WW CLVI - Clue: Master Detective - GAME OVER! MURDERERS WIN! (Post 1817)

[hoopsguy]

So, mapping out some of the info we have so far. Please chime in if I'm missing anything.

Big 6: Lathum = Peacock, britrock and Fontsian also have B6 roles
Informants: dead Cop, dead Cook
Other Extras: dead Brunette

ntn = not starting murderer, per brit (N1)
not N1 murderers = KatyLied, bhlloy, mauchow, DT, Saldana, Danny (not at house yet)

Other Extras = KatyLied, hoopsguy, bhlloy, mauchow, DT, Autumn, Saldana, Danny

[path12]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm a little confused about the Cop's death, I have to admit. Unless Scarlett started the game with knowledge about who he was, there's no way she could have found and killed him in one night, no?

There's no reason for that character to not come out and reveal if they are good, so we might find out soon enough. But I think it might be a coincidence that the cop was a NK and nothing to do with Scarlett, unless I'm missing something big.

If, based on what Lathum and britrock88 have stated, the Big Six have a search ability of some sort at night for their adversary, Miss Scarlett could have lucked out and nailed the cop. About the same odds as a day 1 wolf vote I'd imagine, longshot but plausible.

With both Chief and Darth biting it last night the simplest explanation to my mind is that Miss Scarlett did indeed just hit the longshot and the wolves got Darth Vilius.

[bhlloy]

I'd love to go back through CR's posts and see if he tipped off that he might be a cop (unlikely) or someone with a significant role (more likely) but I don't have time at work. Maybe this evening if someone doesn't beat me to it. I think that's probably a key piece of information.

Also, why would britrock still be alive as the outed seer? Has anyone put any suggestions forward to that more interesting than a potential BG block?

[path12]

Though that bit with M. Brunette in makeup -- could HE have been doing a search and ran into Scarlett? I wonder if that would trigger a murder as well?

[Coffee Warlord]

1 - Autumn
1 - Bulletsponge

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Autumn

bulletsponge definitely pinged me yesterday, so I'm interested that you noticed this too. Not only being talkative, but he made a couple comments that kind of threw suspicion around at others. I'll look up what it was. I was going to change my vote to him last night actually but decided to just wait and see if he pinged me more.

oh yea, i saw this last game. try to draw suspicion away from someone else by making them look at another. nice try.

[path12]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Also, why would britrock still be alive as the outed seer? Has anyone put any suggestions forward to that more interesting than a potential BG block?

I don't see how a BG paying attention could have not guarded britrock last night -- though it does seem that roles don't quite match up to traditional ones given some of the revelations yesterday so I could just be talking out my ass.

[Coffee Warlord]

broken image

[bulletsponge]

Vote Autumn

trying to get the mob after me, just like he did last game. the poor villagers fell for it several times too. saved a fellow wolf 2 or 3 times that way

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by path12

With both Chief and Darth biting it last night the simplest explanation to my mind is that Miss Scarlett did indeed just hit the longshot and the wolves got Darth Vilius.

I think that in a regular WW game that would be the most likely explanation but CW has said this will be a bloodbath. Keeping a very open mind on this. If Scarlett hasn't revealed by tomorrow that will have me leaning towards that explanation.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

are you the cook? hmm better not kill you, who will make me a sandwich then?

Exhibit A on bulletsponge, immediately following the "chinese menu" post by murrayyyyy. Indicates that he is paying attention to roles to at least some extent, and that he is thinking about killing people.

This post is a stretch in a vacuum, but it is also how I start building post-analysis cases. Lets see what else I find ...

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't see how a BG paying attention could have not guarded britrock last night -- though it does seem that roles don't quite match up to traditional ones given some of the revelations yesterday so I could just be talking out my ass.

I guess my one issue with that is that there were two kills last night. Seems unlikely that both were game mechanics and not wolf kills. But maybe they were. Maybe there are no wolf kills at all, just people trying to find the people they need to kill (although I can think of a couple reasons that is unlikely)

Again, keeping an open mind about the reveal but I'm a lot more skeptical than I would be in a regular game

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by path12

Though that bit with M. Brunette in makeup -- could HE have been doing a search and ran into Scarlett? I wonder if that would trigger a murder as well?

Valid point here.

[hoopsguy]

Through the first 250 posts of the thread so far, and haven't seen anything from Chief that looks like a role-drop on his part.

Question that I've got for brit/Lathum - do your accounts for the Big 6 mechanics seems to line up so far?

Lathum, does brit having a seer role in addition to his Big 6 role seem consistent for you with the "minor power" that you have but don't want to discuss?

Trying to get a sense for the disconnect between the three Big 6 reveals so far. My gut says that we should be looking here today, barring something substantial on a non-Big6 player coming out.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

I guess what I'm not sure of is how the Big Six would find their targets -- if they get a search, or it is a special order or what.

Figuring out how the Big Six work into it is the main thing I'm trying to understand so far. Something about the idea of going after them sounds counter-intuitive and I'm not sure why.

There are a few posts from path over the last couple of days where he seems to be trying to understand game mechanics. Which is pretty normal stuff.

However, he started at the house. So did 12 others.
3 of which are already revealed as Big 6.
2 of which are already dead.
So he, going by my counting-fingers-math, has a 3/7 chance of also being a member of our Big 6.

If he was an Informant, I strongly doubt that he would be suggesting that going after the Big 6 is "counter-intuitive". If I run with that assumption, we're now at a 3/5 chance that he is Big 6 and 2/5 that he is "Extra" role (Boddy or Wadsworth).

In case, we've forgotten the "extras" roles, I'll quote them as well.

Mr Boddy
Oh yeah. He's here, he's blackmailing you, and he has in his possession six lethal weapons.

Wadsworth
Mr Boddy's personal butler, he himself was being blackmailed by the odious Mr Boddy. It was his idea to gather everyone to the house and confront Mr Boddy.

Anyway, I'm definitely considering path12 to be a person of interest at this stage.

More post digging to come ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

i suspect thats the case too. how can the 6 become murderers? i suspect they have important villager roles also. maybe the bodyguard, but if he guards a certain person he kills them and joins the wolves. a seer that can scan but if they scan the worng person the kill them and join the wolves. same with a duke.. as a matter o fact there are 6 potential, might have 2 of each of those roles. can anyone whos played more than me tell me of other regualar villager roles that might be in the game?

Back to bullet, who is speculating that the Big 6 have the core roles in the game. He has several additional posts where he spitballs on what roles would be tied to names, but this leaves me thinking that he is also Big 6.

[Lathum]

Brits seer role doesn't seem to add up to me, seems very powerful in contrast to what my minor ability is. Not to mention it doesn't add up to have a seer that can turn wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

The way CW has warned about the potential for a bloodbath makes me think that there isn't an option for the Big Six to kill their informer or not, it would just happen. Otherwise there doesn't seem to be a lot of motivation to kill anyone except if you just really want to be a wolf this game.

Again, this seems to line up with path as a member of our Big 6.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by path12

Though that bit with M. Brunette in makeup -- could HE have been doing a search and ran into Scarlett? I wonder if that would trigger a murder as well?

But he was disguised as Plum, no?

[bhlloy]

That's a very interesting theory hoops, I can't necessarily disagree with anything you've said there.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Like hoops, I will also confirm that my "role" has some similarity to a role I have seen in WW in the past, but is not an exact fit.

This is the closest I've seen to role info revealed by Chief Rum. Other than this, at least so far, he is just an engaged player doing what seems like pretty good analysis.

I'm wondering if the Informants have any information in their role indicating who is gunning for them ... for example, if Chief might have known that JAG was a Big 6 member who wanted to kill him (seeing as how the Informants are blackmailing a member of the Big 6) and thus put his vote on him as a way to mark the person for later in the game?

Probably a stretch, but just trying to work through in my head how CW might have balanced this one. The Informants are going to have to try and survive kills from wolves and Big 6, so I would expect they get at least some kind of edge to help them along rather than just being cannon fodder, relatively speaking.

[bulletsponge]

need to wake up earlier from now on. wake up at 10 and theres already people pointing fingers at me. and because ive been encourage to be more talkative and engaged after last game, that makes me a target this game.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Brits seer role doesn't seem to add up to me, seems very powerful in contrast to what my minor ability is. Not to mention it doesn't add up to have a seer that can turn wolf.

Lots of evidence for a fake reveal. But to play devils advocate, in this game I could see several seers, who can be converted.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This is the closest I've seen to role info revealed by Chief Rum. Other than this, at least so far, he is just an engaged player doing what seems like pretty good analysis.

I'm wondering if the Informants have any information in their role indicating who is gunning for them ... for example, if Chief might have known that JAG was a Big 6 member who wanted to kill him (seeing as how the Informants are blackmailing a member of the Big 6) and thus put his vote on him as a way to mark the person for later in the game?

Probably a stretch, but just trying to work through in my head how CW might have balanced this one. The Informants are going to have to try and survive kills from wolves and Big 6, so I would expect they get at least some kind of edge to help them along rather than just being cannon fodder, relatively speaking.

That could be interesting, if the informers know the ID of their big six. Would be good to find out from an informer soon.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Day One vote, so it's worthless. But I waited this long just to see who popped up. I don't like the run on Chubby, even though I would guess it is innocent. If I had to choose between murrayyyyy and britrock, I would likely go with britrock, simply because I have been a wolf with him, and I know he can be a good one. Plus, this is my first time playing with murrayyyyy.

But I would rather see what other reactions we can get to a tighter vote. So I'll vote JAG and get him up even with Chubby. He can handle it.

VOTE JAG

This vote was the 3rd on JAG, putting him up closer to the top with Chubby and murrayyyyy. Would CR do that without some reason to gun for JAG? Maybe? But normally villager Chief is happy to have other analytical players around to riff about the game. The "he can handle it" seems a little odd, although I may be guilty of fitting to my theory right now.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

need to wake up earlier from now on. wake up at 10 and theres already people pointing fingers at me. and because ive been encourage to be more talkative and engaged after last game, that makes me a target this game.

Welcome to werewolf

[bulletsponge]

has britrock checked in this morning? he claimed he had a scan and i want to know who he scaned.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by fontisian

My point is that your premise (that the Big Six are trying to kill their informants) is flawed.

Originally Posted by fontisian

I would only try to kill my informant if I wanted to be a murderer. Since I want to stay town, I'm trying to avoid killing my informant.

This seems inconsistent with what I've heard from Lathum and britrock.
Maybe all Big 6 don't operate exactly the same way, but this is the crux of my concern with fontsian at the moment. That there is an agenda with the reveal. I just can't quite figure out what it is, given that the reveal came at a point in the game where there was zero pressure on fontsian.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Lots of evidence for a fake reveal. But to play devils advocate, in this game I could see several seers, who can be converted.

If this is the case let's face it we are stuffed. If there are multiple seers who could later become wolves, I don't know how we win against that.

I think it's more likely that Britrock's reveal is completely false and we have no true seer, just everyone has roles that are very specific to their character and certain other characters.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

has britrock checked in this morning? he claimed he had a scan and i want to know who he scaned.

check that, saw he scanned ntn

[Danny]

He scanned you as a murderer

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

dude wtf? save that for when your about to hang. i suspect this rookie wont live long

Continuing my theory on bullet = Big 6. Last thing he wants is info coming out about how they actually work.

Probably need to know if bullet is Big 6 before knowing how to read this post perfectly, but it seemed worth quoting on my post-dredging odyssey.

[ntndeacon]

I will say that I am not Scarlett.

[Danny]

I am not Scarlett either

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This seems inconsistent with what I've heard from Lathum and britrock.
Maybe all Big 6 don't operate exactly the same way, but this is the crux of my concern with fontsian at the moment. That there is an agenda with the reveal. I just can't quite figure out what it is, given that the reveal came at a point in the game where there was zero pressure on fontsian.

Agenda is the right word I think. It's the kind of move I make when I'm desperate (and never seems to work out). I can't understand why do it on day 1 with no pressure. Try to lull informant into the open to be killed? Doesn't fill me with confidence, and I don't see a downside to a lynch here right now.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by fontisian

I do not have an additional victory condition, unless I kill my informant and become a murderer. Seriously, if I did I wouldn't have role revealed.

Lathum/brit - is getting your Informant a victory condition?

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Danny

He scanned you as a murderer

well that would be a surprise to me

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

Do you have to specifically request to try and kill that person? Or do you have to search?

And if you have to search do you have to do it every night?

Speaking for myself I appreciate the info since most of my day has been speculating on the Big Six.

Again, assumption was that if path = informant, he would have been gung-ho about getting rid of Big 6.

So either this is false info or else true and it strongly suggests Boddy/Wadsworth.

[bhlloy]

Going back through the writeup this jumps out at me. Makes me feel even worse about britrock's reveal


Also, do not expect roles to be the normal WW roles. There are a few similarities, but for the most part, they are weird.

I don't think CW puts this here if there's a common garden seer in the game. That, coupled with the fact that the claimed seer role is far more powerful and different a role than others I'm aware of in the game right now, I'm calling BS on this one.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It was a placeholder vote. I wanted to see what would happen with a fourth candidate out there. It won't stay there. But I haven't decided where to go yet either.

Personally, I like both murrayyyyy and britrock88 to remain in the game. But I'm not going to hide from the vote and go elsewhere unless another candidate makes themselves available.

Chief talks further about his JAG vote. Maybe much ado about nothing on my part.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Going back through the writeup this jumps out at me. Makes me feel even worse about britrock's reveal


Also, do not expect roles to be the normal WW roles. There are a few similarities, but for the most part, they are weird.

I don't think CW puts this here if there's a common garden seer in the game. That, coupled with the fact that the claimed seer role is far more powerful and different a role than others I'm aware of in the game right now, I'm calling BS on this one.

Subject to further information, I'll agree with what you + Lathum are saying.
Going to keep exploring other stuff in threads, but with the info we have right now I think this makes some sense.
VOTE BRITROCK

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Unvote JAG
Vote murrayyyyy

I don't know about murrayyyyy, but he can't be a worse lynch than I.

Here is the seer reveal, clearly under late vote duress. Not that I'm advocating revealing seer to start Day 1, but you have to be a little more skeptical of the self-serving reveal as powerful role right before deadline.

This would help us learn about voting history from Day 1 (potentially limited use as game goes on and Big 6 convert) while eliminating a confessed Big 6 member from the pool. There is skepticism about the scope of the revealed role ... just enough here to make me feel decent about this vote if it does end up here.

[Autumn]

However, as much as I agree that Brit's reveal is fishy, if he really was the seer it would be smart to keep him around. Either the wolves kill him, and get rid of one of the Big 6 for us, thereby preventing another death and conversoin, or they keep him around and we get some free scans. Certainly we're not going to believe them 100%, but they'll be useful once we find out the truth.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Screw it. It's only worth one scan, but I'm the seer.

And brit held off an extra six minutes before coming out with the full-blown seer reveal.

Would there have been any other role that would have been surrendered at that point capable of turning votes? Probably, but that is the one most interesting for the wolves in an effort to turn someone against them in the thread so they can seer-hunt later.

Still trying to figure out why brit would come out as Big 6 today if a wolf, however. That, plus the inherent risk of "doing wolves job for them" is my struggle with feeling 100% confident in this vote.

[Coffee Warlord]

2 - Autumn
1 - Bulletsponge
1 - Britrock

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by KatyLied

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote murrayyyy

Some quality deadline monitoring and switching late for a first time player

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Some quality deadline monitoring and switching late for a first time player

Attorneys are all too familiar with the mechanics of Werewolf...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by mauchow

unvote chubby
vote brit

Two minutes after reveal, one before deadline. This looks pretty bad if brit was not a (starting) murderer.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Lots of evidence for a fake reveal. But to play devils advocate, in this game I could see several seers, who can be converted.

argggh

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum/brit - is getting your Informant a victory condition?

Scanning/killing our informant is our conversion condition, not a victory condition.