Werewolf XXV: A long time ago...game over, Sith win,full role listing at 2030

[hoopsguy]

With the information that we have right now I think the worst voting record would be two dead Jedi and Ardent (given that all but Cartman voted Dubb/Ardent).

Here are the people with that profile:
2. KWhit - Superman, Lathum, Ardent
5. TazFTW - Superman, Lathum, Ardent
17. Ardent - Superman, Lathum, Ardent

Given that Ardent voted for himself, the only way I see that making sense is if they have the same role, were able to PM, and agreed that he would lay down at the end to protect Dubb. Dubb walks away trusted when Ardent shows up as evil character.

I strongly suspect I'm thinking too hard for this scenario, which leaves me with the other two candidates: the much discussed Taz and KWhit.

[pennywisesb]

Wow Hoops, you never cease to amaze me with your analysis.

Desnudo has me seriously doubting my suspicions at this point so I think I'll lay off the Hoops V. Barkeep vote.

I agree that the worst voting record would probably be 2 dead Jedis plus Ardent. I think with AE being one of the main contributors to Dubb going down, that this voting pattern is almost akin to voting for 3 Jedis. My vote today will probably be between TazFTW and KWhit. I want to hear their sides before voting though.

[kingfc22]

Ok, today is the first time I have actually read this thread. Sorry for not contributing earlier. Hoops I agree with your analysis so far. I think Taz or KWhit is likely to be a Sith.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Ok, today is the first time I have actually read this thread. Sorry for not contributing earlier.

[TazFTW]

Sorry KWhit, I have no evidence as to whether you are a Sith or not, but it looks like it is being arranged to be me vs you.

VOTE KWhit

[Grammaticus]

I think voting records are valuable and a good resource to use. I do not think assessing by who voted for the most “known” jedi versus bad guys pans out though. At least not by itself. Without a circle of trust or something else to support it is just one tool.

The only people that really know who is good and who is bad at the start are Sith. Then as the game progresses, some specialty roles can start to hit on who is good and bad. Until you know who they are and then review their record, it is tough. I would say a Sith has the best chance to have a cleaner record at this point, as they know who to go for and who not.

Maybe some of them laid off the horses and I’m thinking they spread votes around as well. I don’t buy the who voted for the most confirmed Jedi routine. Hitting Taz because he lays low may be a good reason, but not for me at this point. I’m willing to bet one of the two between Hoops and Barkeep are Sith. I am feeling pretty good about Ardent, I’m in the middle or have no read on Barkeep. Hoops seems to be the most suspicious. I think he has made a lot of posts that are circular in their logic and yield little, but sound like a lot of input. Much like Ardent’s BS post in the HP game where he said he did hours of research and posted a bunch of re-paste’s and said Coder was shaky or something like that. So, I will go with my vote

VOTE HOOPS

About to sign off and I’m not sure when I will be back on, so I want to get my vote in. If I get back and see something else developing I will try to commit my vote to a horse in the race.

[Qwikshot]

Anyone think it funny that for all the posting that Jeebs does, that he's been really quiet in this thread?

I'm going to lay off Hoops vs Ardent vs Barkeep.

I think my voting record speaks for itself, I may not be the most sane player, but I at least tried hard not to implicate or kill a Jedi (besides sacrificing myself).

so I'm going with AE's vote...but should Taz be innocent, I will be the first to be voting for AE.

Vote Taz

[TazFTW]

Trust: Gramm

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

so I'm going with AE's vote...but should Taz be innocent, I will be the first to be voting for AE.

Prepare to vote AE then.

[cartman]

I'm gonna stick with the vote I've had all along.

Vote: Qwikshot

[Barkeep49]

I think there might have been more to schmidty then has been said so far. I get this from the line

I am quite sure that Dubb began our journey as a Jedi, yet was corrupted by the dishonorable Sith somewhere along the way. We must guard ourselves against this evil, but also resist fear and hatred, as they will only distract us and lead us to the dark side.

Now I thought long and hard about this post and I'm guessing the Sith did too. It clearly could be innocent, in that we all started this journey as Jedi, but I'm guessing it was a disguised message. I think Schmidty was saying that Dubb was converted during the course of our game.

I have to go back and really read what has been said against Taz, but I'd just like to say that Hoops has made more lists and done zero real actions today. Meaningless lists are once again the hallmark of wolves...

[pennywisesb]

Well, between Taz and KWhit, I'm going to cast my vote to KWhit. Usually he's a good contributor in these WW games but he's played this one pretty low key (compared to past games) which seems like a technique a wolf could possibly employ to stay under the radar. His voting record is pretty bad as well. So I'm gonna
Vote KWhit

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, I really think I've made enough excuses for not voting for you up until now.

If you are a Jedi, then I really think you have have allowed yourself to be badly misdirected and brought this one on yourself.

VOTE BARKEEP49

[SackAttack]

I don't believe ardent is Sith. I don't believe Qwikshot is either, at this point. They've both had questionable moments, but I don't see the percentage in their plays if they're Sith, as I've seen too many instances in the past where the self-vote was a quick way to get lynched.

The fact that they're both voting for Taz, combined with Taz's voting record, makes me think they might be on to something.

Vote TazFTW

[Barkeep49]

Hoops I expected an opus. I didn't even get a stanza. When I voted for you I gave examples. I would ask for the same.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by cartman

I'm gonna stick with the vote I've had all along.

Vote: Qwikshot

Agreed.

VOTE QWIKSHOT

[Desnudo]

I feel myself siding with Barkeep in the argument to this point if I had to choose between the two. The question to me is, is Hoops suspicious enough to earn a vote or are there better candidates out there? As was mentioned, where happened to Jeeber?

[Barkeep49]

Well Qwik has become more and more suspicous to me and I am very glad to see this as the movement rather then myself or taz; perhaps even Hoops. I still think Qwik is a Jedi, but I agree that all too much attention has been paid to 4 of us when there is a larger Sith community to be worried about.

[Desnudo]

God my grammar has gone to hell since I started playing this game.

[Barkeep49]

Further I have played a game where we left "senior" players alone and went for quieter ones. That game has scary parallels in terms of how little danger the wolves ever faced. I think looking at the quiet ones, such as king who hasn't read the thread might be the way to go.

I think I'm going to go look at king's posts. If he seems well informed despite never having read the thread it seems like we should be looking at him as a Sith.

But one thing that's been bothering me: Ardent should not be cleared. As I read it, it's possible that Dubb knew who the Sith were, but it's equally as likely that he did not and was really trying to acomplish some other mean, even perhaps getting lynched himself, by going after Ardent. And even if dubb did know who the sith were I can ENTIRELY see him pulling a fast one by either getting himself or ardent cleared.

I want to go in a different direction but there have been several games where two wolves/evils have been on the block and when one gets killed and found it, it gives too much leeway to the other. The most famous example I can think of is when Ardent duked it away from one werewolf to another and was declared a hero in the Spawn game.

[hoopsguy]

Sure, if you want more logic behind it then here you go. Some of these I believe more than others, but these are notes that I have from earlier and have modified since you asked the question:

1.) You have pressed against me on Day 2, Day 3, Day 4
2.) You vote for Qwikshot on Day 1, then go after me for doing the same thing on Day 2 when there were more compelling reasons to do so at that time
3.) You call me out for putting some thought into the game (lists) rather than just following a herd, saying that this is 'wolflike'
4.) I can reach on the "don't scan me" comment from earlier, but never really wanted to because I think it is a neutral comment
5.) You were the first-mover on Lathum on Day 1 (known Jedi, Post #144), even though your vote didn't end there. You moved it to Qwik when he self-voted, making it an easy excuse if he was lynched as a Jedi.
6.) You never put in a post in the role-call indicating you were a Jedi.
7.) You have attacked me for suggesting that the game rules might actually follow Star Wars rules in terms of the number of opponents we would be facing, saying that Saldana suggested this would be a 'simple game'
8.) Post #163 is the first time you suggest your role, only it isn't Jedi. It is that you are not Sith. Hmm, Dubb technically was not Sith
9.) You ask me to do post summaries (#224) and then attack me for posting lists
10.) You suggest that you are much better at finding innocents than guilty, but then decide to jeopardize me (who I consider a valuable asset to the Jedi) with your attacks over the last 3 days.
11.) Earlier in the thread both Barkeep and Stkelly have expressed concern about you. Those are two of the names on my initial trust list from today (yes, another list)
12.) Your posts about voting records discouraging that line of thought on Day 3 and then coming in now after being gone all day when the topic is once again being discussed. It seems like you are going out of your way to discourage this train of thought even though several others think that this is a logical way to approach the game.
13.) Post #494 you say that you think a blessed came into play when the description read much more like the bodyguard.
14.) I didn't think your list of reasons for me in Post #511 was well thought-out. Which makes sense when you have to fabricate reasons for me as a Sith. Still, with as much as I post I would expect a little better effort.
15.) You never, ever answer my questions about the motivations of a Sith to be a late-voter in the Qwikshot race (Post #522, although I raised this point multiple times on Day 2 as well)

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The most famous example I can think of is when Ardent duked it away from one werewolf to another and was declared a hero in the Spawn game.

Wasnt ardent the captain, and we killed him after he did duke it to a villager...and he turned up good...??

[hoopsguy]

Vote count as of Post #872:
Taz - Ardent (815), Qwikshot (857), SackAttack (864)
KWhit - Taz (855), Pennywiseb (862)
Hoopsguy - Grammaticus (856)
Qwikshot - Cartman (860), mckerney (866)
Barkeep - Hoopsguy (863)

[Barkeep49]

I am a Jedi. I am not a sith. I am not an auxulliary evil. I am a Jedi and only a Jedi. Frankly I think stating that is one of the most over rated things in all of werewolf. Without some sort of role that can test it, why even go through the motion? I tried to use the threat of an empath in the Demons and Elementals game and it came up with Taz, a good guy. I don't see what else can be done with that. Any other statements you would like me to make regarding my complete and total innocence I would be happy to do.

Let me look at some of your other posts, such as my supposed failure to answer questions in 522 before further responding

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Wasnt ardent the captain, and we killed him after he did duke it to a villager...and he turned up good...??

No Ardent changed it again the following night and it came up an innocent and then people decided to kill ardent.

[Barkeep49]

First let me express my frustration with the Maximum Football thread (of which I still have 18 pages to read) with my ability to quickly find WW related posts.

So king has contributed nothing of substance the whole game. This is bad if only because we get zero information from him; sort of like how people vote for no shows on D1.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

No Ardent changed it again the following night and it came up an innocent and then people decided to kill ardent.

I remember it differently...oh well

[TazFTW]

Self Preservation.

UNVOTE KWHIT
VOTE QWIKSHOT

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Further I have played a game where we left "senior" players alone and went for quieter ones. That game has scary parallels in terms of how little danger the wolves ever faced. I think looking at the quiet ones, such as king who hasn't read the thread might be the way to go.

I think I'm going to go look at king's posts. If he seems well informed despite never having read the thread it seems like we should be looking at him as a Sith.

But one thing that's been bothering me: Ardent should not be cleared. As I read it, it's possible that Dubb knew who the Sith were, but it's equally as likely that he did not and was really trying to acomplish some other mean, even perhaps getting lynched himself, by going after Ardent. And even if dubb did know who the sith were I can ENTIRELY see him pulling a fast one by either getting himself or ardent cleared.

I want to go in a different direction but there have been several games where two wolves/evils have been on the block and when one gets killed and found it, it gives too much leeway to the other. The most famous example I can think of is when Ardent duked it away from one werewolf to another and was declared a hero in the Spawn game.

I think it's likely no more than one Sith is part of the quiet group. The rest are either part of the vocals or the ones posting just enough for people to be aware of them. So yes, we shouldn't just go down the path of eliminating quiet ones.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops I ignored your question of

Barkeep, do you think that a Sith would have moved their votes off of Qwikshot over to Superman=#54 on Day 1 if they were both Jedi? What was in it for them with that move?

Because it became irrelevant to where I eventually went with looking at voting patterns as an indication of wolfishness. I think it's entirely possible for wolfs to do just about anything on D1 as people are more willing to grant a flier on that one then on any other day. Some of the early switches might have thought they were going to be safe voting for someone who would finish in 2nd only to have that person then go on and win.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, I think the role call stuff is generally junk as well. If I believed all of the reasons that are listed there, I would have voted for you yesterday. As I've stated a few times, I am not close to convinced that you are Sith. But with that in mind, why do you insist on coming after me if you are anything but? If there is a seer out there they would have looked at me by now at your insistence in these threads and because of a general fear of the "vet player". So for you to really think that I'm Sith must mean that you think Lathum was the seer and is now lost to us?

[Barkeep49]

Ok let's look at them one by one.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

1.) You have pressed against me on Day 2, Day 3, Day 4

I pressed against you Night 2, Day 3, and Day 4. You were not really on my bad guy radar until late Day 2. Anyhow this is fair enough and I find no true fault with you holding it against me. Though I would point out that I always do things for a reason as a wolf and if I'm going bold against you what is my alterior motive?

2.) You vote for Qwikshot on Day 1, then go after me for doing the same thing on Day 2 when there were more compelling reasons to do so at that time

I think there were far more compelling reasons not to as well. It's entirely fair to criticise someone for voting the way you did on a different day. Information changes, the game is a different place. I think this is weak.

3.) You call me out for putting some thought into the game (lists) rather than just following a herd, saying that this is 'wolflike'

I have no problem with you putting thought into the game. Desnudo, for instance, is clearly putitng thought into this game. But it's your failure of the lists to either have any definitive conclusions, or for you to act on them, that I am criticising. Heck except your personal trust list I haven't even appeared on them and yet there you are voting for me.

4.) I can reach on the "don't scan me" comment from earlier, but never really wanted to because I think it is a neutral comment

It's not a neutral comment. It's a comment saying the seer shouldn't waste his time on me, but I don't really quibble with this analysis either.

5.) You were the first-mover on Lathum on Day 1 (known Jedi, Post #144), even though your vote didn't end there. You moved it to Qwik when he self-voted, making it an easy excuse if he was lynched as a Jedi.

I thought Lathum was suspicous from the get go. Hence I returned to my #1 suspect on Day 2. Obviously I wasn't the only one to find his suspicious as he got lynched. I was wrong about him no question about it.

6.) You never put in a post in the role-call indicating you were a Jedi.

Answered earlier. Truly a trumped up charge if there ever was one.

7.) You have attacked me for suggesting that the game rules might actually follow Star Wars rules in terms of the number of opponents we would be facing, saying that Saldana suggested this would be a 'simple game'

I take the GM at his word; he says a simple game, so I'm not going to go looking for complex Sith conversion mechanisms.

8.) Post #163 is the first time you suggest your role, only it isn't Jedi. It is that you are not Sith. Hmm, Dubb technically was not Sith

See 7. Way to make 1 trumped up charge into two things on your list.

9.) You ask me to do post summaries (#224) and then attack me for posting lists

That was acutally a probe request because I know for a fact that you've slanted those lists in the past to great success; your reaction was a neutral one in my book.

10.) You suggest that you are much better at finding innocents than guilty, but then decide to jeopardize me (who I consider a valuable asset to the Jedi) with your attacks over the last 3 days.

Still don't think you seem overwhelmingly Jedish. Since this is basically an assertion that you are Jedi I have no real response, nor could there be one.

11.) Earlier in the thread both Barkeep and Stkelly have expressed concern about you. Those are two of the names on my initial trust list from today (yes, another list)

Everyone's name gets tossed about as suspicious by someone. But I understand this at least.

12.) Your posts about voting records discouraging that line of thought on Day 3 and then coming in now after being gone all day when the topic is once again being discussed. It seems like you are going out of your way to discourage this train of thought even though several others think that this is a logical way to approach the game.

If you're talking about Days 1 and 2 voting for villagers of being an indicator of being a wolf it doesn't matter if others feel it's logical to me when I have statistical evidence. What is intutive is not always correct and so I do the best I can to base what I can in games on facts. I stand by my study though I do not believe I have specifically called out any for looking at those. I disagree but do understand it's initutive, but apparently incorrect, appeal.

13.) Post #494 you say that you think a blessed came into play when the description read much more like the bodyguard.

Yes because only 1 person was being faught. If it was the BG a second person could have been involved in the description. I am not the only one who thought that, I believe Desnudo did as well.

14.) I didn't think your list of reasons for me in Post #511 was well thought-out. Which makes sense when you have to fabricate reasons for me as a Sith. Still, with as much as I post I would expect a little better effort.

I said it was a gut level feeling. I also didn't pad my list with nonsense

15.) You never, ever answer my questions about the motivations of a Sith to be a late-voter in the Qwikshot race (Post #522, although I raised this point multiple times on Day 2 as well)

Done now.

So taking a look at the list I see several stretches with only a couple of solid charges. I hope my response mitigates your concern.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, I think the role call stuff is generally junk as well. If I believed all of the reasons that are listed there, I would have voted for you yesterday. As I've stated a few times, I am not close to convinced that you are Sith. But with that in mind, why do you insist on coming after me if you are anything but? If there is a seer out there they would have looked at me by now at your insistence in these threads and because of a general fear of the "vet player". So for you to really think that I'm Sith must mean that you think Lathum was the seer and is now lost to us?

Enitrely possible Lathum was the seer. I also suggest Schmidty as a seer. Could also be a quiet one. Frankly we'll never really know who the seer is 100% until after the game which flat out sucks for us.

[Barkeep49]

So I am going to be secretly rooting for Qwik to be lynched, but I personally refuse to vote for someone who I believe to be a Jedi. Therefore with only one other viable target today I

Vote Taz

I will be gone until after lynch.

[Poli]

I'm swallowed in work and research papers!!! GAHH!!

I'm seriously considering paying some place to write that 10 page paper on the gas/affect on industry thing. I can't find much on the topic, and it's seriously stressing me out.

That would leave me with two other assignments and the autobiography.

I'm going to go over to the Warren Newport Public Library, which I hear is a good one for the area, and buy the research librarian lunch if she proves helpful. If she doesn't, I'll buy myself lunch and a paper I think.

[hoopsguy]

I'm curious if someone ever does read a response like this and says, "Wow, what was I thinking? I was way wrong about him".

That said, I'm still trying to come up with reasons to keep you around.

UNVOTE BARKEEP49

I'm out for a little while, but will get my vote in sufficiently before deadline.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I had not seen that you voted Taz when I revoked the vote, for whatever that is worth.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, I really think I've made enough excuses for not voting for you up until now.

If you are a Jedi, then I really think you have have allowed yourself to be badly misdirected and brought this one on yourself.

VOTE BARKEEP49

Hoops, why did you setup a Kwik / Taz showdown, then vote for Barkeep?

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Sure, if you want more logic behind it then here you go. Some of these I believe more than others, but these are notes that I have from earlier and have modified since you asked the question:


11.) Earlier in the thread both Barkeep and Stkelly have expressed concern about you. Those are two of the names on my initial trust list from today (yes, another list)
I

I'm assuming you wrote this in response to Barkeep's in post #865. But I do not understand this one. If you are writing it to Barkeep and you are saying he is on your trust list and he expressed concern about himself, this does not make sense. Also, Barkeep answers this in another post and does not say anything about it being his name on your secret trust list or himself expressing concern over himself, Huh?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

I'm assuming you wrote this in response to Barkeep's in post #865. But I do not understand this one. If you are writing it to Barkeep and you are saying he is on your trust list and he expressed concern about himself, this does not make sense. Also, Barkeep answers this in another post and does not say anything about it being his name on your secret trust list or himself expressing concern over himself, Huh?

Probably just a typo is my guess.

[Grammaticus]

This is Barkeep in post 882.

Everyone's name gets tossed about as suspicious by someone. But I understand this at least.

Quote from Hoops' post:
12.) Your posts about voting records discouraging that line of thought on Day 3 and then coming in now after being gone all day when the topic is once again being discussed. It seems like you are going out of your way to discourage this train of thought even though several others think that this is a logical way to approach the game.

What, how do you understand this at least?

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Probably just a typo is my guess.

So, it is a typo and Barkeep in a detailed reply post does not recognize it and says he understands that the most??

[Grammaticus]

dola, then hoops votes barkeep after setting up a duel between Taz and kwhit, only to unvote him after that exchange. They are probably both Sith, screwing with us.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

So, it is a typo and Barkeep in a detailed reply post does not recognize it and says he understands that the most??

Your guess is as good as mine, man.

I'm just saying, with Barkeep on the brain, it might've just been a brainfart. I'm sure Hoops will set us straight when he gets back from wherever it is he went.

[TazFTW]

Most Trusted: Gram

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So I am going to be secretly rooting for Qwik to be lynched, but I personally refuse to vote for someone who I believe to be a Jedi. Therefore with only one other viable target today I

Vote Taz

I will be gone until after lynch.

Huh...

Well if you guys think I'm not a Jedi, so be it.

Unvote Taz
Vote Qwikshot

I doubt you'll be sorry when I'm gone, I am just a regular Jedi...but so be it.

May the Force be with you all.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Agreed.

VOTE QWIKSHOT

Sorry, been at work all day and have been trying to get caught up while fighting with the finacee' because I'm on the computer instead of talking about wedding stuff with her.

Gonna go with mckerney and cartman, Qwik has become teflon too suddenly...

Vote Qwik

[hoopsguy]

It was Ardent, not Barkeep, that I meant in Point #11.

I can assure you that I'm not playing some game with Barkeep to screw with you guys. I fired out the vote on Barkeep because I was frustrated that he continued to throw me under the microscope. The list I posted was something that I had largely compiled over the weekend, but even though I took those notes I had not convinced myself that he was a Sith. Just that he had more posts that I could evaluate than many of the other players.

And I don't want to vote for someone that I don't believe is the most likely to be a Sith, even if he has antagonized me for three days now.

[Poli]

I'm going to have to read point 11 then.

[hoopsguy]

Gram, given that I have yet to back the guy who ends up getting lynched, me setting up someone in a duel ought to be a reason for them to jump for joy

Just to answer the question directly, even though I alluded to it in the last post, I was going to cast my vote for one of those two guys (Taz/KWhit) after setting it up in Post #351. I hopped in the car to drive home while I figured out where I wanted to go with this and then the fire up the PC to see Post #861 from Barkeep where he says I'm again being a wolf. I was frustrated and voted on that. Which is not how I normally play the game.

After cooling down a little bit, I decided that I would rather try to get a Sith tonight than vote angry. So I unvoted Barkeep.

I worry a little more about KWhit than Taz because he seems to be deviating more from his usual game than Taz. I thought KWhit played a terrific game in the Treasure Hunter game, but if he is a Jedi here then we are not getting his "A" game. So I'll cast a vote for the guy who feels more "off" to me instead of following the guy I am leaning towards trusting in Ardent.

VOTE KWHIT