2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

No. Biden was a huge supporter of the bill that stripped bankruptcy protections from student loans. Broke ranks with Democrats to do it. Led to the student loan debt problem we see today.

And his position has changed and will give much more to the student than they will ever get from Trump.

[GrantDawg]

And now regrets and wants to change it. But he did something wrong once, so he must be burned as a witch.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

And now regrets and wants to change it. But he did something wrong once, so he must be burned as a witch.

Once? Come on. Crime bill, Iraq, there has been a lot of major issues Joe Biden has been wrong about in his career.

The argument for Biden is that he has empathy (or can act like he does). That he'll hopefully put in place competent people instead of family and grifters. This should be enough for most people against Trump. Lets not re-write history and pretend he didn't spend decades in the Senate sucking off every bank and credit card company that crossed his path.

[ISiddiqui]

The thing about the Crime Bill which I find interesting is that people on the left generally get quiet when it's noted that than Congressperson Bernie Sanders also voted in favor of the Crime Bill (and the Congregational Black Caucus was for it).

A big mistake but let's not pretend Biden was terribly alone in that decision on the left.

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[RainMaker]

I think it was bad that Bernie and others voted for it too.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

OK, it's time to retire the phrase "This is the most important election of our lifetime." This worn out cliche is trotted out ad nauseam every election cycle. I've heard this so much over the years that I'm starting to think I'm immortal.

“This is the most important election in the history of our country,” Trump said. “This election will decide whether we save the American Dream or whether we allow a socialist agenda to demolish our cherished destiny.”

Credit to Vic, here.

I was a bit skeptical, but this is apparently, once again, The Most Important Election Of Our Lifetime. The President himself says so.

[RainMaker]

Minnesota polls not looking as good for Biden of late and he is behind where Hillary was in battleground states at this point.

[QuikSand]

This "scare the suburbs" stuff is good and effective... in related news, people are awful

[sterlingice]

More scared of dark people than a virus, as long as they time the scare right?

SI

[bhlloy]

Just reading 538 and that they expect the election night results and polls to overwhelmingly be pro-Trump due to the mail-in vote split they are seeing polling Dems vs Republicans, no matter what the overall election result ends up being.

This isn't going to end up going well, is it? Not that it ever was, but the howling if Trump is (unofficially) over 300 EVs at midnight on election night and then Biden wins it a few days later. It's going to be an absolute shitshow and it's going to make Bush vs Gore look like child's play.

[Brian Swartz]

If so, I think that makes the news services analyzing the results more interesting. If we have a good handle on the % of people voting by mail, how does that affect how long they wait before calling a state? Could see a much bigger split than usual potentially between news sources in terms of when they have the confidence to do that.

[sterlingice]

2016 felt like it took a /long/ time to call some states as they were really wary about what they were seeing.

Then again, if Fox does one thing and, say, NBC does another...


SI

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Just reading 538 and that they expect the election night results and polls to overwhelmingly be pro-Trump due to the mail-in vote split they are seeing polling Dems vs Republicans, no matter what the overall election result ends up being.

This isn't going to end up going well, is it? Not that it ever was, but the howling if Trump is (unofficially) over 300 EVs at midnight on election night and then Biden wins it a few days later. It's going to be an absolute shitshow and it's going to make Bush vs Gore look like child's play.

Ugh, that makes sense, and I'm not at all looking forward to it.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

This "scare the suburbs" stuff is good and effective... in related news, people are awful

But the election is still so far away. I can't imagine Kenosha will be the thing even by the time of the first debate. In November we'll be looking back at the end of August as a golden age of peace and naivete.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Minnesota polls not looking as good for Biden of late and he is behind where Hillary was in battleground states at this point.

I am not doubting you, but where are you seeing that?

[RainMaker]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

This "scare the suburbs" stuff is good and effective... in related news, people are awful

Biden with a good response:

Biden: 'Burning down communities is not protest' | TheHill

I think this scare the suburbs stuff tends to not work well that well against Joe Biden and "she's a Cop" Kamala Harris all that well.

[albionmoonlight]

Thanks for sharing. I knew things were looking less rosy for Biden over the last few weeks. I did not realize that he had dipped below Clinton's pace.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Thanks for sharing. I knew things were looking less rosy for Biden over the last few weeks. I did not realize that he had dipped below Clinton's pace.

I will note that 538 still had Biden at 69% of victory (which is a bit less than July true) and that bakes in some of the lessons from 2016

2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

[bhlloy]

Yeah, and a lot of those battleground changes on RCP are driven by polls by one particular R leaning group, who are consistently at least 5 points more red than the others (including presidential and senate races I looked at). It's possible they are ahead of the curve but far more possible it's just a poll that strongly leans one way.

Don't get me wrong. I'm driving the "polls are going to miss again and Trump will win" bus for a while now, but I don't think the doom meister is necessarily accurately representing the picture right now.

[JPhillips]

There are only 3 polls in MN since July, all by different pollsters, so it's hard to know how much of the difference is methodology and how much is real tightening. The small numbers of state polls really make it hard to know what's going on.

[albionmoonlight]

Re: Shy Trump Voters.

FWIW, I was walking the dog today and consciously paying attention to signs in yards/windows/etc., and my impression is that there are more Trump signs and more Biden signs than there were either Trump or Clinton signs last year.

Also, there were more non-candidate political signs (Black Lives Matter, etc.) than I have ever remembered seeing before.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There are only 3 polls in MN since July, all by different pollsters, so it's hard to know how much of the difference is methodology and how much is real tightening. The small numbers of state polls really make it hard to know what's going on.

The conventions are over, and we have a month before the first debate.

I hope that the high-quality pollsters get out there in a couple of weeks and give us a good pre-debate snapshot.

[RainMaker]

Biden gave a good speech today but I really think they can't keep letting Republicans drive the narrative. Can't keep talking about protests every day and having to denounce constantly.

He should get up every day and tweet the number of deaths the day before from Covid and list the death tolls in other countries. Show the world how incompetent this country is and how much preventable death is happening.

[albionmoonlight]

I know that obsessing over daily poll movement is not healthy.

But, man, I am obsessing over daily poll movement. And Biden keeps creeping down the 538 predictor. Point by point.

Distressing.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I know that obsessing over daily poll movement is not healthy.

But, man, I am obsessing over daily poll movement. And Biden keeps creeping down the 538 predictor. Point by point.

Distressing.

Hopefully you feel better today as Biden has increased a point .

[Brian Swartz]

Repeat after me:

"My life is not determined by who wins elections. My life is not determined by who wins elections. My life is not determined by who wins elections"

[RainMaker]

I still think he needs to hammer home these Covid numbers every single day. It is insane we have 1000 people dying while other countries are in single digits. I saw Iowa has more deaths a day than the entire country of Germany.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Repeat after me:

"My life is not determined by who wins elections. My life is not determined by who wins elections. My life is not determined by who wins elections"

Tell that to 200,000 dead folks.

[ISiddiqui]

It appears Biden-Harris campaign raised more than $300 million in August, which shatters the previous record of ~$200mil in a month when Obama ran in 2008.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/u...gtype=Homepage

That should buy a lot of ads.

[JPhillips]

I find the whole campaign finance system profoundly depressing.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Tell that to 200,000 dead folks.

Millions of Americans die every year and it's not knowable how many of those 200k would have died if someone else had been President, or how many more/less would have died based on their actions/inactions on other issues. We can guess at it, but we don't really know. Meanwhile those 200k constitute less than a tenth of a percent of the population. The average person will go on living their life much like they have been regardless of who wins.

Perspective is my only point here. The election matters, elections have consequences, but society & life will go on regardless of the outcome. We aren't so fragile that a single president can break the country.

[JPhillips]

Life will go on is a pretty low bar. Right now we have 10% unemployment. 200000 dead and who knows how many with long-term health consequences. A devastated restaurant industry. Schools and colleges unable to open. Protests and riots in cities all over America. Kids are in cages if they are lucky and permanently lost and separated from their families if they aren't.

Life will go on, but lots of real people are suffering and the executive branch of the federal government plays a role in a lot of suffering.

[BYU 14]

I completely agree with JP. In terms of Covid, there would have been lots of folks impacted regardless, but a President that reacted sooner could have potentially mitigated a lot of that impact, we just don't know.

One huge reason this election is matters is the impact this President has on the social climate of America. There has never been a President in my lifetime anywhere remotely close to Trump in sowing division among the citizens he was elected to serve.

Basically, if you are not in his base, he could give two fucks about you. The presidency is a game to him and all he cares about is winning, so his massive ego can fed by his adoring masses. The way he emboldens the unstable factions on one side and infuriates those same factions on the other is just plan dangerous.

If he wins in November I fear 2020 is going to end in a much darker place than it is now.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I find the whole campaign finance system profoundly depressing.

Sure, but you have to play the game you are in, not the one you wish you were in. For months and months there has been a fear of Trump's massive warchest. Biden has seemingly powered past him.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Millions of Americans die every year and it's not knowable how many of those 200k would have died if someone else had been President, or how many more/less would have died based on their actions/inactions on other issues. We can guess at it, but we don't really know. Meanwhile those 200k constitute less than a tenth of a percent of the population. The average person will go on living their life much like they have been regardless of who wins.

Perspective is my only point here. The election matters, elections have consequences, but society & life will go on regardless of the outcome. We aren't so fragile that a single president can break the country.

Actually we can tell how many excess deaths happen under a President. And that number is unsurprisingly close to 200,000 for the year. For a country that spent like $7 trillion to avenge the deaths of 3,000 people, I'd consider it significant. Plus it isn't exactly slowing down.

I guess if your view is that 200,000 people dying, millions coming down with an illness (with many suffering greatly), tens of millions out of work, and kids falling behind in school is no big deal, it's tough to have a discussion. How many people need to die or see their lives affected before we can care? Is World War 2 casualties not a big deal now too?

[RainMaker]

Kennedy sure burned his career down quick.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Actually we can tell how many excess deaths happen under a President. And that number is unsurprisingly close to 200,000 for the year. For a country that spent like $7 trillion to avenge the deaths of 3,000 people, I'd consider it significant. Plus it isn't exactly slowing down.

I believe Brian meant how many deaths would have occurred under a different president during this same timeframe with COVID, ie. how many deaths would competant leadership have saved.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I find the whole campaign finance system profoundly depressing.

Thanks a bunch, "Citizens United."

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Radii

I believe Brian meant how many deaths would have occurred under a different president during this same timeframe with COVID, ie. how many deaths would competant leadership have saved.

We can look at every other first world country on the world and see.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It appears Biden-Harris campaign raised more than $300 million in August, which shatters the previous record of ~$200mil in a month when Obama ran in 2008.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/u...gtype=Homepage

That should buy a lot of ads.

Then why am in Ohio and not seeing any of these ads?

His team needs to get on this, chop chop.

[ISiddiqui]

I'm sure Ohio is coming. I've seen Biden ads in Georgia (though they could be national ads on CNN - which Trump also runs ads on interestingly enough).

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I know that obsessing over daily poll movement is not healthy.

But, man, I am obsessing over daily poll movement. And Biden keeps creeping down the 538 predictor. Point by point.

Distressing.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Hopefully you feel better today as Biden has increased a point .

Another point up today .

Basically, don't obsesses over daily poll movement .

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It appears Biden-Harris campaign raised more than $300 million in August, which shatters the previous record of ~$200mil in a month when Obama ran in 2008.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/u...gtype=Homepage

That should buy a lot of ads.

I hope Biden's team is spending a lot on Facebook ads. That seems to be Trump's source of strength.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I hope Biden's team is spending a lot on Facebook ads. That seems to be Trump's source of strength.

Lord knows I can't open up Facebook without seeing one

SI

[henry296]

I'm getting plenty of Trump text messages asking my opinion on riots / China. Any way to stop them?

[Kodos]

Say you love rioters and hate law and order. And that we should cozy up with China.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Lord knows I can't open up Facebook without seeing one

SI

They need to find and target the "persuadables" like Trump's campaign did in 2016.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

We can look at every other first world country on the world and see.

Actually we can't, because there is a wide variance between them. We don't know if it would have been the Italy plan, the Germany plan, the Belgium plan, the UK plan, the Sweden plan, the Norway plan, the Spain plan, the South Korea plan, or something else entirely that would have been followed. The calculus also has to include the excess deaths caused by economic restrictions, as uncomfortable as that is.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I guess if your view is that 200,000 people dying, millions coming down with an illness (with many suffering greatly), tens of millions out of work, and kids falling behind in school is no big deal, it's tough to have a discussion.

That's not my view and it's not what I said. The school and people out of work issue were happening to a large degree no matter who was president; those comparisons to other countries demonstrate that as downturns have happened the world over regardless of demographics, ideology, etc. The differences are only in degree. I literally said elections matter and have consequences; you quoted me saying it so I really don't understand what it is you are objecting to.

I was attempting to provide some balance vis a vis obsessing over daily polls movement in the worlds of another poster. I want Trump to be defeated. I'm not going to let politics control how I view life in general though, or afford it a place of primacy in my emotions/thoughts as compared to other aspects of life. That was, and is, my point.

[cuervo72]

Just..."a" plan. Pick a plan, any that involved doing anything or acknowledging the virus. That would have been better.