WW CLVIII - The Princess Bride Returns (Game Over: Wolves Win!!!)

[fontisian]

You... you used scummy properly in a sentence. <3

I see what you're talking about with Packer.

On Julio: I was trying to pressure him pretty much every day since Day 2. It's interesting that Jackal only jumped on when Zinto was in danger.

On the Wheelbarrow:
First of all, I don't think the main scum faction knew they could kill JAG, because his death looked an awful lot like something from a Rodent of Unusual Size.

Originally Posted by EagleFan

You wake to find JAG ripped to shreds like some animal attacked him. Something of unusual size, obviously.

That doesn't clear Brit at all, but it gives him an ounce of credibility in my book.

Second, it doesn't actually matter to my plan if he has the Wheelbarrow or not. He'll either pretend to pass it and get confirmed by an already cleared wolf, who we can then lynch if Brit flips scum, or he'll give to a towny. Either way, it's better than just leaving it with him and assuming he has it.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by fontisian

On the Wheelbarrow:
First of all, I don't think the main scum faction knew they could kill JAG, because his death looked an awful lot like something from a Rodent of Unusual Size.

Then like I said, Britrock already used it in a rush the other night without a conditional on JAG if the wolves couldn't talk to the ROUS. I really think he had it and doesn't anymore. He is a weaponless wolf now.

[britrock88]

Haven't used it. I'm actually fairly mystified in how I could use it to possibly prevent a wolf from performing a night action (the voting aspect is clear enough).

[Julio Riddols]

Ok guys, over my hangover from last night, over my sickness from last week, catching up with things. Probably gonna take me a while, 20 plus pages is a lot.

[EagleFan]

I guess you should be glad CF isn't playing or there would be about 40 pages to catch up on.

[Julio Riddols]

Yeah, I want to join the Free the Fox movement but that stops me.

Ok, my take on me is that I am a vanilla villager, which I will reiterate here as a refresher. I came straight out and said it early in the game because I was coming down with something, then the rest of the fam got it and we just basically sat around the house slowly dying for a few days. Planned on checking in yesterday, but got a birthday surprise and was in dispose until now.

So I am not very good at analyzing, I have skimmed over things to this point and I see we at least got one wolf, so all is not lost even with this recent most horrendous result. I'll read in greater detail tomorrow and examine the votes the best I can while also avoiding page 7.

I also need to re-read the roles so I can try to form an opinion on things.

[Julio Riddols]

Looking at where we stand and the roles, we better get it right today or it could be that all IS lost. I didn't realize the wolves had depleted us so quickly. It could be a 6-5 count right now, and a good amount of those are roled players. We have about a 50-50 shot of doing something right tonight without good analysis. Now I guess its just a matter of doing the analysis.

I do apologize for my inactivity, hopefully I can make up for that. I think a lot of late vote switchers have to be looked at from what was it, day 3?. I would be inclined to give the first person to switch a pass as a likely villager, but I think maybe half the rest of the movers were wolves.

[Julio Riddols]

I think for now I am going to vote Britrock. I tend to agree with the sentiment he is suspicious.

I am also wary of one of the scanned "cleared villagers". I don't know which yet, but I think one of them being the cunning is very plausible.

I apologize for my prior inaction too, ladies and gents. It was such a haze I completely forgot I was even playing this time around. Thankfully I have no role.

[Julio Riddols]

Just realized I apologized twice, my brain might not be out of the mucous woods yet.

[Narcizo]

Ok I'm back from no-Internetland and my word that was a cruddy day and night!

If Inigo is in the game then I think they need to use their power tonight. Not really sure about the mechanics but if Vizzy can steal his duking power then we're boned.

Don't see any win in chasing COffee or Katy. If they're the cunning then that's bad luck. If we manage to get a wolf or two (unlikely) then we can revisit them. You can say the same about me and potential conversions. So I'll try to look at the voting and what people have said and try to land on a decent candidate later. Normally better to get there by a process of elimination rather than looking at people who are wolfy, because I suck at spotting wolfishness.

[Narcizo]

Reading back and judging by the grandpa text (somewhere around #285) Inigo is in the game so I'd say use your power today and, if around at deadline, reveal immediately after to clear yourself (unless using the power reveals you in which case you don't have to bother).

[Julio Riddols]

I agree chasing a maybe on the cunning isn't the safest idea.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Your double negative is killing me JAG.

Katy: Newness is not an excuse to not posting. Even if you can only be on at the end of the day, you should try to do a little game-relevant analysis. I find it irritating when people sign and then can't be bothered to put in a little effort.

Originally Posted by fontisian

Unvote Katylied
Vote Murra5y

Given your first post why on earth did you move your vote, fontisian? Makes no sense to me. Makes me wonder about Katy being the cunning. Set her up as a likely seer-scan but shift your vote to save her when it comes to the crunch. But even that doesn't make much sense. In fact I can't think of any combination of villager-wolf that explains making those two posts so close together. I guess you could be Rous? Dunno.

[fontisian]

Narc: I didn't really see Katy as suspicious, or at least no more suspicious than anyone else, I just wanted her to talk a bit. She did start talking, so my vote did its job.

That first post you have is in responce to this post:

Originally Posted by KatyLied

I guess I'm "pulling the same shit" so to speak. I'm not quite sure why it gets under your skin so much, especially given comments others have made about participation on the boards coming back after a bit of a dip. Such comments don't really persuade me to want to participate more (flies with honey, etc., etc). It seems you'd want to foster participation by a new person rather than berate her. My 2 cents.

I disagree with the idea expressed here in principle, but by the time I responded, Katy had come in and put in a vote, which was good enough for me on day 1. I then switched to the only other candidate on a gut feeling.

[fontisian]

Agree on Inigo using his power. We should obviously still get the votes lined up. On that note:
Vote Zinto

Julio: Generally, a vanilla reveal under no pressure on day 1 means next to nothing.

[Narcizo]

OK we have 11 people to look at. Obviously that's not going to be fantastically helpful. Let's say 3 on the wolf team and ROUS, with the risk of someone being converted. If the wolves get to steer the conversion you would have to look at Coffee, Katy or myself, with murra5y an outlier. No point arguing the toss about that.


3) Narcizo - undisputed claim of Grandpa. Danny laid up a case as to how this might be a fake if the wolves knew that the power was going to be used automatically but well, I know that that's not the case.
7) Coffee Warlord - scanned as villager. Could be cunning or convertee but not worth chasing that at the moment.
8) KatyLied - Same as Coffee.
9) murrayyyyy - I didn't see what he posted in another thread but I think the post-lynch, in-game declaration that he was a vanilla is acceptable from a meta-game p.o.v. and I'm going to discount him for the time being, just to get the numbers down. Of course he could just be a never-say-die kind of wolf.
10) Julio Riddols - with nothing to go on we have to pretty much hope that Julio is a villager. If he isn't then it's going to be hard to nab him.

1) britrock88
5) fontisian
11) Lathum
14) Zinto
15) mauchow
18) PackerFanatic

So we'll limit it to these six. Should be 50/50 or better shot of hitting some sort of wolf. But we've been here before and failed miserably last game so hopefully Inigo is in the game and is one of these six. Then he should have a pretty clear idea who to whack.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

I think for now I am going to vote Britrock. I tend to agree with the sentiment he is suspicious.

This kind of vote is pretty easy to miss. You're better off sticking it on a seperate line.

[Narcizo]

Meh don't know. I did notice that fonty piggybacked Jackal's vote on Katy on day one and then moved it at the last moment. Could be that worried that two wolves would have the first two votes on the lynchee. Then again there's the worry of moving and condemning a village at lynch. 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. Don't have time to reread the thread at the moment. Will return later.

[Coffee Warlord]

Vote Zinto

Weekend didn't change my mind here.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

1) britrock88
5) fontisian
11) Lathum
14) Zinto
15) mauchow
18) PackerFanatic

So we'll limit it to these six. Should be 50/50 or better shot of hitting some sort of wolf. But we've been here before and failed miserably last game so hopefully Inigo is in the game and is one of these six. Then he should have a pretty clear idea who to whack.

I'd almost clear Packer because The Jackal tried on two days to start a run on him and changed his vote hours later because no one would join him and pointed it out both times. One I could see a wolf doing, not twice.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Also I think Jackal tried to convince me that wolves wouldn’t go for the wheelbarrow. I think they didn’t realize it would point towards a wolf. We may have two wolves in Brit and Zinto when you watch their voting records.

You're making a lot of good points (what with Jackal trying to start runs on Packers) but I'm pretty sure that if a lot of wolves had gone after the wheelbarrow then Jackal wouldn't convince people of the opposite. He'd keep quiet. Strikes me more as a wolf telling the truth. I think Jackal plays pretty similarly to me as a wolf (perhaps slightly more conservative and a lot less paranoid) but I just don't see him arguing that point if there's three wolves going after the wheelbarrow. Nor would they take out Autumn. I still tend to think that chasing the items is a blind alley. All we really know is that one out of the group of five or so who went for the powder is a wolf. Which doesn't really help.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE FONTISIAN

I think chasing the items is a little bit of a dead-end too. I think between brit, font, and Zinto we have 3 good candidates and hopefully our duke can sort it out if they don't think we have the right one on the block come deadline time.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

I'd almost clear Packer because The Jackal tried on two days to start a run on him and changed his vote hours later because no one would join him and pointed it out both times. One I could see a wolf doing, not twice.

I've looked through all of Jackal's posts and I really can't see where you're getting this from. He mentioned Packers in a bad light once but I can't see him putting a vote on Packers all game long. Mentioning someone as a potential wolf but not voting for them is a wolf-on-wolf move for the faint hearted and I really think Packers bares a closer look.

Post 473:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

four is already really too many, just have to hope one of the current candidates is a wolf so there are some forced moves here

If anything this could be seen as protecting Packers. If Brit is villager then we had four villagers on the block.

Post 725:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't have time at the moment to check histories, but I find it interesting that PF has had votes both days early and then people shifted. Just a random thought.

Is the only real mention I see of Packer.

Incidentally I can't find much of anything that Jackal said about the wheelbarrow either. Do you have the post number for that?

[PackerFanatic]

I am pretty sure I do recall him voting for me at least once, but I don't have the time to go back and dig it up.

[britrock88]

Because Narc is continuing to contribute good analysis and I want to further narrow down the number of surviving people on the wheelbarrow...

Vote Zinto

[PackerFanatic]

I think this is right...

3 Zinto - fontisian (1265), CW (1269), britrock88 (1275)
2 britrock88 - murra5y (1241), Julio (1258)
1 fontisian - PF (1272)

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Julio: Generally, a vanilla reveal under no pressure on day 1 means next to nothing.

It means a lot coming from me. I'm a pretty straight forward dude.

Anyway, I am sticking with Britrock for now. I don't see anything that shifts my thoughts in another direction at this point.

[Narcizo]

What's the case against Zinto or Britrock here? I'm failing to see why Zinto is the prime candidate - you could make an argument that his vote on Jackal day three was forced by circumstances (didn't want to pile onto DaddyTorgo, didn't want to vote Danny left him with Jackal). You can also argue that Jackal put a vote on him and then moved it. I don't think that tallies with how I remember Jackal though and it's become such a cliche/truism that a wolf tries to get an early vote on another wolf then moves it. If you're a wolf and you vote another wolf you leave it there at least until around deadline. I'm inclined to give Zinto a pass there.

I have more faith in the Zinto vote than Lathum's vote. Lathum's mo as a wolf is absolutely to vote a wolf in that position and to argue against the wolf.

[Coffee Warlord]

Zinto and Mau keep showing up as one of a small number of outliers sitting amongst a majority of known villagers. I'm utterly convinced one of the two is a wolf. Mau was originally my target for a long time, but other posts / actions have given Zinto a slight edge in my opinion (not discounting the possibility that they both are - or, given my track record the last few games, neither are).

[Narcizo]

I would like to be voting Packers here. I don't see anything to suggest that he isn't a wolf. I don't like that he basically let murra5y build up a defence based on inaccuracies without correcting them. Fair enough I let it ride but I'd like to think I'd be a bit more clued in if it was concerning me. I don't like him liking having Brit, Zinto and fontisian as our three main candidates (although I have to agree that you'd think there has to be a wolf in there somewhere). I'm kind of wondering about mau being the Rous. I don't understand why him calling bs on Jackal's reveal clears him in any way.

But I'm not sure that the village can afford not to make their votes a bloc here. We can't rely on a duking so he have to have a majority vote on a wolf.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Zinto and Mau keep showing up as one of a small number of outliers sitting amongst a majority of known villagers. I'm utterly convinced one of the two is a wolf. Mau was originally my target for a long time, but other posts / actions have given Zinto a slight edge in my opinion (not discounting the possibility that they both are - or, given my track record the last few games, neither are).

The problem with your reasoning is that they are where they are because they've made the effort to keep their votes valuable. The only really odd thing about Zinto is his day one switch to Katy before she checked in. I think Packers play looks like a very conservatively played wolf and I think that's his mo as a wolf. I don't really have much in the way of courage in my convictions though. Particularly when they go against Danny's gut read.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Jackal is the wolf

Originally Posted by fontisian

Unvote DaddyTorgo
Vote Jackal
If you are wrong about this, I will make it my mission to lynch you tomorrow.

Originally Posted by fontisian

Oh, you are fucking me.

Originally Posted by fontisian

You know exactly what I was thinking.
Unvote Jackal
Vote Chief Rum

Fontisian was very quick to react to Danny saying that Jackal is a wolf and immediately assumed that he was the seer. If Fonty knew that Jackal is a wolf that wouldn't be such a leap for her to make. Dunno, can't say I'm liking any of the three candidates much.

[Narcizo]

Fuck it. Dunno

Vote britrock

Feel like my hand is forced by the current votes out there. I'd rather vote Packers at the moment so I don't want to vote with him on fontisian. I've no idea what the case against britrock is, other than that he went for the wheelbarrow. The only wolf we know of is on the wheelbarrow - I don't think a 3 wolf on iocene 1 on wheelbarrow is out of the question.

I have to go now anyway. At the moment my vote is based on the fact that three to four wolves are easily going to sway things and get the lynch if the vote is too split.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

The problem with your reasoning is that they are where they are because they've made the effort to keep their votes valuable. The only really odd thing about Zinto is his day one switch to Katy before she checked in. I think Packers play looks like a very conservatively played wolf and I think that's his mo as a wolf. I don't really have much in the way of courage in my convictions though. Particularly when they go against Danny's gut read.

Good point there, however - it looks equally as suspicious to leave your votes on an outlier, and since we've been villager/villager the majority of the game, it's not really all that risky to bury your vote.

[Narcizo]

As a rule wolves tend not to move their votes when it's villager-villager.

[Narcizo]

Something Brit conspicuously didn't do on day one.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Because Narc is continuing to contribute good analysis and I want to further narrow down the number of surviving people on the wheelbarrow...

Vote Zinto

Not really understanding your logic here brit. You got the wheelbarrow and know you're a villager (presuming that you are). What good does narrowing down the number of people on the wheelbarrow do? This is just about the only thing that has convinced me to keep my vote on you and not take a punt on Packers.

[Narcizo]

I'm going now. Good night all.

[PackerFanatic]

Something not sitting right with the post that Narc just quoted, and font doesn't seem to be getting any push.

UNVOTE FONTISIAN
VOTE BRITROCK88

[PackerFanatic]

4 britrock88 - murra5y (1241), Julio (1258), Narcizo (1283), PF (1289)
3 Zinto - fontisian (1265), CW (1269), britrock88 (1275)

Yet to vote: KatyLied, Lathum, Zinto, mauchow

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I've no idea what the case against britrock is, other than that he went for the wheelbarrow. The only wolf we know of is on the wheelbarrow - I don't think a 3 wolf on iocene 1 on wheelbarrow is out of the question.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Not really understanding your logic here brit. You got the wheelbarrow and know you're a villager (presuming that you are). What good does narrowing down the number of people on the wheelbarrow do? This is just about the only thing that has convinced me to keep my vote on you and not take a punt on Packers.

My vote is essentially based on the logic I've seen multiple times that the group thinks there's another wolf on the wheelbarrow. I'm willing to go with that line of thinking provided that we don't lynch the villager who's safeguarding the wheelbarrow (me!). I, too, wouldn't mind a more wide-open vote to give the opportunity to look at some other folks.

---

Originally Posted by Narcizo

As a rule wolves tend not to move their votes when it's villager-villager.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Something Brit conspicuously didn't do on day one.

I missed deadline. Look to Day 3(?) to see how frantic I can get in voting when the deadline looms.

---

Here's a question -- I may have the opportunity to pass the wheelbarrow to someone if you all decide to lynch me. Who should that lucky player be?

[KatyLied]

Crazy busy day, y'all.

Vote Brit

As a placeholder - I'm hoping to do more analysis tonight but might not get to it.

[Danny]

[murrayyyyy]

5 britrock88 - murra5y (1241), Julio (1258), Narcizo (1283), PF (1289), Katylied (1292)
3 Zinto - fontisian (1265), CW (1269), britrock88 (1275)

Yet to vote: Lathum, Zinto, mauchow

With it being so quiet I'm liking the odds right now. Until that last second run where the wolves decide to pile on the wrong one.

[Coffee Warlord]

Interesting.

[Coffee Warlord]

Though brit fits in my outlook in several ways, I find it odd if people are really voting him because he said he had the wheelbarrow. WTF?

[Zinto]

I am here and catching up and yada, yada.

[fontisian]

Back and worried.

Brit: Please give the Wheelbarrow to Coffee, Narc or Katy because they're cleared. Don't tell us who, or the wolves will probably nightkill them. Or just give it to me ;D.

[Coffee Warlord]

There's no way in hell I'd use the wheelbarrow, unless we had a 100% absolutely confirmed wolf. I cannot see the point of it in the hands of a villager.

Even with only a role or two left, if we took out a villager from voting, especially since we've gotta be close to a loss at this point, we'd be fucked. It's totally a better late game wolf item.

Which is another reason I don't get why we're killing brit. If I'm a wolf with the wheelbarrow, I'da kept my mouth shut about it.

[Coffee Warlord]

Speaking of...what happens if the holder of the item is night killed?