2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[ISiddiqui]

Re: education

https://joebiden.com/beyondhs/

Under the income based payment plans, there is a plan for forgiveness after 20 years of paying 5% of income. Apparently existing loans may apply as well. But it doesn't seem like a major forgiveness policy like Sanders and Warren wanted.

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[ISiddiqui]

Fwiw, here is a good summary of the main focus of Biden's platform from back in late May (a lot taken from his speeches):

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/26/212576...nomy-tax-plans

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[ISiddiqui]

Oh (triple Dola) just saw a Biden ad on CNN which was all about his Covid plan. Didn't mention Trump once (although people are definitely going to compare Biden's plan to Trump's lack of one)

Edit: this is the ad - Real Plans :60 | Joe Biden For President 2020 - YouTube

Here is another ad I've seen: https://youtu.be/Oc6Y_ye7QCg

I think the anti-Trump ads are mostly Lincoln Project and the ilk

[Carman Bulldog]

I think one thing to remember in regards to polls is that there is a decent probability that people are less likely to admit that they will be voting Trump this time around than previously.

This issue came up a lot on the recent Slow Burn podcast about David Duke, who would consistently outperform his poll numbers.

With Trump, there may have been people willing to admit in 2016 polls that they were voting for him. Those same people may still plan on voting for Trump this time around but may be be less likely to admit to same.

That could potentially skew the numbers to make it seem as if the gap between Biden-Trump is larger than the gap between Hillary-Trump.

[ISiddiqui]

There are a lot less undecided voters this go around than 2016. And that hasn't been my impression at all: Trump voters are far more likely to tell you that they are. And I definitely don't think they are scared to tell a pollster about that.

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[sterlingice]

I think there are a number of Trump voters who "don't trust pollsters" and won't talk to them

SI

[Atocep]

A lot of polls made changes after 2016 that 538 claims may actually show Trump performing better than he actually is. They'v debunked the shy trump voter myth multiple times, but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Atocep

A lot of polls made changes after 2016 that 538 claims may actually show Trump performing better than he actually is. They'v debunked the shy trump voter myth multiple times, but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.

The voter suppression angle is such a wild card. Especially if it's well targeted (it's Trump so it's probably somewhat incompetent but he's also surrounded by some pretty evil folks who have varying levels of competency)

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Atocep

but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.

I had wondered if they could go this cycle and just not publish a model.

It would have been a bold move to say that the President and his imps have told us, repeatedly, that they are going to suppress votes. There's no real way to model that, so we can't. But publishing a model like everything is fine provides a false sense of normalcy. So we just aren't going to publish one and instead focus our writings on highlighting voter suppression efforts.

[Lathum]

If you’re ashamed to tell people who you voted for maybe you should question if you should be voting for them.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

There are a lot less undecided voters this go around than 2016. And that hasn't been my impression at all: Trump voters are far more likely to tell you that they are. And I definitely don't think they are scared to tell a pollster about that.

Think about it from this perspective...

If a Trump voter in 2016 was afraid to admit to pollsters that they were voting for Trump then, wouldn't it seem plausible that they would be even more afraid to admit to pollsters in 2020 that they are again voting for Trump?

Originally Posted by Atocep

A lot of polls made changes after 2016 that 538 claims may actually show Trump performing better than he actually is. They'v debunked the shy trump voter myth multiple times, but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.

Not completely true. They believed that there were shy voters early in the campaign who started to come out near the end of the campaign. Therefore they did not believe it was a factor when comparing the final polls to the actual results. Also, it was well documented (and noted by FiveThirtyEight) that Trump voters were more likely to admit to robocalls that they were voting Trump compared to a human on the other end, particularly early in the campaign. This also supports the shy voter theory.

[ISiddiqui]

If a Trump voter in 2016 was afraid to admit to pollsters that they were voting for Trump then, wouldn't it seem plausible that they would be even more afraid to admit to pollsters in 2020 that they are again voting for Trump?

Not in the slightest. In my experience, Trump supporters are far more open about their support now than they were back then.

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[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

If a Trump voter in 2016 was afraid to admit to pollsters that they were voting for Trump then, wouldn't it seem plausible that they would be even more afraid to admit to pollsters in 2020 that they are again voting for Trump?

In 2016, Trump was a "crazy" candidate who had no chance of winning. You were not serious if you supported him.

In 2020, he's been the President for 3.5 years and has thus been normalized. It isn't "crazy" or "not serious" to support Trump. It means you tend to vote Republican--nothing more or less.

I am sure that the shy Trump voter exists. But I think that there would be a lot less of them in 2020 than 2016.

[Ben E Lou]

My neighborhood/part of town is heavily white, middle/upper-middle class, and college grad or more. We're barely--as in less than half a mile--inside the Greensboro city limits. It's the classic "suburban voter" area that keeps coming up. In 2016, my precinct--and, I'm virtually certain, pretty much every surrounding precinct--went for Rubio in the primaries, Trump in the general. But here's the thing: at NO point in 2016, and at NO point in 2020, has there been a SINGLE Trump yard sign that I've seen, and I've walked, run, driven, or biked through virtually all of the significant-length roads within a 3-5 mile radius of my house. Right now there are *dozens* of signs for Dan Forest (R governor candidate,) quite a few signs for other downballot Rs, a small handful of Biden/downballot Dem signs, but ZERO, ZILCH, NADA for Trump. I've literally never seen a MAGA hat in my part of town, nary a bumper sticker at the grocery store that's a mile from my house, not even at the Walmart near us. But if I go 5-10 more miles out from town into the area that's rural, sure, plenty of Trump signs, MAGA hats, bumper stickers, etc. And it was just like this in 2016--in an area that did vote for Trump. Biden will pull some of these folks, but the area probably still goes for Trump.

But clearly, the nearby folks who will vote for him--though likely in the majority--certainly don't seem to be proud of it, willing to let other people know, or wear it as a badge of honor like the true MAGAs do.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Biden will win the majority, but Trump will win the electoral.

Same shit different day.

Same question as always; why haven't these motivated Trump voters you spoke of shown up in a single solitary election since 2016 or in the polling. Mid-terms, spec. elections, etc. I'm all for alternative theories of what might happen, but absent any evidence there's no reason to take them seriously.

[Atocep]

I'm sure there are shy Trump voters out there, but I believe it's more shyness at work and around neighbors than with pollsters. I don't believe there's enough to make a meaningful dent when it comes to the election and it's probably covered in the changes to how suburban voters are weighted based off of 2016 (which 538 believes was likely a 1 time thing and shouldn't have resulted in methodology changes).

Based on studies we can show people are willing to lie about their income and overall happiness to pollsters. We've yet to see anyone able to capture the shy Trump voter as anything more than maybe a percentage point on the very high end.

[molson]

Has anyone here ever been polled? I would never answer a call from a number I didn't recognize. And I don't think I'd ever take the time to answer multiple questions. And if a pollster ever did get a hold of me and ask me one of those questions like, "Do you think Corona beer causes the Coronavius?", I'd definitely say yes.

On a completely different note, Idaho doesn't matter as an presidential election state of course, but the Trump enthusiasm is off the charts. Rallies of hundreds of people every weekend. Signs and banners flying off of pickup trucks everywhere. Of course, BLM and more generic progressive rallies are also bigger than I've ever seen here. I still have managed not to personally know any big Trump supporters myself. Though my neighbor Gary just put up many Trump flags. That was disappointing. I wouldn't have guessed it.

Then I realize that most people here whose political affiliation I don't know are Trump supporters. At least most people over 40. Which is just kind of strange. I was at a Zoom trivia night thing we've been doing, maybe 15-20 people, my peers locally, zero Trump supporters as far as I know. And most of them are outwardly anti-Trump, and you just kind of assume everyone who drifts in and out of that social circle is the same. It would be very surprising if any of them, or anybody they brought with them to any social event, expressed pro-Trump views. That's dozens and dozens of people. It truly is 2 different Americas, even in a state like Idaho.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by molson

but the Trump enthusiasm is off the charts. Rallies of hundreds of people every weekend. Signs and banners flying off of pickup trucks everywhere.

Normally, the supporters of the party in power get complacent, while the supporters of the party out of power have enthusiasm.

One of the best things that the GOP and affiliated media has done is keep enthusiasm sky high, even as they are the party in power.

The 2018 midterms were great for the Dems, but GOP turnout was also really good. It took exceptional turnout from the Dems to win those elections.

Props to the GOP for keeping its supporters energized.

[GrantDawg]

My area is sort of best described as rural/suburban. The country divides very much East-West, with the west side being very racially diverse and the east being more wealthy and white. I would say there is a high chance Biden wins the county. Hillary won in 2016. Yet, I see no Biden signs anywhere, but Trump signs, flags, hats, etc. Everywhere.

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[AlexB]

[albionmoonlight]

You may not like the personality but he has been effective. The alternative for 2020 is totally not acceptable. This is a binary choice and Biden is an absolute puppet. He is not the same man from just 8 years ago. The far left WILL be running him. That is not something that my family or business can take

This is from a family member responding to an anti-Trump post.

I think that it probably sums up the best pro-Trump argument that I've seen:

(1) Trump is not a likable person, but his policies are good
(2) Biden seems moderate, but AOC/Bernie/Warren/#BLM will really be running the show (dovetails nice with the "Biden's going senile" meme, too)
(3) This is the most important election of our lifetimes, and if the Dems win, everything will be destroyed.

I mean, it isn't a great argument, but it makes sense in a way that "the virus isn't real" does not.

[PilotMan]

I believe that point (2) was also used on Obama for all 8 years. It went from he's a puppet of Socialists, to he's a Socialist.

[GrantDawg]

And the socialist say Obama was a Republican.

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[Lathum]

I’m sure it’s been discussed but how many people stayed home in 2016 because they thought Hillary was going to win going away?

[ISiddiqui]

I've heard this ridiculous "Biden is a puppet" thing (to which I responded with a meme where Trump is on strings that Putin is wielding). Obviously these people didn't watch Biden's speech at the DNC. They have no idea how much progressives are holding their nose to vote for Biden and how Biden's positions are far more moderate than AOCs. But they won't listen to that. They think going back to Obama level tax rates is "socialist".

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[Brian Swartz]

I don't hold the Biden is a puppet view but that's not a good argument against it at all. All politicians lie, Biden is just saying what he has to in order to be elected and that's why he won the primary as a moderate, etc.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I've heard this ridiculous "Biden is a puppet" thing (to which I responded with a meme where Trump is on strings that Putin is wielding). Obviously these people didn't watch Biden's speech at the DNC. They have no idea how much progressives are holding their nose to vote for Biden and how Biden's positions are far more moderate than AOCs. But they won't listen to that. They think going back to Obama level tax rates is "socialist".

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It is . . . interesting to contrast the "Biden is a SOCIALIST" talking points with the actual left-wing/socialist/idiot extremists I see on Twitter who are so into how clever they are whenever they post some version of "This Fall, you can either vote for the senile old racist Republican who is in the pocket of Wall Street . . . or you can vote for Trump."

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't hold the Biden is a puppet view but that's not a good argument against it at all. All politicians lie, Biden is just saying what he has to in order to be elected and that's why he won the primary as a moderate, etc.

That starts to sound like QAnon stuff though. If he's a puppet of Sanders and AOC, why not just... Have him back Sanders once he's cleared the moderates out?

Not to mention we all know Biden. He's been a moderate forever.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't hold the Biden is a puppet view but that's not a good argument against it at all. All politicians lie, Biden is just saying what he has to in order to be elected and that's why he won the primary as a moderate, etc.

He's been doing a damn good job of hiding his socialist beliefs for his entire career. My guess is he dies without showing us how radical he really is! He's just that devious.

[ISiddiqui]

I just saw a negative ad from Biden on YouTube (though a good one) so I guess they are also getting into the anti Trump stuff and not just leaving it to Lincoln Project:

https://youtu.be/BUNfZhEjFfA

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[Radii]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is just so hard to get youth turn-out. There is always a promise, but rarely does it deliver. I think nationally it has just been Obama and JFK that had enough of a youth surge to move the needle.

Young people who are at least somewhat engaged seem excited about AOC and other young people that were elected to congress in the last couple elections, especially about the diversity in the House. It seems like in a large number of districts an appeal could be made to continue/re-inforce the "blue wave" from 2018, and while you're at it, vote for the slightly less gross white guy for president too, I mean, why not, you're already there.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Radii

Young people who are at least somewhat engaged seem excited about AOC and other young people that were elected to congress in the last couple elections, especially about the diversity in the House. It seems like in a large number of districts an appeal could be made to continue/re-inforce the "blue wave" from 2018, and while you're at it, vote for the slightly less gross white guy for president too, I mean, why not, you're already there.

2018 turnout increases were mainly pushed by moderate Dems challenging Republican Congresspeople. One would think the 2020 Primaries would have made this obvious.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Radii

Young people who are at least somewhat engaged seem excited about AOC and other young people that were elected to congress in the last couple elections, especially about the diversity in the House. It seems like in a large number of districts an appeal could be made to continue/re-inforce the "blue wave" from 2018, and while you're at it, vote for the slightly less gross white guy for president too, I mean, why not, you're already there.

That actually might be a good strategy, but I don't know how you sell it. "Come vote for this cool person for house of Representatives, and also this old dude." It probably is an argument that more money should be diverted for the top of the ticket to the lower level races.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I just saw a negative ad from Biden on YouTube (though a good one) so I guess they are also getting into the anti Trump stuff and not just leaving it to Lincoln Project:

Trump's Boycott - Goodyear OH | Joe Biden For President 2020 - YouTube

Trump attacking a large american company in a battleground state is a great callout for Biden. I love that they don't mention Trump at all in the earlier ads about COVID and looking to future technologies, there's no need to do that at all, just stating a common sense idea separates him from Trump for anyone still willing to listen. But the GoodYear issue specifically where Trump loses his shit at a US company for petty/personal reasons or to "get the libtards" to make his base happy is perfect.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

2018 turnout increases were mainly pushed by moderate Dems challenging Republican Congresspeople. One would think the 2020 Primaries would have made this obvious.

Sure, but if you're going to make a run at young people, showing that some folks like them (and not only old white guys) have ACTUALLY been elected and are actually making a difference may be a way to get some eyes. I dunno, maybe nothing at all would work, but this feels better to me than anything at all about Biden.

[Ben E Lou]

Will remote learning cause an uptick in college kids voting this year?

[RainMaker]

This is why it is dumb to relentlessly pander to Republicans in this race.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Will remote learning cause an uptick in college kids voting this year?

Do they have a reason to vote? I'm sure most hate Trump, but Biden has likely had a more negative impact on their life.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Do they have a reason to vote? I'm sure most hate Trump, but Biden has likely had a more negative impact on their life.

Why would anyone not have a reason to vote? Regardless of who you vote for.

[RainMaker]

Well Trump is a nutjob so I can see not voting for him. And Biden is the one who is going to help stiff them with unforgivable student loans. So unless you fancy a 3rd party candidate or care about the local races, what motivation do college kids have to show up in force?

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Well Trump is a nutjob so I can see not voting for him. And Biden is the one who is going to help stiff them with unforgivable student loans. So unless you fancy a 3rd party candidate or care about the local races, what motivation do college kids have to show up in force?

I don't know, maybe having a voice in their future. Even if they vote third party get involved and take the time to educate themselves to make informed decisions about their community and country. Hell, we already have enough middle aged folks that don't have a deep understanding of the issues, are too lazy to research and fact check. Or, just so embedded in party lines that they would vote for Satan if that was the only choice with their party next to his name.

Never hurts to start early so we don't foster another generation of ignorant voters.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I don't know, maybe having a voice in their future. Even if they vote third party get involved and take the time to educate themselves to make informed decisions about their community and country. Hell, we already have enough middle aged folks that don't have a deep understanding of the issues, are too lazy to research and fact check. Or, just so embedded in party lines that they would vote for Satan if that was the only choice with their party next to his name.

Never hurts to start early so we don't foster another generation of ignorant voters.

I understand that everyone should vote. I'm just saying in our reality, people usually have to be motivated to do it. Obama was an engaging person for young voters and they showed up. Hillary wasn't.

Maybe the social activism will cause people to get involved and vote, but I can also see how young college students would view this as two old dudes who don't give a shit about them and stay home.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I understand that everyone should vote. I'm just saying in our reality, people usually have to be motivated to do it. Obama was an engaging person for young voters and they showed up. Hillary wasn't.

Maybe the social activism will cause people to get involved and vote, but I can also see how young college students would view this as two old dudes who don't give a shit about them and stay home.

No, I see that too, I just hope that there is more forward thinking and that does not happen. We both know one thing we cannot afford right now is apathy. But, we will see.

[GrantDawg]

What? How exactly is Trump better than Biden on student loans?

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[JPhillips]

18-29 turnout in 2016 was better than Obama in 2012 and trailed only 2008 and 2004 in Presidential elections since 1988.

[GrantDawg]

Biden wants to make two year community colleges and work training programs free. Four year colleges free for people making under 125k. Increase Pell Grant. Also, tie repayment of loans to salaries, and give forgiveness progams for community work. And Trump wants to do jack-all.

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[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

What? How exactly is Trump better than Biden on student loans?

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i think rainmaker is saying he thinks Biden's promise there falls flat, which is really more contingent on the Senate control IMO.

[GrantDawg]

And electing Trump will be better?

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

18-29 turnout in 2016 was better than Obama in 2012 and trailed only 2008 and 2004 in Presidential elections since 1988.

And Clinton had less support among it and 3rd parties got more support.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

i think rainmaker is saying he thinks Biden's promise there falls flat, which is really more contingent on the Senate control IMO.

No. Biden was a huge supporter of the bill that stripped bankruptcy protections from student loans. Broke ranks with Democrats to do it. Led to the student loan debt problem we see today.