Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[tyketime]

OK - while I am still figuring out what happened last night, and before it starts getting crazy again today, it's time for me to play true confessions. I have avoided the "what have I bid on game" because there was no way for me to answer without either lying or revealing additional information which I wasn't ready to do. Until now. As I've said all along, I am a resident of Vegas. But I was lucky enough to also have a special skill

You are a resident of Vegas, but you're more than that. You're a gambler of a different sort, the kind of guy who rolls the dice on quick money schemes. You can't win them all, but you don't need to. You only need to win a few to be ahead in the long run. You have a special ability - once in the game you can choose to invest any amount up to your total balance. For each additional night that you survive, the amount you invested doubles. When you are ready to cash in, you must include that instruction in addition to any other activity you may be able to make that night. If you are killed before you request your invested money back, that money will be removed from the game.

Since this is my first game of Werewolf, it was enough to try & figure out how to play the regular game. But this money mechanic on top of it is just crazy. So the first night, I didn't make any bids. I wanted to see how much services went for, etc. The next day, I made [this] post because I was blown away that the strategy would be anything other than winning money (in fact, I'm still not really sure I understand it, but that's ok...). I also did some research. I looked back over the last 7 games of Werewolf where I could reasonably figure out what was going on. And I calculated that the average game lasted 4.25 nights (30 nights/7 games). The average number of players was between 12-13. (I told you I dabbled with math...). Since we have 19 players, I guessed (rightly or wrongly) that this game may last an additional 3 day/night cycles. So on Night 2, I decided to invest half my money. I put $500 into the quick money scheme, leaving me with $500.

Since then, I have unsuccessfully bid on Janet & the Graceland Wedding Chapel. In fact, I haven't won a bid yet. I'm sure those of you that won services could confirm that I am telling the truth.

This game is very interesting in that pressures mount (sometimes direct and sometimes implied). I know I was beginning to face additional scrutiny, and I gave myself a day to figure out a way to play it. But with the services that have been purchased, anything other than the truth would be easily disproved. Certainly at this point of the game. And when we are so close to victory.

Now that we finally offed mckerney, and with the surprising demise of saldana, it's probably looking like 7 of us left, and 2 wolves (one from each family). I do have some other ideas I want to explore. But that's it for now.

Hi. I'm tyketime. And I am a Resident.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm not so sure. I could see each wolf team having a special kill ability, being mobsters as they are.

True. It might be flavor but the kill was described as professional, a mob hit, whereas the black market hitman is described as "less professional than Knuckles", who refused to do a mob hit. It would make sense that the last Lupini would wait to use the power until they had a sure mobster they could target (assuming the wolves believed me).

[The Jackal]

FYI tyke it's considered poor form to quote PM's, but interesting reveal.

And very interesting night actions. Pass wasn't at the top of my list of the uncleared's anyways, but even with a possible cunning I'm willing to look elsewhere. Zinto, cougar, and ntn are probably at the top of my suspicion list, not really in any order.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Well, since you bought the service, you know it better than I do. And Zinto's a newbie -- did it seem like it might be intimidating to use it?

Not sure I can judge. It has been a long time since I was new.

That said, no, it's not normally intimidating. But I could see where a new player might not want to have to choose blindly. Still, it's a tremendous advantage to have that PM partner--not sure Zinto would have given that up.

[Passacaglia]

Thanks, tyke. When did you cash in, or, when do you plan to?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would like to know who won the betting parlor from yesterday.

Agree with this -- but we didn't find out who won it the day before, so I doubt we will find out who won it last night. But you never know, I guess.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by JAG

True. It might be flavor but the kill was described as professional, a mob hit, whereas the black market hitman is described as "less professional than Knuckles", who refused to do a mob hit. It would make sense that the last Lupini would wait to use the power until they had a sure mobster they could target (assuming the wolves believed me).

It's an interesting study of semantics. I indicated yesterday that Crazy Legs since he wasn't as professional, would be willing to make a hit (resident or mafia). But the kill was described as professional. So which meaning of "professional" is it?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

FYI tyke it's considered poor form to quote PM's

It's one of those standard rules that I normally include in all my games. Of course the one game I decided to go with a minimal rule listing was the one all the new guys joined. But for all you new guys reading along, it's normally against rules to quote from any PM directly, you can only paraphrase.

That along with no editing of posts, and no talking about the game outside of the thread are kind of the core rules I guess.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

FYI tyke it's considered poor form to quote PM's, but interesting reveal.

Hey all (and especially to Autumn)... I apologize...

[tyketime]

I got the no editing piece from previous threads. Again... I'm sorry...

[Passacaglia]

Also, now that tyke has come out with his amount of cash being $500, I might as well drop this info publicly. I won Destiny on Night 4, and found out that tyketime had $500. That's why I've been hounding everyone for their spending -- to get him to explain how he had that weird amount (since it didn't match with any of the service totals). Also on Night 4, I used Speedeez to tell JAG about how tyketime had $500, and how that meant he was probably a wolf. Then last night, I used Speedeez to tell Chief Rum about this. And shortly after, tyketime finally reveals this. Also, around the same time, CR suggests one wolf from each group, just to get the idea that there could be collaboration here out of our heads. Just some stuff to think about -- CR may have a special role and may have given us a Vampiri, but he and tyke could still be Lupino.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Hey all (and especially to Autumn)... I apologize...

No problem. It could still be fabricated. All you did was take some language, and put it in a quote box. Personally, I don't think it makes your reveal any more the case that it *has* to be true because of it.

[Chief Rum]

Don't sweat it, tyke. We have all played our first games and made our mistakes.

Very interesting reveal.

I think we should be very careful about who we determine to be cleared, based on scans. Always follow the chain back to who cleared who, so we can get a clearer picture of the manner in which a player is cleared.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thanks, tyke. When did you cash in, or, when do you plan to?

I haven't cashed in yet. But with the end game in sight, it needs to be soon. However, in looking over the services today, I see Lefty has gone to the dark side and so I don't exactly want to announce myself as carrying too much extra cash.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, now that tyke has come out with his amount of cash being $500, I might as well drop this info publicly. I won Destiny on Night 4, and found out that tyketime had $500. That's why I've been hounding everyone for their spending -- to get him to explain how he had that weird amount (since it didn't match with any of the service totals). Also on Night 4, I used Speedeez to tell JAG about how tyketime had $500, and how that meant he was probably a wolf. Then last night, I used Speedeez to tell Chief Rum about this. And shortly after, tyketime finally reveals this. Also, around the same time, CR suggests one wolf from each group, just to get the idea that there could be collaboration here out of our heads. Just some stuff to think about -- CR may have a special role and may have given us a Vampiri, but he and tyke could still be Lupino.

I know you're cleared, having scanned you, so I know you're coming at this from an honestly held opinion. And I agree that no one--including me--is 100% cleared until we know that a cleared villager has cleared them.

That said, I like to think I have established my credentials. Not only have I done much for the village with my cash, but the presence of the Casino Owner was confirmed by hoops' death. I claimed the Casino Owner role, and no one has gone against that. And I have provided the only satisfactory explanation for PF's lynching on Day Two, demonstrating my ability as the Casino Owner. That's all on top of handing the village mckerney.

Point is, we have plenty of truly uncleared players to go on. I don't think it would be productive right now to start barking up the trees of players who relatively cleared.

[Chief Rum]

FWIW, I have reason to believe ntndeacon is a villager, just using some guesswork. If he is, then he will be able to tell me the last three digits of the four digit number I have in mind from an action he would have taken a couple nigths ago. It won't clear him (or whoever has that answer), but I would be shocked if that person is a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

FWIW, I don't deny the existence of the Casino Owner, or that you're not really the Casino Owner. I'm not convinced that the Casino Owner is necessarily a good role.

And yes, you've helped the village with your cash, I don't deny that. Can you provide a little more of how you've helped? I've got you down as winning Speedeez and sending a message to mauboy1, and getting married to mauboy1 the same night. Can you clear that up?

And yes, you handed us mckerney, a Vampiri -- I addressed that when saying that you and tyke could still be Lupino.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, now that tyke has come out with his amount of cash being $500, I might as well drop this info publicly. I won Destiny on Night 4, and found out that tyketime had $500. That's why I've been hounding everyone for their spending -- to get him to explain how he had that weird amount (since it didn't match with any of the service totals). Also on Night 4, I used Speedeez to tell JAG about how tyketime had $500, and how that meant he was probably a wolf. Then last night, I used Speedeez to tell Chief Rum about this. And shortly after, tyketime finally reveals this. Also, around the same time, CR suggests one wolf from each group, just to get the idea that there could be collaboration here out of our heads. Just some stuff to think about -- CR may have a special role and may have given us a Vampiri, but he and tyke could still be Lupino.

There's no way he and Tyke could both be Lupino. If you wanted to concoct such a story, it would have to be Chief and I working together, because I am the one who cleared him.

[Zinto]

The reason why I did not use the wedding chapel was I was not sure who to trust on the list of people since it was only night two and I did not know who to use it on.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

There's no way he and Tyke could both be Lupino. If you wanted to concoct such a story, it would have to be Chief and I working together, because I am the one who cleared him.

Sounds good. Could you be Vampiri, and didn't want to out a Lupino that early?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FWIW, I don't deny the existence of the Casino Owner, or that you're not really the Casino Owner. I'm not convinced that the Casino Owner is necessarily a good role.

And yes, you've helped the village with your cash, I don't deny that. Can you provide a little more of how you've helped? I've got you down as winning Speedeez and sending a message to mauboy1, and getting married to mauboy1 the same night. Can you clear that up?

And yes, you handed us mckerney, a Vampiri -- I addressed that when saying that you and tyke could still be Lupino.

Pass, you're really wasting your time here.

I'll go off of the top of my head. I may miss a bit.

I won the betting parlor first night and revealed the bets. The Lathum bettors from that bet list essentially led us to two wolves (both Lupinos, BTW).

I did get PF (a villager) killed, but I think the money I gained has helped the village more than PF's vanilla role would have, and we were on our way to killing a likely villager anyway (DV).

I had no money for Day Two, having spent it all on the parlor.

Day Three, I bought the parlor again, the courier service (PM'd JAG), the wedding chapel (married mauboy1) and the showgirl (revealed hoops had $849 when he died).

Day Four, I bought Lefty and the seer. I stole $283 from sal with Lefty, and found mckerney, a wolf.

Day Five (with results coming this morning), I bought the seer and the BG. I protected myself and scanned you.

By comparison, you have done far less, and in actuality, your status as a cleared villager depends on me being a villager.

I know you want to cover all your bases, but I really think it would be far more productive to take a look at our remaining uncleareds.

[Zinto]

I agree with Chief that we should look at the remaining people that have not been scanned or scanned someone just since it is easier at this point.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

By comparison, you have done far less, and in actuality, your status as a cleared villager depends on me being a villager.

There's also hoops saying I had exactly $1000. Anyway, I'm not sure what you mean by that. Are you saying I'm "less cleared" because you might not be a villager?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

There's also hoops saying I had exactly $1000. Anyway, I'm not sure what you mean by that. Are you saying I'm "less cleared" because you might not be a villager?

Until this morning, you were uncleared. I have no cleared you. If you think I am questionable, you call others to beliebve you yourself are potentially quesitonable. In this game, you're only as cleared as the person who cleared you.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Until this morning, you were uncleared. I have no cleared you. If you think I am questionable, you call others to beliebve you yourself are potentially quesitonable. In this game, you're only as cleared as the person who cleared you.

I'm not concerned with how cleared I am, so I don't mind. I'd rather find wolves than make sure I seem cleared. So you know this line of reasoning is not going to work on me!

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sounds good. Could you be Vampiri, and didn't want to out a Lupino that early?

If I were in Vampiri Why not? For one, I found out he had the Casino Owner role when I scanned him so we couldve eliminated a roled adversary, it would've bought trust in me, It would ruin the voting record for the day, and I would've made a ton of money for the family as the only bettor of him that day as confirmed by Mau and as I admitted before he revealed.

For full disclosure, I bought the 24 hr check cashing the night it went for $218 (I had 222 left after scanning CR but knew I was going to be possibly the only winner of the bet vs Crimson Fox). I was afraid I might be offed since the wolves knew I won my bet, so I diversified by sending CR half of my winnings.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

If I were in Vampiri Why not? For one, I found out he had the Casino Owner role when I scanned him so we couldve eliminated a roled adversary, it would've bought trust in me, It would ruin the voting record for the day, and I would've made a ton of money for the family as the only bettor of him that day as confirmed by Mau and as I admitted before he revealed.

For full disclosure, I bought the 24 hr check cashing the night it went for $218 (I had 222 left after scanning CR but knew I was going to be possibly the only winner of the bet vs Crimson Fox). I was afraid I might be offed since the wolves knew I won my bet, so I diversified by sending CR half of my winnings.

Thanks JAG, that helps. Can you tell me how you knew that I won the BG service on Night 4, and why you outed me that night?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

If I were in Vampiri Why not? For one, I found out he had the Casino Owner role when I scanned him so we couldve eliminated a roled adversary, it would've bought trust in me, It would ruin the voting record for the day, and I would've made a ton of money for the family as the only bettor of him that day as confirmed by Mau and as I admitted before he revealed.

For full disclosure, I bought the 24 hr check cashing the night it went for $218 (I had 222 left after scanning CR but knew I was going to be possibly the only winner of the bet vs Crimson Fox). I was afraid I might be offed since the wolves knew I won my bet, so I diversified by sending CR half of my winnings.

JAG, can you tell me the last three digits of the amount you sent me, just to confirm?

[JAG]

I didn't realize until I got a PM from CR that the money was sent anonymously also, in case you want to try and make a story of that too. Anyway, clearly CR and Pass are the absolute bottom of my list as wolves.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

JAG, can you tell me the last three digits of the amount you sent me, just to confirm?

500.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

I didn't realize until I got a PM from CR that the money was sent anonymously also, in case you want to try and make a story of that too. Anyway, clearly CR and Pass are the absolute bottom of my list as wolves.

I didn't know that, either. But I didn't know CR had even received money, so since you knew that, I figure you must be the one who sent it, so I wouldn't try to refute that.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

500.

Yup.

[Chief Rum]

Oh, and thanks.

BTW, this is what I was referring to before with my ntn post. Obviously, I was wrong in my guess there, and i thad nothing to do with ntn.

[The Jackal]

This is going to be a much tougher decision than the past few days.

[The Jackal]

NTN has definitely pinged me much more than JAG in terms of people that have used Mario to clear someone. I don't know if I want to go with gut over the remaining uncleareds, but it's a possible direction.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thanks JAG, that helps. Can you tell me how you knew that I won the BG service on Night 4, and why you outed me that night?

When you responded to hoops about how you didn't spend your money, you said you tried bidding $10 for everything. So when the list came out N4 and someone had won a number of services for $5 each and you posted a resounding Yes! after results were announced, it was simple to connect the dots. I outed you as BG because I knew I had the NK that night so it's protection wasn't needed, although I clammed up afterwards when I realized others hadn't figured it out.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

I didn't realize until I got a PM from CR that the money was sent anonymously also, in case you want to try and make a story of that too. Anyway, clearly CR and Pass are the absolute bottom of my list as wolves.

Yeah, there's irony in that. I didn't know it was JAG who sent it, so I confided in him that that happened. Turns out I was telling the one guy who already knew. I actually even kept that from mauboy1, my spouse. I gave JAG and mauboy1 different sets of information, so that if one of them turned out bad, they wouldn't know everything and might be tripped up down the road.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

When you responded to hoops about how you didn't spend your money, you said you tried bidding $10 for everything. So when the list came out N4 and someone had won a number of services for $5 each and you posted a resounding Yes! after results were announced, it was simple to connect the dots. I outed you as BG because I knew I had the NK that night so it's protection wasn't needed, although I clammed up afterwards when I realized others hadn't figured it out.

Good catch. I figured the $5 bidder was the same person, which was later confirmed to me by Pass in his courier service PM. But I didn't put together his reaction and that to figure out it was him before that. Now your BG reference makes much more sense, and removes a lot of doubt for me regarding your status.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

When you responded to hoops about how you didn't spend your money, you said you tried bidding $10 for everything. So when the list came out N4 and someone had won a number of services for $5 each and you posted a resounding Yes! after results were announced, it was simple to connect the dots. I outed you as BG because I knew I had the NK that night so it's protection wasn't needed, although I clammed up afterwards when I realized others hadn't figured it out.

Okay. I wondered if it was partially because of my post, although I just posted "Nice!!!" because we caught a wolf.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, there's irony in that. I didn't know it was JAG who sent it, so I confided in him that that happened. Turns out I was telling the one guy who already knew. I actually even kept that from mauboy1, my spouse. I gave JAG and mauboy1 different sets of information, so that if one of them turned out bad, they wouldn't know everything and might be tripped up down the road.

Don't bother visiting my grave!

/ghostspeak

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Don't bother visiting my grave!

/ghostspeak

Sorry, mau! I now know for sure you were good. I figured you were, but you weren't cleared yet, especially that early. So I had to cover my bases.

[The Jackal]

Pass, what was your feeling after cougar's responses yesterday? Trying to make some decisions between him and Zinto at this point.

[Zinto]

I am sure that I am probably one of the top if not the top lynch candidate for tonight. So let me remind people of my voting history. I was the second person on Sal a couple times in the voting and one of the days there was not that much heat on him. I also was the second vote on Crimson Fox the day he was lynched.

[Passacaglia]

Cougarfreak was driving me crazy yesterday. It took a long time to get straight answers from him, and it drove me absolutely batty when he told us how much he had, then when I asked him what he had the day before, then he got worried about being a wolf target from revealing too much -- when he had already revealed the stuff that would make him a wolf target!

He was right about the amount of 250 being spent. Like I said, I knew how much tyketime had, so he was the one I really wanted an explanation from, and I called out cougar et al so it didn't look like I was singling tyketime out. So that's all I got. He said he used the escort service on DT, which is convenient -- we know from mckerney that when someone uses that service on you, you get notified. But since he said he used it on DT, we can't verify that. On the other hand, I believe he spent the 250 there, simply because no one else claimed to have -- and it's one of the few unclaimed expenditures around, outside of Knuckles. But Night 2 was a long time ago -- a dead person could have bought it, too.

As for his posts, there's really not enough to give me an indication either way.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Cougarfreak was driving me crazy yesterday. It took a long time to get straight answers from him, and it drove me absolutely batty when he told us how much he had, then when I asked him what he had the day before, then he got worried about being a wolf target from revealing too much -- when he had already revealed the stuff that would make him a wolf target!

He was right about the amount of 250 being spent. Like I said, I knew how much tyketime had, so he was the one I really wanted an explanation from, and I called out cougar et al so it didn't look like I was singling tyketime out. So that's all I got. He said he used the escort service on DT, which is convenient -- we know from mckerney that when someone uses that service on you, you get notified. But since he said he used it on DT, we can't verify that. On the other hand, I believe he spent the 250 there, simply because no one else claimed to have -- and it's one of the few unclaimed expenditures around, outside of Knuckles. But Night 2 was a long time ago -- a dead person could have bought it, too.

As for his posts, there's really not enough to give me an indication either way.

The Jackal, as a follow-up to this, the night cougar won that escort service was the night that you hired the BG and the seer. If he was a baddie, he could have used it to block you from using your services, which would have made it so that you couldn't protect yourself or use the seer. So I'm leaning good a little for him.

Although, at this point, it's been a while, and I think it would be helpful to know how much you won.

[Passacaglia]

Here's what I have for winning bets -- I'm just starting to collect this now, so it probably has a lot of holes:

Day 1: The Jackal, unknown
Day 2: Chief Rum, unknown
Day 3: JAG, unknown
Day 4: unknown, unknown
Day 5: cougarfreak, $1000

[Passacaglia]

Night Kills

Night 1: Danny, unknown
Night 2: Lathum, unknown
Night 3: hoopsguy, $849
Night 4: no one, $0
Night 5: mauboy1, $128
Night 5: saldana, $67

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The Jackal, as a follow-up to this, the night cougar won that escort service was the night that you hired the BG and the seer. If he was a baddie, he could have used it to block you from using your services, which would have made it so that you couldn't protect yourself or use the seer. So I'm leaning good a little for him.

Although, at this point, it's been a while, and I think it would be helpful to know how much you won.

That's good to know, definitely raises him in my confidence. He says he used it on DT that night?

I've been debating throwing out my winning bid from the first night every day. I imagine I'm going to be one of the people getting looked at the most with Zinto, cougar, and NTN, as you, CR, DV, and Jag are pretty high on the ol' trust scale.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That's good to know, definitely raises him in my confidence. He says he used it on DT that night?

I've been debating throwing out my winning bid from the first night every day. I imagine I'm going to be one of the people getting looked at the most with Zinto, cougar, and NTN, as you, CR, DV, and Jag are pretty high on the ol' trust scale.

Actually, I'm not sure that DV belongs there with us. What worries me is that I have no spending info on him. What are your thoughts on him?

[The Jackal]

My winning bet on D1 was 6,379$, so now you can see why I haven't been surprised at the amount of cash being thrown around, and why I threw so much at Tank and Mario that night. I bought Cassie once, Lefty once (I was the one who used him on saldana the first time, had a hunch he might be a wolf), and I bought the last betting parlor, but that turned out to be irrelevant since I bet on Mckerney either way.