The Heat of South Beach: A Jestorball MP Article Saga (DDSPB 1/2)

[Izulde]

This will be a much different dynasty than you're used to seeing from me in the following ways:

1. This is an MP league, not an SP dynasty.
2. Rather than the narrative format, it will be presented almost wholly in articles, with the occasional F-2-F commentary.
3. It won't die an early death. There are 383 articles right now on the NLL's forum all written by me. Some are long, some are short. Some are serious, some are quite silly. Most deal with my team, some deal with other teams or the league as a whole.

The Backstory
I have a terrible track record with MP leagues. I'm notorious for joining them, getting an initial rush of enthusiasm, and then burning out (not unlike my dynasties, save for a rare few). In fact, this dynasty will actually chronicle my second stint in the NLL. The first time, as you'll see in the opening article or two, I took the Orlando Magic, did a terrible job because it was my first DDS MP experience, and quit after an offseason and a half-season, partly because it wasn't fun anymore and partly because at the time there was a guy in the league I absolutely hated.

Ironically enough, the same guy would later end up taking the Magic, shortly before I came back and took on the Heat. We get along okay now, but he's an excellent GM, so the Florida Wars, as I like to call them, have made for an interesting rivalry.

This is very much going to be an in medias res situation because of the format. To be honest, I'm not sure whether people will enjoy reading it, or whether they'll get confused. I'll try combing through the NLL archives periodically to see if I can find relevant information if it's needed for clarity.

I'll also try to update once a day, if possible. Doing that, it would take me over a year if I posted every single article I've ever written. We'll see what happens.

Hope you enjoy the ride.

Oh yes, one other thing to note. Like the GAH, the historical league which I co-commish, it's a real player one, but both the NLL and the GAH are their own organic universes. The stars of the NLL (and to a lesser extent, the GAH) are not necessarily those of the real world. In fact, there's some superstars in the NLL who don't play in the NBA in real life, or who are marginal players at best.

I've also chosen the NLL over the GAH for this dynasty because 1) I have a lot more material for it and 2) I think my best media work so far has been in the NLL.

[Izulde]

Original Post Date: March 7th, 2010. My final semester at Arkansas. I hadn't yet been accepted to UNLV - that wouldn't happen until early April.

Jestor Returns To South Florida; Shakeup Imminent

Former Magic and new Heat GM Jestor in Spain, where he was rumored to be talking with Pau Gasol and Ricky Rubio

Just when Rudy Gay and Ty Lawson thought it was safe to walk the streets of Florida again, an old and terrible menace arose from the palm trees.

Jestor, who infamously traded Gay and Lawson while with the Orlando Magic, announced today that he'd accepted the position of GM with the Miami Heat. Although his tenure with the Magic was brief, Jestor became known in Orlando for his lavish productions, including draft day parties and his all-stops pursuit of Amar'e Stoudamire that kept the Magic in the running longer than anyone anticipated. He also dealt Gay as part of a package for veteran defender Ron Artest as the main return piece, a deal that raised eyebrows and caused some to question his sanity, if not his outright ability.

Regardless, Miami was eager to acquire him and Jestor was just as eager to sign, having grown comfortable in Florida from his Orlando days and a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan. Rumor has it that 'Phins season tickets are included as part of his contract.

The Heat have been grossly underachieving, posting a 25-44 mark so far this season and are a lock to be a Top 10 pick. But unfortunately for Jestor, much as he faced in Orlando, the first rounder is not his new team's, but another's, in this case the eternally unconquerable dynasty of the Detroit Pistons.

There's talent there, certainly. Richard Jefferson is a former All-Star still capable of 20 points a game, and, at 31, he still has plenty more left in the tank. Gay is still young at 25 and a top quality player and Pau Gasol made the All-Star game this year, also at 31. Then there's youngsters such as Stanley Robinson, the 19 year old rookie who has failed to see the minutes he deserves, especially as the team has plunged into guaranteed lotterydom.

No doubt the first order of business for Jestor's Heat will be to insert Robinson in the starting lineup and see how he does the rest of the season. Although the trade moratorium is in place until the offseason, one would expect teams to start inquiring after various of Miami's pieces. On the bright side, the Heat do own the Rockets' 1st round pick which should be a mid 1st rounder with a very outside shot of being late lottery if Houston's poor run of form continues and leads to a playoff miss.

On the other hand, Lawson, who Jestor failed to pick up the 4th year option on in Orlando, might well be able to walk as an unrestricted free agent because not all of his options were picked up. The Heat are waiting for a ruling from league officials, however.

"Everyone and I do mean everyone will be available" Jestor said at the conference formally declaring his hiring, "Obviously some players will be deemed much more valuable than others, but when this talented a team is struggling to the degree that the Heat have, this is more than a question of coaching or of strategy. It's a sign that this group of players, regardless of how individually talented they may be, have not been able to mesh as a team, so it needs to be broken up.

Whether we go for the restructuring and attempt to keep the same talent level, but better performing, or whether we do as a certain Taber did in Cleveland, will depend entirely on what kind of negotiations and offers we have. The only thing I can guarantee is that we will not be idle this offseason. We will be extremely active in completely remodeling this franchise."

If past history is any indication, that means lots of trades. However, the Heat may not be so active in free agency. The Stoudamire situation aside, Jestor is well-known for his philosophy of building through trades and drafts, avoiding the free agent market whenever possible. In any case, the Heat are currently over cap and may not even use their exemptions, though that remains to be seen.

[Izulde]

By the way, as a little bit of deeper background, the Orlando Magic GM before me traded a first round pick for Ty Lawson.

Guess what happened?

Yeah, it became the #1 overall pick, turning into Cole Aldrich, who I may talk more about later in a non-article post. And that's precisely when I came in, for that offseason. Could've had the #1 pick, but instead I had some scrubby late first rounder, a pick I promptly made worse by screwing up.

As for Lawson, well, I'll probably expand more on his career later, but suffice it to say, this was doubtless one of the single worst trades by GM in league history.

Just glad it wasn't me who made it.

[Izulde]

Remaining Games Will Clarify Initial Inklings

Is Stanley Robinson the answer as the franchise face?

The Miami Heat have yet to play a game under the Jestor regime, but we already know that they're going to run a much slower offense than the hellburner pace they've been playing. Jestorball does like to run slightly faster than the average offense, but considers warp speed an invitation to injuries, turnovers and poor shooting. We also know that the Houston Rockets' pick they own is not available for discussion unless it involves Miami moving up in the draft and that Rudy Gay is a good bet to once again be traded after the turbulent chapter in Orlando.

Beyond that, nothing's a certainty, not even Stanley Robinson's staying with the Heat. However, insider sources are already providing information on the opinionated GM's gut feelings on every player on the roster.

Point Guard
Earl Watson
Very good veteran defender with adequate passing and handling for a reserve point guard, although not ideal. Doesn't look for his own shot much and turns into a $6.2 million expiring contract next year. There are worse options out there and while trading Earl isn't out of the question, indications are that Jestor would be perfectly fine going forward with him as a backup and piece of future financial flexibility.

Ramon Sessions
Breathtaking 3 point shooter who has all the talent and intangibles needed to become an All-Star, but he's looked surprisingly ordinary, both as a passer and as a scorer, the latter due to his low shooting percentage. Is it a result of the system or is it something endemic to Sessions himself? That's the question Miami's front office will try to get an answer to in the small sample size of remaining games. Given the draft's depth at guard, there's a fair shot that Sessions could be traded for the right pieces. We're hearing that Ramon will get looks at both guard spots to see how he does in the handful of games left. There's already teams expressing interest in him, which increases the chance he could be traded.

Darren Collison
22 year old still has some upside left and has shown occasional flashes of ability, but inconsistent playing time makes it extremely difficult to get a read on just how good he is. Like Watson, he'll be an expiring contract next season. Insiders tell us he could be traded to a team willing to give him a chance and more playing time. He's certainly looked much better in his limited minutes than he has at any other point in his career, suggesting that he's improved from his first two seasons, or indeed even earlier this year.

Ty Lawson
49.2% in a Heat uniform this year, 42.5% from long-range. Those are the kind of numbers that put a player in good graces with Jestor. He'll see some more playing time down the stretch to see if he can handle the new offense and if Miami would be interested in bringing him back when he hits free agency. He'll either be re-signed or he'll walk is our current guess, although the smart money may be on the latter, given the Orlando history.

Jason Hart
33 year old vet expires at the end of the year. Good looking player on paper and showed some good form in scant minutes this season, but because of his age and the presence of Watson and Collison, he probably takes a hike.

Shooting Guard
Anthony Morrow
Scoring crack in a can. Insane shooting of 46.8% and 43.7% from long-range and averaged 10.2 points in just 17.7 minutes. Has never even heard of the word defense, but this 2nd round rookie (taken with the 8th pick in the 2nd round) has been a pleasant surprise this year. Disciplined, too. Although an intriguing player and cheap to boot, he might be gone in the offseason. At least one team has expressed interest in his sexy point production.

Small Forward
Richard Jefferson
One of the team's two best players, he played great this year when he wasn't dinged up with niggling injuries caused by the Heat's torrid pace. He's got some back soreness right now and as a result, he's benched until he fully heals. A 20 point per game scorer who plays great defense with ballstealing ability is not something you risk losing to a serious injury, especially not when he's one of your team's most attractive pieces of trade bait. In fact, some within the organization speculate Jestor might simply shut him down for the rest of the season, just to play it safe.

Stanley Robinson
Breathtaking potential from the 19 year old, who, as many have already commented, didn't see the playing time he deserved due to absentee management. He'll be plugged in as the starter for the rest of the year. There's already been interest in him, but the only way Robinson goes is in some kind of package that gives the Heat the guaranteed #1 overall pick and Ricky Rubio, who Jestor would lobby intensely to come out in that scenario. He's 19 and that means a lot of years and a long career in the NLL. The only drawback is, he's an undersized 4, but a 4 he most certainly is.

L.R. Mbah a Moute
One-note defensive specialist. The 25 year old wants out of Miami in the worst possible way and if the Heat get a suitor, he'll probably get his wish. The Heat want no malcontents on the team and Jestor believes there's enough defense that Moute's specialities aren't needed.

Rudy Gay
Ah, yes. Rudy Gay. One of the best all-around young players in the game. You can bet that the Heat won't trade him, Walter Sharpe and a 2nd round pick for Ron Artest this go-round like in Orlando. There, the Magic were forced to trade him to get something or risk him walking. Here, he's signed on for four more years, allowing Jestor and Miami to wait and see what comes of it. A lot of teams want him, but what will they be willing to pay? That's the question.

Power Forward
Cheik Samb
According to insiders, Jestor views Samb as the young, black reincarnation of Chris Dudley, which is to say that he's a rebounder, defender and blocker 3 in 1 specialist in the making who won't even think about shooting and will at least hit half the time when he does. There's already been an inquiry about him, but it's not a guarantee he goes. Not when he's a cheap, young, valuable specialist locked up for 3 more years and not when the big man crop in this year's draft is looking so weak. Anything's possible, though. His high work ethic also bumps his value.

Brian Scalabrine
Struggled with his shot this year, which may be a mark of the speed system. Good defender, smart player who turns expiring next year. Certainly tradeable.

Pau Gasol
The single-best player on the team and Jestor's favorite. An All-Star with a receding contract. Offers will come fast and furious for Gasol, but it's going to take a great one to pry the Spainard loose. Which isn't to say it can't be done. It can. But if he goes, expect Miami to go into full-fledged rebuilding mode, a la the Cavaliers in the first year of the Taber regime.

Center
Rafael Arujao
Good, solid veteran center. Expiring contract. Not starter-worthy, but a capable reserve who could come back at the right price.

Final Outlook
We'll go on record right now as saying none of these players are guaranteed to be traded, but that of the players expected to get calls about them, Gay and Jefferson are the most likely, followed by Samb and Sessions, then Gasol and Robinson, only in the right deal. All the other players are equally likely to be traded or not. In terms of picks, Miami's 2013 1st can not be traded due to consecutive pick rule and they're not likely to hand out their 2014 1st either. The Rockets' 1st in this draft we already covered, but the 2nd round picks are a fair bet to be trade chips, given Jestor's history.

*******

Context Notes
Wow, it's amazing to look back at this and remember what I started with. The Chris Dudley reference, incidentally, harkens back to the first incarnation of the GAH, when it was a 1990s league for a couple seasons before I got burnt out being the guy who did everything. Learned a valuable lesson that co-commishing and dividing up the duties is the way to go about it to ensure long-term stability, like we have now in GAH 2.0 (Started in 1976, now in the offseason prior to 1983).

I'll talk more about some of these guys later on, but this gives you a more complete overview of just what exactly I had at the beginning. Many of these guys I'd forgotten about until reading this again.

[Izulde]

Someone at the WS boards who's in the league suggested I post the ratings now rather than end season, and it makes sense to see what I started off with.

So here's the HTML ratings:



A couple of notes here:

1. Stanley Robinson and Cheikh Samb had very enticing potentials you obviously won't see in the HTML, which is why they were drawing interest already.

2. Basically, as you may have gotten a sense of in the first couple of articles, when I took over, the team was two 30+ veterans in Richard Jefferson and Pau Gasol, two promising guys in Robinson and Samb, and a bunch of role players, although Anthony Morrow was the kind of specialist that intrigued certain GMs. And that was before the league tidal shift that occurred under not too long after I took on the Heat. But that will be covered in great detail later.

A couple more screens:



Gives you an idea of the age and contract distribution we had going on. I'd show the stats, too, but this is end season HTML from NLL's archives so it wouldn't tell you much.

I think the previous Heat GM, who was there a very long time, must have been a big UCLA fan, given how many Bruins are on the roster. I can remember his real name, but not his NLL nick anymore. Weird how that works.

Anyway, as you can probably tell from Flip Saunders, Miami had a very long history of success prior to the GM's quitting when the team started falling apart the year I joined (due largely to very questionable moves on his part, some of which may get talked about later in this dynasty).

Unfortunately, that long history of success didn't include any titles. It was the era of the Detroit dynasty, which I'll discuss more later on, because this was still in the middle of that period. So essentially, the Heat for years were one of those teams who was so agonizingly close, but never could pull it off.

And now a middling roster that should have been around .500 thanks to stars Pau and R-Jeff and the pieces around them, but was underachieving due to the inability to mesh was mine.

I had a lot of work to do.

Pick Breakdown Upon Taking Over
Houston Rockets 2011 1st
Miami Heat 2011 2nd
Sacramento Kings 2011 2nd
Miami Heat 2012 1st
Atlanta Hawks 2012 2nd
Miami Heat 2013 1st
San Antonio Spurs 2013 1st
Miami Heat 2013 2nd
New York Knicks 2013 2nd

Looks like a great haul, right? Well, not really. As I indicated in the opening article, the Rockets were in a fierce fight for the playoffs, so that was a mid-first. Don't remember the Kings' status at the time, but we were worse.

With the Heat and Magic down in the dumps, the Southeast was a battle between Charlotte and Atlanta most years, with the Washington Wizards annual underachievers thanks to a GM, Matt, who was great at putting talent and teams together on paper, but who couldn't execute on the court.

The San Antonio Spurs were, like the Heat during the prior GM's tenure, an annual playoff team under their own long-time GM, Najira, and didn't look to go into a decline phase anytime soon, and the New York Knicks under tokyojordan were one of the strongest teams in the Atlantic, which at that time was one of the better divisions in the league, if memory serves correctly.

[Izulde]

Jestor Declares Investigations Myopic

With a history of lambasting previous regimes, it's no wonder that new Heat GM Jestor was quick to launch a tirade against the prior front office's three scouting decisions.

According to inside sources, the GM remarked rather frostily that, "The only smart thing they did was to only scout three players and not totally screw us in our hunt for good players." The players scouted were two aged 25 or older and one 22 year old, all three of whom are projected to go in the 2nd round and looked very much like the second rounders they are.

A person who sat in on the latest scouting meeting, speaking on condition of anonymity, reported that Jestor said, "The myopic scouting investigations by my predecessor are exactly why this team is in the position it is. To call this squad a title contender that only needs the help of an older player is foolhardy at best. As it stands right now, the roster is not even composed to challenge for a playoff spot, as it proved in the asskicking the Suns gave us last night."

With the Rockets' 1st round pick, a likely mid-round selection, the Heat's own 2nd rounder and the Kings' 2nd round pick, it's probable Miami will now shift its focus to players who have potential to be in the 14-17 range, as well as those who have a good shot at being a high 2nd round selection. It's believed that the front office will completely ignore scouting for the Kings' selection, preferring to take a flyer on a player there and focus their efforts on a selection of greater immediate impact.

Heat Rookie Struggling With New Offense

Doubtless Stanley Robinson is nostalgic for his UConn days and wishes he hadn't gone one and done

The Miami have won just one game since Jestor took over as GM, and although the Heat nearly knocked off the New Orleans Hornets in their last contest, it's clear the team is still struggling to adapt to the new offense, perhaps none more so than rookie Stanley Robinson.

On the surface, he's not doing all that badly. In five starts at PF, he's gone 11/22, or 50% from the floor and is averaging around a steal and a block per game. But Jestor and the Heat believe that at 6'9, 232 lbs, Robinson is too short for the style of offense the team plans to run. The Heat are also worried that he hasn't shown much scoring initiative and has struggled to keep from racking up the fouls.

"Maybe he came out too early", a West Conference scout commented, "Because right now, he's looking completely lost on a pro-level court. I think it was smart of the Heat to slow down the pace of the offense, which will let the kid pick things up, but it's going to take a while for him to adjust. Lots of teams would love to have him and knowing Jestor, a trade wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility."

In other news, it appears the Ty Lawson at PG experiment has been a failure and Ramon Sessions could be moved back to the 1 for the rest of the season, to see how he handles the new offense. Rudy Gay has been impressive and could find himself staying in Miami, as he's been playing Jestorball well.

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Context Notes
Two short articles combined in one post here. A few comments:

1. The worst thing about coming in as a new GM as late in a season cycle as I did is that almost invariably, the previous owner will have done something very stupid to the team. If it's not trading away a valuable first (as happened in both these cases), it's dealing for a toxic contract or, the worst of all evils, really screwing up the scouting.

The previous Heat GM, redsoxnation I think his name was, come to think of it, something Red Sox anyway, as the first article indicates, had looked at second round picks for whatever reason. You see, he had this belief for a long, long time that his team was only one move away from contention and kept making the wrong trade in that errant belief. Stupid move piled on stupid move gets you stuck in mid-tier talent status, eventually falling into mediocrity or worse record, usually with little future assets because you've likely dealt away firsts in that quixotic quest.

2. On the other hand, there sat Stanley Robinson, my single greatest trade chip. Ironically enough, back then I was still very much a purist in my Jestorball ideology (we'll see a lot more of Jestorball philosophy and its evolution as we go along), which biased me against Robinson. I frankly thought him a tweener, both because of his height and his weight. It's not that he performed all *that* horribly for a raw rookie - as the article notes, he had some good things about his game, but even then, I was, like most new GMs, thinking about how I could remake this team and put my own stamp on it.

3. If you're surprised I started Ty Lawson, you shouldn't be. When you're a new GM coming in at the tail end of the season and you don't have your own first round pick, it's quite common to tinker with lineups and rotations, using the strategies you prefer, to see who might stick around and who you'll try to dump off. That's what I did.

[Izulde]

Jestor Le Gusta Ricky Rubio

Spanish phenom PG Ricky Rubio bites basketballs like Miami Heat GM Jestor bites apples

How unfortunate that the Miami Heat don't have their first round pick this season. Then they might have a very good chance at winning the lottery and snapping up prized Spanish phenom point guard Ricky Rubio. But Rubio has not decided whether to declare and it could be that the Heat will try and get the #1 pick via trade or they may, if they can't secure the pick, try to sway him into waiting another season.

In the sort of extravagant, surreal pageantry we've come to expect from Jestor, the Miami Heat held a rally today to support Rubio's coming to South Florida. Spanish flags and signs proclaiming the city's love for Rubio waved in the hot early spring sun while Jestor spoke from a platform.


Rallygoers listen intently to Jestor's words

"Mi Espanol esta muy malo.. pero... Te amo, Ricky Rubio. Tu eres el Dio de Baloncesto. Nosotros quieremos que tu es un juego del Miami Heat. Nosotros tienemos muchos persones que dicen Espanol aqui. No Espanol de Espana, pero la Anglais de Estados Unidos no es la Anglais de Unidos Reinos. Tambien la ciudad Miami es una grande cuidad, y es posible a tu tienes mucho dinero aqui. Del Miami Heat tiene Pau Gasol y Pau he deciado que el tu aprendes la cultura y la vida des Estados Unidos. Gracias."

Despite the incredibly butchered Spanish, the speech was met with rousing cheers, to which Jestor answered "Yo tengo jamon para Ricky Rubio!", holding up a large hunk of meat. The meat was later sliced and distributed to the crowd for tasting.


A plate of the jamon served at the rally

Although the odds of the Heat ending up with Rubio, either in this draft or next, are likely slim, the chances of Rubio's wanting to play for Miami might well have increased after this event. Should Jestor and the Heat pull off the unthinkable feat in landing Rubio, whether via the draft or via trade, he'll spend his entire career in Miami and serve as the foundational piece for the Heat's reconstruction project.


A handmade sign from the rally

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Context Notes
Just one of the silly articles I like to write from time to time with very bad foreign language skills.

This was the first NLL draft run by mtgr81, who would later become my co-commish in GAH, a role he still occupies. Back then, articles still had a small bit of potential to hold sway over a prospect and I really, really wanted Rubio in the league.

I not only love collecting international players, but Spain has become, through the years, one of my, if not *the*, favorite countries in the world. In particular, going to Granada feels like going home again, the first international city to acquire that designation for me.

Okay, enough of my blathering of non-DDS/non-NLL stuff. I'll toss in the next article right away to make up for the fluffy article here.

[Izulde]

Seven Game Swoon Sour Close To Disappointing Season

Miami's leading scorer, SF Richard Jefferson, will likely find a new home in the offseason

In a way, we should have expected this. Experimental lineups sans leading scorer Richard Jefferson, a new offensive system, multiple injuries to the frontcourt, including PF Stanley Robinson, C Pau Gasol and C Cheikh Samb, and new GM Jestor called away for the last several games of the year. But that still doesn't fully eliminate the sting of the Miami Heat's seven-game losing streak to end the season, or the fact that the Heat were one of the most disappointing teams in the NLL this year. Having the Houston Rockets' 1st round pick, 15th overall, in the upcoming draft, is also a cold comfort, given that the Detroit Pistons are sitting #5 with Miami's own selection following tonight's lottery.

If we know anything about Jestor, we know that sweeping, epic changes are in store this offseason. A fast and furious remodeling will give us a team that will likely bear little resemblance to the old, and no one is safe from departure. Not even Robinson, the 19 year old franchise player in waiting who was grossly mishandled by the previous regime and still learning how to play Jestorball at season's end.

And now, a review of the roster.

Point Guard


Ramon Sessions
Ignore his season numbers of 12.7 points, 8.2 assists, and 1.3 steals on 38.2% shooting. What's important is that after he was moved back to point guard after a brief tryout at shooting guard under Jestorball, he was 52/110 from the floor in 8 games, a 47.3% conversion rate. Take out an aberrant 5/18 game versus the Pacers and it becomes 47/92, or 51.1%, a far cry from his season numbers. Admittedly, 8 games is a small sample size, but the dramatic difference in numbers suggest that Sessions may in fact be the right fit for this team. Also during that span, Sessions played relatively turnover-free ball, and while his assist numbers weren't eye-popping, his A/TO ratio was also impressive in contrast to his larger body of work.
Verdict: At least one team has already expressed interest in Sessions and it's still possible he could go. But his late-season numbers have earned him some supporters in Miami's front office, who feel Sessions should get more time to show last month's form was no fluke.


Ty Lawson
Got a handful of starts at PG after Jestor took over and although he showed flashes of floor generalship, he did nothing to earn himself a contract renewal in the offseason. He's an unrestricted free agent, so he'll once again have a very short stay on a Jestor team.
Verdict: The only question is if an NLL team will give him a min-sal contract, or if he becomes a career D-Leaguer. And to think he was once essentially traded for Blake Griffin.

Darren Collison
Virtually disappeared after Jestor took over. Greatest value is his youth and his expiring contract next season.
Verdict: Could go separately in a small deal, but far more likely to be included in a bigger package. He could also stick around and become cap space for the team next year.

Earl Watson
See Collison, albeit much older and with a much larger expiring contract next year at $6.2 million.
Verdict: Perhaps the most likely of the point guards to stay, given the size of his expiring contract. Don't count out his being moved for reasons similar to Collison, however.

Jason Hart
Min-sal scrub. He gone.
Verdict: Gone.

Shooting Guard


Anthony Morrow
The only true SG on the roster, this second round rookie had a sensational season. Taken with the 38th overall pick, he averaged 10.5 points and shot 46.4% from the field, 44.7% from 3 point range in 18.5 minutes with 8 starts. Those 8 starts coincided with Sessions's PG appearances in Jestorball and Morrow shot 49/117 (41.9%) and averaged 13.4 points a game, with no other significant stats. The numbers suggest that Morrow is most effective as a scoring burst off the bench and a liability as a starter.
Verdict: He's gotten a few inquiries about him, and he could go, but on the other hand, he's so perfect and a cheap an instant jolt of bench scoring, Jestor might well overvalue him, as Morrow can singlehandedly outscore an opposing team's reserves. He's that good a point producer.

Small Forward


Richard Jefferson
Averaged 19.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.3 steals before Jestor arrived and shut him down for the rest of the year so his ankle injury didn't get worse. He's still an elite scorer, even at 31 and he's signed to a reasonable contract through his year 34 season. There's no question he'll be traded sometime in the next year, whether it's in the offseason or after next year begins.
Verdict: It's a matter of when, not if. Thus far, no team has expressed interest in R-Jeff, but that's only because he hasn't played in 13 games. Make no mistake about it, though, smart teams hoping to contend will come calling for this excellent, well-rounded veteran. But of course, he isn't going to go for a song either.


Rudy Gay
Shot a career-best 47.7% this season, en route to a 13 point, 4.8 rebound, steal per game year. Terrific defender who will shut down his opponent. Won't ever be an elite scorer, but he's the type of glue guy who does everything well and will be undervalued by some teams because he doesn't post eye-popping points per game.
Verdict: Some teams have asked about him and given Jestor's past history, we wouldn't be surprised to see Rudy dealt if the right situation comes along. On the other hand, with the Magic, Jestor was forced to trade him or get nothing. Here, he can afford to be patient with the 25 year old and word is, there's no sense of urgency at all to move Gay.


Stanley Robinson
8th overall pick suffered through an abysmal rookie season after being ignored by the previous management, then was thrust into a starting role while simultaneously having to learn an entire new scheme. Thus, it's no surprise that he struggled mightily. But make no mistake; the 19 year old is still a franchise player in the making. The only problem is, he may not be the best fit for Jestorball.
Verdict: Call it 50/50 if he stays or goes. Jestor is notorious for changing players to fit his system, not changing his system to fit his players. Several teams have already come calling and more will do so as the offseason goes on. But the price will be quite high, particularly since Robinson is best suited to play the post in a league short on talented young 4s and 5s.

L.R. Mbah a Moute
Little-used and a non-factor on the roster. Don't expect that to change next year.
Verdict: If he goes, it'll be as part of a package to make salaries match. Otherwise he'll probably rot away, deep on the bench or the inactive list, until his contract runs out.

Power Forward


Pau Gasol
Jestor's most-loved player on this team averaged 17.1 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks on 53.2% shooting en route to an All-Star appearance. Signed to a declining contract, unlike Jefferson's ascending deal, but also for two more years. R-Jeff may be the lead scorer, but Gasol's the MVP and the direction the Heat goes in will determine what happens to Pau.
Verdict: Sources tell us that if it wasn't for Pau, Miami would head straight to rebuild territory and not look back. But Jestor's strong Spanish ties could lead the Heat to retool in hopes of being a contender in the East. If not, though, expect the team to painfully part with Pau for a princely package, probably of picks and players.


Cheikh Samb
The phone's been ringing off the hook for this rookie, who has drawn repeated comparisons to a young Chris Dudley. A controlled shooter who defers to others, is an exceptional rebounder, defender, blocker in the making, and an obscenely cheap contract, will always draw lots of suitors. Funny thing is, the Heat like him too, and if Pau goes, that makes Samb all the more valuable.
Verdict: No less than 5 teams have already asked about Samb, so expect a fierce bidding war to erupt. If Pau gets traded, look for the Heat to be much less inclined to deal Samb, unless they get back a young big they covet themselves, either for Samb or for Gasol in some type of a package. Rumor has it that Miami's in discussions with at least one team over just that scenario. Although the Heat are in no rush to trade Samb, indications are very likely that he'll be playing elsewhere next season.

Brian Scalabrine
See Watson, Earl.
Verdict: See Watson, Earl.

Center

Rafael Araujo
Solid all-around veteran center on an expiring contract. Made for a serviceable backup, but probably won't be back next year, as Jestor seeks to make his imprint on the team.
Verdict: Likely gone.

Overall Outlook
The question boils down to the same one that faces every mid-tier team in terms of talent - go for broke in trying to contend, or go the Cavaliers route and completely rebuild? Our money's on the latter option, Pau Gasol notwithstanding, particularly given how good the 2013 draft class promises to be, and with Miami ineligible to trade its own first round pick. The Heat also have their own and the Spurs' 2014 1st round pick, although the latter just took a huge hit in value with the Spurs winning the Ricky Rubio Sweepstakes.

The next couple of seasons will likely be a painful transition, but Miami should emerge out of it a better team than the current dysfunctional assembly of talented pieces. In any case, the offseason promises to be a most exciting one in South Florida.


***

Context Notes
Whoops. I was wrong on the eventual topflight big Ty Lawson was traded for. Thought it was Cole Aldrich but it was Blake Griffin, that eventual 1st overall pick.

In any case, this pretty much outlines where we were at in terms of our evaluations of players following our experimental tinkerings the rest of the year after I came in. It really sucked seeing the Pistons, who by the way, won the championship, their third championship in four seasons. Only the Chicago Bulls, led by Erick, the guy who became the Magic GM after me, broke that streak.

San Antonio won the #1 overall pick in the lottery, something like the third time they'd won it through the years. And of course, the belief was that they would draft Ricky Rubio, who, as you can see here, did declare. Despite all those #1 picks though, the Spurs hadn't been anything more than a consistent playoff team - a bit like the Washington Bullets in the current version of GAH, who won back to back #1 picks, but only finally became a strong team this season. (There's more to *that* story as well, but I'll save it for if I ever start a GAH dynasty).

Samb. Robinson. Gay. Morrow. Those were the four players I was getting the most PMs about. I may have gotten a PM or two about Pau - I don't remember now, but in most MP leagues, youth will be in extremely high demand and veterans like R-Jeff will get ignored because they're considered too old.

The only question now was who to deal and what for.

[Izulde]

Blockbuster Rumored

Not part of the suspected trade: The goth girl or the guy worshipping her

We've just received word that the Miami Heat and GM Jestor have given their verbal agreement to a blockbuster that will shake up the roster and put Miami firmly in the contending category.

The front office is notoriously tight-lipped and are refusing to comment on the trade, though sources from other organizations tell us that much-coveted young PF/C Cheikh Samb is part of the deal.

As per Jestorian policy, any further inquiry about Samb and the other pieces involved will either be ignored or replied to with a "Piece Not Available" type PM, for the Heat do not break verbals.

Swingmen Seem To Be Target

The latest mock draft has the Heat taking PF Tadija Dragicevic

The Miami Heat not only have hot and heavy rumors of a verbaled blockbuster trade, they're also sending their scouts out to investigate players for the upcoming draft. Although the front office and GM Jestor refused to comment on who they're targeting, it seems reasonable that they're looking at the swing spots with the 16th overall pick. One anonymous source suggested that Richard Jefferson or the #16 pick will go for a power forward and if that's the case, then the Heat will either be out of the first round or likely looking for a swingman to replace Jefferson, unless they got one back in the megadeal buzzing around the league.

According to the latest mock draft, PF Tadija Dragicevic will be the Heat's selection, should they still hold the pick. That seems certainly within the realm of possibility if the Heat still need a swingman, as 6'9, 235 fits the big SF mold characteristic of Jestorball and appears to have a well-balanced game.

While we don't know if Dragicevic is a target of the Heat, we do know that Miami is focusing their efforts on just a handful of players, preferring to go through an in-depth evaluation of a select few, rather than have incomplete information on a broader range of prospects. Sources also say the front office is making no effort to scout for their 2nd round pick, as it's the second to last selection in the draft.

Heat Reportedly Offering #16; 1 of 2 2014 Picks For Right Player

Miami Heat mascot Burnie was rejected when he applied for the starting SF spot, so he's making eyes at the cute brunette girl, which angered the boyfriend in between. A fight broke out moments after this photo was taken and Burnie burned the boyfriend.

Word has it that the Miami Heat have another verbal essentially agreed to, one that will send SF Richard Jefferson out for a player quite capable of filling the power forward void.

This impending deal, coupled with the verbal blockbuster already rumored on the streets, has opened up the door for a third trade in the combination, whereby the Heat are seeking a stellar veteran small forward to replace Jefferson. It's believed the Heat are offering a package of the 16th overall pick in the upcoming draft and one of the two 2014 picks they hold, either Miami's own or San Antonio's.

Sources say GM Jestor is scouring the league for the right small forward fit for those two picks. It's also possible that Miami could keep the pick and draft a young SF, or potentially trading just the 16th pick itself for a small forward, if the Heat can't come to terms for a star small forward for its two pick package.

****

Context Notes
Three smaller articles lashed together. I no longer remember the guys I was targeting in the draft, outside of maybe two or three.

But the blockbuster I remember very well. It was my first ever trade as the Heat GM and suffice to say that it completely bowled the league over. I also had a lot of other conversations going on at the team, including one deal that got quite messy in the end, and represents a low point in my GM career.

[Cap Ologist]

damn you and your cliffhangers

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Cap Ologist

damn you and your cliffhangers

A quick check shows the next article is another cliffhanger, with the first payoff the article after that.

[Izulde]

Two Blockbusters Forthcoming; Trade, Draft Rumors Abound

Rudy Gay is dreaming about life away from Heat GM Jestor again

This much we've been able to find out from our Heat sources: Stanley Robinson, Cheikh Samb, Rudy Gay, Ramon Sessions, and Richard Jefferson are all either completely guaranteed to leave or, in Jefferson's case, so close to leaving, we may as well call it done.

None of this, of course, is news to the most diehard of Heat followers. But what we have been able to glean is that Miami will return three players for those five and none will be older than 28 next season, with two 25 and under. On the face of it, this seems to fly in the face of GM Jestor's vow to be a contending team in the East next season, but our spies in Miami's front office tell us, "Only one of the guys we've got coming back is raw and needs development. The other two are good to go and you'll see a dramatic improvement in the team's performance next season."

At least one of the deals involves a three-way swap, and speculation is rampant that Jestor's old team, the Orlando Magic, is involved, although no confirmation has been forthcoming.

Other rumors are springing out of the agreed-to moves. We've heard that the Jefferson trade will give Miami a large amount of cap space with which to acquire an upper-echelon player, likely at the forward positions. Although no names have officially come up, the Internet rumor mill so far has sprouted Boston's Joe Johnson, New York's Rashard Lewis, Philadelphia's Amare Stoudamire, Sacramento's Elton Brand, Dallas's Lamar Odom, Denver's Ron Artest, Detroit's Andrei Kirilenko, Washington's Shawn Marion, Phoenix's James Johnson, New Jersey's Luol Deng, Minnesota's Marvin Williams and Emeka Okafor, and the Lakers' Dirk Nowitzki.

What have the Heat to offer for this troop of studly forwards? Reports suggest that super-scorer Anthony Morrow is high on a lot of teams' lists, but Jestor overvalues him in turn. There's also the #16 pick in the upcoming draft, Miami's own 2014 1st round pick and the San Antonio Spurs' 2014 1st as the primary pieces of interest.

Should Miami keep #16, it's believed that they'll go for a forward for a starter or for depth purposes, since that's where they scouted, but don't be surprised if the Heat pull a swerve and go big man or guard, because Jestor has historically been impulsive with his draft picks and has a notoriously bad drafting record. (see: Sonny Weems, Walter Sharpe).

With so many cards unrevealed and so much flux in the making, only one thing is guaranteed about the 2012-13 Miami Heat: Pau Gasol will be the starting center.

Which, in some way, is perfectly fitting. For it is Gasol whom Jestor is making all these moves for.

Jestor's Favorite Number; Intriguing Prospects Could Signal A Non-Trade

English C Joel Freeland is said to be catching the attention of the Heat's front office

A small bit of trivia about Miami Heat GM Jestor. His favorite number is 16. And that's exactly the pick his team owns in the upcoming draft, courtesy of the Houston Rockets' playoff entry.

All postseason long, the rumor's been that the #16 and one of the 2014 1sts will be dealt for a veteran forward, but according to the latest reports out of South Florida, the Heat may stand pat with their draft picks.

"There's a few guys the GM has his eye on for the spot", an anonymous source within the organization said, "As much as he wants to win Pau Gasol a title, he's also keeping an eye on the future, and there's a couple players that have really captured our interest lately."

One of those players is believed to be England's Joel Freeland, who could step in as the starting PF or come off the bench as Gasol's understudy and heir apparent. Of course, that wouldn't address the problem of a starting small forward, but according to the same source, the Heat will have a lot of cap space after trading Richard Jefferson shortly before free agency, enough to lure in an impact 3.

A Second Legitimate Blockbuster Just Verbaled To

There was a front-office wide celebration a few hours ago at the Miami Heat's headquarters, as GM Jestor hung up the phone and shouted, "We got him!"

Although a gag order has been issued on just who he is and what the particulars are, sources tell us that the deal involves the #16 pick, one of the 2014 first round selections Miami owns, and a pair of players. One employee, speaking of terms of anonymity, said, "This is a move that puts us firmly in the contending now camp. Our biggest issue now is going to be depth, and that's what our 2nd round pick and free agency is for, unless we see a potential starter in free agency that would allow us to move one of our projected starting five to the bench."

The verbal agreement ends a long, arduous search for the right veteran to lead what will become a radically remade roster for next season, as the Heat are making a push to try and bring Pau Gasol a ring.

Context Notes
Three articles put together again, because I know some of you are getting impatient to hear about these trades, which will come with the next post.

Man, oh man, the conversations we had with so many different teams about #16. It was crazy, and involved a lot of discussions on Yahoo Instant Messenger with guys.

That story I told you about how one of these trades ended up being one of the lowlights of my GM career? It involves #16.

[Cap Ologist]

keep up the good work and speed up the updating process

[Izulde]

Thanks. But speediness of updates is not promised. However, one is forthcoming now.

[Izulde]

Epic Blockbuster Signals Wholesale Change of the Guards

The Miami Heat have a new franchise face and player in PG Chris Paul

Rumor leaked around the NLL, whispers that the first blockbuster trade Miami Heat GM Jestor pulled off was the acquisition of the league's best, young franchise point guard, Minnesota's Chris Paul, aka CP3. That suspicion became truth today as the Miami Heat rushed the details of a three-way trade immediately to the league Trading Office upon its opening. The deal is immense in its implications for all three teams involved and for the East as a whole.

For the Heat, the trade means goodbye to 8th overall pick SF Stanley Robinson, starters PG Ramon Sessions and SF Rudy Gay, and highly coveted young PF Cheikh Samb. Besides Paul, Miami also netted young SG Daequan Cook.

Celebration was in full swing at Miami Heat headquarters, with the entire staff given the rest of the day off if they wanted it, participation in an office party if they wanted to stay. Jestor was open and amicable when approached about the trade.

"It's funny how this trade came about. When I first took the job, a whole slew of teams came calling about Samb and Minnesota was one of them. Just as a shot in the dark, I asked if it was possible to get Paul if I opened up my entire roster. They said it was, but the price would be high, as befitting a franchise point guard who will still be just 27 next season.

We quickly settled on Sessions, Robinson, and Samb. The Timberwolves also wanted Rudy and they offered Daequan as part of it. We took a bit to think about it, but it wasn't hard for us to sign off on the deal.

As for the Magic, well they aggressively pursued Samb from the beginning and when we informed them that we had agreed to trade Samb elsewhere, they asked who it was and, as you can see, Orlando successfully negotiated the 3 way to get their man."


SG Daequan Cook was so excited to hear about the move to Miami, he already went out and bought an entire Heat uniform for his first interview after news of the trade broke

"You already know the benefits about getting Chris Paul, so I don't need to explain that. Daequan Cook is a kid we absolutely fell in love with the more we looked at him. He's young, be 25 next season, has good shooting skills, quality defense and stealing and perhaps most importantly, he's extremely cerebral and disciplined. Although I generally prefer a 6'7 or 6'8 off-guard in the Jestorball system, Daequan's big enough at 6'5 to fit our system. He's also still got some upside, which he can hopefully fill out by having the first full-time starting gig of his career. And yes, he will be our opening night starter at the 2 spot."


The biggest piece for Minnesota was 20 year old to be SF Stanley Robinson

"Some people will no doubt think we're overpaying for these two players. That's fair. But Stanley Robinson is somebody we very quickly determined had absolutely no place on our team. He shot 38.8% last year, 12.8% from long range. And sure, he was a 19 year old rookie, but he's also 6'9, 232 lbs. Great size for a small forward, terrible for a power forward, but yet his game is that of a PF. Tweeners don't fit the Jestorball mode unless they're 6'6, 250-70 lbs like Larry Johnson back in the day, guys with muscle.

Ramon Sessions did pretty well for us down the stretch and showed real potential as a floor general in our system, but the Timberwolves demanded a starter-capable point guard back, so we had to give him up, simple as that.

Believe it or not, I actually didn't want to give up Rudy Gay. He's developed into the perfect glue guy since my days in Orlando and I'd really hoped to hang on to him. His absence definitely leaves a huge hole at small forward, but we've got plans in place to address that issue.

And finally, Mr. Cheikh Samb, the one who started the conversation. What can you say about a guy who will one day be like a Bo Outlaw or Chris Dudley, except to say that it's very difficult to let him go, especially in a league like this that prizes defense and rebounding so highly. However, we've already got a verbal lined up that we think will bring a player comparable to or even better than Samb, so it turned out to be not as hard to part with him as you might first imagine. He'll be a great fit in Orlando, which has patience enough to start him and give him the playing time he needs to develop."


Young big man Cheikh Samb, who ignited the discussion that turned into the blockbuster

"Ultimately, I think this trade is one that helps immediately push us into the playoff conversation, even in a stacked East. Chris and Daequan are both young enough that even if we fail in the short-term, we'll have a strong enough backcourt to retool and keep challenging for a number of years. I look forward to watching those two along with Pau Gasol on the court and, as I think you'll see with a couple of trades we have lined up for after the renouncements period, we're very serious about contending."


Former NBA Live cover boy SF Rudy Gay has been traded for the second time by Jestor


It's not Boise or Tulsa that PG Ramon Sessions is headed, but the Twin Cities, where he will presumably take over Chris Paul's old spot


****

Context

The fuller trade details:
Miami Heat send
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300

Miami Heat receive
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000

Total Salary Sent - $16,273,599
Total Salary Received - $17,240,000

Minnesota Timberwolves send
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Minnesota Timberwolves receive
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Total Salary Sent - $18,223,500
Total Salary Received - $15,367,299

Orlando Magic send
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Orlando Magic receive
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Total Salary Sent - $0
Total Salary Received - $1,889,800

My feedback to feedback post in the article thread sums up my thoughts on the deal then and frankly, even now, except for the part about Sessions because no Nevada Dogpack players allowed on my teams. (I hadn't officially decided on UNLV yet, although it's getting quite close now).

I do love nabbing Cook, although it's a little hard to project what he'll do in a full-time starting role, so it's a bit of a gamble.

Like I said, I can see where people thought I overpaid, but the thing to remember is, Robinson had almost no value to us because he didn't fit our system and when a guy doesn't fit, he's worthless unless you change things up. I'm the type of guy that gets players for the system, not the other way around.

I also, as Brooklyn pointed out, finally have a legitimate franchise player in CP3. Gasol's great, but he's not a franchise player and I'd bet money that Robinson will never be a franchise guy.

Our depth is going to be a little shaky, but it wasn't all that great last year, either. I think once everything is said and done, with the draft, with the trades and with free agency, we'll be okay depth-wise. Probably not fantastic, but equal to or better than this past season IMO.

Out of all these players, I'll probably miss Sessions and Gay the most. Sessions is the prototypical Jestorball PG in a lot of respects and showed it at the end of last season and like I said, Gay's the perfect glue guy, albeit overpaid.

Reactions to the blockbuster in the Trade Discussion thread:

ranger - Milwaukee Bucks GM
Great trade for the Wolves. Paul is a great player and Adrien has potential but they get plenty of value in return. Both the other teams overpaid, I think.

Cleasby - Sacramento Kings? GM - He left and came back later
I really like the deal for Miami though they get a quality all star to put with Gasol.

mgtr81 - Chicago Bulls GM
I really like the deals for the... TWolves... TWolves got a lot in return, both Miami and Orlando overpaid in my opinion.*

*He commented on several trades at once, so I ellipsised out the other trade commentary.

There was also an extended argument between the Magic GM and eurostar over Samb's comparatively low discipline that I won't rehash here. Any time you have two strong-willed, highly opinionated people going at it like that, the results won't be pretty (I admit I tend to be something of an ass in trade reviews too, as Crimson, the current Cavs' GM, can attest to).

The article feedback saw Iceman (then Houston Rockets GM), Taber (then Cleveland Cavaliers GM), donkey33 (then the architect of the Detroit Pistons dynasty), Brooklyn (New Jersey Nets GM[/b], and anywayz17 (then Portland Trailblazers GM), all consider it a good deal from our end.

I can see where certain GMs thought I overpaid, but I'm of the belief that you need to have legitimate stars to win championships - incidentally, I differ from mgtr81 in this regard, even though he and I share many other similarities in philosophy, as I may have mentioned. When I took them over, the Miami Heat had no franchise player to hang their hat on.

Now, with CP3, I had that guy. And I had the bonus of Cook, who Najira (San Antonio Spurs GM) and mgtr81 both believed were underrated by the rest of the league. Now was his chance to be a starter.

[Izulde]

Llull Confirmed Verbal To Orlando; Jestor's Thoughts

Memphis F Robert Dozier was believed to be Miami's #1 target had they kept the pick

With word breaking out of Orlando of the verbal that sends Sergio Llull to the Magic, Miami GM Jestor held a press conference to both confirm the verbal and to address where the team would have gone had the Heat retained their pick.

"Our #1 option was always Robert Dozier. He has the ideal size and skill set that would have made him an Opening Night starter in his rookie season at one of our forward spots.

Option #2 was Joel Freeland, who one of you reported, correctly, that we were very much interested in. While we have a talented young big coming in via a trade verbal, you can never stockpile enough of them in today's basketball landscape.

With both those guys off the board by #16, a fight would have broken out in the war room between those of our scouts favoring Austin Daye and those liking Wayne Ellington. Daye would have given us a terrific glue guy at small forward and we probably would have tried him a bit at the two spot as well, whereas Ellington is the type of high IQ, accurate shooting 1-3 player we love for matchup purposes and versatility in the lineups.

It ultimately probably would have been Daye, as the questions about Wayne's consistency would have been just enough to be the tiebreaker.

But I'm happy with the direction we've chosen to go in, as you'll see after renouncements are over. We're also still trying to get back late into the first round, even if it's pick #30, and we're offering #34 and our 2014 2nd to move up."

Timing of Verbaled Trades Likely To Cause MLE/LLE Loss

The impending trade of SF Richard Jefferson (l) will be a two-edged sword

Horror struck the region of South Florida today when the Miami Heat discovered that they've made a serious miscalculation. As a result of the verbal that will send star veteran SF Richard Jefferson out to create the cap room needed for the player being obtained for the rights to Sergio Llull and one of the team's 2014 1st round picks, Miami will lose both its MLE and LLE, even though they're losing the space in the Lull and 2014 1st trade.

"It's a nightmare situation for us", a Heat staff said, speaking on conditions of anonymity due to the potential for GM Jestor's wrath. "Now, instead of getting the starting forward we were hoping for, we'll need to start L.R. Mbah a Moute or Brian Scalabrine. That's the worst case scenario possible for us."

Compounding the problem is the fact that the team will be restricted to offering minimum-salary deals only, which means they'll be forced to rely on the chance for a ring, playing time, and Jestor's media savvy as selling points to lure prospective free agents in. It also ends the talk that was brewing about the Heat pursuing G Chauncey Billups to be recently acquired Chris Paul's backup.

"We're going to have hit the pavement hard on this one", the source said. "And one of our strengths, Jestor's media-friendliness, will be a drawback, too, because the instant he publicizes any interest in a player, at least two or three teams will immediately swarm to him with more money and probably enough to steal those guys."

It's a tight-rope walk for a Miami franchise already having to walk a minefield of financial restrictions for this upcoming season. Ultimately, they may end up a team with a fantastic four in their starting five, but a gaping hole at one spot, and with a weak bench besides.

This is not the stuff contenders are made of, and this may well signal all of Jestor's carefully-laid plans blowing up in his face, leaving Miami's fans forced to be content with a mid-tier status in the East, rather than a darkhorse as the GM envisioned the Heat as.

Heat Listening But Nothing Imminent

After privately informing the Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons they were giving up plans to move back into the first, suddenly the Miami Heat have been bombarded with calls about their second round picks, both #34 and #59.

"It's been crazy", GM Jestor said as his cellphone went off with another text message. "A lot of teams are seeing guys they view as potential steals about to drop in our pick range, so everybody's trying to move in.

We've had one team offer us one of my favorite players for #34, but we need to preserve as much cap as we can, or I'd strongly consider taking that deal. As for what we do if we keep the pick, I don't know yet. Our scouting department is working overtime to hunt for some hidden gems. We'll just have to see what they come up with for #34. And #59 is too far away for us to even contemplate right now."

If Miami does deal both its second round picks, that would mark the first time in basketball history that a Jestor-run team has essentially opted out of the draft completely, as #16 pick Sergio Llull is on his way to the Orlando Magic.

***

Context Notes
Things are about to get very ugly in a few posts, even more so than they're looking now. Numbers and mathematics aren't my strong suit, to the point where I have to double and triple check my work to make sure it's right. (Incidentally, this is one of the reasons why mgtr81 and I make such an effective co-commissioner team - he's brilliant with numbers whereas my strengths are in the writing realm, so we complement each other perfectly, in much the same way that Mike and Najira, who currently run the scouting for NLL, do (Mike being the numbers/math guy, Najira the writer).

All of which is a long-winded way of saying I thought I'd miscalculated my finances in this second blockbuster. Which was going to be a huge problem, as I needed that money if I was truly going to have a contending team.

Oh yeah, once again, three articles in one. The last one shouldn't surprise anyone who follows any of my DDS dynasties. One of the core beliefs of my philosophy is that second round picks are trade fodder.

[Izulde]

Byars To Battle For Starting SF Spot

The maturity and experience former Virginia and Vanderbilt star G/F Derrick Byars got the last few years playing for Alba Berlin greatly impressed the Miami Heat

As promised, Miami Heat GM Jestor spoke regarding the first of the team's second round picks, 25 year old G/F Derrick "Double-V" Byars. The GM was all smiles as he discussed the selection.

"One of our scouts came to us after attending the playmakers' camp, raving about Derrick's passing and handling skills out of the 3 spot", Jestor said. "We already knew that he was considered a first round talent who a lot of teams were passing on because of his age. But when we heard about those skills and how he showed pretty good consistency, intelligence and discipline we knew we had to take him.

At 6'7, 225 lbs and with his skill set, he has the perfect size and game to be able to play anywhere from 1 to 3. We've heard good things about his defense and while he has deficiencies on the offensive side of the ball, our coaching staff will work with him to correct those flaws.

As of right now, he will, at the very minimum, be our 6th or 7th man off the bench, quite possibly filling in at point guard along with small forward. If he does well enough in camp, we could see him come out as the starting 3. There's still free agency to go through yet, and although we will not have our MLE or LLE, we're hopeful we can find the right players to improve our bench situation."

Some observers felt that Heat would trade down or trade out of the spot completely and Jestor admitted that was a strong possibility.

"We had a lot of teams calling us up, asking about #34, and some of them made some very tempting offers. Some in the war room wanted us to take the best one and move back or out, but ultimately it boiled down to one question. Did we really want to pass on Derrick, the consensus #1 player on our draft board, and risk him slipping out of our fingers? As you can see, the answer was no, and I'm very glad we didn't, because even if we'd taken the shortest drop offered to us, back to the Raptors at #38, he probably wouldn't have been there."

Several experts lauded the pick, calling Byars a first round talent and a real steal by the Heat. One even went so far as to say, "Miami gets one of the best values in this draft. Derrick Byars is a Top 20 talent and for him to fall all the way to #34, even with the questions about his age, is ridiculous."

The selection also gives the Heat dramatically improved flexibility in free agency and with their #59 pick. Because Byars is able to play anywhere from 1 to 3 and is legitimately good enough to be a big, capable backup point guard to Chris Paul and because he could start at small forward, the team has options.

Now, rather than feel pressured to try and find a SF bargain to start, or have a sense of anxiety about trying to find a floor general at a cheap price, the Heat can explore all possible players to find the best fit for their situation, because they have a safety net in Byars. It's a perfect storm of need meeting value meeting system and it's quite possible that he could end up having one of the better rookie seasons out of this year's class, as he's one of the most pro-ready players.

Some scouts say Byars's game reminds them of Portland's Gabe Muoneke, ironically taken with the 54th overall pick (#24 in 2nd round) by the Heat in 2010. Although the 31 year old hasn't had much of a pro career so far, despite a respectable first year with Miami, a few insiders believe Byars will have a better career than Muoneke, if nothing else than because the 25 year old will play longer and get a great opportunity than Muoneke did, even as a rookie.

Others consider Byars a more pro-ready version of Derrick Brown, the 22 year old Xavier product taken 29th overall by the Dallas Mavericks, although Brown has a considerably higher ceiling.

Jestor gave no indication on where the Heat plan to go with their #59 selection, but mentioned at least one team has been trying to trade for it, and that all options would be considered, depending on what players were available then and what trade offers Miami received for the pick.

Context Notes
I've said this before, but in most multi-player leagues, youth rules all. A lot of people were high on Byars, so it was a shock he fell that far. There is one notable instance where ageism no longer held sway, but that's quite a ways away from talking about.

Most second round picks don't get this lengthy an article from me, but with Sergio Llull verbaled to Orlando, he and my other second round pick, mentioned briefly in the next article that I'll post immediately after this one, were the only selections we were making for ourselves. Plus, you know, potential first round talent that deep in the second? Always worth chatting about.

[Izulde]

Jestor Spotted in Arkansas During Draft

Heat GM Jestor still kept tabs on the NLL draft on his laptop as seen in the background

The Miami Heat have been one of the most active teams in the early offseason, acquiring superstar Chris Paul and Daequan Cook, lining up two other verbals, and drafting Derrick Byars and Milovan Radkovic in the second round. First round selection Sergio Llull is already verbaled to Orlando.

We caught up to GM Jestor while he was in Arkansas this weekend attending graduation at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville and probed him further about the Heat's offseason thus far.

What do you feel like your most successful move this offseason has been so far?
One of the trades that's yet to be announced. It's the one very few people outside the Heat organization know about, but it's the trade that will help us chart the course for our future just as much, if not more than the Chris Paul blockbuster. And yes, it's the Richard Jefferson deal.

Can you give us any hints on that? Where is R-Jeff headed? Even the conference would be a great help to all Miami's wondering fans.
Sorry, but I've been so amused by the complete lack of speculation that I'm going to keep that one under my hat. You'll see what it is once renouncements are complete.

Speaking of trading, your name has been repeatedly linked to the Toronto Raptors' stars, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Pierce recently got shipped to San Antonio. Does this mean the KG to Miami rumors are true?
Well, we said we were trading the #16 pick and one of the 2014 1sts we hold for a player that would push us firmly in the competing camp. And where did Sergio Llull's rights go? Orlando.

So it's somebody from the Magic then?
That would certainly appear to be the case wouldn't it? Unless it was a three way. Then it could be any team and any player. I will say this, though. Kevin's a perimeter shooter and Jestorball calls for the PF to be an inside shooter. We're also known to be actively looking for a starting SF and if we were getting KG, we'd play him at the 3, because his skill set doesn't match what we're looking for at PF.

You're not going to give a straight answer on this, are you?
Correct.

All right, any other moves you've got lined up besides the two verbals?
We've hold extensive talks throughout the offseason concerning a player that greatly intrigues us, but we're not willing to pay the current asking price and aren't going to budge. So, that deal probably won't happen, but that's okay. Other than that, things have been very quiet. There's a team that keeps asking about our verbaled players and offered a terrific deal for Ramon Sessions, but we had to turn it down, obviously, much as it pained me to do so. Getting CP3 alleviated much of that pain, as you can imagine.

You're quite high on Derrick Byars, to the point where you're considering starting him at SF. What about Milovan Radkovic?
Strictly a bench player. To be honest, I don't know much about him. All I know is, we were very impressed with the way his game improved in the pre-draft tournament after a shaky start. That told us he has the perseverance to fight through struggles and the intelligence to adapt to unfamiliar situations, and quickly.

Why didn't you take a young player? Byars is 25 and Radkovic is 24. Wouldn't it have been better to take a youngster, at least at 59, to start preparing for the future?
When you're a contending team, you need to get the most polished players, especially when you have a hole at SF and a weak bench like we do currently. That made Double-V a no-brainer and while Radkovic was a flier, he proved his toughness in the high-pressure pre-draft games.

Let's move on to a more global topic. How do you see the Southeast shaping up this season with the rosters as they stand?
A lot of people are talking about how Charlotte's taken a step back next year. It's more like a half-step. They'll still be in the conversation for the division title next season and what's even better for Bobcat fans, they've positioned beautifully to stay relevant for the next 10 years.

Washington as #2 seed contenders is hilarious. They'll be somewhat improved with the addition of Steven Hunter, but I say at most, the Wizards win 50 games. That might be enough to win the division; the 76ers won the Atlantic last year with 48 last year, after all. But I don't see it. Not with how significantly some of the other teams in the division will have improved. As for the #2 seed? Not a chance in hell. They won't be a #7 or #8 seed or whatever they were last year, but they're nowhere near the level of a #2 seed, either. My guess is they project about a #5 or #6 seed. #4 at absolute best.

Atlanta is always the hardest team to get a read on, because of how the Hawks play. You can never completely discount them from the division title chase, but that said, I don't know that they have the star power to contend again next year, especially with Peja Stojakovic getting another year older. I will say this, though. I absolutely love T.J. Ford and if our hands weren't tied with our cap space, we would move to acquire him. Although he's a little short for what we like to see from our point guards in Jestorball, in every other facet, he's the perfect fit for our system.

The Orlando Magic will be dangerous in two or three years' team. Their GM has proven a winner before and he's in the process of forming his squad into the type of outfit that wins with his system, just as we have Jestorball here in Miami. I predict they'll break the 20 win barrier this year, maybe even get to 25 or 30, depending on how DeAndre Jordan reacts to his new surroundings.

I think we'll be very much in the discussions for the Southeast division crown. I'm not bold enough to say we win it outright or even that we're on the odds-ons favorites after all is said and done, but we'll be right up there. We *will* make the playoffs this year, and you can take that to the bank.

How do you see the East overall turning out?
Detroit is #1 of course, but picking up Kobe Bryant and Elton Brand immediately turned the Knicks into the #2 seed and no other team is even in that stratosphere.

The closest is probably the Cavaliers, who got the guy we've have taken at #5 if we still had the pick in Stephon Curry. We love Curry and would love to see him in a Heat uniform at some point in his NLL career. And then you have a whole host of other teams below them, including us.

So you don't see the Heat as title contenders this season?
I didn't say that necessarily. Once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. That said, a more realistic prediction is that we go for the Southeast title and a minimum #4 seed this season and then in 2013 go for the ring.

What about the West?
I'm not as familiar with the West as I am the East, so I'll just quick-hit that my picks for the divisions are New Orleans or San Antonio in the Southwest, because the Spurs have a hell of a duo in Ricky Rubio and Paul Pierce; Portland in the Northwest and #1 overall seed; and probably the Kings in the Pacific, but it won't be an 18 game cakewalk. In fact, I say Sacramento wins the division by less than 5 games and not because of improvements by other teams in the division, either, although I do really like Phoenix's grab of Joe Johnson. It's because Sac-town is headed straight for a Robert Douglas-style trainwreck.

Finals picks?
A repeat of the Detroit/Portland Finals. The Blazers will make it much interesting with Big Ben Wallace, but ultimately it's the Pistons prevailing yet again. Unless Lebron James gets held hostage or breaks his leg or something.

Context Notes
God, I hated that apartment. It was dark, gloomy, and frequently invaded by cockroaches, not least because my roommates would keep leaving food out to sit even though I kept telling them to throw the food out or put it in the freezer/fridge. They'd leave it out for days at a time, and when I finally couldn't stand the smell of the decaying food anymore, and would see the skitter of cockroaches at night when I turned the light on at night, so I'd throw the food out, they'd get mad at me. The landlords were assholes and my roommates took off at the end of the year, going back to their homeland. They left the apartment a completely trashed mess, and guess who got stuck with the almost $800 cleaning and repairs bill?

Yeah, me. And the roommates were long since out of the country, with no way of getting a hold of them. So I had to foot the entire bill, when I couldn't afford it. I'm just thankful my family was able to help me out, though they shouldn't have had to. It still makes me angry and I still hold a lot of resentment over it.

Okay, sorry. Rant over. I had a lot of fun writing this Q&A - really laid our plans out and put things in context. Funny how much has changed with the division, the East, and the league as a whole since the time the article was written.

Washington, by the way, deserves special note here. Matt, the long-time Wizards GM, was one of those guys who year after year would put together teams that looked good on paper, but year after year, they would either miss the playoffs or, on the very rare occasion they did, bomb out in the first round. Talk about heartache for a fanbase.

But that's how it goes sometimes. Some GMs just don't ever figure out the nuances. Most GMs it takes a while and there's very much a learning curve transitioning from SP to MP. A very rare few transition quickly and make immediate impact.

I'm not one of those latter guys, despite all my SP experience. Remember, this was my second stint in this league - the first was a forgettable, terrible experience in Orlando where I was completely unprepared. This time, things would be different.

...Or so I hoped. But one of the big low points is coming soon.

[Izulde]

Lawson A Lock To Leave; Hart, Araujo Still Possible Returns

PG Ty Lawson sustained a foot cramp from sitting on the bench so much during the Dan Donovan in Miami last season

The Miami Heat informed PPI and MCI last night of their intentions concerning the respective agencies' clients who are impending free agents in South Florida. PG Ty Lawson is a certainty not to return, while PG Jason Hart and C Rafael Araujo could still be back in black and orange next season.

Lawson, 23 next season, was extremely erratic and inconsistent when given a handful of starts after Heat GM Jestor took over, and that inconsistency, coupled with his smallness at 5'11, 195 lbs, spelled the end for the former Tarheel star.

Hart, 34 next season, wowed the front office with terrific shooting accuracy and good floor generalship off the bench last season. Miami, like Chicago, places a premium on accurate shooters and the traits Hart displayed, along with his 6'3 frame, mean the Heat are good candidates to bring the veteran back, if they can find the money to retain him.

Araujo, 32 next season, is a toss-up. He has the rebounding talent and good size for the post, but his love of the jumpshot is well-known to be in violation of Jestorball principles for a center and his accuracy is a touch iffy for a big man. Reports say Miami will still keep him on their radar, but also investigate other avenues.

Because of the Heat's precarious financial situation, all three contracts will be renounced to clear cap space for impending verbals. Of the two free agents still in play, Hart seems the much more likely to be back in South Florida.

Jestor has refused to comment on possible free agents, although it's believed the Heat will be looking for depth in all areas and a starting small forward, should one slip under the radar. Miami's scouts are currently scouring the lists, searching for potential bargains once free agency hits.

After Months Of Secrecy, it's R-Jeff for Asik

New Heat PF Omer Asik is also a member of Turkey's national team

One of the great mysteries of the offseason was just who Miami Heat scoring small forward Richard Jefferson would be traded for. That answer came to light today when GM Jestor announced a three-way deal that sends Jefferson to the Cavaliers for young, 7-foot Turkish big man Omer Asik. Cleveland also sends Al Harrington and their 2013 and 2015 2nds to the Toronto Raptors for the Raptors 2015 2nd round selection.

"We lacked two things in our front court - shotblocking and youth", Jestor said, "Omer fills both of those roles for us and he has potential to be an excellent inside scoring threat with superb discipline and shotblocking to go with good rebounding and defense. He's a developed blocker already and has good passing and handling for a big man, with the ability to only get better. We see him as a key part of our team, not only now, but in the future, and will do what it takes to ensure he stays in a Miami Heat uniform for years to come."

The only question surrounding the Asik acquisition is whether or not he will start. Under the roster as currently composed, Asik would be the starter at power forward, the other starting five composed of Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, 2nd round draft pick Derrick Byars and Pau Gasol, the lone holdover starter from last season's 27-55 underachievers.

But getting a promising young big man wasn't the only benefit of the deal.

"We also now have the cap space to pursue our final verbaled deal", Jestor noted. "While we're still likely going to have to fill out the roster with guys who care much more about the chance of a championship run and a shot at extended bench playing time than money, I feel the third trade in the series of mini or genuine blockbusters is the one that ultimately puts us in position to challenge for a ring."


Will Richard Jefferson find girls this sultry in Cleveland?

Jefferson, 32 next season, was the Heat's leading scorer last year, averaging 19.5 points a game in 69 starts before injury forced him to sit out the remainder of the season. He brings solid all-around ability with proven scoring and defense to a young Cavaliers team who will greatly welcome his veteran leadership.


Veteran SF Al Harrington and his awesome hairstyle are headed north to Canada

Harrington, also 32 next year, is a $9.1 million expiring contract and one who immediately upgrades Toronto's perimeter game after the Paul Pierce trade left the Raptors bereft of an accurate shooting swingman. Now the Toronto faithful can rest easy that the hideously shooting Dorell Wright will not plague the Great White North with his awful shot selection and form for 30+ minutes a game as a starter.

Reports Suggest Miami Mulling A Different Course

Was Zhuge Liang responsible for the rumored Heat change of heart?

"Those who are skilled in combat do not become angered; those who are skilled at winning do not become afraid. Thus the wise win before they fight, while the ignorant fight to win." - Zhuge Liang The Way of the General

Could the Miami Heat be making a strategic retreat? Sources in South Florida say that an unintended consequence of the trade that sent Richard Jefferson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Omer Asik in a three way deal with the Toronto Raptors has been the inquiry and offer of players by numerous teams around the league looking to take advantage of Miami's freshly created cap space.

At least one of those offers is believed to greatly intrigue Miami Heat GM Jestor and have put the blockbuster trade that would have committed the Heat to a championship or bust mode in the next two years in jeopardy.

"I think the mood around the front office is one of uncertainty that this new team with the original verbal deal could develop enough chemistry and cohesiveness to capture a trophy in so short a time frame", one front office employee said.

This uncertainty, coupled with Jestor's alleged recent tendency to quote from Zhuge Liang and The Romance of the Three Kingdoms around the office, have reportedly spurred Miami to very seriously consider taking an alternate route that will still see the team be very competitive and in playoff contention, but with a much longer window than the first verbal.

According to the employee, speaking on condition of anonymity, the other parties in the verbal have been contacted and the basic framework of an alternate deal is in place, one that would be much less of a blockbuster, but still fairly significant for those involved.

"Basically, it seems like the GM isn't confident that this team is ready to win it all right now or in the next two seasons, even with the superstar addition we had planned and he wants to see the chemistry Chris Paul has with the rest of the guys and how Omer Asik develops before he commits to going for it all", confided the source.

The source hastened to re-emphasize that the Heat still planned on pursuing a playoff spot in the powerful East this season; it was simply a matter of whether a title was a realistic expectation or whether it was postseason experience for the squad and a possible second round appearance was the hoped-for result.

The original verbal could still go through if the other avenue of exploration runs into a dead end and the Heat have renewed confidence in their ability to contend with the result of the deal.

In any case, the already eventful Miami offseason just got a lot more intriguing.

Context Notes
The low point is coming next. As is becoming usual, three articles in one.

A lot of people bashed this deal of Richard Jefferson for Omer Asik (though it became a three way after Toronto jumped in). Funny thing is, these days it'd probably be applauded, given the massive amount of cap space it freed up.

As for the results of it, and the CP3/Cook deal, and the low point... well, that's all eventually down the road. I will say, though, on paper, Asik looked like a great fit - 7 footer with blocking, passing, and handling ability.

[Cap Ologist]

Still reading, by the way are roster files compatible between versions? Like can the 95-96 roster for pb1 be used to start a career with pb2?

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Cap Ologist

Still reading, by the way are roster files compatible between versions? Like can the 95-96 roster for pb1 be used to start a career with pb2?

Not officially, no. The league obviously did manage to transition from 1 to 2, but it involved weeks of two or three people manually creating the league file from scratch and running tests to try and have some accuracy, and even then there were a number of players who got a lot better and a number of players who got wrecked in the transition process.

[Izulde]

Stunning Contract Accompanies Myles, Pistons 2013 1st

Some in the NLL community were horrified to learn of Monty Myles' new 6 year, $10.35 million base contract with the Miami Heat

With the Detroit Pistons facing a hard cap crunch, it was no surprise that the three-time defending champions sign and traded young swingman Monty Myles. What surprised the league was the Miami Heat's suddenly swerving to snap up the 25 year old to be entering his fourth season.

For the price of the Miami Heat's 2014 1st at Top 5 protection and L.R. Mbah a Moute, the Heat received Myles and the Detroit Pistons' 2013 1st round selection, in a draft that reports to be one of the deepest in professional basketball history. But Myles also comes with a negotiated 6 year, $10.35 million base contract that caused GMs around the league to cry it was overpaying for a player who some believe has a higher rating on reputation and potential than actual production.

It's even more unusual a move when one considers that Myles has yet to prove himself as a consistently accurate shooter, which is one of the hallmarks of Jestorian basketball philosophy. But a closer look at the context and situation of Myles himself, the Heat, and Jestor himself, reveal that this is a smarter play than a few critics would like to believe.

First, although Monty does not have a consistent shooting record, his first few seasons in the league have shown continued improvement, and his otherworldly work ethic and durability should allow him to continue that climb to his All-Star, if not outright franchise player potentials.

He will be given every opportunity to reach his considerable ceiling, for he will serve as the Heat's starting SF, possibly occasionally switching to SG, depending on matchups. Monty's never been given a full-time starting opportunity at the NLL level and Miami puts him in a place to flourish and grow alongside such luminaries as Chris Paul and Pau Gasol.

Secondly, the Heat were in desperate need of a legitimate three. Monty fits the bill and is already fairly well developed on the defensive and discipline end, with the potential to only get better. At 25, the same age Daequan Cook will be next year, with Paul 27 and Omer Asik 24, there is a core four to serve as Miami's foundational group, even as Gasol slips into his decline phase.

That is not to say the Heat are rebuilding. Far from it. Paul and Gasol alone will ensure Miami is in the playoff conversation and continued development and evolution throughout the season from Myles and Asik will position the team as a potential lower playoff seed in the powerhouse East, with the squad's brightest days in the future as they shift gear into a contender two or three seasons down the road.

Furthermore, had Miami acquired Kevin Garnett, as is rumored was originally planned, the Heat would have had to win a title in 2013 or 2014. And with the precariously thin depth the trade would have left the team with, and the incredibly short window, the chances of gold were quite slim, especially after the New York Knicks made the blockbuster deal to land both Kobe Bryant and Elton Brand, positioning themselves with the Pistons and Cavaliers as the clear-cut top three teams in the East, with everyone else fighting it out for a 4 seed at best.

Now, with the much longer window acquired by Myles, a move that makes much more sense with the Paul/Cook/Asik trio, there is no pressure-cooker sense of urgency and chemistry can develop in the comfortable, yet still competitive environment of a legitimate playoff-aspirant with a brilliant future, as opposed to the identity-seeking rough road of a rebuilder.

They also keep much of their depth, including Earl Watson's fair-sized expiring contract, and pick up a late first round pick in a draft that translates into a mid-first value wise because of 2013's depth. It is also worth noting that the 2013 class is reportedly deepest in big men, which is also Miami's weakest area at present and so the Pistons pick gives them another opportunity to bulk that up.


L.R. Mbah a Moute fits in to Detroit's defensive mantra

Also remember that a Moute and Brian Scalabrine on the same team is a superfluous pairing, for both are defensive specialist forwards with poor shooting accuracy. Hence, to see one of them go has very little impact on Miami's fortunes, as neither rated highly in the eyes of the coaching staff or the front office.

And finally, there is Jestor himself. He is well-known for his hatred of the free agency game, preferring to build teams through drafting and trading, and this move positions the Heat to do that better. And although Myles's contract is considerable, at no point does it even come close to Garnett's $20 million, just to give a comparison, so there is significantly greater short-term financial flexibility in addition to the longer window when looking at the two.

Jestorball also calls for a big, talented scoring and shooting guard who is a good ballthief. Myles has the potential to fill that role, and should the Heat find another starting SF option that suits their philosophy, Myles can step into what is commonly called among Jestorball disciples as the Mateen Yeaton role.

Of course, there are still some problems to be worked out. Sergio Llull is not yet on the Magic as previously promised, and while the Miami Heat still have a little bit of cap room available thanks to dealing a Moute, they're still likely to have to go the min-sal route to fill their remaining spots. The good news is, there's fewer spots and more wiggle room than the team originally thought. The two Florida teams are currently in discussions to try and get a trade done that's acceptable to both parties.

And so continues what has been a season of dramatic upheaval and big moves by Jestor, a radical re-invention of the Miami Heat that has been alternately praised and criticized, depending on the changes discussed. While the result of this extreme makeover is yet to be seen, and while the alterations are not fully finished due to roster spots and the Llull situation, one thing is clear.

The Heat will be a much better team and a much more fun on-court project to watch next season than they were at any point last year.

***

Context Notes
Annnnnnnnnnd here's the low point.

I despise people who break verbals, yet I did it here. It's the only verbal I've ever broken and I still feel bad about it (although karma would later come back to bite me in the rear on this in a huge way... but that's a few seasons down the road).

My comment about Monty Myles, who by the way is a fake player generated when the league was starting to run out of real players, having All-Star, if not franchise potential, was one of the league's favorite punchlines for a while, especially Erick in Orlando, who had it as his signature for a time.

Thing was, on the face of it, he really did have great potential. The big mistake I made was in not checking his shot preferences to see how I could make him better. I only looked his ratings and his playoff numbers, the latter of which increased considerably in his second season, so I figured he was due to be a breakout star.

And yes, much of this was me still hunting for the Mateen Yeaton of the Heat, that big SG who would dazzle the league. How this whole Myles thing turned out was quite fascinating in the end, really.

[Izulde]

Youngish Quality Big Would Significantly Bolster Miami's Bench

27 year old PF Cedric Simmons could be the tonic to heal the Heat's post bench woes

The Miami Heat have officially extended a contract offer to Clippers forward Cedric Simmons. Terms of the offer were not revealed, but it's believed that the Heat plan to make Simmons the top reserve big man on their roster, with a few spots when his defensive brilliance is called for in the post.

Simmons' defense, rebounding and shotblocking all address areas of weakness in Miami's bench and post game and he would provide the Heat a youngerish veteran post player to join Pau Gasol and youngsters Omer Asik and Milovan Rakovic.

"He's the perfect fit for us as far as our needs and situation" a front official of the Miami Heat said, "I think it's fairly to safe that we'll be targeting him heavily to convince him to sign."

Jestor Goes On Vacation In Midst of Monty Myles Furor

Cafe Futbol in Granada, Spain has arguably the best churros con chocolate` in the entire country

Miami Heat GM Jestor doesn't mind the hot summer temperatures of southern Spain and he's relaxed as he dips a churro in a cup of thick, liquid chocolate at Cafe Futbol, one of Granada's most famous landmarks. In a way, it's cooler here than in the United States, where his trade for Detroit's Monty Myles ignited a firestorm of controversy. Yet, even with that criticism, he remains as media friendly as ever, agreeing to an interview about the basketball team he's so radically altered.

What do you think about all this flak you've been getting for Monty Myles, particularly his contract?
It's a risk. You know that, I know that, the world knows that. If it goes sideways, we may very well be stuck as a tweener team with a contract that's ultimately unmoveable. But I don't see the worst case scenario happening. I think the other extreme, the best case scenario, where Monty develops into the type of perfect shooting guard for Jestorball, a 6'7, 200+ lb 2 guard who can take over games with scoring, play underrated defense and cause matchup problems, who, when you get down to it, is an All-Star, if not a potential franchise player. And if that happens, then you have the makings of a championship contender on our team, just later than we originally anticipated.

The one thing that irritates me, however, are all these damned Chicken Littles panicking because the Pistons have our 2014 1st. Our projections are that absolute worst, it ends up a mid-1st selection. People seem to be forgetting that we still have Pau Gasol and we picked up Chris Paul and Daequan Cook in the offseason. Furthermore, if Monty and Omer Asik develop, we're situated even better to be a legitimate playoff threat. Don't forget, we've got our own 2013 1st, Detroit's 2013 1st as part of this trade, and our own and Atlanta's 2013 2nds in arguably the deepest class in history. That's a lot of ammunition to get a lot better very quickly.

And of course, we have Top 5 protection on that pick as well. So you won't see a repeat of this year. That's a gurantee.

Some have suggested that you could have had both Kevin Garnett and Monty Myles, and put yourselves in contention this season. What are your thoughts on that?
No. That wasn't going to happen. Remember, Garnett's making $20 million a year. That's a full third of the salary cap. As it was, we would have had to trade Earl Watson and Darren Collison just to fit his contract under it. That leaves absolutely no cap space to even think about pursuing Monty, especially given that there were several competitors interested in him, just not at $10 million base.

I mean, it's nice to think that it's possible, but there was no basis for it in reality. Not to mention, we would have lost all financial flexibility for the next two years and been fighting the hard cap. That's not a position you ever want to be in, especially with a team that hasn't played together, with the exception of Paul and Cook in Minnesota.

It came down to, was it better to get Garnett and make a championship run, knowing that our bench would be completely depleted and one injury would kill our aspirations, or was it better to roll the dice on Monty and, much as the Bobcats did, take a step or two back to better move forward in two or three seasons with a longer window. Obviously, you can see the direction we chose.

We've noticed Sergio Llull still isn't in Orlando like everyone expected. Can you shed some light on the situation?
I'll admit, when we decided to go with Myles, it caused some consternation on all sides. We came up with a new plan that satisfied everyone, but then one of the teams, quite fairly in my opinion, pulled back and the three way died. The Raptors and Magic negotiated separately to get their side of the triangle completed, with Eddie Sessoms going to Toronto for a package of picks, but things are in a bit of a stall here.

Essentially what it's boiling down to in our discussions is that we in Miami aren't nearly as high on the piece we would be getting back as we once were. A couple of factors tie into this. First, closer scouting has us thinking the player's likely not as good as we first thought. Second, and in some ways perhaps most importantly, we have a player who fills the same role, and, from what we've seen so far, will be excellent in that role. That makes acquiring this player from the Magic superfluous in the same way that having L.R. Mbah a Moute and Brian Scalabrine on the same team was a touch in excess.

I'm not saying a deal is dead. But right now I'd probably say it's on life support. Orlando doesn't want to have to give up more than they originally promised in the three way and we're not wholly comfortable with the asking price, especially given our recent devaluation of the Magic player in question.

So are you saying that Llull is on the block? And don't you think if you break this, it will reflect negatively on you with the rest of the league?
I won't say Sergio is directly on the block, but I will say we'll listen if other teams come calling about him. It's not a situation we're in any hurry about in any case. As it is, we'd have to include another player right now because Sergio's contract doesn't count for trading purposes, which is another minor sticking point in our current discussions with Orlando.

With regards to my reputation with the rest of the league, it's very possible there could be fallout from this and that teams will be wary of dealing with me in the future. But on the other hand, I've proven reliable and honorable in my dealings for the most part. I point to the fact that when I decided we were going with Monty, we worked hard to renegotiate the trade so that Orlando would still get Sergio and Toronto would still get Eddie, giving both partners the pieces they coveted the most. It fell through because, as I said, one of the partners pulled out.

The only other time besides this current situation with the Magic was, ironically, when I was with Orlando and there was that whole four-way deal that would have brought Marvin Williams to Orlando. The trade was voided by the Trade Union and we decided to look elsewhere, much to the rage of the Washington Wizards mostly, and perhaps one or two other teams. The same question came up then, and, as I think you've seen, it hasn't greatly impacted our ability to make deals.

What are your plans for the rest of the offseason?
Priority #1 will be signing Cedric Simmons. We've released a small article declaring our interest and are quite keen to get him into south Florida. He'll bring so much to our team and fill voids we currently have that we're really hoping we can land him. In fact, I'll be inviting him and the rest of the team here to Granada next week, where we can shoot the breeze, talk about the upcoming season, and so on.

Beyond that and the Llull situation, I think we'll be pretty quiet. Right now we have 12 guys on the roster, including Llull. If we sign Simmons and trade Llull + another player for a player or if it's Llull for a pick, we'll still be at 12 and will probably look at signing another min-sal guy or two for depth.

Are you still convinced you can make the playoffs next year in the stacked East?
Yes. But no higher than a 7 or 8 seed. This next season is about building chemistry, developing Monty and Omer and getting in the postseason to get some playoff chemistry between these guys. It's after that we start moving up the ranks.

What do you see as being critical to mount that championship challenge in future seasons?
We have to make good selections with our 2013 picks, at bare minimum in the first round, although the second round would be good as well. Remember, we also still own the Spurs 2014 1st, so getting lucky there would help too, although the West is so weak, I'm worried San Antonio can be a playoff team by then.

Obviously Monty needs to pan out and we also have to make sure we manage our financial situation closely. One of the advantages to going with Monty over Garnett is the extra money we have in future years, money that will be especially critical to re-signing Omer after this season, who is certainly going to command a significantly larger dollar amount than he owns right now.

I think we have the pieces in place to be a contending side in two or three seasons. It's just going to take shrewd management and a little bit of luck, much like what happened to establish the Detroit dynasty and what happened to turn the Cavaliers into a powerhouse in two seasons.

***

Context Notes
Two articles this time.

Simmons was a guy we really wanted to add to our bench. We had Pau Gasol as inherited from the previous team, and made the trade for Omer Asik. I forget now whether Rafael Araujo was an FA or still had one more year on his contract, but the fact of the matter was, our post depth was looking scary tenuous, with Brian Scalabrine and second round rookie Milan Radkovic the only guys that I think were locked up for the next season.

As the interview indicates, there was a huge amount of blowback from the broken verbal, even though we tried to fix it. Funny how the two instances where trades ended up going another way pissed off someone from the Southeast while I was in that division.

For what it's worth, I don't consider the previous example a broken verbal. In my opinion, when a Trade Union blocks a trade, it's hitting the reset button and neither team/GM is ethically obligated to work something else out, though most do.

[Izulde]

Heat Players; Simmons Meet GM In Spain; Discuss Future

Miami Heat GM Jestor poured the tea for everyone in his favorite tea house in Granada Spain

Summer in southern Spain is infamously hot, Seville famous as the Frying Pan of Europe. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they were in more hospitable environments for the offseason team meeting in Granada.

Derrick Byars, Milovan Rakovic, and Sergio Llull did not make the trip due to summer league participation, but the rest of the team's contracted players met up with GM Jestor, along with free agent target Cedric Simmons.

The group refreshed itself at Jestor's favorite teahouse, drinking Turkish Passion tea in honor of Omer Asik, much to the big man's amusement, and whiled away some time with hookah smoking and conversation, with each other and with this journalist.


Chris Paul is thrilled to be in Miami

"It's a great situation we've got going here", new franchise face Chris Paul remarked after a hookah hit, "I mean, this is a team that won 27 games last year and looked completely lost. So the owner fires the old GM and gets Jestor. Within a few months, completely different team. I like it. Me and Daequan are going to go great together with Pau, Monty, and Omer in the starting lineup and Anthony, Derrick, and hopefully Cedric here, are gonna rock the bench. A lot of people want to diss us, saying it's just me and Pau on this team, but Daequan's awesome too, and we're going to show the league that next season and the years to come."

Monty Myles, the Miami's newly minted $10 million man, voiced awareness of the situation facing him and the Heat.

"It's all on me now. Jestor made that huge investment in money and that pick in me and now I have to go out there and show I'm worth it. Yeah, it's pressure, but it's a good pressure. I love these guys already and we're gonna do really good things together. I don't know if it'll happen right away, cuz me and Omer, we still got a lotta things to learn, but I think we can step up and be the men, learning from CP and Pau who been in this league a long time and are winners, and from the coaches."

After tea and hookah, it was on to Granada's most famous landmark, the Alhambra.


Part of the Alhambra

It was there that the first note of somberness sounded in what had been a festive, cheerful gathering, when Pau Gasol spoke to me separately and suggested that he might not be in Miami for all of next year.


Could Pau Gasol's intuition be right?

"I know when Jestor first took the Heat, he wanted to make a championship team for me", Gasol said. "But we do not have Kevin Garnett and maybe when Miami is ready, I am too old to be as good as I am now. It is smart to trade me now, while I can bring a fantastic part to the team."

Pau leaned over the railing and looked out into the fading purple twilight sky, his face thoughtful.

"But if I know Jestor, he will not trade me. He is loyal to his most trusted players like El Cid to Alfonso the Sixth. His heart is first, his mind second sometimes. I think it maybe is bad for the Heat, but who knows? In me Jestor trusts, in Jestor I will trust."

Later that evening, reserves Earl Watson, Brian Scalabrine, Darren Collison, Anthony Morrow and prospective member Cedric Simmons all went to a tapas bar near the University of Granada's Center for Modern Languages for drinks and tapas.


Brian Scalabrine contemplating his words

Scalabrine, who has the longest tenure with the Heat from 2006-2008 and this past season, dominated the conversation.

"Let's face it. Me, Earl, and Darren will all be gone after next season, if we're not traded somewhere before then. It's pretty clear that none of us have a role in the team's future and that's just business in the NLL. But Anthony isn't going anywhere. From what I hear, a lot of teams wanted him, but Jestor loves him and he doesn't let go of players that are his favorites.

As far as you go, Cedric, I don't know what kind of deal they're offering you, but you've got a good opportunity with this team. You'll get a ton of minutes and this team's on the upswing. If they're offering you a one year contract, I'd think about taking it. It gives you a chance to show what you can do in Miami, then get more money next offseason."

I remarked that so far, the Heat are the only ones to aggressively pursue Simmons through media channels and the others nodded their agreement.

"That's the thing about Jestor", Scalabrine said, "Remember when he was with Orlando? Guys in the league still talk about that draft day party he threw with the Victoria's Secret models and even though he had no shot at getting Amar'e (Stoudamire), he still went after him hardcore, pulling out all the stops. If he wants a player, he'll go after him. Like now, for instance. He's given Cedric a free trip to Spain and taken us sightseeing and all that. He's like the Mark Cuban of GMs."

Although Simmons declined to comment on where he was leaning, the day in Granada, followed by a trip to the beaches of Costa del Sol, with all their barechested beauties and the the stunning waters of the Mediterranean, no doubt gave him something to think about it.

Whether Simmons signs with the Heat or not and whether Pau is traded or not, Miami will once again be an exciting basketball town and may someday soon return to the glory days of 2008 and 2009, when the team won back to back division titles.

Media Efforts; Spanish Vacation Not Enough

In the end, it came down to money. The Memphis Grizzlies were able to offer a longer contract with far more cash than the Miami Heat and for Cedric Simmons, who was struggling to decide which minimum salary offer to take, the choice was clear.

"It's disappointing", GM Jestor said. "But we perfectly understand where Cedric is coming from and wish him the best of luck in Memphis."

No word yet on what Miami will do next.

Changes May Still Be Afoot, But Starting Five Set

A rare photograph of Miami Heat GM Jestor after he went into hiding

The Miami Heat underwent a massive makeover this offseason, the change so extreme only big man Pau Gasol expects to be a repeat starter from last season. With the controversial acquisition of raw, but promising Monty Myles from the Detroit Pistons, the expectations in South Florida have been downgraded to a playoff appearance, but is that really within the Heat's grasp?

Point Guard


Chris "CP3" Paul is the unquestioned starter at the one spot and many expect him to be Miami's franchise face, both immediately and for the next several seasons. The trade that netted him and another probable Opening Night starter drew plaudits for Jestor from around the league, press, and blogosphere, as Paul gives the Heat identity they lacked.

Earl Watson is a solid, steady defensive presence who knows his role and won't take shots, but his greatest value may be his significant expiring contract. Darren Collison has drawn considerable interest around the league for his quality all-around upside and he showed enough last season that he'll likely get a look as the team's #2 or #3 point guard.

Shooting Guard


Daequan Cook projects as the starter, because the front office is in love with his all-around game, particularly his level of discipline and basketball awareness. He and Paul have experience working together in Minnesota last season, so the adjustment period should be smaller than it is. Two small knocks against Cook: He's not as tall or as big as the ideal Jestorball system calls for, nor is his passing exceptional.

A lot of teams have been calling about Anthony Morrow, the instant jolt of scoring off the bench. Don't count on him going anywhere, as Jestor overvalues him and the coaching staff will probably arrange it so that he's the primary scorer whenever he's on the court. Rookie Sergio Llull is still being shopped and could be gone before training camp, but if he's locked into the Day 90 rule, look for him to get minutes to showcase his abilities until he's traded.

Small Forward

Since I don't know what player is being used for Monty Myles, I'm choosing my favorite picture of the moment

Monty Myles comes to town with major expectations and pressures on him. By necessity, he'll be a starter, likely at small forward, although it's quite possible he could be moved to shooting guard. In any case, he needs to show huge strides this season, or this will go down as a move every bit as bad as the Paul/Cook trade was good.

The organization is absolutely in love with rookie Derrick Byars, who had a quality all-around summer league and expects to play point guard, shooting guard, and small forward as the team's do-everything sixth man.

Power Forward


Omer Asik, obtained for Richard Jefferson, is in a situation similar to Myles. Both are fairly raw players being asked to step into starting roles and develop rapidly. The difference is, Asik's in the last year of his rookie contract and is playing for a much bigger deal, whether from Miami or from another team. Currently, the thinking is that he's a part of the Heat's long-term plans, but he'll have to earn it or he'll be dealt at the deadline.

For being the 59th pick in the draft, Milovan Rakovic looked pretty good in the summer league games. He'll fight with veteran defensive specialist Brian Scalabrine for minutes.

Center


Pau Gasol, as mentioned, is the lone carryover from the previous season, but he's also the only true center on the roster. Recent rumors have surfaced, suggesting that the Heat might go after Pau's brother, Marc Gasol from the Toronto Raptors, much as Jestor did with the Lopez twins in his brief stint with the Orlando Magic.

Breakdown AreaThoughts
The backcourt is the strength of this team, both in quantity and quality. Paul and Cook are worthy starters and Collison and Morrow, to say nothing of Byars, all have their roles to play and should do them well. Small forward is a wild card, depending on what happens with Llull. It's quite possible that he could win over the coaches in training camp and Myles/Llull becomes the 2/3 rather than Cook/Myles as presently predicted.

Where the Heat are weak is in the frontcourt. Asik is much more in the mold of a Jestorball four than Stanley Robinson was, and, of course, Pau is Pau, but the Spaniard is starting to decline just a little bit, paralleling his contract, and Rakovic is the only true depth, as Scalabrine is essentially a three. Miami struck out on free agent Cedric Simmons and as of press time, they've made no moves to acquire another big.

There's a clear-cut 1/2 outside/inside punch with Paul and Pau, and Morrow is the unquestioned gunner for the second team, but whether or not the Heat score enough outside of that is going to depend on how swiftly Asik and Myles develop.

The overall team defense is, again, strongest on the perimeter, but while there's a number of good defenders on the roster, there's no shut-down guy the Heat can plug in. Also, Asik, while high potential on the defensive end, again, needs to develop it. Miami could certainly use defensive help; perhaps Llull is better than the front office believes and can be that guy.

Rebounding will be a problem as well, as again, Asik has the ceiling to be a very good to great rebounder, but isn't there yet. Gasol will grab his share of boards and Rakovic a few, but like defense, there's no specialist on board here, and that's something the Heat could really use.

The one area Asik is already good in is shotblocking and he's expected to be the team leader in that category. Gasol can still bring in it that category, but depth is sadly lacking.

There's a quartet of quality ball-thieves in Paul, Cook, Myles, and Collison, and it's good enough that the Heat should be one of the better stealing teams in the league, especially if they bring on the defensive pressure.

Passing and handling, which the front office intends to make the team's trademark, along with shooting accuracy, should be extremely solid all around, and this area is the one reason why Simmons' rejection of the Heat may be a blessing, as he doesn't fit the mold. Again Asik has the ability to become one of the best passing/handling bigs in the game.

Overall Opinions
If the Miami Heat were in the West, they would probably project as a mid seed. But they're in the powerhouse East and, much as Jestor would like to claim this is a squad capable of a #7 or #8 seed, that's just not likely to happen. The conference is too strong and there's too many question marks, in the form of Myles and Asik's rawness and in the incredibly shallow frontcourt, for that to occur. More likely is that the Heat repeat their fourth place finish in the Southeast and go to the lottery, but with a Top 10-14 range rather than Top 5 as they were last year.

And of course, one injury could completely derail them.

Final Projection: 4th in Southeast, 35-40 wins

****

Context Notes
Heh, I'd forgotten that I brought the Lopez brothers (both of whom suck in the NLL, btw) together during my brief tenure in Orlando.

Anyway, in many ways this was a very typical first phase Jestorball team. Emphasis on passing, handling and shooting accuracy, with a need to address the defense. Rebounding is always going to be an issue with the style I run, because with the preaching of accuracy, there's not many boards to be had on the offensive end.

The way I usually go about constructing my teams in a rebuild goes something like this:

1. Find a star player or two to build around, one in the post and one on the perimeter. Check with Pau and Paul.

2. Build around strong passing, handling and shooting. Check.

3. Develop a deep backcourt, preferably with players able to play the 1/2, 2/3, or even 1/2/3, at least two of whom have good stealing talent. Check.

Once I have those three things taken care of, then I can start doing the tweaking I need to do in order to build a contender, usually by improving the team defense and finding guys who can bang it down low. After that, it's a matter of the finishing touches.

I was being a bit modest with the 35-40 wins, though. I was actually thinking we could get closer to 40-45 and hang with the 7/8 playoff seed, even in an obscenely talented East.

[Izulde]

CP3 O So Good; Byars Blasts Curry

Chris Paul certainly deserves a thumbs up for his first two exhibition games in a Heat uniform

Maybe this Miami team's better than a lot of people think.

The Heat certainly looked impressive in a pair of games that saw them beat a full-strength New Jersey Nets side 89-82 and knock off the new East darling Cleveland Cavaliers 105-94 in a road and home series.

Chris Paul got off to a banner start against the Nets, producing 27 points and 7 assists on 9/20 shooting, including 4/8 from downtown, and also scored 20 points versus the Cavaliers before fouling out. More significantly, he held young stars Derrick Rose and Mike Conley, Jr. respectively to 4/16 and 1/7 shooting.


Can Sergio Llull prove worthy of a starting spot and will he end up staying in Miami?

The Nets game also saw rookie Sergio Llull get a start and burst out for a surprising 19 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 blocks on 8/10 shooting. He also frustrated high-profile offseason pickup Marvin Williams all night long, limiting him to a ghastly 4/21 shooting, or 19% from the floor. Although he went just 2/7 against Cleveland and was schooled by former Heat Richard Jefferson, who went off for 23 points, it was still an impressive pair of games, considering Llull is just 6'3 and tiny to play the 3 even by league standards, let alone Jestorball rules.

Asked about the trade rumors swirling around him after the game, Llull replied through Pau Gasol as his interpreter, "The GM likes Spanish players. Did he forget I'm Spanish too? Whatever happens, happens. I just need to keep showing I can play well with the time and opportunities I am given."


Derrick "Double V" Byars - the man who loves V universities and the 3 point shot

Another surprise rookie showing came from Derrick "Double V" Byars who bumrushed Stephen Curry of the Cleveland Cavaliers for 24 points, including 6/11 from downtown, while limiting his much more lauded classmate to just 11 points. Byars also showed a trigger-happy long-range shot in the preseason opener, launching 12 attempts and hitting just 3 of them in New Jersey.

Pau Gasol and Omer Asik both struggled in each game to hit their shots and presently shooting 36.7% and 20% respectively, but they've made up for their inefficency somewhat by combining for 20 rebounds and 5 blocks a game (9 and 3 for Gasol, 11 and 2 for Asik). Asik is also showing flashes of all-around game, racking up an impressive 4 assists and 1.5 steals per game over the two contests.

"I'm not worried about Pau and Omer struggling right now", general manager Jestor said. "It's only preseason and while we're having trouble as a team shooting accurately right now, we're also doing extremely well with our 3 point shooting, 51%, which is better than everybody but the Celtics. We're only giving up 10 turnovers a game to 27 assists a contest and that's a damn good +17 ratio. That includes just 3 steals surrendered a game, better than anybody but the Hornets, and we're 5th in field goal percentage defense, too. We'll be just fine."

Jestor also indicated that the team is continuing its quest to improve its depth and could have an upgrade in place very soon.

Much heralded Monty Myles didn't start this set, but he did go 6/10 and a perfect 4/4 from behind the arc for 16 bench points and 5 rebounds against Cleveland.

Former Mizzou Star Expected To Be Top Reserve Big

A post-weak Miami Heat team welcomes youngster PF Leo Lyons

Although rookie Milovan Rakovic has been performing adequately in the summer league, the Miami Heat, with just a 12 man roster and only three legitimate big men total, were concerned for their frontcourt depth situation.

Enter Leo Lyons, a 23 year old drafted 58th overall in the 2010 draft out of Missouri, who has signed a one year min-sal deal. At 6'9, 225 lbs, he boasts a solid post game with the trademark good passing and handling that's a hallmark of Miami's new offensive philosophy. Although some scouts consider him a tweener, he can immediately slot in as Pau Gasol's backup and he may well get some minutes at center as well.

The coaching staff is expected to work with Lyons to better develop him as a post scorer and maximize him to his highest potential.

Despite 2 of 11 From Downtown, Paul Dominant

A successful Chris Paul Miami debut lead to a Heat win in the season opener

He was expected to be the leader of the team this season and in his first game, Chris Paul of the Miami Heat did just that.

Despite shooting 2 of 11 from 3 point range, Paul was dominant elsewhere, hitting 14/29 shots and 7/7 free throws for a game-high 37 points along with 5 rebounds and 5 assists en route to a 112-104 Miami win on the road against the Nets.

Backcourt partner Daequan Cook was just as impressive, racking up a double-double of 20 points and 10 assists on 7/13 shooting, 5/10 on 3-point attempts.

They picked up the slack for Pau Gasol, who was largely contained by recent Nets signing DeSanga Diop, and Monty Myles, who struggled to find his shooting stroke in his first game with Miami after signing a massive six year deal. He was just 5 of 17, 1 of 4 behind the arc, but did have 2 steals and a block.

Omer Asik, on the other hand, finally showed shooting accuracy he lacked in preseason, going 4 for 6 for 8 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal.

The Heat shot 46.2% as a team to 55.6% for the Nets, but as GM Jestor pointed out after the game, Miami didn't need to be accurate to win.

"We got this victory because we tore them up on the 3 point ball. 11/32 vs 2/7 is a 33 to 6 point differential. Most importantly though, we took care of the basketball. Both teams had 34 assists, but we had just 7 turnovers to the Nets' 18 and we also got 8 team steals to New Jersey's 2."

Miami faces a far stiffer challenge next, hosting the powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers in the Heat's home opener.

"It'll be good times", Myles said, grinning, "And hopefully the home fans can see the type of player I can be."

Cook Turning On The Heat

Daequan Cook has been a key player in Miami's 2-2 start

Go ahead. Laugh at his 4 turnovers per game, almost four times as many as second-worst Pau Gasol's 1.5 mishandles. He'll tell you he's the team leader in assists at 5 a game and, most importantly in the Jestorball creed, he's been accurate as hell.

That's right. Daequan Cook, regarded as an afterthought by nearly all but the Heat, Spurs, and Bulls in the Chris Paul blockbuster, leads Miami in assists and shooting accuracy among regular starters. Through the first four games, he's converted at a 55.3% rate and an eye-popping 45.8% from long-range on 24 attempts. That's translated into 14.3 points, tied for second on the team with Gasol behind Paul's 27.3.

"It's something I'm really proud of", Cook commented about his first week achievements. "A lot of people might look at that and say 5 assists leading the team isn't so great, but we're a team that shares the dimes. I got 5, Monty and CP got 4, Darren, Derrick, Omer they all got 3. It's shared love, baby."

Indeed, there's an esprit de corps on this Heat team already that wasn't present last season and despite an uneven start, a change in tactics resulted in an explosive win versus the Wizards and a restoration of hope that this could very well be a playoff team by season's end.

***

Context Notes
2-2 in the early going of the first regular season wasn't bad at all, in my opinion. As the articles posit, we were really riding our backcourt and Pau Gasol to a competitive team. In short, essentially what I expected when I did the season preview.

Oh, and best comment in this chain of articles goes to mgtr81, who said "a Jestoration of hope" sounded better.

[Izulde]

Heat Struggling To 2-4 Start; Rhythm Absent

Chris Paul has been the Heat's lone bright spot

Inconsistent performances and a complete team inability to put it all together have the Miami Heat with a somewhat surprising 2-4 start. Their lone good win was a home victory over the Washington Wizards and they've looked simply awful in each of their four losses.

Chris Paul has lived up to his billing, producing a breathtaking 28.7 points, third in the league with an eye-popping 50.4% conversion rate, 46% from 3 point range. Unfortunately, Pau Gasol has struggled a bit out of the gate, Monty Myles is nursing an abdominal injury, and no one has stepped forward to be the second option. Nor is there enough of a team balance to support Paul's mastery.

Among the Heat's dismal team rankings:

Rebounds - Dead last - 37 boards a game
Steals - 19th - 6.7 per contest, alarming in that Miami projected to be a steals-heavy team
Shooting % - 21st - 44.1
FT % - 29th - 65.5%
Points Allowed - Dead Last - 107.8/game
Assists Allowed - Dead Last - 32.7/game
Rebounds Allowed - Dead Last - 46.7/game
FG % Allowed - Dead Last - 52.7%
3 P % Allowed - 27th - 45.8%
Turnovers Forced - 23rd - 13.8/game

The only highlights for Miami:

Blocks Allowed - 2nd - 4.5/game
Turnovers Surrendered - 7th - 14/game

"Everybody talks about sample size and there's some truth to that" GM Jestor noted, "But the ghastly nature of our form is such that we're not even close to being a playoff worthy team. Certainly not in the East and frankly, given how we've played, maybe not even in the West. Changes will have to be made."

The revelations come after an offseason that saw an extreme makeover of the roster which finished so poorly last year. The facelift brought hopes of a playoff berth this season, but clearly, such aspirations seem but a fool's, nay, a Jestor's, dream at the moment.

Who's Hot, Who's Not In Miami Trade Rumors

Sergio Llull's departure has been rumored since the moment Miami picked him

The Miami Heat have improved to a 4-5 record and will go for .500 when they take on the Utah Jazz in their next game, but that still hasn't stopped trade rumors from swirling. GM Jestor is known for his quick trigger finger and in the wake of his vow to make changes, moves are expected.

The Desired, But The Staying

Chris Paul
A large number of teams called to inquire about the availability of the franchise face, who through 9 games is averaging 25 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.9 rebounds on 47.3% shooting, 44.9% from behind the arc. Jestor has repeatedly said Paul is absolutely not for trade. Even if the Heat were to consider dealing him, under the NLL Star Trade Restriction Rule, Paul qualifies as a 6-15 player, making him ineligible for trade until after the 2013-14 season.

The Hot Young Rookie

Sergio Llull
After Paul, the 16th overall pick has generated the most interest. Restricted until Day 90 under rookie trade rules, Llull dazzled defensively, shutting down Bucks guard O.J. Mayo in two games and holding to a combined 9 for 44 (20.5%), 1 for 19 from 3 point range (0.5%). Sources tell us frameworks of conversation around the young Spaniard have taken place with a few teams, but one scout says it'd be a mistake for Miami to deal him.

"They lack shutdown defenders and guys who can draw fouls", the scout said. "Sergio has the potential to develop into somebody special in both those areas. He has the passing, handling, and stealing ability Miami favors in its guards and his ability to drive inside and score in the interior adds a dimension to the Heat offense they'd miss if it was gone."

The Cooling One

Darren Collison
Collison was one of the most sought-after players after the draft and in free agency, but things turned quiet once the regular season hit. The 23 year old has look solid, averaging 4.9 points and a 3.0 A/TO ratio in just 12.7 minutes a game, but he's fighting a packed Heat backcourt with numerous PG and SG-capable players for more playing time. Although overpaid at $2.7 million, his contract expires at the end of the season and it's believed Miami is interested in keeping him if he isn't dealt.

The Surprisingly Popular Reserve

Brian Scalabrine
Teams seem to really like Scalabrine as a solid all-around veteran forward with a $2.5 million expiring contract, despite the fact that he's seen minimal minutes in Miami. He also doesn't care about playing time and makes a great locker room presence.

"Some of it's financial", our article scout observed. "His contract fits in perfectly for larger deals, but the fact that he's an underrated bench guy with good locker room chemistry elements has a lot to do with it too."

The Star Nobody Wants

Pau Gasol
Perhaps the greatest shock of what we're hearing out of Miami is that no team has inquired about Gasol, the team's leading rebounder and clear-cut #2 player, who's averaging 16.1 points, 10 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game. A Miami insider was as puzzled as we were.

"We're not sure what's going on, if it's his age or what. He's eligible for trade, because his Star Restriction passed on the 12th and it's the 16th now, but nobody's even asking about him. It's funny, the guy who won't be available for another year and a half is the one getting all the buzz, but the one available now and who could immediately elevate a team to championship contender status, is the one nobody wants."

Other Trade Rumors
The front office took a huge browbeating over Monty Myles's large contract in an offseason sign and trade with the Detroit Pistons, but according to insiders, at least one team is interested in acquiring him at the Day 90 changeover, possibly in a package with Llull. A source tells us that it's one of the teams most aggressively interested in Llull, but refused to comment on the progress of talks.

Anthony Morrow was a desired commodity in the offseason and at least one contender has expressed interest in acquiring him as a burst of bench scoring. It's possible he could go with a second round pick or two to acquire a raw, but promising prospect to fill weak spots in Miami's present roster makeup.

A team is said to be considering asking about Derrick Byars, another one of Miami's rookies. Byars has struggled to find a consistent rhythm or role in the Heat's setup thus far, but has excellent versatility to play the 1-3 and only needs a settled role to be more productive.

Earl Watson is a significant expiring contract at $6.3 million, but thus far there hasn't been much chatter surrounding the still talented pass and defense first veteran.

Watson, Collison to Charlotte for Francis, Brockman, 2014 2nd

Steve "Franchise" Francis did a lot of sitting in Charlotte this season

The deficiencies were clear on the Miami Heat in the early going this season. Defense and rebounding were both major issues for a team that started the year with playoff aspirations, but who have struggled their way to a 5-7 mark, unable to give Chris Paul much in the way of help.

Now that aid arrives following a trade with the division rival Charlotte Bobcats. The deal sends reserve point guards Earl Watson and Darren Collison along with Miami's own 2014 2nd to Charlotte in exchange for young forward Jon Brockman and veteran point guard Steve Francis.

Francis, 35, has appeared in just four games this season, averaging only 3 minutes per appearance. The 13th year veteran still has quality enough and steps in as Miami's top backup point guard with two years remaining on his contract, $7.7 million this season, $7.1 million next year. His scoring talents should help a Heat bench forced to over-rely on Anthony Morrow for its point production and his contract, although overpaid, turns expiring next year.


Quality defense couldn't get Earl Watson more playing time

Watson, like Francis, struggled to see substantial minutes at five games and 3.6 minutes a contest. His greatest asset is his immediate $6.2 million expiring contract, although he has the defense, passing and handling, to still contribute in his declining years.


Darren Collison was the Heat's top reserve PG this year

The Miami coaching staff showed a lot of faith in Darren Collison this season by making him the top backup to Chris Paul but although the 23 year old former UCLA star converted 42.9% of his 3 point attempts, he didn't show anywhere close to the stealing ability he was projected to and his $2.7 million expiring contract made him an attractive option to several teams.


Can Jon Brockman finally be the answer at SF?

Jon Brockman is the key to this trade for the Heat. A 6'7, 260 lbs rebounder with great passing and handling for a forward, the 23 year old one-time Washington Husky is instantly the Heat's best defender and should provide major help on the offensive glass. Extremely intelligent and disciplined, he also has an excellent ability to draw fouls, despite hideous free throw shooting numbers.

"He still needs work on his overall shooting form, but we'll work with him on that", Heat coach Flip Saunders said, "Jon addresses some of our problems, so hopefully he can help us get things turned around."

GM Jestor was quick to argue against perceived criticism.

"People will dog us for taking on Francis's contract, but it's only for another year. After we signed Monty (Myles) in the offseason, we pretty much took ourselves out of the running for the next free agency. Admittedly we're still going to have some financial things to work out, as both Jon and Omer (Asik) both expiring after this season, but we'll get it sorted."

Left unanswered was how this would affect the rest of the Miami lineup. With Brockman a lock to take over the starting small forward spot, Monty Myles and Daequan Cook are now left to fight it out at shooting guard, with the loser becoming Miami's new 6th man.

"I'm not worried", said Myles about the shift, "Whatever happens, happens. I've just got to do my best and do what I can to help the team win."

***

Context Notes
Yes, the East was a powerhouse conference in the NLL then, much like the West is in the GAH currently, but our struggles still disappointed me. To have laid the essential groundwork for a good team and to have it blow up was more irritating than CK 2's new disabling of creating titles if they're equal to or higher than your liege's title.

I love trading. Love it even more than the draft. Free agency, on the other hand, I hate. The Bobcats tried to get us to make this deal without Brockman, but I refused, especially since it meant they were getting a huge amount of cap room for the upcoming offseason. I was determined to make them pay by forcing them to give up a young player I thought would fit quite well for us.

[Izulde]

Paul #2 In League In Scoring Through 10 Games

Chris Paul is arguably the Heat's best offseason pickup to date

You have to wonder where the Miami Heat would be without Chris Paul.

The superstar point guard, acquired in a blockbuster offseason three way deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic, has been astounding so far this season, ranking second in the league in points scored at 27.7 per game after recent 46 and 34 point outings against the Jazz and the 76ers. In 11 games this season, he's broken the 30 point barrier five times. He's also recently gotten more comfortable with running the offense, posting 6, 8, and 11 assists in his last three games with 3 turnovers total in those three contests, an average of just one turnover a game.

His season averages stand at 27.7 points, 5.4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 49.3% shooting, 46.1% from 3 point range, with a 3.5 A/TO ratio, third on the team behind Earl Watson (7 A/TO) and Monty Myles (6 A/TO).

As a result of Paul's superlative performances, the Heat are hovering near the .500 mark at 5-6 and are a half-game behind the 4-4 Milwaukee Bucks for the East's 8th playoff spot.

"There's little question that without Chris, we're not in this position", head coach Flip Saunders said after Miami's most recent game, a narrow 2-point home win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

"Pau (Gasol)'s struggled a bit with his shot this season, Monty (Myles) is still adjusting to the team and the offense, and it simply takes time for a group of guys that haven't played together really to develop a cohesiveness. Look at Minnesota; they have that All-World lineup and they're 3-5. We'll be fine and we expect to be in the playoff hunt, hopefully in the postseason, by the end of the year."

Other Heat Notes
Two teams have inquired about Pau Gasol, but thus far no trade seems imminent for the Heat's #2 scorer and #1 rebounder. Talks for other players have been ongoing with different teams, but thus far, things appear to be in a holding pattern.

Miami's still seeking its first two-game winning streak of the season and don't appear likely to make it next game against the West-leading 7-2 Portland Trailblazers.

5 Losses In Last 6 Games; Injuries Growing

Jon Brockman has struggled early for the Heat

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Not a 5-10 record and looking worse and worse every game. 5 losses in the last 6 contests, with only a Herculean showing from franchise face Chris Paul preventing it from 6 in a row.

The offense is out of sync. The defense is non-existant. And now niggling injuries to Derrick Byars, Sergio Llull, and Omer Asik have been rearing their pesky heads. Simply put, this is a Miami team in disarray.

Monty Myles, the big free agent splash? Benched. Jon Brockman, the alleged defensive savior? 19.2% shooting on 5 of 26 shots his first two games. Andrei Kirilenko was 6 for 8 against Brockman and while the former Husky held Jermaine O'Neal to just 4 shot attempts, O'Neal also only played 25 minutes due to a foot injury.

Head coach Flip Saunders is in trouble and he knows it. "For whatever reason, it just isn't working", he admitted recently. In the NLL, for whatever reason doesn't cut it. Especially not when you have a GM in Jestor known for hand-picking his guys. And not when Miami was 27-55 last year despite widely considered as having playoff level-talent. It's looking like two straight seasons of underachievement.

So what can be done? Changes, certainly. The Heat are said to be having discussions with several teams about Pau Gasol, Sergio Llull, and, in what may be a surprise, Monty Myles. Houston's said to be interested in Derrick "Double V" Byars as well. We may see a flurry of Day 90 trades as Jestor once again overhauls the roster, keeping Paul as the focus.

And expect Saunders to be gone if this trend continues, possibly as soon as after tonight's game against the Raptors.

Stellar Backcourt Snaps Four Game Losing Streak

A great performance by Steve "Franchise" Francis ended the Heat's futility streak

Flip Saunders's last game as Miami's head coach was the Heat's best game of the season. But it came too little, too late.

The four game losing streak was snapped on Miami's court, the Heat routing the Toronto Raptors 117-96 on Chris Paul's 30 points and 4 steals, Monty Myles's 10 bench points on 4/9 shooting and reserveLeo Lyons's near double-double of 11 points, 9 rebounds as he hit 5 of 9 shots.

And one more player's great game.

35 year old Steve "Franchise" Francis, last seen as a regular starter with the Seattle Supersonics in 2010, was given the start and burst through with 25 points, 11 assists and 5 rebounds. He connected on 9 of his 12 attempts, 3 of 4 from three-point territory, resulting in 55 points total from the Heat backcourt.

"It's a great feeling to have this kind of game", the grinning Francis said afterwards. "People thought I was too old, that I didn't have game any more, and here I just went out and kicked some serious butt."

Miami shot a season high 62.2% and held star Raptors guard Eddie Sessoms to 15 points on 7 of 18 attempts.

Underachievement Causes Flip To Musselman

Flip Saunders didn't last long under the new regime

14 playoff appearances in 17 seasons and a brilliant victory over the Toronto Raptors wasn't enough to save Miami Heat head coach Flip Saunders job, as his firing was announced immediately after the win.

With the Heat having underachieved to just 27 wins last season and struggled to a 5-10 start this year, despite a massive offseason overhaul that included landing superstar Chris Paul, the end was nigh for the 57 year old.

"It's disappointing to have it end like this", Saunders said to reporters. "But the fact of the matter is, I haven't gotten it done the last couple years. I thank the Miami Heat for giving me the opportunity and I'm confident I'll bounce back to find another job in the league next season."


Eric Musselman now takes the reins

Into the vacancy steps 47 year old Eric Musselman, who has 3 years head coaching experience and one playoff appearance, with a 79-85 all-time record.

"I'm thrilled to be coaching here in Miami", said Musselman at the press conference announcing his hiring. "There's a good amount of talent on this team and hopefully we can get this thing turned around soon enough to be in playoff contention this season."

Musselman is known for his ability to develop players, something Saunders was lacking in. Although he doesn't have quite his predecessor's reputation on tactical grounds, Miami has yet to win two games in a row this season under Saunders' leadership.

The Heat start Musselman's Miami coaching career with a four game road trip, his first one on the bench in Chicago against Leandro Barbosa and the high-octane Bulls offense.

The new coach's first order of duty, in addition to getting the season's first win streak going, will be to try and fix a team that ranks 20th in scoring and 28th in points allowed.

***

Context Notes
I hate Flip Saunders as a coach IRL to this day because of how terrible he was for my NLL Heat. Stupid, I know, but there you are. As of this article, we really were Chris Paul and everybody else, a situation CP3 was familiar with in the lowlight of his Minnesota years.

[Young Drachma]

Damn..this is epic.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

Damn..this is epic.

Thanks. We're only in the early part of my first full season, too. Currently we're in my ...fifth or sixth season in the league, I forget which. In any case, it'll be a while yet before I run out of backlogged articles to post.

[Izulde]

Radford Big Man Impresses Heat Scouts

Could Artsiom Parakhouski's name be called when one of Miami's picks come up?

The Miami Heat began scouting this week and came away greatly impressed with Radford's big man Artsiom Parakhouski.

"He's got a really solid set of skills and with our frontcourt situation facing some uncertainty this offseason, he'd be a great prospect to develop", a scout said on condition of anonymity.

Although currently not on the first round mock draft radar, the anonymous scout confirmed the presently undeclared Parakhouski would draw very strong consideration for the Heat's Pistons pick if he enters and were still there at that point in the draft.

"He probably doesn't project as an opening day starter right now", the scout admitted, "But even with his rawness, he'd be a huge upgrade over Leo Lyons and Milovan Rakovic on the bench."

Miami still plans to scout another handful of players before the December 31st deadline and the revelation of Parakhouski makes it even more likely than ever that the Heat will keep the Pistons 2013 1st obtained in the Monty Myles trade.

Season of Woe Continues

Omer Asik's career high 20 rebounds weren't enough in Milwaukee

When a team has three players with double-doubles and another player with 20 points and 5 steals, they expect to win the game. Sadly, that didn't happen for the Miami Heat as the Milwaukee Bucks finally solved the riddle of the fire in winning a grinding 89-87 OT game at the Bradley Center.

Omer Asik had a career high 20 rebounds to go with 10 points, Pau Gasol picked up 19 points and 14 rebounds, and Jon Brockman had his first double-double in a Heat uniform with 13 points and 10 rebounds while holding Joe Johnson to his first under 10 point game as a Buck on 4 of 13 shooting (30.7%). Chris Paul was the man with 20 points and 5 steals.

And yet, it wasn't enough, as the Miami Heat shot 33.3% from the field, and Asik's 4/17 and Monty Myles's 4 for 19 performances dropped them to 39.5 and 29.9% respectively on the season. The news was particularly disheartening for Myles, who'd been been a respectable 13/30 (43.3%) over 5 games off the bench and was 4 of 10 in his first game back as a starter.

"I guess it's back to the bench for me", said Myles after the game. "I'll just have to keep working hard and earn my starting spot back."

It was a continuation of a season of underachievement for Asik and Myles and indeed, for the Miami Heat as a whole.

"I said before the season started that how we did this year depended largely on the development of Monty and Omer", Heat GM Jestor said. "Obviously they've struggled a bit and so have we."

That hasn't stopped inquiries about the young duo from coming. At least one team has inquired about the tall Turk and sources tell us that despite league-wide incredulity, Myles does in fact have a suitor. Gasol has also drawn interest from several teams but so far nothing has materialized for Miami's #2 man and team captain.

Management Said To Be Carefully Considering Proposal

The trade offer just received was, in Miami GM Jestor (pictured L)'s words, "as stunning as a kick to the balls

Some teams have asked about Chris Paul, the Top 5 PER and franchise star who the Miami Heat have declared off-limits and repeatedly insisted him as such, but that was before a suitor came calling with a smorgasbord of players and picks to choose from. Although the Heat are still examining the possible elements involved, particularly the picks, to try and project their probable value, insiders say the offer is drawing serious consideration from the front office.

"It's not as crazy as it sounds", one source said. "The team's 8-15 after we lost those two games to the Raptors and Wizards and at best looks like a late lottery team. Pau Gasol's been the subject of conversations for quite a while and the general feeling is that we're probably headed towards a rebuild sooner rather than later, so why not accelerate the process while we can get maximum value for CP3 and then find a new home for Pau?"

Such a trade would necessitate the Heat filing for a T-Mac Rule exception for Paul, who is currently superstar restricted, but with CP3 gone, the Heat would unquestionably fall to one of the league's worst teams and rebuild in earnest in a year when the draft class is the best is league history, especially if Gasol gets traded as expected.

And then there's the other reason for Paul to go.

"The truth is, only Gasol and Daequan Cook fit the ideal build of a Jestorball team right now and Daequan's really only as a 6th man. Jon Brockman could get there if he can improve his shooting stroke. We even laughed before the season about how Chris doesn't match the Jestorball ideal at point guard because he's a #1 scoring option and franchise face and Jestorball sees the point guard as a facilitator who passes and handles excellently to the point scorers on the team, not be a scorer themselves", a team scout said.

If the Miami Heat do file for the T-Mac exception, expect the league to erupt with trade offers for the legitimate Top 5 player. But, as both individuals we spoke to said, it will be difficult for teams to match the proposal that set off this latest firestorm in South Florida.

***

Context Notes
Okay, I need to explain a bit about how the NLL worked during this timeframe with regards to its star players.

In order to prevent the rash of star players getting passed around like blunts at a smokeout, the league had instituted a Star Player Restriction list, where if a player was traded, they were restricted up to I think a year and a half, maybe two years from being moved again.

Where they fit in that timeline depends on if they were considered a First Tier Star or a Second Tier Star. There may have been a third tier, but I'm not sure.

On the other hand, a Star Restricted player could be moved if the team filed for what was known as a T-Mac exception, whereby if a team traded away all its other top players and demonstrated they were rebuilding, they could obtain a T-Mac exemption for that star.

In this case, I would need to trade Pau Gasol in order to be able to file for a T-Mac exemption and be able to trade CP3.

The Star restriction list doesn't exist anymore, due largely to changes to the league CBA that rendered the list unnecessary, but back then, it was still very much in force.

Oh yeah. I still have the Allen Iverson shoes I'm wearing in that pic.

[Izulde]

Heat Reportedly Quite Close To Trade; Decision Tomorrow

Pau Gasol has been trying to best Miami GM Jestor in the beard-growing category

We've just heard that the Miami Heat are very close to a trade involving star forward Pau Gasol. Sources say that after weeks of not having offers to his liking, GM Jestor has the framework in place for a deal he's happy with if it comes through.

"Nothing's definite," said a staffer. "Both front offices are going to sleep on it and see how they feel in the morning. It's a big move for both teams, so it makes sense everybody's taking the night to think it over a little more."

The source admitted the deal will probably make Miami "appreciably worse this season as the roster's constructed right now", but that the team believes it will make the Heat better in the long run.

No one could say with any certainty how the trade, should both teams agree to it, will affect the Chris Paul situation that recently broke, or any possible application for the T-Mac exception, but numerous teams have contacted Miami about the 27 year old franchise point guard.

"I wouldn't expect to see anything happening with Paul any time soon", said one person. "Day 90 would probably be the very earliest, to open up as full a range of possibilities as able with the rest of the roster. If they do trade him, they could even wait until the trade deadline."

Failure To Check Superstar List Botches Gasol/Okafor Deal

Perhaps new glasses will enable Heat GM Jestor to read

An error by the Miami Heat botched a blockbuster trade today. A deal that would have sent star Pau Gasol to the Boston Celtics for Emeka Okafor, young, accurate forward Dusan Sakota and a 2nd round draft pick turned from submitted to NLL offices to a pipe dream after the New York Knicks filed a notice that Okafor is in fact trade-ineligible until Day 1 of the 2013 season as per NLL Superstar Trade Restriction Rules.

Jestor wasn't answering phone calls, texts, e-mails, or messages about the embarrassing gaffe. A spokesman for the Miami Heat said the GM would be largely unavailable to the media as he's busy overseeing the construction of the team's new offseason digs in Las Vegas.

It's another black mark in a season full of lows for a team that some predicted could be in contention for a low-tier playoff seed.

News of Failed Trade Fires Team Up

Pau Gasol was energized all throughout last night's game against the Denver Nuggets

A day after word leaked of the failed Pau Gasol/Emeka Okafor and pieces trade between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, the Heat put together their best game of the season in a 113-90 win over the Denver Nuggets that wasn't even as close as it appeared.

Gasol, who would have sat the game out had the trade been legal, was a flawless 11 for 11, scoring 25 points with 3 blocks. Much-maligned Monty Myles had one of his more accurate games of the year, going 5/7 including 3/3 from 3 point range for 15 points against Jestor favorite defensive ace Ron Artest, Jon Brockman had his most accurate game in a Heat uniform, hitting 7 of 10 shots for 17 points and 7 rebounds, and Omer Asik double-doubled for 13 points and 10 rebounds. Chris Paul and reserve Steve Francis were also important contributors with 21 and 10 points respectively.

"It's great to have a game like this against one of the best D guys in the league", said a smiling Myles.

Brockman admitted the trade news inspired him.

"When I heard Dusan was included in the deal, I knew that spelled trouble for my starting spot. He's a real accurate kid and I know I wasn't as good as I could be there until tonight."

Indeed, the Heat's young trio of Brockman, Asik and Myles have all struggled early this season with their shooting, but there's also been flashes of improvement recently, particularly Asik, who is 15/26 (57.6%) in his last three games.

"The coaches are working with me and with Jon and Monty on our shooting form", the Turkish big man said. "It will take some time, but we are getting better and better every game."

Brockman and Asik in particular bear watching, as they're both in the final year of their rookie contracts and two of the most important decisions facing Jestor are whether to extend them and if so, for how long and how much.

Next up on the Heat's slate is the Orlando Magic, whom some around the league believe is chasing Paul, should the Miami star become trade-eligible through the T-Mac exemption. It's a matchup that features Jestor's current team against his old team, and the 13-9 Magic, who have played above expectations this season, are heavily favored to win.

"Full credit to Erick for the work he's done there", Jestor said after last night's game. "He took a situation that was still tough after I left it and got it turned around. Hopefully we can pull off the upset, but if not, we'll just keep plugging along and working."

***

Context Notes
I'd completely forgotten about that botched Pau Gasol trade until I reviewed the article. I was most excited about Sakota, who was shooting over 50% and 40% from downtown for the Celtics, and Okafor was a strong defensive and rebounding horse.

It's so strange to re-read about how many of my players struggled with their shooting in that part of the season. That's not characteristic of the teams I run, particularly with an All-World beast like CP3 at PG.

[Izulde]

Current Jestor Team Beats Old Jestor Team In OT Thriller

Omer Asik was key to Miami's win.

Somehow it seems only fitting that the very first win streak for the Miami Heat this season came at the hands of Jestor's old Florida franchise, the Orlando Magic. In an exciting, nail-biting, balls-to-the-wall battle royale, the Heat triumphed 103-101 in overtime.

Chris Paul was Player of the Game as he's been so often in his career, leading all scorers with 36 points. But on a night when Pau Gasol struggled to find his shot against DeAndre Jordan, it was two other players who stepped up for the Heat.

Omer Asik scored a season-high 18 points on 6/13 shooting and recorded his fourth straight double-double with 10 rebounds on top of his scoring. And there was Monty Myles, who continued his recent good play by going 7 for 15 off the bench for 14 points.

"Wins like this are a huge boost to the whole team", said head coach Eric Musselman, who has now gone 4-6 since replacing Flip Saunders on the bench. "We need to take what we've learned and done these last couple games and keep it going."

Two Players In Last Group Of Five Impress

Miami Heat GM Jestor has been using local area IHOPs while on scouting trips

The Miami Heat are planning to get their much-talked, much-needed third option with their first pick in the 2013 NLL draft. That's the word we're hearing out of South Florida after the team scouted its last set of five players in the inaugural scouting period.

"The guys in the front office are confident about landing a defense/rebounding big with the Detroit pick", an anonymous source said, "But the opportunity to grab that elite level scorer who can be the third guy or the second as Pau Gasol declines if Pau sticks around, that's only going to be possible in the lottery."

No names were mentioned, but it's believed the franchise has its eye on further scouting two players in particular for the upper selections and will also investigate other potential prospects for that area and the late first/early second range.

Heat Go 2-0 After Llull Handed Starting Spot

(L to R) Jorge Garbajosa, Pau Gasol and Sergio Llull celebrate Spain's European Basketball Championship.

Maybe it's just the home success the Miami Heat's enjoyed this season. Maybe it's just a small sample size. But after Sergio Llull was given the starting shooting guard spot, the Heat went 2-0, beating the Thunder 94-83 and the Knicks 104-88 to extend their win streak to 3 games for the second time this season and their homecourt win streak to 7 games, their last loss in Miami on December 11th to the Wizards.

Of course, these weren't Lull's first two starts of his NLL career. They were actually his fourth and fifth, but unlike the previous stint of three games, the 16th overall pick looked comfortable, going 12/27 (44.4%) and averaging 15 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and a block over those two contests.

And this despite fellow Spanish national team member Pau Gasol going 6/19 (31.6%) to fail to reach double-digit scoring in consecutive scoring for the first time this season.

"We've got the chemistry from playing together. Pau's playing not as good as he could right now, but he'll be back", Llull said after the New York win.

Could Llull be the unexpected key to the Heat turning it around and challenging for the final seed in the East? Only time will tell, but the early returns are encouraging.

Miami and Cleveland GMs Seen In Sin City With Pop Stars

It all started with a call from Miley Cyrus to Taber

NLL observers were surprised to see GMs Jestor and Taber in Las Vegas, cavorting about with popstars Britney Spears and Miley Cyrus. The foursome were spotted peoplewatching on the Strip, playing in the Gameworks arcade, shopping at Cesar's Palace Forum shops and hanging out at local restaurants.


Taber was shocked he actually got a call from Miley

Celebrity watchers last saw them in a unnamed club, where the two singers performed to an appreciative crowd while the GMs chatted as they watched.


Jestor brought his hat but not his monkey

One patron claimed to have overheard Jestor and Taber discussing a deal involving Pau Gasol.

"I wasn't close enough to hear exactly what they were saying, but I definitely heard Pau's name", the informant said.


Britney Spears decided to hat it up like Jestor

Could this be the start of a beautiful relationship? And for the NLL, by that we mean Gasol in Cleveland?

We'll just have to wait and see.

***

Context Notes
Those first couple weeks in Las Vegas were a real asspain in terms of getting Internet. The house I rented with three other incoming MFAs didn't have Internet access and required some major changes to the yard infrastructure to get it going, so I ended up eating shitty, overpriced IHOP once a day just to have Internet. Because going by bus or walking to the university were time-consuming as hell, given I lived way over in East Las Vegas back then.

As you can probably deduce, we didn't turn into worldbeaters or anything after hiring Musselman, but we were playing a lot better. Anecdotally, I find that changing head coaches in DDS often (but not always) results in a team improving, so I attributed our elevated form to that.

Oh, and the last article was part me being silly, part Taber and I actually having talked about Gasol to Cleveland as one of those What the hell, why not play around and see if there's anything here kind of things.

[Izulde]

Playoffs Still Within Reach For Heat; 3 Games Back of 8 Seed

If the Heat do make the postseason, Chris Paul deserves MVP consideration

15-19 is a bit short of what the Miami Heat were hoping to have by the start of the New Year, but there's positive signs and hints that, barring catastrophe, the team could still make the playoffs. Here's a look at how the concluding months of 2012 went for Jestor's squad and an assessment of how likely the Heat will be to playing after the regular season.

The Coach

How long will Eric Musselman last with a GM known for his itchy trigger finger?

Since Eric Musselman was hired to replace Flip Saunders as head coach, the Miami Heat have gone 9-9. A .500 record may not sound impressive or playoff worthy, but the Heat's also won 4 of its last 5 games and if they could solve the 3-13 road jinx while still maintaining their stellar 12-6 home form, suddenly Miami again becomes a team worth talking about in the playoff conversation.

The Franchise Face

Trade rumors have yet again plagued Chris Paul, one of the most oft-traded superstars in the league

24.9 points. 6.1 assists. 1.6 steals. #2 in the league in the scoring. A 3.9 assist/TO ratio, which is #3 in the entire league of starters, except for Deron Williams (5.8) and rookie Ricky Rubio (4.8).

A Top 5 player by PER and perception. Shooting 46.5%, 41.6% from 3 point range, 90.8% from the charity stripe.

And yet, despite all those glittering statistics, the spectre of trade yet again stalked Chris Paul as rumors have swirled, whispering that Pau Gasol and Paul are on their way out in a rebuild.

But hold on, say others.

"Paul's not going anywhere", says Jackson Ayorinde, a UNLV and NBA beat reporter for the Las Vegas Sun. "Look at who Pau was going to be traded for. Emeka Okafor, who's 30 himself. That deal, if it was legal and had gone through, doesn't say rebuild. It says re-tooling."

"You also have to consider Jestor's personality. He doesn't like to let go of his successes and getting Paul was the one brilliant move he's made so far. I think he'd also like to be the guy who gives Chris a permanent home. The longest he's stayed anywhere is 2 and a 1/2 seasons, with the Jazz and then with the Timberwolves. He's 27 years old right now and could easily finish with a 7,8 year career in Miami. That's an important element. Plus, he's the guy who gave the Heat an actual identity rather than the confusion they had last year."

And of the fact that Paul doesn't fit the traditional Jestorball philosophy?

"So what? Jestor's not a strategist. I think he's more adaptable than most believe."

The Ultimate Swingman

Whether at the 2 or the 3, Daequan Cook has been one of the team's best shooters this season

It's hard to imagine, but there's actually been a few games this season where Daequan Cook has come off the bench and there's still chatter that in an ideal Heat setup he'd be the team's 6th man, rather than a starter.

"Probably not far from the truth", Ayorinde suggests. "The front office absolutely loves him, but this is the first time in his career except maybe back in San Antonio in 2010 where he's been asked to be a full-time starter. He's doing well, but getting moved to the 6th man spot would really signify a much stronger team."

What Ayorinde claims to know is that Cook isn't going anywhere.

"From what I've heard, teams are either really high on him or just think he's okay. The Heat really like him and his affordable contract and there just hasn't been any talk about him from what I know."

The Second Star

Will Pau Gasol finish out the season in South Florida?

Look at Pau Gasol's 15.9 points , the lowest of his career, and you might be convinced that he's on the downslide. But he's shooting 50.9% and still pulling down 8.9 rebounds and 1.8 blocks a game. Much of Pau's decreased scoring production can be attributed to CP3's arrival and to the fact that the Heat are running their slowest pace offense in years, in a league that features a lot of run and gun teams.

As to whether or not he'll go? Not even Ayorinde has any idea.

"It's tough to say. Miami was slow-playing it and waiting for the right deal even before the Emeka thing, and people tell me they're still doing that, so I think if he does go, it'll be Day 90 at the earliest, with the trade deadline a more likely option."

The Resurgent Old Man

Steve Francis credits an alternative medicine regimen for his revived play

Who knew the most valuable piece of the Jon Brockman trade would turn out to be Steve Francis? But that's exactly what's happened, as the 35 year old has 12+ points in the last 6 straight games and 10+ in 8 of the last 10, including two 18 point outings.

"He's just really found his rhythm in that 6th man spot and if they do make the playoffs, Franchise will be an important part of it".

The Mistake
This isn't what Monty Myles or the Miami Heat envisioned. A 32% shooting mark, 14% from 3 point range, both career lows and banishment to the bench as a 15 MPG player. Hardly the return expected for a 6 year deal that starts off at $10.3 million a year.

Yet, despite the abysmal performance there's still some around the league who believe Myles can be a good player. In fact, serious talks were underway that would have sent Myles and Sergio Llull in a package to a team that very much covets Llull and likes Myles as well. Those talks have since died due to the team's going in another direction.

"That had to be frustrating for the front office", Ayorinde said. "It would have meant a worse record this year and they would still have obligations next season, but that would have taken the monkey off Miami's back and restored their future financial flexibility."

Current speculation says the Heat are willing to package the Spurs 2014 1st round pick with Myles if the ever-nebulous good player comes back. Ayorinde doubts the prospect of that happening, however.

"I don't see Jestor paying just to dump that contract when he's packaging the first with it. He'll want something decent back and if worst comes to worst, he'll just sit in his office and stare at the Myles contract and be reminded of why his modus operandi has traditionally been to avoid free agency and build through the draft and trades."

Other Possible Moves
The latest trade rumors and possibilities according to Ayorinde:

-Llull has drawn a lot of interest, but if he continues playing well, he might be harder to move.

-Talks have gone all but dead on Gasol.

-The Houston Rockets were interested in Derrick Byars, but with Gary Chan's resignation, that interest seems gone.

-A team has asked about Omer Asik, but no deal seems imminent.

-Lots of inquiries about Paul, but the sort of rebuild that would entail seems more and more remote, especially with the Pistons holding the Heat's 2014 pick.

-Anthony Morrow has all but disappeared, both in terms of trade chatter, where he was a hot property in the offseason, and in the Heat's court plans, pushed further and further down the chart as a result of the guard glut. And he's not happy about it.

-Brian Scalabrine's expiring contract is attractive to some teams, but the Heat intend to put him in a larger package.

-Indications are Jon Brockman will be dealt at some point later this season if there's a market for him. On the other hand, he's found his shooting stroke a bit after being newly benched.

By the Numbers
Scoring - 21st - 92.8
Assists - T-14th - 15.1
Rebounds - T-23rd - 40.4
Blocks - T-27th - 4.6
Steals - 20th - 6.7
Shooting - 26th - 43%
3 Point - 17th - 34.6%
FT % - 30th - 69.4%
Turnovers - #1! - 12.1 - 1.1 TO/game fewer than Bulls and Cavs

Defense - 25th - 99
Assists Allowed - 26th - 26.9
Rebounds Allowed - 30th - 46.2
Blocks Allowed - T-16th - 6.7
Steals allowed - #2 - 5.7 (0.3 behind Cavs, 0.3 ahead of Clippers)
FG % Allowed -T- 25th - 47.6%
3 Point % Allowed - 30th - 40.4%
Turnovers Forced - T-18th - 14.4

Analysis
Allowing the fewest turnovers a game, a key component of Jestorball, is what's keeping the Heat playing well above the rest of their numbers. As often has been said, defense, rebounding, a 3rd scoring option, must all improve. Better free throw shooters would also help.

Still, these numbers are for the most part improved from earlier in the season and suggest that if that improvement continues, the Heat might will be in the mix at season's end.

***

Context Notes
You can tell by the rankings how badly we sucked my first full season despite my roster remodel that brought in better and better-fitting talent. But the important thing was, we were #1 in fewest turnovers allowed, which has always been the central philosophy of Jestorball when it became an actual system.

I do remember Stevie Franchise all of a sudden finding the fountain of youth. It's become a consistent theme of my MP league outings to find the veteran bench guard and resurrect him for a season or two. Oddly enough, I don't have the same luck with veteran big men or even swingmen. Just the guards. It's weird like that.

Oh, one more thing - this article is noteworthy for its first introduction of Jackson Ayorinde to the NLL. He's the reporter/scholar alter ego in that league, who you'll see pop up again. He's also very analytical and tends to be focused on the league as a whole, as opposed to Smoky Joe, the GAH alter ego who is far more colloquial, very much biased in favor of the Knicks, and rambles on sometimes about his personal life.

[Izulde]

Broken Hand Comes In 94-82 Loss To Blazers

Pau Gasol's broken hand arrives at perhaps the worst possible time for Miami

Optimism, ever so cautiously, was starting to dawn in South Florida. Eric Musselman and Jestor's Heat were on the verge of challenging for a playoff spot, riding high on a 4 of 5 win streak.

That all came crashing down on this appropriately cold, snowy night in Portland, Oregon. Not only did the win streak end in a 94-82 loss, but the Heat suffered a devastating injury, losing one of its two stars for over two months.

Pau Gasol broke his hand when he fell after forcing in a tough shot on Pavel Podkolzin. In fact, the damage is so severe, he'll be out for 64 days.

"It was one of the worst hand breaks I've ever seen", said a glum Musselman, "The only thing we can do now is just keep going forward."

But forward is exactly what Miami lacks, the frontcourt depth alarmingly shallow after starters Gasol and Omer Asik. Leo Lyons and late 2nd round rookie Milovan Rakovic are hardly anybody's idea of even borderline starters.

Jestor was despondent at the post-game press conference.

"We'll go through the rest of our road trip, the next four games I mean, and then we'll see what happens. Honestly, I don't have to tell you that this is a devastating event and it completely changes our thinking as we head into Day 90, the trade deadline, and in our draft scouting."

An unnamed source also added that, in a further ironic twist, another team has contacted the Heat about Asik, dangling one of Jestor's favorite players from prior days in return.

Whether or not the deal will be consummated remains to be seen, but for now at least, it appears Miami's road woes are well and full in effect, the season officially lost in terms of the team's playoff hopes.

Back To Back Wins Surprise League

Monty Myles during his last year at Tennessee

When Pau Gasol went down with a broken hand, everyone, from the news media, to the bloggers, to the casual fan thought the Miami Heat's season was done.

Somebody forgot to tell the Heat that.

In a season marked by road futility and uneven play, Miami surged to back to back away wins, beating the Phoenix Suns 87-76 and the Golden State Warriors 97-95 on consecutive nights in Arizona and California.

Chris Paul was his magnificent self in both games, as expected. In Phoenix, he racked up 21 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds and 3 steals, aided in the victory by Jon Brockman's double-double of 11 points and 12 rebounds, Steve "Franchise" Francis's 18 bench points and, in what some are calling a surprising move, Omer Asik's 10 points and 8 rebounds off the bench.


Leo Lyons has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season

It was unusual to see Asik benched and even more startling to see Leo Lyons occupy the starting center spot in both games. Lyons, taken with the 2nd to last pick in the 2nd round, 58th overall, last season by the Minnesota Timberwolves, was cut by Minnesota, then signed by the D-League D-Fenders, where he struggled for most of his first year of professional basketball.

Then this offseason, Miami Heat GM Jestor, looking to shore up a dreadful big man bench, was impressed by Lyons' passing and handling skills, signing him to a one year minimum contract. Although he was considered obscure even to most NLL insiders, Lyons has quietly improved as the season as worn on with the new opportunity and minutes in Miami.

He was 5/10 for 10 points and 8 rebounds against the Suns and held the much more heralded Hamed Haddadi to 6 points on 3/7 shooting.

Miami head coach Eric Musselman further clarified the switch in starting centers after the first game.

"We've been really impressed with the work ethic and dedication Leo's shown all season long, and we realized as we were completing our early season evaluations that he has even more upside than we originally thought. And with Omer struggling this season, we decided to give Leo a chance."

Although Lyons only played 17 minutes against Golden State because of foul trouble, he kept the 50% shooting streak as a starter going, hitting 2/4 shots for 5 points, 6 rebounds and a block.

Of course, it was Paul who won the game for Miami in Oakland, putting up a brilliant 30 points, 11 assists and 6 steals, his main help coming from Brockman and Francis again. Brockman recorded his second straight double-double at the PF spot, netting 10 points and 10 rebounds, while Francis continued his sterling 6th man play since coming to Miami with 12 bench points, raising his season average to the double-digit mark of 10.2 points a game.

But there may have been no bigger shock in these two games than Monty Myles.

The $10 million man, widely criticized for his horrible play this year, stepped into the starting small forward spot and went 4 for 8 for 8 points against Phoenix and 8 of 14 for 16 points versus the Warriors. All told, that's 12/22, or 54.5%, 20% better than his season average of 34%.

"People tell me I don't deserve the money I got and yeah I've struggled this year, but we're a team and I'm just going to work hard and do my part to get better and play better", Myles said in Oakland.

Myles also showed excellent defensive skills in the two games, holding James Johnson to 6 of 21 (28.6%) shooting and Vince Carter to 5 of 16 (31.3%).

Maybe, just maybe, Monty Myles and this Miami bunch may not be so bad without Pau Gasol after all.

Heat Now 4-1 Without Gasol

Jon Brockman's emergence at PF has been a key part of the Heat's surprising run

"somehow we lose to the heat."

"eww. gross."

No, those aren't the latest Internet memes. They're reactions by fans of teams around the league who have lost to the suddenly hot Miami Heat. Four straight wins, including most recently knocking off the Southeast leading Atlanta Hawks 95-85, and a charge up to 19-21 have both .500 and a playoff spot both within range, accomplishments deemed unthinkable after Pau Gasol broke his finger and was ruled out for two months.

Chris Paul has been his usual CP3 self, of course. But no less important is Jon Brockman, who, after being given another starting chance, this time at power forward, has responded with four straight double doubles in points and rebounds - 11 and 12 against the Suns, 10 and 10 against the Warriors, 18 and 11 against the Clippers, and 11 and 11 against the Hawks. More importantly, he's shot 50% or better the last two games and looks much more comfortable firing in the post.

One West Conference scout says Brockman's rise changes the whole situation surrounding him.

"Miami loved Brockman's rebounding, loved his defense, loved his passing and handling skills. But he didn't show any ability at all to shoot at small forward. The Heat could have gone with a lineup of Leo (Lyons) at the 4 and Omer (Asik) at the 5 after Pau went down, but they decided to give Jon another try and it's paid off beautifully.

That's also going to work out when the offseason comes, because talk around the league is that Jon's a loyal guy, with winning next, playing time third, and money a pretty distant fourth. If Miami can keep making the playoff push this year, with their draft picks in the upcoming draft, they'll be able to put a strong case that they'll be a legit postseason team next year rather than a borderline one like this season.

They've also given him career highs in minutes per game and should break the starts in a season by the time the year's over, so the front office is playing it well to keep him. On the other hand, if I'm that Miami organization, I'm scared of certain teams either price-driving or paying ridiculous sums to try and get him since he's not extension-eligible."

Why Monty Myles Is Better Than He Looks

Poor shooting may draw criticism, but Monty Myles is kingly in other ways besides money

People still laugh about Monty Myles's large contract, but there's at least one NLL statistical analyst who believes Myles may be playing better than appears at first glance.

"Yes, he's shooting fairly often and poorly", says Bernard Pope, an analyst with the World Basketball Numbers Institute (WBNI).

"But you also have to look at what he's done to opponents since getting his starting job back. Let me use Miami's last four wins as an example.

87-76 win - @ Phoenix
Monty Myles - 4/8 - 50%
James Johnson - 6/21 - 28.6% - Season Average - 43.4% - Shooting % Differential: -14.8 - 14 points - Season Average - 15.1 points - Point Differential: -1.1

97-95 win - @ Golden State
Monty Myles - 8/14 - 57.1%
Vince Carter - 5/16 - 31.3% - - Season Average - 45.6% - Shooting % Differential: -14.3 - 12 points - Season Average - 17.3 points - Point Differential: -5.3

98-82 win - @ L.A. Clippers
Monty Myles - 3/16 - 18.8%
Nicolas Batum - 4/6 - 66.7% - Season Average - 41.6% Shooting % Differential: +25.1 - 9 points - Season Average: 15 points - Point Differential: -6

95-85 win - vs. Atlanta
Monty Myles - 4/13 - 30.8%
Predrag Stojakovic - 5/17 - 29.4% - Season Average - 46.2% Shooting % Differential: -16.8 - 14 points - Season Average - 21.7 points - Point Differential: -7.7

Combined Monty Myles Shooting: 19/51 - 37.3%
Combined Opponent Shooting - 20/60 - 33.3%

"Even in this small sample size of four games, a consistent pattern has emerged of Myles taking fewer shoots at more accurate percentages than his opponents with the exception of Batum. More importantly, he's held every opponent below their season averages, with a mean of -5.2 % shooting and -5 points. And that's with the Batum shooting percentage outlier.

Essentially, Myles is a fantastic defensive weapon who, if he can improve his shooting similar to what Brockman appears to be doing, Miami can be a very deadly team."

Financial Decisions

Although he played a key role in the win over Atlanta, Omer Asik's future in Miami seems doubtful

The Miami Heat are in the unenviable position of having three former second round picks who play key roles all hitting free agency in a year when many teams are flushed with cash - Brockman, Omer Asik, and Leo Lyons. The other expiring contract is Brian Scalabrine, who, if he isn't traded, will be renounced and likely not return.

An unnamed East Conference official sees the scenario playing out like this:

"They'll do their damnedest to keep Brockman. He's showing signs of coming around now with his shooting and they already liked him. I think we'll see a Brockman/Gasol frontcourt once Pau comes back and Miami will fight to keep him.

I think they'll also put in the effort to keep Lyons around. He'll probably be given a two or three year deal worth more than the minimum and they'll hit on the fact that they gave him the chance no one else was willing to.

Asik, on the other hand, may not even make it the entire season. There's a growing number of teams asking about him and the fact that they started Brockman and Lyons over him after Pau went down says a lot. On the other hand, he did just play well against Atlanta (Ed. Note - 14 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks on 50% shooting against Atlanta, and he'll start again while Lyons nurses a finger injury, so who knows?"

***

Context Notes
Yeah, 4-1 out of the gates after Pau broke his hand like a boss, which isn't how you want to injure yourself. I couldn't believe it, to be quite frank. I'd forgotten that I started Leo Lyons at center, which is even more surprising considering he's 6'9, 225 lbs and I don't even like starting PFs that small.

The whole thing was weird because Brockman is 6'7, 260 lbs, so I had a 6'7 and 6'9 starting frontcourt, which is madness if you know anything about Jestorball. I will say though, in Brockman's defense, that 260 is a good weight for PFs in the system I run.

You're probably noticing a trend here - My valuation of players is in constant flux. I tend to evaluate players on the basis of 70% stats/30% ratings. Or maybe it's more like 60/40. In any case, I value stats more than ratings, though of course ratings have to be part of the equation.

Oh, and as you can see, I settled on Bernard King as the representative player for the fictional Monty Myles. Regardless of all the shit I took for his contract, dude played seriously good defense - 96.1% drive stop rate and 0.9 PA/SF at the time of this article.

My GM persona also tends to be one with a chip on his shoulder, hence why I include things like the comments from the sim results in this article. I *hate* to lose, especially since I'm something of an obnoxious, hardass, opinionated dick when it comes to discussing teams in sim leagues. Trades especially.

Matter of fact, I think my scalding critique of some trades and admittedly arrogant know-it-all attitude in the lone DDSPB 3 league I'm in has made half the league hate me. But fuck what you heard, cuz I've got a Suns team that has Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat, and a bunch of damned role players (well, Klay Thompson has franchise potential but it's his rookie year so he's raw as a ho), just a half-game behind the Clippers.

The same Clippers who stupidly traded Chris Paul for Paul George as the centerpiece of the return package. I eviscerated them for it in the Trade Discussion thread (and had a three day argument over another stupid trade - Minnesota sending Ricky Rubio to the Thunder for Russell Westbrook - dumbass Timberwolves). Clippers pop back with talking trash saying "What's this Jestorball stuff? I'm not seeing it yet" And I'm like, "...Dude, have you *seen* my roster? We have no talent outside of Nash and Gortat. Y'all should be running away with the weak ass Pacific, not having us a half game behind you."

To be fair, the Clippers are also missing Deandre Jordan, who broke his leg. But still, we kicked their butts in Phoenix and we play each other in Los Angeles next sim.

Anyway, sorry about the long tangent about the DDS 3 league. I've just been supremely annoyed there, especially since nobody comments on articles, which makes me much less interested. About the only thing that's keeping me going is I've got a rebuild starting after this season which should be fun, and then if/when I pull out a title, I can be all like, What now, haters?

[Izulde]

Paul; Francis Highlight Surging Miami

Superstar Chris Paul reminded everyone of why he's an MVP favorite in Miami's most recent games

Not even the most die-hard Heat fan could have predicted this. Miami has now gone 7-1 since Pau Gasol brutally broke his finger and are 3-0 since Leo Lyons sprained his own finger, carrying their stretch of wins to 7 and the first above .500 record in a long time at 22-21. Breaking last season's win total of 27 now seems all but assured and they're a mere half-game back of the 7th and 8th seeds, currently tied between the Boston Celtics and the Washington Wizards.

The main success is, of course, Chris Paul. Ranked #4 in the recently released initial MVP rankings, he put up 29 points against Indiana in a gritty 89-82 win, 42 points and 8 assists in Philadelphia to lead a 112-95 triumph over the 76ers, and 32 points in the 114-104 home win over New Orleans. His 25 points a game ranks second in the entire NLL, 3 behind current MVP favorite Dwayne Wade.

He was helped versus Indiana by Steve Francis's 11 points, 6 assists, and 3 steals off the bench and by Jon Brockman's single best game of the season, a 19 point, 17 rebound double-double that extended Brockman's double-double streak to 5 games before it ended against the 76ers.

Monty Myles was the one with the season high in the City of Brotherly Love, scoring 19 points on 8 of 17 shooting while limiting James Posey to 6 points, the lowest scoring output yet by Posey as a starter this year. And of course there was Francis again, with 13 bench points.

Francis also had 12 points and 8 rebounds off the bench against the Hornets, but the real buzz-worthy performances were by fellow second teamer Anthony Morrow, who went 5/5 for 10 points in 10 minutes in a display of perfect symmetry, and Omer Asik, who showed flashes of being the type of player Miami hoped for when they traded him, producing 16 points, 12 rebounds and 6 blocks on 7/11 shooting.

"Everybody's just buying into Coach Musselman's system right now", Paul said. "After Pau went down, while everybody outside was panicking, Coach was saying 'Let's go out and prove them all wrong' and we've been doing that. It's great, because once Pau does come back and even when Leo and Sergio come back, we'll be a lot stronger team and be able to keep this thing going."

Indeed, there may be no better sign of GM Jestor's wisdom in firing Flip Saunders and replacing him with Eric Musselman than the team's most recent run, despite the injuries that have plagued the Heat. Musselman's record with the team now stands at 16-11 and should Miami make the playoffs, not only will Paul deserve MVP consideration and votes, but Musselman should be a favorite for Coach of the Year.

"I'm not concerned about awards," Musselman said.

"My only objective is to get us into the playoffs. If we do that, then all that other stuff will take care of itself."

Myles' Marvelous Night Marred By Asik Injury

A season-best performance by Monty Myles carried the Heat over the Hawks

The scrappy Miami Heat keep finding ways to get it done and after posting their 9th straight win in Atlanta over the Southeast-leading Hawks, have pulled up into the 8th and final playoff spot. But the victory was a phyrric one, sidelining yet another member of the frontcourt.

Win #8 in the streak came in Toronto, an 82-68 defense fest decided by Chris Paul's 25 points, Steve Francis's 13 bench points and Omer Asik's monster outing on the boards, the tall Turk racking up 19 rebounds to go with his 10 points. But the real factor was 3 point shooting, as the Heat were 8/19 (42.1%), including Francis's 3 of 4 from long range, to the Raptors' 2/14 (14.3%) downtown misfiring.

In Atlanta, Paul just missed a triple-double, netting 34 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds. Francis's streak of 10+ bench point games ended, although he did dish out 7 assists. He was supplanted on offense by Anthony Morrow, who led the second team with 12 points in 12 minutes on 5 of 6 shooting. But the real hero of the game was Monty Myles, who had his best game of the year, a dazzling 32 points and 4 steals on 15/23 shooting.

And then there was Omer Asik, who despite an 0 for 7 night caused by a sprained wrist, battled his way to 16 rebounds and 6 blocks as a dominant post presence. Unfortunately, the wrist sprain puts Asik out of commission for 11 days, joining already wounded frontcourt men Pau Gasol and Leo Lyons on the injury list.

In fact, Miami now has just two fully healthy players on the roster capable of playing center, Brian Scalabrine and 2nd round rookie Milovan Rakovic. Still, a team insider speaking on condition of anonymity reports that GM Jestor would prefer not to spend much of Miami's minimal cap room on a free agent and intends to use the space for trade flexibility instead.

"It's tough when you have a streak of injuries like this," said head coach Eric Musselman. "I don't know if the front office is going to sign someone, trade for someone, or just ride with what we have until Leo gets back, but we'll do the best we can with the hand we're dealt."

At least one player isn't overly concerned with the perilous big man situation.

"So what if we lose two or three games?" Monty Myles said. "We'll still be in position to get a playoff spot once Leo, Sergio, and Pau get back and me, CP, Daequan, and Jon will pick up the slack and try to keep this thing going until they're back."

Other News
Day 90 is almost here and thus far, it appears no one's leaving South Beach. The front office is, however, said to be mulling "an intriguing offer" for Gasol and there's still considerable interest in Llull, Asik, and Derrick Byars.

Some sources say the Heat won't trade Asik without getting a big man back for either him, Llull, or Byars, given the alarming lack of bodies in the frontcourt. Others believe a team will step in with an attractive offer for Llull, whose constantly fluctuating status with the Heat appears to again be uncertain.

"I don't know how likely they are to do something," one NLL watcher said. "Basically, Miami's looking to improve their bench big situation, maybe get a star or appropriate level pick or picks for Gasol, and find a younger guy to be Francis's heir apparent as the 6th man. The problem is bigs, picks, and youth are the three hottest commodities in the league, so who knows if something can get worked out or not. Plus, with the team playing like it is, the front office is likely to err on the side of conservatism if there's a split over whether or not to make a specific trade."

Cook The Latest Casualty

Last night it was Jon Brockman's turn to have a career-defining game

Although there was much to enjoy about Miami's 111-71 domination of the Houston Rockets to extend the Heat's win streak to 10 games, the injury spectre continued to haunt the home team.

Jon Brockman put up a career best 32 points on 13/22 shooting and had 11 rebounds besides. Chris Paul again just missed the triple-double with 24 points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists, Steve Francis scored 10 bench points, Milovan Rakovic had 10 bench rebounds and Monty Myles connected on 7 of 11 attempts for 19 points while holding Brent Petway to a dreadful 5 of 14 night.

But just as the win against the Hawks cost Miami Omer Asik for a week and a half, so too did this win mean another injury. This time, starting SG Daequan Cook strained his abdomen and will be out 10 days. With Sergio Llull not due back until after the Mavericks game next, it'll be interesting to see what lineup the Heat fields for that contest.

MVP Candidate Could Miss Two Games

Arm soreness could give Chris Paul a couple nights off

Despite just having 8 men suited up to play, the Miami Heat pulled out their 11th straight victory, a 104-89 road win in Dallas. But just as every win has come with the Faustian price of an injury, so too, did this game.

Chris Paul, who has so far taken 967 shots in 47 games and is on pace to break his season record of 1700 attempts set in 2010 over 77 games with the Timberwolves, led the way with 30 points on 12/23 shooting, including 6/10 from long range.

However, he complained after the game of arm soreness. Team doctors say he'll need four days to fully rest it, which means he could miss games against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls.

"I want to play", Paul said. "I hate sitting on the bench in street clothes, but Coach Musselman's telling me I should think about maybe just resting up and not risking hurting it worse, make sure I'm 100% for the rest of the year and all that."

Other contributors to the Heat's win were Jon Brockman, who had 20 points on 6 of 14 shooting, Derrick Byars with 12 bench points, and Steve Francis, who sparkled in the starting SG spot with 19 points, 9 assists, and an amazing 6 steals.

The good news is, big man Leo Lyons and guard Sergio Llull are back to full health, meaning Miami can stretch the rotation out to 9 players, even if they sit Paul as seems likely.

Heat GM Not Confident Of Team's Chances

Anthony Morrow's shooting clinic wasn't enough against the Knicks.

Miami's hot streak has cooled off due to Chris Paul's sudden penchant for nagging injuries and he'll miss a key divisional matchup coming up against the Charlotte Bobcats.

The Heat played their worst game in a exactly month, falling to the Knicks 119-90 in New York, echoing the 96-70 thrashing in Oklahoma City on January 7th that preceded Miami's 11 game winning streak that vaulted the Heat back into the playoff picture.

Franchise star Chris Paul was limited to just 10 minutes of on-court time and racked up 5 fouls before spraining his toe and getting pulled from the game.

Although Anthony Morrow did his best to make up the difference with a season-high 24 points, one off his career high, on 9/17, 4/7 from long-range shooting, it wasn't enough. Neither was Brian Scalabrine's surprise 12 bench points, Omer Asik's 10 bench rebounds or Jon Brockman's double-double of 15 points and 11 rebounds, his first in 5 games.

Steve Francis struggled against Kobe Bryant, going 3/12 and the Heat played the most uncharacteristic Jestorball game imaginable, with an astonishing 23 turnovers.

GM Jestor spoke to reporters after the rout.

"We considered the Knicks one of the favorites to challenge the Pistons in the East after they acquired Kobe Bryant and Elton Brand in a steal of a deal and they're showing that with the way they've played lately.

CP3's recent health issues, especially on top of the injury to Pau Gasol, are frustrating and I frankly don't rate our chances against the Bobcats in Charlotte next game, but we'll keep fighting."

A Miami loss and a Wizards win would put Washington a half-game ahead of the Heat for the East's #8 seed.

***

Context Notes
That 11 game win streak during the flurry of injuries was the craziest thing I've ever happen to me in any text-sim experience. mgtr81 did a great job of putting it in context, though - the only +.500 teams we faced during their stretch were Atlanta (twice) and Clippers.

That being said, I'd completely forgotten how much Brockman broke out during this run, and that Franchise kept his torrid streak off the bench going for that long. And of course Monty was stepping up, too.

As you can see in the last article, it was a tight, tight battle for the 7/8 seeds in the East right about this time. You had the Bucks, Heat, Magic, Wizards and maybe one or two other teams I'm forgetting that were in the mix.

I had a lot of fun during that 11 games. The winning just coming and coming despite Pau Gasol's injury and all the other dinging injuries we kept getting hit with it. Felt like we were playing with house money, so I just enjoyed the run while it lasted.

[Izulde]

Expirings Swap Could Signal More Moves

Ricky Davis contemplates his move from West to East coast and conference

The Miami agreed to a trade today, sending versatile veteran Brian Scalabrine to the Los Angeles Clippers for former UNLV star Marcus Banks and unhappy veteran Ricky Davis.

Davis, 33, has been frustrated by his lack of playing time with the Red and White, relegated to a third tier bench role and averaging just short of 10 minutes a game. He should see much greater opportunity with the Heat serving as Daequan Cook's backup at the SG spot and possibly seeing some minutes at the 3 as well.


Marcus Banks during his UNLV days

The 31 year old Banks has likewise seen almost no time this season in a Clippers uniform. Thus far, he's appeared in only 22 games, averaging 5.3 minutes per contest. He'll likely be the Heat's third point guard behind Chris Paul and Steve Francis. Sources say the mutual UNLV affinity shared by Banks and Miami Heat GM Jestor is what instigated the trade.


Even increased playing time and solid performance couldn't keep Brian Scalabrine in South Florida

Perhaps no player on the Heat has had a more interesting year than Scalabrine. Originally a non-factor in Miami's scheme, he gained the starting spot at center after injuries to Pau Gasol, Leo Lyons and Omer Asik and performed so well, he passed Milovan Rakovic as the team's third big man without Gasol.

Now the versatile redhead, who is capable of playing every spot but point guard, moves to the Clippers, where he projects to fill a jack-of-all-trades role on the bench.

The Clippers will also be helped in their chemistry by moving the discontented Davis and bringing in the much more team oriented Scalabrine.

Some observers, including one anonymous NLL analyst, believe the trade indicates more trades are coming for the Heat.

"I've heard a lot of talk about Sergio Llull going somewhere and of course everybody knows the Rockets have been hot for Derrick Byars for a long time now. This is Jestor (Miami's GM) preparing for that possibility and having the guys in place beforehand. You might also see Anthony Morrow go, as he's not going to be happy about Davis coming in and taking his minutes.

The nice thing I like about the deal is they didn't give up a pick and they didn't add on more salary for next season. On the other hand, they significantly reduced their financial flexibility for further deals this season and they can't afford the same rash of big men injuries they had earlier, or they'll really be in trouble.

Conversely, they're now in a much better position to react to any further injuries to Chris Paul, because Banks is precisely the sort of surehanded backup point guard you want to have in that situation, or in case Francis gets hurt."

Cold Shooting; CP3 Absences Cause 3 Game Skid

Daequan Cook has struggled since missing 5 games with injury

The team that was one of the NLL's hottest is now one of the coldest. The Miami Heat have followed an 11 game win streak with a 1-5 mark that has taken them from the 7th seed down to out of the playoffs.

Some of those defeats can be excused, coming as they did without the services of Chris Paul (Cavaliers, Bulls, Bobcats), but as the 106-85 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs, a team they should have been able to beat or at the very least play close, shows, the Heat are clearly not the same team that won 11 straight.

"We're just not connecting right now," said a clearly frustrated Paul. "We're not playing defense and we're not shooting well."

Chief among the culprits in Miami's recent swoon are the Heat's centers and Steve Francis, who'd been reviving his career with Miami. To wit, over the last 6 games:

Steve Francis: 31/82 - 37.8%
Leo Lyons: 10/29 = 34.5%
Omer Asik: 5/21 = 23.8%

And let's not forget Daequan Cook's going 2 for 12 in the two games since he's been back from injury. That means over the last six games, those combined four players are 48/144, a 33.3% rate.

Defensively they've given up an average of 101.2 points a game and scored just 88.8 points, a differential of -12.4.

The one bright spot? Jon Brockman, 31/69 over the last six, a 44.9% rate that has him up to 38.8% for the season. While still not the ideal percentage for a big man, the conversion rate is higher than the 41.6% he shot in 47 games and 21 starts with the Utah Jazz last season and seems to signify that the young forward has matured as a shooter with experience and with the teachings of head coach Eric Musselman.

Transaction Rumors
Several teams have inquired about Pau Gasol, but so far no suitor has been able to come up with anything the Heat feels worth pulling the trigger on. With a little less than a month to go until he returns from injury and the team still in postseason contention, it's looking more and more likely that Miami will keep Gasol for a playoff push and then explore their options again in the offseason.

Sergio Llull is likewise drawing a lot of interest and seems much more likely to go than Gasol, but so far teams appear to be offering guards and swingmen, which the Heat don't need.

There's still some interest in Omer Asik, but even with his uneven play, Miami is still hesitant to deal him without a post player coming in via this or another trade, especially after Brian Scalabrine was traded to the Clippers.

The Derrick Byars saga continues and it's unclear yet how it will turn out.

Some speculate the Heat could again offer the Spurs 2014 1st in a package with Monty Myles in exchange for a much shorter contract, despite his improved shooting and still quality defense. A few Internet sites have even reported that a potential Myles, Spurs 2014 1st, Gasol blockbuster for a younger star player could be on the horizon.

***

Context Notes
I remember that trade well. I PM'ed the Clippers and asked specifically about Marcus Banks. We really needed a backup point guard to CP3 we could trust, and I felt like Banks fit the bill. His being a UNLV alum made it all the better. I also remember it because of how fast trade negotiations went - some of the fastest I've done in any sim league.

There was another trade later on that went even faster, but that's for another time and place.

Hang on to your hats though, folks. We've seen the 11 game hot streak, we've seen this current cold run, but a very important event is due to happen next time.

[Izulde]

Can Changeover Save Miami's Playoff Dreams?

Monty Myles's stay in South Florida was a short one

Frustration mounted in Florida as the Miami Heat lost their fourth straight game, a heartbreaking 2 point 95-93 loss to the Clippers that puts the Heat at .500 and a full game behind Southeast rivals Charlotte and Washington for a playoff spot. Poor shooting again haunted Miami, save for benchmen Steve Francis (7/10 for 16 points) and Omer Asik (5/6 for 10 points).

That growing agony turned to excitement and curiosity when GM Jestor announced a stunning deal with the Houston Rockets, a multi-package affair that sends Monty Myles, Sergio Llull, Derrick Byars, Omer Asik and the San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st round pick to the Houston Rockets for centers Aleks Maric, Devon Hardin, and veteran swingman Mike Miller.


Miami's fans will be thrilled with Aleks Maric's shooting accuracy

Jestor has coveted Aleks Maric for quite some time and the accurately shooting Australian/Serbian, with his excellent passing and handling for a big, 56.2% shooting, 14.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks, will immediately fill the gaping void the Heat have had for a starting center who can shoot the ball and rebound. He also has the high discipline and intelligence the Heat prefer in their players and at 24 and in just his second season, he could well see a long career in South Beach.


Devon Hardin comes in to shore up the bench

Although some would no doubt say he's overpaid at $5.2 million a year, and he's a bit too turnover-prone for Miami's liking, 26 year old Devon Hardin will nonetheless bolster Miami's bench big situation and become a significant expiring contract next season along with Steve Francis's $7.1 million. At the very least, he should be more accurate and a better rebounder than suddenly cold Leo Lyons.


What role Mike Miller will play is still up in the air

One of the biggest questions is where Mike Miller fits into Miami's rotation. Will he take over one of the swingman spots or will he serve in a bench capacity? Even if the Heat can't figure it out, it's fine, because the 32 year old is a $5.7 million expiring contract that, from all accounts, they fully plan on jettisoning at the end of the year.


The Omer Asik experiment comes to an end

An inconsistent season that saw him win the starting spot, then lose it, then be on the verge of winning it again before he was traded finally ends in Miami for Omer Asik. The monstrously sized shotblocking Turk now takes his swatting game to Houston where he'll be competing with Ante Tomic, Shavlik Randolph, and Courtney Sims for playing time. Tomic is a fixture in the starting lineup, but can Asik win the other starting spot? One never knows what Rockets GM Gary Chan will do.


Sergio Llull gives the thumbs up to leaving Miami

Taken with the 16th overall pick in the first round and originally intended for Miami's Florida rivals, the Orlando Magic, in a deal that would have brought Kevin Garnett to the Heat, Sergio Llull has had a stormy first half-season in the NLL. Openly disliked by the management, he struggled to find playing time outside of a four game stretch as a starter when he showed flashes of something. But that something wasn't enough for him to get the spot or to keep the rumors of his imminent departure from spreading. He was one of the hottest of Miami's pieces, with several teams expressing interest.

Llull faces a guard-heavy situation in Houston and it will be interesting to see just how and where he cracks into the Rockets' rotation. Houston's been shopping its fleet of guards, so if they can work out a deal in the scant time remaining before the trade deadline ends, Sergio could see much more court time than he did in Miami.


Like Llull, the rookie Derrick Byars had a short career in Miami

No rookie was initially more hyped than Derrick "Double V" Byars by the Miami Heat, but the 2nd round pick, despite his versatility, passing and handling, and defensive toughness, just couldn't find a settled place in the rotation. He was also one of the players most coveted by Chan and the Rockets and now they finally get him, just as the Heat finally land Maric.


Monty Myles, the much maligned sign and trade splash

And then of course there's Monty Myles. The huge offseason grab from the Detroit Pistons, paid an even huger contract. After some bouncing around, he finally won the starting small forward spot, showing off some excellent defensive ability and gradual improvement in his shooting.

But even so, the front office realized it made a terrible mistake in committing that much money to a player that wasn't living up to Jestor's infamous words that "Monty Myles has All-Star, if not franchise potential."

And so the Miami Heat are paying the price of their last 2014 1st round pick, that of the San Antonio Spurs, to be rid of that overwhelming financial commitment. How Monty fits into Houston's plans, or indeed any of the players, is something no one knows.

But somehow we don't think we've seen the last of the Rockets trading during this deadline period.

The Financial Impacts for the Heat
Obviously the biggest financial impact of this trade was getting rid of Myles's contract, a lifting of a crippling burden. But the financial benefits could come quicker than just the future years the Heat no longer have to pay. To wit:

Expiring this season and won't return
Mike Miler - $5.7 million

Expiring next season and either won't return or will be back at a much reduced salary
Steve Francis - $7.1 million
Devon Hardin - $5.2 million

That's $18 million coming off the books in the next two seasons, positioning Miami to become free agent players should they choose to again, or, far more likely, they'll reverse the role they played in this deal and take on contracts for sufficient draft pick renumeration.

Of course, some of that money will go towards an attempt to re-sign Jon Brockman this offseason, and Miller's expiring should allow them to do that without endangering the team's financial future.

But there's another, much less publicized financial aspect to it. Rather than try to figure out what to do with Omer Asik this offseason, the Heat now have a locked-in, on his four year rookie contract Aleks Maric, a player they'll doubtless give an extension to when the time comes. It's excellent cost control for the next two seasons and allows them to have some projection of future years.

The Draft Impacts for the Heat
Obviously Miami is now out of the 2014 first round, but the Heat still have their own 2013 1st round pick, and, more importantly, the Pistons' 2013 1st round pick to find young players to improve their team.

The San Antonio Spurs are already contenders for the Southwest crown and in a still poor West conference, with a year of development under Ricky Rubio and DeJuan Blair's belts, plus their own 2013 1st selection, they should be in good shape to be a mid-playoff seed or Southwest champions next season.

The Starting Line-Up Impacts for the Heat
We know that Chris Paul is the point guard, Jon Brockman is the power forward and Aleks Maric is the center for now. Where it gets interesting is the swingman spots, now that Myles is gone and Daequan Cook has struggled recently.

What combination of Cook, Ricky Davis, Mike Miller, or even Steve Francis fills in those two spots? All four players have their pluses and minuses, although Francis is strictly under consideration for the SG spot.

It's one of the questions the Miami Heat will be asking themselves most intensely over the All-Star break.

And that's without considering what happens when Pau Gasol comes back from injury and affects the frontcourt situation.

Saga of Injuries Derailing Miami's Season

A sight all too common this season for Heat fans

The rush of an 106-95 road win in Chicago that snapped a four game losing streak was quickly undone by a 111-104 loss to the Pacers the next night, a defeat doubly demoralizing due to severe sprains to backcourt starters Chris Paul and Daequan Cook.

Paul beautifully carved up the Bulls for 41 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists and was aided in the win by Jon Brockman's 15 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists. Leo Lyons just missed a double-double, picking up 9 points and 11 rebounds.

But then exhaustion set in Indiana, as the team allowed the Pacers to shoot 60.5%, thus ruining Monty Myles's excellent 9 of 14 for 21 points and 6th man Steve Francis's stellar 18 bench points on 7/9 shooting. Although Paul ended with 22 points and 10 assists, he needed 29 shots and converted just 9 of them, hampered as he was by a sprained toe.

That sprain is so severe, it could keep him out of the lineup for two weeks and force him to miss as many as 6 games, a danger sign for the Heat, who have been 0-3 whenever he hasn't been in the line up.

Cook's injury may keep him out a week and a half, and for possibly as many as 4 games. That means the Heat will have to go with an entirely new starting backcourt for the next week and then need to decide what to do when Cook comes back.

GM Jestor publicly apologized to Gary Chan for starting Monty Myles and playing Omer Asik and other pieces in the currently delayed blockbuster.

"I misplaced our schedule and didn't realize we were playing. I always try and sit the guys who are on their way out once we fax the paperwork to league offices."


The pressure will be on Aleks Maric to prove his worth right away

That turned out to be fair, after all, as Aleks Maric, the center piece of the deal for the Heat, also played. He dominated the Thunder for 32 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks on 14 of 19 shooting and was 6/7 for 14 points against the Spurs, both losses.

Maric will be expected to be a major contributor once he comes to the team, especially on the offensive end in the wake of the backcourt injuries and the en masse` departure of players to Houston.

Can the Heat still make the playoffs? Currently they're 28-28 and the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Bobcats are a game and a half ahead of them at 28-25 and 27-24 respectively. The Milwaukee Bucks are also .500 at 26-26 while the hard-charging New Jersey Nets are a mere half-game behind the Heat at 27-28.

"It's possible", said one analyst, "But they've played 56 games so far, more than any other playoff contender. They absolutely can not afford to have another extended losing streak and they need to start winning games or they're finished."

"Cook and CP3's injuries really come at a bad time for them and whether or not they'll be able to roll along depends on how quickly the Maric trade gets processed and how quickly the new lineup they'll have to throw together gels.

In all honesty, I don't see them making it. They've played too many games relative to their opponents and have too many injury and potential impending chemistry problems to catch up. That won't stop Jestor from trying, though, and even if they miss the playoffs this year, they should be in excellent shape to get there next season."

***

Context Notes
Massive blockbuster of a trade. I essentially bet money that the Spurs would be a playoff team in the 2013 season prior to the 2014 draft, even though there was a distinct possibility they would be in rebuild mode by then, if I remember right.

Some reactions:

"Love it for you, well done. Maric is a fantastic player, a good guy to pair next to (or even surpass should you move him) Gasol." - Wizards

"I like this deal for both. that Spurs pick could turn out to be awesome. I have talk with Miami but I dont want be involve with anything named Monty Miles that contract is just one ofthe worst in the NLL." - New Jersey

"Talent wise I think the deal is balanced, although position wise it's better for the Heat (more guards in Houston).

Mike Miller can be really good for your team, so it can be good for you if he picks his option up. Hardin is a player that can be interesting in the right system." - Chicago

Yeah I misread it that Miller had a PO but that was okay. Wasn't going to kill me financially or anything.

The general consensus was that Miami won the trade overall, but they felt it was quite close, due mainly to Llull and the Spurs 2014 first. Then there was this reaction in the trade discussion thread:

"Also, as for the Miami deal...fantastic for Miami. Why in god's name would you do that Gary besides the 2014 first you've mortgaged a lot.

I think the Rockets-Heat deal is pretty questionable too...horrible contract, giving up the best prospect in the deal, etc." - Orlando (our main rivals and the GM I warred most with in terms of personality clashing)

But that wasn't the only big news. The trade got deleted because of what happened, but there was an Indiana/Philadelphia trade that was so lopsided in favor of the Pacers, the commissioners launched an investigation and discovered that the 76ers GM, who had just joined, knew the Pacers' GM IRL and had joined to help Indiana with trades like this. Needless to say, both GMs were immediately thrown out of the league and banned, with Indiana's GM's posts also wiped off the face of the earth.

Gotta love sim league drama and people who cheat to win in it.

Oh, and CP3/Cook getting hurt? Made me wonder if I was going to get through the season with even one noteworthy player injury-free.

[Izulde]

Miller, Maric Star In Florida Wars

New Miami C Aleks Maric works on his wingspan at his first dinner in South Florida

One of the big questions facing the Miami Heat was how they were going to fare with a radical lineup change necessitated by injuries to Chris Paul and Daequan Cook, and a massive trade that sent Monty Myles, Sergio Llull, Derrick Byars, and Omer Asik along with the San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st to the Houston Rockets for Aleks Maric, Devon Hardin and Mike Miller.

The answer so far is, not that bad, but not that great either.

In a highly publicized doubleheader with the Orlando Magic, a Florida rivalry made all the more intense because of Jestor's brief tenure in the Magic Kingdom and Orlando GM Erick Senberg's criticizing of Jestor's Magic regime, the teams split, the home court the deciding factor in each game.


Mike Miller's Miami debut wowed the fans

Game #1 (in Miami)
The Miami Heat ran out with a somewhat surprising starting lineup of:

PG Marcus Banks
SG Mike Miller
SF Ricky Davis
PF Jon Brockman
C Aleks Maric

Aleks Maric, the centerpiece of the trade, had a bad debut. He hit just 3 of 12 attempts with 9 rebounds and 2 blocks, hardly the sort of star return or accuracy the Heat were expecting.

Instead, it was Mike Miller who stepped up as the best newcomer. Showing off the shooting form he's built his professional career on, he hit 8 of 11 shots, 5 of 8 from three point range, for 27 points. Most importantly, he held Demar Derozan, the Magic's superstar, to a draw in the points category.

The bench also played a key role in Miami's 107-94 win. Anthony Morrow was 5 of 7 for 10 points and Steve Francis, despite an off shooting night, still compiled 12 points and 5 rebounds off the bench.

Game #2 (in Orlando)
Miami lost the back end 93-77 due to the following reasons:
1. Nobody gave Aleks Maric, who broke out with 29 points and 16 rebounds on 11/23 shooting, any help. The most egregious violators were Jon Brockman (1/10) and Mike Miller (4/15).

2. It was the Magic's reserves who broke out this game. Wayne Ellington doubled for 16 points, 13 assists and 4 steals, and Jeff Adrien dropped in 13 points and 3 blocks.

Coming later today: A look at the Florida Wars' future.

Florida's Hoops Future


No doubt who Miami's current and future star is, although Chris Paul needs to take Miami to the playoffs if he wants to win the MVP award

The Orlando/Miami series gives us an opportunity to take a look at the short and long-term futures of the Miami Heat's starting lineup as well as the Florida Wars rivalry.

Projecting the Future #1 - Miami's Starting Lineup
Because of the Heat's injury situation and the trade, you can expect to see more changes in Miami's lineup over the next two weeks. Let's look at a position by position breakdown.

Point Guard
Last two games: Marcus Banks
Time Until CP3 Returns: 10 days
Games Without CP3: 4 (@ Nets, vs. Kings, @ Cavs, vs. 76ers)
Possible Candidates: Banks, Francis

It's a tough stretch of four games coming up without CP3, with likely guaranteed losses against the Kings and the Cavaliers and 50/50 games against New Jersey and Philadelphia.

Against Orlando, our two candidates did the following:
Banks: 7/20 (35%) - 8.5 PPG, 6 APG, 2 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 2 TOPG, 3 A/TO
Francis: 6/15 (40%) - 10 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.5 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 4 TOPG, 1.4 A/TO

Analysis
It's still a coin flip as to which player will start in any given game. Eric Musselman will no doubt take a close look at each opponent. That said, Francis didn't fare well as a starter and Jestorball's emphasis on ball security and the UNLV factor both suggest Banks is more likely to keep the starting spot.

Shooting Guard
Last 2 games: Mike Miller
Time Until Daequan Cook returns: 5 days
Games without Cook: 2 (@ Nets, vs. Kings)
Candidates: Miller, Francis, Cook, Ricky Davis

The two spot is the most muddled in Miami's lineup, especially after Cook comes back from injury. This one's going to cause a lot of tossing and turning for the coaching staff.

Against Orlando:
Miller: 12/26 (46.1%), 17.5 PPG, 3.5 APG, 4 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 2 TOPG
Francis: 6/15 (40%) - 10 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.5 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 4 TOPG
Davis: 9/18 (50%) - 10.5 PPG, 2.5 APG, 3 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 1.5 TOPG

Analysis
It's safe to say that Davis will have a starting spot for the next two games. Upon further review, it's also safe to say that Francis won't be starting at shooting guard without CP3, because the Heat are thin at PG-capable players after trading Llull and Byars. Essentially the next two games are coin-flips between Miller and Davis starting at the 2 and 3, but where it gets interesting is when Cook comes back.

Cook has been one of Miami's most accurate shooters, but after his injury before the most recent one, he struggled out of the gate and although he eventually found his shooting stroke before getting hurt again, he was just 7/26 (26.9%) from long-range, and he'd been shooting over 40% in that category.

What it boils down to is how well Miller and Davis play over the next two games. If they can show they deserve to keep their starting spots, Cook will move in to the 6th man role. If one of them falters, Cook steps back into the starting five.

Small Forward
See the SG discussion, because it's the same candidates and all three players have proved capable of playing both spots.

Power Forward
Last two games: Jon Brockman
Time until Pau Gasol returns: 14 days
Games Missed: 6 (@ Nets, vs. Kings, @ Cavs, vs. 76ers, vs. Timberwolves, vs. Nets)
Candidates: Brockman, Devon Hardin

We all know Gasol is going to slide into either the 4 or the 5 when he returns, so there's no issue for the incumbent starter like with Cook. Where it gets interesting is in the power forward competition, where Brockman's inconsistent shooting (although improved) is matching up against a Hardin that might be better than the Heat first tought.

Against Orlando:
Brockman: 5/21 (23.8%) - 9.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0 BPG, 1 TOPG
Hardin: 5/7 (71.4%) - 6 PPG, 2 RPG, 1 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0 TOPG

Analysis
Keep in mind that Hardin's statistics only come with 12.5 MPG, so it's a little hard to judge accurately. That said, Hardin's three inches taller than Brockman, a better free throw shooter and shotblocker, and a much more traditional post player in the Jestorball mold. He also appears to have better handling ability than first thought. On the other hand, Brockman's thicker, a proven passer and ballhandler, a better defender and with much better discipline and basketball understanding. Miami also really wants to re-sign Brockman in the offseason and benching him might cause him to re-think his situation.

Tough one to call, but we'll say that Hardin will get his chance in the lineup at some point during these six games to show what he can do. His record in Houston was mixed, but the Rockets have a run and gun system, whereas the Heat tend to be a moderate offense.

Center
Maric all the way. The only question is where he and Pau play when Gasol returns.

The Florida Wars' Future
Last season, the Miami Heat were one of the league's biggest underachievers with 27 wins. Jestor came in and completely remade the team, the end result of which is that at 29-29, Miami's already improved over last year, both now and going forward.

After the most recent trade, it's clear that the Heat intend to anchor themselves with Chris Paul and Aleks Maric as the cornerstones of a future championship run. The only question is the timing of that run. Will they keep Pau Gasol and attempt to challenge the Pistons and Cavaliers in the next few seasons, or will they take a longer view and trade him?

Gasol's situation in Miami has been a bit murky for much of the season, particularly after the failed Emeka Okafor trade. What the Heat decide to do with him will be one of many critical offseason decisions.

Erick Senberg, in counterpoint, has carefully built the Magic into a young, up and coming power. Only little-used Henry Saari is over 30 and Orlando has definitely been constructed according to Senberg's philosophy of how a basketball team should run on the court.

While the two rival GMs differ somewhat in their main focuses, with Senberg valuing rebounding, efficiency, depth and multiple scoring threats, and Jestor favoring passing, handling, shooting accuracy (another term for Senberg's efficiency), and intangibles, they have a key point of agreement in that it all begins with having at least one superstar to carry the team.

The Heat have CP3, the Magic Demar Derozan and the two should battle for MVP supremacy over the next several seasons.

In terms of draft picks:

Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic 2013 1st
Orlando Magic 2013 2nd
Boston Celtics 2014 1st
New York Knicks 2014 1st
Toronto Raptors 2014 1st
Orlando Magic 2014 1st
Houston Rockets 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2014 2nd
Orlando Magic 2015 1st

Miami Heat
Miami Heat 2013 1st
Detroit Pistons 2013 1st
Atlanta Hawks 2013 2nd
New York Knicks 2014 2nd
Miami Heat 2015 1st
Miami Heat 2015 2nd

Under league rules, the Magic can only keep three of their 2014 1sts and it's well-known Orlando's been actively been trying to use those extra selections to acquire a third star. Some speculate that they may have been the team that initially ignited the rumor that Chris Paul might be traded with a lucrative package.

Few, if any, doubt that Senberg will get something of value for those first round selections and Orlando's rise to contender will continue.

Thus, it appears that the Florida Wars, which in recent seasons have been rather dull, now feature two quality teams who are quickly rising in NLL stature. While the Detroit/Cleveland pair of monoliths make realizing championship dreams difficult, Miami and Orlando will battle Charlotte for Southeast supremacy for several seasons to come, in what should be the NLL's most difficult division, save for perhaps the Central.

And from there, the fight is on to try and win the ring.

***

Context Notes
Yeah, Orlando are still our biggest rivals, though we also have a friendly rivalry with Charlotte, but more on that in future context notes.

Biggest thing here is that we had 29 wins already, which already superseded the 27 wins we had all of last year when I came in at the very tail end of the season.

[Cap Ologist]

Why could he only keep 3 draft picks?

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Cap Ologist

Why could he only keep 3 draft picks?

League rule that you can only have 3 first round picks in any given draft. Another rule is that you have to have your own pick every other year.

The max three picks per first round rule has become fairly standardized for most MP leagues, I think. It's the same way in GAH.

The requiring own pick every other year rule came about because in the past, teams would rashly trade away all their own firsts and be so mismanaged, you saw teams like Detroit rack up a lot of lottery picks.

Personally, I hate that second rule, so in GAH, it's just that you need a first round pick every other year, not necessarily your own.

Edit: I should also add that you can have more than three first round picks in a given year, but by the time the draft hits you can not draft more than three players yourself in the first round, so it's not a basis for which to deny trades.

Not having your own first every other year or a first every other year, depending on the league, is, however, grounds for denying a trade. You can always trade off your excess picks. You can't always get your own or another first back.

[Izulde]

Maric Showing Increasing Comfort and Chemistry

Despite a 1-3 record since his arrival, Aleks Maric has looked more and more in tune with Miami's offense

3 points. That was all that separated a Miami Heat team missing Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, and Pau Gasol from an upset of the West's second-best team.

The 103-100 loss was a heartbreaker for the Heat, who now drop 2.5 games behind the Washington Wizards for the 8th playoff seed.

But in this defeat, there lay hope for optimism. Recent pickup Aleks Maric has looked better with each game and broke 30 points for the first time in a Heat uniform, going 13/21 with 8 rebounds. Marcus Banks had 10 assists and 2 steals with just one turnover and held Dwayne Wade to 8/21 shooting. Likewise, although Devon Hardin was just 1 for 6, he grabbed 13 rebounds and held Yao Ming to 17 points and 10 rebounds on 5 of 13.

Steve Francis, formerly a 6th man of the Year candidate, continued his cold streak and was a major factor in the loss, shooting an abysmal 31% on 5 of 16 shooting, just 2 of 8 from three point range.

Cook returns next game and as of yet, it remains unclear as to if he'll take his old spot in the starting lineup or if he'll slide in as the 6th man.

"These losses have been tough", Heat coach Eric Musselman said after the game, "But we're getting a much better idea of how our team is shaking out and what we want the depth chart to look like once again Chris and Pau come back."

The only question is if it'll be too late for Miami to make that playoff push.

True Test To Come In Coming Games

A solid performance in his return had Miami fans celebrating Chris Paul

"I knew we had to beat them, so I stepped up."

Those were Chris Paul's words after he led the Miami Heat to a 104-89 win over his former team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, in his first game back from a sprained toe.

Paul finished with 29 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds to spearhead an outside shooting assault that also included 22 points from Daequan Cook and 21 points from Mike Miller. Jon Brockman double-doubled for 15 points and 13 rebounds and although Aleks Maric was held to 8 points, he had 11 rebounds and 4 blocks.

Maric also held Tim Duncan to 3 of 11 shooting (27.3%), well below Duncan's 49.9% season average.

Paul played 45 of 48 minutes and admitted after the game he felt tired.

"It takes a lot out of you to go full throttle like that your first game back, but it felt great helping the team out, especially beating Minnesota."

After the win, the Heat, who have only won two games without Paul in the lineup, are 31-32, 1.5 games back of Milwaukee for 9th in the conference and 2 games back of Southeast foes Washington and Charlotte for the #7 and #8 playoff seeds.

"It's going to be crazy as we hit the home stretch", Miami head coach Eric Musselman said. "You've got four teams in the hunt for two spots."

The New Jersey Nets are up next on the docket for the Heat and if they can beat the Derrick Rose-less team, Miami can all but guarantee the Nets finish in the lottery. After that, an all-important showdown with the Bucks that has major playoff implications.

Drama Abounds For #1, #7 and #8 Seeds

NLL assists leader Deron Williams is fighting to get his Wizards back into the postseason

What a crazy year it's been in the East. From the meteoric rise of the Cleveland Cavaliers to the stunning collapse of the Philadelphia 76ers and everything in between, it's been a season to remember.

And we aren't done yet.

With roughly a quarter remaining in the season, NLL fans have the joy of watching an epic battle for the East's top seed between the first two teams to 50 wins and a scrum at the bottom for four teams for the #7 and #8 spots. There's also a tight race for the #4 to 6 seeds, but we'll take a look at those in Issue II next week.

Current Standings
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - 55-6
2. Detroit Pistons - 53-9
3. New York Knicks - 44-18
4. Atlanta Hawks - 40-23
5. Chicago Bulls - 38-23
6. Boston Celtics - 38-26
7. Charlotte Bobcats - 33-28
8. Washington Wizards - 32-29
---------------------------------
9. Milwaukee Bucks - 32-30
10. Miami Heat - 33-33


Home: 29-3
Away: 26-3
Remaining home games: 9
Remaining away games: 12
Current injuries: Dionte Christmas (Res.) - Sprained Toe
Key Dates: March 20th - vs. Pistons; April 15th - @ Pistons; March 29th - @ Bulls

Cleveland's looked Pistons-esque this year, a brilliant tour de force whose balanced attack (6 players with 10+ points) is spearheaded by team heart and soul Mike Conley's 21 points, 6.8 assists and 3.3 steals. The Cavaliers lead in almost every defensive category and are in the top 5 in nearly every offensive category, including #1 in league shooting at 51.9% a game. The secret to their success lies in part in their rotation. 8 players average 20+ minutes, keeping the stars fresh and helping prevent injuries.

As for the remaining schedule, it doesn't matter much whether it's home or away, Cleveland is that good. The Cavaliers can, however, go a long way to clinching the #1 seed by knocking out the Pistons in their remaining games and exorcising the Chicago ghost. The Bulls have handed Cleveland 2 of their 6 losses this year.


Home: 27-2
Away: 26-7
Remaining home games: 12
Remaining away games: 8
Key dates: March 20th - @ Cleveland, April 15th - vs Cleveland
Current injuries: None

Detroit's only looked a little off the pace because Cleveland's been so good. The dynasty is still one of the league's top two teams and more importantly, they have the fire in the belly to stave off the young upstarts. Lebron James (22.3 points, 8.2 assists, 1.4 steals) and Greg Oden (15.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.6 blocks) still headline the team, but the Pistons also have arguably two of the best young bench players in Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson.

Can the Pistons make up the 2.5 games? Yes, but as things stand, they'll need to sweep the Cavaliers to really give them hope. It's certainly possible, although the home team has won in each of the Detroit/Cleveland games this year.

And now on to the #7 and #8 battle.


Home: 20-11
Away: 13-17
Remaining home games: 10
Remaining away games: 11
Key dates: March 24th - vs. Heat, April 6th - @ Bucks, April 15th - @ Wizards, April 17th - @ Heat
Current injuries: Jaycee Carroll (Res. - Strained Knee - 6 days), Andre Igudola (Res. - Sprained Toe - 13 days)

Although the Bobcats currently sit in the 7th spot, they have a brutal schedule remaining. Not only do they have 3 out of 4 Key Dates on the road, but they have to play Southeast-leading Atlanta twice and have home dates against the Knicks and Pistons.

Charlotte has a great core in Gerald Green, Brad Stokes, Kevin Love and B.J. Mullens and they'll need those young players to step up and deliver if the Bobcats want to go back to the playoffs.


Home: 22-10
Away: 10-19
Remaining home games: 9
Remaining away games: 12
Key dates: March 16th - @ Bucks, April 9th - vs. Bucks, April 15th - vs. Bobcats
Current injuries: Brandon Wright (S - Broken ankle - 54 days), Manu Ginobli (Res. - Sore back - 4 days), Nick Smith (S - Broken leg - 2 days), Rashon Felix (S/Res. - Sore hip - 2 days)

Losing Wright for the regular season was a tough blow, but Washington's held up fine and they return Smith soon. They also have a comparatively easy schedule, playing the Jazz and Pacers twice and getting the Thunder on the road. The Wizards do have a 5 game road trip at the end of March, but if they can get through that well, they should be in the postseason.


Home: 18-13
Away: 14-17
Remaining home games: 10
Remaining away games: 10
Key dates: March 16th - vs. Wizards, April 6th - vs. Bobcats, April 9th - @ Wizards
Current injuries: Kirk Hinrich (S. - Torn Knee Tendon - Lost for year)

Toney Douglas has stepped up hugely in Hinrich's absence, averaging 10.1 points, 6.8 assists and 1.2 steals in 44 starts. Milwaukee's schedule is similar to the Wizards in that they have a 5 game road swing at the end of March, but a relatively soft schedule overall. Losing to the Heat two nights ago was significant, but there's still plenty of room and opportunity for the Bucks to move back into the playoffs, especially given their comparative road parity.


Home: 22-11
Away: 11-22
Remaining home games: 8
Remaining away games: 8
Key dates: March 24th - @ Bobcats, April 17th - vs. Bobcats
Current injuries: Aleks Maric (S - sore shoulder - 6 days), Steve Francis (Res. - sore hand - 5 days)

Miami has a somewhat favorable schedule in terms of matchups, but the fact they've played 66 games and are .500 is a huge weight against them since the teams above have games in hand on them. It's going to be a race against time, but Pau Gasol's return will be a huge help and if the Heat can avoid injuries to their stars, as has happened far too often this season, they just might slip in.

Indeed, as their convincing home win over the Bucks, followed by a hard-fought 10 point loss the next night in New York shows, they have the 3 star system in Gasol, Chris Paul, and Aleks Maric to pull it off. But it may be too little, too late.

Projected Shakeout
Cleveland Cavaliers - #1
Detroit Pistons - #2
Milwaukee Bucks - #7
Charlotte Bobcats - #8
-------------------------
Washington Wizards - #9
Miami Heat - #10

***

Context Notes
Obviously the last article gives you a little bit better overview of how the East, at least, looked in this league towards the end stretch of my first full season.

Hard to believe CP3 played 45 minutes in his first game back. I must not have set the sub matrix then, as I usually keep my guys around 32 minutes to try and limit injuries (Ironically enough).

[Izulde]

Focus Shifts To Offseason

Will Pau Gasol be glamming it up elsewhere next season?

The Miami Heat may be 38-36 and finally appear to be gelling, but with the Charlotte Bobcats 39-33 and the Milwaukee Bucks already with 40 wins, the Heat's playoff chances look all but mathematically eliminated.

It's been a wild year in South Beach. GM Dan Donovan was fired in the offseason and replaced by Jestor, who instantly engaged in a remodeling project, the results of which will be more fully covered in the season review.

More trades came through the year, including a canceled swap of Pau Gasol to the Boston Celtics for Emeka Okafor and other pieces. There were also the injuries, a serious one to Pau Gasol and constant ones to Chris Paul.

And of course, the streaks. Winning streaks, losing streaks; the Heat was as volatile as their GM's reported mood swings. In the end, it's all translated into a vastly improved record over the prior season, but just short of the playoffs.

Now the emphasis is on the offseason and sources in South Florida say the conversation is heaviest round two players.

Pau Gasol


Gasol missed two months with a broken bone and hasn't looked quite as sharp since coming back. Much of it can be attributed to the fact that he was playing with an entirely new lineup, as several of Miami's trades happened during his time out.

He's still one of the better bigs in the league, though, and teams continue to covet him. It's believed the front office will shop him during the offseason and could possibly move him before the draft.

"If Miami doesn't move him during the draft, he won't be traded at all," suggested one analyst. "What they do during the draft is absolutely dependent on what they do with Pau. Keep him, and they probably look at a swingman with their Top 15 pick. Trade him, and they'll likely look at a big man."

Jon Brockman


If the discussion over Gasol is heated, it might be even more fiery over Jon Brockman, who has a boatload of positives (defense, rebounding, handling, foul drawing), but who is both undersized and a still inaccurate shooter. That lack of shooting accuracy caused him to get benched after the Aleks Maric trade and Gasol's return.

There's also the question, if the Heat decide to retain him, of how much they would want to pay for his services. Since it isn't likely Brockman would be a starter unless Gasol were traded and the pick proved too raw to step into the lineup, it's not certain what kind of money they'd commit.

A sign and trade could be in the works as well, although how likely that is to happen is unclear with the amount of cap space teams have and the propensity for bidding wars over free agents.

Who Won't Be Going
It's safe to say that Chris Paul and Aleks Maric won't be traded. Neither is it likely Daequan Cook or Anthony Morrow leave.

Who Won't Return
Sources say Ricky Davis will play elsewhere next year.

Who Could Go
Anyone not mentioned, although the Heat reportedly have particular interest in trading Mike Miller and Steve Francis, but won't pay anyone to take them since they're both expiring contracts and can still contribute to a number of teams.

Who Might Return
Jestor loves having a UNLV connection and Miami's coaching staff was impressed with Marcus Banks's passing and ball security as Paul's backup. It's quite possible the former Runnin' Reb comes back, but likely only on a one year minimum salary deal.

Gasol Game MVP Amidst Trade Rumors

Spanish-language tabloids report Pau Gasol's girlfriend has been a great comfort to him during his rollercoaster season

Just days after whispers of Heat GM Jestor having a nervous breakdown, trade speculation target Pau Gasol led Miami to a brisk 102-85 win over the Memphis Grizzlies for the Heat's fifth straight win and their seventh in eighth games. Gasol put up 20 points, 11 rebounds and 4 blocks and he was aided by Chris Paul's 12 points and 11 assists, Anthony Morrow's 10 bench points, and Marcus Banks's 8 points and 8 assists with just 1 turnover off the bench.

The victory is also the Heat's 40th of the season, and with six games remaining, chances are good that Miami finishes .500 or better for the first time since 2009, when they were 51-31 and won the Southeast.

"The fact that we're finishing how we are, with all our injury problems and all the flux in our roster is a testament to the front office, the players and the coaching staff," head coach Eric Musselman said after the game.

"We've overcome a lot of adversity this season and no matter what happens with the playoffs or the lottery situation, wherever we end up, this is a year I think all of us can take some pride in."

Can Miami Beat Tiebreaker Spread?

No, we don't mean *that* Wire. The Heat are definitely targeting the Bobcats, however.

The textbook roller coaster season comes down to this game for the Miami Heat. The Charlotte Bobcats are taking the trek to South Beach. Should Charlotte win, or, according to the NLL Stats Bureau, lose by less than 9 points, they clinch the final playoff spot.

If Miami wins by 10 or more, they're still in the running, but they would have to both beat Orlando on the road the next night and see Charlotte lose to the Pistons in North Carolina, neither of which are certainties in this year's wild NLL.

A breakdown of the projected starters:

Point Guard
Carlos Arroyo vs. Chris Paul
Arroyo has been a quietly consistent player for the Bobcats this season, posting 10.1 points and 6.1 assists. Unfortunately, he's been bothered by back spasms, which have greatly affected his shooting in recent games. On the other hand, putting anyone else against CP3 is likely to result in Paul's torching Charlotte.

Paul needs little introduction. #2 in the league in scoring at 23.3 points a game along with his 6.8 assists and 1.8 steals (T-10th in the league). That's to say nothing of his 4.0 A/TO ratio. If Miami makes the playoffs, expect Paul to get MVP consideration.

Advantage: Miami

Shooting Guard
Brad Stokes vs. Daequan Cook
Stokes, averaging 15.3 points and 1.1 steals a game, is one of the most accurate shooting guards in the league at 51.3%. He's also a quality defender.

10.6 points and 1.3 steals for Cook, averaging 48.8% shooting, 40.5% from long-range. While not quite as esteemed a defender as Stokes, Daequan's intelligence and discipline are excellent, making him a favorite of many in the league. He also has 2 inches on Stokes.

Advantage: Draw

Small Forward
Gerald Green vs. Mike Miller
Green's also a top scorer at 22.2 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal per game. He's shooting a career high 51% and his 6'8, 204 lb. frame has allowed him to stop 93.8% of the drives that have come his way this season. A true franchise player.

Look up gritty veteran and you'll find Miller's picture. Averaging 9.1 points between Houston and Miami and his shooting percentages have gone up considerably since coming to the Heat and winning a starting spot for the first time since 2008 with the Nets. That said, he's merely a good all-around player and not a standout in any one area.

Advantage: Charlotte

Power Forward
Kevin Love vs. Aleks Maric
Love has fit in seamlessly into the Bobcats' rotation and it was after he arrived that Charlotte really took off. Averaging 14.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4 assists per game at 50.5% shooting for the season. One of the smartest and most disciplined players in the entire league. Does only stop 72% of drives, though.

Maric's averaging 14.9 points, 8.6 points and 1.9 blocks split between Houston and Miami. That said, his shooting percentage has gone from 57.2 to 54.7 since the trade. He's still capable of dominating a game, though, as he did against the Pacers with 25 points on 10/18 shooting. While not quite as disciplined or intelligent as Love, Maric ranks high and he's also stopped 80.4% of his drives.

Advantage: Draw

Center
B.J. Mullens vs. Pau Gasol
When you're a second year center and you're averaging 17.1 points, 10.9 rebounds and 1.5 blocks at 20 years old, you're already a franchise center, especially when you shoot 54.2%. 7' 275 frame is one of the hardest to defend against.

Gasol is 7' himself, but gives up 33 pounds to Mullens. 50.1% shooting for 15.1 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. Also a far more intelligent player than Mullens, but the real ace is Gasol's 91.9% stop rate, which will be critical in trying to neutralize the young gun. It's a classic case of the star youth vs. the savvy, talented veteran and it's a battle that could decide the game.

Advantage: Draw

Bench
Jaycee Carroll is Charlotte's 3 point specialist and main bench scorer, averaging 9.6 points a game. Travis Outlaw is the defensive stopper - 94.1%. Jrue Holiday is perhaps the most underrated 3 point shooter in the league. He's converting 51.1% from long range. Unfortunately, his passing and handling are better suited to a backup role. The Lopez brothers are here, but they make for poor bench bigs, a potential Achilles heel.

Looking at the stats of Miami's bench is misleading. Steve Francis was originally a 6th man of the Year candidate, but hasn't seen the court in a long time. Jon Brockman is averaging 8.9 points and 5.7 rebounds, but started 43 games.and has an awful 38.7% shooting percentage. Brockman's praised for his defense, but stops just 77.6% of drives.

More reliable: Ricky Davis with 96.7% drives stopped, best on the team. Devon Hardin - 95.2% drives stopped while averaging 5 points and 5.3 rebounds with 48.8% shooting. Anthony Morrow 6.5 points with 43.4% shooting from 3 point range. Marcus Banks with a sterling 4.2 A/TO ratio, causing him to beat out Francis for the backup PG spot.

In short, it's a little hard to compare the benches, because Charlotte doesn't use their bigs much and Miami constantly tinkers with their rotations due to injuries and riding the hot hand.

Advantage: Probably slightly Miami

Larger Picture Notes
Miami is 27-13 at home and ranks #1 in fewest turnovers allowed/game at 12. They also rank #1 in fewest steals allowed/game at 5.7.

Charlotte is 18-22 on the road and ranks #7 in scoring at 100.2 points a game, #4 in assists (26.8), T-6th in rebounds (42.7), #3 in shooting % (48.5), #6 in FT % (78.8), #8 in turnovers allowed (14.3), #8 in rebounds allowed (40.2).

Final Verdict
This one is really too close to call. Paul should dominate Arroyo, Green should dominate Miller, and then it's an all-out coin-flip to decide who wins.

Is This Tired Heat's Final Fantasy?

SF Mike Miller's all-around game was representative of how the Heat stayed alive in the race for 8

Last night, 90 miles from Cuba, the Miami Heat looked like a Southern version of the Chicago Bulls, attempting 35 three-pointers and hitting 15 (42.9%) on their way to a rousing 100-85 win over the Charlotte Bobcats to send the decision of the East's 8th playoff spot to the NLL's final night.

Although it was Gerald Green who won Player of the Game with his stellar 29 point, 6 rebound outing on 12/23 shooting, and although the Bobcats boasted two double-doubles in Kevin Love (17 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists) and B.J. Mullens (16 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks), it was Miami's triumph in front of a delirious, sellout crowd in the end.

Chris Paul's 22 points and 6 assists with no turnovers and Pau Gasol's 10 points and 11 rebounds are the statistical highlights that would pop out to the casual observer, but this game was won because of the entire time.

There was Mike Miller, countering Green's splendor as well as he could with a balanced game of 18 points on 7/15 shooting, adding 5 assists and 3 steals. Daequan Cook hit 4/6 shots, including 4/4 from long range, and just missed the double-double, finishing with 13 points and 9 assists. Not to be outdone, backup point guard and former UNLV star Marcus Banks converted 3 of 4 shots from downtown, ending the game with 9 points and 4 assists, also with nary a turnover.

And then there was the quietest, but in many ways the biggest, unsung hero.


Aleks Maric didn't have an electrifying sideways dunk, but he was crucial

Aleks Maric played the defensive game of his life, ensuring Kevin Love's double-double was a Pyrrhic one. The former Cornhusker held Love to 5 of 18 shooting (27.8%), 2/7 from 3 point range (28.6%). In addition, Maric had 8 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks, a versatility that matched fellow one-time Rocket Miller's all-around outing.

Maric admitted to being tired after the game.

"Kevin's a terrific player and you've got to stay on him the whole game or he'll destroy you. I'm exhausted, but we've still got to win in Orlando tomorrow night," he said.

Not only do the Heat have to face Jestor's old team, the Orlando Magic, and beat them in the Magic Kingdom on the back end of a doubleheader, but the Charlotte Bobcats need to lose when they host Detroit tonight.

Although Orlando is missing franchise star Demar Derozan, the Magic will still be an extremely difficult test. Not only is the Heat 15-25 on the road this season, but Orlando plays a stifling, swarming defensive game and GM Erick Senberg is considered one of the league's great tacticians.

"I talked up the Florida rivalry earlier this season," a bemused Jestor, GM of the Heat, noted. "Now it seems as though the first significant chapter will get written tomorrow night."

All eyes will be on Miami's head coach, Eric Musselman, to see if he can draw up a gameplan as brilliant as the bombs-away strategy that knocked off the Bobcats.

Eric vs. Erick.

Miami vs. Orlando.

The final playoff spot on the line.

Does the last night of the NLL regular season get any better than this?

***

Context Notes
Setting up easily the most exciting final regular season sim of any league I've ever been in. To go through all the crap and all the injuries we did and still have a shot at a playoff spot in the league's superior conference made me feel damned good.

So many times I and everyone else had left us for dead, but there we were with a fighting chance.

[hoopsguy]

Good luck taking down Orlando and being a sacrificial lamb to one of the two Eastern juggernauts.

I know that is the extremely pessimistic viewpoint. Win or lose, sounds like you had a nice jump both in wins and overall franchise viability this season.

[Izulde]

Miami Loses Playoff Spot To Coin Flip; Tropical Storm Grounds Heat Scouting Planes

Bob prevented the Miami Heat's scouts from flying to see players

The Miami Heat got it done and were about to get it done, but luck and Mother Nature had other plans for a team already afflicted with so much adversity this season.

Needing to beat the Magic in Orlando, the Heat did it, whipping their Florida rivals 111-69 behind Pau Gasol's 25 points and 10 rebounds, Mike Miller's 20 point, and reserve point guard Marcus Banks's 11 points, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Despite their exhaustion from playing the Bobcats the night before, the Heat shot 57.5%, while holding the Magic to 34.6%.

All eyes were also on the matchup in Charlotte, where the Bobcats lost to the Detroit Pistons 98-80. Celebrations broke out in South Florida and flights and playoff tickets were booked.

Until the NLL stepped in and said the tiebreaker would be determined by a coin flip. In a three-way videoconference, the Miami Heat were given the right to choose first and took tails. The coin came up heads and it was the Bobcats on to the playoffs. A few have insinuated the coin was double-headed, but brokenhearted Miami opted not to file a complaint.

But that wasn't the only misfortune to befall the Heat last night.

Tropical Storm Bob suddenly hit inland, venting his fury and forcing all flights out of Miami's airports to be canceled. Heat scouts, who had just been given their assignments, were forced to stay behind, and under NLL scouting rules, teams are no longer eligible to send scouts out to review players.*

"It's been a rough night," a frazzled Heat GM Jestor admitted. "To get slammed with the double whammy like that is devastating. But who knows? Maybe these things happened for a reason."

Miami's season review will published during the playoffs.

* - We had a nasty thunderstorm all last night here in Las Vegas and lost Internet right when I was starting to email out my scouting reports. We didn't get it back until after the sim was run. I'm not asking for a reprieve or anything; I should have done it sooner. But I just thought it was another layer of irony, sprinkled on top of Wolverine Studios' DDSPB Community Manager getting eliminated from the playoff race because of a DDS glitch.

UNLV Connection Hopes For Miracle

PG Marcus Banks revived his career after being traded to Miami

Marcus Banks, the point guard who experienced a small renaissance after joining the Miami Heat, knocking Steve Francis out of the backup point guard spot, will be the Miami Heat's representative at tonight's lottery, despite being an impeding free agent.

The surehanded Banks is emblematic of the Heat's ball security mantra and also shares a UNLV connection with Miam GM Jestor.

"We're hoping for some of that 1990 Runnin' Rebels luck," Jestor said.

Some speculate the decision is also a pre-emptive strike on Jestor's part to induce Banks to re-sign with the Heat, given his raised profile will get him more looks this offseason.

A Rollercoaster Season Falls Just Short Of Playoffs

Obtaining Chris Paul was arguably Heat GM Jestor's greatest accomplishment this season

Although the Miami Heat's season ended in bitter disappointment, with a wrongway coin flip and no miracle in the lottery, the fact remains that the year proved more successful than many predicted, particularly after injuries to Pau Gasol and Chris Paul.

It all began with the start of the offseason when Jestor returned to the NLL after a year and a half's hiatus. The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat had recently sacked their general managers and Jestor opted to return to Florida, where he was briefly the GM of the Orlando Magic.

He inherited a roster that some promising young players, primarily Stanley Robinson, and a mid first round pick, the Rockets', as the previous management had dealt away Miami's own first to the Detroit Pistons, which ended up a Top 5 pick after the Heat's 27 win season.

Recognizing the need to make dramatic changes, Jestor started his South Beach reign with a bang, a three-way blockbuster with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic.

Miami Heat receive
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000

Minnesota Timberwolves receive
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Orlando Magic receive
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Chris Paul became the Heat's immediate franchise face and would have earned MVP consideration had Miami made the playoffs. As it is, his 23.2 points a game ranked #2 in the league behind Dwayne Wade and he also posted 6.8 assists and 1.8 steals as one of the league's best players.

Daequan Cook bounced between the 2 and 3 spots before finally settling into the starting SG role, averaging 10.6 points and 1.3 steals while shooting 48.8%, 41.2% from long range.

The trade was an overwhelming victory for the Heat, as Sessions was never considered more than a 5th starter by the front office and indeed, he shot 37.7% for the Timberwolves, albeit with 9.1 assists a game. Gay and Robinson didn't last long with Minnesota and while Adrien blossomed in Orlando, Samb struggled this season.

Jestor's second trade was much less successful.

Miami Heat receive
PF Omer Asik - $667,417

Cleveland Cavaliers receive
SF Richard Jefferson - $12,626,000
Toronto Raptors 2015 2nd

Toronto Raptors receive
SF Al Harrington - $9,317,000
Cleveland Cavaliers 2013 2nd
Cleveland Cavaliers 2015 2nd

Asik was a player a lot of teams were high on, including the Heat, but despite ample opportunity to become a worthwhile presence down low, Omer never materialized as a legitimate starter. Jefferson, meanwhile, became a vital cog in the 72 win Cavaliers' attack.

Although the cap space was a major part of the trade for Miami, it all got blown in the most infamous of the offseason deals.

Miami Heat receive
Monty Myles - $10,350,000 (via sign and trade)
Detroit Pistons 2013 1st

Detroit Pistons receive
L.R. Mbah a Moute - $2,000,000
Miami 2014 1st - Top 5 Protected

Myles bombed spectacularly, despite being given opportunities similar to Asik. Although he showed flashes of greatness, he never came close to living up to his massive contract. a Moute, on the other hand, was barely used and is demanding a trade. The Pistons pick is #29 in the deepest draft in NLL history, but the overall victor of the deal is still to be determined, as we don't know how the Heat will perform in 2014, or, should the pick fall to 2015, then.

Sergio Lull, Derrick Byars, and Milovan Rakovic were the draft selections, although Llull was designed to go to the Orlando Magic until the Heat thought Myles would be better than trying to go for it all by acquiring Kevin Garnett in a three-way. It was a decision that would prove disastrous not only for the Myles reasons, but because the organization had no interest in Llull themselves.

Miami went into the season with a line of Paul/Cook/Myles/Pau Gasol/Asik and the team struggled to find a rhythm while this new-look lineup played with each other.

Then another trade broke in late November.

Miami Heat receive
PG Steve Francis - $7,786,880
PF Jon Brockman - $667,417

Charlotte Bobcats receive
PG Earl Watson - $6,200,000
PG Darren Collison - $2,703,960
Miami Heat 2014 2nd round pick

The Bobcats got the cap relief they wanted and Miami got a topnotch defender in Brockman, who flitted between SF and PF before settling into the PF spot until a later trade moved him to the bench. But the real surprise was Francis, who became a serious 6th Man of the Year candidate during a stunning 10 game win streak after Gasol's two month injury, providing the Heat the offensive bench spark they desperately needed in the wake of that loss.

Miami made two more trades near the deadline.

Miami Heat receive
Ricky Davis - $2,500,000
Marcus Banks - $921,587

Los Angeles Clippers receive
Brian Scalabrine - $2,554,400

Davis proved a fantastic perimeter stopper, although inconsistent shooting and turnovers earned him a trip to the bench. Banks, who was the real reason the Heat started talks with the Clippers, made Jestor look smart in surpassing Francis as the backup PG and posting a team high 4.4 A/TO ratio. Scalabrine, meanwhile, became a useful defensive reserve for the Clippers and played a role in their making it to the postseason.

And then came the trade that reversed all the bad mojo from Jestor's offseason errors.

Miami Heat receive
Aleks Maric - $1,429,200
Devon Hardin - $5,200,000
Mike Miller - $5,715,360

Houston Rockets receive
Monty Myles - $10,350,000
Sergio Llull - $1,199,800
Derrick Byars - $398,762
Omer Asik - $667,417
San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st

Every single one of Jestor's mistakes went to the Houston Rockets, along with the Spurs' 2014 1st for the Houston player Miami coveted most in Maric, who gave the Heat a young, talented big, who had stellar games down the stretch for Miami. Miller, despite not being a favorite of his new organization, emerged as the starting SF and saw his shooting percentages go up with the switch. Hardin provided a major upgrade to the bench big situation.

But what really made this trade a triumph for the Heat was that the only new Rocket to get significant minutes was Asik, who finished the season with an abysmal 39.4% shooting rate.

All these deals and moves added up to a 44-38 season, a huge improvement on the 27 wins from last year. Miami fans can be happy once again that they have a good team.

The brightest spot may have been Miami's leading the league in fewest turnovers and steals allowed. Ball security is the hallmark of Jestorball, just as shooting accuracy and running and gunning is the trademark of Manuball and defense the calling card of the Pistons.

Projecting to the Offseason - Players on the Team
Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, and Aleks Maric are all virtual locks to stay. The front office loves those three players and won't part with them for anything. Anthony Morrow is too great a bargain to be moved easily, either.

As for the rest, Pau Gasol is likely to draw the most interest, but it's uncertain that he'll go, despite the constant rumors and the botched Boston trade that would have brought Emeka Okafor to Miami. Everyone else is available and given Jestor's proclivity for trading, we could see some changes.

For the impending free agents, Ricky Davis won't be back. Leo Lyons probably won't be, as he's angry about his decreased playing time. The Heat will almost certainly try to bring back Marcus Banks, but likely won't get into a major bidding war for him. The X-factor is Jon Brockman. They love his defense, rebounding, intelligence, discipline, work ethic and handling ability, but is that enough to overcome his terrible shooting?

Projecting the Offseason - The Draft
Miami holds picks 14, 29, and 55. Two of the players they've been projected to take in several mock drafts, Fresno State's Paul George and California's Theo Robertson, are mocked at 14 and 29, with Serbian Milan Macvan projected at 55.

Who the Heat take largely depends on what they do with Gasol. If they keep him, it's almost certain they'll go with a SG or SF at 14. Rumor has it the front office loves Donatas "Dirk v 2.0" Montiejunas and came away from the NCAA tournament absolutely thrilled with Jon Scheyer. The Heat were also one of the first ones to highlight Artsiom Parakhouski and are believed to be considering him as well as Gasol's heir apparent and as a deepening of their bench big situation.

Another possibility is Miami trading both 14 and 29 to move up in the draft to guarantee one of the swingmen they want. In addition to the names mentioned, Al-Farouq Aminu is believed to be high on the Heat's draft board, as is Greg Monroe, whose versatility, particularly his passing and handling abilities, mesh perfectly with Jestorball philosophy.

There's also been some talk that the Heat could deal one or both of their first round picks for a star player who could help them out right away at one of those swingman spots. Jestor has, after all, traditionally picked poorly in drafts and in free agency, and has done his best work via trading for established players.

It's believed that if the Heat keep all three picks, they'll draft some combination of a swingman and a big in the first round, and a pass-first point guard in the second round.

What's certain is that Miami won't trade down from #14. According to sources, the Heat feel they would lose too much value in talent relative to their needs if they dropped down.

***

Context Notes
Pretty much it's all here in the articles themselves. As it turns out, missing the playoffs my first full year in Miami would prove to have an interesting fallout effect... but more on that as we roll along here.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Good luck taking down Orlando and being a sacrificial lamb to one of the two Eastern juggernauts.

I know that is the extremely pessimistic viewpoint. Win or lose, sounds like you had a nice jump both in wins and overall franchise viability this season.

It's a realistic viewpoint, as at this point in the league's history, the conference balance was so skewed that the top 6 teams in the East were the top 6 teams in the entire league. Frustrations aside, my first full season was a definite success, IMO, just in terms of clearing out a roster that wasn't working well together at all and fashioning something much more in line with the vision I had for the team.

[Izulde]

Although Unlikely To Win, Heat Coach Deserves Mention

Potassium deficient NLL fans don't care who wins Coach of the Year

It has become one of the most ignored awards in the NLL trophy case. The Coach of the Year award seems an automatic handoff to Mike D'Antoni of the Pistons, or, this year, Eric Williams of the Cleveland Cavaliers. No GM voting takes place and nobody really pays attention.

But both these actions, even in a year that saw two 70 win teams for the first time in professional basketball history, would do a disservice to the job Eric Musselman did with the Miami.

Taking over for the fired Flip Saunders when the Heat were 5-10, Musselman led Miami to a 39-28 mark the rest of the way, including a brilliant 11 game winning streak after Pau Gasol broke his leg. Musselman also had to deal with constant personnel changes as a result of GM Jestor's quick trigger finger and proved unafraid of riding the hot hand, such as Steve Francis briefly becoming a 6th Man of the Year candidate during the improbable win streak and then turning to Marcus Banks once Francis started getting cold.

In fact, Miami should be in the playoffs today and Musselman deserves the credit for it. He dealt with injuries, trades, and other changes to forge the Heat from a likely mid-lottery team to a legitimate playoff franchise... and in the powerhouse East, that's no small feat.

Suns Surprise of the Season

Jiri Welsch's signing to a min-sal is just one of many of Suns GM Phil Nixon's most unsung moves

At the end of the day, Miami Heat GM Jestor couldn't quite justify the placement in the top 3. But with Suns GM Phil Nixon not mentioned in the early voting for GM of the Year, Jestor felt the Phoenix front office head deserved some recognition.

"This was a team a lot of people, including me, thought would probably be a late lottery team even in the weak West. But then they go out and make the playoffs, upset the heavily favored Timberwolves in the first round and are giving the Kings a hell of a fight in Round 2, even without Carlos Boozer. You don't have that kind of performance without a good GM", Jestor said.

Four of the most valuable moves that engineered Phoenix's turnaround:

1. Signing Jiri Welsch to a veteran minsal contract
Although Welsch was unhappy about his 21.4 minutes a game during the regular season, the 32 year old has proved his worth in the playoffs, posting a dazzling 18.7 points and 2 steals a game, helping pick up the offensive slack in the wake of Boozer's loss. Hit 40% of his 3 point shots in the regular season, 37% in the postseason thus far. Welsch is having his best postseason ever, and his best regular season since 2009 with the Pacers. He's been serious bang for buck.

2. Getting Darrell Arthur as part of the Joe Johnson blockbuster
Although Arthur played a reserve role during the regular season, he's also put on stellar outings since Boozer went down, averaging 19.3 points and 10 rebounds on 19/32 (59.4%) shooting in his three starts. At 22 years old and locked into a lengthy, but reasonable contract, he figures to be a cornerstone of the Suns for years to come.

3. Using the cap cleared from Johnson's contract to land Carlos Boozer
Without Boozer's ability to fight for rebounds and occasionally go off on scoring binges, as in Game 4, when he lead all scorers with 28 points, the Suns don't beat the Timberwolves. He was also an underrated part of Phoenix's regular season and, in his own way, proved just as valuable to the Suns as Johnson's scoring would have been. Boozer also did a fair job defensively on Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett in the opening round before breaking his nose.

4. Trading for Larry Hughes
Hughes led the Suns in scoring at 16.7 points and 2 steals per game and had his best season since 2010 with the Jazz. Although he's found himself in a reserve spot in the postseason, he's arguably been the most productive 10 minute a game player, averaging 6 points on 56.8% shooting, 66.7% from 3 point range, and with nary a free throw missed (6/6).

Projected Future
Nixon's moves have laid the foundation for the future, particularly his capture of Arthur. One images a lineup next season of:

PG ?
SG Larry Hughes/?
SF James Johnson
PF Carlos Boozer/Darrell Arthur
C Hamed Haddadi
6th Boozer/Arthur or Hughes

The Suns' biggest need is PG, but this draft class appears to be shallow at the 1. Phoenix has been shopping the 18th and Haddadi for a legitimate PG, but perhaps they might want to consider shopping Boozer instead. Johnson/Arthur/Haddadi is a young, talented frontcourt lineup, capable of dominating the league for years to come and Boozer plus the 18th for a PG would make more sense if they can land it.

Or perhaps they'll want to keep the 18th and select a young SG who would be an upgrade as Hughes' replacement/heir apparent over Brandon Roy. They could then use their MLE on a PG upgrade and will able to argue strongly for the PG/young SG/Johnson/Arthur/Haddadi as one of the West's top up and coming teams.

In any case, it promises to be an exciting offseason in the desert.

Trade Market Eerily Quiet In South Florida

Pau Gasol on the set of CSI:Miami

Trade rumors are percolating everywhere, including in Florida, where the Orlando Magic are awash in swap speculation, some even suggesting that the Magic Kingdom is using their considerable assets and making a strong push for the #2 overall pick to get either John Wall or Evan Turner to pair with DeMar Derozan.

But in South Beach, the phones are quiet and not much discussion is going on. The Heat did reportedly receive a very tempting offer for franchise face and 4th in MVP voting Chris Paul that would have had one of the league's best young players and a return to the 2014 draft as highlights, but Paul's trade restriction ensured restful nights for Heat GM Jestor.

Thus far, what few legal inquiries have come in have been about #14 and #29, but Miami remains steadfast in their refusal to part with either of those picks, the Heat still hoping to bundle the selections together to move up into the Top 10.

Sources say the team's shopped around for upgrades to their SG/SF position, including Seattle's Austin Daye , New Orleans's Martell Webster and Trevor Ariza, Indiana's Josh Smith, Utah's Patrick Ewing, Jr. and Washington's Shawn Marion, but so far nothing has materialized.

Nor has there been anything other than cursory interest in Pau Gasol, as teams are presently fixated on draft picks, youth, and clearing cap space for the upcoming free agency period.

"It's been a bit shocking that nobody wants Gasol", one NLL analyst said. "While the league has always been youth-obsessed, the Bulls and to a lesser extent, the Bobcats, showed this year what an offensive-minded team can do and Charlotte and Miami both illustrated the value of big men with good passing and handling skills."

One thing seems certain and that's if Gasol isn't traded before the draft, he'll stay in Miami. Where the Heat go with their two first round picks, if they don't trade up, is too dependent on whether or not Gasol is still on the team.

Four Possible Picks at #14

Could Donatas Motiejunas be the one?

Rumor has it that the front office really likes SF Donatas Motiejunas. Dubbed Dirk 2.0, the 7 footer's passing and handling skills are believed to be a perfect fit for Jestorball's sacrosanct principle of ball security, and he'd give Miami much-needed size at the 3 spot, presenting the Heat with a 7' SF, a 6'11 PF in Aleks Maric, and a 7' C in Gasol or vice versa for PF and C, depending on the matchup.


Or maybe even Alexey Shved?

Another player reportedly getting more and more traction in the Miami war room is PG Alexey Shved, widely considered the class's top point guard prospect. Scouts say he represents many of the elements required of a point guard in the classical Jestorball system and although the Heat have Paul and are fully intent on bringing Marcus Banks back in free agency, Shved could well be the best player available by #14 and excellent trade bait for PG hungry teams like the Phoenix Suns and the Detroit Pistons.


The Heat was the first team to publicly notice Artsiom Parakhouski

If Gasol is traded, Radford C Artsiom Parakhouski has been flying up the draft boards recently and the Miami Heat was the first team to notice him. He'd likely be the selection here should Gasol go elsewhere and another big man doesn't come back.


Another big man possibility is Baylor's Ekpe Udoh

Although he hasn't gotten much attention, Baylor big Ekpe Udoh is another possibility at #14. Sources say the Heat really like what they initially saw of him and they're bringing him in for a private workout to see if he can be the kind of player who'd fit in well alongside Maric.

Four Possible Picks If The Heat Move Up To The Top 10


Speculation has it SF Al Farouq-Aminu is very high on the Heat's board

According to insider sources, Heat GM Jestor raved about Farouq-Aminu's game after the scouting reports came back. He's believed to be #1 on Miami's draft board behind the obvious trio of John Wall, Evan Turner, and Greg Monroe, the latter a textbook example of a Jestorball player. But only Farouq-Aminu figures to possibly slip into the range the Heat might be able to trade up to and that's only because of his rawness. Probably not the best selection for a Heat team that doesn't have its 2014 1st, however.


The fastest riser of them all, Jon Scheyer

Another fundamental element of Jestorball philosophy is acquiring players who have proven themselves in the pressure of postseason play. There's no better example than Duke's SG Jon Scheyer, who lit up the NCAA tournament en route to the Blue Devil's national championship. Under this scenario, Scheyer plays SG and Daequan Cook, who has proven capable of handling the 3 before, slides to SF. It also means a full-bore, offensively oriented Miami team.


SG James Anderson also had a fine tournament

And then there's Oklahoma State's James Anderson, who played stellar as well in leading his Cowboys to a deeper tournament run than anyone could have expected. His game's more well-rounded and he'd probably be a better fit for Jestorball. It's well-known the New Jersey Nets crave Anderson, so the Heat moving up into the Top 10 could mean Miami sniping Brooklyn's favorite target just before the 11th pick rolls around.


The Gasol-less Top 10 pick, Hassan Whiteside

Finally, Marshall's big man Hassan Whiteside, who would almost certainly be the selection if the Heat are without Pau Gasol, in the Top 10, and without a fitting replacement in the starting lineup.

Thus, while things may be quiet now, there's still potential for explosive movement as the offseason goes on and the draft nears.

***

Context Notes
You'll see articles on other teams in the league every once in a while. As one of my proteges remarked when I met him and another GM currently in the league at the Trump a couple weeks ago, I love storylines and tipping my hat to interesting ones like this shocker Suns side.

I gleed like a dork when I saw the Pau Gasol episode a few months ago during my CSI: Miami binge (I haven't finished the series yet, by the way. Still a couple more seasons to go). It was just so cool seeing Pau there, even if it was a typical cameo episode in many respects.

The 2014 draft class, which is the one being referenced here, was considered in the pre-draft hype to be the single best class in NLL history. So in that sense, missing the playoffs turned out to be a blessing in disguise. There were a ton of players I loved in this draft, as you can see from the short profiles of possible selections.

It'll be a few posts before we get to the draft itself, though. Offseasons on a team I run are rarely dull or inactive.

[Izulde]

Some Obvious Picks, Some Not

Mr. Obvious MVP himself, Chris Paul

MVP
Chris Paul
Finished 4th in league-wide MVP of the Year voting behind Lebron James, Mike Conley, Jr., and Dwayne Wade. 23.2 points ranked 2nd in the league behind Wade and 1.8 steals tied for 10th with Kevin Durant and Gilbert Arenas. Also averaged 6.8 assists and 3.8 rebounds, with 4.1 A/TO ratio. Shot 46.3% from the floor, 39.9% from 3 point range. Most telling MVP note: The team lost almost every game he was out with injury.

Most Improved
Daequan Cook
Received a third place vote for Most Improved Player in the league. Averaged career-high 10.6 points and 1.3 steals with additional personal bests in FG shooting (48.8%) and three-point accuracy (41.2%). Rated highly by GM Jestor in the Paul offseason trade and proved his worth in his first season as a full-time starter.

Rookie of the Year
Milovan Rakovic
A by default award, as Sergio Llull and Derrick Byars were dealt to Houston. 2.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 47.6% shooting in 11.2 minutes in 43 appearances. Will never be anything more than an end of bench player.

Best Newcomer
Aleks Maric
Almost the entire team was new, as Jestor engaged in a virtually complete roster turnover, but the most valuable in-season acquisition was Maric, who showed ability to play both post spots and led the Heat to its only Paul-less triumph. More importantly, the second year big man gives Miami much-needed youth down low and will be a #2 or #3 option for years to come.

Surprise Gem of the Year
Marcus Banks
Although Ricky Davis was the biggest name in the swap with the Los Angeles Clippers, it was actually Banks who Jestor wanted most. The minsal veteran posted a team-high 4.4 A/TO ratio and improved his shooting percentages across the board and had arguably his best season. He also supplanted Steve Francis, another candidate for this award, who was also in a 6th Man of the Year possibility before Banks' arrival.

Sources Say Heat Won't Stay At #14

What sort of wizardry will devilish Heat GM Jestor come up with next?

According to a source speaking on condition of anonymity and fear of being turned into a new, the chances of the Miami Heat picking at #14 in the upcoming draft is, "slim and none, and we all know what happened to slim."

Speculation has it that Heat GM Jestor in deep in discussions with several teams about the selection, including a possible move up into the Top 10, or a trade for a player who will benefit the playoff and possible championship team more than a raw draft pick would.

It's also believed Miami is now opening to move the 14th or the 29th pick separately, provided the right situation or player becomes available. In fact, the insider said the current most fruitful conversation involves the 14th overall pick and a key player being sent for a star who will position the Heat to be even stronger than their late-season, yet just shy surge indicates they'll be heading into next year.

Several of the conversations have involved one team or another getting involved in the sign and trade game, but Miami is taking a much more careful route in that direction after last offseason's infamous Monty Myles debacle, in which Jestor loudly claimed that Myles had "All-Star, if not franchise potential."

In other news, interest is sparking in Pau Gasol, but thus far it appears as though the Heat are worlds apart from finding the right fit for trading partner and return. A few within the organization say it's becoming more and more likely that the Spaniard, who carries a declining contract over the next few seasons, will stay in South Florida.

The whispers of the Heat being more open to draft pick trading, rather than a simple packaging of 14 and 29 to move up into the Top 10, should open up more discussions and negotiations, making it even more likely the 14th pick will not rest in Miami in the end. One thing seems clear, however, and that's the Heat still declining to trade down, unless it involves a future first, in 2014 or 2015. What seems far more likely is Miami trading up or out of the 14th spot.

Surprises Galore in Store

Madcap Mario, our fearless mocker

I've been hearing some crazy scuttlebutt that says Cleveland's gone #2, Orlando's going to #4 and Houston's going to #9. I don't know if it's true or not, but I'm Madman Mario, so I'm going to say it is true and do my mock that way. If you don't like it, go shove up a pipe up your arse, you prissy princess pussy!

1. PG John Wall - Kentucky - Dallas Mavericks
This one's a certainty. Wall's been golden all along and crazy good in the pre-draft camps. Nick Calathes and Manatas Kalnietis are both pass-first points, so my bet is Wall starts, Calathes is the backup, and the Mavericks spin Kalnietis into something or stash him as a third guard.

2. F Patrick Patterson - Kentucky - Cleveland Cavaliers
What do you get the team who has everything at this spot? A versatile forward who can plug in at SF and PF. The Cavs have swingmen galore and a good number of centers, but what would really help their depth is a SF/PF youngster who could also be Richard Jefferson's heir.

3. PF Ed Davis - North Carolina - Utah Jazz
Forget all the stuff you've heard about the Jazz taking Evan Turner if he falls this far. The Jazz need a legitimate big man in the worst way and some consider Davis the highest-ceiling big in the draft. For a team that's putting a 6'8 SF and a 6'10 PF at the 4 and 5 spots, Davis is a welcome change.

4. SG Evan Turner - Ohio State - Orlando Magic
Orlando don't care about players who have crappy camps and Turner, who was figuring to be #1 or #2 all along, will be a perfect fit for Demar DeRozan's running mate. Kobe Bryant to the Magic Kingdom blocks this, you say? Pish. Bryant and DeRozan to run the show the next year or two, Turner and DeRozan for years after.

5. PF Greg Monroe - Georgetown - Indiana Pacers
I hear the Pacers were interested in Davis, Monroe, and DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins has a lot of questions about him, so I'm betting he's the one that got knocked out after private workouts. Monroe's passing game plus that of Luke Nevill's, make this Pacers team a very interesting to watch, especially if they dump the Walter Sharpe mistake and get rid of the overrated Tyreke Evans.

6. SF Wesley Johnson - Syracuse - Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers love defense, but they also need somebody to score the ball outside of ancient Gilbert Arenas and the ordinary on D Marcus Williams. Enter the Johnson, who can give Los Angeles a stellar 1-2-3 attack, with 2 and 3 set for the future while they work on the other pieces.

7. SF Al-Farouq Aminu - Wake Forest - Oklahoma City Thunder
Things are starting to come together in OKC but they need to re-sign PG Shaun Livingston and they need, more than anything, legitimate wing players who shoot accurately from the outside, rather than their collection of castoffs. Johnson would have been the perfect fit for their needs, but they'll settle for taking a raw defensive specialist in Aminu.

8. C Demarcus Cousins - Kentucky - Toronto Raptors
The one odd piece in the Raptors' youth movement is PF, with Zach Randolph. Here's Cousins to be his heir apparent. The Raptors could give a damn about certain flaws; they're confident in their ability to make the most of players that others overlook. If they can make something of Cousins, this could be the steal of the draft.

9. C Hassan Whiteside - Marshall - Houston Rockets
The Rockets need help pretty much everywhere, but by grabbing Whiteside here they salvage some of the burn of missing out on the most noteworthy bigs they could have had at #2, like Davis. Whiteside alongside Ante Tomic is a start, but only a start, to what will be a long and grueling rebuilding project.

10. SG James Anderson - Oklahoma State - Dallas Mavericks
Anderson stormed his way up the charts with a sensational NCAA tournament and the Mavericks, who need scorers, are delighted he falls this far. Wall and Anderson will make a deadly pairing in the backcourt for years to come.

11. SF Quincy Pondexter - Washington - New Jersey Nets
The Nets are pissed they get cockblocked out of JA by a single pick, but they'll settle for Pondexter, their second choice, even though what they really need to do to be successful is to stop tanking by doing obvious stuff like starting Andrea Bargnani at SG. Yeah, I know.

12. SF Donatas Motiejunas - Golden State Warriors
Golden State imploded last year, finishing in the lottery even in the weak West. Worse still, they lost 7 out of their last 8 games. Their youngest player of any real value is 28, so this is an old team. The Warriors need to blow the team up and a good way of rebuilding is by adding Moteijunas, who while raw, has incredible potential and is already a terrific passer and handler.

13. SG Aubrey Coleman - Houston - Washington Wizards
Basically, the Wizards are at a crossroads. But no matter what direction they go in after years of disappointing results, they need an accurate outside shooter, and Coleman looks like he could fit the bill perfectly, as well as brace against the inevitable crash of Wally Szczerbiak. He'll fit in beautifully with either a going for it or a rebuild.

14. SF Paul George - Fresno State - Miami Heat
The Heat are known to be looking for a legitimate SF, as they're not thrilled with Mike Miller. George has been predicted for Miami for quite some time now and his defensive promise and reported disinclination to take shots would allow for Chris Paul, Aleks Maric, and Pau Gasol to be the Big Three on offense.

15. C Artsiom Parakhouski - Radford - San Antonio Spurs
Another mocked pick and one that makes sense for San Antonio. He's considered by some to be the best of the remaining bigs, and the sooner the Spurs get 31 year old Reggie Evans out of there with a younger upgrade, the better. Parakhouski is that upgrade.

***

Context Notes
Another small recap article, somewhat generic trade chatter article that I can't remember now what all trade talks I had going on with different people, and a Top 15 mock draft to give you an idea of where how I thought it might shake.

Of course, if I kept 14 and Parakhouski got to me, there was no way in hell he was going any further. I loved what I saw of him in scouting and from what I recall, he had a decent draft camp too.

Draft camps no longer exist in NLL, by the way. That was a mgtr81 innovation which ended with his retirement as rookie head, starting with last year's class.

We've revived it in GAH, though, for the past handful of drafts.. I believe the Kevin McHale class was the first one to get a draft camp thanks to Manu being open to us starting it again. We've also changed the format - rather than one of us running it and doing the writeups for it, we rotate it among the different GMs in the league. Works beautifully, in my opinion. Shares the workload and gets GMs more interested in following along, as every GM has their own writing style and way of presenting information.

Oh, and Mad* Mario isn't a recurring character. Just a one off for this mock.

[Izulde]

Jestor Outraged At Influx of Southeast Talent; Team Narrows Draft Dreams

This poor iPhone found itself hurled across the room and damaged after news came through of the trades

"That's the worst god damned trade in the history of the (expletive) NLL! (Expletive) (Expletive) (Expletive) (Expletive) fool GMs in the West! No wonder the (expletive) West gets its (expletive) ass kicked every damned year!"

The above was an excerpt leaked to us by a confidential informant, who said they witnessed Miami Heat GM Jestor erupt into a hurricane of fury upon hearing of the Jrue Holiday and Tadija "Dragon" Dragicevic trade between the Charlotte Bobcats and the Denver Nuggets.

In no uncertain terms, Jestor blasted Denver in the deal, calling it an outrage as he flung his iPhone across the room, where it hit the wall and cracked. It was yet another dose of bad news for the Miami Heat, as the Bobcats not only got a steal in trading the young, but projected to be no more than league average Holiday for an equally young, but much more talented forward in Dragicevic, but the Orlando Magic traded a package of picks to land Knicks legend Kobe Bryant.

The sudden rush of talent in the Southeast is making Miami's task of getting to the playoffs next season far more difficult and the deals have begun shifting the balance of power, suggesting that Orlando and Charlotte could be the ones fighting for the Southeast crown, with Miami lagging behind and fighting for an 8 seed, and the Wizards in their rebuild phase after years of underachievement.

More significantly, it appears that the Heat might well be staying put, going with the core that just missed the playoffs last year when they should have been in, using their draft picks and the MLE to strengthen the team.

Rumored Top 5 Choices At #14
None of the people we talked to had any idea where the Heat might go at #29, but all of them had opinions on #14 and we came up with a consensus Top 5 list of who the Heat might take.

In no particular order:


SF Donatas Motiejunas
Miami's been talking about him all offseason long and Dirk 2.0 would be an immediate starter at SF, giving the Heat one of the tallest 3-5 frontcourts in the league. May or may not be there at 14, although many predict he will still be there at the end of the lottery.


C Ekpe Udoh
Baylor big would be Pau Gasol's heir apparent and likely take over for Devon Hardin as the Heat's top big man off the bench. Given the Heat's injury problems with Gasol last year, taking a big at 14, even if they keep Gasol as seems likely, makes a lot of sense. Udoh is the safest pick, based on the scouting the Heat's done of the big men in this draft. Almost certain to be there at 14.


SF Paul George
Doesn't have the sizzling upside of Dirk 2.0, especially on the offensive end, but he's a shutdown defender waiting to happen, and on a Miami team that doesn't have any lockdown defenders, with perhaps the exception of Chris Paul, George could be the glue guy and new SF starter they need. A lock to be there at 14, as virtually no one seems to have talked about him. He could even slide down into the 20s, should the Heat pass on him, something that never would happened before the Bulls and Bobcats showed what offense-engineered teams could do, and before the Blazers flamed out due to going all-defense.


PG Willie Warren
The front office fell in love with him in scouting, so much so that if he's there at 14, he's a strong candidate to have his name called. Although listed as a point guard, Warren seems to be much more in the mold of a combo guard and if he's taken, Miami's likely to run a lineup of Chris Paul/Warren/Daequan Cook/Aleks Maric/Gasol, unless they get a true starting SF in free agency with their MLE. In fact, Jestor allegedly called Warren's game "the most beautiful thing I've seen since Adriana Lima". As the recent Spurs article indicates, Warren is shooting up the draft boards from his 20s placement and is now almost certain to go in the lottery.


PG Alexey Shved
If Warren is the perfect combo guard in the Heat's eyes, then Shved is the perfect floor general. It's a move that doesn't make sense to a lot of people, since Miami already has Paul and have vowed to bring back Marcus Banks in free agency, but drafting the class's best pass-first PG wouldn't be a bad thing from a bargaining chip perspective. It's also worth noting that the Heat only won once when Paul struggled with injuries throughout the season, in part because they lacked a starting-calibre distributor. Shved can be that guy, and right now.

Edit: This does not, of course, include players who may fall, or a rumored move by Miami up into the Top 10.

Possible Deal Could Signal Heat Going Big At #14

Could Devon Hardin be playing elsewhere by the end of the draft?

There's growing speculation that the Miami Heat could trade C Devon Hardin. From reports, the Heat have been talking to several teams about the 27 year old to be big man who is also a $5.2 million expiring contract.

If a trade materializes, it likely signals Miami taking a big man, such as Baylor's Epke Udoh or Radford's Artsiom Parakhouski with the 14th overall pick.

Context Notes
Draft gets revealed next post, and I may try something a little different for that one rather than just post the article and have the context notes after that.

This was a very stressful offseason. The Magic are exceptional at making trades and the Bobcats have had strong GMs ever since I've been on the league (more on the changeover that eventually happened later). So between us, Orlando, and Charlotte, you had three stellar GMs all in the Southeast.

Washington had a long-time GM who could put together teams that looked great on paper, but failed to deliver almost every single season. Atlanta used to be the class of the division, but are really struggling right now with a rebuild process a GM who isn't able to be as active as he'd like to be.

[Cap Ologist]

Enjoying it. We have a lot of similarities in what we look for in players, but differ greatly on how we put teams together. I'm big into drafting and developing players while barely using free agency/trades. Great that there's multiple ways to build teams.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Cap Ologist

Enjoying it. We have a lot of similarities in what we look for in players, but differ greatly on how we put teams together. I'm big into drafting and developing players while barely using free agency/trades. Great that there's multiple ways to build teams.

Thanks.

In theory, I love drafting and developing players, but I love trading so much that it ends up being the default way I construct my teams. I hate, hate, -hate- free agency. I hate it with player agents and I hate it with the in-game system. The only time I usually spend a lot in FA is if I'm splashing the cash to re-sign my own guys who I know have worked in my system. I'm -extremely- risk-adverse with free agency.