2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Radii

I don't know about who is best to be VP, but I don't believe Warren is staying in to fuck over Bernie at all.

Eh a lot happened over the past few days to coalesce around Biden. And her campaign is dead although she's planning to carry on past Super Tuesday.

We know people were promised stuff. I just have to imagine she's getting something big. And VP makes sense since Biden likely has to pick a woman and offer some olive branch to the progressive wing. Plus he needs someone squeaky clean due to his corruption issues. Just makes too much sense.

[GrantDawg]

Nbc is reporting Bloomberg is going to reassess his campaign on Wednesday.

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[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

We know people were promised stuff.

We do? Please share your insider information.

[Thomkal]

Bloomberg is "reassessing" his campaign based on Super Tuesday results. Yeah American Samoa just won't be enough there Mike...

[bronconick]

Biden grabs Minnesota

[molson]

Minnesota and Massachusetts for Biden would be pretty big upsets, 538 had both only a 20% shot for Biden going into today, and the NY Times has him projected ahead in both.

It will be very interesting to see if Biden over-performs in California too and what that will look like there.

Edit: I guess some already calling Minnesota for Biden.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

We do? Please share your insider information.

Bernie has seemingly gone out of his way to piss off people. It wouldn't take much to get candidates to stick it to him.

[molson]

Also funny to see Hillary Clinton now the #3 most likely Dem nominee on PredictIt.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Bernie has seemingly gone out of his way to piss off people. It wouldn't take much to get candidates to stick it to him.

That doesn't answer the question

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

That doesn't answer the question

I'm just saying you don't need to promise people anything.

[GrantDawg]

Biden us winning multiple states that he never went to or spent money at. What that suggest to me is not so much Biden's strength, but how much Bernie had not reached out beyond his own base other than to piss them off.

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[JPhillips]

Exit polls in NC and VA have Biden leading with people that support single payer healthcare.

[JPhillips]

And in NC Biden leads with people that support socialism.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Klobuchar needs to throw in the towel. Bernie is definitely benefitting some from voters having to split votes between four candidates if they are not voting for him.

What a difference two weeks makes...

[ISiddiqui]

I do think Edward is onto something when he says there is bad blood between some Warren and some Sanders supporters. There is also, I believe, some Warren supporters who believe her to be the farthest left candidate they are for. And some who believe Warren and Biden will be better in order to get things done.

Personally I've been a Warren supporter since the beginning and I'll vote for Biden over Sanders for some of those reasons, among others.

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[Galaril]

So what happens if Bloomberg drops out. Biden coasts to the convention?

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And in NC Biden leads with people that support socialism.

Where are you seeing state level exit polling?

[JPhillips]

Way too early to say it's Biden's race, IMO. Things change so fast now.

Bernie's paying the price for he and his supporters refusing to make nice with the supporters of other candidates. He's got a solid 30% or so, but he can't seem to expand on that as other candidates drop out.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

Where are you seeing state level exit polling?

In NC, exit pollsters asked voters in the Democratic primary their view of socialism. 49-41% favorable/unfavorable.

Among those who view socialism favorably... 35% went for Biden, 33% for Sanders, 16% for Warren. (and 8% for Bloomberg, lol).https://t.co/mEZvz5OzbR pic.twitter.com/obxlq8pQld

— Sarah Posner (@sarahposner) March 4, 2020

[Lathum]

Biden about to be crucified for confusing his wife and his sister.

[ISiddiqui]

He's going for that Utah vote

(Though to be serious he reached back without looking)

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[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Way too early to say it's Biden's race, IMO. Things change so fast now.

Bernie's paying the price for he and his supporters refusing to make nice with the supporters of other candidates. He's got a solid 30% or so, but he can't seem to expand on that as other candidates drop out.

That's why he's going to have trouble coming back from behind. Even his speech tonight is less about reaching out to potential new voters and more of a stump speech for his supporters and attacks on Biden.

As someone on 538 mentioned, Sanders messaging style is more in line with what you see from the GOP. I think that does a good job of keeping his base at home, but is a big turn off to other voters.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

We do? Please share your insider information.

Multiple candidates didn't magically drop out at the same time days before the biggest slate of races and endorse another candidate out of the goodness of their hearts.

Deals are always cut in politics. Clinton endorsing Obama hinged on him helping her raise money to wipe off campaign debt. You're smarter than this.

[tarcone]

How are protesters able to rush the stage in this day and age?

[ISiddiqui]

Was that PETA protestors?

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[NobodyHere]

Yeah, just look at the two campaign rally speeches tonight

Bernie is the divisive candidate and Biden is the unity candidate,

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Multiple candidates didn't magically drop out at the same time days before the biggest slate of races and endorse another candidate out of the goodness of their hearts.

Deals are always cut in politics. Clinton endorsing Obama hinged on him helping her raise money to wipe off campaign debt. You're smarter than this.

So what deals were cut? Tell us.

[ISiddiqui]

The shout outs to the endorsers is very smart of Biden.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Was that PETA protestors?

It's an anti-milk protestor which I don't think I've ever seen before.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I do think Edward is onto something when he says there is bad blood between some Warren and some Sanders supporters. There is also, I believe, some Warren supporters who believe her to be the farthest left candidate they are for. And some who believe Warren and Biden will be better in order to get things done.

Personally I've been a Warren supporter since the beginning and I'll vote for Biden over Sanders for some of those reasons, among others.

Bernie supporters demand purity to a fault. Their issue with her is that they feel she's a "phony" progressive. Part of it is true as she's walked back some of her policies and started taking PAC money despite claiming she wouldn't. But you sometimes have to be pragmatic in politics.

Warren was my choice too. But I did get the feeling that a lot of Warren supporters liked the idea of being progressive, but mainly just in theory. When the chips were down, they changed their tune.

[ISiddiqui]

Wow, CNN declares Minnesota for Biden! Even with the Klobuchar endorsement I thought Sanders was going to get it

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So what deals were cut? Tell us.

We will find out. Just like we did with Clinton in 2008 and Sanders in 2016.

Are you this new to politics?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Biden about to be crucified for confusing his wife and his sister.

This might be the first general where neither side wants to debate on live TV.

[GrantDawg]

Bernie had anti-milk protesters come at him as well a couple of weeks ago. One of them was topless. It was utterly ridiculous.

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[ISiddiqui]

Is Biden in the pocket of Big Milk?

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[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This might be the first general where neither side wants to debate on live TV.

An amazing comment I saw on reddit today was something along the lines of "A Trump/Biden debate will have Trump making stuff up and Biden claiming he was there when it happened"

[tarcone]

Why would anyone think Bernie would expand his coalition? He's a socialist in a capitalist society with a strong economy. Duh.

[GrantDawg]

Jill Biden is a bad-ass.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

An amazing comment I saw on reddit today was something along the lines of "A Trump/Biden debate will have Trump making stuff up and Biden claiming he was there when it happened"

There is going to be a moment in the race where they talk about who could beat each other up.

Originally Posted by tarcone

in a capitalist society

lol

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So what happens if Bloomberg drops out. Biden coasts to the convention?

I'll be very interested to see the updates on 538 on Biden's odds to get more than 50% of the delegates. I think Biden coasts in some sense as of tonight already. Tonight makes it virtually impossible for Bernie to win 50% of the delegates, and does anyone believe his odds of winning a contested convention are more than 0%?

[GrantDawg]

AP calls Massachusetts for Biden. That is crazy.

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[Radii]

Are there exit polls or data showing the ages of voters tonight? Bernie needs (needed?) young people to vote in far greater numbers than they normally do to have a chance, but I don't think that's actually happening. I know in South Carolina the voting rates for those under 35 were awful. Young people love Bernie, but if he can't inspire them to actually make it all the way to the voting booth, he really doesn't deserve to win anyway.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So what happens if Bloomberg drops out. Biden coasts to the convention?

My question is does he put his money toward helping the Democratic nominee win or does he go away?

[tarcone]

Why would Bloomberg drop out? He has spent like $5 of our dollars on his "campaign". He may as well make a national name for himself ans set himself up for 2024.

[GrantDawg]

AP calls California for Bernie. We won't know how the delegates splits there for days.

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[molson]

I'm so glad to live in a state where I've never waited more than 1 minute to vote, even on an actual election day. It's so embarrassing that people are waiting in line in Texas and California for hours after the polls close.

[Galaril]

Wow Biden in the lead in Texas.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm so glad to live in a state where I've never waited more than 1 minute to vote, even on an actual election day. It's so embarrassing that people are waiting in line in Texas and California for hours after the polls close.

I get Texas because voter suppression is their thing. But get your fucking shit together California.

We can argue politics all day but the one unifying force for all Democrats should be ending the voter suppression nonsense. It should not take 2 hours to vote just because you live in a certain part of a state. You should not have to travel long distances to vote. You should not have to constantly check to make sure you haven't been purged from the voter rolls.

You can bring up all the issues facing a Democrat in an election but this should be the single biggest one right now.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1VV09J

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Radii

Are there exit polls or data showing the ages of voters tonight? Bernie needs (needed?) young people to vote in far greater numbers than they normally do to have a chance, but I don't think that's actually happening. I know in South Carolina the voting rates for those under 35 were awful. Young people love Bernie, but if he can't inspire them to actually make it all the way to the voting booth, he really doesn't deserve to win anyway.

I saw a poll showing that Biden won (slightly) over Bernie with first-time Dem primary voters in a specific state (forgot which one,) but it wasn't broken down by age. Certainly some of those were former R primary voters who just went with the most moderate D, but I'd THINK that a healthy chunk of that group were younger voters.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Certainly some of those were former R primary voters who just went with the most moderate D...

Dola


Speaking of this, has anyone seen D primary turnout numbers compared to 2016? I'm asking because on Saturday there were multiple FB posts from my SC friends (mostly white suburban "compassionate conservatives" who went to the same outreach church in the 'hood that I did, and are vocal about their disdain for Trump) declaring that they'd voted in their first Dem primary ever. I don't *think* that would be a particularly big group overall, but I guess it's possible I'm underestimating it.