WW CXLVI: Portal GAME OVER - Test8

[Autumn]

Well, to be honest, I placed my vote on RA expecting to change it later in the day. I thought RA was the kind of safe, no-guilt vote that you could expect a wolf to be glad to bandwagon, and I was interested to see who might follow me there. that would be PF, who gives a "I don't think he's a wolf but I'll vote him anyway post."

I think JAG's vote for me is legit, as I wasn't acting like I normally would. Bhlloy too strikes me as honest in moving off of Britrock and onto me. But Darth's vote strikes me as a bandwagon vote also. I'm going to stick to my original plan though and go with PF.

unvote raider's army
vote packer fanatic

[Narcizo]

I'm not over-the-top about any of the candidates but I'm not really feeling much for anyone. Out of Autumn, Raiders and GoldenEagle I think a vote for Golden is the right way to go.

To counter Jag I think a wolf Autumn is self-aware enough to know that voting Raiders is going to raise eyebrows. I can't see any reason why he would feel like he has to vote Raiders in this situation as a wolf. So I'm not really seeing it. I still think a vote for Raiders is a mistake so that leaves me with GoldenEagle or me making a strong enough case against another candidate. I don't feel I can make a strong case against anyone at the moment - I'm tempted to have a stab at Darth Vilius who I'm getting wonky vibes from but I don't know if that's likely to stick.

I'm not a fan of Darth Vilius posts up to now. Seems like typical content-less posts that keep him off of people's erm, under-the-radar radars but don't actually contribute anything. He also voted Jackal (again, so did nearly half the village). DV is a player who if left unchallenged early on is likely to sail into the endgame without creating much in the way of information about himself.

Sod it. I'll see if anyone wants to get on a DV train for now.

Unvote Marc Vaughan
Vote Darth Vilius

[GoldenEagle]

I would also be suspicious of anyone dumping a vote on me at this point. There have been a couple of experienced players go down that road, but don't fall into the trap. It makes little sense that my duel with Jackal would result in me turning into evil. Nothing came out of that at all. Jackal already confirmed he didn't get anything (and we can believe him), so why would I?

[GoldenEagle]

I like the reasoning behind voting for Packer Fanatic. It does look like he latched onto a simple target in Raiders Army, who no doubt would be up for a lynch today as well.

Narcizo, that is just Darth right? He always flys under the radar. I am not saying he is a wolf, he very well could be, but I am not getting those same vibes you are.

VOTE PACKER FANATIC

[Narcizo]

But he's actually making the effort to post - that's what seems a bit unusual to me. :shurg:

[JAG]

Unvote Autumn

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now. Maybe I'm gullible but that explanation makes sense and the better part of my case was based on your vote today.

Vote Darth Vilus

Not sure I'll stay here but let's see what happens. Hopefully some folks like Simbo, Marc, mckerney, and others who have been quiet can throw out some thoughts. We have a rather incomplete voting record from some and not much posting from others, so more info and ideas would be welcome.

[PackerFanatic]

I truthfully hadn't even seen that he already had a vote - and I think sacrificing me will tell you a lot less than it would sacrificing someone like RA.

[bhlloy]

Awwww man. Now my second vote of the day comes out and makes sense and makes me reconsider voting him. And JAG does what I was thinking of doing before me as well.

I'm fine with DV or PF. Both of them are playing the under the radar, only vote for safe candidates game that I would expect a wolf to be playing. I'm gonna hold off until I can get home later and do some better analysis. My one thought is that is usually the kind of game that DV plays and I'm not sure if I can say the same for PF. So maybe that had me leaning a little in that direction.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Your logic is not bad here but the conclusion is wrong. I didn't gain any special ability or turn into a werewolf from the tie. I expected some sort of punishment from the tie but it never happened. In fact, I am thinking that no matter what, there was not going to be a lynch on day 1.

I really have no clue what direction that I am going with my vote today.

I agree that there was never going to be a lynch Day 1. I do think, however, that there was a consequence to the vote. I just don't see having a vote held with nothing happening because of it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Even taking myself out of the mix, I would bet every cent I own that the other four in that list are not all wolves.

This would be an example of "unified theory of werewolf creep" kicking in. If there is one thing that I've learned playing something like 60-70 of these games @ FOFC, it is that you should try to resist jumping too far ahead with your conclusions in these games. Get one wolf, then start reviewing the evidence to find the other ones. Just about anytime someone tries to get too tricky with thinking they have 2+ wolves it ends up being wrong.

I agree. I think that people can successfully do this later in the game but I think nailing more than 2 wolves at any given moment is just about impossible at any point in the game.

[Narcizo]

Whelp I'm going to leave my vote where it is and let you guys all sort it out.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Of the theories floated so far, I think I'll back Barkeep's one ... that there was something to be learned from the Day 1 proceedings.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

Something which has occurred to me, and only strengthens my conviction behind the vote (which since this is so early isn't all that great) is that if the wolves knew that D1 was meaningful this would only increase the chances of them targeting Narc.

So basically my reason for GE goes as follows:

1. I don't believe that we were ever going to lynch someone D1, given the inability to unvote
2. I think from a game design perspective it's unlikely that D1 would be allowed to be truly meaningless
3. Because of the tie we don't know who won D1, if either, between Jackal and GE
4. We do know that Jackal was a villager.
5. We know that Narc pressed the button
6. We know that Narc was the Duke
7. We don't know if #5 and 6 are connected, but the wolves might if GE's D1 "win" turned him evil or made him the head baddie or some such thing, making Narc a more appealing target for them

[Ragone]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Good Morning and welcome to day 4. For this next test enjoy some weighted storage cubes. Due to the excellent nature of The Jackal's testing ability, weighted storage cubes will not be dropped on top of you. Another hypercolliding button has been ordered for tomorrow and will appear tomorrow at exactly........*FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFT*
[/b][/color][/i]

Note the weighted storage cubes will not be dropped on top of you part... maybe this is going to be another non lynch day?

[Marc Vaughan]

Following the general trend ...

Unvote Narcizo

Vote autumn

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Ragone

Note the weighted storage cubes will not be dropped on top of you part... maybe this is going to be another non lynch day?

More likely that there will be a new and cruel way to be disposed of ... rather than leniency imho.

[Marc Vaughan]

Following the general trend (again) ...

Unvote Autumn

Vote Darth Vilus

With regards to my thoughts - currently 'bemused' and trying to catch the threads of explanation going around, personally I'm not seeing any convincing trends and don't think theres enough information to explain anything presently.

I'm hoping someone has special powers who might be able to work out a little more than a poor little tester like myself, I'm just looking to pass the tests and make it to tomorrow myself ...

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree that there was never going to be a lynch Day 1. I do think, however, that there was a consequence to the vote. I just don't see having a vote held with nothing happening because of it.

Do you not think that was just a 'training' exercise for those of us new to the game? ... that was how I saw it (or am I being somewhat innocent in this regard?).

[bhlloy]

I think on balance I like PF a little more than DV based on their respective games. Getting this out there now in case there is a game mechanic that finalizes votes early as on day 1

Unvote Autumn
Vote PF

Subject to change when I get home later and take a look at things a little closer

[tyketime]

My unofficial total shows the following:

Goldeneagle (3) - Barkeep, britrock, hoopsguy
Raiders Army (1) - PackerFanatic
Britrock88 (1) - tyketime
Autumn (1) - Darth Vilus
Mckerney (1) - Julio Riddols
PackerFanatic (3) - Autumn, Goldeneagle, bhlloy
Darth Vilus (3) - Narcizo, JAG, Marc Vaughan

[tyketime]

Looks like there are a few multi-vote candidates, and since no one else agreed with my interpretation of The Jackal's message, I'll go ahead and move off britrock88.

UNVOTE britrock88

I will say that there are a couple players who have either not voted and/or have posted infrequently. You are not doing us any favor with that style, so my vote will probably go in that direction starting tomorrow. It will either spur on some conversation, or just prove my point.

[CrimsonFox]

d0aa5400c53e98c1b4f275df47853949.jpg
(A HyperColliding Superbutton appears)

[britrock88]

Don't worry, all. I fully expect that not all 5 that I pointed out would be wolves. But even netting 2 from that group of 5 is better than average odds (5/19 times 5).

[britrock88]

Shall we discuss what to do with the button before someone pushes it? Is there a cube-holder out there who can do it without sacrificing himself?

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

5. We know that Narc pressed the button
6. We know that Narc was the Duke

For accuracy's sake, don't you mean Zinto pressed the button and had the Duke cube?

[tyketime]

oh... the button. It's so pretty...

[tyketime]

Well, in making sure I participate in the Test, we were instructed to enjoy some weighted storage cubes.

PLAY WITH WEIGHTED STORAGE CUBES

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Shall we discuss what to do with the button before someone pushes it? Is there a cube-holder out there who can do it without sacrificing himself?

Seems like maybe just us two around right now. What are your thoughts on whether to push it or not?

[tyketime]

PRESS BUTTON

[Ragone]

Vote Darth Vilus

Sorry guys, was knee deep in analysis of voting moves when button got dropped.. I think darth is the way to go tonight

[tyketime]

Heading out soon for the movies. I hope my curiosity brings us a good result.

[tyketime]

I don't yet have a good feel for any of three with multi-votes. All three voted Jackal on Day 2. Goldeneagle was the only one of the three to vote Jackal Day 1, so that's as good a tie-breaker as I'm gonna get today.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[Raiders Army]

checking in. Will catch up

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by tyketime

PRESS BUTTON

I don't know how I feel about this.

[Raiders Army]

Okay, I'm good with a GE vote based upon BK's reasoning as well as hoops.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[Raiders Army]

BTW, does anyone have any guesses as to what the colors might mean? I never played Portal, so is there a significance to that?

[bhlloy]

I think if there is a lynch today, we should avoid pushing the button tomorrow. I doubt there's as simple a correlation but it would be good to eliminate as a possibility

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tyketime

PRESS BUTTON

(nothing happens)

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Well, in making sure I participate in the Test, we were instructed to enjoy some weighted storage cubes.

PLAY WITH WEIGHTED STORAGE CUBES

(There are no cubes around)

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Looks like there are a few multi-vote candidates, and since no one else agreed with my interpretation of The Jackal's message, I'll go ahead and move off britrock88.

This "message" theory strikes me as quite strange. What do you think Jackal possibly could know about britrock? And how could he have gotten that information since he was just a vanilla villager.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by KWhit

This "message" theory strikes me as quite strange. What do you think Jackal possibly could know about britrock? And how could he have gotten that information since he was just a vanilla villager.

I agree. Whelp, there seems to be little discussion. I may check in after Survivor and Modern Family. Yesterday was quite a day (personally).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Looks like there are a few multi-vote candidates, and since no one else agreed with my interpretation of The Jackal's message, I'll go ahead and move off britrock88.

UNVOTE britrock88

I will say that there are a couple players who have either not voted and/or have posted infrequently. You are not doing us any favor with that style, so my vote will probably go in that direction starting tomorrow. It will either spur on some conversation, or just prove my point.

For what it is worth, I think it is a pretty good theory. I'm probably not jumping on it more aggressively since it is britrock88's first game ... I don't want him to get hit by something fairly random as his first lynch (on Day 2) in the event that you are wrong. But if I had played a few games with him I would probably have backed you on this theory.

It doesn't make sense in the context of this individual game, I know. But it does make sense in my own personal sense of trying to promote a sense of fun here in the long-term.

[hoopsguy]

I'll go ahead and mention this in the thread just to drive some discussion - I got a PM last night that indicated I would potentially take action on this button if/when it appeared today.

It sounded like others got this PM as well, although I don't know that for sure. I would be curious to hear if others got that PM ... I recognize that it could be something that is offered equally to "villagers" and "wolves" in this case, so I'm not of the opinion this clears/damns me by coming out with the info.

Also curious if anyone else got similar PMs yesterday or on the first day?

[JAG]

Interesting. In that case, I may take back everything I said about that situation.

I wonder if there is still a chance it can be used by one of those people since tyke got the 'nothing happens' response?

[hoopsguy]

I can also say that someone beat me to placing the cube today - I was about two hours late responding by PM. So I won't be the "winner", for whatever that is worth.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

Interesting. In that case, I may take back everything I said about that situation.

I wonder if there is still a chance it can be used by one of those people since tyke got the 'nothing happens' response?

I fully expect that it can. The response was required by PM; posting in the thread was not the action that needed to be taken to satisfy the conditions set.

[KWhit]

It's too quiet in here tonight.

[JAG]

Ok, well since I wasn't one of the people to get the message, I don't exactly know what you're talking about. You had an option to place the storage cube that CF discussed at the beginning of the day? But only if you PM'ed to do so after the button appeared and/or was pushed?

[KWhit]

Anybody have an up to date vote count?

[hoopsguy]

I don't want to go into too much detail about it - both in spirit of the "not quoting PMs" and also to let someone else who did get the PM have some room to fill in a detail or two. But you have the general gist of it.

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, tyketime posted one earlier (post #619) and there have been a couple of votes since then. I think GE is one ahead of Darth at the moment.