Werewolf LXXVI - The Werewolf Draft! Game over, see last pages for details

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by saldana

if my math is wrong, please correct it, seriously..i could very easily be wrong.

From your earlier explanation, it sounds like you are trying to figure the probability of getting the bodyguard and the seer (forgetting the fact that there are two seers), while CR's number was just any roled villager -- so instead of 1 out of 21, it's something like 8 or 9 out of 21.

[Lathum]

VOTE BARKEEP

barkeep is a very smart, analytical player. If there is even a .01% chance I am the real seer I don't see him voting me off unless he is a wolf.


Plus he made the argument that Hoops wouldn't pass on me, ALan, and BK. Well I know I am good and 99% sure Alan is also.

[Lathum]

dola- I agree with Alan, I see no reason for the BG to come out just to nail a wolf when eventualy it will catch up with DT.

I also still think DT is lying through his fangs

[Lathum]

Alan- my argument was that DT thinks I am a wolf. If he thinks that the Sal is a bad candidate. I was just trying to eliminat some of the crap DT was flinging agains walls to see what sticks

[Lathum]

triple dola- It would actualy be funny as hett if Poli had selected me and Sal as masons. We would know who each other are but not be able to talk about it which would be ammusing.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Danny

If Lathum is the fake seer, it could actually help us.

I'd prefer to just, you know, try voting for a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

a second candidate - saldana fits...GE fits as a nasty-wolf who hasn't been around a lot lately...

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why not?

Here's the two posts DT made about saldana. The first one was in response to when Alan voted for saldana, and the second one was in response to saldana saying you two couldn't both be wolves. I just don't see this as him flinging crap against walls. Do you have some personal history with DT that I don't know about?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I've felt the same way as you, Alan, but it seems they're working so closely together, with the same opinions, then saying there's no way they could both be wolves, hoping to get one semi-cleared if the other comes up wolf or something. As I typed this, it made me wonder if they were masons, and I thought about just nixing the post, but then I remembered that Lathum can't be a mason, since he's one of the seer types (note that by saying the word seer, I am in no way hinting at being a seer).

I dunno - I think Lathum and Saldana are just starting the game as RL friends who want to see the other be able to play as long as possible unless that person is close to assured to being a wolf. I've played the same way on the early days in recent games.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Day 1 vote flow:

Sweet! I was getting ready to try to the same over lunch since it was kinda quiet on here this morning.

[PackerFanatic]

BK trying to throw votes around and LGS' aggressiveness of late have peaked my radar - but for all I know, this is always how they play.

[st.cronin]

athum - 2 - Danny (1015), Barkeep49 (1040)
oliegirl - 1 - EagleFan (943)
EagleFan - 1 - Chief Rum (1000)
Mrs. Schmidty - 1- Passacaglia (1035)
Chief Rum - 1- RendeR (1038)
saldana - 1- Alan T (1044)
Barkeep49 - 1 - Lathum (1052)

[Telle]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

athum - 2 - Danny (1015), Barkeep49 (1040)
oliegirl - 1 - EagleFan (943)
EagleFan - 1 - Chief Rum (1000)
Mrs. Schmidty - 1- Passacaglia (1035)
Chief Rum - 1- RendeR (1038)
saldana - 1- Alan T (1044)
Barkeep49 - 1 - Lathum (1052)

Are you missing LoneStarGirl's vote on Chief Rum in post 939?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Telle

Are you missing LoneStarGirl's vote on Chief Rum in post 939?

Probably!

[st.cronin]

Corrected:

Lathum - 2 - Danny (1015), Barkeep49 (1040)
Chief Rum - 2- LoneStarGirl (939), RendeR (1038)
oliegirl - 1 - EagleFan (943)
EagleFan - 1 - Chief Rum (1000)
Mrs. Schmidty - 1- Passacaglia (1035)
saldana - 1- Alan T (1044)
Barkeep49 - 1 - Lathum (1052)

[SnDvls]

I'll put my vote back where it started yeserday

VOTE EAGLEFAN

not sure what it is that pings me about him but it does right now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mccollins

I dunno - I think Lathum and Saldana are just starting the game as RL friends who want to see the other be able to play as long as possible unless that person is close to assured to being a wolf. I've played the same way on the early days in recent games.

Maybe you have (I haven't noticed), but if so, you haven't been anywhere near as belligerent about it.

[RendeR]

Ok so we have 3 very viable wolf targets with 2 votes each, as is my preference lets keep this a three horse race for the time being and see what shakes out shall we?

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE BARKEEP49

Something rubs me the wrong way about him.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Ok so we have 3 very viable wolf targets with 2 votes each, as is my preference lets keep this a three horse race for the time being and see what shakes out shall we?

What if I don't like any of those three for my vote today?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

What if I don't like any of those three for my vote today?

Exactly what I was thinking. I don't like any of them. Although now Barkeep has two on him, and I'm thinking of going in that direction.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FTR, I'm not sure which game you're talking about, but isn't it a pretty common wolf move to take your vote off someone who reveals? Anyway, I didn't taky my vote off someone who revealed -- I took my vote off oliegirl.

Maybe you just weren't sure about Lathum or DT, but I found it odd that an active player like you waited all day to make a move one way or the other. Granted, you could have just been waiting for DT to follow through on his hinted reveal to see if he was believable, but I thought it was a weird way to play your vote.

[oliegirl]

I am torn between voting for BK and EF, I don't want to do what looks like a "retaliatory" vote unless I have to in order to save myself, and BK is a little higher on my suspect list right now anyway, so...

Vote Barkeep49

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Now that I know Alan is clear, and knowing that I am good, I just don't see Hoops passing on all three of us. That only leaves Lathum. Even if he's telling the truth, which I was more inclined to believe yesterday, he still might be bad for the village as the fake seer (just as a cultist is bad for the village).

Vote Lathum

I think we need to go back (similar to NC's Alpha wolf game) to identifying a list of veterans and the probability that hoops would have selected them for the wolf team.

BK lists: BK, Alan, Lathum.

Who else? We can guess there has to be at least one or two vet wolves, right? And wouldn't those be the most damaging to leave hanging around? After watching Alan work the room last game I'd say so.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Maybe you just weren't sure about Lathum or DT, but I found it odd that an active player like you waited all day to make a move one way or the other. Granted, you could have just been waiting for DT to follow through on his hinted reveal to see if he was believable, but I thought it was a weird way to play your vote.

That's fine -- I'm comfortable with that. I think you're right that I didn't have much of a read. I'm fine with putting myself in the camp that tried to save DT based on his reveal and lack of a counter.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I agree with Alan, I see no reason for the BG to come out just to nail a wolf when eventualy it will catch up with DT.

I agree that the BG needs to stay quiet if it isn't DT. If it's a traditional BG, there's a 50% chance the wolves can kill him on any night and then there is no protection for the seer & spy.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mccollins

I think we need to go back (similar to NC's Alpha wolf game) to identifying a list of veterans and the probability that hoops would have selected them for the wolf team.

BK lists: BK, Alan, Lathum.

Who else? We can guess there has to be at least one or two vet wolves, right? And wouldn't those be the most damaging to leave hanging around? After watching Alan work the room last game I'd say so.

Hoops goes way back, and because of which there are quite a few excellent players that haven't played much lately or that some of the newer players aren't familiar with.

I tried to give thoughts yesterday on this subject, but the problem is that I can easily name more than 6 players that have played WW for years here that Hoops could have picked to fill those roles.

[DaddyTorgo]

4 horse race

barkeep (3)
chief rum (2)
lathum (2)
eaglefan (2)

is that correct?

[DaddyTorgo]

going to get some lunch - be back to lay down a vote before my client meeting at 2pm (at which point i will be unavailable till later)

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hoops goes way back, and because of which there are quite a few excellent players that haven't played much lately or that some of the newer players aren't familiar with.

I tried to give thoughts yesterday on this subject, but the problem is that I can easily name more than 6 players that have played WW for years here that Hoops could have picked to fill those roles.

Well, feel free to list whoever you consider really good vets that hoops would have wanted as a wolf.

For now, I know BK is a very strong player that hoops would have considered and it isn't much but he encouraged the run on Lathum yesterday when I think most of us wanted to keep it close to be able to watch the voting patterns:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This movement towards Lathum is very interesting. I think the idea that he would be picked and then made cunning wolf or Poli forcing hoops to pick him are both good ideas. I still think SnDvls is a likely pick, but...

Unvote Sndvls
Vote Lathum

Vote Barkeep

[Telle]

Well now it's going to look like a pile-on, but out of the four choices Barkeep is the one I'm most distrustful of.

VOTE BARKEEP

[DaddyTorgo]

barkeep (5)
lathum, rum, eagle (2 each)

that correct?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

barkeep (5)
lathum, rum, eagle (2 each)

that correct?

Plus oliegirl, Mrs. Schmidty, and saldana with 1 each.

[st.cronin]

That is what I have.

[claphamsa]

hooly ccrap! i freeze through a staff meeting and there is all this.... I was gonna vote BK, until i saw 50 votes in 10 posts!

vote ef

not a solid vote, but it looks like BKs getting run

[SnDvls]

big run on Barkeep there

[EagleFan]

Did I miss something with BK? Is this vote based solely on what if or did he so something to bring on the suspicion?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

VOTE BARKEEP

barkeep is a very smart, analytical player. If there is even a .01% chance I am the real seer I don't see him voting me off unless he is a wolf.


Plus he made the argument that Hoops wouldn't pass on me, ALan, and BK. Well I know I am good and 99% sure Alan is also.

This is a question for both Lathum and Barkeep...

You both equally seem to be pushing the whole 1 of the 3 (Alan, BK, Lathum) isn't like the others approach in stating that no way Hoops passes up on all three.. In fact both of you have given it for a reason for a vote at least once even...

Hypothetically speaking, what would your response be if the other ended up being lynched and wasn't a wolf.. Since you've pushed for this theory (in BK's case 2 days) and now you suddenly see either BK or Lathum now lynched and turn up good along with me being good.. What defense do you use when alot of people suddenly want to use your own strategy against you and come after you as the only member of the 3 left not verified as good?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Did I miss something with BK? Is this vote based solely on what if or did he so something to bring on the suspicion?

For me it's just a gut instinct. And I don't have much for the other candidates although I'm still slightly suspicious of Lathum but not enough to vote for the potential seer again. I just wish I had been vote #3 instead of #5

[DaddyTorgo]

big nasty run on BK. As for me, unless i change my mind after I duck out here again to nibble on something before my meeting (i didn't feel like a huge lunch for some reason)

VOTE LATHUM

[Telle]

Votes as of post 1089:

5 - Barkeep - Lathum (1052), PackerFanatic (1068), oliegirl (1072), mccollins (1079), Telle (1080)
3 - EagleFan - Chief Rum (1000), SnDvls (1069), claphasma (1084)
3 - Lathum - Danny (1015), Barkeep (1040), DaddyTorgo (1089)
2 - Chief Rum - LoneStarGirl (939), Render (1038)
1 - oliegirl - EagleFan (943)
1 - Mrs. Schmidty - Passacaglia (1035)
1 - saldana - Alan T (1044)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

big nasty run on BK. As for me, unless i change my mind after I duck out here again to nibble on something before my meeting (i didn't feel like a huge lunch for some reason)

VOTE LATHUM

DT, out of curiosity why should we believe your reveal but not believe Lathum's reveal from yesterday?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

DT, out of curiosity why should we believe your reveal but not believe Lathum's reveal from yesterday?

Also for DT... if your vote is because of the nasty run on BK, why didn't you put your vote anywhere that actually could either help BK or at least give another option to BK for the lynch instead of putting a second person with 3 votes?

[GoldenEagle]

In my opinion, this run on Barkeep is not justified. What is the reasoning for this? He has been quiet this game. Is that the only reason? There were four straight votes on Barkeep and 5 out of 6. I am not sure what I make out of that.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

hooly ccrap! i freeze through a staff meeting and there is all this.... I was gonna vote BK, until i saw 50 votes in 10 posts!

vote ef

not a solid vote, but it looks like BKs getting run

Your only explanation for voting for EagleFan is because Barkeep is getting piled on to? Are you just trying to stop the bleeding and if so, why?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Also for DT... if your vote is because of the nasty run on BK, why didn't you put your vote anywhere that actually could either help BK or at least give another option to BK for the lynch instead of putting a second person with 3 votes?

because i know who i am, but kwhit's analysis of lathum just has too much logic to it for me to ignore.

as for why i put my vote where i did - of all people you shouldn't have to ask that question

[claphamsa]

my explanation for voting for EF is this, 3 people are pinging me (not that means alot, since i was sure Kwhitt was bad) they are Danny EF and BK. Danny has no votes, so nothign happenign there, BK just had a wild run on him, so EF was the obvious choise. as i said , its not a set vote, but i have to vote for someone

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's fine -- I'm comfortable with that. I think you're right that I didn't have much of a read. I'm fine with putting myself in the camp that tried to save DT based on his reveal and lack of a counter.

Pass.

Tell me the incentive for the BG to counter DT's reveal

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

because i know who i am, but kwhit's analysis of lathum just has too much logic to it for me to ignore.

as for why i put my vote where i did - of all people you shouldn't have to ask that question

Don't really like this answer at all. Doesn't help give me much insight at all into your thought processes and you are completely ignoring my opinion from earlier about today's vote on why I felt people shouldn't vote for you or Lathum.

Maybe I should find a different way to get answers out of people.

[DaddyTorgo]

if you think about it for a minute you might realize why i put my vote on lathum.

i also can't deny that kwhit's argument has a certain inherent logical consistency that i find seductive - and kwhit being revealed as vanilla villager means that i am free to do so with significantly less worry.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Pass.

Tell me the incentive for the BG to counter DT's reveal

There won't be another BG revealing (unless it's a fake) because I am the BG. Period.