08-22-2017, 07:08 PM | #401 |
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That's the same Crowder they were going to trade into cap space somewhere so they could sign a better guy to replace him, right?
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08-22-2017, 07:13 PM | #402 |
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08-22-2017, 07:17 PM | #403 | ||
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I'll just say I'm astounded that anyone who's watched the last couple of Finals could think Crowder's a better player than Kyrie. He's good and Irving has his flaws, but it's a short list of guys who are capable of being the kind of playmaker Kyrie is. |
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08-22-2017, 07:17 PM | #404 |
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Per RPM the Cavs get a PG of equal value to Kyrie, they get one of the top 5 SF in the NBA, and they have a legitimate shot at Bagley next draft.
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08-22-2017, 07:18 PM | #405 |
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I like the trade for both teams. Makes the Cavs deeper, and IT isn't much worse than Kyrie defensively. Assuming Brooklyn suck as much as I expect them to, potentially a really solid deal. Kyrie was the best player in the deal too, so I think it works fine for Boston as well, and they clear up the logjam at forward a little.
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08-22-2017, 07:21 PM | #406 | |
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Kyrie's shot over Curry is one for the all-time highlights package, but I don't think I'll ever get the taste of Kyrie repeatedly dribbling the ball off his own feet in traffic in this past finals series out of mouth.
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08-22-2017, 07:22 PM | #407 | |
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Kyrie had the easiest job in the NBA. He played PG on a team with Lebron. The Cavs were outscored by 8 points per 100 possessions with Kyrie on the floor without Lebron. His ORating dropped from 114 with Lebron on the court to 108 without him. RPM had Kyrie as the 12th best PG in the league last year and worth about 8 wins. Crowder was the 5th best SF and worth an estimated 10 wins. That's with a huge improvement by Kyrie over '15-'16 while Crowder was still rated as a top 5 SF last year. Last edited by Atocep : 08-22-2017 at 07:23 PM. |
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08-22-2017, 07:33 PM | #408 | |
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I'll just say that's one of those cases where numbers tell you a lot less than skillset. I love me some metrics, but you have to attach a nose to them. In this case, a big issue is that Cleveland was a much better team in the playoffs than the regular-season. Their regular season was not indicative of how good they are capable of being. Boston was much more driven. It's certainly no compliment to Irving and the rest of the Cavs(sans LeBron who was pretty darn outstanding during the year as well), but it is what it is.
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I'll just say we watched a different series. That did happen, but 38, 40, and 26 in the last three games mostly going iso against an elite defender in Klay while making over half his shots(51%) also happened. That covers some mistakes. I generally agree with your 'good for both teams' analysis. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 08-22-2017 at 07:34 PM. |
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08-22-2017, 07:38 PM | #409 |
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I mean, they had to trade him before the season started, so I'm impressed they went ahead and sent him to Boston. Danny had to do something too, because he's been getting mauled for standing pat - Hayward nothwithstanding - will be interesting to see how this plays out, but NBA is the new baseball WRT so many deadline deals.
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08-22-2017, 07:42 PM | #410 | |
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Kyrie does a lot of great stuff, no question, and I don't doubt he's an excellent player and the best player in the trade. Maybe it will come with age but for me he's still more in the elite punt returner category than he is elite starting QB. Does a lot of great stuff, but causes me to yell at my TV roughly as much as cheer averaged out over the length of a season.
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08-22-2017, 09:01 PM | #411 |
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As a Celts fan I hated the trade at first reaction. We gave up a lot for a very good but maybe not superstar top ten type player for sure. But let's see what Boston did really give up. Zivic could be a special guy but right now he is a just a promising prospect with no NBA experience . Ttough Boston can not risk losing any good rebounders so there is that.
Crowder has been a very solid guy since he was drafted but if we had o choose giving up him, Brown or Smart he would be the guy to go. IT is a more consistent shooting JR Smith who is a tremendously terribly defensive player. There are also concerns he has a chronic injury that is going linger. In the end, Boston would have had to overpay to keep him and. Won't miss him. The Brooklyn pick in a very deep 2018 draft is interesting as it appears Ainge is gambling the East will be bad enough that Brooklyn maybe in the 5-9 range and not a top 3 or 4 pick. They also may be counting on LA being worse this year than Brooklyn in a strong West. If Boston can extend Irving and keep a young core of Brown, Tatum, Horford, Smart, Rozier, Morris and Haywood together with Lebron soon to be 33 this could be a great plan long term in the East. |
08-22-2017, 10:30 PM | #412 |
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The most astounding thing of this whole discussion is Atocep's blind, incorrect assessment of Jae Crowder
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08-22-2017, 10:51 PM | #413 | |
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My assessment is based on data at least. The same data we use to tell us day mind is a top 10-15 player despite averaging 10ppg on 42/31/71 shooting percentages because he rebounds, defends multiple positions, moves the ball, and plays well off of it. Many of the same strengths Crowder has. Boston is now built around a big 3 of Hayward, Hosford, and Kyrie. The best case scenario is Kyrie is a borderline top 20 guy and that's largely ignoring 3 years of advanced stats and not accounting for the fact that he was a rather average starter without LeBron on the court while shooting at a higher rate than Kobe at his most selfish. The other 2 in their big 3 aren't top 20. So Boston is going all in on a PG that has no history if making players around him better and has similar defensive limitations as the guy he's replacing. Cleveland is better equipped to defend the Warriors now and get a year to see if LeBron wants to stay. If not they likely have a high lottery pick and one of the most tradable assets in the league in Crowder with his contract. |
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08-23-2017, 07:07 AM | #414 |
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I get that Crowder is better than i will give him credit for. But for all that prowess on D, LeBron averaged 29/7/7 in the ECF vs the Celts and shot something like 58% from the floor. That doesn't inspire confidence in me. Also IT has a hip, and who knows when he will be 100%
Doesn't IT also have a reputation of being a pretty unlikeable guy? I do like watching him in the 4th quarter cause he is definitely must see TV. I'm not even sure what kind of lineups the Cavs will be throwing out there this year. I don't think it got us anywhere closer to beating GS. And now we'll have a much harder time getting by Boston in the ECF. Pretty solid chance Kyrie leads the league in scoring this year as well. |
08-23-2017, 11:34 AM | #415 | |||
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Crowder (35 postseason games): 10.4 PPG, 40.8% FG, 32.2% 3P Kyrie (52 games): 23.9 PPG, 46.5% FG, 41.5% 3P Quote:
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Last edited by Arles : 08-23-2017 at 11:35 AM. |
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08-23-2017, 12:46 PM | #416 |
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Pretty good 538 article about the Celtics-Cavs trade...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ey-insured-it/
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08-23-2017, 02:54 PM | #417 | |
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At no point did I make an argument regarding Amir Johnson and specifically trying to cherry pick outliers weakens your argument, not mine. Amir Johnson was an incredibly valuable guy for 20 minutes a night. That's what rpm tells me about him. I do believe rpm and other advanced stats overrate Crowder somewhat, but I stand by what I've said about Kyrie. He's been an average starting PG throughout his career without LeBron on the court and nothing in his skillset improves the players around him. It's going to be very interesting to see how he fits into Stevens system in Boston. With Cleveland's roster I'd much rather have Crowder on that contract with Thomas and a top 5 pick than Kyrie. Kyrie was outplayed by Dellavedova 2 years ago through the regular season before Kyrie decided to put in some effort during the playoffs. Last year Kyrie improved his efforts during the regular season but still wasn't a top 10 point guard let alone top 20 player. Any bets on Kyrie assume he's suddenly going to change his ways and become a better player in a more difficult situation. |
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08-24-2017, 09:18 PM | #418 | |
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Basically I think this is the best Cleveland could have done within their parameters, but it's still a worthwhile gamble for the Celtics. It's frustrating to help the team we lost to in the ECF get better this year (assuming IT is healthy), and it's the 2nd trade in a row (Fultz/Tatum) I thought the other team won the margins of the pick protection game, but I think this aligns the timelines of the roster except for Horford, and if it doesn't work Kyrie is still tradeable next summer, extension or not. Overall, the gambles are that - Isaiah will not be worth his next contract. Even if the hip injury is not a problem this year his market next summer is very interesting. Something along the lines of the Kyle Lowry 3 year/$90m deal is my best guess, but maybe he will push for the max, maybe he will take a $$$ discount to get 5 years. But all the reasons people were pointing out the Celtics had a big decision to make on re-signing him now move over to Cleveland. - The Nets will be somewhat better in an East with a lot of tanking/bad teams. Hawks/Pacers/Bulls will all fall into that 20s win range, and presumably 1-2 West teams will pivot that way as it becomes obvious they can't make the top 8. I dislike not putting any protections on the pick (especially because this draft has 5-6 players I like, and is the rare draft that looks like it'll have multiple high ceiling bigs, even if both Bagley and Ayton have some flaws), but especially with a healthy Lin the Nets look like they at least go 8 deep with legitimate NBA players, as opposed to last year when I counted 3 at the start of the season. - Jae Crowder is more valuable to Cleveland than us. Good player (I'd put him around 15-20th best SF in the league) on a nice contract, but there's 2 Jae Crowder's. The one who plays with a chip on his shoulder, attacks the basket off the dribble and plays good D, and the one who thought he was better than he is last year, fell in love with shooting contested jumpers early in the shot clock and got salty when Boston fans cheered for Gordon Hayward. Even though Hayward is (markedly) better, I think there would've been a way to make those two fit... but then you include all the PT we'll be giving Brown & Tatum who aren't as good as Crowder just yet but have higher ceilings (and cheaper contracts fwiw), and throw in Markieff Morris who is another solid rotational wing, and even Marcus Smart who can play some 3 (or play the 2 & push Hayward to the 3 if you prefer the nomenclature). I wouldn't have blamed him since he is a legit starting SF, but it had the makings of Crowder sulking. - And of course, the biggest gamble of all... that Kyrie can be better than he showed in Cleveland. It doesn't warm my heart to hope that a 25 year old who's been on a championship contender will finally give full effort, but clearly he's had chemistry issues with LeBron, and that team hasn't had a great system in place when LeBron isn't in the game. While I think he was as bad as IT at defense, Kyrie is longer, more athletic, and we've seen him play some average/below-average D at times in the playoffs. Will being in an organization and place he feels more comfortable lead to higher effort there? Offensively, there's no better creator or shot maker than Kyrie, and his shooting percentages aren't any less than IT, but IT was more efficient because he got to the FT line twice as much. If Stevens can get Kyrie to play to contact a bit more, or to buy into the motion offense and attack off the catch instead of iso dribbling he could pretty easily average 30ppg at higher efficiency like IT did. It's the biggest gamble in the trade imo because that & Kyrie re-signing is the only way the Celtics "win" the trade long term, but the list of perimeter players who improve offensively under Stevens is fairly long at this point. (Might as well mention Zizic too, since I have liked him as a prospect. I still think he can be good, but his Summer League performance was very disappointing defensively, and though that isn't a dealbreaker for a kid as young as him, it did show that we weren't going to be able to count on him for any significant minutes this season.) |
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08-24-2017, 10:15 PM | #419 | ||||||
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I accept this trade from a business standpoint, but IT was everything I'd want as a competitor and an absolute joy to watch. Quote:
(Also, Hayward is a borderline top 20 player.) |
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08-24-2017, 10:23 PM | #420 | |
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I don't know. That package is much better than what the Wolves gave up. I know they love Dunn but I think they'd be happy taking that Nets pick. From what I've read the Nets pick was not on the table without protections. |
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08-24-2017, 11:54 PM | #421 | |
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Not you specifically, but I get the feeling a lot of people think the Nets 2018 pick is a guaranteed top 5 pick, and while I don't think they're a playoff team I think there's a better chance the pick ends up in the 6-10 range. (Though fwiw I also thought the Nets wouldn't finish dead last last season, so we'll see.) But they were a frisky team once Lin came back to finish last season, added a couple NBA rotation players like Crabbe instead of using their cap space for a complete salary dump + draft picks, and Levert/RHJ were decent as rookies and should be better as 2nd year players. |
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08-25-2017, 01:15 AM | #422 |
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Only way Nets aren't awful is if Russell ends up being considerably better than expected IMO. They've got a couple of rotation guys, but I don't see them being able to consistently put points on the board.
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08-25-2017, 02:59 AM | #423 | |
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I think this is pretty spot on, and likely the largest reason Ainge was willing to deal the pick. The biggest reason honestly is that they have no reason to tank anymore, while other teams do. I agree that those who think it's a guaranteed top 5 pick are going to be surprised. They're in the worse conference, played much better in the second half last year, added talent, and have absolutely no motivation to be bad anymore. |
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08-25-2017, 01:07 PM | #424 |
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With Atkinson's system & their perimeter talent I think they'll score, and weirdly for this year I actually think the other guy they got in that Lakers deal could have the bigger impact on their record. The question is what do they do down low - do you run some hilariously small lineups with Booker essentially as the 5, or do you actually play Mozgov & try to fit him in the system or play at a slower pace? Or will they give a lot of minutes to Jarrett Allen & Aleksander Valenkov, who I know little about but very much doubt are ready.
Last edited by BishopMVP : 08-25-2017 at 01:08 PM. |
08-25-2017, 03:37 PM | #425 |
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It also sounds like Cleveland was asking for Jayson Tatum too! on top of everything else they got and Ainge balked at that (Thank God)
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08-26-2017, 10:21 AM | #426 |
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So looks like Cleveland is going to try to re open negotiations to ask for more in the trade from Boston supposedly because they gave co CERN's about IT healing fast enough. Boston would be stupid to give them anything other than their own first rounder in 2018 or a couple of second rounders. They knew IT was injured and the real haul is crowder and that Nets pick.
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08-26-2017, 10:27 AM | #427 |
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I dunno how you do the trade in any form if IT is really really injured and misses half the season.
Thank god we had the sense not to waive the medicals. Last edited by stevew : 08-26-2017 at 10:28 AM. |
08-26-2017, 01:03 PM | #428 |
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Why would that have even been an option? IT's hip injury wasn't exactly a secret & the Celtics are also definitely going to do their due diligence on Kyrie later today given how many games he's missed.
I guess I'd give up one of our own 1sts too, but it's not like all the leverage is on Cleveland's side here - IT & Jae won't be thrilled to be back in Boston, but Kyrie was the one already threatening to hold out. And unless you really like Eric Bledsoe (which I personally do!) I'm not sure what other deal is out there for Cleveland. I certainly can't see any that meets their criteria of present value + a top 5 pick from the past draft or potential one from next draft. |
08-26-2017, 04:55 PM | #429 | |
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Though I said the Brooklyn pick is not guaranteed to be a top 5 but I would be happy if the trade was voied and we got Crowder, Zivic and the pick back. In the end, I think it will be Cleveland and Golden State for one more year regardless . It s better to prepare for when Lebron goes to LA next season anyways. Last edited by Galaril : 08-26-2017 at 04:58 PM. |
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08-26-2017, 06:05 PM | #430 |
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Without IT, I just don't see anything short of multiple additional picks making this deal fly.
I get the sense that knowing the risk on his health was a "could go down again" thing from the CLE side, not "might not play before Christmas" (or whatever they found) thing.
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08-26-2017, 06:16 PM | #431 |
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Boston may still trade IT to Cleveland, but add in another pick or two to compensate. Don't think Cleveland voids the trade unless Boston doesn't want to give up anything else.
Last edited by rjolley : 08-26-2017 at 06:17 PM. |
08-26-2017, 07:34 PM | #432 | |
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Teams have had us over a barrel for 2 years in trade talks where they knew we needed to consolidate assets... Is Cleveland gonna get a better deal in the next couple months or actually deal with Kyrie holding out during the last season before LeBron (potentially) leaves? Btw, it is funny how quickly Celtics fans/Twitter went from "this is a terrible deal, gave up too much" to "oh god, I hope it still goes through". Even by Boston standards Celtics Twitter is by far the worst. |
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08-26-2017, 09:05 PM | #433 | |
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Pretty much this. No interest in a midget PG who will literally have no value if he's chronically injured. |
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08-26-2017, 11:02 PM | #434 |
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I would say fuck this trade. Cleveland can take the deal on the table which is more than is deserved for what was offered or void it.
Last edited by Galaril : 08-26-2017 at 11:02 PM. |
08-27-2017, 12:16 AM | #435 |
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Pretty elite-level trolling if Cleveland did this intentionally. Not sure IT is going to be happy about returning to that locker room now.
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08-27-2017, 12:46 PM | #436 |
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This Shams guy is only 22 or so? It's nuts how well he's made connections
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08-27-2017, 07:37 PM | #437 |
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I feel like the Cavs are way over-abusing the IT-Kyrie trade complicstions. As much as I have been a fan of Ainge getting off his ass and doing something, at this point I would give Cleveland the finger. I would say "Go find a better deal. When you can't, call us and we'll revisit."
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08-27-2017, 07:44 PM | #438 |
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Am I crazy though for thinking that the Boston/IT relationship would be pretty much done at this point though? I think it would be a tough reconciliation, at best.
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08-27-2017, 07:48 PM | #439 | |
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Except that the Cavs are in better shape than BOS if that happens. The gap wouldn't narrow, it would be wider for the next year at least. And how much patience would be exercised if that happens?
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08-27-2017, 07:51 PM | #440 |
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Neither Kyrie nor IT get Boston past Golden State, so keep the pick or find a new partner.
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08-27-2017, 08:04 PM | #441 |
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08-27-2017, 10:10 PM | #442 |
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Wow Cleveland it sounds like is asking for Tatum and Brown. LMAO. Neither should even be considered if the Celtics have any sense. Sounds like Cleveland will settle for asking for a 1st rounder but Boston is saying nothing more if anything than a 2nd rounder.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2017/8/2...d-kyrie-irving |
08-27-2017, 10:14 PM | #443 | |
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Then if CLE has any sense at all they'll let the Celtics hang themselves. While a trade cancellation means it's probably one last chance for CLE, that's a lot better chance than BOS has next year without this deal.
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08-27-2017, 10:52 PM | #444 |
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It's not a 2nd rounder instead of IT. It's a 2nd rounder to compensate for not having IT for half a season, which isn't the most unexpected development before a physical was even done.
A lottery protected first is the furthest Ainge should go, if even that.
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08-27-2017, 11:26 PM | #445 |
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Give them back Crowder and the Nets pick. Take Brown and Tatum.
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08-28-2017, 02:31 PM | #446 |
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08-28-2017, 03:07 PM | #447 |
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The Celtics can most definitely turn back.
They will still have the Brooklyn pick in their back pocket, and they can shop this deal they would have made with Cleveland to other teams. If they don’t want to trade Thomas, what is he going to do? He is going to be a free agent, and he wants to see the Brinks truck. It’s really unfortunate how this is affecting him, but this is the cold side of the business. Crowder may not want to come back. But he is a fairly valuable asset, so the Celtics will have options if they want to trade him. The truth is neither the Cavs, nor the Celtics are in a great position with this deal in limbo but nothing HAS to be done. |
08-28-2017, 03:08 PM | #448 |
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Worst case is we ship Jae off for a future asset or another pg, we still keep Brooklyn pick and IT has surgery and is done with the Celtics. Probably IT comes back as starter at some point or makes a heck of a 6th man. The Cavs are risking their reputation on getting a late first, no way Danny does any more or ever would. They have misread the room in my opinion and it will hurt them in the future.
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08-28-2017, 03:24 PM | #449 |
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Good thing the Celtics have spent the last week telling everyone and their mother how they think Brooklyn will be better next year and that pick could end up in the 6-10 range.
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08-28-2017, 03:36 PM | #450 | |
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Or that the Cavs have been boasting about how good the deal was for them because Kyrie isn't really that good.
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