Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

[JPhillips]

Here's today's(12/30) RCP averages:

Romney - 21.6
Paul - 21.2
Santorum - 14.0
Gingrich - 14.0
Perry - 11.8
Bachmann - 8.6
Huntsman - 2.6


All predictions must be in before Tuesday(1/3).

[JPhillips]

I think it's going to be a big surprise due to the very small percentage of the population that participates. My order is:

Paul
Santorum
Romney
Perry
Bachmann
Gingrich
Huntsman

[rowech]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think it's going to be a big surprise due to the very small percentage of the population that participates. My order is:

Paul
Santorum
Romney
Perry
Bachmann
Gingrich
Huntsman

I think you're right on in Paul surprising and winning. I tend to think the polling has it right except the top two being flipped and Gingrich coming out ahead of Santorum.

[QuikSand]

Since I just played this game with friends, here's mine with percentages and a prediction for the day-after headline:

Paul 29
Romney 23
Santorum 16
Gingrich 11
Perry 9
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 3

Headline: Really? Rick Santorum? Really???

[JPhillips]

I think Santorum is going to outperform his polling. He's got a lot of evangelical support(perhaps for a commitment for one million dollars) and those voters will show up no matter what. Gingrich has no organization and Romney doesn't have the most committed voters.

NH will go easily to Romney and the real races will be FL and SC.

[tarcone]

Paul
Romney
Perry
Santorum
Gingrich
Bachmann
Huntsman

It will be close between Paul and Romney.

[Solecismic]

This is an odd one, because campaigns pretty much buy the votes, and the scene can change rapidly.

Ron Paul (after which his candidacy will be destroyed in the press)
Mitt Romney (after which he will not lose another vote until November)
Rick Perry (after which he will announce that Katy Perry is his love child)
Rick Santorum (he will be out of the race by mid-January)
Newt Gingrich (this 5th-place finish will crush the Democrats, temporarily)
Michelle Bachmann (she will also drop out within a couple of weeks)
John Huntsman (after which he will claim that Iowa isn't a real state)

[Easy Mac]

I refuse to acknowledge Iowa until they change the name to the Iowa Cauci, for branding purposes.

[sterlingice]

I really don't have a good read on this.

It seems like one possible scenario is that Romney blitzes the state the last couple of days in person and with ads. He wins and then the long, drawn out battle the Dems were hoping for is pretty much squashed.

I just can't see Paul winning. Sure the numbers have him up, but- really, does anyone see him winning? I guess it's possible and it gives him a few days of free media publicity but it would be like Dennis Kucinich winning a couple of elections ago- it never would have gone anywhere. If you're Obama, this is the direction you hope for.

Now that everyone else has risen and fallen, is it Santorum's turn to get the Anyone-but-Romney-Flavor-of-the-Month bump? And does it come in time for him to climb from way back towards the top? I know there's low turnout and Fox News will do anything to blitz support for, again, anyone-but-Romney but will that be enough?

I guess the easy money is on it going Romney-Paul-Santorum but there are still so many balls in the air with only a couple of days to go.

SI

[JPhillips]

The Des Moines Register poll is out. From TalkingPoints Memo:

The highly respected and eagerly awaited Des Moines Register/Selzer poll just came out. It has the top three Romney 24%, Paul 22% and Santorum 15%. That’s more or less in line with recent polls. The current TPM Poll Average (pre-DMR data) is Romney 22%, Paul 17% and Santorum 16%.

But the write-up adds this bit of detail …

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

[Jas_lov]

The latest PPP poll-

Paul 20
Romney 19
Santorum 18
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Bachmann 8
Huntsman 4
Roemer 2


Santorum clearly peaked at the right time. Paul peaked a week too early but it looks like any of the top 3 could win this. If Romney wins I think it'll be over pretty quick. I don't see him losing in NH, maybe he loses SC, but then he'll just win in FL and NV. Paul needs non-Republicans and young people to actually show up at the caucuses. I think Paul has a better chance to do well in NH than Santorum so I'd like to see Paul win IA just to make it somewhat interesting.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Don't count Tebow out.

[Crapshoot]

The question is - will the Paulites show up and register as republicans? I think the polling may be slightly underestimating that. I think Romney pulls it out, but admittedly rooting for a brokered convention - this is fun.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think it's going to be a big surprise due to the very small percentage of the population that participates. My order is:

Paul
Santorum
Romney
Perry
Bachmann
Gingrich
Huntsman

A friend of mine, who is in politics, also thinks that Santorum will end up in second with a lot of momentum.

[larrymcg421]

I think the momentum will end up giving Santorum the victory as other not Romney voters continue to coalesce around him.

Santorum
Romney
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachmann
Huntsman

[RainMaker]

This is my order. In fact, I think Romney wins by a solid 5 points.

Romney
Santorum
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachmann
Huntsman

Rooting for Paul to make things interesting. And Santorum for comedy sake.

[Jon]

I'm a little late, but I think it will be:

Paul
Santorum
Perry
Romney
Gingrich
Bachman

Very close to each other in terms of percentages.
I

[Julio Riddols]

What does everyone think about the vote count being moved to a secret location?

[JediKooter]

Romney
Paul
Santorum
A Pizza
Perry
Gingrich
A Rock
Bachman

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

What does everyone think about the vote count being moved to a secret location?

Sounds good for Romney

[Jas_lov]

Paul and Romney tied at 24% in the early results. Santorum at 18%.

[JPhillips]

Now the question is whether the 50% that didn't pick Paul or Romney fall in line or consolidate around one of the conservatives. SC and FL should be very interesting.

[Jas_lov]

Google Politics & Elections

Google has a nice map of the county results but it doesn't give the overall reporting percentage. Paul dominating where the state universities are. I'd really like to see Mitt finish 3rd and Paul 1st to see if Paul can close the gap in NH.

[cartman]

Wasn't expecting Santorum to do so well in Iowa. Basically a tie between him, Romney and Paul. Will be interesting to see how the results get parsed in the coming days.

[JPhillips]

Nearly sixty percent in and Paul looks like he'll settle in at third, but within a couple of points of Santorum/Romney.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by cartman

Wasn't expecting Santorum to do so well in Iowa. Basically a tie between him, Romney and Paul. Will be interesting to see how the results get parsed in the coming days.

Again, he was due the "Anyone but Romney" bump and as support eroded away from Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich, it had to go somewhere.

SI

[molson]

I'm going to have to Google this Santorum guy to learn more about him.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm going to have to Google this Santorum guy to learn more about him.

SI

[cartman]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Again, he was due the "Anyone but Romney" bump and as support eroded away from Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich, it had to go somewhere.

SI

Looks like 'None of the above' did pretty well. In the 2008 caucus there were over 130K votes in the Republican caucus. This year there were just over 110K.

[cartman]

Dola,

Saw this elsewhere about the Media $s spent per Iowa caucus vote:

Santorum $1.65
Bachmann $8
Romney $113.07
Gingrich $139
Paul $227
Perry $817

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by cartman

Dola,

Saw this elsewhere about the Media $s spent per Iowa caucus vote:

Santorum $1.65
Bachmann $8
Romney $113.07
Gingrich $139
Paul $227
Perry $817

I was visiting my wife's family in Iowa over Christmas and there was a Rick Perry ad during every commercial break. Ron Paul ads were next and Romney was 3rd.

That said, there's something to be said for marginal dollars spent and who had dollars to spend (kindof like the Yankees pay more for a win than the Royals because they can argument).

SI

[stevew]

I can't believe 20% of any assembly of people feel that Santorum was the most qualified candidate.

[Swaggs]

I wonder who, if anyone drops out ("suspends" their campaign), after Iowa. Romney and Paul will stick it out to the end, I suspect. Santorum should have some momentum going forward, and who knows if Newt even cares how he does at the polls. Huntsman still seems like he is in it, but can't get any traction. Seems like Perry and Bachmann are dead in the water, as Gingrich and Santorum share most of their ideology and are now more serious candidates.

If Perry and Bachmann both drop out, that percentage of the vote will likely consolidate with Newt or Santorum. Newt's post caucus speech seems to indicate that he is going to play nice with Santorum and continue to headhunt Romney and Paul.

This is the first time that I have actually considered that Romney may not get the bid, as I am just coming around to the realization that there is a very significant portion of GOP voters that just will not vote for him.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I think the momentum will end up giving Santorum the victory as other not Romney voters continue to coalesce around him.

Santorum
Romney
Paul
Gingrich
Perry
Bachmann
Huntsman

Hoping Santorum can cling to his lead here, because if so, then I called it exactly right.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by stevew

I can't believe 20% of any assembly of people feel that Santorum was the most qualified candidate.

They're Republican primary voters. 'Nuff said.

[larrymcg421]

BTW, I think it is clear now that the biggest gaffe in this campaign so far is not Gingrich, Perry, Cain, or Bachmann. It is Tim Pawlenty's decision to end his campaign so early. I mean he dropped out over a straw poll defeat where the winner is now about to finish 6th in the same state's official caucus.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I wonder who, if anyone drops out ("suspends" their campaign), after Iowa. Romney and Paul will stick it out to the end, I suspect. Santorum should have some momentum going forward, and who knows if Newt even cares how he does at the polls. Huntsman still seems like he is in it, but can't get any traction. Seems like Perry and Bachmann are dead in the water, as Gingrich and Santorum share most of their ideology and are now more serious candidates.

If Perry and Bachmann both drop out, that percentage of the vote will likely consolidate with Newt or Santorum. Newt's post caucus speech seems to indicate that he is going to play nice with Santorum and continue to headhunt Romney and Paul.

This is the first time that I have actually considered that Romney may not get the bid, as I am just coming around to the realization that there is a very significant portion of GOP voters that just will not vote for him.

He's a slimy little slimeball. As someone who worked for a long time with the WV Republican party in the legislature, I knew the people there, and I remember CNN article saying that WV Repubs had thrown their delegate support behind Mike Huckabee in a shocking fashion, and I looked at the video of the ceremony and press conference, and I saw all of the folks up there on the stage and I knew, they detected Romney's slimeball nature too, and went elsewhere. He's just got something off, and I'd rather vote for Anyone than Romney, except for Michele, who;s as loony as Christine but twice an dangerous politically

[larrymcg421]

Santorum 29,662 24.6%
Romney 29,657 24.6%

That's right. Santorum has a 5 vote lead right now. Crazy.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

BTW, I think it is clear now that the biggest gaffe in this campaign so far is not Gingrich, Perry, Cain, or Bachmann. It is Tim Pawlenty's decision to end his campaign so early. I mean he dropped out over a straw poll defeat where the winner is now about to finish 6th in the same state's official caucus.

I have to agree with you. Pawlenty would have had his turn in the spotlight right about now.

This is definitely a good result for Romney, though. Just to hold serve in a caucus shows there's some agreement that he has less negatives than the others.

Obama, however, has to be cheering the loudest right now.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

This is the first time that I have actually considered that Romney may not get the bid, as I am just coming around to the realization that there is a very significant portion of GOP voters that just will not vote for him.

You are putting too much into a few evangelical states. Romney will thrash them in all the other moderate-blue states and should be able to hold his own somewhat in the others. I don't see how he could lose this nomination.

Gingrich is the only one who I thought had a chance lately and I just think there are too many skeletons in that closet for the establishment to take seriously.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Obama, however, has to be cheering the loudest right now.

I don't know, I think Romney is the only one who can beat Obama so I think they'd want a big Santorum win.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know, I think Romney is the only one who can beat Obama so I think they'd want a big Santorum win.

But Santorum can't amass the necessary delegates. He's polling at 4% nationwide and in New Hampshire. He tied Romney in Iowa under ideal circumstances.

(officially, Romney apparently won by 8 votes)

Obama must be delighted because none of the Republicans is capturing all that much attention. He can beat Romney. I don't think he'd have a chance against a strong candidate. He would beat Santorum by much, much more, but it's not realistic to expect Santorum to win the nomination.

[Abe Sargent]

Romney won't beat Obama. None of these Republican candidates would.


The only thing Obama has going against him in this next election is his race. A lot of people voted for him specifically because he had some non-white ancestry, and a lot of people voted against for it too. Ive seen some surveys that suggest those largely cancelled each other out. However, in this election, those who voted against him for it are still likely to, while some of those who voted for him specifically because of it have already "done their good deed," and may not this time.

Obama was a movement, and it will be like that again, although not as strong. The republications have no Goldwaters or Reagans on their list right now. No one is going to ignite the base, get the moderates happy, and become a movement (I know, Goldwater didn't win, but he at least was movement-ish, it wasn't like Bob Dole was bringing out the youth vote or George HW Bush brought out the celebrities).


I suspect some of the stronger candidates are waiting for four years (such as Bobby Jindal)

[Abe Sargent]

There are also some future dark horse candidates for Republicans that I could see later on, like Nikki Haley or Marco Rubio could be on the list for the future.

[Thomkal]

And Bachmann is out. I could have saved her and her followers a lot of money and told her she had no shot at winning the nomination. Has to be considered a totally embarassing and humilating loss for her given its her home state and won the straw poll back in August. I hope she realizes she's not going to be a political leader and doesn't run for re-election and joins Sarah Palin on the book/speaking tour.

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

And Bachmann is out. I could have saved her and her followers a lot of money and told her she had no shot at winning the nomination. Has to be considered a totally embarassing and humilating loss for her given its her home state and won the straw poll back in August. I hope she realizes she's not going to be a political leader and doesn't run for re-election and joins Sarah Palin on the book/speaking tour.

In other surprising news: Lance Bass is gay.

[Thomkal]

Rick Perry staying in the race-announced on twitter just as Bachmann was taking the podium to concede-nice classy move there Rick.

[JediKooter]

Welp, I didn't think she'd last this long, but, I knew she wouldn't last the whole race.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

There are also some future dark horse candidates for Republicans that I could see later on, like Nikki Haley or Marco Rubio could be on the list for the future.

I find it amusing the media and people outside of SC somehow think Haley is the future of the Republican party. Her approval ratings in SC are lower than Obama's.

[bhlloy]

I think Perry should be congratulated for his decision to pump more millions into the advertising industry at this tough economic time. Hey, if I had that much money lying around I'd probably stay in the race too. Who knows, maybe all the relevant candidates will get hit by an asteroid or something.