NFL 2018 Season Thread

[albionmoonlight]

As others have noted, the Saints have a very specific plan for finding the QB of the future:

(1) Identify a prolific college QB from a non-traditional football power with some question marks.

(2) Let another team draft him in the late first/early second.

(3) Have him start to flash some ability early in his career.

(4) Then have him then suffer a horrific injury that has people wondering if he will ever play again.

(5) Compete for him in free agency against the Dolphins.

(6) Sign him to a free agent contract on March 14.

(7) Profit!

[BishopMVP]

Tyreek Hill under investigation in a domestic incident that involved his son getting a broken arm.

[stevew]

Well that’s a 80 million dollar mistake

[miami_fan]

Ted Rath, Rams 'get-back coach', charged with sexual battery - NFL.com

[QuikSand]

The 49ers contract with Dee Ford is really interesting...

Dee Ford Contract Details, Salary Cap Breakdowns, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

They basically have an out each year, if he’s not star-caliber. Dunno who’s calling the shots there but that’s clever. I’m surprised they got him to take that deal.

[thesloppy]

Tyreek Hill looking like a real piece of shit. He should get banned. It was remarkable the first time that he beat his pregnant girlfriend and basically got a free pass from the world because he managed to do so at just the time when neither the college nor pro system could effectively punish him.

[Thomkal]

Ryan Fitzpatrick replaces Tannehill in Miami

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Ryan Fitzpatrick replaces Tannehill in Miami

Some players thrive in certain situations: Tom Brady late in a big game, Aaron Rodgers against a single safety, and Ryan Fitzpatrick when there’s the slightest hint a team will give him $10 million the following season.

— Kevin Clark (@bykevinclark) September 16, 2018

[PilotMan]

Speaking of Fitz, I can't remember a player who has been ever the journeyman, who has made as much as he has, who has been a starter and backup for more teams than he has. It's such a unique career arc, add the longevity to keep doing it over and over again, and it's pretty damn interesting.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The 49ers contract with Dee Ford is really interesting...

Dee Ford Contract Details, Salary Cap Breakdowns, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

They basically have an out each year, if he’s not star-caliber. Dunno who’s calling the shots there but that’s clever. I’m surprised they got him to take that deal.

If that second year is guaranteed (which it appears to be), I guess you could look at it from his end as 2 years/$33 million. Which is not horrible, but still seems pretty team-friendly compared to, say, Olivier Vernon, who signed a bigger deal a few years ago when there was a smaller cap: Olivier Vernon Contract Details, Salary Cap Breakdowns, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Speaking of Fitz, I can't remember a player who has been ever the journeyman, who has made as much as he has, who has been a starter and backup for more teams than he has. It's such a unique career arc, add the longevity to keep doing it over and over again, and it's pretty damn interesting.

No time to look up Chris Chandler rn, but he and Steve DeBerg seem like the peer group that come to mind.

[thesloppy]

I like to think Vinny Testaverde is still king of that group. You have to start a lot of games in order to lose 123 of them.

[QuikSand]

yes yes Vinny yes

[PilotMan]

Vinny certainly would be in there.

He started half of the games or more for 5 different teams, over 21 years, but he was always expected to be the starter too. The expectations were significantly higher for him coming out of college than Fitz.

Chandler was beset with concussion problems throughout his career IIRC, and started half or more for 4 different teams in his 17 years.

Deberg less so starting half or more for 3 different teams in 16.

Fitz is heading into years 14 this year. He's started half of the games or more for 5 different teams (doesn't include Tampa the last 2 years at all; 1 more last year would have given him 6). He's heading into Miami with a shot to be the starter there. He only started 3 games his first 3 years in the league. The difference with Fitz is that he's been so many places where he started a lot for 1 season, only to move on to be a starter somewhere else. One season with Cincy, 1 with Tennessee, 1 with Houston. Nobody else has had that sort of travel and playing time on their resume.

[stevew]

It's funny that every team that needs a guy like Fitzpatrick(Buffalo, Rams, etc) has already had him.

[QuikSand]

So, Vontaze Burfict is apparently talking with the Raiders, which does make sense (given that I'm old enough to still think of the Raiders as a wretched hive of scum and villainy).

But I can't be the only one thinking he'd be a lovely reclamation project for the Patriots, right?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, Vontaze Burfict is apparently talking with the Raiders, which does make sense (given that I'm old enough to still think of the Raiders as a wretched hive of scum and villainy).

But I can't be the only one thinking he'd be a lovely reclamation project for the Patriots, right?

He's lost enough speed that I don't think he's much more than a backup at this point. He's also had enough concussions that he should walk away before doing even more damage to himself.

[spleen1015]

Dude has no regard for anyone else's health. I can't imagine he has any for his own.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, Vontaze Burfict is apparently talking with the Raiders, which does make sense (given that I'm old enough to still think of the Raiders as a wretched hive of scum and villainy).

But I can't be the only one thinking he'd be a lovely reclamation project for the Patriots, right?

Can he stay disciplined and set the edge? I also don't know him well enough past the dirty reputation, but if he's used to freelancing then it's a no.

Speaking of LB's who like to freelance, Jamie Collins is still out there too. I wonder where he'll end up.

[PilotMan]

I'm no Bengals fan, but it would be nice to see Burfict get out of this town, hell out of the league.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Speaking of Fitz, I can't remember a player who has been ever the journeyman, who has made as much as he has, who has been a starter and backup for more teams than he has. It's such a unique career arc, add the longevity to keep doing it over and over again, and it's pretty damn interesting.

And that's really why Kyler Murray made the right decision. If you are somewhere around QB #25-30 in this league you can easily clear 60-80 million career earnings, probably more as the cap keeps going up. I'm not sure what a below average negative WAR infielder makes over a career in MLB but I'm guessing it ain't that.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

And that's really why Kyler Murray made the right decision. If you are somewhere around QB #25-30 in this league you can easily clear 60-80 million career earnings, probably more as the cap keeps going up. I'm not sure what a below average negative WAR infielder makes over a career in MLB but I'm guessing it ain't that.

YES. Blake Bortles is so bad that he is used as a literal punch line. And he was unemployed for about 2 days before the Rams picked him up.

[miked]

Again, Daniel Murphy seems about as average as can be (maybe a hair above). His career earnings thus far are 55M with another 24M in guaranteed salary (if he's bought out). That is again, for somebody who has never really stood out. All you need is one good breakout year and all money is guaranteed.

Pablo Sandoval cleared 110M, the Red Sox paid him 40M+ not to play for them.

[molson]

Is the difference in your life between say, $40 million and $80 million worth brain damage?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

Is the difference in your life between say, $40 million and $80 million worth brain damage?

That's another generation worth of cash, if not two (depending on your procreation rate), so yeah I'd say it is.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by miked

Again, Daniel Murphy seems about as average as can be (maybe a hair above). His career earnings thus far are 55M with another 24M in guaranteed salary (if he's bought out). That is again, for somebody who has never really stood out. All you need is one good breakout year and all money is guaranteed.

Pablo Sandoval cleared 110M, the Red Sox paid him 40M+ not to play for them.

Wait, the three time all star with a .299 lifetime BA who was second in MVP voting? That’s a below average guy to you? He was literally the best batting 2B in the NL as recently as 2017.

And that’s even before you figure that you aren’t seeing the league for another 3 years and some top prospects don’t even make it. Whereas he’s a starting NFL QB from day 1. It’s the no brainierist of no brainer decisions ever.

As for head injuries, if he’s a LB maybe. QB’s aren’t going to have to worry about head injuries much moving forward. There’s probably just as much chance he gets a concussion running into a teammate playing baseball or slips in the shower.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

That's another generation worth of cash, if not two (depending on your procreation rate), so yeah I'd say it is.

Ora bunch of whips and gold toilets.

[miked]

Daniel Murphy is not a star, All-Star is different. I'm looking at his WAR and he hovers between 1-2 for most years with the random breakout (and is a pretty bad fielder). And I think the point of it is, with one breakout year (or a few kind of average to above average years), most of these guys are making in the 50-100M range without somebody chasing them down to break their legs and arms.

I see as many 1st round busts in the NFL as MLB, so neither is a sure thing. But one is kinder to your body and if you can hang around for a while in the MLB you can make up to 100M like Nick Markakis.

[miked]

Also, I'm not arguing that you are wrong or that he is making a bad choice. I just think the salary levels and guarantees for average baseball players are much better than average football players. Fitzmagic has been on a bunch of 1 and 2 year deals making 3-6M.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miked

I see as many 1st round busts in the NFL as MLB, so neither is a sure thing.

The math on that doesn't really work. Only about 1/5 (at most) of 1st round picks make it to the majors. Only 1/6th play 3 seasons in the majors.


The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study | Society for American Baseball Research

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, Vontaze Burfict is apparently talking with the Raiders, which does make sense (given that I'm old enough to still think of the Raiders as a wretched hive of scum and villainy).

Burfict joins Raiders, says AB pairing 'all positive'

[miked]

Fair enough, I'm lazy but it also says the average career of an NFL QB is 4.5 years, obviously there is some skew to that, especially likely higher for a first round QB.

I mean, 4 players just signed in baseball for 1.5B guaranteed. So if Harper can't swing a bat in 4 years, he will walk away from baseball with 400M+. Just seems like having 25 man rosters, 20 levels of minor league ball, no caps, and guaranteed contracts is a better deal.

[BishopMVP]

But minor league ball (which he'd almost certainly be in for 2+ years minimum) sucks compared to even being an NFL backup QB. You have your signing bonus $$$ so it's not the borderline indentured servitude others are dealing with, but it puts you in a bit of a weird position with teammates (and the nightlife in Beloit WI, Stockton CA, & Midland TX ain't exactly what it is even in Jacksonville or Oakland).

At the end of the day though I think the money question is an interesting side discussion, but it seems like the kid likes baseball and loves football, and as the once in a decade player who can make millions playing either he should pick whichever one he feels like.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by miked

Also, I'm not arguing that you are wrong or that he is making a bad choice. I just think the salary levels and guarantees for average baseball players are much better than average football players. Fitzmagic has been on a bunch of 1 and 2 year deals making 3-6M.

And he's making that without the draft pedigree that Murray will have. Even if Murray is a massive bust, and assuming that wasn't caused by a significant injury that affected his athleticism, I think he's likely to still make more over the course of all his non-rookie contracts than he would in pretty much all but the most optimistic scenarios for his baseball career.

[miami_fan]

Gronk has retired.

[molson]

He got out before the age of 30, and made $53 million in career earnings that he never touched a penny of during his career. Not a bad run.

[Lathum]

'Grateful' Gronkowski announces retirement

[Kodos]

He'll probably end up on MNF...

[albionmoonlight]

I've always thought that Gronk was a more fun player to dislike than to like (in fact, I think that there's an old thread on here where I argued with people about that). But the man's talent was undeniable. An easy HOF choice, in my opinion (though I'm already annoyed at five-years-from-now Bill Simmons and how over the top he's going to be about it).

[Vince, Pt. II]

You think he's going to wait five years to be obnoxious about it?

[stevew]

yeah, the saints got screwed. But I predict borderline rioting when the first reviewed PI call determines a game. Can't believe everyone is so willing to give Al Riveron this kind of power in his protected environment.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by stevew

yeah, the saints got screwed. But I predict borderline rioting when the first reviewed PI call determines a game. Can't believe everyone is so willing to give Al Riveron this kind of power in his protected environment.

Agreed. While bad calls stink, at some level everyone understands they happen. When a reviewed PI determines a game, people are going to go nuts.

[spleen1015]

I can see a situation where a team has the ball at the 50 and throws 4 straight hail marys hoping to get that PI call.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Kodos

He'll probably end up on Monday Night Raw...

FIFY

[stevew]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I can see a situation where a team has the ball at the 50 and throws 4 straight hail marys hoping to get that PI call.

Joe Flacco career resurgence?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Agreed. While bad calls stink, at some level everyone understands they happen. When a reviewed PI determines a game, people are going to go nuts.

This was a great example from the Super Bowl the competition committee used
Michael Giardi on Twitter: "The competition committee said this play should have been interference and the #Rams would have gotten the ball on the 1-yard line. I pointed this out that night (some of you were irritated). It was subtle but by the letter of the law...… https://t.co/lF1SCkzDy5"

If that's going to fall into the reviewed & overturned category they've basically eliminated handfighting on deep routes. More offense, yay!

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I can see a situation where a team has the ball at the 50 and throws 4 straight hail marys hoping to get that PI call.

Just as there is holding on every play, there's PI on nearly every passing play. Cut down on the rules, get better than competent officials, and quit slowing the game down with more reviews that on balance will not amount to more "fairness". Some fans will still be pissed off no matter what the call so what's the point?

[molson]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

get better than competent officials

Where are the better officials hiding out? Certainly they're not in college, people bitch about those refs every week. Probably not high school - they're verbally abused by parents, and we saw the best of them during the NFL ref strike.

I think it's just a harder job than people think, which will become a little more clear this season when fans will bitch about calls even after a PI replay.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by molson

Where are the better officials hiding out? Certainly they're not in college, people bitch about those refs every week. Probably not high school - they're verbally abused by parents, and we saw the best of them during the NFL ref strike.

Let me rephrase -- officials better than the type that missed a blatant PI call that very likely changed the outcome of a playoff game. If the NFL can't find ones better than those blind mice then adding more types of challenges isn't going to help matters one iota. Sure the job is hard but that's what they chose to do and what they get paid for. Do it right or do something else. I had nothing invested in the Saints game so I didn't care who won, but the length, the number of stoppages, and the number of discussions by officials in an NFL game is bordering on ridiculous. Four-hour games anyone? With still only 11 minutes of actual action? Time out for yet another commercial break...

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by molson

Where are the better officials hiding out? Certainly they're not in college, people bitch about those refs every week. Probably not high school - they're verbally abused by parents, and we saw the best of them during the NFL ref strike.

I think it's just a harder job than people think, which will become a little more clear this season when fans will bitch about calls even after a PI replay.

I think there's probably a lot of truth to that, but that the fact that all referees at all levels seem to be constantly set up for failure probably also speaks to some major cultural/systemic changes being needed. I suppose either way, simply hiring some unfamiliar dudes probably isn't going to be the solution we'd all wish it to be.

Personally I think it was a major mistake slowly putting refs names and faces on TV more and more, essentially giving them a very real financial & celebrity based motivation to put themselves on TV (by calling penalties) as much as possible. Now there are even post-career commentator jobs to drive that motivation further, even though it might not even be conscious/obvious to the officials themselves. It's waaaaay too late to put that cat back in the bag entirely, but it seems like it's worth questioning.