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Old 03-25-2010, 10:18 AM   #901
The Jackal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I am leery about voting someone based of purely yesterdays history considering it wasn't a complete history.

This is true and it is possible multiple wolves didn't get a chance to vote but we do know that they would have wanted to save DV so this is the best jumping off point we have today. I would hope everyone recognizes that it wasn't a complete day though.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:20 AM   #902
Autumn
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Why is mine the most suspicious?

Because yours tied somebody else up with DV when DV was ahead. From the point that Darth got 4 votes, and the lead four people voted for someone else. Thomkal could have voted CF and put him in the lead instead. Lathum could have voted Henry and tied it up. Dubb could have voted CF and put him in the lead. You however voted CF and tied it up.

Now granted you had a 4-3-3 situation and the others didn't. But they just have better arguments at this point.

I think we have to assume that with Darth in the lead several hours before seeming deadline that one of the people who voted next for someone else was probably a wolf. As I said earlier Dubb is my next suspect

RA votes darth 4-3-2
lathum votes cf 4-3-3
bk votes cf 4-4-3
dubb unvotes henry 4-4-2
thomkal votes henry 4-4-3
dubb votes henry 4-4-4
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:21 AM   #903
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I am leery about voting someone based of purely yesterdays history considering it wasn't a complete history.

It's certainly not bulletproof, but it's the best arguemnt we have so far I think. I haven't had time to do a full color coded vote history, which might prove illuminating. Other than that the voting stretch I highlighted above is the most information we have I think.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:25 AM   #904
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Actually looking at what I wrote to BK, his vote doesn't stand out as much to me on analysis. He didn't have any choice but to tie it up. At this point maybe I would rate them all equal: BK, Thomkal, Lathum and Dubb.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:27 AM   #905
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A vote history could surely help, I'd do it but I'm posting on the road from my phone all day
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:29 AM   #906
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I will say that the following a known villager vote is a popular way for wolves to avoid having to explain a vote on someone they know is a villager, elevating my suspicion on thomkal, and did dubb say that also?
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:31 AM   #907
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FWIW, all drama aside from yesterday I stand behind my theory about Poli and the way he reacted to that theory and my vote will likely go that way unless I need to defend myself with my vote.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:35 AM   #908
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Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
I will say that the following a known villager vote is a popular way for wolves to avoid having to explain a vote on someone they know is a villager, elevating my suspicion on thomkal, and did dubb say that also?

Yes, and I found Dubb's following more suspicious. He seemed relieved to have a reason to jump back on Henry despite having just unvoted.

I posited last night the idea that maybe the wolves knew who CF was, perhaps he got a block in last night. They therefore might have wanted to get in on Henry rather than risk CF revealing and the votes moving to DV.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:37 AM   #909
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With the scroll of wrath used on Thomkal it doesn't make sense to vote him today. Better to see if his lack of a night action results in anything (and allow him the chance to defend himself).

So I'm voting between Lathum, BK and Dubb. I'm kind of talking myself into switching to Dubb, but I'll wait and see.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:39 AM   #910
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I will also say this, if Dubb is a servant Poli likely was a conversion target and vice versa.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:40 AM   #911
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Vote Poli

will change if need be
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Old 03-25-2010, 11:27 AM   #912
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
With the scroll of wrath used on Thomkal it doesn't make sense to vote him today. Better to see if his lack of a night action results in anything (and allow him the chance to defend himself).

So I'm voting between Lathum, BK and Dubb. I'm kind of talking myself into switching to Dubb, but I'll wait and see.

The question is when was he blocked from night action? Last night or tonight?

If it is tonight, and there are multiple Red Death acting in concert, then there is no clearance at all.

If it was last night, then there is some small potential clearing in my mind. But not much.
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Old 03-25-2010, 11:49 AM   #913
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I'm not going to vote Lathum, because I don't think wolf-Lathum would've attempted to bow out. He may have taken a break after but his response to everything yesterday was exactly how I would've been as a villager. As a wolf, I probably would've tried to "use" it somewhat.

That leaves me with a Henry voter (but Thomkal is frozen) or Jackal actually, who did strike me a bit as well vibe-wise. So Dubb, Autumn, and Jackal are on my short list, although I do see why people are looking BK too. This really came down to a coin toss, thus far, between dubb and Jackal.

For now, and this isn't meant to be hit and run as I'll be on this afternoon but am afraid of a repeat of the deadline moving again:

vote dubb
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Old 03-25-2010, 11:50 AM   #914
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I think he said Thomkal couldn't take an action tonight, not last night.
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Old 03-25-2010, 11:53 AM   #915
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From my point of view, I felt good about henry after the discussion on D2. I changed my vote late in the game in fact because I felt good about him. Barring new evidence I wasn't going to vote for him D3, so I didn't.

That left me two candidates: DV and CF. I felt worse about CF. I also knew I'd be around for a discussion to progress. If it had been a full day it's entirely possible I'd have changed my vote, just as I did on D2. In fact if in the end it looked like it was going to be DV and Henry I'd probably have voted for DV.
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Old 03-25-2010, 11:59 AM   #916
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Where's Poli?
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:10 PM   #917
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I'm somewhat astounded that multiple people have me on their shortlist after voting for DV yesterday

vibe votes are used when there is a lack of knowledge on someones voting history and is it wrong for me to feel like I shouldn't be near the top of peoples lists after voting DV yesterday?
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:16 PM   #918
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Originally Posted by The Jackal View Post
I'm somewhat astounded that multiple people have me on their shortlist after voting for DV yesterday

vibe votes are used when there is a lack of knowledge on someones voting history and is it wrong for me to feel like I shouldn't be near the top of peoples lists after voting DV yesterday?
Well here's the thing. If bad guys didn't know the event was coming then voting for DV does less good since there was still AMPLE time to change a vote in a close race.
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:16 PM   #919
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Well here's the thing. If bad guys didn't know the event was coming then voting for DV does less good since there was still AMPLE time to change a vote in a close race.
This is the inverse argument of why I shouldn't be killed today.
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:20 PM   #920
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I believe I had already said I was unlikely to be back pre-deadline and that my vote was sticking, but oh well, guess I can't vibe people the right way even with a good vote, I'll just have to keep guessing right
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:30 PM   #921
dubb93
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Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
I'm not going to vote Lathum, because I don't think wolf-Lathum would've attempted to bow out. He may have taken a break after but his response to everything yesterday was exactly how I would've been as a villager. As a wolf, I probably would've tried to "use" it somewhat.

Thats pretty damn meta-gamey.

Quote:
That leaves me with a Henry voter (but Thomkal is frozen) or Jackal actually, who did strike me a bit as well vibe-wise. So Dubb, Autumn, and Jackal are on my short list, although I do see why people are looking BK too. This really came down to a coin toss, thus far, between dubb and Jackal.

For now, and this isn't meant to be hit and run as I'll be on this afternoon but am afraid of a repeat of the deadline moving again:

vote dubb

Not sure how I defend myself here against a "coin toss."
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:33 PM   #922
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Yes, and I found Dubb's following more suspicious. He seemed relieved to have a reason to jump back on Henry despite having just unvoted.

I posited last night the idea that maybe the wolves knew who CF was, perhaps he got a block in last night. They therefore might have wanted to get in on Henry rather than risk CF revealing and the votes moving to DV.

If I am a wolf I vote CF. Especially if I know the day is about to end as DV implied the wolves knew and did when he returned to the thread following his death.

For better or worse the DV info is out there and I think it would be silly to ignore it at this point.
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:41 PM   #923
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
If I am a wolf I vote CF. Especially if I know the day is about to end as DV implied the wolves knew and did when he returned to the thread following his death.

For better or worse the DV info is out there and I think it would be silly to ignore it at this point.
If what dubb says is true, I simply don't see how they end the day with 0 wolves on DV. I just don't see it happening.
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:51 PM   #924
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Barkeep definitely has the most suspect vote yesterday.

Can you explain this. I guess I just don't see the vote for CF being over the top suspect as you are claiming.

How about your vote? You threw the first vote out for Henry, right after the first vote was out for DV. In fact your vote was at post 620, really close to the first DV vote and the next two votes weren't until posts 627 and 651. I would assume the wolves would have wanted a villager on the block after DV drew the first vote of the day, I'm not sure your vote doesn't look the most suspect of all the votes yesterday.
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:52 PM   #925
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I'm voting early to avoid any potential deadline shenanigans.

Vote Autumn
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:30 PM   #926
J23
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Pretty sure this is accurate for yesterday's votes:

Danny votes Darth (612)- Darth 1
Autumn votes Henry (620) - Darth 1, Henry 1
Darth votes CF (651) - Darth 1, Henry 1, CF 1
Dubb votes Henry (687) - Darth 1, Henry 2, CF 1
PB votes Darth (705) - Darth 2, Henry 2, CF 1
Jackal votes Darth (707) - Darth 3, Henry 2, CF 1
Henry votes CF (712) - Darth 3, Henry 2, CF 2
ntn votes Henry (714) - Darth 3, Henry 3, CF 2
RA votes Darth (720) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 2
Lathum votes CF (721) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 3
BK votes CF (723) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 4
Dubb unvotes Henry (725) - Darth 4, Henry 2, CF 4
Thomkal votes Henry (726) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 4
Dubb votes Henry (728) - Darth 4, Henry 4, CF 4
ECLIPSE
Poli votes Henry (731) but does not count.
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:31 PM   #927
Autumn
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Can you explain this. I guess I just don't see the vote for CF being over the top suspect as you are claiming.

How about your vote? You threw the first vote out for Henry, right after the first vote was out for DV. In fact your vote was at post 620, really close to the first DV vote and the next two votes weren't until posts 627 and 651. I would assume the wolves would have wanted a villager on the block after DV drew the first vote of the day, I'm not sure your vote doesn't look the most suspect of all the votes yesterday.

I didn't say BK's vote was "over the top suspect". I said it was the most suspicious out of the late votes off-DV. I think I've explained it well enough several times today - his vote was the only one that nearly got DV out of trouble. That makes it in my mind more likely to be a wolf save than the other ones.

I have also already said earlier in the thread that looking at it closer it actually seems less suspect, and that I now rate all those votes equal in terms of suspicion. And in fact that if anyone I consider you more suspect out of the group. Interesting that you ignored all of my posts which A, explained what I meant, B, modified my initial post, and C, cast suspicion on you.

I've also already explained my vote a couple times. I was the first vote on Henry because i needed to vote early in the day, I wanted to vote based on whoever was a lead vote getter the day before and there was nothing else to base my vote on. I'm much more worried about people who voted after DV was on the block than people who voted for the same person as was on the block the day before.
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:33 PM   #928
J23
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Has anyone been able to give an item to the scientist to prove he's in the game yet? I know this has been asked a couple times, but I don't believe anyone has said they've done it (and I passed my item n1, so I can't try it now).
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:35 PM   #929
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This is not a revenge vote, though it may seem like it. If you're reading along you'll see that I said this morning that I would most likely switch to Dubb. I'm going to go ahead and do that. Looking at his voting yesterday it just seems off. Yes, he didn't vote CF, which he could have done and saved DV. But clearly DV thought someone could have saved him and didn't. He just strikes me yesterday as wanting to make it look like he was willing to vote DV, for posterity's sake, but not actually willing to vote him.

We also have to consider the possibility that some of the bad guys have their own win conditions or the ability to gain extra powers if they take "charge" or some such thing. There might be incentive for the bad guys to let one of their own get offed.

unvote barkeep
vote dubb
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:36 PM   #930
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Has anyone been able to give an item to the scientist to prove he's in the game yet? I know this has been asked a couple times, but I don't believe anyone has said they've done it (and I passed my item n1, so I can't try it now).

I didn't get any response to that. I didn't want to waste a pass just for that if it's been done, but mark me down as planning to pass something to him tonight if no one speaks up.
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:41 PM   #931
dubb93
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Autumn seems to know alot about the bad guys.

I have information I am trying to hold close to the vest that could be used to save me if need be, but it might force a roled villager to out themselves, and I'm not sure we are in a position where we want to go down that path.
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:42 PM   #932
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Autumn seems to know alot about the bad guys.

I have information I am trying to hold close to the vest that could be used to save me if need be, but it might force a roled villager to out themselves, and I'm not sure we are in a position where we want to go down that path.

If the village wants, I will come forth with it and if it looks like the mob is going to swing my way today I will also come out with the information.
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:57 PM   #933
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Has barkeep said if he still has that scroll?
Barkeep has not.
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Old 03-25-2010, 01:57 PM   #934
The Jackal
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Why must all sports jobs be entry level sales positions, sigh
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:00 PM   #935
dubb93
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The more I think about it the more it makes sense to just come out with it since I don't think the exorcist will need to out himself to confirm this.

I received an exorcism last night. If I was evil at that time per the rules the whole thread would have known about it and I would be on the side of good now.

Rather than the Exorcist revealing himself and confirming he exorcised me last night I would say that if I am lieing the exorcist could just simply perform the exorcism on me tonight.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:02 PM   #936
ntndeacon
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Has anyone been able to give an item to the scientist to prove he's in the game yet? I know this has been asked a couple times, but I don't believe anyone has said they've done it (and I passed my item n1, so I can't try it now).

no one has been successful at passing me anything.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:02 PM   #937
dubb93
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I also have a new theory about the dark charm. I think we were on the right path with dark=night, but I think it might make me aware at night. Nevertheless it was destroyed last night. So it must just be a one time use.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:04 PM   #938
Lathum
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Why was it destroyed?
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:05 PM   #939
J23
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what do you mean by aware at night?
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:07 PM   #940
Autumn
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I'm sorry, an incentive to lose a wolf? Like what? Buy one get one free Mountain Dew? Letting one of your own go has been done in the past. Shoot, dubb and I did it a while back when our voting histories were absolute boss. It was done not to long ago with DV, if I'm not mistaken...but an incentive lose one of your own seems unlikely.

I might buy the own win conditions thing. I don't know how that would work but it sits better than incentives.

By incentive I mean something like a win condition. The newly created vampires might get a major win if they become the head vampire, or something like that. In a game this complex I think it's possible there is something like that going on with the bad guys.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:09 PM   #941
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Why was it destroyed?

Like I said. My theory is that it was destroyed b/c I "used" it last night. All I know is that it said it was destroyed in the exorcism. I'm pretty sure the dark charm works like an aware role in that if someone takes a night action against you, you will remember it.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:10 PM   #942
Autumn
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That's interesting info, Dubb. I definitely wouldn't want our exorcist to out themselves to confirm that though. And my read is that someone who's "possessed" doesn't necessarily equal all the bad guys out there (for example I assume the vampire wouldn't be considered possessed). So I'm not sure how much weight we can give that.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:11 PM   #943
J23
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The more I think about it the more it makes sense to just come out with it since I don't think the exorcist will need to out himself to confirm this.

I received an exorcism last night. If I was evil at that time per the rules the whole thread would have known about it and I would be on the side of good now.

Rather than the Exorcist revealing himself and confirming he exorcised me last night I would say that if I am lieing the exorcist could just simply perform the exorcism on me tonight.

I think this makes sense. That is unless the exorcist is not in the game.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:15 PM   #944
ntndeacon
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well we know there is a possibility of minor undead. skeletons and such. At least they were used in examples along with wolves. (I am assuming one of each type ) I assume that there are no more vampires. at least as a working hypothesis is a decent one.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:17 PM   #945
Autumn
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I'm still not clear on the how you get possessed thing but I'll look at the rules again.

My guess is it means those who are "corrupted"/converted, but I'm not sure. It could just mean "wolves" I suppose.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:18 PM   #946
hoopsguy
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OT:

Dear hoops,

Bruce says hi.

Please don't force me to "spite vote" you.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:20 PM   #947
Autumn
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well we know there is a possibility of minor undead. skeletons and such. At least they were used in examples along with wolves. (I am assuming one of each type ) I assume that there are no more vampires. at least as a working hypothesis is a decent one.

It's a good guess, though I wonder what kind of bad guys the vampire "converted" people into.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:22 PM   #948
ntndeacon
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It's a good guess, though I wonder what kind of bad guys the vampire "converted" people into.

Just a guess but the undead seems reasonable to me unless we have a bunch of Renfelds running around with no vampire to direct them.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:31 PM   #949
ntndeacon
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Also not a big concern at the moment, but we should probably look at those that were unable to vote. I think it was about 5 people, but I would need to go back and check. Also I do think that some of the so called questionable voters should be looked at as far as excorcisms and the Adept looking at them.
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Old 03-25-2010, 02:32 PM   #950
Telle
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Also not a big concern at the moment, but we should probably look at those that were unable to vote. I think it was about 5 people, but I would need to go back and check. Also I do think that some of the so called questionable voters should be looked at as far as excorcisms and the Adept looking at them.

Here's the list of those who did not get a vote in before the early deadline (and unfortunately I'm one of them):
Poli
J23
Telle
hoopsguy
KWhit
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