NFL Betting Dynasty

[albionmoonlight]

I've wondered for a while how good I would be betting NFL games. I have enough sense to know that I am probably not part of that exceedingly small percentage of players good enough to make money at the game. However, it seems so easy sometimes . . .

So I thought that I would keep up a betting dynasty this season with fake money. This is not that scientific. I'll be getting the pointspreads from wherever I find them on the web. And if I miss a week or two, so be it.

And I don't think that I will even be doing much to make this an interesting read (sorry). I am keeping it here primarially so I won't lose it and so that anyone reading it can feel free to comment, tell me where I am screwing up, keep me honest, etc.

I will start with the somewhat random amount of money of 1100 credits, chosen because it seems like enough to get me through at least part of the season before it becomes nothing.

And, without further preamble:

WEEK 1 (point spreads from primelord's post below)

110 Credits: San Diego (-2.5) over Oakland (having watched Aaron Brooks up close for what seems like the last 20 seasons, I bet against him with glee).

110 Credits: St. Louis (+4) over Denver (With the Mike Martz distraction out of the way, St. Louis should be able to put its talent to good use this season).

110 Credits: Philadelphia (-4.5) over Houston (I think that Houston may in fact be that bad this season).

I was tempted to take San Franciso and 8 points over Arizona, but I really have no idea what to expect from Arizona this season. I think that they are going to go 5-11, but that is not really incompatible with beating San Francisco by 14.

[primelord]

I realize you aren't doing this with real money and so you may not be that concerned, but one of the real keys to successful sports betting is line shopping. You can use sbrlines.com to get the lines across a whole bunch of betting sites. Might give you a slightly better indiciation of how you would do if you were doing this for real and taking the time to do some line shopping.

For example this week you could make a bet for San Diego at -2 1/2, St. Louis at +4 is the best I saw, and you can get Philly at -4 1/2.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by primelord

I realize you aren't doing this with real money and so you may not be that concerned, but one of the real keys to successful sports betting is line shopping. You can use sbrlines.com to get the lines across a whole bunch of betting sites. Might give you a slightly better indiciation of how you would do if you were doing this for real and taking the time to do some line shopping.

For example this week you could make a bet for San Diego at -2 1/2, St. Louis at +4 is the best I saw, and you can get Philly at -4 1/2.

Thanks. Though this isn't with real money, I have no reason not to make it as realistic as possible. I'll start using that site (complete with editing the picks above to reflect the lines you noted).

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 1 RESULTS:

Game 1: 110 Credits on San Diego (-2.5) over Oakland. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (San Diego 27--Oakland 0).

Game 2: 110 Credits on St. Louis (+4) over Denver. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (St. Louis 18--Denver 10).

Game 3: 110 Credits on Philadelphia (-4.5) over Houston. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (Philadelphia 24--Houston 10).

WEEK TOTAL: +300

YEARLY TOTAL: +300

BANKROLL REMAINING: 1400

DISCUSSION: Why didn't anyone tell me how easy this was? Based on the results of these three games, I have decided to quit my job and become a professional gambler. I've just taken out a second mortgage and applied for 37 new credit cards. I expect big big things. But don't worry; I won't forget you little people that helped me get to the top. You guys are welcome to come party in my gold plated swimming pool at my suburban Las Vegas estate anytime you want (provided, of course, that you bring at least two hot chicks with you).

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 2 (point spreads from sbrlines.com as of last night)

BEGINNING BANKROLL: 1400 CREDITS

110 Credits: Oakland (+13) over Baltimore (13 points is huge. Having watched everyone all week say that Baltimore is the greatest team in history and Oakland is the worst team in history, I begin to wonder about how much we can tell after just one week. Besides, I've watched Aaron Brooks enough to know that he is, above all else, unpredictable.)

110 Credits: Cleveland (+11) over Cincinnatti (Another instance in which a huge line swayed me. Having watched the Saints and Cleveland last week, I can say that Cleveland was not that bad come the second half. Not 11 points worse than Cincinnatti.).

55 Credits: Minnesota (+1) over Carolina (One site had Minnesota as the favorite in this game by a point. Most had them even, and one gave them a point. I have a feeling that they are going to win this game. John Fox is a great coach, however, so I'm hedging my bet a little here.).

165 Credits: New Orleans (-2) over Green Bay (One of my good friends up here is a Packers fan, so we watched the Packers/Bears game last week. They played some of the worst football that I have ever seen on the professional level.)

[primelord]

I like all of those bets except the NO one. Green Bay certainly looked awful last week, but it was against a great defense and Ahman Green still had 132 yards from scrimmage.

Despite their win I am not very impressed with NO and being on the road I think Green Bay wins this one pretty easily.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by primelord

I like all of those bets except the NO one. Green Bay certainly looked awful last week, but it was against a great defense and Ahman Green still had 132 yards from scrimmage.

Despite their win I am not very impressed with NO and being on the road I think Green Bay wins this one pretty easily.

The two Sunday games I watched last week were Green Bay/Chicago and New Orleans/Cleveland. I may have very well fallen into the Week 1 trap and based too much on what I saw last week. But I just can't forget it.

Also, if the Saints still had Jim Haslett at the helm, this would be a CLASSIC letdown game. Perhaps I am hoping more than knowing that Sean Payton won't let them fall into the same trap. Maybe the lesson here is that I should not bet on the Saints because I can't be objective enough.

Oh--and one more thing. Green Bay beat the Saints by, like, 50 last year. So I don't think that our guys will go in expecting them to be pushovers.

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 2 RESULTS:

Game 1: 110 Credits on Oakland (+13) over Baltimore. Result: LOSE 110 CREDITS (Baltimore 28--Oakland 6)

Game 2: 110 Credits on Cleveland (+11) over Cincinnatti. Result: LOSE 110 CREDITS (Cincinnati 34--Cleveland 17).

Game 3: 55 Credits on Minnesota (+1) over Carolina. Result: WIN 50 Credits (Minnesota 16--Carolina 13).

Game 4: 165 Credits on New Orleans (-2) over Green Bay. Result: WIN 150 CREDITS (Saints 34--Green Bay 27).

WEEK TOTAL: -20

YEARLY TOTAL: +280

BANKROLL REMAINING: 1380

DISCUSSION: I got lucky this week. Could have ended up in a deeper hole after Carolina/Minnesota went to overtime. However, I had a sense that the game would be close. Where I really screwed up was getting seduced by the big lines. I still think that 13 points is huge in the NFL. And felt REALLY good about that game after I saw the sports guy bet on Baltimore while saying something like "they can't set this line high enough." Seemed like the perfect bettor trap game. I guess that it was; but I was the prey.

I have heard people say that you should not bet on the underdog unless you think that they have a chance to win outright. I didn't really think that Oakland or Cleveland had a chance to win. I just figured that they could keep it within 10 points. That burned me both times. I'll see what happens next week, but I may have to check myself before I start to bet on big pretty numbers.

Another thing that occurs to me after two weeks: I am not watching nearly as much football as I used to. It used to be that the late game and the Sunday and Monday night games were givens for me. Now, I will watch the Saints. But that will be the only game that I watch this week. Don't even know if I will put on Steelers/Jax. I will be asleep before it is over, so what is the point? One thing that I would do if I were betting real money on this would be to watch more football. However, I seem to be drifting away from the NFL a bit, and I am not going to make myself watch it unless I feel like it. There are just too many other things that I want to do during my short free time.

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 3 (point spreads from sbrlines.com)

BEGINNING BANKROLL: 1380 CREDITS

220 Credits: Pittsburgh (-2) over Cincinnatti (I still don't think that Cincinnatti is all that. And Pittsburgh is too proud not to come out swinging after Monday's ass kicking in Jacksonville)

110 Credits: St. Louis (+4.5) over Arizona (I think that St. Louis will win this game. Taking 4.5 points is just gravy. Orlando Pace's injury worries me, but I still think that the offense can get on track).

110 Credits: Philadephia (-6) over San Francisco (Much like their keystone neighbors, the brother lovers will want to take out a Week 2 embarassment on their Week 3 opponent.)

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 3 RESULTS:

Game 1: 220 Credits on Pittsburgh (-2) over Cincinnatti. Result: LOSE 220 CREDITS (Cincinnatti 28--Pittsburgh 20).

Game 2: 110 Credits on St. Louis (+4.5) over Arizona. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (St. Louis 16--Arizona 14).

Game 3: 110 Credits on Philadelphia (-6) over San Francisco. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (Philadelphia 38--San Francisco 24).

WEEK TOTAL: -20

YEAR TOTAL: +260

BANKROLL REMAINING: 1360

DISCUSSION: We learned several things this week. Apparently, it is better to suffer a knee injury in the last game of the season than a motorcycle accident during the offseason. I've also learned to stop betting against Cincinnatti. I caught them playing this week, and they look good. If I had to pick one player with whom to start an NFL team right now, taking both age and ability into account, I would pick Palmer.

St. Louis won a sloppy game. But that defense scares me now. Had Arizona not shot itself in the foot several times, they would have put up 25+ points.

I think that next week, I may make a few more bets. This is the time of year when you start seeing teams pull apart, but can still (pretend to) have insights that the general public does not have. I imagine that this gets less interesting late in the year when you are looking at matchups like the 12-2 Eagles hosting the 2-12 Titans. At that point, whether or not the spread is beaten would seem to be more a function of luck than of anything else.

Also, I may start betting on a few underdogs to win outright. Does anyone know if that is a sucker bet compared to point spread bets? Do the increased odds make up for the lack of points?

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 4 (point spreads and money lines from sbrlines.com as of last night)

BEGINNING BANKROLL: 1360 CREDITS

110 Credits: San Diego (-2.5) over Baltimore (Steve McNair is one of my favorite players. But I just don't see him doing ANYTHING against that San Diego defense.)

110 Credits: Minnesota (+1.5) over Buffalo (This one could go either way. Both teams looked pretty good in losing last week. Of course, Buffalo looked good in losing to the Jets, and Minnesota looked good in losing to one of the three best teams in the league.)

100 Credits: New Orleans (ML +295) over Carolina (Carolina is not as bad as their record shows. They still have the coach and players who most people thought were going to the Super Bowl. But having watched New Orleans for three games now, I can say that it is not all smoke and mirrors. They are for real. This money line is out of wack and I want to take advantage. (What's that they say about betting on your favorite team? That you should do it often because you can be so objective? Cool. They I am doing just what they say.))

110 Credits: Houston (+4) over Miami (David Carr is a better quarterback than Daunte Culpepper? I think so. Weird world in which we live. On a related note, good thing that Nick Saban was hesitant to get Drew Brees because of his shoulder injury. I'd hate to see the Dolphins right now with a bad quarterback. Looks like NFL talent evaluation involves more than getting the guys rated ***** by rivals.com to come to your campus. Who knew?)

110 Credits: Jacksonville (-2.5) over Washington (So whenever Mark Brunell sets an NFL passing record, the Redskins win. Great. Good to see that they found a solution to all of their problems out there.)

110 Credits: Cleveland (-2) over Oakland (Only 2 points? Am I missing something? This is the same Oakland that already had people talking about 0-16 after 2 weeks, right?)

110 Credits: Philadelphia (-10.5) over Green Bay (I see this going one of two ways. Either Philadephia wins by 20+, or Green Bay wins. I think that the former will happen. Though I suppose that if I were a real gambler, I'd take the latter, right? Green Bay's money line gives me better odds than I think it should. Which raises a question. Should I always bet on the outcome that I think is going to happen, or should I bet on the outcome that gives me better odds than I think that it should--even if I think that it is not likely to happen?)

100 Credits: San Francisco (ML +293) over Kansas City (In Herm Edwards I trust. Also, Vernon Davis had yet to become a part of that offense, so losing him won't matter as much as people think. Gore's injury worries me a bit, but it looks like he is going to play.)

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 4 RESULTS:

Game 1: 110 Credits on San Diego (-2.5) over Baltimore. Result: LOSE 110 CREDITS (Baltimore 16--San Diego 13) (Damn you Marty. Damn you to heck).

Game 2: 110 Credits on Minnesota (+1.5) over Buffalo. Result: LOSE 110 CREDITS (Buffalo 17- Minnesota 12) (I said above that this could go either way, but I actually expected Minnesota to win pretty easily. Part of the problem is that the Jets were better than I thought, and part of the problem is that Losman is turning into the QB that Buffalo thought that they were getting a few years ago).

Game 3: 100 Credits on New Orleans (ML +295) over Carolina. Result: LOSE 100 CREDITS (Carolina 21--New Orleans 18) (Had I taken the points, I would have won. I watched this game, and the teams both played well. The difference in the score was the difference between a team that has been to the Super Bowl and knows how to close out a game, and an up and coming team with rookie players and a rookie head coach. Carolina made the plays (on both sides of the ball) that they needed to make to win.)

Game 4: 110 Credits on Houston (+4) over Miami. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (Houston 17--Miami 15). (Finally something in the win column. Did anyone expect Miami to be this bad this season? Nick Saban must be ready to kill himself. He does not strike me as a guy who takes well to losing. At all.)

Game 5: 110 Credits on Jacksonville (-2.5) over Washington. Result: LOSE 110 CREDITS (Washington 36--Jacksonville 30). (Now Washington becomes a hard team on which to bet. Mark Brunell will not keep this up all season. But you just won't know when he's going to tank. Very risky there, IMO).

Game 6: 110 Credits on Cleveland (-2) over Oakland. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (Cleveland 24--Oakland 21). (This game was SO much closer than it had a right to be. I can't beleive I was 1 point away from not winning this bet).

Game 7: 110 Credits on Philadelphia (-10.5) over Green Bay. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (Philadelphia 31--Green Bay 9). (Glad that Monday Night Magic could not save Favre).

Game 8: 100 Credits on San Francisco (ML +293) over Kansas City. Result: LOSE 100 CREDITS (Kansas City 41--San Francisco 0). (No comment).

WEEK TOTAL: -230

YEAR TOTAL: +60

BANKROLL REMAINING: 1160

DISCUSSION: We might be starting to learn why it was smart for me to do this with fake credits rather than real money.

[John Galt]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Why didn't anyone tell me how easy this was? Based on the results of these three games, I have decided to quit my job and become a professional gambler. I've just taken out a second mortgage and applied for 37 new credit cards. I expect big big things. But don't worry; I won't forget you little people that helped me get to the top. You guys are welcome to come party in my gold plated swimming pool at my suburban Las Vegas estate anytime you want (provided, of course, that you bring at least two hot chicks with you).

This is almost as a bad of a jinx as the one jbmagic put on the Raiders. Good thing you kept your day job.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by John Galt

This is almost as a bad of a jinx as the one jbmagic put on the Raiders. Good thing you kept your day job.

I'm just thanking God that the gold plated swimming pool guy didn't require a deposit.

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 5 (point spreads and money lines from sbrlines.com as of last night)

BEGINNING BANKROLL: 1160 CREDITS

First, a small confession. I realized the other day that I have not been doing this quite right. I thought that all line bets were made with a standard -110 ratio. Turns out that the ratio can vary. (I know, you probably already knew this. Have I mentioned before that I am happy not to be doing this with real money?) Anyway, I will be using the correct numbers going forward.

210 Credits to Win 200: Washington (+5) over New York Giants (It think that the Giants might actually be pretty bad. It will just take us 8 weeks to figure that out.)

116 Credits to win 100 Credits: Green Bay (+3) over St. Louis (The Packers seem to be getting it together. Don't let Philadelphia kicking their ass distract you. Philadelphia is really good.)

100 Credits to win 100 Credits: New England (-9.5) over Miami (9.5 is a lot of points. But Miami is a lot of suck.)

105 Credits to win 100 Credits: Carolina (-7.5) over Cleveland (Carolina looked really good last week. I think that they kept the Saints in the game last week, and it almost bit them in the ass. That got their attention. I think that they keep Cleveland two touchdowns out of it for most of the game.)

100 Credits to win 100 Credits: San Francisco (-3.5) over Oakland
(
IF Team = "Oakland"
THEN Bet = "Against"
END IF
)

105 Credits to win 100 Credits: Philadelphia (-1) over Dallas (I hate to have any interest in the T.O. Drama, but I think that Philadelphia is really shortchanged by this line.)

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 5 RESULTS:

Game 1: 210 Credits on Washington (+5) over New York Giants. Result: LOSE 210 CREDITS (New York 19--Washington 3) (The Giants are unpredictable. I still think that they will finish under .500, but they do have the talent to win any game in which they compete.).

Game 2: 116 Credits on Green Bay (+3) over St. Louis. Result: PUSH(St. Louis 23 - Green Bay 20) (Heartbreaking Loss for Green Bay. I, personally, am glad that I took the -116 in order to get 3 points instead of 2.5.).

Game 3: 100 Credits on New England (-9.5) over Miami. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS(New England 20--Miami 10) (Culpepper's shoulder hurts. Right. That's why he was benched. Too bad Saban doesn't have a good QB like Drew Brees. He could really go places with a signal caller like that. Of course, he'd have to give up a king's ransom to trade for a guy like that. You can't just pick up someone like that as a free agent.)

Game 4: 105 Credits on Carolina (-7.5) over Cleveland. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (Carolina 20--Cleveland 12). (I'll take it. Sometimes you get the bear.).

Game 5: 100 Credits on San Francisco (-3.5) over Oakland. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (San Francisco 34--Oakland 20). (The lines on Oakland are going to be interesting to watch going forward. How high will they have to be to get money bet on them?).

Game 6: 105 Credits on Philadelphia (-1) over Dallas. Result: WIN 100 CREDITS (Philadelphia 38--Dallas 24). (I am not looking forward to the Saints having to play the Eagles. It will not be pretty. We are good, but we are not NFC Championship caliber, and the Eagles are.).

WEEK TOTAL: +190

YEAR TOTAL: +250

BANKROLL REMAINING: 1350

DISCUSSION: Little bit of a comeback. Goes to show, though. The one game that I knew was going to be a winner was Redskins-Giants. And it wasn't even close. Guess those Vegas guys know what they are doing.

That said, I am glad after 5 weeks to still be above water. Lots of people claim to be able to make predictions well, beat the system, etc. And, while I realize that I totally could never do this for a living (and may not even come out of this season with my 1100 Credits intact), it is nice to not have blown my wad before the season was 1/4 done.

[albionmoonlight]

WEEK 6 (point spreads from sbrlines.com)

BEGINNING BANKROLL: 1350 CREDITS

120 Credits to Win 100: St. Louis (+3.5) over Seattle (No Alexander; I think that I'll take the Rams.)

108 Credits to win 100 Credits: Buffalo (even) over Detroit (Detroit is at home, but they are still Detroit.)

100 Credits on Carolina (ML +147) over Baltimore (Carolina has been a different team since Steve Smith came back.)

105 Credits to win 100 on the over (36): Denver & Oakland. (Trying something different.)