12)
Southern Miss 3-3 (-70)
Missouri 2-4 (-8)
Cincinnati 0-6 (-89)

Week 7 Schedule

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan
Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State
Cincinnati vs. Oregon
Colorado State vs. Missouri

Believe it or not, Michigan is the only team to have clinched advancement into the Round of 64. Cincinnati is eliminated, and the other 6 schools still have life. Even Missouri, at 2-4, still has a chance, but A LOT of things would have to go right for them to advance. The Wolverines still need to beat Pitt to clinch the group, while Pitt is hoping to beat Michigan and have Arkansas State lose. If that were to happen, Pitt would own the head to head tiebreaker over Michigan. If Pitt beats Michigan and Arkansas State beats Southern Miss, then we would have a 3 way tie for 1st place with 3 teams at 4-2, and all having went 1-1 against each other, it would go to point differential. There is where Arkansas State is in a tough position with their negative point differential, they would need to win by about 100. Not gonna happen, so simply put, the Michigan-Pitt winner ultimately will win this group. Missouri MUST beat Colorado State and then have Oregon and Southern Miss lose as well, that's the only chance they have. Arkansas State clinches advancement with a win. Lots of scenarios that could play out, and the way this group has unfolded so far, probably will.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group F

Week 7

Michigan- 19, Pittsburgh- 3
Southern Miss- 61, Arkansas State- 53 (4 OT)
Oregon- 45, Cincinnati- 37
Colorado State- 30, Missouri- 3

So the Wolverines take care of business, holding Pitt to just over 250 yards in a group clinching win. Oregon holds off Cincinnati as the Bearcats finish winless, while Colorado State has no trouble with the Tigers. The game of the week saw 7 lead changes and 4 overtimes, as neither team could gain an advantage over the other. In the end, Southern Miss prevailed to cap off a wild, wild week and a wild, wild group.

---------------------------------------------------------

Final Group F standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

After that loss to Oregon, the Wolverines end up winning the group easily. Now, that leaves 5 teams at 4-3, fighting for 3 spots. So guess what, tiebreaker galore coming up. We would first need to eliminate 2 teams, starting with the lowest ranked team. So I figured the records for head to head amongst the 5 teams, and Oregon, with those 2 embarrassing collapses, falls short with a 1-3 mark, while the other 4 teams were either 2-2 or 3-1. So Oregon finishes 6th in the group. Now we still needed to eliminate 1 more team, so we put the 4 teams together head to head against the 3 other teams. Arkansas State and Pitt were 2-1 against the others, while Colorado State and Southern Miss were 1-2. So that meant we went to point differential, and Southern Miss had the lowest point differential, so they are eliminated. Now we get to do it again for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place. 3 teams, head to head against the other 2 teams. Colorado State lost to both Pitt and Arkansas State, so they get the 4th seed out of this group. And since Arkansas State beat Pitt, they take 2nd, the Panthers take 3rd. Whew, what a mess, but when it is all said and done, these are the final standings for Group F:

#1- Michigan 6-1 (+124)
#2- Arkansas State 4-3 (-25)
#3- Pittsburgh 4-3 (+57)
#4- Colorado State 4-3 (+42)
#5- Southern Miss 4-3 (-62)
#6- Oregon 4-3 (-4)
#7- Missouri 2-5 (-35)
#8- Cincinnati 0-7 (97)

Not really surprised to see the Wolverines run through this group like they did. I think they got totally shafted in the real CFP (but hey, that's another matter). I was just waiting for the group that was so messed up that I would need a million tiebreakers to figure it out, and I got one today with this group. Gotta feel for Oregon. Take away those 2 games where they completely collapsed, with being the only team to beat Michigan, they would have won the group. As it stands, now they are on the outside looking in. Well, my brain is completely fried now, I'm still not 100% sure I'm applying the tiebreakers as they should truly be applied, but screw it. It's close enough. Next group coming up tomorrow.

[tgray649]

Good stuff. How did you determine your pools?

[collegesportsfanms]

Originally Posted by tgray649

Good stuff. How did you determine your pools?

Basically I placed the top 16 teams per the final CFP standings as the top teams in each group, then for the rest, I just went conference by conference, using a random dice roller to place the rest of the teams in a group, making sure there was no more than 1 member of each conference in a group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group G

#7 Oklahoma (Big 12, 9-0, 10-2)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt, 4-4, 5-7)
Iowa (Big Ten, 6-3, 8-4)
North Texas (Conference USA, 3-5, 5-7)
Notre Dame (Independents, NA, 4-8)
Texas A&M (SEC, 4-4, 8-4)
Utah State (Mountain West, 1-7, 3-9)
Wake Forest (ACC, 3-5, 6-6)

--------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Oklahoma- 73, Wake Forest- 7
Utah State- 45, Georgia Southern- 12
Iowa- 29, Texas A&M- 23
Notre Dame- 37, North Texas- 0

Lots of blowouts this week, with Notre Dame shutting out N. Texas, getting the first shoutout of this group. Did not see Oklahoma beating Wake Forest by 66 points. That's crazy. Iowa/Texas A&M didn't disappoint, but for the most part, the Hawkeyes even dominated in that game.

Week 2

Oklahoma- 40, Utah State- 17
Texas A&M- 30, Wake Forest- 6
Notre Dame- 69, Georgia Southern- 22
Iowa- 34, North Texas- 13

Another week full of blowouts, as we are quickly separating the pretenders from the contenders in this group. Notre Dame had over 600 yards of offense in their pasting of GA Southern. North Texas looked like they were going to be shutout again until rallying to score 13 late points, against Iowa's 2nd and 3rd string defense of course. A&M gets on the winning side and Oklahoma is making a strong case for the overall #1 seed early on.

Week 3

Texas A&M- 45, Oklahoma- 24
Notre Dame- 50, Utah State- 17
North Texas- 17, Wake Forest- 13
Iowa- 36, Georgia Southern- 14

The Aggies pull the first upset (albeit a mild one) of this tournament, blanking the Sooners in the 2nd half to break open a 24-24 halftime tie and get themselves right back into contention. The Irish continue to roll, and now they are making a case for the overall #1 seed. Iowa stays undefeated, and North Texas gets their first win of group play by in a defensive struggle.

--------------------------------------------------

Standings after 3 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Notre Dame 3-0 (+114)
Iowa 3-0 (+49)
Texas A&M 2-1 (+39)
Oklahoma 2-1 (+68)
Utah State 1-2 (-23)
North Texas 1-2 (-54)
Wake Forest 0-3 (-94)
Georgia Southern 0-3 (-99)

So the 2 undefeated teams still have to play each other and while Iowa has the edge on Notre Dame based on the fact they've already beaten Texas A&M, neither of these teams have an easy path in the last 4 weeks. Notre Dame won their games that they were supposed to win, but still have to do battle with Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Iowa. I feel like there is still a major separation between the top 4 teams and bottom 4 teams in this group though.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group G

Week 4

Oklahoma- 52, Notre Dame- 31
Texas A&M- 35, North Texas- 14
Iowa- 26, Utah State- 21
Georgia Southern- 38, Wake Forest- 23

No big surprise to see the Fighting Irish lose when they have to battle a tough opponent, it's been kind of their theme the last few seasons. Iowa is now the only undefeated team in this group, but they had to hang on against a scrappy Utah State team. Wake Forest continues to disappoint, as they are still winless, and Texas A&M wins the battle of the 2 Texas schools rather handily.

Week 5

Oklahoma- 30, North Texas- 20
Iowa- 20, Notre Dame- 13
Texas A&M- 37, Georgia Southern- 24
Utah State- 35, Wake Forest- 13

It took the Sooners a while to wake up in this one as they fell behind 14-0 in the 1st Quarter, but they finally got it together to escape what would have been a disastrous loss. After being held in check for almost 55 minutes of this game, Iowa finally found some offense, scoring 2 TDs in the last 4 minutes of the game to stun the Irish and stay undefeated. Texas A&M continues to roll, and Wake Forest continues to suck.

Week 6

Iowa- 41, Oklahoma- 20
Georgia Southern- 23, North Texas- 20
Notre Dame- 23, Wake Forest- 8
Utah State- 41, Texas A&M- 38

A lot of surprises this week, as Iowa clinches the group title by pounding Oklahoma, and Utah State stays alive for possible advancement by stunning Texas A&M in a game which saw 6 lead changes. The final lead change came when Utah State's Kent Myers hit LaJuan hunt for a 9 yard TD pass with just over 2 minutes to go. The Irish keep Wake Forest winless, and GA Southern gets a who cares win in a meaningless game over North Texas.

-----------------------------------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Iowa 6-0 (+81)
Notre Dame 4-2 (+101)
Oklahoma 4-2 (+78)
Texas A&M 4-2 (+70)
Utah State 3-3 (-2)
Georgia Southern 2-4 (-94)
North Texas 1-5 (-88)
Wake Forest 0-6 (-146)

Week 7 Schedule

Georgia Southern vs. Oklahoma
Wake Forest vs. Iowa
North Texas vs. Utah State
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

We know that Iowa has won the group, and should beat Wake Forest to finish the group undefeated and earn a fairly high seed in the Round of 64. Even if Wake pulls the upset, the Hawkeyes would still be a top 16 seed. Then we have some drama. Not much, but a bit. Utah State still has life because either Notre Dame or Texas A&M will fall to 4-3. First, Utah State needs to do their part by beating North Texas, which won't be quite as easy as it sounds. If they lose to North Texas, nothing else matters. However, if they win, then they will be pulling for the Irish to beat Texas A&M. If that happens, Utah State would be in by virtue of head to head tiebreaker. Even if Utah State wins, it won't matter if Texas A&M beats Notre Dame, because the Irish hold the head to head tiebreaker over Utah State.

As for 2nd place, we're just going to assume that Oklahoma runs all over Georgia Southern, which means we'd have a 2 way tie for 2nd place. If Oklahoma wins and Notre Dame wins, Oklahoma would take 2nd on a head to head tiebreaker. If Oklahoma wins and Texas A&M wins, then Texas A&M would take 2nd based on head to head tiebreaker. In the rare case that Utah State wins and Oklahoma loses, now we're looking at a 3 way tiebreaker for 3rd place, but the chances of that happening have to be less than 1%. Then again, stranger things have happened.

[collegesportsfanms]

Week 7 is going to be delayed for a few hours as I have to get to a meeting, but I'll have it done sometime this afternoon.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group G

Week 7

Oklahoma- 28, Georgia Southern- 23
Iowa- 23, Wake Forest- 6
Utah State- 24, North Texas- 13
Texas A&M- 54, Notre Dame- 29

Wow! Oklahoma needed 2 late field goals to survive against Georgia Southern, but they got it done to safely advance to the round of 64. Iowa again struggles offensively, but plays good enough defense to get through the group undefeated. Utah State does their part to advance by beating North Texas, but Texas A&M completely obliterated Notre Dame, and Utah State knows that means their tournament is over.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Final Group G standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1- Iowa 7-0 (+98)
#2- Texas A&M 5-2 (+95)
#3- Oklahoma 5-2 (+83)
#4- Notre Dame 4-3 (+76)
#5- Utah State 4-3 (+9)
#6- Georgia Southern 2-5 (-99)
#7- North Texas 1-6 (-99)
#8- Wake Forest 0-7 (-163)

Another surprising group, as Iowa goes through undefeated. The 7-0 mark will earn them a high seed, but there are a couple other undefeated teams that have much higher point differentials. Texas A&M wins the head to head tiebreaker with Oklahoma, so the Aggies get 2nd place and Oklahoma slides to 3rd. Notre Dame wins the head to head tiebreaker with Utah State, so the Irish qualify as the 4th team out of Group G, and Utah State is eliminated, but what a gutsy effort. This group played out kind of like I thought it would, with the big 4 teams advancing, but I'm most disappointed in Wake Forest, who couldn't even figure out a way to win against teams like GA Southern and North Texas. Very disappointing.