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Old 12-12-2008, 01:25 PM   #201
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I would think 1...
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Old 12-12-2008, 01:26 PM   #202
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I'm obviously not voting for me.

I don't think I'm voting for Danny, since he hasn't lynched a villager and broke an early tie with a vote on a wolf

I honestly believe CR. I've seen him in enough games to know that if he was a wolf, he surely wouldn't have chosen the one game he's around during daytime to try and skate by with 2 no votes

That leaves PF, EF and Lathum.

I think the EF vs Lathum tango is the more interesting portion of that.
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Old 12-12-2008, 01:26 PM   #203
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I would hope only one left...or hell, we're lookin' at end-game here.
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Old 12-12-2008, 01:30 PM   #204
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HL - can you update the 2nd post purty please?
Done!
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Old 12-12-2008, 01:31 PM   #205
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HL can you tell me who the wolves are purty please?
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Old 12-12-2008, 01:35 PM   #206
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sure! Mcoolins was one!
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Old 12-12-2008, 01:53 PM   #207
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I think I'm going to give EF his wish


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Old 12-12-2008, 02:23 PM   #208
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I don't get EF vote for me or his logic.

Does he feel like I am a wolf and played him? That would be a pretty big risk on my part on day 1. Especialy if I am a wolf, I would know they are both villagers ( assuming EF is one) so what do I have to gain from making that move as a wolf?

EF on the other hand could be a wolf making a desperation save my ass play by putting himself at risk making it look like he is a villager if he survives.

I just don't see why he looks at me suspiciously.

Plus EF has voted for 2 villagers and Render always has a hard on for me and I would think I would be scanned by him early and he would have dropped a hint.
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Old 12-12-2008, 03:33 PM   #209
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I don't get EF vote for me or his logic.

Does he feel like I am a wolf and played him? That would be a pretty big risk on my part on day 1. Especialy if I am a wolf, I would know they are both villagers ( assuming EF is one) so what do I have to gain from making that move as a wolf?

EF on the other hand could be a wolf making a desperation save my ass play by putting himself at risk making it look like he is a villager if he survives.

I just don't see why he looks at me suspiciously.

Plus EF has voted for 2 villagers and Render always has a hard on for me and I would think I would be scanned by him early and he would have dropped a hint.

I don't get your hard on for Danny.

Unfortunately we don't know who RendeR scanned, or if he scanned anyone. He missed the day one vote so who is to say he didn't miss the scan?


Oh, my votes so far are one for the Cop, a self defense vote and one for Lathum (an unknown) so that makes me suspicious of people who try to falsely report who I voted for to make me look bad.

I do look bad in not wanting mccollins lynched, I just had no read that he was bad and made a bad guess there. If you want to come after me for that, fine, but don't come after me for voting RendeR, I changed that vote to Lathum.

PF still has me wondering with his votes and a couple of his statements.

CR, I don't know. I doubt, but could it be a carefully orchestrated plot by the wolves having neither vote day one. Thinking that we would not assume both wolves would be in the list of non-voters?

I'll look over the voting history later, until then my vote is staying on Lathum (to keep it entertaining at least).
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Old 12-12-2008, 03:38 PM   #210
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I think I'm going to give EF his wish


Vote EagleFan

No, no no... My wish was that you vote Lathum first and then if he is bad vote me...
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Old 12-12-2008, 03:40 PM   #211
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So I'm supposed to think we were wolf-wolf yesterday?

With all that vote-switching ...really?

Doesn't seem likely to me.
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Old 12-12-2008, 03:59 PM   #212
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So I'm supposed to think we were wolf-wolf yesterday?

With all that vote-switching ...really?

Doesn't seem likely to me.

Where do you see a wolf/wolf vote?
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Old 12-12-2008, 04:02 PM   #213
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I see where this is going.

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Old 12-12-2008, 04:12 PM   #214
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The votes were mccollins 4 and RendeR 2 so it was wolf/villager and the day before was villager/villager. There is no wolf/wolf scenerio anywhere.

mccollins uncounted switch to Lathum is puzzling. It was meaningless as far as voting goes. Was it an attempt to setup Lathum or an attempt to clear him?

Thinking this through, I already said if Lathum is bad, lynch me next. mccollins either hoped there would be a strange last second shift to Lathum. If this happens we have some options:

1) Lathum is bad, now mccollins looks better in our eyes for his switch

2) Lathum is good, now both wolves still live and another good guy is dead. I also already stepped up with the whole lynch me if Lathum is bad thing which could lead to me being lynched next and it's just about game over at that point.


This doesn't make sense now that I think through it. If there are just 2 wolves (most likely the case I would say) it's much better for the brutal to be the first to go so they can take someone with them.

I can't see him thinking his vote switch would actually accomplish getting Lathum lynched.


I am starting to lean towards a different candidate but I want to see how the next couple days play out first before changing.
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Old 12-12-2008, 04:14 PM   #215
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edit, that one sentence should read "if Lathum is good", not "if Lathum is bad" in my scenario 2.
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Old 12-12-2008, 04:24 PM   #216
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vote Lathum

Still going with my theory.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
My wish was that you vote Lathum first and then if he is bad vote me...

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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post


Thinking this through, I already said if Lathum is bad, lynch me next.




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edit, that one sentence should read "if Lathum is good", not "if Lathum is bad" in my scenario 2.


OK, I've been thinking about this.

Right now we have 6 people left. If there are 2 wolves left we are at an end game scenerio because it would be 4-2 ( even though there are no posted win conditions, I am assuming it's standard).

With no BG left if we don't bag a wolf tomorrow they get a free night kill and we are done.

EF has been pushing his " kill Lathum first, and if he is good then kill me" which sounds good, but the problem is there are no do overs ( assuming there are 2 wolves left). Now only a wolf would know we are at endgame and push this. What EF is doing is a common wolf play, and since a wolf would know how many wolves are left they would know when it's the right time to make this play.

The fact EF is approaching it in this manner make me pretty confident he is a wolf.

I also think there are 2 left considering we started with a seer and a BG and possibly a duke.
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Old 12-12-2008, 05:49 PM   #217
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Here's a more legit take on Lathum's post. If it's 4-2 and you lynch me the game is over as it will be 3-2 and the night kill makes it 2-2 game over. Interesting which parts of my posts he has picked up on and that he is trying to go with the "it's 4-2 so EF wants you to lynch me so he can win".

I will give him this, he is partly right. I do (or maybe did) want you to lynch Lathum so that I can win but that is because I am a villager and lynching a wolf helps me win.

Of course, CR could be playing us all. A masterminded wolf strategy of no voting by both wolves day one since villagers were in the line of fire.

There are either one or two people left in the game that benefit from my lynching (or night kill). We need to be finding who that is.
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Old 12-12-2008, 06:15 PM   #218
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Glad we got a wolf. My vote was mostly luck, but I have to be pretty low on the list considering I broke the tie and helped get the vote towards a wolf.

My vote will probably go towards EF or Lathum for today, but there is plenty of time before the deadline, so I am not hurry to make a vote. I'm pretty suspicious of those who were.
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Old 12-12-2008, 06:20 PM   #219
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The vote was 4-1 when PF put it on Render, I don't think a wolf throws out that vote there. Two days in a row Lathum has thrown out early votes which doesn't sit too well with me. EF's late run to try and get Lathum doesn't sit great either.
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Old 12-12-2008, 08:24 PM   #220
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Also funny that Lathum did the exact same thing he said was suspicious of me to do day 1.

I wish we could lynch both Lathum and EF at this point
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Old 12-12-2008, 09:44 PM   #221
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Two days in a row Lathum has thrown out early votes which doesn't sit too well with me. EF's late run to try and get Lathum doesn't sit great either.

Danny, I'm not really sure where you are getting this from.

Day 1 I was the 8th person of 11 to vote, there was some movement later on, but I was the eigth person to cast a vote.

Day 2 I casy the first vote, and did leave it on you, but I was also very clear I would be out until after the deadline so I wasn't able to make any kind of move.
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Old 12-12-2008, 09:46 PM   #222
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Here's a more legit take on Lathum's post. If it's 4-2 and you lynch me the game is over as it will be 3-2 and the night kill makes it 2-2 game over. Interesting which parts of my posts he has picked up on and that he is trying to go with the "it's 4-2 so EF wants you to lynch me so he can win".

This post makes no sense to me. You are basicly just plaguerizing what I accused you of and saying I could be doing the same thing.
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Old 12-12-2008, 09:55 PM   #223
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Danny, I'm not really sure where you are getting this from.

Day 1 I was the 8th person of 11 to vote, there was some movement later on, but I was the eigth person to cast a vote.

Day 2 I casy the first vote, and did leave it on you, but I was also very clear I would be out until after the deadline so I wasn't able to make any kind of move.

I haven't been real thorough in my reading of posts, but these are fair points that I will take into consideration.
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Old 12-12-2008, 10:04 PM   #224
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I am out until after deadline.
I was hoping for more discussion before I left but no such luck.

This is where I said i will be gone. At that point there were only 4 votes cast.
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Old 12-12-2008, 10:08 PM   #225
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I am leaning against voting for you, oddly enough primarily for you being so outspoken against me, not sure a wolf makes that strong of a play towards someone they know is a villager.

That said, I have never seen you as a wolf, and you're supposed to be really good, so maybe you're good enough to pull that off :P
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Old 12-12-2008, 10:14 PM   #226
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This post makes no sense to me. You are basicly just plaguerizing what I accused you of and saying I could be doing the same thing.

Just wanted to put something closer to the truth in your statement. I don't like being played bya wolf like you did on day one.

I should have just taken that one for the team so Jackal would still have been around, then hoops would have still been around too.

Unfortunately now that is history and we need to find the wolf (or wolves depending on the number).
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Old 12-12-2008, 10:24 PM   #227
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Just wanted to put something closer to the truth in your statement. I don't like being played bya wolf like you did on day one.

what do I have to gain by making that play day 1 if I was a wolf?

If I am a wolf I know you and Jackal are both villagers, so why call all that attention to myself?
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:42 PM   #228
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2.Chief Rum
- no votes at all
- quite active after the roles are revealed, says he is looking forward to being able to be active early on in the game at that point
- posts at 4:00 AM on the day of the day one deadline asking for Jackal to make a case and that he would return
- posts again an hour and a half after day one deadline appologetic about missing the vote but that he would have voted Jackal anyway, calls out Lathum for his day one save of me
- no more activity until 15 minutes after the deadline and say he has been around but not into it and again casts doubt on Lathum in that post

4.Jeheinze
- day 1 2nd vote on Jackal to put him in early lead
- posts an hour before day one deadline says not changing vote, day one and sees no reason to basically
- places day 2 vote on mccolins to put it over the top and out of reach with a few minutes left before deadline (there did not seem to be any chance of the vote changing at that point anyway so not sure how much to make of this vote)
- posts a summary which incorrectly claims I voted for the cop and Psychic though I voted for Jackal (self defense) who was the cop and Lathum (unknown)
- votes me day 3
- posts something about a wolf/wolf vote which makes no sense as that scenario has not occured based on what we know about the outcome of the votes and night kills

5.Packerfantic
- votes Jackal day 1 to make it Jackal 3, others 1
- sys he doesn't think we had villager/villager on day one (meanin he thinks I am a wolf)
- votes RendeR late day 2
- makes a confusing post about losing a lynch today after the day 2 vote (does explain later that he was thinking about the brutal)
- posts again that we hadgthe wrong guy (see explanation of above as well)
- claims how bad his votes look
- ponders number of wolves remaining

6.EagleFan
- votes The Jackal day one, need to vote someone and figured I would go with the original example from the rules
- late change in day one vote to Lathum (I was in the lead in the voting at the time with my vote on Jackal, hoped that moving off him may get him to move off me and give the non-voters a choice, having my vote not in the running gives me something to play with for vote change if the vote gets close as with my vote on the #2 guy gives me no move to make to save myself if needed)
- Changes back to The Jackal after Lathum claims he would if I did.
- early day 2 vote of RendeR, one of the non-voters from day one
- analyzes Lathums day one move (over-analyzes?) and changes vote from RendeR to Lathum
- defending mccollins in a post (not looking good for me there now) figuring we wouldn't have a wolf non-vote as I had never seen that happen in a game yet (from the sample size of the games I have been in).
- pushed for a Lathum run
- posted early take on things with a bit of suspicion on PF and CR
- posted potential theories on the mccollins Lathum vote
- correcte Lathum's take on the makeup of the game, to correct his incorrect take that I am a wolf

9.Lathum
- breaks tie day one with vote on me with about an hour and a half left before deadline
- begins his hard on for Danny about Danny voting 3rd party (Danny's vote only made it 2-1-1 at the time)
- after being called out about his statement on Danny claims he is "just trying to get discussion going"
- makes deal to move vote off me if I move vote to The Jackal
- breaks tie by moving vote to The Jackal
- early day 2 vote of Danny (guess that Danny thing wasn't just for discussion after all)
- defends non-voters, again calls ot Danny saying he "avoided chaos" (Danny's day 1 vote was early enough and brought a legit 3rd party to the mix instead of a late throw away)
- makes a post defending his Danny vote (missed this earlier but he claims "IF I was the seer I would have scanned you D1 so maybe we will find something out", could be a setup for a fake reveal?)
- claims RendeR probably scanned him (to setup an "I'm a villager" defense?)
- votes me, proposes a 4-2 scenario where I am a wolf and he is the good guy (I guess he couldn't get anyne to bite on his Danny theory?)
- claims my post which basically turns his logic around to show what if Lathum is the wolf does not make sense to him
- claims the usual "why would I do that as a wolf?" defense (how many times has a wolf done something andthen defended it with this line?)

11.Danny
- early day 1 vote on Lathum (makes it 2-1-1 and brings 3rd party into the mix, not a bad thing)
- morning of day 1 says he is out until after deadline and sees no reason to move vote at that time
- puts early day 2 vote on mccollins (this looks good to me with RendeR listed as his other choice of the non-voters)
- wants me and Lathum lynched
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:45 PM   #229
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Don't see anything in RendeR's day 2 voting or posts to give any kind of clue to a day 1 scan.
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:48 PM   #230
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One more thing to add. Why would a wolf not vote day one if a wolf were one of the candidates for a lynch?
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:48 PM   #231
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Good breakdown, my comment about lynching you both was a bit facetious, but I do think it is likely there is a wolf among you two.
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:49 PM   #232
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One more thing to add. Why would a wolf not vote day one if a wolf were one of the candidates for a lynch?

This is something I thought about as well.
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:52 PM   #233
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Good breakdown, my comment about lynching you both was a bit facetious, but I do think it is likely there is a wolf among you two.

I don't have a bad read on you at this point, but then again I also didn't have a bad read on mccollins so my "wolfdar" seems to be off a bit.

Didn't I see that potentially one of the other wolves has a win condition of being the last wolf in a 1:1 scenario? Could that mean that one of the mccollins votes is a wolf not only attempting to look good but to get closer to their own win condition?
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:54 PM   #234
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The two people who I trust the most are Chief Rum and PackerFanatic. I just don't see Chief's inactivity if he is a wolf. I was fortunate enough to play a game with him as a wolf and he was enthusiastic enough where I just don't see this, especially with a wolf under pressure on day two.

So far the wolves have done a fabulous job choosing which villagers to kill, no offense to PF, but I see a more experienced wolf making these kills.
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:56 PM   #235
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I don't have a bad read on you at this point, but then again I also didn't have a bad read on mccollins so my "wolfdar" seems to be off a bit.

Didn't I see that potentially one of the other wolves has a win condition of being the last wolf in a 1:1 scenario? Could that mean that one of the mccollins votes is a wolf not only attempting to look good but to get closer to their own win condition?

I don't remember reading that. Based on my village pm and lack of anything along those lines, I don't see any extra win conditions being in the game. But, if you could find it that would be helpful
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Old 12-13-2008, 12:00 AM   #236
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BTW, at this point I am considering voting Jeheinz if I don't feel confident I can sort out this mess with you two. He has been UTR and his logic has been pretty off and I really don't like his early second vote on you.
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Old 12-13-2008, 12:13 AM   #237
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I don't remember reading that. Based on my village pm and lack of anything along those lines, I don't see any extra win conditions being in the game. But, if you could find it that would be helpful

Maybe I am misinterpretting this:

"Psycho- You want to kill everyone. You win when there is a 1-1 correlation."


In the Charmed game I gave the wolves an extra win condition of eliminating the other wolf. Maybe I am reading the Psych role with that in mind but I read kill everyone as just that kill everyone.
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Old 12-13-2008, 12:15 AM   #238
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I read that as just a regular old wolf and didn't give it any second thought, but I see where you could get that idea from. Perhaps we could get clarification on that from Clap, but I don't see the extra role being there personally.
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Old 12-13-2008, 11:46 AM   #239
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EF, that;s a nice breakdown but what does it really prove?

That anyone could still be a wolf? It almost seems like you want to find a reason for anyone to be voted off that isn't a wolf so you can win.

You still never answered my question from earlier. If I am a wolf and we are villigar-villager day 1 what is my motivation for making that play?
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Old 12-13-2008, 12:09 PM   #240
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EF, that;s a nice breakdown but what does it really prove?

That anyone could still be a wolf? It almost seems like you want to find a reason for anyone to be voted off that isn't a wolf so you can win.

You still never answered my question from earlier. If I am a wolf and we are villigar-villager day 1 what is my motivation for making that play?

If you believed when I said that I have no role, why not take a chance to see if the other one has a role. Bargaining with me gives you an easy out for your vote change.

What has the breakdown proven? It's not there to really prove anything, just to show a summary of events. Take from it what you will.

At this point we have you trying to deflect suspicion first to Danny, now to me. We also have jeheinz jumping on your attack of me and falsifying events in his posts to try to make me stand out (the wolf/wolf post which makes no sense as it has been proven to have not happened and his claim that my votes were Jackal and RendeR when they were Jackal and Lathum) and PF who had a run of posts which just confused the hell out of me the other day .

PF seems too obvious with his votes though. I wouldn't think a wolf would want to stand out quite like that. I can never get a good read on him though (I think I have thought he was a wolf in every game he played in-- even the game I ran where he was the seer ).

I honestly don't trust CR's play though. It is too different from anything I have seen from him. I don't remember seeing a wolf non-vote day one before andw happen to have one this game, along with 2 other non-votes. Why not try a strategy of multiple wolf no-votes on day one as we would assume that there could not possible be another wolf in the list once we found one. The idea would be to stand back and watch us turn on each other.

I really suck at being a villager. Basically I have no CoT and think everyone else is a wolf.

Well, not quite. I actually think Danny is on the level. His early mccollins vote wouldn't seem like a wolf vote to me when there was another option in RendeR out there which was already on the table an no-one really would have thought twice about a vote on him at that point due to the non-vote day one. I also don't see his day one vote as suspicious (even though Lathum wants us to believe it is) as it brought a third party into the mix when there was no clear runaway vote.
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Old 12-13-2008, 12:48 PM   #241
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If you believed when I said that I have no role, why not take a chance to see if the other one has a role. Bargaining with me gives you an easy out for your vote change.

What has the breakdown proven? It's not there to really prove anything, just to show a summary of events. Take from it what you will.

.

that early in the game that is a crazy huge risk to take.

As for your breakdown it just seems from the school of AlanT where you do tons of analysis seemingly helping the village when really you are trying to undermine us.

If I had to guess I would say EF and either CR/PF are the last 2 wolves ( if there are 2 left) based on EF's suspiscoun of them.
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Old 12-13-2008, 02:28 PM   #242
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that early in the game that is a crazy huge risk to take.

As for your breakdown it just seems from the school of AlanT where you do tons of analysis seemingly helping the village when really you are trying to undermine us.

If I had to guess I would say EF and either CR/PF are the last 2 wolves ( if there are 2 left) based on EF's suspiscoun of them.

Feel free to do your own analysis but wolves don't need to analyze so I suspect there is no need for you to.
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Old 12-13-2008, 02:39 PM   #243
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Feel free to do your own analysis but wolves don't need to analyze so I suspect there is no need for you to.

I completly disagree.

IMO as a wolf you need to pay more attention so you can try and set people up, lead people down the wrong path, etc...
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Old 12-13-2008, 02:49 PM   #244
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I guess that's your spin on things.

I like how you tried to set yourself up for a fake reveal if needed for your Danny vote. That is exactly why it's something a villager needs to do, to be able to find these things.
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Old 12-13-2008, 03:44 PM   #245
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I give my opinion who I think the seer should scan and you interpret that as setting up a fake reveal?
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Old 12-13-2008, 03:58 PM   #246
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it's easy to cast a day 1 vote like yours then hide behind it, something a wolf would do for sure.

IF I was the seer I would have scanned you D1 so maybe we will find something out

Typical setup post for a fake reveal. A lot of posturing and leave a lot of deniablity later when it gets called out. Especially when Danny's vote was nothing to get called out for.
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Old 12-13-2008, 04:02 PM   #247
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Typical setup post for a fake reveal. A lot of posturing and leave a lot of deniablity later when it gets called out. Especially when Danny's vote was nothing to get called out for.

Interpret it however you like.

You say I am a wolf because I say I would scan Danny

I say you are a wolf because you are pushing the " Lynch lathum first and if I am wrong lynch me" angel, which if we are at endgame would be a great move for you.
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Old 12-13-2008, 04:07 PM   #248
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Vote Lathum

Subject to change, but I want to see this tied and where the other votes go.
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Old 12-13-2008, 04:11 PM   #249
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fair enough Danny, but I'll warn you that if there is another wolf out there to cast their vote it will be on me pretty much ending the game unless the sixth voter is willing to tie things up.
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Old 12-14-2008, 07:55 AM   #250
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I read that as just a regular old wolf and didn't give it any second thought, but I see where you could get that idea from. Perhaps we could get clarification on that from Clap, but I don't see the extra role being there personally.


no special win conditions... just 1:1 ratio!
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