2019 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

We'll get this going early this year... no superhorse emerging from the contenders as we are amidst the 3yo "prep race season."

Nice summary here: 2019 Derby Watch | Daily Racing Form

Video links to prep races, conveniently in one place: http://www.andheretheycome.com/kentu...e-results.html

[weegeebored]

Some more information here: TFUS figures

CJ is arguably the best figure maker in the country. He had his own subscriber site several years ago, and then he was hired by TimeFormUS (now owned by DRF) to make the numbers for them. Great handicapper in his own right as well. I am not affiliated in any way with DRF or TimeForm.

[QuikSand]

I really liked the looks of that run by LONG RANGE TODDY. Showed some maneuverability, handled a strange pace setup, positioned nicely, and drove home strong. Nice.

[QuikSand]

Field basically set... betting should be a mess, with no particularly clear favorite.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._available_123

I have a future ticket on VEKOMA, but am not in love at all.

[larrymcg421]

I saw three of the horses at the Louisiana Derby a few weeks ago. My friend had a nice payout with upset victor By My Standards, who won in an exciting finish against Spinoff. War of Will was a huge pre-race favorite, but faded badly down the stretch in an awful performance.

[QuikSand]

Here's what I mean about wide open...

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...dds-Pool-4.pdf

It's been 20 years, I think, since we had a pre-race favorite as high as 5-1... haven't looked it up but I was there in 99 and I think Stephen Got Even was 9-2... maybe Lawyer Ron was close to there (4-1 or so) in 2007?

Anyway, based on the last round of advance wagering, the betting had put ROADSTER a tepid 6-1 favorite off his SA Derby win. Is he going off as the favorite this year? Who can say, the argument for five or six to be the favorite is there, and that basically doesn't happen.

[weegeebored]

This year could fit into my KD betting strategy as I always like to beat the favorite. That strategy has cost me EXs and TRIs 3 out of the last 6 years (had the fave underneath but not on top). This year we will have a tepid favorite, perhaps even tepid co-favorites. At this point in their careers I am not seeing any world beaters. Looking forward to QuikSand's analysis.

[QuikSand]

Kentucky Derby 2019 and Oaks: Post position draw odds, the favorite

We're still a week out from next week's post position draw (and the morning-line odds to go with it), but there are bets being taken on the Derby already on sites like Bovada, which as of Monday had a pair of Bob Baffert-trained horses still favored ahead of Omaha Beach:

Game Winner 5-1
Roadster 5-1
Omaha Beach 6-1
Improbable 7-1
Tacitus 10-1
Maximum Security 11-1
Vekoma 12-1
Code Of Honor 14-1
Cutting Humor 20-1
Tax 20-1
War Of Will 20-1
Win Win Win 20-1
By My Standards 25-1
Haikal 25-1
Long Range Toddy 25-1
Plus Que Parfait 25-1
Spinoff 25-1
Country House 33-1
Master Fencer 66-1

I'm trying to mentally work with those numbers for now. This is going to be a great betting race, if we can find somebody to actually back. TACITUS as 10-1 seems like an overlay, among the shorter prices. Maybe Mott outside of his usual lane (NY, turf) is actually an angle, rather than a reverse angle?

[QuikSand]

2019 Kentucky Derby field: Get to know all 20 horses, contenders

[QuikSand]

Great write-ups on recent workouts...

https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...ent_works_123#

[QuikSand]

Might be time to nickname him 2019BELMONTWINNERTACITUS

[cartman]

It might just be recency bias, but this seems to be the most wide-open betting field I've seen in a long time. Usually there has been a movement toward a favorite or two by this point. I wouldn't call a 5-1 shot a solid favorite.

[QuikSand]

Okay, maybe its the bourbon talking, but I think the conversation around this year's Derby revolves around OMAHA BEACH. He's a front-running type, a credentialed winner, and has enough pedigree to not be a throwout.

So... who either tires him out with early pressure, or has the quality to run him down late? (I will accept nobody as the two-part answer, and at something approximating 6-1, I might well do so)

[QuikSand]

An angle guy lays out his angles:

DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

These are the nine key factors (or categories) in my Derby Strikes System:

THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Justify in 2018 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 53 of the last 56 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006, Big Brown in 2008, Animal Kingdom in 2011, I’ll Have Another in 2012, American Pharoah in 2015, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Justify in 2018. Grindstone, Fusaichi Pegasus, Barbaro, I’ll Have Another, American Pharoah and Always Dreaming each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom had made four starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown and Justify had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018 are the only Kentucky Derby winners who didn’t race as a 2-year-old. Through 2018, the score is 142-2 in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 1 for 63 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to win, place or show were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; Battle of Midway, third in 2017; and Justify, first in 2018.)
THE NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

Source: It's Post Time by Jon White: First Derby Strikes for 2019 - XBTV

My thoughts: A lot of this held water until about 2014... since then, it seems like no rule is safe. Exercise caution. He himself ignore his own rules to pick Justify last year. So why not back the zero-strike CUTTING HUMOR this year? (Maybe because he's not sure thing for the distance, which is not well included in the strikes system)

[QuikSand]

And seriously... other than "wins" what do you want from this guy?

Pasteboard - Uploaded Image

It's right there. If he wins, we'll look back and say "oh the quality was there the whole time."

5-1? Are you joking?

(yes, is is indeed the bourbon talking)

[TCY Junkie]

I'm taking improbable and game winner. Heard CD is making the track heavier than most years cause of all the breakdowns, might not want a front runner this year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Derby favorite Omaha Beach scratched from race

[QuikSand]

On my "to do list" for today (slipping to tomorrow, it seems) is to figure out the pace scenario for the remaining field. I felt OB had a real shot to get the lead, and I am fully certain that Mike Smith would have set out to do just that. Now... not sure who really guns for it. VEKOMA, TAX, and SIGNALMAN all seem like possible candidates. I will take seriously any horse who guns to the front, as I don't see enough pace to wear anyone out. If you can make the lead and have just barely enough breeding to get the distance, that coudl be enough this year. Any of those three could be a tasty hit.

[murrayyyyy]

I guess I've settled on a tribox involving 4 which no one really like. I think the track will be in fair condition with the days of rain before hand.

going with Max, Roadster, Tac and BMS as my 4 in an open race. Think two from 8 and in finish in the top 3, it's just finding which ones.

[QuikSand]

Super early money has VEKONA a surprising favorite... seems bogus but worth noting. Early pace play, I guess.

[QuikSand]

...and ROADSTER at 30. Could be some unexpected value there.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Super early money has VEKONA a surprising favorite... seems bogus but worth noting. Early pace play, I guess.

Is it online?

[QuikSand]

I have the TwinSpires betting app, and it has early betting on things like the Oaks/Derby Double up. When it shows the Derby field it has updated win odds for the Derby field. Real money will come in tomorrow and be far more credible.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I have the TwinSpires betting app, and it has early betting on things like the Oaks/Derby Double up. When it shows the Derby field it has updated win odds for the Derby field. Real money will come in tomorrow and be far more credible.

Being in TX they took viewing live racing on twinspires away end of last year, before that I could watch it while not being able to bet for years. Loved looking at double will pays and such....I can still look at replays, but couldn't see how to look at current odds. Good luck.

[QuikSand]

(pasted from a missive sent to friends)

Spent some real time last night on this (thanks, insomnia!) and waffled a lot on the #1 horse, WAR OF WILL. I am going to be using him in some tickets, and I expect him to fetch a pretty good price.

The case:

-highly regarded on prep trail… he as the favorite in each of his last 4 races (3 of them wins) after a good run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year.

-broke his maiden over an off track (at Churchill too), and breeding supports that – he might welcome the rain, and it looks like it may well be coming

-connections have intimated they are going to let him go (in the #1 spot, you sort of have to commit to being toward the front or getting swallowed up… I don’t think he can win by running through traffic, so GO) and I remain fairly convinced that toward the front is the place to be in this race… I expect him to fight to keep the rail and stay at least in the top six through ¾ mile

-superior “bullet” workout over the CD track this week

The case against:

-last time out, very poor showing and ran well behind a fairly undistinguished field… that is what has tumbled him from top tier contender to afterthought

-speed figures show him doing okay, but nothing too gaudy – no 100+ figs by the BRIS numbers, while several in this field have done that at least once (some a few times already) – so he’d have to really improve

-when he has lost, it has been by getting caught from behind… while those races are mainly on turf, it’s still worrisome to see him fading late at shorter distances than the 10f Derby

If the betting public were inclined to give him a pass for a bad start in the LaDerby and look at his overall record (the stuff above) I think he would belong somewhere around 12-1 here. I think he’s going to go off at a LOT higher odds than that – he’s at 25-1 right now in Friday early wagering, and I expect that’s roughly where he lands.

I think he has a solid chance to get the lead or at least hold the rail without any really serious early speed in this field, and then after that – who knows? He might like the wet going, he might not get too tired out, and he might be able to finish as strongly as he did January. Admittedly, he’d need to patch together the best parts of his two wins this year to get it done Saturday, but if we’re tossing out the LaDerby effort as a bad start, then he’s got a decent stretch of time to show the advance.

He is going to be among my legendary “value” plays for this race. Probably not my central pick to win, but I will have some tickets using him at or near the top.

[QuikSand]

Hearing insiders say that ROADSTER looks like he has lost a lot of weight, and doesn't look right in person. The in-town buzz is not good, and the super-early wagering is reflecting that. He's going to go off a good deal higher than 6-1, maybe 12 or 15.

[QuikSand]

One early ticket I'm putting down now:

1 3 16 (WAR OF WILL, BY MY STANDARDS, GAME WINNER)
1 2 3 5 13 16
1 2 3 5 8 13 15 16 18

As a $.50 TRI, that's a $52.50 ticket.

Taking a stand against
6 VEKOMA
7 MAXIMUM SECURITY
17 ROADSTER

[QuikSand]

FYI, I’m seeing updated odds in the TwinSpires app, and they have it:

9-2 #5 IMPROBABLE
5-1 #7 MAXIMUM SECURITY
6-1 #16 GAME WINNER
7-1 #17 ROADSTER
…
Then a cluster at 14 or 15 including 1 WAR OF WILL, 3 BY MY STANDARDS, 13 CODE OF HONOR, and 14 WIN WIN WIN

Live odds should show up on the website soon, I'd expect.
Live Odds and Entries for the 2019 Kentucky Derby | 2019 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 3rd and 4th, 2019

[cartman]

I think the money is starting to move towards IMPROBABLE

[Arles]

I'm beginning to really like Tacitus, I think he will be the one I lean. I also think two of Baffert's horses will be in there. The threat of weather with some fears I have about Roadster (like Quik) have him as the odd man out. So, I'm going an exacta box of: 5 (Improbable ) - 8 (Tacitus) - 16 (Game Winner)

For long shots, I'm leaning the 13 Code of Honor (12-1) and 3 By My Standards (14-1). The 3 has looked good in training and I like his spot (right next to Improbable). For the 13, it's just a bet on his trainer (Shug McGaughey) and the longer odds. A really long shot would be 18 long range toddy (44-1) - but only if it's a decent track.

I'm struggling with a trifecta as I like 3-5-8-13-16 for the Win and Show spots, but my fear is someone like War of Will or Win Win Win sneaking into 2nd. If I were to make one prediction, it is that I think one of 5/8/16 wins, there's a surprise 2nd and the 3rd is one of 3/5/8/13/16. With that in mind, I may try some more long shot exactas and stay away from putting a bunch of money on a boxed tri.

[TCY Junkie]

Have 7,13,14 with 1 5 14 16 double. Casse said he never had a horse that trained as consistently. Seen his replays and look like got speed to avoid getting trapped.

[cartman]

Got my bets in. Put combos and exacta boxes down on:

IMPROBABLE
MAXIMUM SECURITY
TACITUS
GAME WINNER

Very, very chalk.

[JPhillips]

Wow. I didn't think they'd have the guts to disqualify.

[cartman]

Well, that ended up being a big 0-fer for me.

[Butter]

I'm going to go ahead and figure everyone on social media that is super pissed about this had money on the 7.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Butter

I'm going to go ahead and figure everyone on social media that is super pissed about this had money on the 7.

No. My wife didn't, but is super-pissed.

[PilotMan]

Fuck Matt Bevin

[PilotMan]

That was 100% the correct call

[PilotMan]

I love Kentucky when they boo the winner because of this.

[digamma]

It's a weird result though. I'm trying to think of a comparison. Curry fouls Harden and Dame gets free throws as a result?

[Shkspr]

The anarchist in me now wants Maximum Security to race and win both Preakness and Belmont, just to watch the world burn.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Fuck Matt Bevin

I noticed he got the Roger Goodell treatment when announcing the winner. Do the people hate him or were they just booing the decision?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by digamma

It's a weird result though. I'm trying to think of a comparison. Curry fouls Harden and Dame gets free throws as a result?

It is kinda weird, but there's no other way to do it in a race. I remember a 110m hurdles World Championship race where Liu Xiang was impeded by Dayron Robles. This put Xiang down to third. Robles was disqualified and this bumped the American runner from 2nd to 1st and Xiang from 3rd to 2nd.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

That was 100% the correct call

I was laughing first 10 minutes. NBC acting like 7 was staying up. They murdered the 1. Chopped him up in barrel. Dumped in ocean. They weren't ever going to find the 1 in top 3 after that luck. 20 pinch him too but that was just racing goes.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I noticed he got the Roger Goodell treatment when announcing the winner. Do the people hate him or were they just booing the decision?

I think it was a mix of both, but he has the lowest approval rating of any governor in the US right now. So, a lot of the former. But I also think it's booing by the people who had been holding winning tickets just a few minutes earlier. That's something I would expect would happen here too. The other part of this is that this is in Louisville, which is one of the only bastions of liberals (along with Lexington) in the entire state. Bevin has pulled so much shit against people in that town, he is lucky they even let him come in the city.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

I was laughing first 10 minutes. NBC acting like 7 was staying up. They murdered the 1. Chopped him up in barrel. Dumped in ocean. They weren't ever going to find the 1 in top 3 after that luck. 20 pinch him too but that was just racing goes.

I saw it in real time, and I was like "damn, that's a big push and a lot of contact."


Looked like the horses kicked each other, and at least 4 horses were contacted. The 20 was the least impacted directly, but he was pushed a good lane wider than normal and off his stride too. The 2 horses in the middle were screwed, and the last horse on the rail got bumped when he came flying back to the inside. The commentators were driving me nuts. Like, rules are shit, and we just give it to the 'best horse, cause he won' and let it go. I actually felt physically ill for that whole team, but even they knew how it was going to go. You could read it on their faces.

[molson]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Like, rules are shit, and we just give it to the 'best horse, cause he won' and let it go.

I couldn't tell you the difference between an OK horse bump and a horse bump that warrants a DQ, but I was amused by, "well, he's the best horse, so he should be the winner." I was pretty sure that wasn't the standard.

[Logan]

Not even a racing fan/much of a follower but I saw it happen live and knew it was a problem.

[stevew]

That's some Zola Budd level interference

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

The anarchist in me now wants Maximum Security to race and win both Preakness and Belmont, just to watch the world burn.

Yeah, that sentiment surfaced in my group yesterday. I suspect he might not even ship to Baltimore, but I suspect he'd be the favorite if he did.

FWIW, totally agreed on taking him down, and not only because I was invested in the #1 who got completely compromised by the wide drift. I honestly didn't really see how bad it was during the race - my eyes went to the #13 making a really big move along the rail, and it wasn't evident in real time how the gap opened up so much for him from the #7's movement.

On another line... did anyone else try to pay attention to the #16 GAME WINNER? Holy cow what an awful trip, he got pinched early, swept wayyyyyyy outside to try to gain ground, and ended up back up into the pack somewhere around 7th or 8th, I suspect. Nobody is going to give him credit for running 8th, but holy cow that was a serious effort.

Have to think TACITUS takes his fully expected 5 week break and comes back for the Belmont, where I will love him. The rest? Who knows, but the Preakness could have more than the usual intrigue. Against a median-quality field that includes MAX SEC, where would we put the odds on COUNTRY HOUSE? Maybe something like a 4-1 second choice? Maybe higher? He definitely has a chance to be that fairly rare Derby winner who runs in the Preakness but isn't the favorite. (Mine that Bird was the last, I think)