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Old 05-10-2017, 12:12 AM   #451
mauchow
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I guess it could be trying to dave brit too, jackals vote...
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:36 AM   #452
bhlloy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Wow, looks like Jackal's post really was a wolf slipup. I talked myself out of it because it seemed too good to be true. So presumably someone on Jackal had a double vote, though I suppose it could be a vote steal or some other mechanic. Presumably not a duke move however.

Worst night ever, to lose both our best villager roles. But I suspect this one is going to come down to thread play, not roles.

I'm going to be honest and say that had I been around I probably would have moved off him too for the same reason. I still wonder if there's something else going on because I can't see a slip up like that from him but sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one.

I think the one thing that worries me about this rule set is somehow the seer has been manipulated into a bad scan, because that is really going to screw us for the rest of the game. Although that would be very difficult for a wolf team to successfully pull off
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Old 05-10-2017, 07:26 AM   #453
JAG
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Great result with knocking off the wolf leader with the first vote. I talked myself out of his comment being such an obvious slip up...oops.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:02 AM   #454
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Not great to lose two of the better villager roles we had alas. But the info we got out of day 1 seems pretty strong. I'm going to start with a vote on Abe, it looked like he was maybe giving cover to Jackal with post 263 and then voted font who seemed like an easier place to go to drum up a jackal alternative with the reaction she got from folks with her vote / unvote moves.

Morning will be busy again, but I should have more time this afternoon than I've had the past couple days.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:03 AM   #455
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Vote Abe Sargent
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:32 AM   #456
Autumn
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Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
vote britrock88

Trying to look at voting movements. At this moment Jackal and Font are tied for the lead with three, Brit has two. Jackal unvotes Font and votes Brit, switching that to a 3-3 Jackal-Brit lead.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:33 AM   #457
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Originally Posted by fontisian View Post
Ah. For the first batch, I didn't understand the unvoting requirements. For the second mistake I made, it was 3am, I was posting out of obligation, and I made a minor error. Shrug.

Unvote
Vote mauchow


I find autumn's points compelling enough to pursue and Jackal's response ... pure? enough to let go of that for now.

A couple of minutes later, Font unvotes Jackal and votes Mauchow, putting Brit in the lead ahead of Jackal.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:34 AM   #458
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Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
vote britrock88

Mau votes Brit, the most logical self-defense at this point.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:35 AM   #459
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Originally Posted by JAG View Post
Vote mauchow

JAG unvotes brit and votes Mau, making it a tight race between Brit and Mau at this point, Jackal has fallen into third.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:36 AM   #460
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Originally Posted by JAG View Post
I feel better about the block of voters on mau than brit.

JAG gives this rationale, so meaning Mau, Chief, and Jackal are who he feels worse about.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:38 AM   #461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Votes as of post 380

britrock88 3 - Chief Rum (346), The Jackal (367), mauchow (378)
mauchow 3 - Autumn (355), fontisian (368), JAG (380)
The Jackal 2 - bhlloy (261), britrock88 (291)
fontisian 2 - Abe Sargent (265), Telle (297)
Autumn 1 - Julio Riddols (232)
Chief Rum 1 - cheekimonk (311)

It's here near the end, and then Mau switches from Brit to Jackal. Hard to read that as a wolf move. Jackal was brutal, so there could be some strategy there if they felt a wolf was going to go, but unless brit, mau and Jackal are all wolves, seems wolf mau would stick on Brit.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:39 AM   #462
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Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
unvote jackal
Vote brit

Jackal moves from Brit to Mau, and then last second, Mau makes this move. Now I might take back what I just said. Was the move to Jackal just for appearances? Why flip flop like this in the last moments?
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:43 AM   #463
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Wow, looks like Jackal's post really was a wolf slipup. I talked myself out of it because it seemed too good to be true.

Same here. Obvious wolf was obvious.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:46 AM   #464
Autumn
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Originally Posted by Telle View Post
Don't know how fast EagleFan is going to get back to us with a revised vote total.. this is what my spreadsheet says:
3 The Jackal - bhlloy (261), Bitrock88 (291), fontisian (316),
3 mauchow - Autumn (355), JAG (380), The Jackal (401)
2 britrock88 - Chief Rum (346), mauchow (402)
2 fontisian - Abe Sargent (265), Telle (297)
1 Autumn - Julio Riddols (232)
1 Chief Rum - cheekimonk (311)

Assuming this is the correct final tally, not counting Font's switch that didn't count ... Jackal still wins over Mau. Presumably, one of those three had an extra vote. If it was Font, Font presumably meant to move to Mauchow (I think this new posting format is new enough to us all to assume that mistakes are authentic mistakes). If it was one of the other two, those votes were there for awhile. Of course it's possible there's a secret vote mechanic, or a vote for Mau doesn't count for some other mechanic reason.

I guess at this point I want to hear from Mauchow because that last second switch is weird. Why not stick on Jackal who is your only chance to avoid the lynch? Was it trying to make a tie between Jackal and Brit? Because we thought Font's vote was on Mau.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:50 AM   #465
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Sorry for all the posts, but it helped me to process what happened there, and not to have to flip back forever.

At this point I am wondering whether Jackal wasn't protecting Font. He moved off of Font in a way that didn't help his chances at all, but just made it a Brit-Jackal tie instead. And then Font unvotes Jackal and votes Mau, which effectively puts Brit in the lead without the two ganging up on Britrock. If there were two wolves in the mix, this makes sense. If not, I'm not sure why Jackal doesn't just stick with Font.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:50 AM   #466
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vote fontisian
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:51 AM   #467
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Putting this vote down early to stake something based off of this research. I'm interested in hearing from Font and Mauchow today, as well as any of the folks who missed the evening fun.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:54 AM   #468
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
It's here near the end, and then Mau switches from Brit to Jackal. Hard to read that as a wolf move. Jackal was brutal, so there could be some strategy there if they felt a wolf was going to go, but unless brit, mau and Jackal are all wolves, seems wolf mau would stick on Brit.

This was my first thought after catching up last night post-results. Jackal's uncharacteristic goof would need a strategic response. It's clear he was going to be suspect #1, and perhaps even offed w/ an ability, on D2 even if he wasn't lynched N1. Better to go ahead and take a target with him.

Not sure right now if I buy into all that but at the least it means mau can't be completely off the hook.
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Old 05-10-2017, 08:59 AM   #469
Autumn
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Originally Posted by cheekimonk View Post
This was my first thought after catching up last night post-results. Jackal's uncharacteristic goof would need a strategic response. It's clear he was going to be suspect #1, and perhaps even offed w/ an ability, on D2 even if he wasn't lynched N1. Better to go ahead and take a target with him.

Not sure right now if I buy into all that but at the least it means mau can't be completely off the hook.

I think the brutal ability only comes into play if we had two wolves in the mix last night. Imagining so makes the voting much more interesting and useful, as per my thoughts above, but I do admit it's often wishful thinking.
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:04 AM   #470
cheekimonk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Sorry for all the posts, but it helped me to process what happened there, and not to have to flip back forever.

At this point I am wondering whether Jackal wasn't protecting Font. He moved off of Font in a way that didn't help his chances at all, but just made it a Brit-Jackal tie instead. And then Font unvotes Jackal and votes Mau, which effectively puts Brit in the lead without the two ganging up on Britrock. If there were two wolves in the mix, this makes sense. If not, I'm not sure why Jackal doesn't just stick with Font.

If the baddies are going with the strategy I mentioned, getting Jackal lynched N1 if any of them since he's brutal, this clears brit and focuses on font. Seems a good enough place to start as any...
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:05 AM   #471
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vote font
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Old 05-10-2017, 09:29 AM   #472
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Votes as of 471

fontisian 2 - Autumn (466), cheekimonk (471)
Abe Sargent 1 - JAG (455)
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Old 05-10-2017, 10:24 AM   #473
mauchow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Jackal moves from Brit to Mau, and then last second, Mau makes this move. Now I might take back what I just said. Was the move to Jackal just for appearances? Why flip flop like this in the last moments?

I had not seen that jackal could flip to me in self defense and after realizing my mistake it was already too late and with a few people online I tried pleading a little.

I thought I was dead. Not much I can do to detract from any suspicion that is on me.. but I deserve it a little based on the end.

If you have specific questions lemme know, I can answer best I can. I've got meetings til 3 then a 2 he drive back home and then a bball game at 9est. I'll be done at deadline for a last bit check in..
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Old 05-10-2017, 10:43 AM   #474
Abe Sargent
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Morning all! Only have a quick moment here pre-work (i'm already a few minutes ate, I'm supposed to be at work 6 minutes ago). to check in.

I'm glad to start seeing some vote analysis of Day 1 stuff. We have a wolf, which puts us up on that quickly. I'll look closer later, but I'm willing to give a few hours to see if someone can give some more info on fontisian. If the Kilnk role is in the game, (likely I suspect), then she triggered him yesterday, so someone probably has more info on her.

I do think the false "unvote" off the brutal wolf and vote getter gives her some coverage in-thread from the heat coming her way.
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Old 05-10-2017, 10:45 AM   #475
Abe Sargent
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Originally Posted by JAG View Post
Not great to lose two of the better villager roles we had alas. But the info we got out of day 1 seems pretty strong. I'm going to start with a vote on Abe, it looked like he was maybe giving cover to Jackal with post 263 and then voted font who seemed like an easier place to go to drum up a jackal alternative with the reaction she got from folks with her vote / unvote moves.

Morning will be busy again, but I should have more time this afternoon than I've had the past couple days.

That's fair. I just thought TJ was musing for musings sake, and felt the random PM musings for a section of villagers was just a bad tangent we should just cut off and move on than anything else. So I get that could make me look Wolfish the next day.
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:15 PM   #476
britrock88
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Here's a summary of the run-up to lynch:

Quote:
Votes as of post 357

The Jackal 3 - bhlloy (261), britrock88 (291), fontisian (316)
fontisian 3 - Abe Sargent (265), Telle (297), The Jackal (324)
britrock88 2 - JAG (206), Chief Rum (346)
Autumn 1 - Julio Riddols (232)
tarcone 1 - mauchow (307)
Chief Rum 1 - cheekimonk (311)
mauchow 1 - Autumn (355)

---

Mau unvotes tarcone at 9:30.
Jackal switches from Font to Brit at 9:32-34. The Jackal/Font tie becomes a Jackal/Brit tie.
Font attempts to switch from Jackal to Mau at 9:34. EF processes the vote despite the formatting.

---

Quote:
Votes as of post 369

britrock88 3 - JAG (206), Chief Rum (346), The Jackal (367)
The Jackal 2 - bhlloy (261), britrock88 (291)
fontisian 2 - Abe Sargent (265), Telle (297)
mauchow 2 - Autumn (355), fontisian (368)
Autumn 1 - Julio Riddols (232)
Chief Rum 1 - cheekimonk (311)

But with Font's vote being invalid, the actual tally is:

The Jackal 3 - bhlloy (261), britrock88 (291), fontisian (316)
britrock88 3 - JAG (206), Chief Rum (346), The Jackal (367)
fontisian 2 - Abe Sargent (265), Telle (297)
Autumn 1 - Julio Riddols (232)
Chief Rum 1 - cheekimonk (311)
mauchow 1 - Autumn (355)

---

Mau votes Brit at 9:48.
JAG switches from Brit to Mau at 9:49-50.

---

Quote:
Votes as of post 380

britrock88 3 - Chief Rum (346), The Jackal (367), mauchow (378)
mauchow 3 - Autumn (355), fontisian (368), JAG (380)
The Jackal 2 - bhlloy (261), britrock88 (291)
fontisian 2 - Abe Sargent (265), Telle (297)
Autumn 1 - Julio Riddols (232)
Chief Rum 1 - cheekimonk (311)

Accurate tally:

The Jackal 3 - bhlloy (261), britrock88 (291), fontisian (316)
britrock88 3 - Chief Rum (346), The Jackal (367), mauchow (378)
fontisian 2 - Abe Sargent (265), Telle (297)
mauchow 2 - Autumn (355), JAG (380)
Autumn 1 - Julio Riddols (232)
Chief Rum 1 - cheekimonk (311)

---

Mau switches from Brit to Jackal at 9:59.
The apparent tally flips from a Brit/Mau tie to a Mau/Jackal tie.
With Font's voted accounted for, the vote puts Jackal 2 ahead of Font/Mau/Brit.

Jackal switches from Brit to Mau at 10:00.
The apparent tally would be Mau 4, Jackal 3, Font 2.
The actual tally is Jackal 4, Mau 3.

Mau switches from Jackal to Brit at 10:00.
Apparent tally: Mau 4, Jackal/Font/Brit 2.
Actual tally: Jackal/Mau 3, Brit 2.

---

As you pore this over, remember that one of bhlloy and myself appears to have an extra vote (compare posts 408 and 413 to see why I eliminated Font from that group).
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:28 PM   #477
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My overarching observations with last night's deadline activity, by character involved:

- Jackal: unsurprisingly tried to self-save at the deadline, at Mau's expense. The flip from Font to Brit a half-hour earlier is a thing to note (I won't make anything more of it, though).

- Mau: appeared to put Brit 2 up on Jackal/Font/Mau at 9:48. Vacillated between Brit and Jackal at the deadline, and not in a way that accomplished much.

- Font: placed the vote that didn't stick at 9:34, switching from Jackal to Mau. (I'm not convinced anything nefarious was at play; however, there is not only the move off Jackal to justify, but also the confusion in the thread that resulted from the formatting issue. Should we keep overlooking this?) Finally, she checked out at 9:42.

- Brit: AFK, with a vote hanging on Jackal throughout.
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:29 PM   #478
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Autumn feels very Good to me.
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:34 PM   #479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
I am a villager with a minor role so if it's me that's got to go I am okay with that, but it's semi disappointing at the same time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
Don't vote me ffs

These two posts don't fit well together from a role-based perspective, though Mau could just want to play more WW--that's a likely explanation for him, actually.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
Trying to live. Thought someone would switch over last second with me and then I realized jackals vote on me put me back on top so then I thought if I went back, jackal would go back.. too little too late, which ended up not mattering...incredibly. And maybe my vote looks suspicious but not really. Just desperation.

We got lucky and because of it I think wolves will see me as a likely cleared player behind telle and probably brit/font for the time being.

With regards to who to look at next, I'd probably look at jag a little. While Autumn brought my name as a target it wasn't until jag cast a vote on me that opened the door to get rid of me. Once I switched over to jackal he was able to go with a self defense excuse to not tie self to jag as buddies trying to save their own. As luck would have it, we got to see that and I lived...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
I guess it could be trying to dave brit too, jackals vote...

Mau's after-deadline analysis. He starts by suggesting he and Jackal could coordinate votes in-thread, which is better than the possible alternative of them coordinating out-of-thread (by Bad PM).

The suggestion that he's cleared seems a bit sui generis, and I wonder what led Mau to think Font is clear.

I actually concur that JAG does not seem quite as Good as usual--maybe the Autumn/Bhlloy/Telle trio are crowding my Good read group.
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:36 PM   #480
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My takeaway is that I'm more interested in Font than Mau after last night's lynch.
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:36 PM   #481
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vote Fontisian
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:38 PM   #482
britrock88
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And I mentioned in passing that extra vote that so happened to show up and swing the result last night. It looks like it belongs to one of Bhlloy and myself (posts 408 and 413, for reference). I'll go ahead and say I don't have the extra voting power.
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Old 05-10-2017, 12:39 PM   #483
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And before I leave this alone for a while, I'll mention that I'm out of commission after work again, though I could juuust make it back for deadline.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:02 PM   #484
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I think I'm good to look at font and mau today. Looking back at yesterday's deadline both have things that bug me a little.

Font with the invalid vote to move off Jackal - is that a(nother?) deliberate invalid vote or a genuine try to move off and save a wolf?

Mau with the late move off a wolf which seemingly seals his own fate, why on earth do that?

Possible both are villagers getting caught up in deadline craziness? Sure, and I wasn't around so it's a bit rich for me to criticize, but hey it's WW. I think we learn a ton more about day 1 by putting them under more scrutiny.

I do think we're going to have to take a look at the inactives pretty soon as well. Tarcone (who seems to have gone completely AWOL) and cheekimonk at the top of the list. That being said, both were pretty inactive on day 0 as well when they couldn't possibly have known they were wolves, but that's another direction I'd like to go in
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:05 PM   #485
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I like JAG's reasoning in #454 above as well, so I'm keeping Abe in the back of my mind here as well. Put a counter vote on font to Jackal and left it there all day, plus the defense in thread.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:06 PM   #486
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vote mauchow
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:06 PM   #487
bhlloy
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Let's start by having all 3 of those guys on the block and see what happens
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:15 PM   #488
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Votes as of 487

fontisian 3 - Autumn (466), cheekimonk (471), britrock88 (481)
Abe Sargent 1 - JAG (455)
mauchow 1 - bhlloy (486)
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:15 PM   #489
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Brit and Autumn, appreciate the work you put in.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:20 PM   #490
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Quote:
Originally Posted by britrock88 View Post

The suggestion that he's cleared seems a bit sui generis, and I wonder what led Mau to think Font is clear.

I actually concur that JAG does not seem quite as Good as usual--maybe the Autumn/Bhlloy/Telle trio are crowding my Good read group.

Why would font mistankingly not unvote jackal which In The end killed him as a wolf? That confusion allowed me to love another day and like you said, I get to keep playing. I'm selfish like that, especially when there are inactive players who again, quiet players are more valuable as wolves vs villagers.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:23 PM   #491
mauchow
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My explanation confuses even me now about font..as it was what it was, a mistake, but I don't see a wolf incriminating themselves to save a wolf like that.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:29 PM   #492
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Everything seems very surreal, the events over the past twenty four hours were entirely chaotic, frightening and surprisingly exhilarating. What does today have in store for the group? What does it have in store for you?

Why is the Sanitarium allowing this to happen? It seems more and more like you may never find out. Is there a way out? Are you all doomed? Are some more doomed than others? It's up to you to determine your fate, you and the rest of the "crazies" who seem just as doomed as you.

There is a very cloudy window near the door that you entered your "cell block" which you can see very little through. You can barely make out a couple figures talking outside. One hands some object over to the other, they shake hands and soon the one that handed over the object leaves.

A loud buzzer sounds.

"Inma, patients, yeah, patients to your cel, rooms, yeah, rooms."

Everyone stares blankly with a thousand yard stare.

"NOW!"

You rush to your rooms. Inside you wonder what will happen next.

There is a click from the main door outside and the sound of people coming into the main room. You look towards the main room but your vision is blocked by the curtain across your door. Where the hell does that keep coming from?

A lot of movement is heard, another door is opened--that must be the room with the sign, the room the strange uniformed man went into to shred those documents.

"No, we don't change our plans. This just helps us along."

You hear the office door close, without a click.

Then footsteps walking towards the main door. Soon the main door slams shut and the sound of the lock engaging echoes through the area.

Everyone blinks and there thousand yard stares fade. Wait, how did you get back in the main room? You look towards your rooms and you see your cardboard and your bucket through the open door. Where did that damn curtain go?

Everything seems wonderful, you just need to find someone else to kill.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:31 PM   #493
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Back to work, will be on later to catch back up.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:33 PM   #494
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I dislike to vote-pile on one candidate because it removes vote-analysis later on down the road. But for now, I'm voting fontisian to lock her in as a candidate, and I still suspect there is something off here with her. But at the same time, I'm willing to consider a move to someone else if there is anything or anyone that seems like a good target.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:33 PM   #495
Abe Sargent
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vote fontisian
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:35 PM   #496
mauchow
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Location: Murfreesboro, TN
I guess I'm torn on font in general, I don't think a group of 2 or 3 wolves would miss the fact that fonts vote didn't count. I missed it, obviously as did many others. I thought I was done for up til the final moment. Switching my vote back to jackal, in my eyes didn't change the fact that I was going to die, which is why I switched back to brit, since I thought maybe jackal would go back and id still live.

I personally think day 1 vote will have more analysis to use in a few days rather than trying to derive something from my hectic last moment.
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:35 PM   #497
cheekimonk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mauchow View Post
Why would font mistankingly not unvote jackal which In The end killed him as a wolf?

I can still see the wolves wanting Jackal lynched as his slip made him a target sooner than later and he uses brutal to take a dangerous enemy player, CR, with him (not that they would have known his role, but that CR's a formidable foe in any capacity).
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Old 05-10-2017, 01:41 PM   #498
mauchow
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I guess I just don't see purposely not unvoting at this juncture unless another wolf was on the block and it's the easier way out. So we would have to look at the others on the block at the time...which was me and brit. Lovely.
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Old 05-10-2017, 02:55 PM   #499
JAG
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I feel like I need to take a step back here. Things I'm thinking of include:

Did the wolves know we were working with a borked vote count? My suspicion is not based on how Jackal reacted to mau's vote moving around towards the end.

Were the wolves in 'save him' mode or 'look good when he dies' mode?

I read back over the first part of day 1. I'd like to hear from font why she went with her plan of trying to nullify Klink's role but didn't vote / unvote for about five players that could possibly be Klink. Reading the start of D1, bhlloy and Julio floated my name as a possible vote and Abe actually pushed back a little on them, which I read as more a villager move than wolf. I still need to read back and think on things some more.
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Old 05-10-2017, 02:56 PM   #500
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