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Old 08-04-2009, 09:13 AM   #51
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
Happy day!

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Old 08-04-2009, 10:26 AM   #52
Lathum
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
Vote Danny

not a fan of a seer reveal.
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Old 08-04-2009, 11:20 AM   #53
nfg22
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
I like Lathum. I hate the Bulls.

VOTE J23
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Old 08-04-2009, 12:09 PM   #54
claphamsa
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
hey all! finally got it fixed! stupid firewall :P
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Old 08-04-2009, 12:36 PM   #55
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
Quote:
Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
Clap is his own technical issue. If you talk to him, ask him if he's asked out that girl from the Metro yet. If he hasn't, then I may have to vote him.

He's not a technical issue. He's some far programmer, I think.
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Old 08-04-2009, 12:40 PM   #56
KWhit
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
It's awfully quiet in here today. I'm used to the huge games with crazy rulesets that give us stuff to talk about even on day one.
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Old 08-04-2009, 12:49 PM   #57
J23
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
I'm also a vanilla villager, like all but 4(?) of us.

With nothing to go on, I'll guess I will just simply retaliate.

Vote nfg22
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Old 08-04-2009, 12:59 PM   #58
claphamsa
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
vote kwhit

no making fun of me!
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Old 08-04-2009, 01:34 PM   #59
EagleFan
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Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
As of post 58:

Danny 1 - Lathum (52)
J23 1 - nfg22 (53)
nfg22 1 - J23 (57)
KWhit 1 - claphamsa (58)

Last edited by EagleFan : 08-04-2009 at 01:34 PM. Reason: font color
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Old 08-04-2009, 02:12 PM   #60
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Vote Danny

not a fan of a seer reveal.
Kidding me right? Look at the logic I laid out in an 8 player game in which the seer would be guaranteed protection. Furthermore, if the game is 4-2, the wolves then have at least a 25% chance of knocking off the seer that night, that's if it even matters as we will be flying in blind and have a much lower % of catching a wolf and will be more likely to lose the game on day 2. A seer reveal gives us a much better chance at extending the game which is what we need.
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Old 08-04-2009, 02:20 PM   #61
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
At this point it is conjecture though before we see what happens day 1, things need to flow the a certain way, but I stand by that a seer reveal which clears 2 people with 6 left is well worth it.
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Old 08-04-2009, 02:22 PM   #62
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
I'm normally not one to make a retaliatory vote, but I just can't see what Lathum is seeing right now, so I will vote him pending further explanation.

Vote Lathum
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Old 08-04-2009, 02:28 PM   #63
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Wow, so votes on 5 different people, sheesh. My d1 vote will go to KWhit, it's been a while since we've played in the same game. Good to see you:

vote KWhit
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Old 08-04-2009, 02:28 PM   #64
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Claphamsa, before that vote is set in stone, have you asked out that girl from work yet?
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Old 08-04-2009, 02:50 PM   #65
claphamsa
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
no, I havent seen her! were not in the same building
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Old 08-04-2009, 02:56 PM   #66
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by claphamsa View Post
no, I havent seen her! were not in the same building

Hmmm, okay, it can slide...for now!
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Old 08-04-2009, 03:30 PM   #67
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
At this point it is conjecture though before we see what happens day 1, things need to flow the a certain way, but I stand by that a seer reveal which clears 2 people with 6 left is well worth it.

If there is a bad lynch on day 1, that would leave it 6-2 as you mentioned. If the seer is not in danger of being lynched, that's only a 20% (or 25% chance if the second lynch goes badly)of being killed the next night. Is the risk worth waiting an extra night for scanning an additional person?

You're potentially risking two reveals since it isn't easy to hint at who is cleared and who is a wolf without giving away your role.

Also, did the cunning wolf make it in? That would make the scan really only reliable if it hits the other wolf, and thus perhaps a bit less of a vital role in the game.
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Old 08-04-2009, 04:07 PM   #68
Lathum
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
I just think Danny is playing the helpful wolf role
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Old 08-04-2009, 05:17 PM   #69
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
If there is a bad lynch on day 1, that would leave it 6-2 as you mentioned. If the seer is not in danger of being lynched, that's only a 20% (or 25% chance if the second lynch goes badly)of being killed the next night. Is the risk worth waiting an extra night for scanning an additional person?

You're potentially risking two reveals since it isn't easy to hint at who is cleared and who is a wolf without giving away your role.

Also, did the cunning wolf make it in? That would make the scan really only reliable if it hits the other wolf, and thus perhaps a bit less of a vital role in the game.

Your numbers are off. It's 6-2 right now, a bad day 1 leaves it as 4-2, at that point we are in end game anyway and need all the info we can get. Plus the % is 25% because the wolves are not going to kill themselves and there are four villagers left. I really can't see any scenario where it would be a bad idea for the seer to reveal unless we get a wolf today which changes things quite a bit.
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Old 08-04-2009, 05:18 PM   #70
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I just think Danny is playing the helpful wolf role

Well, If I was a wolf, I probably would be doing that yes. Regardless if you think I am a wolf, the analysis is sound.
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Old 08-04-2009, 05:21 PM   #71
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
And so far Lathum, I read your play as trying to add confusion with the BG disagreement and now the seer. I also think in a game this small with a few relatively new players that you would want me out of the game early if you were a wolf.
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Old 08-04-2009, 05:34 PM   #72
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
I'll be around for the next 30-45 minutes or so and then will be out until deadline. I don't see me changing my vote at this point unless Lathum comes on so I can hear his line of thinking on my analysis other than he thinks I am being a helpful wolf.
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Old 08-04-2009, 05:56 PM   #73
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
unvote Danny
Vote KWhit


need to break up this logjam
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:01 PM   #74
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Hopefully Kwhit checks in we make this a race and not a run away.
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:18 PM   #75
J23
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
I'll do what I can to make it a two horse race.

Unvote nfg22
Vote Claphamsa
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:24 PM   #76
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
That doesn't really change much though, Clap has no votes.
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:37 PM   #77
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
PB. what are your thoughts?
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:39 PM   #78
J23
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
oops, I read the vote count wrong. I'll wait and throw it wherever.

unvote Claphamsa
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:42 PM   #79
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
We could make this a Lathum/Kwhit race, I think that's a solid day 1 race.
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:55 PM   #80
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Hmmm, I would think that if Lathum was not a wolf, the wolves would have looked to establish him as the second candidate and then shift the blame to me for the pressure I put on him.

I'd really like to see Lathum a part of this run off.
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:59 PM   #81
EagleFan
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Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
As of post 79:

J23 1 - nfg22 (53)
KWhit 3 - claphamsa (58), PurdueBrad (63), Lathum (73)
Lathum 1 - Danny (62)
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Old 08-04-2009, 06:59 PM   #82
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
Danny, you are really pinging me right now pushing so hard. You said earlier if I was a wolf I would want you out, the same can be said for you about me.

Why so interested in me day 1 when all things are equal?
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:00 PM   #83
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
PB. what are your thoughts?

Sorry Danny, I had stepped away. In a small game like this, day 1 will be vital for vote analysis. I obviously have no read but don't love that KWhit hasn't been back yet. It's day 1 and there was only one person I wouldn't have voted for on D1 and that was the new guy, J23. With the second vote on KWhit, I know that if he's good I will look bad but I think I would've looked worse throwing a sixth candidate out there. So, we'll see.

As for what I've seen today, I would guess, and this is a guess based on numbers, that there may be a wolf between Danny and Lathum. They are definitely playing off of each other but it's either two villagers butting heads or a wolf laying early suspicion on a villager and the villager responding to that. I think this is pretty much what you are establishing in your post as well Danny.

I guess that's what I've got, not a ton on day 1.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:01 PM   #84
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
dola- and if Danny wanted to make it a race he would vote J23 and make it tighter, not campaign against me.

Also, if I am a wolf why unvote Danny, especialy since I know KWhit is going to have to protect himself with his vote.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:08 PM   #85
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Danny, you are really pinging me right now pushing so hard. You said earlier if I was a wolf I would want you out, the same can be said for you about me.

Why so interested in me day 1 when all things are equal?

Just the initial exchanged pinged me as different from you as a villager. You're right I could vote J23 to make it a two man race. I've kind of avoided that because he is new, but I guess we really can't avoid that too much since we have so few days. I get to stay later then I thought, but not until deadline, so I will see what happens here in the next 10-15
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:09 PM   #86
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Has Jets checked in yet?
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:11 PM   #87
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
I saw Jets on *I think* but I don't recall a post.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:11 PM   #88
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by JetsIn06 View Post
Checking in.

Yeah, here at 1:03 AM.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:12 PM   #89
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
So we have two players not really checked in, and one with internet problems.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:12 PM   #90
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Ah ok, so he did check in
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:12 PM   #91
PurdueBrad
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
So we have two players not really checked in, and one with internet problems.

Who hasn't checked in?
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:13 PM   #92
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Kwhit
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:13 PM   #93
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Nevermind, he did too, I just miss both his and Jets 1 post.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:15 PM   #94
PurdueBrad
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
Everybody has checked in, just three votes out there: Jets, J23, and KWhit.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:17 PM   #95
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
I have to get going now. I don't really like doing this, but this needs to not be a run away and Lathum has had no support yet.

Unvote Lathum
Vote J23
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:19 PM   #96
Danny
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
I normally never vote a new player day 1, but it's too small of a game to let that get in the way here. I hope you play in a big game J23, so I can not vote you on day 1
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:27 PM   #97
nfg22
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
hmm...
Im open to changing my vote. I think we have one wolf between Lathum and Danny.

Not to say J23 isnt a wolf but I dont want to be the one who started the run on the new guy.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:28 PM   #98
EagleFan
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Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
As of post 96:

J23 2 - nfg22 (53), Danny (95)
KWhit 3 - claphamsa (58), PurdueBrad (63), Lathum (73)

Last edited by EagleFan : 08-04-2009 at 07:29 PM.
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:28 PM   #99
claphamsa
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
ok, just finished painting! man did i make a mess, gonna catch up!
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Old 08-04-2009, 07:29 PM   #100
claphamsa
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
ok thanks for the count! now we also have 3 no votes?
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