2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[JPhillips]

I expect waived in this case has a very narrow definition.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I expect waived in this case has a very narrow definition.

I agree, it's all optics. Just like they CARES Act was going to help out small businesses but has done jack shit. Most people only look at the initial announcement and never see how it is implemented.

[ISiddiqui]

Of course Biden has two significant differences from Hillary Clinton: 1) He has far lower unfavorables (aka less irrational hatred against him), 2) He's a man. I think the 2020 primary vis-a-vis true 2016 primary indicates the difference - Biden rolling Sanders in states he either won or was highly competitive in 2016 (Michigan, Missouri). Currently, Biden is polling within 5% of Trump among white voters (even with Trump's COVID bounce), which is surprising.

Trump is going to have to fight to win the white working class from Biden, which Clinton never was close to doing - in addition to keeping most of the Hillary voters.


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[Ben E Lou]

Bernie joins/endorses Biden, and within less than an hour, "Sorry Bernie" is trending.

[ISiddiqui]

It kind of reminds me when McCain picked Palin for his running mate. McCain had no idea how to close the box he opened when all the vile shit started spewing out.

[Ben E Lou]

The internet right now. pic.twitter.com/BoJzkSAjLz

— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) April 13, 2020

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

The internet right now. pic.twitter.com/BoJzkSAjLz

— Brandon Morse (@TheBrandonMorse) April 13, 2020

I have never seen anything on the internet so true as that

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Bernie joins/endorses Biden, and within less than an hour, "Sorry Bernie" is trending.

The sandersforpresident subreddit mods are refusing to acknowledge this and deleting any threads about it and banning people for supporting it.

It seems to be a good move for both. Some Sanders supporters are coming around since the Joe and Bernie campaigns will be getting together to work on policy goals. This alone is more common ground than Bernie and Hillary were able to find.

[molson]

Looks like Biden dominated in Wisconsin (65% - 29% with 60 of 84 in). We kind of saw that coming with Sanders dropping out so abruptly.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by molson

Looks like Biden dominated in Wisconsin (65% - 29% with 60 of 84 in). We kind of saw that coming with Sanders dropping out so abruptly.

More importantly (to those of us in Wisconsin anyway, but maybe some foreshadowing to the fall?) is that the liberal challenger for the Supreme Court seat looks to be sailing to an easy victory despite the issues leading up to the election that seemingly would have favored the incumbent conservative. Some data I've seen from GOP leaning counties is that the liberal is winning handily in those areas.

Wisconsin Supreme Court elections have been close and bitter lately so a liberal winning by a good margin in the midst of a pandemic and hardly any voting locations open in its largest city has to bode well for this fall.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by lungs

More importantly (to those of us in Wisconsin anyway, but maybe some foreshadowing to the fall?) is that the liberal challenger for the Supreme Court seat looks to be sailing to an easy victory despite the issues leading up to the election that seemingly would have favored the incumbent conservative. Some data I've seen from GOP leaning counties is that the liberal is winning handily in those areas.

Wisconsin Supreme Court elections have been close and bitter lately so a liberal winning by a good margin in the midst of a pandemic and hardly any voting locations open in its largest city has to bode well for this fall.

Cue WI GOP calls for a new election due to the low turnout amid virus fears.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Cue WI GOP calls for a new election due to the low turnout amid virus fears.

And widespread voter fraud from absentee ballots.

[sterlingice]

This is just a practice run so they know how much they need to put their thumb on the scale come November

SI

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by lungs

More importantly (to those of us in Wisconsin anyway, but maybe some foreshadowing to the fall?) is that the liberal challenger for the Supreme Court seat looks to be sailing to an easy victory despite the issues leading up to the election that seemingly would have favored the incumbent conservative. Some data I've seen from GOP leaning counties is that the liberal is winning handily in those areas.

Wisconsin Supreme Court elections have been close and bitter lately so a liberal winning by a good margin in the midst of a pandemic and hardly any voting locations open in its largest city has to bode well for this fall.

Great news lungs!

[Brian Swartz]

This isn't a surprise. Ever since Trump was elected, Republicans have done nothing but get their clocks cleaned. And they've now lost their strongest argument. I've always been confident Trump would lose this year, but I'm at the point now where I think it might be the biggest landslide since Reagan-Mondale.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Cue WI GOP calls for a new election due to the low turnout amid virus fears.

Absolutely. The President hasn't already tweeted about wide spread voter fraud?

[QuikSand]

We believe there were millions of phony WI ballots shipped in from Vermont. Or California. Or China. Whatever works here. We have people working on it. The best people.

[tarcone]

[ISiddiqui]

Day after Bernie's endorsement:

Barack Obama on Twitter: "I’m proud to endorse my friend @JoeBiden for President of the United States. Let's go: https://t.co/maHVGRozkX"

One thing about Biden and his team... they really know how to stack endorsements (and have them at the best possible time). It actually was something that impressed me in the primaries (esp after SC)

[Vegas Vic]

Shots fired from Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale:

“Barack Obama spent much of the last five years urging Joe Biden not to run for president out of fear that he would embarrass himself,” Parscale said Tuesday. "Now that Biden is the only candidate left in the Democrat field, Obama has no other choice but to support him.”

He added: “Even Bernie Sanders beat him to it. Obama was right in the first place: Biden is a bad candidate who will embarrass himself and his party. President Trump will destroy him.”

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This isn't a surprise. Ever since Trump was elected, Republicans have done nothing but get their clocks cleaned. And they've now lost their strongest argument. I've always been confident Trump would lose this year, but I'm at the point now where I think it might be the biggest landslide since Reagan-Mondale.

I want this sort of victory over Trump.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Shots fired from Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale:

“Barack Obama spent much of the last five years urging Joe Biden not to run for president out of fear that he would embarrass himself,” Parscale said Tuesday. "Now that Biden is the only candidate left in the Democrat field, Obama has no other choice but to support him.”

He added: “Even Bernie Sanders beat him to it. Obama was right in the first place: Biden is a bad candidate who will embarrass himself and his party. President Trump will destroy him.”

Still waiting for the last GOP president to endorse Trump.

[thesloppy]

I want this sort of victory over Trump.

Me too. Unfortunately I think we all know Trump could get beat down in historically unprecedented ways and still find a way to spin himself as the victim & the victor.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Still waiting for the last GOP president to endorse Trump.

Yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

George Bush Sr calls Trump a 'blowhard' and voted for Clinton - BBC News

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Shots fired from Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale:

“Barack Obama spent much of the last five years urging Joe Biden not to run for president out of fear that he would embarrass himself,” Parscale said Tuesday. "Now that Biden is the only candidate left in the Democrat field, Obama has no other choice but to support him.”

He added: “Even Bernie Sanders beat him to it. Obama was right in the first place: Biden is a bad candidate who will embarrass himself and his party. President Trump will destroy him.”

Well now I am convinced. Four more years! Where's the MAGA cap.

[RainMaker]

Was skeptical about Biden winning but what happened in Wisconsin makes me think he has a good shot. Lot of pissed off people. When people are willing to wait in line for hours during a pandemic, they are motivated.

[ISiddiqui]

I think it's the KAG cap now... a MAGA cap now means something different

[JPhillips]

Bernie dead-enders are viciously attacking...

Bernie, for not being progressive enough.

[albionmoonlight]

I realize that PredictIt is subject to manipulation.

But it is still interesting that they have Biden at 85% likely to get the nomination and Trump at 90% likely.

I sort of get it. They are old; there's an illness going around; both candidates are still seen as weak for various reasons.

But it is also kind of weird to have the race be de facto uncontested on both sides now and still have the numbers be below 95%.

[ISiddiqui]

And now Warren has endorsed Biden (way to take your time there).

I'm sure the Sanders supporters on Twitter who have turned on Sanders are going to take that one well.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I want this sort of victory over Trump.

That'd be nice, but let's take what we get and not quibble over the details

New poll out today - 65% of independents say Trump was unprepared for the coronavirus. Again, he's done like dinner.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That'd be nice, but let's take what we get and not quibble over the details

New poll out today - 65% of independents say Trump was unprepared for the coronavirus. Again, he's done like dinner.

He's never done and it's still months away from the election.

EDIT: Plus, that's lots of time for the Dems to shoot themselves in the dic-- foot. Over and over. As they do.

SI

[Fidatelo]

Plus you can't just assume that there will actually be an election. That's old-school thinking.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Plus, that's lots of time for the Dems to shoot themselves in the dic-- foot. Over and over. As they do.

But none of that has stopped them from winning … every election held since Trump took office. The Wisconsin result is just the latest. Nobody knows the future but there's a point at which when something keeps happening repeatedly, it gets pretty absurd to expect something different to happen in the future.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I realize that PredictIt is subject to manipulation.

But it is still interesting that they have Biden at 85% likely to get the nomination and Trump at 90% likely.

I sort of get it. They are old; there's an illness going around; both candidates are still seen as weak for various reasons.

But it is also kind of weird to have the race be de facto uncontested on both sides now and still have the numbers be below 95%.

Biden I guess has the #metoo thing going so conceivably somebody else could get the nod. I don't get the Trump at 90%. I mean if I am understanding this correctly I put down say $90 and "win" $10 if Trump gets the nomination? Seems about as certain as you will ever get for 1 to 9 odds doesn't it?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

But none of that has stopped them from winning … every election held since Trump took office. The Wisconsin result is just the latest. Nobody knows the future but there's a point at which when something keeps happening repeatedly, it gets pretty absurd to expect something different to happen in the future.

538's generic congressional is a good gauge of overall Dem support and Dems currently have a 7.8% lead. IIRC that's higher than what it was heading into the 2018 mid-terms.

Trumpism is super popular with 40% of country. I think the lesson the GOP learned from Wisconsin is their voters are more likely to stay home during a pandemic so normal voter suppression doesn't favor them as much as it usually does.

If we see another COVID outbreak this fall it's going to be interesting to see how the GOP handles voting.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I realize that PredictIt is subject to manipulation.

But it is still interesting that they have Biden at 85% likely to get the nomination and Trump at 90% likely.

I sort of get it. They are old; there's an illness going around; both candidates are still seen as weak for various reasons.

But it is also kind of weird to have the race be de facto uncontested on both sides now and still have the numbers be below 95%.

They are both old and likely at risk of contracting this due to their line of work. Sure they won't be shaking hands and kissing babies on the trail, but they're going to have to travel and be around others at some point. If either of them gets it, there is probably a 3-5% chance they don't make it.

Then you have other factors. Biden is in mental decline and if that kicks into gear, they may have no choice but to swap him out. Trump is also in the middle of a pandemic that he's botched catastrophically. If he makes a move to open up the economy and we start getting 5k deaths a day, there might be so much anger in the populace that he has to resign or tossed.

I don't think either is likely but I feel both these candidates are much more vulnerable than any other presumptive nominee in a long time.

[molson]

Plus the investors aren't necessarily looking for someone else to actually get the nomination, just a bit of news that pushes the odds down where it's worth a sale. We're one more Biden sexual harassment story, or Trump corruption story, or a coronvarius positive test or rumor of a positive test for either of them from getting those numbers down to 80%, even if briefly. Trump is 92 cents now but was as low as 83 cents just a few weeks ago.

[Edward64]

Biden, please don't go for Warren. Stick with Klobuchar or Harris.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by molson

Plus the investors aren't necessarily looking for someone else to actually get the nomination, just a bit of news that pushes the odds down where it's worth a sale. We're one more Biden sexual harassment story, or Trump corruption story, or a coronvarius positive test or rumor of a positive test for either of them from getting those numbers down to 80%, even if briefly. Trump is 92 cents now but was as low as 83 cents just a few weeks ago.

It's ok, right now, thanks to the R's sexual harassment, at any level, is no longer a disqualification for public office. And we know trump corruption is like oatmeal for breakfast. It's always an option if you've got enough brown sugar.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Biden, please don't go for Warren. Stick with Klobuchar or Harris.

I think Warren would be a great VP. Heck, I think she would have been a good President. However, I don't want to give the Senate another red seat. In short, I'm up for what I saw somewhere else: "I want her up for the job of Senate Majority Leader".

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think Warren would be a great VP. Heck, I think she would have been a good President. However, I don't want to give the Senate another red seat. In short, I'm up for what I saw somewhere else: "I want her up for the job of Senate Majority Leader".

SI

Biden may last 4 years but don't see him lasting +4 more. Warren is about same age. So we need some younger blood IMO.

[albionmoonlight]

Any VP pick cannot risk--at all--losing a D Senate seat. I mean, even if you take a D from a state with a D governor who can replace her with another D, you still need to make sure that the GOP can't keep it bottled up in litigation or something like that.

[ISiddiqui]

Whitmer and Klobuchar would be the best strategically.

Harris and Abrams would be more risky picks. But Abrams may help in places like Georgia (obviously) and North Carolina. Harris would be interesting (and those VP debates would be fun), but Biden doesn't need to solidify California and I don't know if Harris would energize the black vote.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Whitmer and Klobuchar would be the best strategically.

Harris and Abrams would be more risky picks. But Abrams may help in places like Georgia (obviously) and North Carolina. Harris would be interesting (and those VP debates would be fun), but Biden doesn't need to solidify California and I don't know if Harris would energize the black vote.

I'm leaning toward Harris because I think the party needs some energy and she'd bring it. It needs someone who can get on TV every day and blast out the message. We've seen Joe at this age and he just isn't going to be able to do it.

The downside of Klobuchar is you have to hope you don't lose that Senate seat. Plus she's a lot like Biden. Comes across as nice and folksy. I think the VP needs to be charging up the base and I just don't see that from her.

Whitmer is interesting and seems to be polling extremely well in a crucial state. Just don't know much about her. Would be skeptical of anyone who was part of a poor early state response.

I still think Warren would be his best pick. It'd be a bone toward the progressive wing of the party. She's really smart and could be put on TV every day blasting a message.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Whitmer and Klobuchar would be the best strategically.

Harris and Abrams would be more risky picks. But Abrams may help in places like Georgia (obviously) and North Carolina. Harris would be interesting (and those VP debates would be fun), but Biden doesn't need to solidify California and I don't know if Harris would energize the black vote.

I think it has to be a woman of color. Anyone else would be a mistake. Harris, Abrams, or a complete outlier (Susan Rice?)

[ISiddiqui]

I also realized a downside to Whitmer - if we are still fighting this pandemic into the fall, having a Governor take time out of that to campaign for VP would be a reaaaal bad look.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I also realized a downside to Whitmer - if we are still fighting this pandemic into the fall, having a Governor take time out of that to campaign for VP would be a reaaaal bad look.

I think that's a good point.

And you definitely can't risk losing a senate seat. I think the pick has to be Harris or Tammy Duckworth

[PilotMan]

I think it has to be Harris. Best option all around of those front and center in the convo.

[albionmoonlight]

What's the California procedure for replacing Harris? Are we sure we'd get a Dem in there pronto?