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Old 10-31-2006, 10:42 AM   #2201
Mr. Wednesday
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Yep, we're waiting on Fouts right now.
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Old 10-31-2006, 11:16 AM   #2202
LoneStarGirl
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Haha good one chubby. I dont even watch the houston texans, so there... I feel so special getting night killed for the first time.

But why me? thats weird? I would expect fouts... but maybe the zombies didn't think i would be protected so it would be an easy kill. Good luck STARS
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Old 10-31-2006, 12:31 PM   #2203
Lorena
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Wow, LSG?! Interesting and calculated kill, but as LSG mentioned, the zombie/s probably didn't expect her to be guarded.

So we're down to 7. 4-1-2 maybe? Or 4-2-1? The numbers are still on our side which leaves me hopeful.
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Old 10-31-2006, 01:00 PM   #2204
Mr. Wednesday
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Eight, actually. Possibly no lynch today, depending on what the remaining Umbrella decide to do.
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Old 10-31-2006, 01:01 PM   #2205
Mr. Wednesday
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Er, forgot about the lynch yesterday. Right, only seven.
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Old 10-31-2006, 01:01 PM   #2206
Mr. Wednesday
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Double dola, we should still control the lynch today, but we gotta make it count.
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Old 10-31-2006, 01:51 PM   #2207
Fouts
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I am shocked at being alive still. Give me a sec.
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Old 10-31-2006, 01:56 PM   #2208
Fouts
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Well, I decided to view BrianD because I felt strongly that spleen was a zombie and I wanted to see if Brian was working with him. BrianD is Umbrella.

So we are either at 4-2-1 or 3-2-2.

vote spleen
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:17 PM   #2209
hoopsguy
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Fouts, that logic seems very backwards to me - why not view Spleen first? Now we are guessing between Spleen and Dodgerchick today. I thought we had agreed that there was almost no scenario where BrianD was a Zombie acting alone?
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:19 PM   #2210
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Fouts, that logic seems very backwards to me - why not view Spleen first? Now we are guessing between Spleen and Dodgerchick today. I thought we had agreed that there was almost no scenario where BrianD was a Zombie acting alone?

He didn't scan me. He is guessing at what I am to try to get me to admit being bad when he really scanned someone else. If he had really scanned me he would see that I am STARS.

Smart play Fouts, but you guessed the wrong person.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:24 PM   #2211
Mr. Wednesday
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How certain are we that there are two zombies, and not just one?
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:24 PM   #2212
Mr. Wednesday
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Dola, it makes a big difference in how to play today.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:25 PM   #2213
Mr. Wednesday
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Double dola, interesting that Umbrella hasn't made a move yet. Who are they waiting for?
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:25 PM   #2214
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MrW, not certain at all. Umbrella would like us to believe there are two, but no way of knowing.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:32 PM   #2215
Lorena
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Dang fouts, I thought you were gonna scan spleen or myself, now that's gonna leave us in a tight situation as I thought you would have cleared me.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:34 PM   #2216
Chief Rum
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This will be my one post for the day on my lunch break. I won't be able to be back until later tonight, after the deadline.

Of course, I am sticking with my vote from yesterday.

LYNCH SPLEEN

Good hunting, everyone.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:35 PM   #2217
hoopsguy
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Before I went to bed last night I thought the chances of Fouts as Umbrella were about 3%. That number moves up with BrianD as his scan choice for last night, just not sure how high I put the number now.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:36 PM   #2218
Fouts
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Originally Posted by Dodgerchick View Post
Dang fouts, I thought you were gonna scan spleen or myself, now that's gonna leave us in a tight situation as I thought you would have cleared me.

Sorry that I can't hand you guys the game in a handbasket. Somebody do some detective work.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:36 PM   #2219
hoopsguy
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Chief, yesterday you said that Spleen was a Zombie. You also said that you would likely not vote with STARS if we lynched an Umbrella yesterday.

We lynched a Zombie. Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives?
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:39 PM   #2220
Fouts
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He didn't scan me. He is guessing at what I am to try to get me to admit being bad when he really scanned someone else. If he had really scanned me he would see that I am STARS.

Smart play Fouts, but you guessed the wrong person.

Let me guess, you are claiming a vanilla STARS role, right?
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:40 PM   #2221
hoopsguy
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Dola - correction on above post (#2219)

We lynched an Umbrella (not a Zombie). Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives?
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:42 PM   #2222
Fouts
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Dola - correction on above post (#2219)

We lynched an Umbrella (not a Zombie). Today you are voting for the guy you called a Zombie last night. What gives?

He said that was his one post of the day. I find his vote suspicious, too.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:43 PM   #2223
Fouts
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Before I went to bed last night I thought the chances of Fouts as Umbrella were about 3%. That number moves up with BrianD as his scan choice for last night, just not sure how high I put the number now.

Well, my theory was good last night. Doesn't look as good with Brian not being a zombie. At least it wasn't as bad as the zombies choice for a kill last night.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:46 PM   #2224
BrianD
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So who did you really scan last night Fouts?
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:47 PM   #2225
Fouts
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So who did you really scan last night Fouts?

Tell Chief to give up his second zombie and I'll tell you.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:48 PM   #2226
hoopsguy
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MrW - sniper
Hoops - bodyguard
Fouts - IA? no Zombies identified yet
Chief - Umbrella (admitted)
Brian - Umbrella per Fouts
DC - ???
Spleen - Zombie per Chief

Occam's Razor suggests that Brian is the 2nd Umbrella with Chief. Just not sure I buy the Razor at the moment ...
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:50 PM   #2227
Fouts
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If we look at it from Chief's perspective, which faction does he want us to lynch today?

If it is 3-2-2 or 4-2-1, I think he wants us to lynch STARS. He knows we have the advantage.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:51 PM   #2228
SnDvls
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I love WW
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:54 PM   #2229
hoopsguy
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Every day Chief/Umbrella wants us to lose STARS unless doing so hands the game to the Zombies.

No matter what ratio we have right now (3-2-2 or 4-2-1) he wants us to lycnh STARS today. Of course, if it was 3-2-2 then the Zombies could potentially double kill at night for the win (25% chance).

SnDvls, I share the sentiment.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:56 PM   #2230
Fouts
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We could lynch Chief, if we're worried about lynching a STARS.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:57 PM   #2231
hoopsguy
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Umbrella was not in a position to win yesterday, but they were certainly in a position to take control of the game. Therefore, I believe the following:
- Primary motivation: save their own guy
- Secondary motivation: lead a lynch of a STARS member

Chief voted for Spleen last night and again today. I will not be voting for Spleen today.

VOTE DODGERCHICK
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:58 PM   #2232
Fouts
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We'll I was 60/40 in favor of lynching spleen until Chief's vote. Now its a toss-up.

vote dodgerchick
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:59 PM   #2233
hoopsguy
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Fouts, if I knew that there was only one Zombie left I would strongly consider voting for Chief.
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:59 PM   #2234
Fouts
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I screwed that up.

unvote spleen

vote dodgerchick
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Old 10-31-2006, 02:59 PM   #2235
Mr. Wednesday
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I wouldn't say Chief is "admitted" Umbrella, I would say he's "avowed" Umbrella.

The trouble for Umbrella is that they still need to clear out at least one zombie to have a chance at winning. If there's really only one Umbrella left, though, that player is cooked as either Umbrella or STARS would get to their victory condition first.
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:00 PM   #2236
Mr. Wednesday
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VOTE DodgerChick
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:01 PM   #2237
Fouts
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Fouts, if I knew that there was only one Zombie left I would strongly consider voting for Chief.

Yeah, it is risky. If you were a zombie, would you only attempt one kill last night?

The night you were attacked, do you think it was our current zombie plus path making kill attempts? And path was killed after he attacked you?
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:03 PM   #2238
spleen1015
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I had BrianD pegged as Umbrella. He thinks Chief is still on his side, so I can see him playing this way.

STARS - Mr. W, hoops, Fouts, spleen
Umbrella - Brian D
Zombie - Chief Rum (converted Umbrella), Dodgerchick
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:03 PM   #2239
Fouts
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What I'm trying to decided is: would 2 zombies only attempt 1 kill last night?

The night path died, there was one kill + an attack on hoops. Did path get off his action that night before going down?
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:06 PM   #2240
Mr. Wednesday
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What's our play if DodgerChick turns out to be STARS?
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:08 PM   #2241
Mr. Wednesday
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What I'm trying to decided is: would 2 zombies only attempt 1 kill last night?
Why they might: guarantees a kill, they think we're still in the dark about who's on what side and they can still squeeze out a victory

Why they might not: only killing one STARS would potentially leave STARS in control of the vote, where it's probably better for the zombies for none of the factions to have a majority.
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:08 PM   #2242
BrianD
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Vote Dodgerchick
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:15 PM   #2243
hoopsguy
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MrW, if we have a bad lynch today then:

3-2-1, Zombies take their shot with a night kill, I have a 33% chance of blocking it.

2-2-2 Zombies can go for the win or play it cautiously with their night kill by going for an Umbrella knowing that I'm much more likely to defend a known STARS.

You have the option to use your night Snipe in either scenario.
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:44 PM   #2244
Fouts
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
MrW, if we have a bad lynch today then:

3-2-1, Zombies take their shot with a night kill, I have a 33% chance of blocking it.

2-2-2 Zombies can go for the win or play it cautiously with their night kill by going for an Umbrella knowing that I'm much more likely to defend a known STARS.

You have the option to use your night Snipe in either scenario.

If Mr. W is wrong, we lose both him and the target. Game over.
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:47 PM   #2245
Fouts
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Vote Dodgerchick

I'd really like to know how you are trying to win. You and I know what you are, so what is your motivation?

I know you will still claim to be STARS, but how do you see Umbrella winning this one?
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:50 PM   #2246
Lorena
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Well... from the looks of it, I'm a gonner. I've attempted a defense in prior games and have yet to be successful because I'm just not persuasive, or have the experience most of you have.

By lynching me you will not lynch a zombie, unfortunately. So I'm gonna have to

vote spleen

Spleen is trying WAAAAAAY too hard which seems suspicious and the voting record speaks for itself. Of course after he was found out, he "went along with the crowd" as a sort of cover.

I'm gonna be super, super busy getting the kids ready for trick-or-treat so I'll be gone for several hours and I hope to come back by lynch.
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Old 10-31-2006, 03:55 PM   #2247
spleen1015
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The zombies were hoping that you would still be focused on me today. Plus, have 2 go for 1 is a 100% kill where 2 for 2 is only 50%.
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Old 10-31-2006, 04:05 PM   #2248
Mr. Wednesday
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Having two attempt kills has a 25% chance of no kill, 50% chance of one kill, 25% chance of two kills.
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Old 10-31-2006, 04:06 PM   #2249
BrianD
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Originally Posted by Fouts View Post
I'd really like to know how you are trying to win. You and I know what you are, so what is your motivation?

I know you will still claim to be STARS, but how do you see Umbrella winning this one?

Umbrella is not going to win this one. Neither are the zombies. We tried a bluff yesterday with the claim that there were two zombies remaining, but nobody bought it. All we can do now is take out the last zombie and move on.
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Old 10-31-2006, 04:11 PM   #2250
hoopsguy
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Fouts, I wish you had scanned someone else but after a review of Day 2 posts I believe your scan results.

Post #772
Quote:
Has everybody forgotten about the st.cronin "you all suck, I'm going home" move? Am I the only one that still thinks that was an act of desperation of a condemned man? I'm surprised it worked as well as it seems to have.

Vote at the time?
Lathum (Umbrella) - 5
Cronin (STARS) - 4
SnDvls (Umbrella) - 3
Brian (Umbrella) -2
Alan (STARS) - 2

Then Chief (Umbrella) rolled in and initially voted for Cronin to tie it up, before switching when he realized how that could play out for his faction.
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