Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS) - Page 11

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls

has Schmitdy been on today?

I'd like to know if he's gotten anyting on the convict.

Schmidty said he would be out from 12-5 EST and he didn't pop n before hand to give us any info on Pass.

I think we just need to proceed and if Schmidty comes in and gives us something on Pass we can reasses then.

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 01:36 PM

Well, that's not really enough to shift me off of SnDvls. I mean none of us have any info, or those that do certainly aren't going to reveal. But we're all talking.

saldana · 06-09-2009, 01:49 PM

whehter or not schmidty comes in is irrelevant...there is no reason to waste our vote to lynch pass if the 20% hit came up wolf because schmidty can just execute him tonight.

any vote for pass at this point is a totally wasted vote.

i agree with lathum about never knowing the rules when i am a wolf...i never have to, because i know what i have to do, and i catch up the rules later on when i have to find a place to hide.

i also see a problem with continuing to jail people...every day will be day one until we either get a seer reveal or a 20% hit.

vote lynch clap

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

any vote for pass at this point is a totally wasted vote.

I would like to stress that this is the truth. The village has no control over a player that is in jail. Votes for any player that is jailed will not be counted.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 01:59 PM

Sal brings up a good point.

So...

what does everyone think about a lynch today?

The Jackal · 06-09-2009, 02:03 PM

A question about the jail scan, and sorry if this has been covered - if there is more than one prisoner in the jail does the King get a 20% chance on every prisoner or just one? Might have some influence on a jail v lynch scenario.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 02:04 PM

I think there advantages and disadvantages of putting people in jail. were it up to me, I would just go on lynching, and ignore that aspect all together. its just an extra complication that gives us little to no information.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

A question about the jail scan, and sorry if this has been covered - if there is more than one prisoner in the jail does the King get a 20% chance on every prisoner or just one? Might have some influence on a jail v lynch scenario.

I believe dubb said that he gets 20% on all vilagers, but only one villager a day goes in, and they get a night kill every night, so by the time we have any amount of people in there to start pottentially taking advantage of the info, multiple people will be dead.

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

A question about the jail scan, and sorry if this has been covered - if there is more than one prisoner in the jail does the King get a 20% chance on every prisoner or just one? Might have some influence on a jail v lynch scenario.

Every player in jail has a 20% chance of breaking down and revealing their aura to the king. There is no limit to how many auras the king is able to learn in a single night. It is entirely possible that if 5 people are in jail the king could hit that 20% chance on all 5 in the same night and learn all 5 auras.

RendeR · 06-09-2009, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I think there advantages and disadvantages of putting people in jail. were it up to me, I would just go on lynching, and ignore that aspect all together. its just an extra complication that gives us little to no information.

This is the precise argument the wolves/dark ones will make because it directly benefits the bad guys. We're guaranteed to lynch more good guys than bad.

The Jail requires patience but it will actually be far more beneficial to the village to jail people and have a chance at KNOWING what they are as opposed to lynching people and cutting into our advantage as a village.

I say we keep jailing.

RendeR · 06-09-2009, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I believe dubb said that he gets 20% on all vilagers, but only one villager a day goes in, and they get a night kill every night, so by the time we have any amount of people in there to start pottentially taking advantage of the info, multiple people will be dead.

SO you'd rather lynch a villager or three along WITH the night kills?

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 02:13 PM

how is it to our advantage, there is a chance that the king never scans anyone succesfully.... there is a chance we jail the seer, where im prety sure they cannot scan.

I may be wrong, but I think we should just play this as a regular WW game

vote RendeR

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

SO you'd rather lynch a villager or three along WITH the night kills?

yeah but then we KNOW, when we jail, we get no idea if they are villagers or wolves. and we get no ability to analyze votes. its day oen over and over and over, with just one less villager each time.

path12 · 06-09-2009, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

This is the precise argument the wolves/dark ones will make because it directly benefits the bad guys. We're guaranteed to lynch more good guys than bad.

The Jail requires patience but it will actually be far more beneficial to the village to jail people and have a chance at KNOWING what they are as opposed to lynching people and cutting into our advantage as a village.

I say we keep jailing.

Well, you can't be TOO patient. The wolves are getting their night actions after all and attrition doesn't help us.

Ya gotta break some eggs. My problem with the jail BK proposition is that what then -- we just wait around for a 20% to hit with a king we're not certain of anyway? I don't see the benefit in that. I'm leaning toward lynch, but since I won't be around at deadline I'm holding off on the vote for now to see what if anything we've learned today (which doesn't seem like a whole lot).

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 02:19 PM

Ok, im cracking up becasue of work. im not sure if ill be back today, do whatever you want.

RendeR · 06-09-2009, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

yeah but then we KNOW, when we jail, we get no idea if they are villagers or wolves. and we get no ability to analyze votes. its day oen over and over and over, with just one less villager each time.

Hrm, lets see, we jail people and we get no idea, yet the King MAY in fact on any given night discover any or all of the jailed people's auras.

Wrong on point one.

Analysing votes gives us nothing until days 5+ in any large game of werewolf unless we mystically get lucky and hit something really early. Which doesn't happen often.

Wrong on point two.

If we jail you're right its one less villager per day, your way it could be 2 less villager PERMANENTLY every day.

Wolf move on Point three.

Three strikes and you're out dude. You're argument has holes everywhere.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Well, you can't be TOO patient. The wolves are getting their night actions after all and attrition doesn't help us.

Ya gotta break some eggs. My problem with the jail BK proposition is that what then -- we just wait around for a 20% to hit with a king we're not certain of anyway? I don't see the benefit in that. I'm leaning toward lynch, but since I won't be around at deadline I'm holding off on the vote for now to see what if anything we've learned today (which doesn't seem like a whole lot).

no, we don't wait around, but we can at least give it a night or two to try since the only other option for us getting a 100% cleared King is either the current King clears them or the seer comes out.

I'm not prepared for the seer to come out just to clear BK

RendeR · 06-09-2009, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Well, you can't be TOO patient. The wolves are getting their night actions after all and attrition doesn't help us.

Ya gotta break some eggs. My problem with the jail BK proposition is that what then -- we just wait around for a 20% to hit with a king we're not certain of anyway? I don't see the benefit in that. I'm leaning toward lynch, but since I won't be around at deadline I'm holding off on the vote for now to see what if anything we've learned today (which doesn't seem like a whole lot).

Its only day TWO for christs sake. What the hell is the rush? Give it a couple days. At worst we're simply hold people for a few days and get nothing and let schmidty release/kill them at his leisure.

Why MUST we jump off the bridge on day 2 and abandon a game mechanic that benefits us? Thats all I'm saying.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

whehter or not schmidty comes in is irrelevant...there is no reason to waste our vote to lynch pass if the 20% hit came up wolf because schmidty can just execute him tonight.

any vote for pass at this point is a totally wasted vote.

a point about this.

If Schmidty gets a good scan on PAss we can elect Pass King and know we have a villager in that spot.

Mostly I am curious how the scan works. What I mean is 80% of the time does the king get no info and the other 20% they are told good or bad?

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how is it to our advantage, there is a chance that the king never scans anyone succesfully.... there is a chance we jail the seer, where im prety sure they cannot scan.

I may be wrong, but I think we should just play this as a regular WW game

vote RendeR

So in the regular WW game you would have killed the seer instead of jailing them. This argument actually argues against what you're proposing, and I'm not sure if you're just oblivious to that or pushing some agenda.

There are reasons to lynch, basically for the voting record, I agree. But not accidentially killing the seer is not one.

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mostly I am curious how the scan works. What I mean is 80% of the time does the king get no info and the other 20% they are told good or bad?

I think this is right, most days he will just find out nothing (the person won't break down and reveal, as Dubb described).

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think this is right, most days he will just find out nothing (the person won't break down and reveal, as Dubb described).

I would agree but would like to know for sure.

MartinD · 06-09-2009, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

So, here's the bottom of the posts list:

MartinD 5
USFLTecmo 5
SnDvls 4
lerriuqs 4

I will probably vote for one of these to go to jail and send us some nice newspaper articles.

Why does it not come as a shock that my name appears on this list?

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 02:31 PM

To my mind this has been an unusually quiet game so far. I'm sure everyone will have their reasons but I wonder if we don't have wolves among some of the more typically vocal members.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

To my mind this has been an unusually quiet game so far. I'm sure everyone will have their reasons but I wonder if we don't have wolves among some of the more typically vocal members.

I see 2 reasons for this.

1. Hoops is dead

2. No lynch to analyze today.

RendeR · 06-09-2009, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would agree but would like to know for sure.

I think you're probably over thinking this one Lathum. Every day he gets a 20% shot at teh prisoner confessing his aura. IF there are 10 prisoners he could break them all on any given night or break none, but all he will learn is light or dark, I don't think he can get more than that based on the desacription of his rules.

MartinD · 06-09-2009, 02:41 PM

Putting down a placeholder vote for now - will be back on a bit later on.

VOTE BARKEEP49 JAIL

While his rapid-fire nomination of Schmidty for king yesterday isn't a move that makes me automatically think 'this guy must be a wolf', it does raise my suspicions a little bit. As there really isn't very much else to go on at this point, this seems as good a reason as any to go in this direction with a placeholder vote - it is subject to change, though, if a good reason to change comes up over the next couple of hours.

USFLTecmo · 06-09-2009, 02:41 PM

Vote Jail Clap

I'm as suspicious as RendeR about clap's intentions with his strategy.

Telle · 06-09-2009, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how is it to our advantage, there is a chance that the king never scans anyone succesfully.... there is a chance we jail the seer, where im prety sure they cannot scan.

I may be wrong, but I think we should just play this as a regular WW game

vote RendeR

Is this a lynch or a jail vote? Based on your discussion I'm assuming lynch.. but I think you have to state it explicitly.

Chief Rum · 06-09-2009, 03:35 PM

For the not, math inclined. If we jail someone every day, and those players remain in said jail, here are the chances by that day that we will have at least one aura scan:

After Night One (1 prisoner)== 20% chance to learn aura, 80% nothing
After Night Two (2 prisoners)==48.8% chance to learn aura, 51.2% nothing
After Night Three (3 prisoners)==73.8% chance to learn aura, 26.2% nothing
After Night Four (4 prisoners)==89.3% chance to learn aura, 10.7% nothing

SnDvls · 06-09-2009, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how is it to our advantage, there is a chance that the king never scans anyone succesfully.... there is a chance we jail the seer, where im prety sure they cannot scan.

I may be wrong, but I think we should just play this as a regular WW game

vote RendeR

you didn't indicate what for? lynch or jail?

SnDvls · 06-09-2009, 03:43 PM

vote jail Barkeep

no reason to change my vote from day #1 as no new info has been presented.

path12 · 06-09-2009, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

Analysing votes gives us nothing until days 5+ in any large game of werewolf unless we mystically get lucky and hit something really early. Which doesn't happen often.

I call BS on this, RendeR. Voting records are almost always valuable.

path12 · 06-09-2009, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mostly I am curious how the scan works. What I mean is 80% of the time does the king get no info and the other 20% they are told good or bad?

I read it as 80% no read and 20% success. But I'd welcome clarification.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I call BS on this, RendeR. Voting records are almost always valuable.

About two games ago the only people that had good vote records were the wolves - it can be overrated if not fully analyzed because of how context sensitive it all is.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 03:53 PM

Personally, I'm in no rush jailing BK. Schmidty is going to get lynched tomorrow or Thursday, and if he's good then BK is just a random. If he's bad, then we can jail him them. There's zero rush to this, he's not going anywhere, and the kind of play he did yesterday just doesn't seem like the sort of thing a pair of wolves would do ten minutes into the game - especially after last game.

This is, in essence, day 1 version 2, and I think the punish-the-UTRs plan has merit, seeing as we're not killing them and they still get plenty of chance to share what they think. We're not losing much discussion value with this plan. Why would we take another talkative player out of the game with hoops already dead?

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I read it as 80% no read and 20% success. But I'd welcome clarification.

The king knows how this mechanic works.

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 04:04 PM

Day 2 Vote Count:

BK Jail - 3 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532)
SnDvls Jail - 1 - Autumn (494)
Clap Lynch - 1 - Saldana (503)
Clap Jail - 1 - USFL (528)

Yet to Vote: Barkeep, CR, DT, Danny, KWhit, Lerriuqs, Path, Render, Schmidty, Telle, Jackal, Tyrith
Invalid Vote: Clap

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 04:13 PM

I can't really justify doing anything to clap here - is this really any different from normal for him? If we lynched him every time he did something like this he'd never make it past day 2.

Among the UTRs I'm unsure at this point - USFL, maybe?

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 04:18 PM

Good thing this game has a late deadline, still most votes out there still and a lot of people I haven't seen at all today.

MartinD · 06-09-2009, 04:30 PM

I'm a little surprised that there hasn't been a bit more activity today - am sure that this will have changed by the time I catch up with the thread in the morning...

I don't have any reason to change the vote that I posted earlier, so that's where my vote is going to stay for Day 2.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 04:34 PM

Time for the newbie to start talking. And I'm bored.

VOTE JAIL USFLTEMCO

path12 · 06-09-2009, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

About two games ago the only people that had good vote records were the wolves - it can be overrated if not fully analyzed because of how context sensitive it all is.

Wasn't around for that one, but isn't that a case of the exception that proves the rule?

Also, the more votes you get records of the more valuable it is. It's easier to get some sort of meaningful read out of 5-6 voting records than it is two or three......IMO anyway.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Wasn't around for that one, but isn't that a case of the exception that proves the rule?

Also, the more votes you get records of the more valuable it is. It's easier to get some sort of meaningful read out of 5-6 voting records than it is two or three......IMO anyway.

True. The question is how we are going to make these votes meaningful - at some point soon we need to figure out what we're going to do besides wait for RNG to bail us out.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 04:56 PM

I appreciate you guys not having too many posts to catch up on.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 04:57 PM

Now it's time for you to generate some more :P

lerriuqs · 06-09-2009, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

True. The question is how we are going to make these votes meaningful - at some point soon we need to figure out what we're going to do besides wait for RNG to bail us out.

At this point, the only issue with jailing I see is jailing the seer - otherwise, you get more days to give the seer a chance to find and you can always bring back the guys in jail.

I agree with the jailing concept - though I do have concerns with the way clap is arguing today...

That said:

VOTE JAIL BARKEEP

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 05:06 PM

The BK semi-bandwagon just makes me unhappy and suspicious.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 05:07 PM

Back home from work, and catching up.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't think we assume that at all.

We need to hear from Schmidty on whether or not the 20% hit.

Responding as I go:

I didn't receive a PM last night. I PMed dubb to see if that means I didn't see an aura, or he just forgot to send me the info.

06-09-2009, 02:04 PM	#507
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	I think there advantages and disadvantages of putting people in jail. were it up to me, I would just go on lynching, and ignore that aspect all together. its just an extra complication that gives us little to no information. __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 02:13 PM	#512
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	how is it to our advantage, there is a chance that the king never scans anyone succesfully.... there is a chance we jail the seer, where im prety sure they cannot scan. I may be wrong, but I think we should just play this as a regular WW game vote RendeR __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 02:19 PM	#515
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	Ok, im cracking up becasue of work. im not sure if ill be back today, do whatever you want. __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 03:35 PM	#530
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	For the not, math inclined. If we jail someone every day, and those players remain in said jail, here are the chances by that day that we will have at least one aura scan: After Night One (1 prisoner)== 20% chance to learn aura, 80% nothing After Night Two (2 prisoners)==48.8% chance to learn aura, 51.2% nothing After Night Three (3 prisoners)==73.8% chance to learn aura, 26.2% nothing After Night Four (4 prisoners)==89.3% chance to learn aura, 10.7% nothing __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

06-09-2009, 05:07 PM	#549
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Back home from work, and catching up. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-09-2009, 01:36 PM	#502
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Well, that's not really enough to shift me off of SnDvls. I mean none of us have any info, or those that do certainly aren't going to reveal. But we're all talking.

06-09-2009, 01:49 PM	#503
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	whehter or not schmidty comes in is irrelevant...there is no reason to waste our vote to lynch pass if the 20% hit came up wolf because schmidty can just execute him tonight. any vote for pass at this point is a totally wasted vote. i agree with lathum about never knowing the rules when i am a wolf...i never have to, because i know what i have to do, and i catch up the rules later on when i have to find a place to hide. i also see a problem with continuing to jail people...every day will be day one until we either get a seer reveal or a 20% hit. vote lynch clap

06-09-2009, 01:59 PM	#505
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Sal brings up a good point. So... what does everyone think about a lynch today?

06-09-2009, 02:03 PM	#506
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	A question about the jail scan, and sorry if this has been covered - if there is more than one prisoner in the jail does the King get a 20% chance on every prisoner or just one? Might have some influence on a jail v lynch scenario.

06-09-2009, 02:31 PM	#524
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	To my mind this has been an unusually quiet game so far. I'm sure everyone will have their reasons but I wonder if we don't have wolves among some of the more typically vocal members.

06-09-2009, 02:41 PM	#527
MartinD High School Varsity Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: East Lothian, Scotland	Putting down a placeholder vote for now - will be back on a bit later on. VOTE BARKEEP49 JAIL While his rapid-fire nomination of Schmidty for king yesterday isn't a move that makes me automatically think 'this guy must be a wolf', it does raise my suspicions a little bit. As there really isn't very much else to go on at this point, this seems as good a reason as any to go in this direction with a placeholder vote - it is subject to change, though, if a good reason to change comes up over the next couple of hours.

06-09-2009, 02:41 PM	#528
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	Vote Jail Clap I'm as suspicious as RendeR about clap's intentions with his strategy.

06-09-2009, 03:43 PM	#532
SnDvls Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2001	vote jail Barkeep no reason to change my vote from day #1 as no new info has been presented.

06-09-2009, 03:53 PM	#536
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Personally, I'm in no rush jailing BK. Schmidty is going to get lynched tomorrow or Thursday, and if he's good then BK is just a random. If he's bad, then we can jail him them. There's zero rush to this, he's not going anywhere, and the kind of play he did yesterday just doesn't seem like the sort of thing a pair of wolves would do ten minutes into the game - especially after last game. This is, in essence, day 1 version 2, and I think the punish-the-UTRs plan has merit, seeing as we're not killing them and they still get plenty of chance to share what they think. We're not losing much discussion value with this plan. Why would we take another talkative player out of the game with hoops already dead?

06-09-2009, 04:13 PM	#539
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	I can't really justify doing anything to clap here - is this really any different from normal for him? If we lynched him every time he did something like this he'd never make it past day 2. Among the UTRs I'm unsure at this point - USFL, maybe?

06-09-2009, 04:18 PM	#540
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Good thing this game has a late deadline, still most votes out there still and a lot of people I haven't seen at all today.

06-09-2009, 04:30 PM	#541
MartinD High School Varsity Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: East Lothian, Scotland	I'm a little surprised that there hasn't been a bit more activity today - am sure that this will have changed by the time I catch up with the thread in the morning... I don't have any reason to change the vote that I posted earlier, so that's where my vote is going to stay for Day 2.

06-09-2009, 04:34 PM	#542
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Time for the newbie to start talking. And I'm bored. VOTE JAIL USFLTEMCO

06-09-2009, 04:56 PM	#545
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I appreciate you guys not having too many posts to catch up on.

06-09-2009, 04:57 PM	#546
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Now it's time for you to generate some more :P

06-09-2009, 05:06 PM	#548
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	The BK semi-bandwagon just makes me unhappy and suspicious.

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