2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[panerd]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Nobody but you, the one true arbiter of right and wrong.

OK...

He makes comment that he can't wait for Team A to complain about Team B when they were quiet when Team B was complaining about Team A.

But you are right this whole L/R paradigm is just a creation on mine because of how smart I am and in reality isn't the ridiculous way a large percentage of the electorate votes and makes up their mind about issues.

No media bias either whatsoever. I did find the Biden story on CNN.com right next to whether the Patriots kicker is covering his racist tattoo.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

What happens if Biden is out? I guess a brokered convention Veep-style.

As messy as that sounds, I'd certainly prefer this to Biden staying in the race and would undoubtedly lead to a better candidate.

Would it? A brokered convention just hands the White House to Trump as the factions would break out into open divisiveness a mere 3 months before the election (remember, the Convention has been postponed to August due to COVID 19). It'd look like the 1968 Democratic Convention at best.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Would it? A brokered convention just hands the White House to Trump as the factions would break out into open divisiveness a mere 3 months before the election (remember, the Convention has been postponed to August due to COVID 19). It'd look like the 1968 Democratic Convention at best.

Fear of losing the WH is what led to the misguided consolidation of support around Biden. Fear of losing the WH is what led to supporting terrible stimulus bills. Democrats operating out of fear is the norm but is it ever effective?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Fear of losing the WH is what led to the misguided consolidation of support around Biden. Fear of losing the WH is what led to supporting terrible stimulus bills. Democrats operating out of fear is the norm but is it ever effective?

I personally believe Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump and everyone else would have a much harder time. I believed this when I was backing and sending money to Warren and I still believe it. Deliberately cleaving bare the differences in the party is going to lead to severely depressed turnout among the losing faction. Right now, Bernie is trying his best to smooth over progressives by an effusive backing. And aside from a few nutters, it seems to be working.

[BishopMVP]

The potential for a brokered convention is always fun to debate (even if it never happens) and it'd be doubly so now. Let's say this picks up steam & Biden drops out within the next month - that still gives 3 months where the Democrats can't run primaries but can coalesce around a candidate. I can't see Bernie actually being the party line candidate, same with Bloomberg from the other side of the D spectrum. Would Warren be able to middle that difference (and use the "I'm the one you can trust doesn't have sexual assault skeletons in my closet and my other ones are already known" in her favor)? Rallying around Cuomo would be dumb imo since I agree he hasn't handled this that well, he's an abrasive New Yorker, and he probably has plenty of dirt available to be dug up. Michelle Obama is the wildcard who could step right into the Obama machine & be familiar with many of the key operatives, and maybe "there's no viable candidate 6 months away from the election and a pandemic/the poor response to that is causing irreperable harm to the future of the country" is enough for her to accept being nominated for a job she doesn't want.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

What happens if Biden is out? I guess a brokered convention Veep-style.

As messy as that sounds, I'd certainly prefer this to Biden staying in the race and would undoubtedly lead to a better candidate.

The party tears itself apart from Sanders getting passed over despite finishing second. Trump wins re-election

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

The potential for a brokered convention is always fun to debate (even if it never happens) and it'd be doubly so now. Let's say this picks up steam & Biden drops out within the next month - that still gives 3 months where the Democrats can't run primaries but can coalesce around a candidate. I can't see Bernie actually being the party line candidate, same with Bloomberg from the other side of the D spectrum. Would Warren be able to middle that difference (and use the "I'm the one you can trust doesn't have sexual assault skeletons in my closet and my other ones are already known" in her favor)? Rallying around Cuomo would be dumb imo since I agree he hasn't handled this that well, he's an abrasive New Yorker, and he probably has plenty of dirt available to be dug up. Michelle Obama is the wildcard who could step right into the Obama machine & be familiar with many of the key operatives, and maybe "there's no viable candidate 6 months away from the election and a pandemic/the poor response to that is causing irreperable harm to the future of the country" is enough for her to accept being nominated for a job she doesn't want.

In that context, there are probably only two potential choices that could possibly work out: Senator Sherrod Brown or Governor Gavin Newsom (and even then, he's only been a Gov for a year). Sen Brown could have been a very formidable contender but he didn't want to run for the job - and you lose a Senate seat that way.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by bronconick

The party tears itself apart from Sanders getting passed over despite finishing second. Trump wins re-election

It's hard to see how Biden remaining as the candidate doesn't tear Democrats apart. I'll preface this by admitting that he was probably my last choice out of the field so maybe I'm just biased against him... but I've heard enough and I want him gone.

This makes everyone else a hypocrite except for me. Am I doing this right?

[ISiddiqui]

I mean, general caveats re: polling, but Biden has decent leads in Florida and Arizona right now over Trump.

[Vegas Vic]

Well, at least Joe Biden isn't a hypocrite. Here are his sentiments on the issue of sexual assault allegations.

When a woman alleges sexual assault, presume she is telling the truth, Biden says - Los Angeles Times

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Well, at least Joe Biden isn't a hypocrite. Here are his sentiments on the issue of sexual assault allegations.

When a woman alleges sexual assault, presume she is telling the truth, Biden says - Los Angeles Times

For what it's worth, I'm willing to give Biden the benefit of the doubt here. I think he probably does believe Reade's allegations.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by panerd

I find it mind boggling on both sides but I am just a mindless stooge who thinks maybe there should be more alternatives to the most important position in the world than Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

There are.. Lots of them. One of those two will win, but it isn't because there aren't other choices. It's because most people will not consider the other choices.

Originally Posted by Molson

If it's between those two, I'd take serial killer Biden over Trump.

Your other comment is noted, but this is a big part of why we are where we are. When you get to a point where the need/desire to win means nothing is disqualifying, there is nothing that can't be justified and also nothing that politicians can't get away with.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I mean, general caveats re: polling, but Biden has decent leads in Florida and Arizona right now over Trump.

And we're getting to the point where these polls actually do mean something. Over the last 3 general elections the polling 6 months out has been 2 points more dem, 2 points more republican, and 6 points more republican than the polling indicated.

Obama's first election was a big swing, but the last two have held fairly close to the polling even this far out, which could be indicative of the current partisanship. There just isn't the number of swing voters out there that there used to be.

You Can Pay Attention To Those Trump vs. Biden Polls. But Be Cautious. | FiveThirtyEight

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

There are.. Lots of them. One of those two will win, but it isn't because there aren't other choices. It's because most people will not consider the other choices.

I agree. Biden won because a large number of voters consider him a safer bet than the alternatives. If this was an election against a more standard republican I'm not sure Biden wins.

Basically, we are where we are because of Trump.

[JPhillips]

What if my position is the same as with Kavanaugh, there's enough here to merit a thorough and real investigation? I suppose that still makes me a hypocrite.

[Atocep]

For the record, these claims would probably be easier to take at face value of we hadn't seen GOP supporters offering large amounts of money to pin sexual harassment/assault allegations against multiple democrats over the past couple of years. I'm not saying that's what happened here, but I do think it's played a role in everyone taking it with a grain of salt for the moment.

To make matters even more complicated we have a President with upwards of 25 sexual harassment claims against him.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Politicians who aren't actually running for things are always very popular.

No one has run one national attack ad against Cuomo. No one has dug into his closet.

I'd bet he has incredibly favorable polling right now b/c people's sense of him is "governor who seems to be doing a pretty good job, I guess."

If he enters the race in a formal way, people will start to look at him, find stuff they don't like, and his numbers will come down to normal candidate numbers.

Not even sure that would matter anymore. Biden has an atrocious voting record and no one cares. I feel like people just want to vote for likable people who come across as competent. He does that.

Basically, I think the public wants anyone who won 't get on TV and tell people shoot up with Lysol at this point. A human being that won't be a national embarrassment.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

There are.. Lots of them. One of those two will win, but it isn't because there aren't other choices. It's because most people will not consider the other choices.

What are the other choices? Vermin Supreme? (currently 2nd in popular vote for the libertarian party nomination, and he's won two states).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Would it? A brokered convention just hands the White House to Trump as the factions would break out into open divisiveness a mere 3 months before the election (remember, the Convention has been postponed to August due to COVID 19). It'd look like the 1968 Democratic Convention at best.

I would have said this a few months ago but I get the feeling this whole pandemic changed the game. Our death toll will be in the six figures and economy ravaged. Party in-fighting takes a back seat when the other guy is touting bleach as the cure.

Also I think there is a much higher chance that a brokered convention would come over cognitive decline than these allegations.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

What are the other choices? Vermin Supreme? (currently 2nd in popular vote for the libertarian party nomination, and he's won two states).

Isn't there a rumor Jesse Ventura will run as the Green candidate?

[thesloppy]

Jesse Ventura says he's 'testing the waters' for Green Party bid for president | TheHill

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Molson

What are the other choices? Vermin Supreme? (currently 2nd in popular vote for the libertarian party nomination, and he's won two states).

Literally anyone who is 35 and naturalized. You. Me. Some random schmuck from the local pub. There's nothing stopping the country, except itself, from electing whatever candidate they want. But what they want … is what we have. That's not a pleasant truth, but it's still a truth.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by panerd

Which is exactly the point. Nobody cares about these incidents it's all about when these incidents occur on the "other team".

I would say the argument is the republicans opened that current can of worms when they elected Trump sand backed Kavanaugh. Not saying that is my argument, but that will be the justification and anyone on the right who goes after Biden will be a hypocrite.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by molson

What are the other choices? Vermin Supreme? (currently 2nd in popular vote for the libertarian party nomination, and he's won two states).

Vermin Love Supreme^[1] (born June 3, 1961)^[2] is an American performance artist and activist who has run as a candidate in various local, state, and national elections in the United States.^[3][4][5] Supreme is known for wearing a boot as a hat and carrying a large toothbrush,^[6] and has said that if elected President of the United States, he will pass a law requiring people to brush their teeth.^[3][7][8][9] He has campaigned on a platform of zombie apocalypse awareness and time travel research,^[10] and promised a free pony for every American.^[11]

Requiring people to brush their teeth doesn't seem very Libertarian.

SI

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would say the argument is the republicans opened that current can of worms when they elected Trump sand backed Kavanaugh. Not saying that is my argument, but that will be the justification and anyone on the right who goes after Biden will be a hypocrite.

I think the larger issue are the crickets chirping from news outlets like CNN, who ran dozens of stories 24/7 for days on Kavanaugh's alleged offenses, although they went back further in time than Biden's alleged offenses and arguably had less corroborating evidence. Yet, almost total silence when it comes to pursing these allegations against the presumptive democratic nominee for President.

[NobodyHere]

Am I allowed to say that the accusations against both Biden and Kavanaugh were pretty unconvincing?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

I think the larger issue are the crickets chirping from news outlets like CNN, who ran dozens of stories 24/7 for days on Kavanaugh's alleged offenses, although they went back further in time than Biden's alleged offenses and arguably had less corroborating evidence. Yet, almost total silence when it comes to pursing these allegations against the presumptive democratic nominee for President.

I dunno. While it doesn't give them a lot of credibility as an unbiased news outlet, if thats what they are even claiming anymore, at least they aren't running hit pieces on the accuser like Fox News did.

I admittedly haven't watched much media, but is Bidens accuser being attacked by Biden supporters, politicians, and the media the way Ford was?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Am I allowed to say that the accusations against both Biden and Kavanaugh were pretty unconvincing?

Biden's penetration with fingers and Kavanaugh's rape accusations are/were pretty unconvincing to me.

However, I can easily believe being boorish, chauvinistic, sexist, drunk kid and the like. None of those would disqualify either IMO.

But let's say 3-4-5 others come out, accuse Biden of the same thing, and there are good corroborating witnesses. If that happened, I would not vote for Biden.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Isn't there a rumor Jesse Ventura will run as the Green candidate?

It's a conspiracy theory

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Biden's penetration with fingers and Kavanaugh's rape accusations are/were pretty unconvincing to me.

However, I can easily believe being boorish, chauvinistic, sexist, drunk kid and the like. None of those would disqualify either IMO.

But let's say 3-4-5 others come out, accuse Biden of the same thing, and there are good corroborating witnesses. If that happened, I would not vote for Biden.

Believe in the theory? Sure.

But Kavanaugh's accuser had very little evidence other than "he said/she said". I need more than that to condemn someone.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

But Kavanaugh's accuser had very little evidence other than "he said/she said". I need more than that to condemn someone.

I agree. I said the serious allegations were "unconvincing" to me. I remember taking a lot of flak on this forum for my position.

I'm willing to give Biden the same benefit of doubt like I did with Kavanaugh.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Biden's penetration with fingers and Kavanaugh's rape accusations are/were pretty unconvincing to me.

However, I can easily believe being boorish, chauvinistic, sexist, drunk kid and the like. None of those would disqualify either IMO.

But let's say 3-4-5 others come out, accuse Biden of the same thing, and there are good corroborating witnesses. If that happened, I would not vote for Biden.

Why do I have a feeling there will be. Most likely during or after the convention. Vague and impossible to prove.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Believe in the theory? Sure.

But Kavanaugh's accuser had very little evidence other than "he said/she said". I need more than that to condemn someone.

That's why there needed to be an investigation. There were other women after Blasey-Ford that came out. None where vetted or investigated.



I have no problem with a better investigation into the Biden charges. From what I can tell so far, everyone that digs deeper seems to come out unconvinced.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

That's why there needed to be an investigation. There were other women after Blasey-Ford that came out. None where vetted or investigated.



I have no problem with a better investigation into the Biden charges. From what I can tell so far, everyone that digs deeper seems to come out unconvinced.

That and it seems like it there were more fire, the GOP would be trumpeting it, regardless of if it looked hypocritical. Instead they're chasing Hunter Biden in an equally hypocritical case of nepotism

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I have no problem with a better investigation into the Biden charges. From what I can tell so far, everyone that digs deeper seems to come out unconvinced.

Right, both the NY Times (who had NO problems banging the drum against Hillary Clinton, re: emails) and the Washington Post looked into it and found nothing more than improper head/shoulder touching - which is still not great, mind.

[larrymcg421]

I think people forget how the Blasey Ford stuff went down. She informed Feinstein, but told her she didn't want to go public. Feinstein actually sat on the information until a leak said she was hiding something from the committee. Even then, when Feinstein referred it to the committee, she left out Ford's name. Some investigators were able to figure out it was Ford and pressured her to come forward. If she was just out to ruin this guy's life, she certainly went about it in the weirdest way possible.

She also had a history of documented reports of this incident in therapist's notes. Those didn't mention Kavanaugh's name, but this was the incident she later came forward about. Even some Kavanaugh supporters believe she was attacked, but just by somebody else. Believe her or not, but to say there was no evidence is a distortion of the record.

[RainMaker]

lol

Big businesses and powerful Democrats are aligning around a proposal to bail out employer health plans in the wake of staggering losses to the insurance industryhttps://t.co/qZVsOF9Prl

— POLITICO (@politico) April 28, 2020

[BishopMVP]

Oh dear lord I didn't even think of this option, but yeah this is probably the most likely scenario (and quite possibly would end with the exact same result) As Biden struggles, Hillary waits for the call | TheHill

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Oh dear lord I didn't even think of this option, but yeah this is probably the most likely scenario (and quite possibly would end with the exact same result) As Biden struggles, Hillary waits for the call | TheHill

"Liz Peek is a Fox News contributor"

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Oh dear lord I didn't even think of this option, but yeah this is probably the most likely scenario (and quite possibly would end with the exact same result) As Biden struggles, Hillary waits for the call | TheHill

If the Dems are that stupid they deserve everything they get

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Oh dear lord I didn't even think of this option, but yeah this is probably the most likely scenario (and quite possibly would end with the exact same result) As Biden struggles, Hillary waits for the call | TheHill

It's a pro-Trump anti-Biden article using the Hillary angle as a fig leaf.

[JPhillips]

There is no chance Hillary is the nominee.

Stop trying to make fetch happen.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There is no chance Hillary is the nominee.

Stop trying to make fetch happen.

Oh trust me I am desperately hoping fetch does not happen in this case. But if Biden drops out (whether due to the sexual assault angle getting more serious or a health reason) you really think there is zero chance HRC is the DNC nominee?

(Thankfully at least it's an Obama side person in charge of the DNC instead of a Clintonista right now, but that does bring up the question of who is next on the Obama side? If Biden drops out & Michelle doesn't want to run is Julian Castro their go to right now?)

[JPhillips]

Yes. Absolutely. Positively. Zero chance.

There are soooo many people to choose from if Biden drops out(and he won't).

Bernie, Warren, Pete, Inslee, Klobuchar, Cuomo, Beshear, etc.

I'm not convinced she'd win in a two-person race against Bloomberg. Nobody wants to go back down that road and risk another Trump term.

[PilotMan]

Given the allegations against trump that still live on for all to read, and the acceptance of those, and acceptance of him as being from god, there's no way, no any planet, anymore, that any person, short of a tried and found guilty situation, where any nominee, or acting public servant will ever back down or resign again. Ever.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Oh dear lord I didn't even think of this option, but yeah this is probably the most likely scenario (and quite possibly would end with the exact same result) As Biden struggles, Hillary waits for the call | TheHill

Most politicians wish they would "struggle" with leading an incumbent in almost every poll released in the last month.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by bob

Is he doing a good job? A lot of people have died in NY and he and NYC major feuded about closing things down. I think his main positive is that he has bitched about Trump.

No, his "numbers" are awful and he's vulnerable to criticism that he acted too slowly in several ways.

The reason people are attracted to him is because he comes across, on this all-important issue, as genuinely caring, relatively transparent, apparently intelligent, and very articulate.

Ordinarily that would make him "pretty good at being a politician," and was why he was a whispered-about challenger to Senator Clinton for the 2016 nomination (and the primary perceived rival to the Maryland Governor leading up to that).

Under these circumstances, Cuomo benefits from being, very visibly, a near polar opposite of Trump in these exact respects, and that has to be attractive to a fair number of voters.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

No, his "numbers" are awful and he's vulnerable to criticism that he acted too slowly in several ways.

The reason people are attracted to him is because he comes across, on this all-important issue, as genuinely caring, relatively transparent, apparently intelligent, and very articulate.

Ordinarily that would make him "pretty good at being a politician," and was why he was a whispered-about challenger to Senator Clinton for the 2016 nomination (and the primary perceived rival to the Maryland Governor leading up to that).

Under these circumstances, Cuomo benefits from being, very visibly, a near polar opposite of Trump in these exact respects, and that has to be attractive to a fair number of voters.

Yeah I thought that was what Bloomberg was supposed to be this year and then in those debates he looked foolish. Have to admit outside of snip-its I have never seen the guy talk but have to assume as mayor he was a lot more articulate and charismatic than he was at the debates.

[JPhillips]

Cuomo is showing just how easy it is to be popular in a crisis. What he's been good at is sharing information and speaking with compassion about those afflicted. Objectively the numbers in NY are bad, but a lot of people will give a leader the benefit of the doubt if it appears that they understand the crisis and are moved by the suffering.

A theoretical President Pence, doing everything the same except his public announcements, would have a +60% approval rating.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A theoretical President Pence, doing everything the same except his public announcements, would have a +60% approval rating.

With some buffering for the committed-to-the-other-side... yes, I agree. Vanilla GOP President could handle this fight and look good doing so. We just don't have that guy, regrettably.