Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Actually, I'm not sure that DV belongs there with us. What worries me is that I have no spending info on him. What are your thoughts on him?

Well, unless he is somehow a cunning wolf (and there was no black market service that early), I know Mario scanned him clean, so I 100% trust him. Lynch me over him if we have to come down to that situation, but I feel there are more likely wolf targets than me at this point.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, unless he is somehow a cunning wolf (and there was no black market service that early), I know Mario scanned him clean, so I 100% trust him. Lynch me over him if we have to come down to that situation, but I feel there are more likely wolf targets than me at this point.

Fair enough. I knew that -- just hoping to catch you off-guard!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

My winning bet on D1 was 6,379$, so now you can see why I haven't been surprised at the amount of cash being thrown around, and why I threw so much at Tank and Mario that night. I bought Cassie once, Lefty once (I was the one who used him on saldana the first time, had a hunch he might be a wolf), and I bought the last betting parlor, but that turned out to be irrelevant since I bet on Mckerney either way.

Thanks for the info. Can you explain the part that I bolded? I don't understand it.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thanks for the info. Can you explain the part that I bolded? I don't understand it.

I'm just going to reveal the "super cool secret option", pretty sure it's already been guessed upon. You either get the list of everyone's bets, like CR did the first time, or you can have your bet automatically switched to the lynch victim for the next day. I chose the latter, but bet on mckerney (just for fun really, I didn't actually need to bet). So either way I was going to get those winnings, is all I meant.

[The Jackal]

In hindsight I wish I'd picked the first option for a little more info for us, but mckerney hadn't been revealed as a wolf yet and saldana was just as good a lynch candidate, so I wanted to make sure I got some money out of it.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

My winning bet on D1 was 6,379$, so now you can see why I haven't been surprised at the amount of cash being thrown around, and why I threw so much at Tank and Mario that night. I bought Cassie once, Lefty once (I was the one who used him on saldana the first time, had a hunch he might be a wolf), and I bought the last betting parlor, but that turned out to be irrelevant since I bet on Mckerney either way.

Interesting. I got a lot less on Day Two, but I think there was another winner, too, someone who had PF with me. It's in mauboy1's list, wherever that is.

I won $4212.

[The Jackal]

Also, since it seems likely we have one member of each wolf family left, we can kind of throw out the Mario connections as being two wolves, since presumably the families did not know each other before the game, and they wouldn't want to clear each other as villagers anyways. So in my mind there is no chance CR or DV are wolves. You can't guarantee that me, JAG, or NTN aren't wolves, but that seems to be an argument for at least one day later.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Interesting. I got a lot less on Day Two, but I think there was another winner, too, someone who had PF with me. It's in mauboy1's list, wherever that is.

I won $4212.

I have no idea how the percentages work, or even if the pool of money you can win is the same every night. For winning my bet on mckerney I got $1,561, so quite a few must have bet on him to share the money.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Interesting. I got a lot less on Day Two, but I think there was another winner, too, someone who had PF with me. It's in mauboy1's list, wherever that is.

I won $4212.

It makes sense to me that the pot is smaller as we go on -- for one, it's harder to guess early in the game, and for another, there's more people "betting" early in the game.

I don't even remember mauboy posting a list for sure. Maybe he just PMed it to you? He might have posted one, but I'm not sure I feel like finding it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm just going to reveal the "super cool secret option", pretty sure it's already been guessed upon. You either get the list of everyone's bets, like CR did the first time, or you can have your bet automatically switched to the lynch victim for the next day. I chose the latter, but bet on mckerney (just for fun really, I didn't actually need to bet). So either way I was going to get those winnings, is all I meant.

Interesting, I had no idea. But it makes sense now, thanks.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I have no idea how the percentages work, or even if the pool of money you can win is the same every night. For winning my bet on mckerney I got $1,561, so quite a few must have bet on him to share the money.

I also bet on mckerney, so I got $1561 as well there.

Plus, I had the betting parlor after Day Four, and won some cash there, with the "ultra cool secret" option. I forget how much it was. I can look it up.

[Passacaglia]

Wait, so you guys won 1561 from betting on mckerney? But cougarfreak said he has 1750 after betting on mckerney. I figured he started at 1000, spent 250, then won 1000 to get up to 1750. But if he won 1561, I think he has more explaining to do.
VOTE COUGARFREAK

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

It makes sense to me that the pot is smaller as we go on -- for one, it's harder to guess early in the game, and for another, there's more people "betting" early in the game.

I don't even remember mauboy posting a list for sure. Maybe he just PMed it to you? He might have posted one, but I'm not sure I feel like finding it.

It's definitely out there. He actually lied about my bid on his list, as he had already sent me a courier PM and was figuring/hoping I was a good guy. If he hadn't, you all would have come at me early on about having a PF bid on Day Two. Since he did that, I was able to hold out revealing a little longer and stay ahead of the wolves.

It would have been sometime on Day Three. I don't feel like finding it either.

[Passacaglia]

Oh yeah, pretty sure we know that ntn won the bet on PF also.

[Passacaglia]

cuz he spent 1551 each on the BG and seer the next night.

[Chief Rum]

I checked my PMs and reconfirmed that I won 1561, same amount as The jackal, so if cougarfreak said otherwise, that is definitely curious.

I won $2512 for Day Four, per my PM.

cougarfreak was at the top of my "check him out" list today, so I was a bit thrown by you guys leaning toward him being good.

[tyketime]

I'm out at lunch now, so posting this by phone. But I can also confirm $1,561 for mckerney.

I told you... numbers are exact

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh yeah, pretty sure we know that ntn won the bet on PF also.

I forgot if he won with me or if he won a day later, but I knew ntn won at some point. It was because of that win that I thought he had sent me the cash, and not JAG.

[Passacaglia]

Oh duh, and on my spreadsheet right next to his name it says "won bet on PackerFanatic" --- heh

[The Jackal]

The bit about cougar winning the escort and not using it against me when I had pretty clearly won Tank and Mario had me leaning towards good, but we can't assume what his motives would be. Let's hear what he has to say on the money.

I'm going to repost JAG's vote counts in a moment, excluding yesterday's since there's little to be gained from it.

[Passacaglia]

Let's try these bets again:

Day 1: The Jackal, 6379
Day 2: ntndeacon, Chief Rum, 4212 each
Day 3: JAG
Day 4: unknown
Day 5: Chief Rum, The Jackal, tyketime, cougarfreak, 1561 each

[The Jackal]

Green = known villager (including DV and CR here as I can't see a way either is a wolf unless there is more than one wolf left in a family.)
Yellow = Pass, only because he could have used a black market cunning last night
Red = wolf

Final Day 1:

J23 (8) Jackal 117, DaddyTorgo 178, Zinto 196, Danny 224 , mauboy1 230, Lathum 234, PackerFan 236, saldana 257
Lathum (5) Pass 118, mckerney 151, Tyketime 160, cougarfreak 191, Crimson Fox 217
Darth vilus (5) JAG 185, ntndeacon 197, hoopsguy 206, J23 209, Chief 211

No Vote: Darth Vilus

Final Day 2:

Darth Vilus (6) - Packerfanatic 299, The Jackal 369, tyketime 389, saldana 409, chief rum 452, passacaglia 511
jackal (1) - crimson fox 365
Packerfanatic (3) - mckerney 418, mauboy1 463, zinto 483
Lathum (2) - cougarfreak 419, daddy torgo 465
Daddy Torgo (5) - Lathum 492, ntndeacon 495, hoopsguy 499, darth vilus 504, JAG 508

Final Day 3:

mckerney (3) - Darth Vilus 704, tyketime 776, crimson fox 795
crimson fox (7) - The jackal 678, zinto 726, chief rum 770, JAG 781, mckerney 790, mauboy1 799, passacaglia 805
hoopsguy (2) - saldana 708, cougarfreak 753
daddy torgo (2) - hoopsguy 710, ntndeacon 767
JAG (1) - DaddyTorgo 782

Final Day 4:

Daddy Torgo (8) - ntndeacon 866, mckerney 929, cougarfreak 936, saldana 980, chief rum 990, JAG 1011, zinto 1018, passacaglia 1025
mckerney (5) - darth vilus 931, the jackal 937, mauboy1 939, tyketime 983, daddy torgo 996

[Chief Rum]

My 2512 win is from Day Four. I had the betting parlor.

I am willing to bet that whoever won the betting parlor yesterday is also the last Lupino wolf who offed saldana. By taking out an enemy wolf and the likely target for everyone today, he ensures that his betting parlor bet will likely be the only winner, and he'll get a healthy injection of cash tonight.

[Passacaglia]

cool i get my own color

[The Jackal]

I should repost with different colors for each wolf family, but maybe later, or on the next page or something. Long post.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

My 2512 win is from Day Four. I had the betting parlor.

I am willing to bet that whoever won the betting parlor yesterday is also the last Lupino wolf who offed saldana. By taking out an enemy wolf and the likely target for everyone today, he ensures that his betting parlor bet will likely be the only winner, and he'll get a healthy injection of cash tonight.

That makes a lot of sense, re: why saldana was killed last night, aside from evening up family numbers. Someone is gonna get a ton of money, hopefully we can lynch that person and avoid it!

[The Jackal]

Cougar has voted with at least one wolf everyday. The last day doesn't really matter, as both candidates were wolves, but still. Interesting tidbit.

[JAG]

Jackal, you can't use both sets of wolves as the same color.

[The Jackal]

Day 3 looks bad for cougar, at the time he voted for hoops, Crimson had 2 votes, mckerney had 1, and DT had 1.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

My 2512 win is from Day Four. I had the betting parlor.

I am willing to bet that whoever won the betting parlor yesterday is also the last Lupino wolf who offed saldana. By taking out an enemy wolf and the likely target for everyone today, he ensures that his betting parlor bet will likely be the only winner, and he'll get a healthy injection of cash tonight.

Ah, that's clever.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

Jackal, you can't use both sets of wolves as the same color.

I know, but I can't edit! I realized it afterwards. You want to repost? Can do it on the next page near the top since this one is probably getting down there. For now we know that DT/CF were on the same team, and saldana and mckerney were on the same team. Good way to make everyone remember that, too.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Yellow = Pass, only because he could have used a black market cunning last night

Funny, I thought it was orange, because hoopsguy said I had $1000 exactly, so I haven't spent any money on bad dudes like Knuckles. You know, hoops, basketball, orange? Eh. Everyone keeps forgetting about hoospguy checking me out.

[The Jackal]

That's true, another bit of info that boosts your trust level. And it does look orange, whatever, people get the point.

[JAG]

Here's my two cents on things:


CR - scanned good

Pass - scanned good by a scanned good target

DV - Argument as villager: 100% trusted if Jackal is confirmed as villager, voted wolves from two different families 3 days in a row (though one was admittedly self-defense). *Sent escort to a now known wolf (though he could be in the other family) --- argument as wolf: If you think there are 3 wolves to a side, you would have to believe Jackal is a member of the opposite family who gave incorrect information as to DV's alligence to confuse the village, at rather grave danger to his own family. *

Jackal - Argument as villager: "Cleared" DV to give clarity to D1+2, spent a lot more on the BG than would be expected N2 if he were a wolf, has been pretty open with his expenditures, led a couple of charges against wolves in two families (or at least participated early depending on your feelings on his voting with mckerny). --- Argument as wolf: You'd have to believe his family was willing to sacrifice a sizeable chunk of his money and a teammate to make himself look good. *Since I respect him as a wolf, it's not beyond the realm of possibility, but I'm not feeling too worried.

Tyke - Argument as villager: Claims a role, of which we already know there were some in the game. *Was accurate with his cash on hand and it was a somewhat unusual amount (exactly 500?) for a wolf to have at that stage. *I could see him wanting to hold back a bit with a role like this. *Voted mckerny D3 + D4. *Argument as wolf: 1 of 2 uncleared D1 Lathum voters and a bettor as well. *UTR. *And you'd have to believe he either made up the role or is a wolf with the role.

Zinto - Argument as villager: Supposedly true with his finances though this hasn't been confirmed. *Was open with his betting targets D2 and D3 before the village confirmed the NK role allowed the killer to win the victim's money. *Votes on wolves D3+4. *Argument as wolf: The D3+D4 wolf votes were in the same family so he could reasonably be in the other. *Started pulling up voting records at a time that made me wonder why he started doing it now (was he prompted by a teammate?). *UTR.

ntn - Argument as villager: *Cleared mauboy1 (a confirmed villager). *Was open with his expenditures earlier. *Was voted by a known wolf yesterday before the wolf was outed. *Argument as wolf: *Cleared a villager to gain trust. *Has been UTR of late. *Is the only unknown on DV D1 and DT D2, which means there'd be all villagers on those two targets if true, in case you feel like the wolves for sure spread out both days. *The thing with mckerny was to draw attention from ntn since it was likely mckerny was going down.

cougarfreak - Argument as villager: Newbie who has been quiet and unsure what to do / who to trust. *Revealed he won a bet yesterday and his financial info can't be disputed. *Possibly refused to send escort vs. a person who was obviously going to do a scan (though does the BG protect vs. that?) *Argument as wolf: D1 Lathum voter who did not bet him (only other who did that was DT, a known wolf). *Voted for villagers three days in a row, voted with saldana D3 and D4 in a way that would make sense if they were on the same team. *I kind of get a saldana-like vibe from him of him making some accusations (to Lathum D2, hoops D3, Pass yesterday) that don't have merit and hasn't participated in clearing villagers or catching wolves other than when there was no choice.

[The Jackal]

Excellent thoughts there JAG - in response to the question about Tank, as far as I know he could just prevent a kill or a theft (presumably Lefty), but I don't know what would happen if Cassie was sent along.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I checked my PMs and reconfirmed that I won 1561, same amount as The jackal, so if cougarfreak said otherwise, that is definitely curious.

I won $2512 for Day Four, per my PM.

cougarfreak was at the top of my "check him out" list today, so I was a bit thrown by you guys leaning toward him being good.

I will confirm that 2512 is what day four folks got for a win. In terms of my expenditures for the day I bid on 4 services and won two of them...(Missing out on Tank and Mario) I won the betting parlor and took the now not so secret option, and with Cassie I used that on Saldana. I wanted to make sure that the one person we had strong evidence as being a wolve was grounded for the night.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I will confirm that 2512 is what day four folks got for a win. In terms of my expenditures for the day I bid on 4 services and won two of them...(Missing out on Tank and Mario) I won the betting parlor and took the now not so secret option, and with Cassie I used that on Saldana. I wanted to make sure that the one person we had strong evidence as being a wolve was grounded for the night.

Thanks ntn, that helps. Now the only missing bids are:

Tank Night 1 -- 1000
Knuckles Night 1 -- 1150
Knuckles Night 2 -- 1501
24 Hour Night 2 -- 50
Knuckles Night 3 -- 1000
Cassie Night 5 (last night) -- 800

[Passacaglia]

ntn, what did you bid on Tank that night?

[Passacaglia]

Oh, I'm also missing Lefty from Night 2 -- 1000

[Passacaglia]

Sorry, and City Hall, Night 3 -- 251

[tyketime]

Do we have a complete reveal for who made what lynch bet on any other day than the first? I would LOVE to take a crack at figuring out the amounts. I just need another data point...

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Do we have a complete reveal for who made what lynch bet on any other day than the first? I would LOVE to take a crack at figuring out the amounts. I just need another data point...

I think the only list is the on that mau put out, that neither CR nor I felt like looking for.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think the only list is the on that mau put out, that neither CR nor I felt like looking for.

OK - I'll do a search.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh, I'm also missing Lefty from Night 2 -- 1000

That was me, when I robbed saldana. Ended up being a loss money-wise, but took some money from the wolves' pool, so that was good.

[ntndeacon]

301 on tank. I also got Janet as well

[ntndeacon]

janet ended up being getting 20% of everything that the winning bids were.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That was me, when I robbed saldana. Ended up being a loss money-wise, but took some money from the wolves' pool, so that was good.

Whoops, yeah, I already had you there. I must have been looking at the blank just about it for 24 hour, which no one bid on.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

301 on tank. I also got Janet as well

I thought you were talking about night 4, since you said you won 2 of your 4 bids, and missed out on Tank and Mario. But that was the night I won Tank for $5.

[Passacaglia]

Oh never mind, I've got it figured out now. I had The Jackal winning the betting parlor on Night 5, and ntn winning it on night 4, but it was the other way around.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by tyketime

OK - I'll do a search.

Got it

Since its apparent no one else is going admit their bets. Here are the results.

PackerFan bet on Darth Vilus
JAG bet on Chief Rum
DaddyTorgo had no bet
Saldana bet on Darth Vilus
The Jackal bet on Darth Vilus
Zinto bet on Saldana
Crimson Fox bet on Darth Vilus
Darth Vilus bet on Jackal
Chief Rum bet on Darth Vilus
Mauboy1 bet on Darth Vilus
Passacaglia bet on Lathum
Lathum no bet
Tyketimebet on Darth Vilus
Mckerney no bet
Hoopsguy no bet
cougarfreakbet on Lathum
Ntndeacon bet on packer fanatic

Now let me review it.