Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[Passacaglia]

So I think we still don't know who won Cassie Night 4.

[ntndeacon]

I was talking about night 4 on tank, but Janet was only offered the once

[ntndeacon]

I won cassie last night

[Darth Vilus]

I have to get going to work guys, sorry i won't be around to discuss this more. For the record I won the check cashing for $50 (i really didnt know what it did) and won the escort for $800. I also won some monney for McKerney

Vote Zinto

I think he was a Lathum voter and I don't really buy the wedding chapel thing

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I was talking about night 4 on tank, but Janet was only offered the once

Then I don't know why you didn't win it.

[Darth Vilus]

Good luck guys and I hope we can keep the ball rollin.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

I have to get going to work guys, sorry i won't be around to discuss this more. For the record I won the check cashing for $50 (i really didnt know what it did) and won the escort for $800. I also won some monney for McKerney

Vote Zinto

I think he was a Lathum voter and I don't really buy the wedding chapel thing

While I think that's a good vote and that he's my #2 candidate as a wolf, I think that as a wolf, his story is more likely to be true. It makes a little send that as a newbie villager, he doesn't want a possible wolf messing with his head, but as a newbie wolf, he doesn't want a possible villager finding him out.

[ntndeacon]

night 4 is last night right. Last night is the tank bid. I think i have completely confused myself. So let me say this again...
Last night I bid on Tank, Mario, betting paror, and Cassie...winning the last 2. I bid 300 on Tank and a larger amouunt on Mario.

On a non related note, I also was the winner of Janet Williams services on a different day. (she has only been offered once Ibelieve)

[ntndeacon]

oh and

Vote Cougarfreak

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

night 4 is last night right.

Last Night was Night 5

[The Jackal]

last night was night 5, NTN

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 1361

cougarfreak (2) - passacaglia 1312, ntndeacon 1359
Zinto (1) - Darth Vilus 1354

[ntndeacon]

I got no bids in on night 4 as I was out til after the deadline and had forgotten to put in a bid earlier in the day.

[JAG]

Vote cougarfreak

Barring further analysis or a point I overlooked, I think the argument against him is stronger than the others. If he turns up wolf, which side he's on would influence my thoughts on Zinto also.

[Zinto]

Ok since it seems everyone is revealing bet and bid winnings I will say that I only won the wedding chapel and have not won any of my bets. My bet on Lathum the first day was because he told us to bet on him so I assumed he would have a higher percentage to be lynched compared to another player and this made a target on my back which in turn made me not want to use the wedding chapel as I feared being led around by another player would eventually lead to my death.

[Zinto]

If that makes sense I am just trying to give everyone an idea what went through my head when I won the chapel.

Vote cougarfreak

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Autumn

You may bid on the following services on Day 6:

Tank Wallace, Professional Bodyguard - hire Tank for protection
Mario Juarez, Private Investigator - Mario will get the dirt on anyone you want
Speedeez Courier Service - you need to send a message, Speedeez will get it there

Black Market Services -

"Crazy Legs" Louie - Maybe he's not as professional as Knuckles was, but he'll do any hit
Lefty Fingers, Acquisitions - Lefty's trying to keep a lower profile but he'll still do a job or two with the right encouragement

Bumped to the current page.

[The Jackal]

Well, I was waiting for cougar to get in the thread and answer about the mckerney bet discrepancy, but looks like we're pretty sure on it, so,

VOTE COUGARFREAK

[tyketime]

Cougar & Zinto were the next two I was looking at. But seems like we've found some evidence that Cougar hasn't come in to dispute. I'm willing to go ahead and make my vote as well:

VOTE COUGARFREAK

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Got it



Now let me review it.

I also had the Day One list somewhere on Day Two, if you want to look for that. Keep in mind, on mau's list, I am not listed with PF because he changed that (in a good bit of inspiration on his part). But my vote was on PF--I set it up that way to go with my duking to PF that day.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I also had the Day One list somewhere on Day Two, if you want to look for that. Keep in mind, on mau's list, I am not listed with PF because he changed that (in a good bit of inspiration on his part). But my vote was on PF--I set it up that way to go with my duking to PF that day.

Yeah, I've taken that switch into consideration. I wish we could confirm any other mckerney bettors from yesterday. How many have we counted so far - four?

[Chief Rum]

So, ntn, you have the betting parlor today? Any comment on my theory regarding the betting parlor winner and the last Lupino wolf?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Yeah, I've taken that switch into consideration. I wish we could confirm any other mckerney bettors from yesterday. How many have we counted so far - four?

I think it's four. mckerney was likely to have a lot of bettors. He and saldana were clearly being looked at going into the night before. I would expect most of the bets to have been split between them.

[Chief Rum]

One thing I don't get, especially with two wolf teams. There have been hints all game as to who has money: me, The Jackal, ntndeacon, etc.

Why didn't either wolf team take a crack at us? I have tried to dissuade attacks by being careful about admitting what money I had until I spent it all (and after a second straight night of spending over $3000, I am finally back with the paupers, I believe), so maybe that worked, but I can't explain the lack of targeting on some others.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

So, ntn, you have the betting parlor today? Any comment on my theory regarding the betting parlor winner and the last Lupino wolf?

Wait, he won it for today, meaning he had the winning bid last night? Because here I figured a wolf won the betting parlor because the winning bid for it was the same amount as the two black market bids. Or else that would be a stunning coincidence.

[The Jackal]

The only thing I can figure with me is that I clearly spent a large chunk of my money N2 on Tank and Mario, and I was in no way "cleared" for scanning someone. JAG had a lot of money too, but it was pretty clear he bought the BG the first night and the NK the second night. First they were aiming more for experienced players, then for cleared players?

[The Jackal]

I don't have warm, fuzzy feelings about NTN at this point. It seems more likely Zinto would be lynched before him, but is that the right move? Maybe Mario will help clear that up tonight.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The only thing I can figure with me is that I clearly spent a large chunk of my money N2 on Tank and Mario, and I was in no way "cleared" for scanning someone. JAG had a lot of money too, but it was pretty clear he bought the BG the first night and the NK the second night. First they were aiming more for experienced players, then for cleared players?

Actually I never bought the BG which is why I didn't know if it could stop Cassie. They could have made a bundle on me that night.

[JAG]

Unvote cougarfreak
Vote ntn

Appreciate you being open and honest, but those equal winning bids are too much of a coincidence for me.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

Actually I never bought the BG which is why I didn't know if it could stop Cassie. They could have made a bundle on me that night.

How much was spent on it that night, wasn't it like 1800+? I'll go check.

[The Jackal]

That was N3 right JAG?

The going rates for services on Day 3:

Tank Wallace, Professional Bodyguard - $1,551
Mario Juarez, Private Investigator - $1,551

[The Jackal]

Whoops didn't quote that correctly, sorry Autumn.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, that was N3.

[The Jackal]

Bizarre that JAG and someone else would spend the exact same amount on Tank and Mario.

[The Jackal]

dola

not trying to say it makes JAG look suspicious, just curious

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Bizarre that JAG and someone else would spend the exact same amount on Tank and Mario.

NTN won both of those.

[Passacaglia]

The Jackal, I'm not sure what you're trying to show, but I don't think JAG has won either Tank or Mario.

[Passacaglia]

Er, except for Night 1.

[The Jackal]

Oh, I've confused myself. Nevermind. I thought JAG won mario that night, not ntn. JAG cleared CR much earlier.

[The Jackal]

So JAG used most of his winnings on Knuckles, I'm not sure why I thought he had purchased Tank and/or Mario before that. So much info in this game!

[The Jackal]

The fact that ntn bid the same earlier on Tank/Mario supports what JAG just said up there too, the correlation of the same bids on the black market service. 1001 isn't the strangest of numbers, but it is questionable.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 1391

cougarfreak (6) - passacaglia 1312, ntndeacon 1359, Zinto 1366, The Jackal 1368, tyketime 1369
Zinto (1) - Darth Vilus 1354
ntndeacon (1) - JAG 1379

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Whoops didn't quote that correctly, sorry Autumn.

20 lashes

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The fact that ntn bid the same earlier on Tank/Mario supports what JAG just said up there too, the correlation of the same bids on the black market service. 1001 isn't the strangest of numbers, but it is questionable.

Excellent point and makes me feel even better about this.


Something else I considered for the bidding today. *Assuming the people who win BG and seer are not the same tonight, is there merit in a public reveal of who won each service so the BG protects the seer and guarantees a scan for the next day? *On the plus side, we guarantee getting a scan tomorrow as there is no escort service tonight and add to our trust list (or better yet, find a wolf) because there's no weird wolf-only services tonight. *It also makes it easier for the village to outbid the wolves since we can put our money towards one instead of two options (trying to get both bg and seer) *On the minus side, we give the wolves a free pass to miss the BG using the thief and NK and their odds of hitting the seer arent all that favorable. *I think it might be worthwhile, but I can understand if people are uncomfortable with it and don't like it.

[Autumn]

I'm heading out and won't be back until shortly before deadline so I won't be able to field questions or such until then.

[Chief Rum]

I am heading off from work in a sec, and it may be a busy afternoon. So I better get a vote in now.

I would prefer we have a two man race so we can get voting points to consider, but I can't argue with the logic that cougar might be a wolf. I will go with cougar for now, in case I don't get back before deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Oh yeah...

VOTE COUGARFREAK

[The Jackal]

I'll leave some room for a little two-man action:

UNVOTE COUGARFREAK
VOTE NTN

[The Jackal]

I'm leaving in an hour or so and will probably be out past deadline, but I'll see where things are at before I'm gone. I'm honestly fine if cougar bites it here without any movement. I don't know how much we'll get considering the wolves left are on opposite sides.

[JAG]

It would only matter if there were more than two wolves left. Even then, I'd be more inclined to give weight to earlier votes.

And yeah, a lynch of either is fine by me