2009 College Football World Cup - COMPLETE!

[molson]

In an effort to warm up for the resumption of my WCCW TEW dynasty, I'm going to blatantly rip off EagleFan's Super Bowl Era World Cup Dynasty.

This will be a fast-moving, obnoxious, 120-team tournament, via whatifsports.com, to determine the World Cup Champion of the 2009 College Football Season. Every Div I-A team is involved.

All games will be played at a neutral site. Each game will be played in 40 degree weather with medium wind and no rain (good football weather).

I'm going to move through this quickly, not posting anything about individual or player stats unless something really catches my eye. I'll give a quick rundown of the scoring, especially in close games.

The tournament has three stages. The design is intended to give the elite teams an easier early path, but also throw enough chaos and randomness in to where a mediocre team could surprise and make a run if they get the right draw.

Here's the format:

I GROUP STAGE:

-20 Groups of 6 teams each
-Each team plays the other 5 teams in its group once
-Top 3 teams of each group, and 4 wild cards, advance to the next round of 64
-Only 25 of the 120 teams are actually seeded. I'm using the final AP top 25 poll of the 2009 season. The top 20 teams will be placed one per group across the 20 groups.
-Teams ranked 21-25 will each randomly join one of the 20 groups (so there's a max of 2 seeded teams per group)
-All other placement is a free-for-all, using a random number generator. So luck of the draw is very important.
-In the interest of organization, I'll sim all the games of one group before I go onto the next one, rather then attempt to have everything going on at the same time.

II: PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The 64 teams that get through the group stage are ranked 1-64. (All first place teams ranked first, then second place teams, then third place teams, then the 4 wild cards).
-#1 plays #64, #2 plays #63, #3 plays #62, etc.
-32 winners advance to the final knock-round

III: CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The final 32 teams will be seeded randomly here into a fixed, single elimination bracket. So if a so-so team manages to get through the group stage, and can pull an upset in the preliminary knock-out stage, they have a chance to get a decent path to go deep here.

My rooting interests are the three schools I have a connection to: Syracuse, Oregon, Boise St, which hopefully keeps things somewhat interesting for me.

With that, here's a quick look at the groups, with 2009 conference, conference W/L record, and overall W/L record.

[molson]

GROUP A

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
#23 C. Michigan (Mid-American, 8-0, 12-2)
Houston (Conference USA, 6-2, 10-4)
Michigan (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)
Tulane (Conference USA, 1-7, 3-9)
UCLA (PAC-10, 3-6, 7-6)

Should be utter domination for Alabama, and a tough draw for everyone that has to deal with 2 seeded teams. Houston/UCLA looks like a battle for #3, or can Michigan find some redemption?

[molson]

GROUP B

#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1)
#25 West Virginia (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)
Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Idaho (WAC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kentucky (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)
UTEP (Conference USA, 3-5, 4-8)

This is probably the "group of death". Texas and West Virginia would seem to be the locks to move on, and Arkansas, Idaho, and Kentucky are all teams that would certainly consider themselves in the top 64 of college football - but two of them likely won't advance. Even UTEP is much tougher opposition then many of the dregs of this tournament - they could make things difficult and pull an upset or two here.

[molson]

GROUP C

#3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)
Arizona (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Auburn (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Colorado (Big 12, 2-6, 3-9)
Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5)
Temple (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4)

It will be interesting to see how Temple will fare against some of the mid-level BCS schools. And by the way, it looks the whatifsports sim will use the team that actually played most of the games in the 2009 season - so Sam Bradford is on the bench. Still, this is a very tough group. It's hard to pick 2 to advance after Florida.

[molson]

GROUP D

#4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0)
#22 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4)
LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 4-4, 6-6)
Miami, OH (Mid-American, 1-7, 1-11)
Navy (Independent, 10-4)
Southern Miss (Conference USA, 5-3, 7-6)

Every team in this weak group has to be thrilled. The 2 seeded teams should run the table, and face off against each other for #1 ranking in the group. The other 4 schools would have zero chance in many other groups but here - they have a chance to crack the top 3 and advance. Navy, in particular, looks like the luckiest team yet in the draw. Not only could they get the #3 ranking in this group, but they could sweep the other 3 non-seeded teams and end up with a decent overall ranking, and winnable matchup, in the round of 64.

[molson]

GROUP E

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
Kent St. (Mid-American, 4-4, 5-7)
Mississippi St. (SEC, 3-5, 5-7)
Toledo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
Virginia (ACC, 2-6, 3-9)

Three Ohio schools make up half of the weakest group yet. After Ohio St, advancement is up for grabs. Virginia gets a seriously lucky draw here. I suppose the Cavailers and Central Florida would have to be the favorites to advance along with Ohio St.

[molson]

GROUP F

# 6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)
Hawaii (WAC, 3-5, 6-7)
Indiana (Big 10, 1-7, 4-8)
Louisiana Tech (WAC, 3-5, 5-8)
Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)
Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 8-5)

Things pick up a bit here. Two bottom feeder Big-10 schools should make for some competitive matchups with the likes of Nevada and Hawaii. TCU also looks like a semi-vulnerable seeded team, at least compared to those thus far. They should have plenty to advance, but it's hard to see then sweeping the group.

[molson]

GROUP G

#7 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2)
LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)
Memphis (Conference USA, 1-7, 2-10)
Northern Illinois (Mid-American, 5-3, 7-6)
Stanford (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Texas A&M (Big 12, 3-5, 6-7)

Brutal draw for Northern Illinois and LA-Monroe. They might have had a chance with a weaker draw, but here they have to deal with 3 pretty solid BCS schools.

[molson]

GROUP H

# 8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)
Army (Independent, 5-7)
Connecticut (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)
Southern Methodist (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
UNLV (MWC, 3-5, 5-7)

Good depth in this group, there doesn't appear to be any guaranteed wins, even for Cincinnati. They should win enough to advance, but really wide open after that. Opportunity abounds.

[molson]

GROUP I

# 9 Penn St. (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2)
San Diego St. (MWC, 2-6, 4-8)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 0-8, 0-12)
Washington (PAC-10, 4-5, 5-7)
Wake Forest (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Wyoming (MWC, 4-4, 7-6)

When I did the random draw for this, going through the teams in alphabetical order, this group took forever to fill up, so there's 4 "W" teams. And it should be a dog-fight between Washington, Wake, and Wyoming for the final 2 automatic spots after Penn State. Western Kentucky is the worst team in this tournament, and it's hard to see them getting close to a win here.

[molson]

GROUP J

#10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)
Akron (Mid-American, 2-6, 3-9)
Bowling Green (Mid-American, 6-2, 7-6)
New Mexico (MWC, 1-7, 1-11)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 1-7, 2-10)
Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 7-6)

The new luckiest draw has to belong to the Volunteers, who seem like a lock to advance, and are perhaps one upset win away from a #1 ranking in the group and a winnable matchup in the preliminary knock-out stage. Bowling Green looks pretty good. The bottom 3 here is obviously terrible.

[molson]

GROUP K

#11 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3)
Duke (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Louisville (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
New Mexico St. (WAC, 1-7, 3-10)
Northwestern (Big 10, 5-3, 8-5)
Purdue (Big 10, 4-4, 5-7)

Similar to the last group, this one has a clear big 3 - Oregon, Northwestern, Purdue. Duke will have to pull a couple of upsets to crash that party and advance.

[molson]

GROUP L

#12 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2)
Colorado St. (MWC, 0-8, 3-9)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)
Michigan St. (Big 10, 4-4, 6-7)
Western Michigan (Mid American, 4-4, 5-7)
Washington St. (PAC-10, 0-9, 1-11)

BYU and a lot of crap here. Lucky draw for Michigan St, who should have no problem advancing. It will be interesting to see how the worst BCS team (Washington St), can hold up against some of the mediocre (or worse) small conference schools.

[molson]

GROUP M

#13 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)
Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Maryland (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)
San Jose St. (WAC, 1-7, 2-10)
Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4)
UAB (Conference USA, 4-4, 5-7)

Great draw for Troy. They should finish at least #2 here which will earn them a decently winnable game in the next round. Maryland could actually advance. Georgia Tech should sweep and end up one of the top seeds going into the next round.

[BYU 14]

Love the Cougars draw

[molson]

GROUP N

#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4)
East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 5-3, 5-7)
Rice (Conference USA, 2-6, 2-10)
Syracuse (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 0-8, 2-10)

Another weak group. I'm starting to think that some of the earlier groups were much stronger than they first looked. Because here, Syracuse has a shot. They will be overmatched by Nebraska, and underdogs to East Carolina. But after that, they could run the table. If not them, who advances? Florida Atlantic?

[molson]

GROUP O

#15 Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 10-3)
Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)
Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 7-1, 10-3)
Missouri (Big 12, 4-4, 8-5)
Oregon St. (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Tulsa (Conference USA, 3-5, 5-7)

That's more like it. 5 schools with winning records and poor Tulsa, who would probably be a favorite to advance in other groups but have no chance here. Very tough draw for Pittsburgh, as a seeded team, definitely no lock to advance. There's 4 pretty tough matchups for the Panthers here.

[molson]

GROUP P

#16 Wisconsin (Big 10, 5-3, 10-3)
Arizona St. (PAC-10, 2-7, 4-8)
California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kansas St (Big 12, 4-4, 6-6)
North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5)

New group of death here, brutal. 6 BCS schools, and some very good ones. Arizona St. is the worst on paper but they might be the best "worst team" in any group. Wisconsin definitely gets the shaft, but they'll still be favored in every game, and really only need to win 3 of 5 to assure advancement.

[molson]

GROUP Q

#17 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)
#24 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5)
Fresno St. (WAC, 6-2, 8-5)
Illinois (Big 10, 2-6, 3-9)
Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)
Rutgers (Big East, 3-4, 9-4)

Another very difficult group - perhaps even tougher than group P. Gotta feel bad for Rutgers who might finish no higher than 5th here. Their matchups with Fresno St. and Ohio will be huge.

[molson]

GROUP R

#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3)
# 21 Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-3, 9-4)
Arkansas St. (Sun Belt, 3-5, 5-8)
Ball St. (Mid American, 2-6, 2-10)
Florida St (ACC, 4-6, 7-8)
South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)

It will likely come down to the Florida St/South Carolina matchup for the third spot, assuming Utah and Texas Tech can take care of business. Arkansas St. and Ball St get a tough draw.

[molson]

GROUP S

#19 Miami, FL (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)
Baylor (Big 12, 1-7, 4-8)
Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5)
Iowa St (Big 12, 3-5, 7-6)
Marshall (Conference USA, 4-4, 7-6)
Oklahoma St (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4)

Another tough group. There's a clear top three here with Miami, BC, and Oklahoma St, but then you have 3 decent schools luring, with the potential to pull an upset and jump in.

[molson]

GROUP T

#20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)
Eastern Michigan (Mid-American, 0-8, 0-12)
Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 5-7)
Notre Dame (Independent, 6-6)
South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
Utah St. (WAC, 3-5, 4-8)

We wrap things up with a very good draw for Notre Dame. They're perhaps the second best team in a group so bad that Eastern Michigan has a chance to pull off a win at some point.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Love the Cougars draw

That only means they have all the pressure on them!

[Young Drachma]

Interesting tournament, should be cool to see how it all pans out.

[molson]

OK, so I wanted to get through a little of one group to get this thing rolling, so here's Group A. Top 3 advance, small chance of a wild card for 4th place (4 wild cards across 20 groups)

GROUP A

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0)
#23 Central Michigan (Mid-American, 8-0, 12-2)
Houston (Conference USA, 6-2, 10-4)
Michigan (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)
Tulane (Conference USA, 1-7, 3-9)
UCLA (PAC-10, 3-6, 7-6)

-----------------------------------
Week 1:
Alabama 69, Central Michigan 13
Michigan 41, Houston 17
UCLA 39, Tulane 24

Lopsided day 1 scores. The Michigan win is somewhat shocking - they were tied at 17 with Houston before blowing it open in the second half. Tulane likewise hung around for a while with UCLA - the Green Wave led 24-17 at the half, but the Bruins scored 22 unanswered points after that (2 TDs, 2 FGs, and a safety)

Week 2:
Alabama 80, Houston 0
Central Michigan 49, Tulane 10
Michigan 35, UCLA 17

It's almost as if Alabama knows that point differential is a potential tiebreaker, as they lay a serious beating on Houston, who is in big trouble after 2 lopsided losses. 615 yards rushing for the Crimson Tide (and they only threw the ball 11 times). I mean, damn it Cougars, way to show up to my fictional tournament! Central Michigan gets back on track, setting up a key battle with Michigan, who surprises again with a pretty convincing win over the Bruins.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis (first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but point differential is likely to be very important when seeding teams for the second round, where ties exist between teams that haven't played each other).

Alabama 2-0 (+136)
Michigan 2-0 (+41)
UCLA 1-1 (-2)
Central Michigan 1-1 (-17)
Tulane 0-2 (-54)
Houston 0-2 (-104)

[molson]

GROUP A

Week 3:
Alabama 40, Michigan 10
Central Michigan 54, UCLA 30
Houston 59, Tulane 49

'Bama brings Michigan back to reality - though the 30 points is the closest game the Tide has been involved with yet. Alabama didn't have its first lead until the final play of the 1st half, but then rolled. Huge win for Central Michigan, blowing out fellow 1-1 UCLA. Houston gets back some pride in a wild shootout win over Tulane.

Week 4
Alabama 73, Tulane 0
Central Michigan 20, Michigan 16
UCLA 73, Houston 40

Alabama wins by 73, and pitches its second shutout of the tournament - yet I wonder if that score even covered the spread the way those teams have played. The first truly competitive game is the battle of Michigan, where an 8-yard Chippewas passing TD with 1:35 to go put Central Michigan ahead for good. I'm getting the idea that Houston's D is not very good, as they give up 73 more points.

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis

Alabama 4-0 (+239)
Central Michigan 3-1 (+11)
Michigan 2-2 (+7)
UCLA 2-2 (+6)
Houston 1-3 (-127)
Tulane 0-4 (-137)

Week 5 Lineup:
Alabama v. UCLA
Michigan v. Tulane
Central Michigan v. Houston

-Going into the final week of the group play, Alabama has already clinched the #1 ranking in the group. They'll be looking for the clean sweep, and to make that overall point differential even more ridiculous against UCLA. Central Michigan will clinch the #2 spot with a win over Houston, which shouldn't be a problem. If Michigan takes care of business against Tulane, they clinch the #3 spot (since they own the tiebreaker with UCLA). UCLA is obviously in a bad way, having to deal with the seemingly unstoppable Crimson Tide. A loss brings them to 2-3, which probably won't be enough for a wild card spot at 4th place (especially with what their point differential will likely look like after the 'Bama game). Houston can't crack the top 3, and have no chance at a wild card with that point differential. Tulane is obviously done.

[molson]

GROUP A

Week 5:
Alabama 45, UCLA 3
Michigan 34, Tulane 17
Central Michigan 62, Houston 33

Things go pretty much according to plan as Group A wraps up. Houston led Central Michigan early in the 2nd quarter but can't stop anyone on D.

.....

Final Group A Standings, with point differential in parenthesis
#1 Alabama 5-0 (+281)
#2 Central Michigan 4-1 (+40)
#3 Michigan 3-2 (+25)
#4 UCLA 2-3 (-36)
#5 Houston 1-4 (-156)
#6 Tulane 0-5 (-154)

Alabama, Central Michigan, and Michigan advance. UCLA has to wait and see, but things don't look good. Houston and Tulane are done. No surprise in the first 2 spots, as the 2 seeded teams take care of business. Michigan definitely surprised me in grabbing the #3 spot and advancing, as I expected that spot to come down to Houston and UCLA. Houston was a disaster, and UCLA just couldn't get it done in the key game of the group, v. Michigan in week 2.

Alabama has set itself up as the likely #1 seed in the tournament going into the round of 64, that +281 point differential is going to be tough to beat.

These games seemed higher scoring - which works great in this format where point differential matters. And I guess it makes sense, as the sim isn't letting up on the gas as quickly as their real-life counterparts might in a blowout.

[molson]

GROUP B

#2 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1)
#25 West Virginia (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)
Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Idaho (WAC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kentucky (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)
UTEP (Conference USA, 3-5, 4-8)

......

Week 1:
Texas 30, West Virginia 11
Arkansas 52, Idaho 40
Kentucky 61, UTEP 35

Texas may very well sweep this group like Alabama did, but they're not going to come anything close to that point differential. Still, a solid start for them over West Virginia. Arkansas' win over Idaho is huge, considering both teams still have Texas and West Virginia on their schedule. It will be difficult for the Vandals to recover from that. Kentucky takes care of business, and exposes UTEP as the clear bottom of this deep group.

Week 2:
Texas 55, Arkansas 3
Kentucky 30, West Virginia 29
UTEP 55, Idaho 48

Texas is impressive, as they boost up their point differential for the next round's rankings. I expected a little more from the Razorbacks there. And we have our first big upset as Kentucky edges the #25 Mountaineers by 1 point. West Virginia led 13-9 at halftime, and 26-16 entering the final quarter. Halfway through the final quarter, the Wildcats started a drive at midfield and soon scored a 41-yard rushing TD to make it 26-23, West Virginia. After a long drive, West Virginia kicked a 33-yard FG with 2:46 to play to go back up by 6. An excellent Wildcat return on the ensuing kickoff started them off at their own 42 with 2:35 remaining. On a 4th and 10 with :45 left, Hartline hit Cobb for a 19 yard gain down to the Mountaineer 5-yard line. Hartline found Cobb again a few plays later for the game winning TD with :30 left. West Virginia starts the tournament in an 0-2 hole. Disappointing loss also for Idaho, who is as good as done after losses to Arkansas and UTEP. The Vandals led UTEP 45-41 entering the final quarter. UTEP then kicked a couple of field goals to tie it with 7:52 to go in the game. UTEP's next possession resulted in a long TD drive, and Idaho couldn't answer.

....

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Texas 2-0 (+71)
Kentucky 2-0 (+27)
Arkansas 1-1 (-40)
UTEP 1-1 (-19)
Idaho 0-2 (-19)
West Virginia 0-2 (-20)


Tough start for West Virigina, but they're not out if yet. But they might have to run the table against Idaho, UTEP, and Arkansas to avoid the embarrassment of not getting out of the group stage. Certainly do-able.

[molson]

GROUP B

Week 3
Texas 41, Idaho 34
West Virginia 62, UTEP 37
Arkansas 31, Kentucky 28

Idaho just misses a shocking upset after a furious comeback against Texas. The Vandals and the Longhorns entered the 4th quarter all tied up at 20. Texas then scored TDs on their first 3 possessions of the 4th quarter to open up a 41-20 lead. The Vandals responded with two TDs in just over a minute, sandwiched around a Texas fumble, to close the gap to 41-34 with 4:36 to go. They got the ball back, and got all the way to the Texas 5 with :35 to go, but then couldn't convert on a fourth down. So the Vandals almost shake things up in Group B in a major way, but come up just short. West Virginia gets back on track and blows out UTEP. The Razorbacks make things interesting with a close win over Kentucky. A late Wildcat TD make the score appear a bit closer than it could have been.

Week 4
Texas 36, Kentucky 7
West Virginia 51, Idaho 24
Arkansas 65, UTEP 30

Texas recovers from the near-upset against the Vandals, but certainly hasn't put up Alabama-level blowouts here. The Wildcats have really cooled off after that hot start in group play. West Virgina is going in the opposite direction after another convincing win. The Razorbacks complete the week of blowouts.

....

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Texas 4-0 (+107)
Arkansas 3-1 (-2)
West Virginia 2-2 (+32)
Kentucky 2-2 (-5)
UTEP 1-3 (-79)
Idaho 0-4 (-53)
.....

Week 5 Lineup:
Texas v. UTEP
West Virginia v. Arkansas
Idaho v. Kentucky

Texas has already clinched the #1 spot in the group. It's important for them to gain some point differential against UTEP in the final week for optimum seeding next round. Then it gets a little tricky. Arkansas can surprise and nail down the #2 spot if it can upset West Virginia. But if West Virginia wins, and Kentucky takes care of business against Idaho, there would be 3 3-2 teams for two automatic advancement spots. And those three teams - West Virginia, Kentucky, and Arkansas, would all be 1-1 Head-to-head against each other. In which case, the lowest team by point differential would be dropped, and the head-to-head winner of the remaining two spots gets the #2 spot. West Virginia has a big point differential advantage right now - and the other two teams are within a few points. So it could be a crazy finish.

[molson]

GROUP B

Week 5:
Texas 65, UTEP 7
West Virginia 42, Arkansas 29
Idaho 47, Kentucky 30

Texas gets the blowout it wanted to complete the sweep of the group with an impressive point differential (certainly not as good as Alabama's, but probably still good enough for a top 5 seeding in the round of 65, and thus a relatively easy opponent there). Idaho plays the spoiler and shocks Kentucky, in rather convincing fashion. Kentucky couldn't win again in the group after their upset of West Virginia in week 2.

,,,

Final Group B Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 Texas 5-0 (+165)
#2 West Virginia 3-2 (+45)
#3 Arkansas 3-2 (-15)
#4 Kentucky 2-3 (-22)
#5 UTEP 1-4 (-137)
#6 Idaho 1-4 (-36)

Idaho salvages a win on the last day of group play - it doesn't get them out of last place, but it does alter the outcome of group B. With the loss, Kentucky completes the slide to 2-3 and finishes out of the money. West Virginia gets the tiebreaker and the #2 spot by defeating Arkansas the final week. Arkansas nabs the third spot by being steady - they lost to the two ranked teams, but beat everyone else.

Texas, West Virginia, and Arkansas advance. Kentucky has to wait and see at 2-3 and (-22). That does put them ahead of fellow 4th place finisher UCLA, who went 2-3 and (-36). But still, with 4 wild cards in 20 groups, Kentucky's chances look very slim. Later groups, with less dominant top teams, will probably have less ridiculous blowouts, and more favorable point differentials for the 4th place teams.

There were a couple of big upsets in this group but they kind of balanced out, and we got a not unexpected result. Kentucky and Arkansas were kind of a toss-up for the #3 spot, and Arkansas won that showdown in week 3, so they move on. Idaho had an interesting run - not contending for advancement, but very nearly shocking Texas, and upsetting Kentucky the final week to knock the Wildcats out. So far, 3 of the 4 eliminated teams have come from Conference USA.

[molson]

And just to recap on tiebreakers, which are the same whether ranking in the group, or in future stages

-2 Team Tie:
1. Head-to Head (if applicable)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
3. Winning % Of Teams Defeated
4. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
5. Coin Toss

-3+ team tie
(every step seeks to eliminate the bottom team, or bottom tied teams. Then the remaining teams go back to the first step of the tiebreaker procedure)
1. Head-To-Head within tied teams (if they've all played each other)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
3. Winning % Of Teams Defeated
4. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
5. Coin Toss

[molson]

GROUP C

#3 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1)
Arizona (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Auburn (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
Colorado (Big 12, 2-6, 3-9)
Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5)
Temple (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4)
...

Week 1:
Florida 40, Arizona 6
Auburn 41, Colorado 17
Oklahoma 60, Temple 10

That Florida/Arizona game looked high profile, and I thought there was a chance there that we'd have our first top group seed upset, but no - it's 11 Ws in a row for the top seeded teams thus far. Florida still has a tougher path ahead to a sweep of the group, but they get of to a terrific start. But the biggest blowout victim of the week is Temple, who loses by 50 to the Sooners. Temple brings a nice Mid-American record into the tournament, but may be overmatched in this group.

Week 2:
Florida 20, Auburn 14
Oklahoma 48, Arizona 23
Temple 29, Colorado 21

Auburn and Oklahoma emerge as the two clear favorites to lock up the automatic bids after Forida. Arizona, on the other hand, has imploded. Nice win for Temple, who at least keeps things interesting for themselves after the shellacking at the hands of Oklahoma last week. It took a late Colorado TD to make the score respectable there.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Oklahoma 2-0 (+75)
Florida 2-0 (+42)
Auburn 1-1 (+16)
Temple 1-1 (-42)
Colorado 0-2 (-32)
Arizona 0-2 (-59)

The Oklahoma/Forida matchup should decide the #1 ranking in the group, and it won't be easy for the Gators to keep pace with Alabama and Texas. Certainly, it doesn't seem like they can approach the point differential of those teams. Arizona with the terrible start, but like West Virginia,they can get back in it by running the table against Temple, Colorado, and Auburn. That Arizona/Auburn matchup might determine who gets the third and final automatic qualifying spot. Or am I too quick to write off Temple?

[molson]

GROUP C

Week 3
Florida 58, Colorado 3
Temple 38, Arizona 20
Oklahoma 24, Auburn 22

Nice job by Florida to help out their point differential in a 55-point destruction of the Buffalos. Points don't really matter too much, they'll only be used to seed teams for the single round-of-64 game, but they will effect who plays who in that round. However many undefeated teams there after the group stage will be ranked 1-to-whatever by point differential. And if that ends up being 15-16 teams, that's a decent swing between being a dominant undefeated team and a lucky one. Temple shakes things up in a big way with their somewhat surprising win over Arizona. They're right in the thick of things now at 2-1, whereas Arizona is as good as done at 0-3 - they'd be the highest profile elimination yet, by far. Meanwhile, the Sooners roll to 3-0 with a tight win v. Auburn. There was no late-game heroics in that one, the Sooners took the lead for good with a FG with 9:36 remaining the game. The Tigers could never come close to answering.

Week 4
Florida 27, Oklahoma 3
Arizona 56, Colorado 3
Temple 40, Auburn 20

The Sooners/Gators matchup was the most star-studded, high-profile of the gorup, and the way the Sooners have played, it appeared they chance to pull the upset here and win the group. Until 4:21 was left in the 3rd quarter, the game was scoreless, but Florida dominated after that to re-establish itself as the class of Group C. The Sooners are still in very good shape. Arizona finally shows up for the tournament and dismantles Colorado, but it's probably too late for them. And Temple impresses against the big boys again. They went from afterthought to advancement lock, after a stunning and decisive victory against Auburn. The Owls trailed 20-16 midway through the 3rd quarter, but then scored 24 unanswered points to win the game and make things more interesting in the group.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Florida 4-0 (+121)
Oklahoma 3-1 (+53)
Temple 3-1 (-4)
Auburn 1-3 (-6)
Arizona 1-3 (-24)
Colorado 0-4 (-140)
.....

Week 5 Lineup:
Florida v. Temple
Arizona v. Auburn
Colorado v. Oklahoma

Things really cleared up in the last 2 weeks, though not at all in the way I expected them to. The three automatic qualfying spots are all locked up: Florida, Oklahoma, and Temple will advance. Florida controls its own destiny to win the group, and should get by Temple, but the Owls have proven to be no pushover. The Owls still have an outside shot to win the group, but that would require shocking the Gators, and perhaps even more improbably, for Colorado to defeat Oklahoma. (Because if the top 3 teams all finish 4-1, Florida likely wins on tiebreakers, having the best point differential.) Auburn and Arizona still has something to play for, the winner of that game will take spot #4, and probably the current lead in the Wild Card race (as either team would finish 2-3 with a win, and either would end up with a greater point differential than either Kentucky or UCLA). Colorado is obviously done. They'll join the Auburn/Arizona loser as the first two BCS schools officially eliminated from the tournament.

[molson]

GROUP C

Week 5
Temple 9, Florida 3
Auburn 23, Arizona 20
Oklahoma 82, Colorado 0

Group C's craziness has climaxed, as Temple has shocked the #3 Florida Gators in a low-scoring affair. The Gators were held to a lone 2nd quarter FG. Florida outgained the Owls almost 2-to-1, but just couldn't get the ball into the end zone. Florida is the first Top 20 seeded team to go down, after 14 consecutive victories for that group. Elsewhere, Arizona misses a 57-yard FG that would have sent their contest to OT, and falls to Auburn in an elimination contest. Auburn definitely could have used a more convincing win to keep it's slight wild card hopes alive, but they'll take it. The Colorado Buffalos did not have a good tournament. In a tournament of silly blowouts, this is the most ridiculous - an 82 point loss to the Sooners. Colorado rushed 30 times for a total of 3 yards.

...

Final Group C Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 Florida 4-1 (+115)
#2 Oklahoma 4-1 (+135)
#3 Temple 4-1 (+2)
#4 Auburn 2-3 (-3)
#5 Arizona 1-4 (-27)
#6 Colorado 0-5 (-222)

Temple's amazing upset turns out to not mean too much. The Owls, Sooners, and Gators end group play tied at 4-1, and they're all 1-1 within that group of 3 teams. Moving to the next tiebreaker, point differential, eliminates Temple from the 3-way tie. And the Gators then own the head-to-head v. the Sooners, so they win the group. The Sooners earn the #2 spot because they win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Temple. So Temple has to settle for #3, though at 4-1, they'll very likely be the highest ranking third-place team going into the next round. That will earn then a matchup with a low-ranked group winner, or a high-ranked group runner up, as opposed to an elite team.

And the loss doesn't hurt Florida too much, but they do slip from a probable second-stage top #5 seed, to something closer to #15 or so.

Auburn beats Arizona on the last day to earn the #4 spot, and keep its wild card hopes alive. At 2-3 (-3), the Tigers lead both UCLA and Kentucky in the wild card standings. UCLA and Kentucky are thus both pushed one more step towards elimination.

The Arizona Wildcats and the hapless Colorado Buffalos join Houston, Tulane, UTEP, and Idaho in eliminationville.

Up next, Group D, where Boise St. and USC are the class of a group which includes four other non-BCS schools looking to join Central Michigan and Temple in the next round.

[Young Drachma]

So far, the standard bearers are taking care of business.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

So far, the standard bearers are taking care of business.

Indeed. Though I'm encouraged that so far, it seems that upsets are very possible, and the seem to happen with appropriate frequency.

[molson]

GROUP D

#4 Boise St (WAC, 8-0, 14-0)
#22 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4)
LA-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 4-4, 6-6)
Miami, OH (Mid-American, 1-7, 1-11)
Navy (Independent, 10-4)
Southern Miss (Conference USA, 5-3, 7-6)

...

Week 1:

USC 41, Boise St. 38
LA-Lafayette 34, Miami (OH) 27
Navy 17, Southern Mississippi 16

A trio of close games kicks off play in Group D. When this group was set, it seemed like a decent bet that Boise St. and USC would win out, and that the winner of their head-to-head matchup would win the group. That matchup kicked off things here, and it delivered. Now the top 20 seeded teams have lost consecutive games, after winning their first 14. The Broncos appeared to be in control of this game, leading 31-10 after hitting a FG with about 12:30 left in the 3rd Quarter. But the Trojans then scored 3 unanswered TDs over the rest of the quarter to the the game entering the final quarter at 31-31. USC scored another TD, and a FG, in the first 10 minutes of the 4th quarter to go up by 10. Boise St. closed the gap with a TD late, but couldn't get the ball past midfield in its final two possessions. Boise St. is now in serious danger of being the first Top-20 seeded team not to win their group, but they still have to feel good about about their chances running the table against the rest of the competition. Miami of Ohio is one of the worst teams in the tournament, but they played tough against LA-Lafayette, which might not be a good sign for the Rajin' Cajuns. Navy holds on for a low-scoring win.

Week 2:
Boise St. 83, LA-Lafayette 16
USC 28, Navy 25
Southern Mississippi 57, Miami (OH) 0

Boise St shows their fans that they have nothing to worry about, after setting a new tournament single-game scoring mark with 83 point. A crisp 67-point win for them. LA-Lafayette is definitely looking like a pretender. Navy on the other hand, looked very strong in an upset bid against USC that fell just three points short. The teams traded TDs twice in a wild 4th quarter, but then Navy just ran out of time in their final possession. The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles enjoyed racking up the points on the Miami Redhawks

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

USC 2-0 (+6)
Boise St. 1-1 (+64)
Southern Mississippi 1-1 (+56)
Navy 1-1 (-2)
LA-Lafayette 1-1 (-60)
Miami (OH) 0-2 (-64)

The quartet of 1-1 teams in the middle of the pack is a bit misleading, because some of those teams are in far better position than others at this point. Boise St. already has USC out of the way, and still gets to pad its schedule with Miami. Navy too, is in good shape, especially having locked up the head-to-head tiebreaker against Southern Mississippi, the other contender for the #3 spot. LA-Lafayette has been bad, and their win against Miami is likely to be their only one in the group.

[molson]

GROUP D

Week 3:
Boise St. 77, Miami (OH) 0
Navy 38, LA-Lafayette 24
Southern Mississippi 37, USC 21

Boise St. leaves nothing to chance against Miami, and they pull off another dominating victory. They actually top the last game's 67-point margin with a 77-point one here. Navy breaks open a tie game with two TDs in the last 5 minutes and gets a big win vs. fellow 1-1 LA-Lafayette. And then, another shocker - Southern Mississippi takes out USC 37-21. The Golden Eagles opened the scoring with a TD early in the 2nd quarter, and never trailed on their way to the big upset. Three weeks into the group - no undefeated teams remain, and four teams are tied for the group lead at 2-1. Could be a wild finish.

Week 4:
Boise St. 37, Navy 12
USC 72, Miami (OH) 14
Southern Mississippi 53, LA-Lafayette 28

Navy led 12-10 with 10 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, but then it was all Boise St, who cruises to the convincing victory. USC rebounds in predictable fashion against the lowly Redhawks. Southern Mississippi takes care of business.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Boise St. 3-1 (+166)
Southern Mississippi 3-1 (+97)
USC 3-1 (+48)
Navy 2-2 (-13)
LA-Lafayette 1-3 (-99)
Miami (OH) 0-4 (-199)

.....

Week 5 Lineup:
Boise St. v. Southern Mississippi
USC v. LA-Lafayette
Miami (OH) v. Navy

Very interesting group and final week. USC and Boise St. have both showed some vulnerability. The #1 spot in the group is still up for grabs between three teams. Amazingly, Southern Mississippi actually controls their own destiny. If they can pull off the upset v. Boise St, they win the group (because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker against USC). If Boise St wins, USC will win the group if they can win (as a huge favorite) against LA-Lafayette. Boise St, despite their dominance since the week 1 loss to USC, has the toughest path to #1 - they need to win, and have LA-Lafayette shock USC. While the Rajin' Cajuns control their own destiny, they're also in big trouble if they lose, because they would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Navy, who gets to mop the floor in the final week with Miami. Miami and LA-Lafayette are officially eliminated already, neither can even reach #4 at this point. There's a decent chance here we end up with our first 3-win #4 team, who would have a HUGE advantage in locking down one of the 4 wild cards.

[molson]

GROUP D


Week 5:
Boise St. 49, Southern Mississippi 16
USC 31, LA-Lafayette 10
Navy 48, Miami (OH) 22

The Brancos continue their domination and put an end to the Golden Eagles' Cinderella run to the top of the group. That opens the door to USC, who earns the #1 ranking in the group by trouncing LA-Lafayette. Navy takes advantage of the Southern Mississippi loss and picks up the third automatic bid by defeating Miami - though not as spectacularly as others have.

....

Final Group D Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1: USC 4-1 (+69)
#2: Boise St. 4-1 (+199)
#3: Navy 3-2 (+13)
#4: Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
#5: LA-Lafayette 1-4 (-120)
#6: Miami (OH) 0-5 (-225)

USC, Boise St, and Navy advance. Southern Mississippi in in excellent shape for earning one of the four wild cards. Their profile of 3-2, +64 is going to be very difficult to beat four a 4th place team. LA-Lafayette and Miami (OH) are eliminated.

USC wins the group via head-to-head tiebreaker over Boise St. Boise St. can't parlay their #4 overall seeding into a group stage top ranking, but at 4-1, +199, they will probably the top-ranked second place team going into the next round. Navy gets the last automatic spot via head-to-head tiebreaker over Southern Mississippi, thanks to the Midshipmen's 1 point win over the Golden Eagles back on week 1.

Southern Mississippi had a great run, and they'll have to wait and see how the wild card race shakes out, but with 4 of 20 groups completed, they're certainly looking good:

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22)
UCLA 2-3 (-36)

Thus, after the next group stage, UCLA will be officially eliminated if the 4th place team in Group E can beat the Bruins' profile.

Miami of Ohio is the third team to finish winless, and they edge out Colorado for worst point differential as well.

[molson]

To recap after 4 groups:

Advanced:
Alabama
Central Michigan
Michigan
Texas
West Virginia
Arkansas
Florida
Oklahoma
Temple
USC
Boise St.
Navy

Still In Wild Card Contention
UCLA
Kentucky
Auburn
Southern Mississippi

Eliminated
Tulane
Houston
UTEP
Idaho
Arizona
Colorado
LA-Lafayette
Miami (OH)

Next up is perhaps the weakest group in the tournament, Group E. #5 Ohio St. will look for a clean sweep and ridiculous point differential against 5 mediocre opponents, who will battle for the two other automatic spots.

[molson]

GROUP E

#5 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2)
Kent St. (Mid-American, 4-4, 5-7)
Mississippi St. (SEC, 3-5, 5-7)
Toledo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
Virginia (ACC, 2-6, 3-9)

Week 1:
Ohio St. 41, Kent St. 7
Mississippi St. 41, Toledo 23
Central Florida 40, Virginia 0

Ohio St. kicks off group play with a convincing win over Kent St. Alabama and Texas have set the bar very high for dominating undefeated group stage runs, and even with the weak competition here, it won't be easy for Ohio St to reach those heights of dominance. The Mississippi St. Bulldogs are not serious challenged at any point by Toledo. It wouldn't be surprising to see the SEC's Bulldogs rise above the other mediocrity here. 5-7 in the SEC is certainly the most impressive resume in the group outside of Ohio St. The 3-5 ACC Conference mark of the Cavaliers is not as impressive, and Virigina failed show anything against Central Florida in a 40-point shutout loss.

Week 2:
Ohio St. 41, Mississippi St. 13
Central Florida 48, Kent St. 20
Toledo 38, Virginia 32

The Bulldogs scored first against Ohio St. (to make it 3-0) but it was all Buckeyes after that. The only conceivable challenge remaining for Ohio St. appears to be Central Florida - but that's probably still too much to ask for the Knights, despite their impressive week 2 win against the Golden Flashes of Kent St. Finally, in the battle of teams coming off week 1 losses, the Rockets beat the Cavaliers. Toledo didn't take their first lead in that one until the first of 2 4th quarter TDs.

...

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Ohio St. 2-0 (+62)
Central Florida 2-0 (+68)
Mississippi St. 1-1 (-10)
Toledo 1-1 (-12)
Virginia 0-2 (-46)
Kent St. 0-2 (-62)

The critical thing to keep in mind when looking at the standings is which teams have played Ohio St. already, and which haven't. Mississippi St. is 1-1 and already has Ohio St out of the way - so they're in pretty good shape. Central Florida still has to deal with Ohio St, but it's tough to ignore their dominance, even if the competition has been week. Ohio St. has done what it was supposed to do, though its blowout haven't been at the level of Alabama's and Texas's earlier in the tournament. You're never quite sure how bad the bottom-feeder BCS schools are, because you can have a bad record in one of those conferences and still be decent. But Virginia is looking a lot like the Colorado train wreck from earlier in the tournament.

[molson]

GROUP E

Week 3:
Ohio St. 69, Toledo 14
Virginia 26, Kent St. 9
Central Florida 48, Mississippi St. 38

Ohio St. and Central Florida keep rolling, as they setup a showdown in week four for the Group E #1 ranking. Mississippi St. scored a last-second TD to make the score respectable, but Central Florida controlled the game throughout to improve to 3-0. Virginia finally shows a little life in a battle of winless teams.

Week 4:
Ohio St. 17, Central Florida 10
Kent St. 38, Toledo 33
Virginia 31, Mississippi St. 19.

Ohio St does indeed face its toughest challenge in the group against UCF, but the Buckeyes meet that challenge and clinch the #1 spot in the group. A last-second TD cut the final deficit in half, but the Buckeyes controlled the low-scoring affair throughout. Kent St. gets a 50-yard TD run in the final seconds against Toledo to complete a furious comeback where they scored the final 24 points. Virginia, who looked DEAD after the first two weeks, fight back to 2-2 after a solid win against fellow mediocre BCS team Mississippi St.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Ohio St. 4-0 (+124)
Central Florida 3-1 (+71)
Virginia 2-2 (-17)
Mississippi St. 1-3 (-32)
Toledo 1-3 (-72)
Kent St. 1-3 (-74)

....

Week 5 Lineup:
Ohio St v. Virginia
Kent St. v. Mississippi St
Toledo v. Central Florida

A lot is already settled going into the final week of the group. With the head-to-head tiebreaker against Central Florida in hand, Ohio St. has already clinched the #1 spot in the group. UCF has clinched the #2 spot, and has become the first Conference USA team to clinch advancement. Virginia controls its own destiny for the #3 spot and final automatic birth - unfortunately for them, they have to beat Ohio St. to achieve that controlled destiny. But on the bright side, even if the Cavaliers lose, they still nail down the #3 spot if Central Florida can beat Toledo. In that scenario, a 2-3 Virginia team owns tiebreakers against potential 2-3 schools Kent St and Mississippi St. The #4 spot, and the potential wild card in play there, is completely up for grabs.

[molson]

GROUP E

Week 5:
Ohio St. 43, Virginia 13
Mississippi St. 45, Kent St. 29
Central Florida 45, Toledo 17

Three blowouts clean everything up. The Buckeyes roll again and become the third team to end the group stage undefeated. Central Florida has emerged as the best of the rest of the group, and the end up sweeping everyone outside of Ohio St.
....

Final Group E Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 Ohio St. 5-0 (+154)
#2 Central Florida 4-1 (+99)
#3 Virginia 2-3 (-47)
#4 Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
#5 Kent St 1-4 (-90)
#6 Toledo 1-4 (-100)

Ohio State, Central Florida, and Virginia advance. Central Florida becomes the first Conference USA team to advance.

The Cavaliers complete a pretty crazy turnaround after the first two weeks. They've taken advantage of a very lucky draw by getting to the next round solely via wins over Kent St. and Mississippi St. They look like the weakest advancing team yet.

Mississippi St. gets the #4 spot because they lost that head-to-head game with Virginia in week 4. At 2-3, -16, the Bulldogs do finish ahead of UCLA (and Kentucky) in the current wild card race - so the Bruins, now out of the top 4 4th place teams, have been officially eliminated. They join Arizona as the 2nd PAC-10 team to go.

......

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22)
UCLA 2-3 (-36) ELIMINATED

....

Next up is Group F, which features TCU

[molson]

GROUP F

# 6 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1)
Hawaii (WAC, 3-5, 6-7)
Indiana (Big 10, 1-7, 4-8)
Louisiana Tech (WAC, 3-5, 5-8)
Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)
Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 8-5)

Week 1:
TCU 99, Hawaii 7
Louisiana Tech 31, Indiana 28
Minnesota 34, Nevada 30 (OT)

My goodness. Someone's going to break 100 in this tournament and TCU almost did it, dropping 99 on Hawaii. That's 13 TDs for TCU (and two FGs for good measure). The Horned Frogs rush 79 times for 769 yards (and only attempt 9 passes). LA Tech gets by the Hoosiers in a back-and-forth game - that's a pretty big early win for the Bulldogs, as I had no idea how things were going to shake themselves out after TCU. Minnesota redeems the Big-10 and wins the first OT game of the tournament, defeating Nevada in something of a minor upset. The Golden Gophers drove 69 yards in the final minutes of regulation, and scored a game-tying TD with seconds left. They then scored a TD in response to the Wolf Pack's first OT possession FG for the win.

Week 2:
TCU 82, Indiana 0
Minnesota 48, Hawaii 14
Louisiana Tech 45, Nevada 44 (2 OT)

There's something brewing with the Horned Frogs, who follow up their 99-point explosion in week one with an 82-0 shutout of the Hoosiers. TCU appears primed to make a run at a 5-0 group stage, and a huge point differential that could lead them to the #1 overall seed going into the next round. Minnesota has taken control of their destiny, moving to 2-0 by blowing out the Warriors. And then, we have probably the wildest game yet in the tournament. It was another OT game involving Nevada, who probably came into this group as the favorite to land the #2 seed, but now are in serious danger of not advancing.

The Wolf Pack opened up a 24-0 lead about halfway through the 2nd Quarter, and then led 31-3 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Then the Bulldogs went nuts, scoring 4 unanswered TDs to setup a potential game-winning 54-yard FG as time expired in regulation. They missed that, so we went to OT. The teams traded TDs in the first OT. In the 2nd OT, Nevada scored a TD, but missed the extra point! Louisiana Tech answered with their own TD, and coverted the PAT to earn the 1-point win.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

TCU 2-0 (+174)
Minnesota 2-0 (+38)
Louisiana Tech 2-0 (+4)
Nevada 0-2 (-5)
Indiana 0-2 (-85)
Hawaii 0-2 (-126)

Can anyone stop (or slow down) the Horned Frogs? Probably not in this group. But Louisiana Tech and Minnesota took advantage of not having to deal with TCU the first two weeks and put themselves in excellent position to advance. Nevada came into the tournament with a 7-1 WAC conference record and could end up being one of the more surprising casualties of the group stage unless they can run overcome their two stunning OT defeats and somehow run the table against Indiana, Hawaii, and ... TCU. The Work Pack have an uphill climb. That last loss really was crazy - blowing a 31-3 3rd quarter lead, and then missing an extra point in OT.

[molson]

GROUP F

Week 3:
TCU 44, Louisiana Tech 3
Nevada 55, Hawaii 27
Minnesota 38, Indiana 7

LA-Tech gets a 3-0 lead on TCU before the inevitable fireworks. Still, the 41-point defect has to be considered a moral victory. Nevada gets a much-needed blowout win, and Minnesota moves to 3-0 to virtually wrap up advancement, and setup a big matchup with TCU next week for the group championship

Week 4:
TCU 31, Minnesota 3
Louisiana Tech 41, Hawaii 21
Nevada 34, Indiana 17

Minnesota can only avoid "spectacular blowout" and manages a mere "regular blowout". Hawaii leads 14-0 early against LA-Tech, but can't keep pace after that. Of the three WAC teams in this group after TCU, LA-Tech is the one I thought had the lowest chance to advance, but they've been impressive. Nevada wins again, but the two devastating OT losses in this group will be impossible to overcome and gain automatic advancement, it appears.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

TCU: 4-0 (+243)
Minnesota: 3-1 (+41)
Louisiana Tech: 3-1 (-17)
Nevada: 2-2 (+40)
Indiana: 0-4 (-133)
Hawaii: 0-4 (-174)

...

Week 5 Lineup:

TCU v. Nevada
Hawaii v. Indiana
Louisiana Tech v. Minnesota

TCU has locked up the #1 spot (as they own the tiebreakers against Minnesota and LA-Tech), but they're looking for a sweep and a top seed for the next round here against Nevada. Minnesota and LA-Tech will face off for the #2 spot. The loser will still advance at #3, because both own tiebreakers against Nevada (both defeated the Wolf Pack in OT). There's a big difference between a #2 and a #3 seeding going into the next round, so that's a pretty big game. A #2 will likely play another #2, or a high #3, in the next round, whereas a #3 will probably have to deal with a group winner.

Nevada still has a lot to play for. They're locked into the #4 spot, and the wild card race, and their current +40 point differential is very strong for a #4 seed. They will likely remain in wild card contention even if they lose to TCU - as long as that entire positive point differential isn't wiped out in that game. If they somehow manage to beat TCU, they're in great shape for wild card, as very few #4 teams are going to be 3-2 with a point differential greater than 40. Their recovery the last two weeks for the current #4 team in the Wild Card race Kentucky, who will probably thus join Indiana and Hawaii in the elimination pile after week 5.

Indiana and Hawaii will both be looking for their only victory of the group, and to avoid the sad-sack group of winless group teams (currently including Tulane, Colorado, and Miami (Ohio).

[hoopsguy]

Fun concept, I'll be following it the rest of the way.

My team - the Illini - appear to be headed for a particularly short and brutal existence.

[ntndeacon]

I have some hopes that my Deacs will at least get through this first round. Lots of fun watching so far.

[molson]

Thanks for following along.

One thing I like about the format is that everyone has a shot at at least the round of 64 if things fall right. Definitely Wake does. I can't imagine a scenerio that works for Illinois though (but they might have had a shot in another group).

[molson]

GROUP F

Week 5
TCU 41, Nevada 22
Indiana 52, Hawaii 24
Minnesota 31, Louisiana Tech 16

No surprises on the last day of Group F play. Nevada gets closer to TCU than anyone before it, and does well does to stay in wild card contention, for now. Indiana finally gets a win. Minnesota nails down the #2 spot.

Final Group F Standings, with point differential in parenthesis

#1 TCU 5-0 (+262)
#2 Minnesota 4-1 (+56)
#3 Louisiana Tech 3-2 (-32)
#4 Nevada 2-3 (+21)
#5 Indiana 1-4 (-105)
#6 Hawaii 0-5 (-202)

TCU, Minnesota, and Louisiana Tech advance. Nevada cracks the current top 4 of the 4th place teams, and bumps out Kentucky - who is the first SEC team to be eliminated. Indiana becomes the first Big-10 team to be eliminated, and Hawaii is gone as well.

TCU completes the clean sweep, joining Alabama, Texas and Ohio as 5-0 teams. TCU's +262 point differential in second highest in that group. They're thus in place to be the #2 overall seed going into the next round, unless somebody can top that (which becomes more and more unlikely with each passing stage, as we move down through the top 20 seeds).

Louisiana Tech manages to get in, but in winning close and losing big - their point differential is pretty bad. They'll be seeded near the bottom in the next round (though ahead of the wild cards), so they're looking at a preliminary knockout stage matchup with the #5 or #6 overall seed, in all likelihood.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22) ELIMINATED
UCLA 2-3 (-36) ELIMINATED

Mississippi St. is now on the Wild Card chopping block. The next time a 4th place team beats the Bulldogs' profile, they're done.

Up next, Group G. Where there's 3 solid BCS teams (Iowa, Stanford, Texas A&M), and three shaky non-BCS schools (LA-Monroe, Northern Illinois, Memphis). The latter group may be fighting for the #4 group spot, where they'll need to beat up on each other and stay close to the BCS schools to have a shot at a Wild Card.

[molson]

GROUP G

#7 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2)
LA-Monroe (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)
Memphis (Conference USA, 1-7, 2-10)
Northern Illinois (Mid-American, 5-3, 7-6)
Stanford (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Texas A&M (Big 12, 3-5, 6-7)

Week 1
Iowa 59, Louisiana-Monroe 3
Northern Illinois 41, Memphis 24
Stanford 55, Texas A&M 34

Nice start for Iowa. 5-0 will be tough for them with Texas A&M and Stanford looming. The Huskies break open a close game with two 4th quarter TDs to defeat Memphis. Stanford gets a bead on the #2 spot (and a shot at the Hawkeyes and #1) with a convincing win v. A&M.

Week 2
Iowa 60, Memphis 3
Stanford 41, Louisiana-Monroe 38
Texas A&M 43, Northern Illinois 26

Iowa is remarkably consistent, pulling off a 60-3 win after the 59-3 win the week before. Next up for them is Northern Illinois, before they tangle with the BCS schools. The Warhawks make a serious upset big but come up just short against Stanford. That would have definitely shaken things up. Louisiana-Monroe took a 37-34 lead with 1:01 left in the game with a 16-yard TD pass. The Cardinal started the ensuing drive on their own 26, with :56 left. No problem. A 7 play, 74-yard drive culminates in a game winning TD in the final seconds. Texas A&M has somewhat less trouble with Northern Illinois.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Iowa 2-0 (+113)
Stanford 2-0 (+24)
Northern Illinois 1-1 (Even)
Texas A&M 1-1 (-4)
Louisiana-Monroe 0-2 (-59)
Memphis 0-2 (-74)

Everything going to form so far (as far as actual game results, not necessary how we got there). Iowa v. Stanford Week 4 will likely decide the group championship. Northern Illinois v. Louisiana-Monroe, as expected, will be the key game for the "undercard" of non-BCS schools. I think Northern Illinois really needed to beat Memphis by more than 17 to feel good about their wild card chances as a #4 seed though.