2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread - Page 66

ISiddiqui · 05-19-2020, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Two things are always true.

1 A more moderate candidate wins the Dem nomination.

2 The GOP will call any Dem nominee a far-left socialist.

Though 1 has only been a very recent phenomenon. Mondale was to the left of a decent number of his primary challengers. Dukakis was to the left of Gore but to the right of Jackson. Obama was to the left of Hillary Clinton on somethings but to the right of her on others (the individual mandate for one).

Now the farthest left candidate in a Democratic primary almost never wins, yes. I think McGovern was the last one who did that.

Arles · 05-19-2020, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

This may be the first time I've seen someone say Hillary Clinton was "laying low" in 2016. Campaigning in the wrong states, yes. Spending too much time with celebs, yes. But laying low?

And, not that I'll probably be able to convince you of this, but Clinton had more policy white papers than Warren did this year. However, the general election quickly because about personality over policy, so it didn't matter.

I think Hillary drew an inside straight on negatives:
1. She wasn't nearly as liberal as Bernie - so those voters were disappointed.
2. She had all the Clinton baggage with republicans (you can also factor in being a woman here - it's sad, but I think it played a part with some of them).
3. She kind of took the upper midwest for granted with campaigning. The real strategic error was her not focusing as much on Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

On paper, she was the right pick. I was excited to vote for her (and, pre Trump, I was a 50-50 dem voter on president). The result was disappointing, but I don't think future democratic nominees will have these problems (esp 2 and 3).

albionmoonlight · 05-20-2020, 09:53 AM

For those into wonky poll talk (and, if you aren't, have you noticed what thread you are in?), Harry Enten (of CNN, formally of 538) and Nate Cohen (of the NYT) are two guys who are very knowledgeable about this stuff, and they are both on twitter ragging on three polls out today (FL/AZ/VA) that show Biden up big over Trump. They are saying that these pollsters are not weighting by education, and if they did weight by education, the numbers would probably be about 4 points better for Trump (and, more importantly, better reflect how an election would actually go today).

All of which is to say that if/when you see the "Biden up huge in Florida!" headlines today, do not overreact to that.

Kodos · 05-20-2020, 10:52 AM

I will not rest easy until his oversized butt has been kicked to the curb.

I. J. Reilly · 05-20-2020, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos

I will not rest easy until his oversized butt has been kicked to the curb.

Morbidly obese butt, they say

Edward64 · 05-21-2020, 06:27 AM

Pelosi is much better at insults than Biden's "President Tweety". Not that we should be okay with her fat shaming ...

Kodos · 05-21-2020, 08:06 AM

I think in this case, fat shaming is more than appropriate. How many times has he belittled women who aren't up to his standard? (The Ivanka standard: "I have to want them as much as I want Ivanka.")

panerd · 05-21-2020, 08:19 AM

Just noting this for when the Trump supporters are kunckle-draggers and likely racist (of course everything is always racist) if Stacey Abrams gets the vice presidential nomination. It's okay if its Chris Christie or Trump being fat shamed... you know because you know the D/R paradigm.

albionmoonlight · 05-21-2020, 08:21 AM

Fat shaming is never ok.

Body shaming in general is never ok.

That Pelosi went instinctively went there betrays a nasty streak on her part that I dislike.

NobodyHere · 05-21-2020, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos

I think in this case, fat shaming is more than appropriate. How many times has he belittled women who aren't up to his standard? (The Ivanka standard: "I have to want them as much as I want Ivanka.")

That really just brings you down to his level.

JPhillips · 05-21-2020, 08:33 AM

Yeah. I think the better strategy is for leadership to continue to say they are working and ready to talk tot he President, but he's focused on petty grievances . If there are going to be insults, delegate that to a safe back-bencher.

Brian Swartz · 05-21-2020, 08:38 AM

Fat shaming is often a good thing IMO. I say that as a fat person who absolutely should be shamed for it (and is working on correcting it). There are many types of body shaming that are bad, but obesity is a massive problem literally and figuratively and is primarily caused by myopic, irresponsible behavior. Shaming that is absolutely appropriate and good for society and individuals.

bob · 05-21-2020, 08:42 AM

I can not for the life of me figure out why Stacey Abrams is being considered for VP. What experience does she have at all that says she is ready to potentially be president of the US, which is a distinct possibility given that her presidential running mate is 77.

JPhillips · 05-21-2020, 08:47 AM

She's clearly working for the job, but I wonder how much she's actually being considered. It seems to me that she's shown a great danger of trying to outshine Biden. I think the more you campaign for the job the less likely you'll actually get it.

Brian Swartz · 05-21-2020, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob

What experience does she have at all that says she is ready to potentially be president of the US, which is a distinct possibility given that her presidential running mate is 77.

I don't think this has anything to do with it. I think she's attractive to the progressive wing, and adds balance to the ticket as someone who is younger and a minority woman. I wouldn't look much further than that.

bob · 05-21-2020, 08:57 AM

Isn't there anyone on the progressive wing with some experience though?

ISiddiqui · 05-21-2020, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't think this has anything to do with it. I think she's attractive to the progressive wing, and adds balance to the ticket as someone who is younger and a minority woman. I wouldn't look much further than that.

Also she's a phenomenal speaker. When she was running for Governor, she gave me Obama vibes. I bought her book as well and it's really well written.

I don't think she should be on the ticket as VP. But the party does need to harness her fantastic speaking skills somehow.

sterlingice · 05-21-2020, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Also she's a phenomenal speaker. When she was running for Governor, she gave me Obama vibes. I bought her book as well and it's really well written.

I don't think she should be on the ticket as VP. But the party does need to harness her fantastic speaking skills somehow.

Isn't this where you book her for one of the nights of the convention to launch her onto national prominence (ala Obama in 2004) and help build up the bench a bit for 2024 and beyond?

SI

albionmoonlight · 05-21-2020, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Fat shaming is often a good thing IMO. I say that as a fat person who absolutely should be shamed for it (and is working on correcting it). There are many types of body shaming that are bad, but obesity is a massive problem literally and figuratively and is primarily caused by myopic, irresponsible behavior. Shaming that is absolutely appropriate and good for society and individuals.

If fat shaming worked, there’d be no overweight people. Because our culture constantly fat shames.

albionmoonlight · 05-21-2020, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Isn't this where you book her for one of the nights of the convention to launch her onto national prominence (ala Obama in 2004) and help build up the bench a bit for 2024 and beyond?

SI

Yup.

I think that it’s gonna be Harris, and that this is one of the easier VP picks to predict in a while.

Personally, I like Tammy Duckworth, but I don’t think she’s likely.

NobodyHere · 05-21-2020, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Fat shaming is often a good thing IMO. I say that as a fat person who absolutely should be shamed for it (and is working on correcting it). There are many types of body shaming that are bad, but obesity is a massive problem literally and figuratively and is primarily caused by myopic, irresponsible behavior. Shaming that is absolutely appropriate and good for society and individuals.

If fat shaming generally led to people making healthier decisions then I would agree with you. But in real life it's generally done with malicious intent, simply to make a person feel bad. It just causes depression in the shamed person.

If it works for you then fantastic but I think you're an outlier here.

P.S. Is calling someone an outlier considered "statistical shaming"?

spleen1015 · 05-21-2020, 10:12 AM

Stating that he is obese is not fat shaming, IMO. You're just stating a fact.

Calling him a fat fuck would be fat shaming in my book.

This fat shaming BS is like a lot of other things. Being fat is bad and a serious problem in the US. There are a lot of fat fucks out there, me included. Since there are a lot of us, it is bad to point it out.

One of the many reasons America is so fucked up.

Brian Swartz · 05-21-2020, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If fat shaming worked, there’d be no overweight people. Because our culture constantly fat shames.

I don't think it does, I think there's far more blowback against fat-shaming than actual fat-shaming. But also, if shaming doesn't work then why is it ok to shame other things? We shame for Trump (and so do I) for being … at least most of the things that he is. We shame racists, sexists, etc. on down the line. Are you really saying none of that does any good?

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

But in real life it's generally done with malicious intent, simply to make a person feel bad. It just causes depression in the shamed person.

A certain amount of depression and guilt is appropriate when somebody is engaging in self-destructive or otherwhise negative behavior. I think it's far more unhealthy to not call such things out, pretending the elephants in the room aren't really there, and just go the 'you're not ok but that's ok' route. That's like a parent allowing their kids to go play in traffic and not correct them because it seems too harsh. If the only thing you do is shaming then that's bad also - help, compassion, etc. need to be part of it as well - but none of that makes shaming in and of itself a bad thing.

JPhillips · 05-21-2020, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yup.

I think that it’s gonna be Harris, and that this is one of the easier VP picks to predict in a while.

Personally, I like Tammy Duckworth, but I don’t think she’s likely.

I like Duckworth a lot, but I'd hate to see what Trump and the alt-right say about her.

Edward64 · 05-21-2020, 10:21 AM

Trump certainly deserves it but it doesn't make it right. I will say that I took some childish delight in her comment and his reaction.

sterlingice · 05-21-2020, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yup.

I think that it’s gonna be Harris, and that this is one of the easier VP picks to predict in a while.

Personally, I like Tammy Duckworth, but I don’t think she’s likely.

I think it almost has to be Harris. The dems bench is so thin right now:

PredictIt

SI

JPhillips · 05-21-2020, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think it almost has to be Harris. The dems bench is so thin right now:

PredictIt

SI

How much of that, though, is due to Biden saying it will be a woman? Add in Castro, Booker, Pete, Inslee, Bennett, etc. and there are a bunch.

Jas_lov · 05-21-2020, 01:10 PM

Harris seems like the obvious safe choice that checks all the boxes. African American woman, not too old but has enough experience you would feel comfortable if something happened to Biden, can easily replace the Senate seat with a D, is good at debate/attack.

Ryche · 05-21-2020, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I like Duckworth a lot, but I'd hate to see what Trump and the alt-right say about her.

Really like Duckworth too. What a freaking contrast to Trump. Good luck attacking her. Harris seems obvious and logical though. Val Demings would be a dark horse.

Drake · 05-21-2020, 01:37 PM

My son's (22) assessment of Biden:

"I think he has dementia. But we've already seen that our country can keep running when the president has dementia, so I'm okay voting for him. It can't be worse than it is now."

NobodyHere · 05-21-2020, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake

My son's (22) assessment of Biden:

"I think he has dementia. But we've already seen that our country can keep running when the president has dementia, so I'm okay voting for him. It can't be worse than it is now."

That's probably a more a acute analysis than anything I've ever seen on cable news.

RainMaker · 05-21-2020, 01:53 PM

There were a dozen candidates the party could have gotten behind and they chose the one with dementia. I swear the Democrats love losing.

NobodyHere · 05-21-2020, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There were a dozen candidates the party could have gotten behind and they chose the one with dementia. I swear the Democrats love losing.

Maybe they just want to copy the Republicans winning strategy.

Kodos · 05-21-2020, 02:02 PM

Maybe we're going for a "fight fire with fire" theme, but instead it's "fight dementia with dementia".

Ben E Lou · 05-21-2020, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kodos

I think in this case, fat shaming is more than appropriate. How many times has he belittled women who aren't up to his standard?

"When they go low, we go lower!"

Got it.

ISiddiqui · 05-21-2020, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

"When they go low, we go lower!"

Got it.

Well, that's probably not lower. And plenty of Democrats, especially after the 2016 election, did not think Michelle Obama's words there were the right strategy. There are still a lot of Democrats who bemoan not fighting as dirty as the GOP does.

Ben E Lou · 05-21-2020, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well, that's probably not lower. And plenty of Democrats, especially after the 2016 election, did not think Michelle Obama's words there were the right strategy. There are still a lot of Democrats who bemoan not fighting as dirty as the GOP does.

Oh, I'm well aware of that.

Mama repeatedly told me when I was a child that "two wrongs don't make a right." I believed it then, and I believe it all the more as an adult.

Kodos · 05-21-2020, 02:52 PM

I don't think calling him "morbidly obese" is worse or even on par with many of the things he's said about any number of people. He is by definition obese. I grant that the "morbidly" part was a bit over the top and unnecessary, and I honestly wish Pelosi hadn't said it. I don't want it to be a rallying cry like Hillary's "basket of deplorables" became. But I did literally laugh out loud when I heard it the first time. So now I'll hop into the basket too, I guess.

GrantDawg · 05-21-2020, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Also she's a phenomenal speaker. When she was running for Governor, she gave me Obama vibes. I bought her book as well and it's really well written.

I don't think she should be on the ticket as VP. But the party does need to harness her fantastic speaking skills somehow.

When you have someone with as much "experience" (ie. ancient) as Biden, I think it fine to go with someone younger and can bring more energy to the base. Harris has the drawback of prosecutor history that makes her less attractive to very people you want to energize. I am not saying it has to be Abrams, but some one much younger, preferably of color, that can handle herself on the biggest of stages. She can learn the rest once she is in the White House. She will definitely be surrounded with experienced hands to help her. I have seen people equate picking Abrams with Quayle and Palin, and that just proves they have no idea who she is.

ISiddiqui · 05-21-2020, 03:07 PM

To be fair to Palin, when she was selected she was a very popular Governor of Alaska, and her first speech after being tagged as VP was a barnburner (I was fairly impressed, I remember). She just got too popular too fast and bought into her own hype.

QuikSand · 05-21-2020, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I have seen people equate picking Abrams with Quayle and Palin, and that just proves they have no idea who she is.

Agreed... but tolerance of "stupid" is not evenly distributed across ideologies.

Brian Swartz · 05-21-2020, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I have seen people equate picking Abrams with Quayle and Palin, and that just proves they have no idea who she is.

It also shows they have no idea who Quayle and Palin are.

bronconick · 05-21-2020, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob

I can not for the life of me figure out why Stacey Abrams is being considered for VP. What experience does she have at all that says she is ready to potentially be president of the US, which is a distinct possibility given that her presidential running mate is 77.

After electing a reality TV host/failed businessman, it's pretty clear that "experience" is pretty low on the totem pole for importance.

NobodyHere · 05-21-2020, 08:17 PM

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-r...uchar-vetting/

Not that this is a surprise to anyone.

Galaril · 05-21-2020, 09:11 PM

There are a few being reported to have reached the deeper vetting level- Demmings, and Klobuchar so far.

RainMaker · 05-22-2020, 09:34 AM

Interesting interview this morning.

Ben E Lou · 05-22-2020, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

During the contested primary, Biden laid low while every other candidate fought for attention.

Then people started voting.

And Biden won easily.

He lost the twitter primary, but won the actual primary.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Interesting interview this morning.

Just about every time Biden opens his mouth, "Lay low" sounds like a better strategy. *shurg* #YouAintBlack

QuikSand · 05-22-2020, 10:07 AM

such an obvious hamfisted pander, ugh

QuikSand · 05-22-2020, 10:08 AM

my PredictIt account's gonna blow up if Val's it... bought at 2-3-4c

albionmoonlight · 05-22-2020, 10:11 AM

I've got some Duckworth at 5c

My theory being that she checks all the boxes. And she's from Illinois. Which means that she's got an Obama connection. And when Biden calls Obama to get his thoughts (which I think he will), Obama will put in a good word for her.

In (probably) related news, I routinely lose money on PredictIt.

05-20-2020, 10:52 AM	#3254
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	I will not rest easy until his oversized butt has been kicked to the curb. __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

05-21-2020, 08:06 AM	#3257
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	I think in this case, fat shaming is more than appropriate. How many times has he belittled women who aren't up to his standard? (The Ivanka standard: "I have to want them as much as I want Ivanka.") __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties. Last edited by Kodos : 05-21-2020 at 08:07 AM.

05-21-2020, 08:33 AM	#3261
JPhillips General Manager Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Yeah. I think the better strategy is for leadership to continue to say they are working and ready to talk tot he President, but he's focused on petty grievances . If there are going to be insults, delegate that to a safe back-bencher. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

05-21-2020, 08:47 AM	#3264
JPhillips General Manager Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	She's clearly working for the job, but I wonder how much she's actually being considered. It seems to me that she's shown a great danger of trying to outshine Biden. I think the more you campaign for the job the less likely you'll actually get it. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

05-21-2020, 10:12 AM	#3272
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	Stating that he is obese is not fat shaming, IMO. You're just stating a fact. Calling him a fat fuck would be fat shaming in my book. This fat shaming BS is like a lot of other things. Being fat is bad and a serious problem in the US. There are a lot of fat fucks out there, me included. Since there are a lot of us, it is bad to point it out. One of the many reasons America is so fucked up. __________________ Why choose failure when success is an option?

05-20-2020, 09:53 AM	#3253
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	For those into wonky poll talk (and, if you aren't, have you noticed what thread you are in?), Harry Enten (of CNN, formally of 538) and Nate Cohen (of the NYT) are two guys who are very knowledgeable about this stuff, and they are both on twitter ragging on three polls out today (FL/AZ/VA) that show Biden up big over Trump. They are saying that these pollsters are not weighting by education, and if they did weight by education, the numbers would probably be about 4 points better for Trump (and, more importantly, better reflect how an election would actually go today). All of which is to say that if/when you see the "Biden up huge in Florida!" headlines today, do not overreact to that.

05-21-2020, 06:27 AM	#3256
Edward64 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2005	Pelosi is much better at insults than Biden's "President Tweety". Not that we should be okay with her fat shaming ...

05-21-2020, 08:19 AM	#3258
panerd Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: St. Louis	Just noting this for when the Trump supporters are kunckle-draggers and likely racist (of course everything is always racist) if Stacey Abrams gets the vice presidential nomination. It's okay if its Chris Christie or Trump being fat shamed... you know because you know the D/R paradigm.

05-21-2020, 08:21 AM	#3259
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	Fat shaming is never ok. Body shaming in general is never ok. That Pelosi went instinctively went there betrays a nasty streak on her part that I dislike.

05-21-2020, 08:38 AM	#3262
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Fat shaming is often a good thing IMO. I say that as a fat person who absolutely should be shamed for it (and is working on correcting it). There are many types of body shaming that are bad, but obesity is a massive problem literally and figuratively and is primarily caused by myopic, irresponsible behavior. Shaming that is absolutely appropriate and good for society and individuals.

05-21-2020, 08:42 AM	#3263
bob College Starter Join Date: Oct 2004	I can not for the life of me figure out why Stacey Abrams is being considered for VP. What experience does she have at all that says she is ready to potentially be president of the US, which is a distinct possibility given that her presidential running mate is 77.

05-21-2020, 08:57 AM	#3266
bob College Starter Join Date: Oct 2004	Isn't there anyone on the progressive wing with some experience though?

05-21-2020, 10:21 AM	#3275
Edward64 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2005	Trump certainly deserves it but it doesn't make it right. I will say that I took some childish delight in her comment and his reaction.

05-21-2020, 01:10 PM	#3278
Jas_lov College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	Harris seems like the obvious safe choice that checks all the boxes. African American woman, not too old but has enough experience you would feel comfortable if something happened to Biden, can easily replace the Senate seat with a D, is good at debate/attack.

05-21-2020, 01:37 PM	#3280
Drake assmaster Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Bloomington, IN	My son's (22) assessment of Biden: "I think he has dementia. But we've already seen that our country can keep running when the president has dementia, so I'm okay voting for him. It can't be worse than it is now."

05-21-2020, 01:53 PM	#3282
RainMaker General Manager Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	There were a dozen candidates the party could have gotten behind and they chose the one with dementia. I swear the Democrats love losing.

05-21-2020, 02:02 PM	#3284
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	Maybe we're going for a "fight fire with fire" theme, but instead it's "fight dementia with dementia". __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

05-21-2020, 02:52 PM	#3288
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	I don't think calling him "morbidly obese" is worse or even on par with many of the things he's said about any number of people. He is by definition obese. I grant that the "morbidly" part was a bit over the top and unnecessary, and I honestly wish Pelosi hadn't said it. I don't want it to be a rallying cry like Hillary's "basket of deplorables" became. But I did literally laugh out loud when I heard it the first time. So now I'll hop into the basket too, I guess. __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

05-21-2020, 03:07 PM	#3290
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	To be fair to Palin, when she was selected she was a very popular Governor of Alaska, and her first speech after being tagged as VP was a barnburner (I was fairly impressed, I remember). She just got too popular too fast and bought into her own hype. __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

05-21-2020, 08:17 PM	#3294
NobodyHere Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2013	https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-r...uchar-vetting/ Not that this is a surprise to anyone. __________________ "I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" Last edited by NobodyHere : 05-22-2020 at 09:57 AM.

05-21-2020, 09:11 PM	#3295
Galaril Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2004	There are a few being reported to have reached the deeper vetting level- Demmings, and Klobuchar so far. Last edited by Galaril : 05-21-2020 at 09:12 PM.

05-22-2020, 09:34 AM	#3296
RainMaker General Manager Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Chicago, IL	Interesting interview this morning.

05-22-2020, 10:07 AM	#3298
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	such an obvious hamfisted pander, ugh

05-22-2020, 10:08 AM	#3299
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	my PredictIt account's gonna blow up if Val's it... bought at 2-3-4c

05-22-2020, 10:11 AM	#3300
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	I've got some Duckworth at 5c My theory being that she checks all the boxes. And she's from Illinois. Which means that she's got an Obama connection. And when Biden calls Obama to get his thoughts (which I think he will), Obama will put in a good word for her. In (probably) related news, I routinely lose money on PredictIt.

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