2014 MLB Thread

[PilotMan]

Trout in 6yr /$144M

Los Angeles Angels, Mike Trout agree to six-year extension - ESPN Los Angeles

[Scoobz0202]

if all goes to plan for him can't wait to see his contract when he is 29. will be crazy

[EagleFan]

Hometown boy gettin' paid!!!

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

if all goes to plan for him can't wait to see his contract when he is 29. will be crazy

If he keeps playing at this level for another 6 years, yeah it's going to be a $500M deal by then.

[Warhammer]

At least he's wearing a Halo in his prime.

[ISiddiqui]

Jeez Louise, I mean I know that Trout is going to be better in his late 20s (barring injuries *knock on wood*), but I can't even imagine what that is going to look like!

[Crapshoot]

That deal was damn generous on Trout's behalf. He essentially sold his FA years at 3/95. Trout is just so damn good that our traditional value capture metrics we don't even capture that he's a non-linear improvement over everyone else. I thought this chart did it best - a REGRESSED Trout (ie, to have the single worst season of his career) makes Andrew McCutchen look like chump change relatively.

2014 Positional Power Rankings: Center Field | FanGraphs Baseball

[stevew]

I was hoping it went to Arbitration just to break the model.

I understand getting paid now but he's worth like 50m/year at least. Next contract should easily exceed 500M since a WAR will be worth 8-10m in 6 years.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by stevew

I understand getting paid now but he's worth like 50m/year at least.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Jeez Louise, I mean I know that Trout is going to be better in his late 20s (barring injuries *knock on wood*), but I can't even imagine what that is going to look like!

Yeah... but unfortunately there is likely to be injuries or some regression. I don't think he's going to follow the Cesar Cedeno Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com career path, but I doubt anyone at the time thought Cedeno would fall off either. It's silly to compare Trout's career to anyone's, but as a young, athletic, power-hitting CF Grady Sizemore, Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. come to mind, and injuries caught up to all of them hard and fast, although it really wasn't until the age of 30 for the latter 2.

I'd love to be proven wrong and to watch Trout turn into Barry Bonds 2.0 with the bat while maintaining his speed and defensive ability, but it's more likely that even barring injury he's reached his peak level (which is not bad at 8-10 WAR per year!)

[Subby]

Great deal for the Angels and put it next to the huge steamer of a deal Detroit just crafted and it looks even better.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Yeah... but unfortunately there is likely to be injuries or some regression. I don't think he's going to follow the Cesar Cedeno Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com career path, but I doubt anyone at the time thought Cedeno would fall off either. It's silly to compare Trout's career to anyone's, but as a young, athletic, power-hitting CF Grady Sizemore, Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. come to mind, and injuries caught up to all of them hard and fast, although it really wasn't until the age of 30 for the latter 2.

I'd love to be proven wrong and to watch Trout turn into Barry Bonds 2.0 with the bat while maintaining his speed and defensive ability, but it's more likely that even barring injury he's reached his peak level (which is not bad at 8-10 WAR per year!)

This is a good point, although I thought Law did a nice job addressing the concern in his contract analysis:

The best news for the Angels is that every position player who started his career with a bang like Trout has at least managed to maintain strong production levels through his 20s. Mickey Mantle produced 60.9 WAR during his age 22-28 seasons; Alex Rodriguez produced 56.7 WAR; Albert Pujols produced 57.4 WAR; Rickey Henderson, who put up 8.8 WAR at age 21, produced another 47.1 WAR over the next seven seasons despite losing 50 games to the 1981 strike. Even Andruw Jones, who was very valuable at age 21 but was finished as a regular at age 30, generated more than 41 WAR during his age 22-28 seasons.

There is always risk of a catastrophic injury in a long-term deal for any player, but the production risk -- the chance that Trout just won't hit or run or field enough to be worth this money -- is very low based on his skill set and the best historical comparisons available.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Open market pricing per WAR is roughly at 6.5million, increasing by about 5% per year. If anything, the amount of money flowing in seems to be increasing even more than that. So conservatively in 6 years a WAR will be worth about 8.4 million or so. He's produced an average of 9.8 his last two seasons, he's worth actually more than 50million.

As far as Miggy goes, PECOTA says he's probably been overpaid by like 15-20million. Of course there's some serious bloodbath potential there.

[stevew]

dola-there were 4 years where they played 2 All Star Games? Never knew that. They should bring that back.(looks to be 59-62)

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Subby

This is a good point, although I thought Law did a nice job addressing the concern in his contract analysis:

Oh, no question it's a very good deal for both sides. Even if Trout regresses to "only" a 5-win player per year, that'll still be worth $30 million/year, and he protected himself (and the next 5 generations of his family) against a catastrophic injury.

[sterlingice]

That's a lot of facial hair in the Opening Day* game: Thayer and then Wilson

SI

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by stevew

Open market pricing per WAR is roughly at 6.5million, increasing by about 5% per year. If anything, the amount of money flowing in seems to be increasing even more than that. So conservatively in 6 years a WAR will be worth about 8.4 million or so. He's produced an average of 9.8 his last two seasons, he's worth actually more than 50million.

As far as Miggy goes, PECOTA says he's probably been overpaid by like 15-20million. Of course there's some serious bloodbath potential there.

Looking at 2 seasons to compute you want to pay a guy that much over that timeframe is fraught with danger though.

[sterlingice]

And we're tied! It's good to have baseball back

SI

[stevew]

Didn't realize that Tommy Hanson was now basically garbage as well, in regards to ATL arms. I have to wonder if something is going on there, so many injuries involved with Braves/former Braves Pitchers.

[BishopMVP]

The Instant Replay room http://www.mlb.com/news/article//maj...4&ymd=20140326

[MizzouRah]

Cards vs Reds.. does it get any better?

[cartman]

April is not shaping up to be a good month for the Rangers. Another injury as Yu Darvish was put on the 15 day DL.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Cards vs Reds.. does it get any better?

Yup

[lungs]

I'll put my Brewers at 79 wins this year. Any amount of injuries will sink them. Yuniesky Betancourt not starting at first base will be an improvement but Lyle Overbay sucks too. The farm system sucks.

I do think the rotation is solid and Wily Peralta is poised to break out.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Yup

+1

[stevew]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Cards vs Reds.. does it get any better?

what are two teams that have never been in my kitchen

[JPhillips]

The Reds pitching should get them to .500, but the offense is going to be a problem. They probably need three of Hamilton, Ludwick, Frazier, Cozart and Mesoraco, to significantly outperform projections if they are going to get to the playoffs.

I'm guessing 83-86 wins and just missing the last wild card.

[Butter]

I think Hamilton and Mes will take a step this year... Hamilton will start out gangbusters, then fade after June. I'm guessing 88 wins.

[claphamsa]

NATS will win 162

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I think Hamilton and Mes will take a step this year... Hamilton will start out gangbusters, then fade after June. I'm guessing 88 wins.

Even if Hamilton doesn't break out he's going to do some silly things on the base paths. He may end up with more highlights than hits.

[Subby]

Anyone here doing MLB.tv? I am trying to decide if premium is a better value than the standard.

[Scoobz0202]

I know some people split the premium up 5 ways since you can have five continuous connections. With 5 people its about 26-27 dollars for the year a person. Just need one person to pay for it and share the login info with the others after he received money via paypal or whatever.

[Peregrine]

All I can say is.....OPENING DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by Subby

Anyone here doing MLB.tv? I am trying to decide if premium is a better value than the standard.

I really like Premium just for having the options of home and away feeds. It kind of sucks to have to listen to your team through the words of away team announcers.

[TroyF]

Game last night was pretty fun.

The stadium was probably 50% Dodger fans. About 15% of them were beyond obnoxious. I do not want to trash an entire fan base, but that was a much higher percentage of dirtbag opposition fans than I have ever seen before at any other sporting event. That includes Raider fans at multiple Broncos games over the years for what it is worth.

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball IMHO, but I would be very concerned about their defense if I were a fan. It was horrible last night. Beyond the 2 actual errors there were 3 or 4 more defensive miscues that could have been more painful if Ryu didn't throw so well.

[JetsIn06]

MY BODY IS READY

[claphamsa]

thank god im teleworking today.... got the game up on the big screen, and hope for a nice quiet afternoon.

[JetsIn06]

Originally Posted by Subby

Anyone here doing MLB.tv? I am trying to decide if premium is a better value than the standard.

I do it, and I love it. If you watch a lot of baseball you'll feel like you're getting the greatest bargain ever. Premium is great too, for me I love watching my team's away broadcast when they're away. Plus, I think you can only watch on your phone, tablet, xbox etc with Premium.

[molson]

7 pages in the season thread before real opening day....I feel like that crazy winter the rest of the country got has something to do with everyone being all fired up.

[Peregrine]

Think you're right molson - this winter just won't give up. Here its not really cold, it's just constantly in the 40s-50s.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

I do it, and I love it. If you watch a lot of baseball you'll feel like you're getting the greatest bargain ever. Premium is great too, for me I love watching my team's away broadcast when they're away. Plus, I think you can only watch on your phone, tablet, xbox etc with Premium.

yeah, I do the premium and love it. I stream through Apple.tv but like that I can also throw the game on my Ipad and watch while wife and I watch other shows. Well worth the upgrade.

[claphamsa]

you know how much it sucks to have the Os own your TV rights? no sound for opening day.

[Peregrine]

As for MLB.tv premium, I watch it on Apple TV a lot but prefer the PC browser version - the cool feature where you can skip to parts of innings or specific batters is great for watching past games, which I do a lot - saves time with no "ad breaks" or can skip relief pitcher warmup.

[Lathum]

Andrew Brown!!

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Andrew Brown!!

Just like they drew it up.

[Neuqua]

I never bothered with mlb.tv because there was no way I was going to pay that much (my friends don't care much for baseball.) But if someone on the board was thinking of getting it, I'd be open to throwing in for a share.

[claphamsa]

Im happy I can cheer for the local team and not have to worry about this stuff!


Harpers first time on the basebaths this season, and he gets kicked in the side of the head trying to break up a double play.

[TroyF]

When I was down with the broken hip last year, the MLB.TV package was a godsend. I'll get it again this year so I can follow the Rockies.

[stevew]

Not sure how you can expect to make the playoffs with Travis Ishikawa and Travis Snider in the lineup. Sorry poster Travis, but I'd love it if my team had 0 guys named Travis on it by the end of April.

[cartman]

Since Yu Darvish was put on the DL a couple of days ago, Tanner Scheppers gets the Opening Day start for the Rangers. Evidently he is only the 8th pitcher in the last 100 years to get his first career start on Opening Day.