2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[ISiddiqui]

Duckworth is up to 16c today. Harris and Rice are still 1 and 2 (45c and 21c). I bet name recognition applies to betting markets. A lot of people still don't know who Duckworth is.

[Edward64]

I would propose increased taxes on the wealthy and not necessarily increase corporate taxes (but change them where companies can't "avoid" them as much). More analysis needed on impact to deficit etc. but the focus on reinvesting in US will resonate.

This seems a step back from the race to globalism and acknowledging we have to catch up, play defense against China.

I hope he truly has a strategic plan (e.g. long term and with support from partners) to act against/apply pressure on China economically, technologically and politically.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/bide...omic-plan.html

The message Biden laid out in opening remarks echoes ideas from progressive Democrats, who have pushed behind the scenes for Biden to use this historic moment to rewrite the rules with drastically wider social safety nets and higher taxes on the wealthy.

The policies themselves were not starkly different from those that Biden had previously outlined, though. He echoed his call for Amazon to pay income taxes. He said he would raise the U.S. corporate tax rate to 28% from the current 21%, just as he did previously. He also again pushed for a $15 an hour federal minimum wage.
:
:
Biden earlier in the day rolled out a $700 billion manufacturing and innovation plan that reflects a coronavirus America. The large price tag shows how big of a gap he believes there is to fill. Its focus on U.S.-made products reflects a country even more unnerved by the country’s dependency on China, as its supply chains have been threatened by the global health crisis.

That dependency has also been a battle cry for Trump.

“Let’s use this opportunity to make bold investments in American industry and innovation so the future is Made In America — and in all of America,” Biden said.

His plan includes $400 billion to invest in products and materials the U.S. needs. It will offer a tax credit to companies that renovate or revive their facilities.

Biden is also pledging a $300 billion investment in research and development in technologies spanning electric cars to 5G.

[Brian Swartz]

I like some of that, and I think it's smart politically, but a very bad idea strategically, to throw that kind of red meat at manufacturing. Manufacturing as a major engine of the economy is the past. We're not ready to admit that yet, but I hope we get there sooner rather than later.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I like some of that, and I think it's smart politically, but a very bad idea strategically, to throw that kind of red meat at manufacturing. Manufacturing as a major engine of the economy is the past. We're not ready to admit that yet, but I hope we get there sooner rather than later.

Admittedly I've not seen the details, but my impression is Biden wants to encourage manufacturing like in pharmaceuticals where we are less dependent on frenemies.

I think this makes sense honestly. Yes, we may have to pay more for some stuff but I'm okay with it.

For less "strategic" items, definitely encourage the trend of spreading the wealth and companies having more diverse supply chains (e.g. India, Philippines, Malaysia etc. vs China).

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I like some of that, and I think it's smart politically, but a very bad idea strategically, to throw that kind of red meat at manufacturing. Manufacturing as a major engine of the economy is the past. We're not ready to admit that yet, but I hope we get there sooner rather than later.

We manufactur more now than we ever did. It's just the majority of that manufacturing are done by robots. And it's 14% of the country's GDP (Top 3 sector in the Economy IIRC). People write off manufacturing way too easily or think it's just like car factories (which actually are doing well down in the US South fwiw)

[Brian Swartz]

I'm not saying manufacturing is irrelevant; I'm saying it's not what we should be investing in. It's down approximately 40% in pretty much every major economy over the past few decades by share of GDP. 14% sounds like a lot but it used to be 25%, and more importantly those days aren't returning. We don't want to get rid of it, but my point is we should be investing in the future not the past.

I do think Edward has a good point, and I'll withhold further judgement until I know more details on where Biden wants that $700B to go.

[ISiddiqui]

I will note that the 2019 14% is actually worth more than the 1950 25%. But even looking to the future, investing in manufacturing is important - future industries depends on higher labor productivity to produce those items. And in high technology sectors, such as pharmaceutical, electronics, and aircraft manufacturing, a lot of that is built in high GDP countries.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I like some of that, and I think it's smart politically, but a very bad idea strategically, to throw that kind of red meat at manufacturing. Manufacturing as a major engine of the economy is the past. We're not ready to admit that yet, but I hope we get there sooner rather than later.

The problem is we need to have sectors to provide jobs for approx. $150 million people. Not everyone can be in high tech, we need manufacturing jobs.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Duckworth is up to 16c today. Harris and Rice are still 1 and 2 (45c and 21c). I bet name recognition applies to betting markets. A lot of people still don't know who Duckworth is.

Rice would be a bad pick, but 2020 has already sucked so bad that we may as well spend the rest of the year hearing about Benghazi some more.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by stevew

Rice would be a bad pick, but 2020 has already sucked so bad that we may as well spend the rest of the year hearing about Benghazi some more.

Really?

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I will note that the 2019 14% is actually worth more than the 1950 25%.

What do you see as the relevance of this? Obviously the other 75% has grown even more.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by stevew

Rice would be a bad pick, but 2020 has already sucked so bad that we may as well spend the rest of the year hearing about Benghazi some more.

As if whoever gets picked, the GOP won't pick something to harp on. If it is not Benghazi, it will be something else. I think Rice would be a fantastic pick.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

As if whoever gets picked, the GOP won't pick something to harp on. If it is not Benghazi, it will be something else. I think Rice would be a fantastic pick.

She has the creds and she seems to take China-as-a-threat seriously. So I would take her also, if anything as insurance for Biden's only recent acceptance that China is a threat.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

What do you see as the relevance of this? Obviously the other 75% has grown even more.

Has it? Or has information technology, which barely existed back in the 50s exploded and been the key to modem economies (a lot of modern US manufacturing supports that). It means manufacturing is still highly important and it being worth more than in the past is relevant to that.

As stated, manufacturing isn't just car factories, after all.

[ISiddiqui]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ominous-trump/

Biden is running a TV ad in Texas (where polls are TIED!). Decent ad as well.

[spleen1015]

I like the strategy. Talk about what you are going to do for the country, have a real plan. Let his opponent do all of the mudslinging without mention of any plan.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ominous-trump/

Biden is running a TV ad in Texas (where polls are TIED!). Decent ad as well.

There is no chance he wins in Texas but I think the ad is to help down ballot votes as the state legislature has been shifting a lot.

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, say what you want about Beto O'Rourke, at least he showed that Texas was rapidly changing.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Yeah, say what you want about Beto O'Rourke, at least he showed that Texas was rapidly changing.

If that Senate race was this year, Beto would have a shot. Then again they might shut down every voting booth in every major city.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There is no chance he wins in Texas but I think the ad is to help down ballot votes as the state legislature has been shifting a lot.

There's a chance of the Texas state house going blue this year and that would be a big deal with regards to redistricting going forward.

SI

[NobodyHere]

Kanye has proposed free weed to everyone.

Maybe that's what this nation needs to chill the F out.

[Edward64]

A good thing, maybe other more traditional GOP will follow.

Wonder if & who Biden will pick as the GOP member of his cabinet?

Ex-Gov. John Kasich slated to speak at the Democratic National Convention for Joe Biden - cleveland.com

John Kasich, the Republican ex-governor of Ohio turned critic of President Donald Trump, is expected to speak at the Democratic National Convention next month in support of Joe Biden, according to the Associated Press.

It’s a move that would be unthinkable just a few years ago, when, as governor, Kasich clashed with Democrats on a range of issues, from abortion to collective bargaining for public employees.

Kasich is one of a number of high-profile Republicans who intend to work against Trump’s re-election in the closing days of the campaign, according to the AP. Kasich’s 2016 campaign manager, John Weaver, co-founded the Lincoln Project, a group that is already airing anti-Trump TV ads. In addition, ex-Ohio GOP Chair Matt Borges, a Kasich ally, has formed a pro-Biden super PAC.

[NobodyHere]

Biden says 'racists' have sought the U.S. presidency before but Trump is first one elected

Biden, just stop talking. Your party was founded to elect a slave-owner.

[ISiddiqui]

I thought you folks got all pearl clutchy when someone calls Thomas Jefferson a racist?

[albionmoonlight]

There have been a lot of racist Presidents.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

There have been a lot of racist Presidents.

No doubt, but as a political statement it's a good one. People don't like to think of previous Presidents as racists. They like to think, well according to their time they were normal (even though there are obvious examples to the contrary - Andrew Jackson, Andrew Johnson, Woodrow Wilson, Richard Nixon, etc).

[albionmoonlight]

Gotta put FDR and Japanese Internment on that list, too.

[Radii]

I'm okay going with the idea that no president has had any real interest in ending racist institutions (ie every core institution that the nation was founded on) except for Lincoln, and he went out of his way to say that he actually didn't care about doing it, only about keeping the union together. Biden certainly won't care about this either.

Moving the goal posts here from "who is racist and who isn't" (which you've seen me argue many times isn't usually something that is a yes/no question except in extreme cases like Trump) to "who is anti-racist and who isn't", and I'd say we're 0 for 45 in presidents actively speaking in a way that is anti-racist.

[NobodyHere]

Looks like some Bernie supporters aren't going quietly

Bernie Sanders delegates mount convention rebellion over 'Medicare for All' - POLITICO

[ISiddiqui]

I mean they'll lose. And it'll be another way for Biden to show he's a moderate in face of attacks by Trump that's he's a socialist.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I mean they'll lose. And it'll be another way for Biden to show he's a moderate in face of attacks by Trump that's he's a socialist.

Yeah. I can see the Trump people being all like "We're working hard here to try and convince people that Biden is Bernie's puppet. AND Y'ALL AREN'T HELPING!"

[Edward64]

Biden is going to make VP announcement next week.

No strong preference other than not Warren.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/polit...ate/index.html

Two of Biden's former primary rivals, California Sen. Kamala Harris and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, are said to be under consideration for the Democratic ticket.

Others who have been considered include former Obama national security adviser Susan Rice, Florida Rep. Val Demings, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Rep. Karen Bass, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Biden is going to make VP announcement next week.

No strong preference other than not Warren.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/polit...ate/index.html

This means you're running out of time to run a chauvinistic Hot or Not Vice President nomination edition.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Biden is going to make VP announcement next week.

No strong preference other than not Warren.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/polit...ate/index.html

Heard on TV NYTimes is saying he is picking Rice which I would be happy with.

[QuikSand]

PredictIt movement today:

Harris up 23c to 61
Rice down 8c to 21
...everyone else at 6c or lower

[QuikSand]

As I typed... Harris up, Rice down 1c each

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

This means you're running out of time to run a chauvinistic Hot or Not Vice President nomination edition.

I'll do it just for you. Who do you want first up?

[NobodyHere]

I'd say just go with this list

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/polit...ris/index.html

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'd say just go with this list

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/polit...ris/index.html

I want you to pick one.

Some CYA. There will be the inevitable backlash from this group and I want to point them to your request

[NobodyHere]

Start with number one and go up from there.

Although I'm not sure if my name really carries any weight on this board

[QuikSand]

I’m buying Rice on the rumor

[BishopMVP]

I'm buying Tulsi Gabbard (for the HoN poll winner)

[NobodyHere]

Joe is promising to pick a candidate next week.

He must've seen our HoN polls.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Joe is promising to pick a candidate next week.

He must've seen our HoN polls.

Joe is already breaking campaign promises...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...c21_story.html

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Joe is already breaking campaign promises...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...c21_story.html

It was weird that he gave himself an artificial deadline.

I learned early on that even if you think you will finish a week early, you still tell your boss that you'll have it by the date due.

And, if you do finish a week early, then he's still impressed. But if you promise it and then you don't, then the fact that you met the original deadline does not really matter.

Unforced error by Biden. Might even cost him a vote or two.

[NobodyHere]

Biden: Latino community is diverse 'unlike the African American community' - POLITICO

Imagine if Trump had made that remark...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Biden: Latino community is diverse 'unlike the African American community' - POLITICO

Imagine if Trump had made that remark...

Trump claims to have done more for blacks than anyone in history except Lincoln but let’s take a Biden statement out of context and attempt to make it a controversy.

[molson]

Just lay low Joe. Lay low. Get your running mate in there and let her handle the heavy lifting.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trump claims to have done more for blacks than anyone in history except Lincoln but let’s take a Biden statement out of context and attempt to make it a controversy.

I mean it wasn't even wrong. Latin folk do have a wide political differences that you generally do not see in the African-American community. It's why someone like W got close to 40% of the Latin vote in 2000, whereas the African-American vote tends to be around 90% for the Democratic candidate. Seems a bit ridiculous for Republicans for try to make hay out of this when for years they've continually tried to make the argument that African-Americans overwhelmingly voting for Democrats haven't done them any good, so they should vote Republican instead.

[JPhillips]

It's almost like complaints about cancel culture aren't sincere.